[COVID-19 April] I've licked things I might not ordinarily have licked

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > [COVID-19 April] I've licked things I might not ordinarily have licked

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Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

Welcome to the longest month of your life which will be followed by the longest month of your life.

# ¿ Apr 1, 2020 01:05

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# ¿ May 16, 2024 04:37

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

1 day of new data and already this model doesn't seem believable

# ¿ Apr 1, 2020 07:03

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

Platystemon posted:

It never was.

That model is the equivalent “well historically wildfires burn between this many and this many acres in the state”.

The situation on the ground is that there’s a prolonged drought, invasive beetles have left megatonnes of standing dead wood, the winds are coming at the worst possible angle and not forecast to improve, there are no natural firebreaks, and austerity has left the firefighters with a skeleton crew.

maybe the trees should try social distancing

# ¿ Apr 1, 2020 07:26

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

BeefThief posted:

was there any reason the curve starts to flatten in that model or...

The projection on that model assumes a shelter in place style social distancing with a high rate of compliance. It's the one they were touting at the presser today that yielded "only" 100 - 240,000 deaths.

# ¿ Apr 1, 2020 08:04

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

Paramemetic posted:

From last night? No, because they have changed and I didn't write down the poo poo I ran.

From now? Yes.

Presently in the US there are 190,022 cases confirmed. Of those, 4102 have died.
4102/190022=0.02158 or 2.2% mortality. It's not perfect because we know more people have died at home or without confirmation, but it's probably in the ballpark.

In the US, there are 178,646 confirmed cases active right now. Of those, 4,576 are severe/critical.
4576/178646=0.0256 or 2.6% hospitalized. There are almost certainly many more cases that have not been tested, but because the US testing policy many places is "has shown up to the hospital," it's unlikely the untested cases are severe enough to be seen at a hospital.

Many of the cases that are not hospitalized are people who have called family doctors or been seen at urgent cares or so on and been told "yeah it's the bad poo poo, stay home and call 911 if you can't breathe."

There is likely a good chunk of those who were tested who weren't admitted at the time but will be admitted later as they deteriorate. It's probably not gonna be 17.5% of those people.

Globally, the numbers on Worldometer look like this:

That's basically the trend. 5% need hospitalized. 20% of the hospitalized cases die.

There's nothing that suggests 20% of people need hospitalization.

wow this is some amazing armchair epidemiology you should post it on medium.com

# ¿ Apr 1, 2020 17:50

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

Applesnots posted:

I am in middle TN and the remaining rural hospitals are horribly unprepared for this. They just send everyone to Vanderbilt or St. Thomas. All the rest are now for profit and will sue the poo poo out of you if you can not pay or have no insurance. poo poo is going to be wild.

I went to the Smoky Mountains last summer and all I could think of over and over was "holy poo poo everyone here is so obese"

# ¿ Apr 1, 2020 19:47

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

+1040 deaths today already. The government's new model had the uncertainty interval at 806-970.

# ¿ Apr 2, 2020 00:35

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

TheLemonOfIchabod posted:

Was this for the 100K to 240K uncertainty interval overall?

Yes

# ¿ Apr 2, 2020 00:41

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

Definitely broke my brain a bit thinking about how much covid has affected singers and musicians from famous people to choir groups.

So much of our social bonding is based around breath. It makes sense that physical distancing is ridiculously effective at stopping a respiratory disease like covid. But on the other hand, churches that refuse to close will kill more and more people with every hymn.

# ¿ Apr 2, 2020 04:46

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

We're in the first quarter still and everyone (including me) is already lusting for lovely fast food. Good luck!

# ¿ Apr 2, 2020 05:51

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

Death Stranding except you're delivering Arby's

# ¿ Apr 2, 2020 05:53

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

pls quarantine gun chat until someone figures out the best round to shoot a single-stranded RNA virus with.

# ¿ Apr 2, 2020 18:55

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

Dustcat posted:

here's an interesting article saying the toilet paper shortage might not just be due to hoarding but because people having to poop at home means they actually need more tp now

https://twitter.com/katienotopoulos/status/1245771832353062912

I follow farming twitter a bit and there has been a similar phenomenon happening there. Lots of crops and dairy getting trashed because it was destined for hospitality supply chains that evaporated. Our logistics are so hosed lol.

# ¿ Apr 2, 2020 20:47

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

Ill Peripheral posted:

lol no poo poo. This dude was getting canned immediately. Just looking at it from a security standpoint, can't have the Commander of some of your most strategic assets publicly throw it out there that he's losing control of the situation, for the world to see. I didn't get this one.

Makes you wonder exactly how dire the situation on the ship is and how long their pleas for help had been ignored.

# ¿ Apr 2, 2020 22:36

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

SKULL.GIF posted:

because there's always like a couple dozen newcomers to CSPAM who are bloviatingly flabbergasted I guess I have to meet them halfway

I don't mean that I'm looking down at others, I just mean that after over two months of going "holy poo poo this is going to gently caress everything up" I've kind of reached a zen acceptance state of things. everything is going to get hosed up. if corona gets me, corona gets me. if the usa balkanizes, the usa balkanizes. glee, awe, shock, horror, terror isn't going to change a single thing about any of these events. I wrap the bandana around my face before I go out for groceries for calories to sustain my continued existence because all the masks are sold out and it's the least I can actually possibly do.

everyone else is like "OH MY gently caress!", they'll all get to the same place eventually. this isn't a short-lived crisis, this is our new reality.

# ¿ Apr 3, 2020 04:30

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

Where do supply chain and logistics people hang out n chat on the internet

# ¿ Apr 4, 2020 02:23

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

lol I just had the most grand realization today.

Wuhan brought the R0 from something like 3 to 0.3. They got it way loving under 1. Exponential processes work the same way on the decay side as on the explosion side; a number like 0.3 is a total fire extinguisher.

But what is America going to do? We're going to loving wreck the economy while a significant lack of individual cooperation keeps the R0 at something like 1.2.

The growth rate will be the perfect size where we stay overwhelmed and flailing, but things keep slowly worsening as we slowly slide to herd immunity. It will last exceedingly long, like slowly pulling the band-aid off to cause as much pain as possible.

lmao

# ¿ Apr 4, 2020 03:13

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

Admiral Ray posted:

It's rare that we get to experience math this viscerally.

# ¿ Apr 4, 2020 03:54

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

robot roll call posted:

they'll just keep moving the goalposts to whatever the next biggest annual killer is

oh yeah? well communism has killed more people than the corona virus

# ¿ Apr 4, 2020 04:07

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

Torpor posted:

dude where you been the last 2 months? Our country was destined to fail at this task because the necessary impetus that could convince people to stop the spread of the disease was the loss of human life, but the only way to stop the spread of the disease was to cause unacceptable economic damage. As someone said before this virus is like a black light and the United States is a seedy hotel room.

There's a more particular point here about having an R0 between 1 and 2 while we already have a lot of infected and we're already trying as hard as we can to poo poo down. We're taking the path that essentially maximizes the joint combination of economic damage and death toll because we're a special breed of a demon cracker nation.

# ¿ Apr 4, 2020 05:53

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

Taintrunner posted:

https://twitter.com/JimDMiller/status/1246056481054736387

we need the eugenics illuminati to save us

A hundred geniuses in the command chamber all solving the most unbelievably hard progressive matrices. Patterns our feeble minds can't even begin to comprehend. Somewhere at the far end of the table, a man coughs.

# ¿ Apr 4, 2020 20:16

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

The public sentiment is starting to turn against golf on The Villages forums. This is like the waffle House index for boomers. poo poo's getting real.

# ¿ Apr 5, 2020 04:27

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

mod sassinator posted:

if you live in washington get a gun now, food riots a couple weeks away

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/04/washington-state-food-bank-shortages-revealed

fire bullets until your belly is full

# ¿ Apr 5, 2020 05:25

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

Inner Light posted:

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

I usually check here and it mentioned to look on April 4 for an update... but they didn't make one.

I like that it used to have a message saying to check back in on April 4th for an update. Then they didn't update it and took down the message altogether.

# ¿ Apr 5, 2020 06:41

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

https://twitter.com/HFBondsTrader/status/1246685670187372550

Is that a scuba bcd

# ¿ Apr 5, 2020 07:58

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

charity rereg posted:

MA #s are way down for today. Not sure I believe such a drop in new cases, 1300 > 750 or so... but as a state that sort of had itself together I am hoping

Also found my emergency stash of 2x N95 masks. We used them a few times to spread diatomaceous earth when our cat got fleas a few years ago but they're in pretty new condition, certainly better than reused healthcare masks. Sitting pretty in my goon castle.

The virus chills out on Sunday because it is Christian.

# ¿ Apr 5, 2020 21:04

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

Stefan Prodan posted:

whats ecmo

Not much what's extra corporeal membrane oxygenation with you dogg

# ¿ Apr 5, 2020 21:34

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

Stefan Prodan posted:

so does that mean they can save like super rich people no matter what if they have access to one of these?

I thought there's like a bunch of cases where there just flatly isn't anything they can do for you

Most of the people put on a ventilator die anyway and I doubt being hooked up to an ECMO machine is any different. It's a last ditch effort. There are also not many of these devices to go around.

# ¿ Apr 5, 2020 21:36

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

Zyme posted:

lol what the gently caress

Gonna own if this just freely jumps back and forth between felines and humans.

# ¿ Apr 5, 2020 21:45

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1246900626606510081

What does a tiger with a dry cough sound like? I don't think I've ever heard any of my cats cough.

# ¿ Apr 5, 2020 21:50

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

euphronius posted:

how does trump not have corono

It's called genes!

# ¿ Apr 5, 2020 22:14

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

I hope bojo spends three weeks on a ventilator and comes out alive and unable to breathe without assistance for the rest of his life in a nursing home.

# ¿ Apr 6, 2020 00:53

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

Jewel Repetition posted:

What's this thread's stance on the veracity of the numbers China's reporting

Pretty similar data quality to a lot of other countries, probably has some of the same systematic biases like undercounting infection and death totals.

# ¿ Apr 6, 2020 03:57

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

I live downtown and it is so fuckin quiet outside atm. Nothing to hear but the hum of HVAC bouncing off concrete.

# ¿ Apr 6, 2020 05:28

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

Rauros posted:

indoor cats take effort, so they don't become like stressed zoo cats. when people are adamant about their cats going outside, i recommend a bird be safe collar, but in typical cat owner fashion, no one ever uses it. sad, they're really missing out:

https://www.birdsbesafe.com/

Pet owner: Why is my indoor cat so crazy?

Indoor cat: please shake the toy stick oh god I need to play so badly oh gently caress it's so boring here

# ¿ Apr 6, 2020 19:58

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

The Atomic Man-Boy posted:

I thought that if you got a ventilator, you'd get oxygen for long enough to recover. Is that wrong?

Depends on if your body can grab enough oxygen for all of your organs not to shut down anyway. Oh and you better hope a cytokine storm doesn't cause cardiac arrest. Oh and if you're on one for long enough your brain just kinda starts forgetting how to breathe.

# ¿ Apr 7, 2020 00:02

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

Our aerogarden crapped out so much basil we got a large hydroponic grower last month with 30 slots on it to see what the next level is like. Not too long until I can grab all the important hot pot veggies off of it.

# ¿ Apr 7, 2020 00:34

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

BrutalistMcDonalds posted:

the british P.M. is near death, there's been a mutiny aboard a U.S. aircraft carrier and they're digging mass graves in new york

i might have a drink 2nite

I was just drinking tea, but when you put it that way I might have to get out the tequila.

# ¿ Apr 7, 2020 04:27

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

death to brand twitter

# ¿ Apr 7, 2020 05:34

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# ¿ May 16, 2024 04:37

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

Tei posted:

We are in the "and now we wait" period of a quarantine.
I don't think theres much to talk about just now.

The curve is starting to flatten, so it's time to reopen some basic essentials like churches and beaches.

# ¿ Apr 7, 2020 07:56

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > [COVID-19 April] I've licked things I might not ordinarily have licked

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