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Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?

natural selection is back on the menu, boys

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Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?

Bruce Hussein Daddy posted:

Georgia is like the state horniest to pretend the roni is gone. Look how red those mfer are lamo


i'm in a college town in georgia, and it's a lost cause. yesterday, when i had to carefully run through town to connect my isolated trail loop, a bunch of road runners were running in tight groups without a care in the world.

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?

Nothus posted:

The good news is that robust T and B cell immune responses correlate with virus clearance, which means serology testing is an accurate measure of immunity. It also means those vaccines directed against the spike protein (which is most of them) have a good chance of success.

I really want an accurate antibody test. I had covid toes over a month ago with weird tingling in my head. No other symptoms. I had 4 contacts, and no one got sick. I'm hoping my immune system killed it off without it gaining hold and replicating and causing permanent damage. I'm a mostly vegetarian ultrarunner, so I might be a tad healthier than the average american my age (38), and I usually clear infections overnight. I'm still acting like I'm susceptible, and it would be a major peace of mind to take that worry away (mostly because my roommate doesn't care about any of this, and I've never seen him wash his hands coming into the house), but there's no way to know I'd have long term immunity without serial titers.

edit: also, post-docing in georgia...get me out of here!

Rauros has issued a correction as of 23:50 on May 4, 2020

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?

Mayor Dave posted:

RIP facetoucher cat, hopefully it doesn't get you too bad

is there any data yet on the sensitivity of the covid antigen test? it sure seems like dogshit.

edit: i mean with already having symptoms, you'd expect the virus to already be detectable.

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?


commence rug sweeping operation

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?

Pyrus Malus posted:

has anybody posted about how the IHME model, the one that's ridiculously insanely optimistic and the one people were getting the "60k by august" figure from, just quietly more than doubled their death predictions by august 4th? lmao it's at like 135k right now and I still think that's considered some realass optimism

it was posted yesterday. i laughed at the CEA tweet saying how the IMHE model has fit the data so well when there's like three different curves superimposed with goalposts moving to the right for the peak and decline. the model is reactionary and not predictive...worthless.

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?


thanks for posting this, but eh...they should keep testing more days out.

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?

uggy posted:

they probably will I don’t think you’re pointing something out that they haven’t thought of

No, in the preprint this figure was generated as a "gee whiz" after clearing people for plasma donation, so there was no plan to have extended testing.

quote:

Participants with positive PCR swabs and antibodies were asked 112 to return for PCR testing at least three days after initial PCR test so they could be referred for plasma donation once the virus had fully cleared. Given the frequent serial detection of SARSCoV-2 by nasopharyngeal PCR using three-day increments, on April 3rd 114 , 2020, we began to ask 115 participants to return at least ten days after the last positive PCR for re-testing.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.30.20085613v1.full.pdf+html

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud posted:

Americans have no culture other than mindless consumption and would rather catch a painful disease and die than be prevented from eating out.

gustatory pleasure is like the laziest loving way to feel good.

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?


lol, like wildlife doesn't have thousands of viruses locked and loaded to afflict humanity with

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?

ymgve posted:

my experience with insects are that they are hard shells filled with goo

are there actually insects with edible solid flesh like shrimp

yeah, you want muscle. crustaceans get good muscle mass in their appendages and abdomens by getting larger in buoyant water. insects are constrained in size, so cricket legs aren't nice and meaty.

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?

power word- Jeb! posted:

gotta put em down once they got a taste for human flesh

gators hunger for all flesh by default. the trick is not going up to pet one.

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?

indigi posted:

how do you even respond to the argument that case numbers will only go up due to increased testing capacity

the number of cases will go up, but prevalence should remain roughly the same (ignoring opening everything back up increasing cases) because of negative test results.

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?

euphronius posted:

strong immune systems kill you tho

strong immunity is probably responsible for asymptomatic cases, because the virus gets neutralized (covid toes) before making it to the lungs to replicate like crazy. a cytokine storm is more a disregulation of the immune response that sends it into overdrive.

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?

Steve Yun posted:

one way labyrinth actually sounds kinda fun

lol, on my bimonthly aldi run last week, i told three people in consecutive rows that they were going the wrong way and pointed to the one way sign. by the fourth row, i gave up.

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?

kater posted:

why wouldn’t the curve go down

depends on the rate of susceptibles converted to infected. unless this virus is infecting everyone asymptomatically already, there are a lot susceptibles to burn through with relaxing of social distancing that doesn't match that optimistic curve.

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?

MadJackal posted:

Yep, all those confirmed COVID-positive patients dying from a documented spiral of worsening hypoxia sure had to have their charts finessed to be labeled dead from COVID you dense motherfuckers.

https://twitter.com/ProudBhakt5/status/1258671325800837120?s=20

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?

Flesh Forge posted:

Interstitial Edema is a pretty good forum name

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?


georgia started reopening on the 24th

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?

mastershakeman posted:

Turns out using the terminology around "flatten curve" was dumb as hell because idiots who want to reopen can just say oh hey deaths stopped rising , we can just say 3k dead a day is fine and reopen , the curve is flat!

public health people were trying really hard to save lives, but they underestimated american stupidity :(

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?

i think they were trying to ration masks at the beginning, but yeah, switching messaging doesn't work with americans.

edit:

etalian posted:

Flatten the curve is also a inherently dumb strategy when places like Taiwan and South Korea showed how you could suppress new infections with a innovative consistent public health strategy.

thanks to the federal government, public health officials were handed a raw deal, and were trying to work with what they had, which wasn't much.

Rauros has issued a correction as of 15:04 on May 9, 2020

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?


that doesn't look pleasant with or without the virus

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?


ugh, how dare scientists to not have perfected time travel

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?

my grandma celebrated her 100th birthday yesterday, and her friends and relatives stood 20 - 30 feet away from her in a big semi-circle with social distancing while singing happy birthday. the video had a very science fiction vibe to it.

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?


sorry, sir. roll up your sleeve. for the good of society, you are being euthanized. you gave it your best shot, but obviously, it's not working for anyone.

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?

Ursine Catastrophe posted:

lol when this does the opposite and wipes out the people with OP immune systems, leaving everyone else as easy pickings for whatever the next thing that pops out of the melted arctic permafrost

nah, people with strong immune systems seem to be the asymptomatic infections. the pulmonary cytokine storm is a dysregulation of the immune system that sends it into overdrive. it's not inherently stronger than average.

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?


daszak is like the founding father of emerging infectious diseases. my whole lab has him cited in the introduction of our dissertations.

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?

Knight posted:



I feel like putting this up with highlights and arrows pointing to the 2 week asymptomatic period, but it would be naive to assume the intended audience can read

this is rad, thanks!

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?

is opening it up the easy mode cheat on plague inc?

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?


yikes, the susceptible pool is huge...this will simmer indefinitely.

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?

Thoguh posted:

Does undetected mean they never had a positive test or that they didn't have symptoms? Because given how hard it is anywhere to get a test that seems like an important distinction.

it took some parsing, but i think they mean that 5% with antibodies from study means about 2 million people would have been infected, but the country only reports 228k positive pcr tests. about 30% of positive people sampled from the study did not have clinical signs.

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?

true hardships

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/zoom-parties-virtual-gatherings_n_5ebd7063c5b635d6a6d160fc

Let’s Just Admit That A Zoom Party Isn’t Really A Party

quote:

Virtual parties strip away the best parts of the form. There is no room for mingling or side conversations or lingering eye contact that could become more. You can’t pop in and out unnoticed, or move seamlessly on from a conversation that has run its course over to another small group in which you might fare better. Even music operates on a lag. Without the opportunity for happy chaos, a “party” begins to resemble a large virtual classroom with a rotating set of lecturers. It becomes just another task, one that we presumably have endless time for now that plans are a thing of the past, but that feels oppressive nonetheless.

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?

etalian posted:

Shingles is a similar virus that hides out the nervous system and can emerge when the immune system starts weakening.

eh, that's a herpesvirus latent phase. coronaviruses don't have mechanisms for that in their life cycle that we know of. bats can be persistently infected, but bats are weird with viruses.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4369385/

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?


That's interesting. LDH is used to inform owners of a dog's survival prognosis after some emergency surgeries.

MorrisBae posted:

So if the virus doesn't cause those 3 markers to be off, and instead it takes advantage of people with those markers - can't we just have everyone get a full blood panel and point out "hey you're going to die if you get this" to the ones who have those markers?

That seems like an easy stopgap in places where testing is unreliable/unavailable

The biomarkers changed in response to the disease, so the virus already has to be wreaking havoc on the body.

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?

MorrisBae posted:

Ok let's look at it another way

How do you improve those 3 markers?

Marker 1: Lactic Dehydrogenase


https://www.healthline.com/health/lactate-dehydrogenase-test


Marker 2: Lymphocyte


https://www.nhlbi.nih.gov/node/4088


Marker 3: High-Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein


https://labtestsonline.org/tests/high-sensitivity-c-reactive-protein-hs-crp

Biomarkers often don't have utility for therapeutic targeting. These are like the tracks left behind from the covid tiger that inform you of the dire situation. You can try filling in the tracks, but the tiger that's nearby can still eat you.

LDH is a leakage enzyme, so altering the small amount of natural extracellular levels won't change the infection destroying cells and releasing large amounts.

Lymphocytes are being consumed from the infection, so low levels likely mean they're dying in the covid wars.

CRP is one of many inflammatory proteins, so targeting it by itself won't do much. Inflammation causes a lot of collateral damage, so keeping it under control while allowing it to clear the virus is a fine line to walk. Bats carry lots of viruses because they tolerate their presence and don't run an effective immune response against them.

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?

Mr Hootington posted:

Today is zero deaths.

nailed it!

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?


ain't putting that poo poo in me

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?

Mayor Dave posted:

what the gently caress indeed, what would even be the point

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Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?

uhoh, 5-18 was supposed to be the lowest low point if the decreasing trend was continuing

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