Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
Which horse film is your favorite?
This poll is closed.
Black Beauty 2 1.06%
A Talking Pony!?! 4 2.13%
Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor 117 62.23%
War Horse 11 5.85%
Mr. Hands 54 28.72%
Total: 188 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
  • Post
  • Reply
Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Jaxyon posted:

The cost is measured in dollars, and the benefit is measured and dollars and lives.

Seems like some simple math. Unless you count dollars as more important than lives.

If dollars were so useless to life, why do aid agencies keep asking for more of it if? The cost of China's full strength lockdowns are definitely far more than some rich peoples bank accounts being less.

Some of the all-in comments are treating covid as the only problem in the world and that things like Malaria (a disease that kills more children under five each and every year than covid did at its height) immunization development/trials didn't get put on hold because of covid lockdowns and travel restrictions. Happily, West Africa soon lost full lockdown as a methodology, international travel become possible and they were therefore able to run trials that show >75% efficacy just recently (previous best was like ~30% only recommended for broad use end of last year). Hopefully in a few years, it will be fully approved and production 100's of millions of doses saving hundreds of thousands of <5 year old children's lives every year can get happening none too soon.

This number go up is children's lives but the hate for some old rich wanker having a big boat dominates thinking so much sometimes that people lose sight that lockdowns are a very big impact. Now that covid treatment understanding and vaccine situation has improved dramatically, that impact is increasingly outsize to the benefit. I.e. full strength lockdowns are increasingly unsustainable simply because they will kill and cause long term harm to more people than they will save.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Does Nth Korea have a young population? One of the big drivers is average age and in places such as Burkina Faso, life is hard enough that a few old people passing due to covid is barely noticeable amongst all the other causes of premature death.

In a place that is as heavily and routinely controlled as Nth Korea, I would not be surprised they are able to snuff out any outbreaks until the more virulent strains arrive at least.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Xombie posted:

How would Covid had spread to North Korea from the US? I'm confused about your point.

Dennis Rodman?

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015


I think the implication is that that a pandemic level where it was seen as completely fine and normal to support sterilisation of shoes and tins of food upon re-entering a house where your kids have been locked away for months have passed by. That yes, people are getting sick and some even dying (alongside other preventable deaths such as obesity, smoking, adventure sports, etc) but the absolute quality of life destruction (through direct disease effects and the control measures required) that was in effect in the before vaccine times is behind us. Not light switch "we all lived happily ever after" but "the worst has happened and the effects will linger but life goes on".

Speaking of wishing all the strong NPI measures not going away, where are we at with monkey paw virus? It is starting to cause anxiety even here in W. Africa.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

For me the people sticking to arguing for all relatively harsh* measures that theoretically could reduce covid must be enacted and motivating level of action with frankly absurd hyperbole (all resistance to any NPI is only to appease Capital) are people that like the concept of "War on Drugs" - ie, absolute strong arming instead of nuanced, flexible and sensitive measures with selected strong measures as required that are rolled back at the first opportunity. The War on Drugs literally done more harm than not doing anything at all. China's absolute adherence to similar for covid is likely going to cause more excess deaths in the medium to long term per capita than what is going to be achieved in Australia, New Zealand or Sweden over the same timeframe.

*admittedly less silly than the spraying tinned food and your shoes when getting home to your kids locked inside for literal months that was de rigor at the start, remember when OOCC was collectively yelled down for saying it was stupid and not sustainable for the length of time Covid was going to be around? haha good times.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

enki42 posted:

I can empathize with the rest of your post (although I think calling "wear a mask when you're in a grocery store" harsh is a bit much), but I'd like to hear what you think the mechanism for these excess deaths is going to be.

COVID was a top 3 cause of death in most places in 2020 and 2021, and is on track so far for 2022 (What the fall looks like will determine this, but I think that's anyone's guess at this point). I could see the argument that lockdowns and restrictions could cause some amount of deaths, but for it to be one of the top 3 causes of death in a country seems implausible.

Some NPIs I fully get behind and of course education is strongly supported. I wear a mask whenever outside or near other people and they are still insisted upon if you to fly a plane and to go into a mall here (in West Africa). I don't wind myself up about people not wearing a mask but I think people can go shop the outside shops or catch a bucka bucka if they don't want to use a mall or plane with a mask.

For the China vs Sweden et al comparison, it likely can go one of two ways;
~ China retains harsh lockdowns every few months in one city or another (at least at land borders if they totally lockdown air travel). Deprivation, poor medical outcomes, increasing poverty each and every time. Incurring negative effects each time worse than the lingering "overhead" of covid in a "living with it" country such as New Zealand, Sweden, Senegal is. Eventually overtaking the combined excess deaths and worse effects that all those countries incurred at the start before vaccines and during the transition from without covid to endemic covid. This may take a decade or more, maybe a century.
~ China transitions from without covid to endemic covid, the pain of which is (now, due to vaccination already being widespread) not going to be significantly lessened by the delay they are winning by the ongoing sporadic lockdown economy. Once broadly in the community, it will still get to the old peoples homes (for eg) in the end and a lot of those; even with the vaccine, are not going to survive.

Of course, there is the option of a newer better more strongerer vaccine or treatment can be developed that eliminates most negative impacts, stops the disease in its tracks and China is happy to use it, in which case I am wrong and China looks the best but I think that unlikely.

An important point about the controls and the deaths they cause, the causes of death in a covid free country is not "due to covid control measures" but spread across a broad number of categories that were directly from controls or from the general reduction in the economy. Eg, "malaria" (development of treatments got put on hold due to covid), "respiratory disease" (efforts to transition to non-emitting tech got put back due to the restricted economy), "violence" (as poorer parts of the world (or China I bet) have suffered the worse from economic contraction and this reflects in crime, civilian breakdown and disorder), etc.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

James Garfield posted:

It also depends on whether you include failing to vaccinate old people (and intentionally using inferior vaccines, but I think 3 dose Sinovac is still okay) as part of the overall Chinese covid response. The pandemic is clearly not over in China in the sense that uncontrolled spread there would be really bad; it's not an entirely fair comparison but Hong Kong has almost as many deaths per capita as the lowest US states despite having zero covid until 2022.

A difference between China and Australia is that China still has lots of unvaccinated high risk people who have never been exposed to covid and Australia does not (and that partly explains why China still does lockdowns, but I don't think they are doing much to vaccinate those people either :shrug:)

I completely agree with all of this and is part of the reason of why I suggest that kicking the can down the road with 0-covid is worse than biting the bullet, putting a nominated end date on zero some months in the future and pushing to vaccinate with the best that is available. You don't get vaccinated by then? sorry brah, you are collateral damage.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

hekaton posted:

You are suggesting a course of action that would lead to literally millions of deaths and an order of magnitude more newly disabled persons, you realize? 'Kicking the can down the road' is also a pretty short sighted way of viewing things, as delaying an outbreak increases the amount of therapeutic interventions available. If you can delay the death of a 70 year old by a year, and this allows them to receive newly-available paxlovid and survive an otherwise lethal infection, than that delay did a lot more than kick the can down the road.

As far as I know we're not gripped in a cholera outbreak anywhere in the United States, but we're still not making GBS threads directly into our freshwater supplies. NPI mandates have been introduced on a permanent basis throughout history, there is no reason to think implementing respiration/ventilation based NPIs would be impossible.

see, here you go with the frankly absurd hyperbole I was referring to in a previous post.

China has already significantly vaccinated its population. If it was more serious it could go through and booster everyone with Pfizer which might take six months or so as well as ramping up Paxlovid production (although Paxlovid does not change the point I am making either way). Since vaccination of the vast majority off the population is the assumption, it is most assuredly not "millions' of more deaths versus continually locking down indefinitely, The whole world is around a million deaths per billion people since the start and that includes the majority that died without a vaccine, the majority of which would have survived if the vaccine was available to them sooner. China is a bit over a billion so the theoretical maximum would be under a million surely (in the short term, over 100 years, it could be millions; idk, but deaths due to the significantly constrained economy over the same timeframe would be far worse).

On the magnitude of more disabled people versus deaths, you will need to cite sources as anecdotally, I have heard of people I know being really messed up and taking a while to recover. I have quite a number of people I know who perished. I have not heard of a person now on disability due to a covid infection or profoundly changed life experience long term (I have a knee reco from sport injury and it will always be less strong but I don't consider myself disabled). Maybe the multiples of profoundly long term ill per death are concentrated in different circles than I run in but I doubt it and frankly, I again believe it is hyperbole. This disease kills you or it doesn't as a general rule. It is not like polio (for eg).

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

droll posted:

Source?
North Korea has a significantly constrained economy, but no covid. It's life expectancy, live births per thousand, children surviving to five years old, etc all the stats are firmly in favour of having a less constrained economy like South Korea. If South Korea got Covid in the 80's, I bet you a penny to a pound that it's well being stats would still outstrip North Korea's covid free over the same time period.

Doing the lockdowns intermittingly for a 100 years is going to constrain the Chinese economy. There is no mistaking that. The people arguing for China style covid zero are not arguing that it wont severely impact the economy, they avoid that by implying that the economy is only to put dollars into capitalists pockets. Again and again they ignore that the biggest part of the economy is spent providing bread, shelter and medicine for the world.

A reduced economy is reduced bread, shelter and medicine and for the more marginal, the incremental difference is huge. China has a big chunk living in this range. Remember when India done the big lockdown which included kicking the migrant workers out into the street, hundreds of km from home, essentially no public transport to get home and no food or water to make the trip walking? Helped prevent covid in rich people? Maybe? Help reduce overall suffering with only the economy as the loser? Not so much.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

droll posted:

Ok so you have nothing to back up the claim that what china has been doing for 2 years will kill more Chinese people than letting it rip. Thanks for clarifying.

again with the frankly absurd hyperbole that we keep coming back to.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

enki42 posted:

The big missing piece here is whether China's restrictions will be anywhere near comparable to the economic constraints North Korea is under. That certainly hasn't been the case for the past 2 years, China isn't some completely isolated nation with extremely limited flows of goods or anything.

You could make the argument that there's economic disruption from COVID even with an absolute lack of restrictions. Assuming waves continue and are quite frequent, we're probably looking at periods every 6-12 months where economies without restrictions are affected by mass absences from sick workers. That certainly seemed to be the case with the Omicron wave.

Your argument is basically "North Korea restricts their economy and their economy is bad, so any restrictions whatsoever on an economy are bad".
I am fully supportive of vaccines, personally wear masks and is part of my job to drive down cases of Covid, which I embrace. It is literally a company KPI that is reported all the way up to the CEO (covid cases in the last week, per work team, along with Malaria). We have three company mascots, one for safety, one for malaria and now one for Covid. We take out community ads and toolbox talk covid and malaria multiple times a week. I am all on board with that because the imposition is reasonable and effective at not only helping reduce covid but other disease as well. It started with covid but we have continued temp checking all workers prior to entering the workplace and you must go to the clinic then home and take a sick day if you have a high temp. Non-negotiable with the worker or his supervisor/manager that was depending upon that worker (which I don't know of happening - in any event but it was made clear at the get go it was going to be non-negotiable). We have unlimited sick days with a Dr's ticket which our clinic provides. I also said before that I don't really care about non-mask wearers like others that get bent all out of shape but I also don't care if you can't go into a mall or fly a plane without one (still required here and enforced) because you can get your goodies elsewhere or take a bus.

I have not argued against "any restrictions whatsoever" that is absurd hyperbole. I am coming in after we read a post talking about the extant to which China is going to try and stay covid-0. My argument is that cheerleaders for that approach are under-estimating the population health impacts of that course of action.

Yes, I didn't go into how relative North Korea's economic contraction due to international sanctions compares to indefinite and sporadic lockdowns in China would be. It is a PhD probably and not my intent to say which is worse (although I would guess international sanction on food importing N. Korea). Also unsaid is that most countries and populations could wear one or two locked in your house for months event and bounce back after but it is likely that each lockdown will cause even more harm each time, not less. Melbourne was mostly on board with the first few but even the biggest proponents were getting pretty fatigued within a year or two of them.

Agreed covid is causing harm, whether directly because it is in the country long after the worst or from avoiding it trying to keep it away. That is unavoidable. Measles caused disruption to North Americans long after the original burn through of the population. The moment covid got to a developing country with a significant population, some level of harm for the entire world was locked in. It become at that point a multi-disciplinary effort manage as best an administration can with as much science possible and ideally not going in with the thought that it can be fixed if we just smash the nail with the hammer hard enough or if you put your head in the sand, it will go away. That is part of the fascination because it is a very complex problem at global scale as well as being impactful upon all of us at a personal level.

Final point, North Korea is used as an illustrative example of how the economy being held back over decades will result in poor demographic outcomes (ie, the economy is important) and we get "but they have covid now!". I mean c'mon.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

And to be fair, from the article linked, it was not a sharpie on a line but a lot of research that defined a specific size at which particles deeply penetrate the lungs (5 um being the effective size for mucus membrane filtration) which was important for TB because TB needs to get all the way to the bottom of the lungs to be infectious.

In summary, the issue is both bigger (droplet vs aerosol was based on a completely different disease) and smaller (covid behaves like a droplet nearly the entire time so the point is academic) - masks do work for covid, they don't work for measles.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Blitter posted:

What on earth are you talking about? Cloth masks or something?

I'm on about how breathless the thread has been about the travesty that some scientist so many decades ago based his aerosol/droplet research upon mucus membranes for a pathogen (TB) that requires deep penetration into the lungs. Yes, there is a scale from big droplet to small droplet (as opposed to two distinct behaviors), no the WHO was not wrong to recommend to treat covid like a droplet based disease that it for the most part behaves like.

CDC and WHO are not there to save individuals, they are there to make demographic recommendations.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

In fairness, Freebooter asked if they really thought it was making a difference wearing a mask outdoors away from crowds (I guess assuming and teasing out people having an irrational fear of covid through misunderstanding risk). No-one has said he couldn't wear a mask if he likes.

The guidance on masks is to change them each time they get damp through any means including breath and only use them once so I am not sure how well the rider is sticking to safe practices as opposed to a fashion one - again a person can wear a comfy pair of trackpants to Walmart if they think it will help them make better buying decisions if they like but as the conversation then sparked frankly absurd claims that long covid is likely or that in a lifetime, the average person in the US can plan on not catching covid, it seems for at least some people, the decision was not a fashion one but an attempt at risk control.

This whole thread is basically of interest to those that want to assess risk, the mechanics of controlling risk around the topic of Covid in particular and emerging communicable diseases in general. A lot of us don't care about fashion, we care about what is effective and sensible - As Low As Reasonably Practicable ALARP either demographically (more interesting to me) or personally.

TL DR, someone coming into the thread saying they wear a certain thing a certain way is not just idly commenting on their fashion choices, they are making a statement of perceived reasonable or practicable risk control and by golly, wearing a mask for a bike ride away from people is right up there with spraying down your groceries with alcohol before they come in the house. Again you can spray alcohol on your groceries if you want and you can wear a mask outside away from people while riding a bike if you want. If you don't tell the thread discussing reasonable protections against covid about it, no-one will care.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Dick Trauma posted:

My biggest frustration with the "everyone will get this so stop living like a hermit" talk is that you can get COVID repeatedly. So it's not like "hey, get COVID and it's OVER with you BIG BABY!" People who believe that it's unavoidable seem to always ignore that part. One person at work has had it three times so far, another one left early Monday morning because they tested positive for the second time in three months.

It's not "one and done" and it's maddening that it's always framed that way. Obviously our government and our society has given up on public health, so it's going to be a lonely and depressing next few decades as like with everything else people are forced to double-down and triple-down on this bullshit, but I wish they were at least honest about it.

I don't think anyone here is ignoring that aspect. It is why ongoing vaccination, encouraging masks indoors, some companies temperature checks for people to enter the workplace (enforced sick leave if high temp), continued WHO and governmental efforts in this area is a thing.

With regards to public health, worldwide known covid deaths are down to about 1,300 a day https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938 and (for eg) world wide traffic traffic deaths are around 1.3 million a year (~3,600 a day https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/road-traffic-injuries) with far worse non-fatality statistics so obviously covid is not the highest priority and on the other side, efforts towards improving airline safety are continuing even though it is pretty much a negligible cause of death each year (<1,000 deaths a year worldwide https://www.statista.com/statistics/263443/worldwide-air-traffic-fatalities/).

Is like you are looking at all the continued improvement in demographic stats across the range of injury and disease and think it is just a coincidence or dumb luck? Cripes, if it was not for covid, malaria vaccination might have started the more effective vaccine now. Malaria has continued to kill more kids under five each each year than current strains of covid ever likely would have each year https://www.who.int/teams/global-malaria-programme/reports/world-malaria-report-2021.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

eXXon posted:

On what basis are you assuming that reduced cardiovascular health/capacity, persistent coughing, and a reduced sense of smell are not the result of COVID infection, given that those are all symptoms of the disease,, but are instead symptomatic of random bullshit that you made up?

He just said there is not enough data in to confirm. If you have those sources that confirm that any of those symptoms can't be from the causes he listed, feel free to share.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

eXXon posted:

You want me to prove that lockdowns and "institutional provocation of anxiety" don't cause problems with smell?

I said any, not all.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Lockdown as a term is being used for all manner of actions to reduce spread. In the Philippines for instance, the schools are still not back in class and the parents are either completing the work themselves and sending it back in for marking, taking the extra time to sit down with their kids to do the teaching or just letting education lapse. There is no online classes for most because there is not the money in the Philippines for such an expensive option. Two years and counting of significantly reduced educational outcomes. Philippines is not in lockdown but I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest the reduced educational outcomes will become an issue long term.

You don't have to be in full lockdown to suffer consequences and loss of smell was not the only (or even worst?) symptom listed.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Charles 2 of Spain posted:

Thankfully it was mostly an online thing, but there definitely used to be an underlying sentiment that people who caught COVID weren't taking enough precautions, the implication being they "deserved" to get sick. Obviously this would be terrible if it happened with monkeypox, not only for people who contracted the virus but those with other irrelevant conditions that look like lesions who are out in public.

It is actually an effective technique to hold people strictly accountable for becoming sick from communicable disease. I can't remember the details but there was a yank or brit general that put in the brig anyone that caught malaria during some deployment. It does not sound fair but it was effective in reducing the absenteeism due to malaria (people actually started using the provided DEET coated nets, long sleeves, etc). In one of our areas, each incident of malaria diagnosed in a worker requires an incident report by their supervisors complete with investigation, corrective actions and negative bonus impact due to poor safety statistics.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Roughly in line with what you'd expect given the trajectory of the virus. bopping along at ~1,400 deaths a day worldwide and no medical facility saturation anywhere at the moment?

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Stickman posted:

It's absolutely not 1,400 global deaths per day, that's just what's reported. It's also the minimum back in late June - now it's ~2,500 per day.

If we assume the US is closer to reporting all of it's COVID deaths and generously assume that US COVID death rates/year among older folks is roughly average for global older folks, we can back-of-the-envelope global rates by scaling by the US' proportion of the global 65+ population. US is currently looking like it would average somewhere between 300-500 deaths/day over the course of a year. The US has ~54 million of the world's 700 million 65+ population. Subtracting ~150 million for China that means that scaling up should be roughly 3k-5k deaths per day, or 1.1-1.8 million deaths per year. Throw in China (when they stop zero-COVID) and it's 1.4-2.4 million.

That puts the current global "low" impact of COVID at something like 2-8x yearly influenza deaths (which aren't going away), and I suspect that's a low-ball by at least a factor of two. It's on par with tuberculosis, and would be responsible for global 25-50% increase in all acute respiratory infection deaths (currently ~4 million per year).

E: It's possible that impact will decrease eventually, but we're likely at peak recent vaccine/booster coverage and there are very few unexposed people. As we continue to ditch the remnants of our precautions it seems like we'd need lucky mutations for the ongoing mortality impact to decline.

I just used https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938 and said "about" because doubtlessly there is under-reporting but also harvesting of the old and soon to die. Say unlike malaria which also has under reporting but deaths skew dramatically to children under five. I understand the CDC having a far more significant focus on Covid than Malaria because there is no to little malaria in the US but treating drug use and homicide as a medical emergency would probably save more life years than continued high level energy put into Covid. Certainly putting aside other medical care to focus on non-emergency covid is imprudent. In fact it demonstrates why the CDC needs to talk down covid, because if people are avoiding going to inspections, checkups and preventative care for fear of covid, that is something that needs to be tackled as a matter of priority.

By collapse I mean the NYC digging mass graves in the park, not that usual sliding scale of resourcing that goes into medical care all the time all over the world. Yes, covid will have an impact, monkey paw will have an impact, the new virus from the end of last week identified in China will have an impact on US medical resourcing as it takes initial preparatory steps.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Stickman posted:

Why yes, we can only focus on one thing at a time and that's why it's imperative to downplay risks of ongoing health crisis A because there's also B, B because there's also C, and C because there's also A.

The CDC is not downplaying COVID to focus on malaria. Pretending anything less that "collapse" is unworthy of response and recommendations for structural and personal mitigation is such a stratospheric goalpost that it's hard to respond to.

I even clearly stated I understood why the CDC has to put more focus into covid than malaria. Arguing that rebalancing priorities is not the same as cutting off all efforts. The energy put into Covid at its emergency height was causing unintended consequences that were the price that had to be paid out of prudence at the time. That time has passed and covid is just another medical drain on society to be managed. Worse than pneumonia, not as bad as cancer or obesity.

You literally stated that you are ignoring all other potential sources of medical issues preventable by routine and prudent checkups to reduce the risk of contracting covid. For the CDC to follow a similar policy and encourage (by intent or accidently) America's population to do likewise would lead to unnecessary poor medical outcomes down the road. Just telling otherwise healthy people not to bother coming into the hospitals or their GP if they suspect they have covid but don't have symptoms beyond mild is probably a positive demographic outcome but you can't effectively do that while also trying to maintain "covid is an emergency" energy levels.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

oh right. Sorry Stickman, my bad.

I don't think the CDC need to do more talking down. I was just explaining why I think their reduction in quarantining recommendations was in line with my expectations.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

I thought you could overdo vaccinations, as in your body builds has weird sensitivities/insensitivities develop to being vaccinated repeatedly or contracting covid repeatedly.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

I think a lot of parallels with the Kramer criticism of Fauci then and some stuff about Covid response now. People feel happy to use extremely strong (I don't think I am being hyperbolic when Kramer used "murderer") language even though they don't really know any better than the person they are criticizing and events may prove them to be completely incorrect. I'm not sure if Kramer ever publicly apologizes in open letter form for being so confidently incorrect in such an hyperbolic manner.

The hyperbolic language is then meant to be excused because the person thought they were right and they meant well and double excuse points if you can angle that you were punching up. Yes, sometimes criticism is warranted but including such hyperbolic language and overstating the confidence that one is correct is not actually helping.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

slurm posted:

I know I'll eat a sixer for this but it makes me so sad I'll never probably eat in a restaurant or see a concert or fly on a plane again

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Well if it was any consolation, your ordered a sixer to eat and it was served promptly. Like being in a good restaurant.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Nosre posted:

Been seeing this type of stuff going around in the EU because of a (supposedly bad) hearing Pfizer just had there. Tweet is just one example, for reference:

https://twitter.com/rob_roos/status/1579759795225198593

Can anyone explain what exactly they're mad about? I seriously don't understand. If the vaccine prevents you from getting infected in the first place, obviously it is preventing further transmission, and obviously it is also helping others :psyduck:

The vaccine goal was to reduce mortality and incidence of serious sickness, it does this by helping the body respond to an infection effectively, not by preventing any infection in the first place. It was tested to that goal and the efficacy of preventing transmission was only ever going to be a happy happenstance. Wearing masks was about preventing transmission, taking a vaccine was to prevent you becoming gravely sick or dying.

The likes of WHO or whatever I don't think ever had major campaigns hinging on vaccines for others benefit?

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Tiny Timbs posted:

Requiring proof of vaccination to work in person, travel, etc. were all approaches that at least implied the focus was on reducing transmission in public spaces and workplaces.

Nah, it was to increase vaccination rates to reduce workloads on medical systems.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Gio posted:

This is one hell of a retcon.

Unless you think the implication was, “I’m getting vaccinated so there’s a hospital bed available for grams grams.”

It was literally this. Discussion in the earliest days of the pandemic was about methods and techniques to reduce the hospital loads to reduce collatoral health harm from overloaded medical systems. Lockdowns were not to get to pre-covid but to give space for medical systems and population health policy to adjust to the new norm of covid being endemic.

From the earliest days of the vaccine, the language around covid from WHO etc has been that we have to get used to it, live with and unfortunately mitigate but tolerate an ongoing health strain due to Covid - best minimized if everyone has an appropriate vaccine and educating the public on hygine habits conducive to reduced spread (masks when sick, wash your hands, etc). This was because it has always been known that Covid vaccination was not sterilizing like a small pox vaccine but individually protective against the worst outcomes (to be fair, it was also discussed that by happenstance, transmission was indeed reduced to varying degrees depending on strain, vaccine, etc and certainly language leaning into that was also used to motivate by some).

A lot of people that over-invested in the thought that the world would go back to pre-covid have mis-interpretated messaging to mean that pre-covid was ever at all possible after about March 2020. You see this manifested most clearly in people hand-wringing about <7 year olds not having the latest vaccines immediately rolled out for free (to prevent little disease spreading monsters at school bringing it home). The reality is that reduced spread by vaccinating <7 year olds is a complete non-consideration and there is more impactful things at a demographic level to spend money and energy on.

Another way to think about it is that the early flu vaccines were never touted as a protect the community measure. It is applied to old and medically vulnerable people as a priority because they are most at risk and consume the most resources to care for if they have a bad bout of flu. For the longest time, flu vaccines were not prioritized to public facing staff such as check out staff, gym instructors, etc that you would do if the vaccine's primary purpose was to reduce spread as opposed to protect the individual.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Even the quotes dug up generally start with emphasis on disease reduction in the vaccinated, sometimes talks about breakthrough infections of the vaccinated (ie they still get sick despite being vaccinated) and end with the nice to have that vaccines likely or does reduce transmission a bit.

If the argument is that people out there didn't talk about disease reduction by getting vaccinated and instead based their exhortations to immunize on implying that covid vaccines are sterilizing then sure I am sure people can dig up quotes. Annoyingly people like to peddle white lies for a cause they believe in thinking it is a good thing.

To imply that it was intended that way from the start or that it is the primary message demonstrates selectivity bias in the messages you want to interpret as I absolutely did not get that impression from all the covid prevention media I consumed and used to do my job in maximising covid vaccination in my own workplace. We talked about taking the vaccine to set an example for gran and that them getting sick and dying could cost their family their only income, but never said that vaccinating Joe Schmoe the worker would protect his gran at home.

But maybe that demonstrates my own selectivity because from the earliest days it was apparent to me that a vaccine would likely (but not guaranteed) be able to be created (as was routine for other flu like illnesses although not often (at all?) for coronaviruses in particular) and that vaccines created would almost certainly not be sterilising (like flu like illness vaccines and unlike measles and small pox, because how natural immunity has behaved).

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

We put in place a system where the guard at the front gate checks temp and if you look sick or have an elevated temperature, you are sent to the clinic for assessment and then home on sick leave whether you like it or not.

The Union is not very happy as they say that sick leave is to be used as the worker wants but we got the local labor regulator on board before enacting it.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

tagesschau posted:

Temperature is not an effective COVID screen, and we've known this for at least a year by now, if not more. Are they still obsessively wiping down surfaces, too?

It is not the only thing done and it is not only done to protect against covid. Reducing the number of sick people in the workplace is a good thing.
Done alongside things such as distance, hygiene, vaccinations, testing (we installed PCR labs in the site clinics), etc it helps maintain resilience.

Incidentally, this made me think about the deaths amongst my workmates since Covid we have had:
~ One malaria
~ One workplace accident
~ Two heart attacks (both were pre-existing conditions awaiting surgery deferred due to Covid travel restrictions).
~ A few motorbike accidents


To be fair, it is a young workforce by and large and great efforts were made to keep the older workers protected (kept away from the office, WFH even for front line work roles, etc).

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

eh, if you gotten this far and your body has refused to be infected, a single does is most likely fine and for the much smaller population (never vaccinated, never been infected, susceptible to a nasty infection, meaningfully different outcome if had taken a second shot) is not really worth over-thinking about.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

Charles 2 of Spain posted:

Bit of an understatement here.

Sure but at the same time, I was able to get Astra Zeneca about a month or so after the UK in regional Burkina Faso, from a clinic with WHO doses. I thought was well remarkable.

The most inequitable thing was how much Africa was locked down from travelling relative to other nations with much worse outbreaks (looking at you the US). You could fly to EU from the US without too many hoops with a case rate multiples of Cote D'Iovire for instance but it was Cote D'Ivoire that was locked out, not the US.

Same thing happened with Ebola though. Ol' fear driving policy rather than cold analysis.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

eh, at least for me, Malaria has killed more of my workmates than Covid both this year and last, 2021 not. On the positive, now that the covid fear has relented, they are getting back to work on the vaccine for Malaria (a disease killing a few hundred thousand children under five every year for a very long time). Predicting >60% efficacy so hopefully that bares out.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

I AM GRANDO posted:

How do you measure cognitive ability? The paper probably says whether it’s correlated with annual income or education level, but I’m pretty suspicious of any argument that presents a definition of intelligence as a measurable trait.

Yeah, strikes me as wooo statistics trying to goad people into getting the vaccine (only dummies don't get the vaccine!). Admirable goal, dumb way to do it.

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply