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Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

That guy seems like he's having a lot of fun

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Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020
Maybe many decades of living the opulent highlife and rubbing shoulders with pariahs like MBS has distorted Putin's previously calibrated senses when it comes to issues of geopolitical importance? I would imagine Putin was flying high all through the Trump years and probably bought into his own mystique after summoning the American President to report to him.

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

A Festivus Miracle posted:

Well, it's a good question. If Putin drops a nuke on Ukraine, what are other states going to do about it? Would you, put in the same position as Macron,Boris, or Biden go "alright boys, the response to this is full blown nuclear war, get me the brief case. It's time to actually end history"? This whole invasion legit puts to the test what the actual gently caress anyone can do if a nuclear armed states decides to play WW2 Germany.

You certainly dont sit back and tell the maniac that just used a nuke that they get to dictate any terms. Its a full on war of preservation to maintain the nuclear taboo and prevent a first strike wave scenario. Otherwise you will just continue running into the same scenario, or worse

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

El Mero Mero posted:

It's not rooting, it's a mix of doomposting, pointing out that there's a massive power asymmetry, regardless of how well things look right now, and criticism of participating in war rhetoric.


The fall of kiev or even the complete levelling of it remains a likely/very highly possible tragic outcome and "rah-rah you can beat them" rhetoric is sick in that context.

Yelling at people because they aren't supporting the slave in the lion vs slave gladiator competition kinda misses the point of the criticism.

Wait so in this metaphor Ukraine is the slave being forced to fight Russia (the lion) who also is the King who's overseeing the fight and the only person who can stop the fight, and for whatever reason you don't support the slave?

Grip it and rip it fucked around with this message at 02:00 on Mar 2, 2022

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

El Mero Mero posted:

I've played the russians in enough video games now to know that seemingly unreasonable lopsided losses of disposable troops and tanks are a core character feature. They're basically the zerglings in every single game ever.

Not sure why this well known fact isn't showing up more frequently in sober checkmark twitter analyst discussions.

lol just joking about conscripts being murdered by their incompetent government. Another victim of CSPAM brain.

Edit: lol get the gently caress out of here with that faux concern for human lives nonsense. You can't tell people that they're cheering for the wrong outcome while comparing actual deaths to your favorite RTS you clown

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

Arsenic Lupin posted:

I have no military knowledge. How ridiculous is the Russian loss of equipment up to this point? I don't have anything to compare it to, so I have no sense of the order of magnitude.

I'm gonna use this website for the numbers I'll be discussing: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1293424/russia-s-loss-in-the-war-in-ukraine-by-type/

It looks like it's using the Ukrainian reports of casualties, so take it with a huge grain of salt. At the top of the list you'll see that they are claiming that there have been nearly 6000 russian troop's KIA so far. To give you a sense of scale, approximately 4,414 Allied soldiers died on D-Day. Of those 4414, 2501 were Americans. So at this point, even if you were to assume that Ukraine has been doubling their KIA count, Russia has suffered losses close to one of the bloodiest days of WWII.

edit: drat, too slow on the draw.

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

Proud Christian Mom posted:

NATO is not going to intervene and NATO aligned troops and pilots are not going to wink wink, nudge nudge their way into Ukraine

There are what, 28 countries in NATO? Why do you think you can make such a definitive judgement about this? I would imagine there are troops in Poland and the Baltics that would be ready to go

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

SerthVarnee posted:

What makes you imagine that Poland and any of the Baltic states are in a mood to see their whole country die in a horrible ball of fire?
The fact that their biggest enemy is currently bleeding himself to death?
The fact that their neighbor is currently ripping the Russian army to shreds?
The fact that Putin is desperate and thus even more likely to go all out world-ending on them if they so much as sneeze on the Russian border?
Even if there were troops ready to go. Are we talking mentally ready to hop over to Ukraine and lend a hand? Or does "ready to go" mean the Polish army is drafting plans to conduct no poo poo logistic operations in support of entire army units moving across the border into Ukraine?

Sorry should have been more clear - I meant covertly providing experts and material

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

bees everywhere posted:

Russia is digging their own diplomatic/economic grave right now, do you think anybody wants to interrupt them while risking nuclear armageddon? High risk, low reward - no thanks.

edit: They are definitely sending equipment, sending personnel is more tricky because of the problems it would cause when some of them inevitably get captured.

Yeah I suppose youre right - Ive just been kind if surprised with the open level of support that has already been provided to Ukraine. I guess if they're already openly sending planes and munitions there is no reason to have a parallel covert process to do the same thing.

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020
Edit: Nevermind

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

El Mero Mero posted:

Yeah. At this point it feels like there's not a good path to stop the current war.

Like...what...the "good scenario" might be a negotiated cease fire that ends with a massive DMZ across ukraine eventually? And a north-korea-esque economic/travel no-go-zone where Russia used to be that covers 1/5th of the continent?

No one has any idea what a likely outcome would look like because Russia has so badly bungled this entire operation. I think most optimistic scenarios in the west involve one or all of Putin's inner circle deciding to kill him and then ratcheting down tensions. Beyond that I would think treating this endeavor as the first salvo in a broader Russian war of conquest where every bit of resources they expend against irregular troops in Ukraine is one less that they can send to other Russian border regions.

My best guess, given the level of support that has already been provided, is that the west wants to make this as expensive and bloody a conflict as they possibly can, and part of that likely won't be coming to the negotiating table anytime soon. Letting Russia drag down a bunch of former satellite states into its zone of economic exclusion would be a loss / stalemate for the west

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

maffew buildings posted:

I get the real dirt from Twitter wine moms with poli sci degrees

On the real though Putin is bonkers so seems like not ruling out the unthinkable is prudent

Fiona Hill'a interview makes clear that some russian experts believe that Putin is capable of using Nuclear weapons and is doing all he can to make that potential course of action clear to the west. This whole thing does seem entirely unhinged.


Defenestrategy posted:

Question:

In a world of ICBMs, hypersonic nukes, and sub launched munitions. Does having your nuke forces staged 150 miles closer to what you want to hit going to meaningfully do anything?

Like I kind of get it in a world where bombers are your only delivery system, because bombers take awhile to get on station and could get intercepted, but in the above mentioned world it doesn't seem that relative proximity matters all that much as a bargaining chip.

I would imagine it makes a difference if youre a world leader with ready access to hardened structures with a quick helicopter ride. Probably not so much for the general public

Grip it and rip it fucked around with this message at 18:56 on Mar 3, 2022

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

Wasabi the J posted:

Man he's really trying to get NATO to do something....

While also getting what he wants.

And giving the appearance he is losing.

Do you think Putin is conducting this war well?

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

Wasabi the J posted:

Putin literally said he'd show the west genocide.

He didn't say poo poo like this over the past 20 years of him consolidating power because it's not the kind of statement a head of state makes when they are doing well.

The idea that everything that is going on is playing into his hand seems farcical, at best.

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

Wasabi the J posted:

I meant just that I think his forces are going to maximize civilian casualties, AND I don't trust Nazis.

I mean yeah, that's a real possibility - one that is backstopped by the failure of Putin to exert complete command and control over his forces up onto this point. There are reports that suggest that desertion has been a somewhat regular occurrence during this conflict - a situation that I would imagine would be exacerbated if Putin was to command his military to start committing warcrimes as a matter of course.

But yeah it's a bad situation that has a lot of potential to get much worse.

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

Wibla posted:

WW3 sounds OK at this point, heh.

If poo poo goes sidways I'm gonna find you and eat all your food and drink all your water

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

Dick Ripple posted:

A Russian refugee camp is still better than being in an active warzone. It makes sense to open corridors to those areas instead of trying to coordinate convoys across the entire country and hoping a few buses full of civilians don't get blown up.

I don't think it does make sense to trust the Russians, and I bet the Ukranian government won't either.

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

Uhhh literally all of Europe and the US have a horrific track record when it comes to antisemitic behavior. Not saying this to excuse Russian conduct but to clarify that it is t really much of a historical point of difference.

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

CommieGIR posted:

This is common in US military aircraft as well, it was pretty common for us to find handheld units exactly like that mounted on the windows of aircraft.

Yeah seems like a practical backup means of navigating, particularly given the reports of Russians having severe communication issues.

I recall the US shut down GPS access during one of Russias prior bouts of military adventurism.

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

Comrade Blyatlov posted:

I just heard on the radio there were now 18 separate strikes on medical facilities - anyone know if this is all on the same hospital or are they actively going after ALL health care now?

Russia definitely intentionally targeted medical facilities in Syria so I expect theyre following suit here

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

Proud Christian Mom posted:

the Syria red line was stupid as was our entire involvement in extending that misery

Are you talking about the military or the CIA?

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

AreWeDrunkYet posted:

If I recall correctly, part of the strategic justification for the US military budget is being able to fight two large scale expeditionary conflicts simultaneously. Now that Russia is being exposed as a paper tiger, isn't that a reason to cut back on spending? If China is the only potential conventional adversary, gearing up for two enemies that don't exist comes off as a waste of money.

With Europe increasing their military spending we never know who we might have to take on next :yarg:

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

Marshal Prolapse posted:

I was being sarcastic. I thought I put a v emoji. My bad.

Also I have no clue if this is true or anything, but maybe Jake Sullivan put the fear of God in the Chinese government.

https://twitter.com/euromaidanpr/status/1504278153849679876?s=21

Without the context in which this statement was delivered I'm not sure you can really drawn any conclusions about what it would mean w/r/t evading sanctions or sending support.

With that said Russia is about as unpopular as it has ever been so who knows.

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

bird food bathtub posted:

Ask me how I found out my apartment's smoke alarm is integrated in to building wiring and calls the fire department automatically.

Do you have like an actual cooking hood or some poo poo over your stove?

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020
I would imagine Putin sees multiple upsides to clearing out military officials he dislikes. From the sound of the talks hr may already be willing to abandon the complete capitulation objective and instead be bracing for the eventual political blowback, or he could be looking for someone to save the campaign and carry through his objectives for the war. Likely he is shooting for both at the same time with some other additional power maintenance objectives sprinkled on.

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

ASAPI posted:

Looks like Anonymous if following through on their promise of screwing with companies that stay in Russia. They just hacked Nestle and released a database:

https://www.thetechoutlook.com/news/technology/security/anonymous-released-10gb-database-of-nestle/

good gently caress nestle

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

A.o.D. posted:

The US was absolutely the aggressor in the Indian Wars, the Mexican American War, and the Spanish American War.

Ahem, remember the Maine?

I wouldnt hold someone helping traffic people into the United States against them, unless they did so in furtherance of some kind of illegal and abusive operation here in the USA. We should go back to open borders.

P. S. gently caress the DoJ

P. P. S. However for the crime of being a youtube celebrity - 50 lashes

Grip it and rip it fucked around with this message at 18:43 on Mar 23, 2022

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

psydude posted:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...f0867da37218cad

Russian MoD is shifting the goal posts just a teensy bit. I'm sure when this is all over they'll be back to telling everyone this was just an exercise all along.

Oh wow, this will do wonders for their morale problem. They're already winning!

Grip it and rip it fucked around with this message at 18:13 on Mar 25, 2022

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

orange juche posted:

People who say that oh it's no big deal do not know how loving deadly cesium 137 is, even 34 years on, it is still 1.4 million curies worth of radiation in the zone around Chernobyl. A single curie of Cs137 is 1/100 of a gram, about equivalent to a pinch of salt.

Go and pinch some salt out into the palm of your hand and imagine that that pinch of salt is decaying at a rate of 3.7 x 1010 disintegrations per second, for 30 years, spitting out beta particles and gamma rays with every decay, and every decay is an atomic rifle bullet aimed at your cells. Put that poo poo inside your lungs, you really don't need much, even 1 half life removed from the incident to turn your lungs into a loving disaster area.

How much dust you suck up and how quickly you do it determines whether you get lung cancer in 5 years vs your lungs shredding themselves as your lung cells fall apart from acute exposure.

E: also to say nothing of the fact that cesium loves water, it is readily oxidized by water and a small amount will heavily contaminate a large amount of groundwater, so if the Russian troops are drinking rainwater runoff from storms thinking that water purification tablets are enough, that's even more cesium they're putting in themselves.

Thank you - I was starting to feel crazy with all the "digging in radioactive dust is fine" posts.

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

Wasabi the J posted:

Also the war is a cover for destroying evidence of corruption in Ukraine. This is why they misdirect to Hunter Biden and bioweapons.

They're trying to bomb every place the gov would keep files of them laundering billions through the government, esp. the energy sector out there.

I don't think Russia would gaf about evidence of corruption being discovered. It's not like it's a big secret that corruption was a hallmark of the Ukrainian government pre-maidan and that it was largely a product of their close ties to the Kremlin.

I mean maybe it's like way down the list of objectives related to this campaign, but I really just can't imagine that its a real priority. There are about a million less destructive and costly ways to attend to evidence of corruption other than warfare, and Putin has shown that he's willing to utilize those kinds of means in the past.

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

I thought some portion of the Russian military was supposed to be waiting in defensive positions?

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

Tomn posted:

Say, question. Say you're this infantryman. You're wandering around alone in the wild without your gun for whatever reason when you spot a drone, and you're certain that it spotted you and is following you. What should you be doing instead of running back to your base and letting the enemy know where your guys are? Sit around and wait until it gets bored/runs out of batteries, gambling that it won't want to waste too much time calling down fire on one dude? Try to hide?

Shoot it with your rifle that you didn't lose

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

cruft posted:

No matter what, though, Ukraine is now bursting at the seams with weapons, and I can't see how this plays out well for the country's stability over the next 10-30 years.

Yeah uh, the threat to stability in Ukraine is Russia, not that they have arms. In fact the threat to regional and even international security in this moment is largely a belligerent Russia who feels entitled to attack its neighbors for no legitimate reason.

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020
Seems like the Ukrainians arent too concerned about the stability implications of these arms shipments. I would defer to them for matters of internal stability and cohesion in this situation.

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020
Does Putin not do yoga or take ashwanganda supplements?

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

Elviscat posted:

The airmen that crew missiles are notoriously burnt out and miserable, there was a big scandal not long ago about them cheating on tests and loving of on watch and what not.

Supposedly its where the Airforce dumps a lot of their dimwits because of the banality of the position.

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020
Blind Rasputin and the computer from Wargames (1983) are both convinced that the only winning move is not to play.

The reality of what is going to happen is that the aid we send to Ukraine IS going to be turned against the USA, but its going to be when Marjorie Taylor Greene becomes president and immediately has the other two branches of government arrested and implements a fascist regime of ball tanning that causes irreversible damage to the testes of todays youth. The consequences of this level of scrotal annihilation will be significant and diverse. The causal chain that results in the Ukranian invasion of Alaska is too lengthy and contextual to list out here, but rest assured it keeps me up at night.

Grip it and rip it fucked around with this message at 16:18 on May 1, 2022

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

Suicide Watch posted:

What do you get out of having your son take part in a pseudo-fascist organization? I ask this as a person who's attained Eagle Scout but has a hard time seeing anyone signing their kids up these days

Yeah! Im glad someone finally bsaod something!

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

SMEGMA_MAIL posted:

Unlike you pieces of poo poo I got fired my last job in a high rise for refusing to use a Krupp elevator. Also because I let it be known I’d only be drinking Ukrainian vodka on the work site

Thank you for your service o7

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Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020

Gaius Marius posted:

This tweet, like all tweets, is a complete misquote. I don't like the man, but this sort of intellectual dishonesty needs to be called out every time you see it.

That is what he said though? How is it not?

"Negotiations need to begin in the next two months before it creates upheavals and tensions that will not be easily overcome. Ideally, the dividing line should be a return to the status quo ante," Kissinger said.

Prior to the Russian invasion, Russia had already annexed Crimea and portions of eastern Ukraine. A return to the status quo ante would be restoring those conditions, which would require Ukraine to surrender portions of it's sovereign territory

Grip it and rip it fucked around with this message at 00:59 on May 25, 2022

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