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Kavros posted:This war has already been fascinatingly ground-based with relatively few air assets, and I'm assuming this will keep the trend strong for at least one side, Hopefully though someone is working on getting Ukraine some modern(ish) airframes. Considering that some HARMs strapped to ancient Migs seem to be reasonably effective at loving up russia's air defenses, this would be an absolute gamechanger. NATO's whole strategy for fighting russia (or anyone else for that matter) is heavily dependent on the air forces.
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Oct 11, 2022 21:28
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Tuna-Fish posted:The reason for that is that Ukraine has good heavy AA, which greatly limits the freedom of action of the VKS. The problem with this is that they don't have infinite missiles for their S-300 systems, and there is no substantial supply of them outside Russia. This means that eventually they will have to move to western AA systems. Some systems like NASMS and Iris-T are on the way, but no indication about the Patriot which would be an actual replacement in terms of range and capability. Vincent Van Goatse posted:"Cool story" how? That's a phrase that can have five or six contradictory meanings.  motion but in any case, somehow Musky picked up and is parroting their propaganda line about "Kruschev's mistake" and other nonsense 1:1.
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Oct 11, 2022 22:15
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beer_war posted:I'm all for dunking on the FSB at every available opportunity, but in this case it doesn't seem warranted. The x-ray was of a different truck and trailer as it entered Russia from Georgia. Which the FSB knew and stated as such. That doesn't make the images very useful, but it's not a fuckup either. So what was the point? Look how useless our cool x-ray machines are? This is btw how they're explaining the route: 
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Oct 12, 2022 15:32
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Dirt5o8 posted:I wanted to quote you for a crab battle but also:
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Oct 12, 2022 18:52
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https://twitter.com/WTF_Over1/status/1580239237907030033 What bearing doing? I can't confirm 100% myself that it's from the bridge but if legit its probably quite a bit more hosed that suspected  saratoga posted:I'm more concerned what happens when Russia is pushed back to the 2014 lines. After 8 years of preparation those are likely to be a lot more defensible than an anti-tank ditch and some trenches manned by remnants of destroyed BTGs and raw conscripts. Marshal Prolapse posted:Yeah, I wouldn't be shocked if they eventually abandon some naval assets, because no one ever expected those to be in danger of attacks and/or capture. I would love to have the Ukrainian navy rebuilt with Russian donations or traded to the US for some quality product. They'll be able to get their navy out unless the whole bridge collapses instantly...
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Oct 12, 2022 19:27
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Kavros posted:Sometimes I really wonder what he thought he was going to be able to do, but with this nordstream stuff it just seems bafflingly irrational throughout. What was the play? We still don't really know for sure that they did it, though I think so. The play was probably exactly this. "Wow that's terrible someone would do such a thing. Isn't energy infrastructure fragile? Anyway we're happy to continue selling you gas again through the only intact pipeline in order to fund our war crimes"
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Oct 12, 2022 20:31
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Ynglaur posted:I'm actually not convinced US doctrinal changes will be glacial. It changed remarkably quickly in both the 1930s and 1970s, and was not necessarily driven solely off of its own experience. Parts have remained consistent (we still don't bother with any double-envelopment complexity), but the state of US doctrine has not been static. Nenonen posted:Why is it okay to bomb the Antonovsky bridge and the crews that repair it, but not the Kerch bridge? Both are or were used by civilians. One of them makes Putin very sad!
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Oct 12, 2022 21:16
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Just wait until the workers go on break and then blow the bridge up.  The bridge is clearly how they're funneling supplies to the south, so it totally a legit target. It also didn't exist until 2018 and the world didn't end. IIRC basically the requirement is that you do everything possible to minimize civilian casualties when they aren't completely avoidable. So yeah when the workers are on a break, or in the middle of the night if possible.
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Oct 12, 2022 21:26
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Plastic_Gargoyle posted:The others I get, but what bug has Nicaragua got up its rear end lately to think siding with the crazy people is a good idea? Amerikkka bad, I imagine. They have a good reason I imagine but it's still pretty stupid to vote for in favor of wars of conquest. Also India playing the "neutrality" card again in the worst way possible.
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Oct 12, 2022 22:00
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Ynglaur posted:If India and China want to be seen as global leaders, they need to start having opinions on questions such as "should one country genocide another country". It's difficult when you want the answer to be "Yes" but without saying it out loud yourself
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Oct 12, 2022 22:07
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Charliegrs posted:So do countries like India, Iran, and Belarus just hate Ukraine? Because I don't get why they are literally helping Russia genocide their country. Do they actually hate Ukraine or is it like an ideological thing where might makes right to these countries? Or is it just simple dollars and sense? (India needs oil, Iran likes to sell weapons etc). Although I've tried talking to some Indians (on the web obviously) and they do seem to have a handy list of every time they think Ukraine wronged them somehow. Like, I kid you not, the 1998 UN vote to condemn nuclear testing quote:Prior to its adoption, separate votes were taken on preambular paragraph 2 and operative paragraph 1. The second preambular paragraph, by which the Assembly bore in mind recent nuclear tests that challenged the international non-proliferation regime, was adopted by a recorded vote of 159 in favour to 1 against (India), with 3 abstentions (Bhutan, Israel, Pakistan) (Annex XXI). E: A few years ago in South Africa I met one of their MPs at the airport. I still have her business card somewhere, I'll try to reach out and see what's up. I'm sure she has no control over foreign policy but it could be interesting to hear the actual thinking and maybe find an angle to move the opinion a bit. mobby_6kl fucked around with this message at 00:54 on Oct 13, 2022 |
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Oct 13, 2022 00:50
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The Lone Badger posted:I mean I'm assuming it was Ukraine because when it comes to means-motive-opportunity they pretty much top the list for all three. Ukraine could've done it of coursed and I do hope they blow it up again, but there are many plausible explanations that don't really require a massive  PederP posted:For those who do have the time and inclination to watch YouTube videos, Danish military analyst Anders Puck Nielsen made a new one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTSWKrGEAAA. He's a navy guy and I thought his early war analysis was way too "Russia has an actual army waiting in the wings", so I found his non-navy stuff a little meh (he was and is incredible when it comes to navy stuff), but I found over the last few months he has really hit a stride, and gained a much more nuanced and less 'pre-war biased' view of things. I hope he does more navy-focused stuff soon, though, as that is where is true skill lies.
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Oct 13, 2022 09:29
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bird food bathtub posted:I would imagine there's also a lot of performative security theater going on at the bridge right now as well. If the official line is that the x-ray'd truck was missed and made a boomie the bureaucratic response will be the Russian equivalent of every one spending four hours in line at TSA taking off their shoes and belts. Yes and that boat isn't going to do poo poo either alex314 posted:Anyone remember the craziest weapon buyer Poland? Turns out US might not be keen on selling 500 HIMARS systems, since it's pretty bonkers... The K239 is a wheeled truck but has two pods of 6 missiles, like the M270. But, as far as I can tell from the wiki article, has incompatible missiles. That's... not a great idea! I mean for Poland but also for SK to have made that in the first place, as having access to a gazillion missiles from your allies seem like would've been helpful if poo poo hits the fan. quote:ER GMLRS rockets with extended range of up to 150 km (93 mi).[59] Rockets use a slightly increased rocket motor size, a newly designed hull, and tail-driven guidance, while still containing six per pod. It will come in unitary and AW variants.[60] The first successful test flight of a ER GMLRS occurred in March 2021.[61] In early 2021, Lockheed Martin anticipated putting the ER into its production line in the fiscal year 2023 contract award and was planning to produce the new rockets at its Camden facility.[22] In 2022 Finland became the first foreign customer to order ER GMLRS.[62]
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Oct 13, 2022 18:02
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Enjoy posted:I was referring to the MANPADS
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Oct 13, 2022 18:11
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The masses of conscripts are probably also starting to fill in holes and slowing things down now somewhatTuna-Fish posted:The Chunmoo is compatible with the 227mm system that the HIMARS uses. It just can also fire a bunch of different domestic Korean rockets. Those are different because they were designed before the M270 was.
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Oct 13, 2022 19:50
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Southern Ukraine isn't super cold. I mean it's not like California with fake winters but we aren't talking about your piss freezing before it reaches the ground.  The bridge has to go. As we've seen, it can be blown up during the night with minimal civilian casualties. vvvv mobby_6kl fucked around with this message at 21:28 on Oct 13, 2022 |
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Oct 13, 2022 21:24
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Alchenar posted:If your long term national strategy for winning wars is to maintain a technology and innovation advantage over your opponents then this would be a terrible thing to do, particularly if you aren't actually conducting the war in question. And it does solve the problem of Musk loving around with it.
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Oct 14, 2022 10:19
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I said that with the understanding that SAM sites will have to be destroyed  Russia launches cruise missiles from ships, submarines in the Black Sea and airplanes. All of those are fine to blow up. As for why Starlink might need to be nationalized: 
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Oct 14, 2022 10:43
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Koos Group posted:That is an interesting hypothetical. What sort of negotiations could have feasibly led to Ukraine peaceably allowing self-determination for its territories? It's difficult for me to imagine given recent history, but I'm not an expert on the region. E: some good news about the bridge, they want it repaired by July https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63255611 Assuming nothing else unfortunate happens until then of course mobby_6kl fucked around with this message at 19:35 on Oct 14, 2022 |
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Oct 14, 2022 19:31
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Are all of these actual C-SPAM mods or something, suddenly "just asking questions"? Russia invaded and staged an illegal, fraudulent referendum. So any sort of discussion about self determination is completely moot. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 14, 2022 22:26
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Herstory Begins Now posted:impressive that he manages a pro-ukraine bias while using almost entirely russian information/postings Paladinus posted:Two conscripts opened fire on other soldiers at a shooting range of a military base near Belgorod. At least 13 dead, including the shooters. MoD say the shooters where from a CIS country, while right-wing telegram channels go further and specify the two were from Tajikistan.
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Oct 15, 2022 20:43
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Chalks posted:Besides the obvious, after the pipeline strikes people have wondered about the potential for more significant Russian attacks against western infrastructure or other covert actions against European nations, for example. But if Ukraine had received proper AA months ago, like they should've, hundreds of civilians and billions worth of infrastructure would've been intact. So what exactly have we achieved with this strategy? Deteriorata posted:The main issue with ATACMs, as I understand it, is that they're out of production and its successor isn't going to be available until 2024. mobby_6kl fucked around with this message at 18:39 on Oct 16, 2022 |
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Oct 16, 2022 18:35
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Warbadger posted:What specialized long range missiles are for targeting "Crimea" or the Kerch bridge? Anything with long enough legs to do that can also take the fight to Russia. HIMARS and HARM are examples of things that can already "take the fight to Russia" a pretty fair distance across the long border Ukraine shares with it. In fact it looks like Ukraine might've HARMed something in russia today: https://twitter.com/herooftheday10/status/1581566558437969922?s=20&t=nrY1jRUz8Z4lNw9cWS5tRw https://twitter.com/MichaelYartys/status/1581574673975779328
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Oct 16, 2022 19:54
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Dirt5o8 posted:It's my understanding that European NATO countries have some pretty fantastic ADA but in very limited quantity. The U.S. has a lot of poo poo-tier ADA that was "good enough" for counter insurgency work but are in the middle of a big modernization program and won't have anything good available for ~5-10 years. The Patriot would be definitely good enough to shoot down russian's ancient fleet of flying tractors. For everything else like drones and poo poo, the Gepards, Iris-T, and NASMS also exist. It's not that NATO doesn't have it, they're just now finally getting to deliver this stuff for whatever reason. Not to mention the thousands of F-16s that would be moved to the farm in the desert soon anyway.
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Oct 16, 2022 21:51
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Some indication that Hungary is gonna ratify Sweden and Finland. Dunno how reliable of a source someone from the Hungarian "Party of European Socialists" is, considering it's Orban's party that has all the power. Hopefully true though. This would leave only Turkey.quote:Hungary, one of the two NATO member states that have not yet approved the bloc’s expansion, will ratify the protocol on the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO on October 24, Eero Heinaluoma, a member of the European Parliament and former chairman of the Finnish Social Democratic Party, said on Sunday.
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Oct 17, 2022 08:56
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golden bubble posted:https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1581969746693566465 Did they actually manage to shoot it down? I've watched it a couple of times but with the potato quality it's hard to say if it just crashes somewhere or if it was controlled descent. Anyway, speaking of these loving drones, quote:DUBAI, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Iran said on Monday that it had not provided Russia with drones to use in Ukraine. https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-says-it-has-not-provided-russia-with-drones-use-ukraine-2022-10-17/
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Oct 17, 2022 16:39
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Ok check this out. POV drones with machine guns on them.
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Oct 17, 2022 18:31
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Rheinmetall has a cool Skynex 35mm AA gun too. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pb5_F4_Eod8&t=80s Really there are a lot of things that could shoot down these drones, the problem is, as was mentioned, that it's impossible to cover all possible civilian targets. The most cost-effective would be IMO to a) target the launch location/supplies, and b) identify them in time and have a TDF guy with a Stinger blow them the gently caress up.
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Oct 17, 2022 19:07
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PederP posted:Hit is not knocked out. Lots of media have been using an exaggerated and incorrect headline. Yes and that's good but it doesn't really diminish the war criming cinci zoo sniper posted:Our national media are citing Expressen as reporting that at least 50 metres of pipeline have been destroyed. Whoa. Rally want to read the official report, this is nuts. I thought it'd be a relatively small breach, but I guess it makes sense if the explosion could be detected as a seismic event
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Oct 18, 2022 11:25
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fatherboxx posted:Oryx lists about a dozen of crashes due to non-combat causes Still, I doubt sanctions against civilian aviation have anything to do with it. Probably just the regular lovely maintenance and more flight hours than normal.
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Oct 18, 2022 14:04
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Hannibal Rex posted:https://twitter.com/yaffaesque/status/1582016373588254721?t=vfCrzK6YiM2GUU7FTPHVzA&s=19 quote:One official, a respected expert on ballistic missiles, told me that Russia needed to “send a nuclear warhead to a suburb of Washington.” He added, “Americans will poo poo their pants and rush to beg us for peace.” He appeared to be partially joking. But Russians tend to think that Americans are too pampered to risk their lives for anything, so when I pointed out that a nuclear attack would invite catastrophic retaliation, he scoffed: “No it wouldn’t.”  Well. Hopefully the recent statements have made it clear that MAD is still a thing. Pleasant Friend posted:I thought guns on drones wouldn't work because the recoil of shooting would knock the drone out of the sky?
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Oct 18, 2022 15:29
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Willo567 posted:They don't mean it. They're just trying to act tough like they always do The whole article paints a picture of everyone huffing their own propaganda about how russia stronk and everyone else is a bunch of pussies. Clearly some are aware that this is bullshit, like the author, but it seem that they're all sending "yes the decadent westerners are all trembling now" to their superiors, all the way to the top.
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Oct 18, 2022 16:13
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Deltasquid posted:It never fails to amaze me that apparently the Russian military has to rely on looting/foraging so much of the local population. Do they also use billeting to provide for lodging? If only Ukraine had the 3rd amendment!
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Oct 18, 2022 21:47
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Deteriorata posted:No, it's been reported numerous times that they're being evacuated to Crimea. That's not going to be far enough
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Oct 18, 2022 22:03
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Enjoy posted:Can you translate You can translate using google. But tl;dr: First tweet: "Take a photo, as if I'm at the front" Second tweet: the rumors of a firefight between FSB and military goons this summer seems to be confirmed, a son of a high-ranking FSB guy wanted to be a governor of an occupied territory (that was never taken) but instead got into a drunken firefight with other fascists and was kicked out
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Oct 19, 2022 20:01
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^^^ "Released" could be fired as well. If a missile just fell off, would anyone even notice it unless the plane like right in front of them?
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Oct 20, 2022 17:51
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I hope they pass this because I really don't trust the republicans not to gently caress everything up, even if it does look like there are enough of them not on russian payroll now.
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Oct 20, 2022 20:59
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OAquinas posted:Considering we've only just confirmed that Iranian soldiers are on the ground helping to invade Ukraine, that would be a super fast discovery. Plus I don't think any launch sites for the terror weapons are in HIMARS range, but russia being russia that could yet be true. BoldFace posted:Honestly, this has been the best bang for the buck US has put on defense since WW2. At least part of these packages are used to directly weaken their enemies, unlike all that expensive posturing during the Cold War and the War on Terror. It's a rare treat to still be able to claim moral high ground in such a clear proxy war. If the general economic situation was better in US, this would be even more well-received. Some dipshit like McCarthy going... nah and torpedoing everything would be an incredible self-own for the world order we've been trying to create in opposition to fuckers like Putin and Xi. Rigel posted:Even if there are enough you'd still want to pass it now to not have a financial hostage situation where the GOP demands some lovely domestic spending cuts as an offset in exchange for agreeing to Ukraine aid. Thats probably what the actual gameplan would be in the house if the GOP won. Oh absolutely, wouldn't want the whole thing being held up by some chud, this is no joke life or death poo poo
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Oct 20, 2022 21:23
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OAquinas posted:That's inaccurate. There's tons of physical evidence, most damningly that it exploded from the inside out. Everyone made their conclusion way before that was revealed though 
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Oct 20, 2022 22:05
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A big flaming stink posted:Their presence has been all but assured by the US's repeated hostility and attacks on their country. Poor Iran! Has no choice but support genocide, why Amerikka made them do it? 
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Oct 21, 2022 09:28
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