Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

aniviron posted:

A question to those more knowledgeable about this conflict and military history/doctrine than I: Should we expect to see more rapid progress, or no? My understanding is that the recent recapture of territory was able to happen because cities function as strongpoints - they are both the best terrain in which to make a defense, as well as being the most valuable targets to hold. Much of the terrain outside of the cities is rolling plains, which seems both harder to defend as well as less important strategically. But for example if (hopefully when) the Ukrainian Army liberates Kherson, is it reasonable to expect much of the territory between there and Melitopol to also be liberated, at least up til a natural barrier like a river? Or is a rapid offensive like this unlikely to be repeated?

Over the last 2 months Ukraine has conducted major offenses, taken large chunks of territory, then consolidated their gains for a week or so before launching the next major offensive. They've been able to keep pressing like this because Russia's already lost a substantial amount of men/equipment/ammo over the last 8 months and has apparently not been able to properly replace these losses. Probably due to a combination of corruption and sanctions.

So as long as NATO keeps equipping, training and bankrolling Ukraine, there's no reason for them to stop advancing. At least until winter properly kicks in, which will probably slow things down. We'll see if it changes Ukraine's pace or if they decide to stop altogether for the season.

But with the current round of escalation, it's also possible that things can change in ways no one has seen yet. Getting better SAMs and longer range missiles (SAMs on the way, longer range missiles are being seriously discussed in response to yesterday's attacks) could allow Ukraine to create new opportunities.

Orthanc6 fucked around with this message at 23:29 on Oct 11, 2022

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Sucrose posted:

Surely; I think that some people are just beginning to think they see a light at the end of the tunnel, as opposed to nothing but the prospect of continued unrelenting horror that it had been for so many months. But personally I think that as bad as Russia’s recent losses have been, it’s still way, way too early to think the end is in sight.

There is a very long road ahead, barring unforeseeable changes. Ukraine's made surprising progress but if we look at what they've taken back this fall compared to what's left to take back, even from the February borders, yeah that's a lot of ground to reclaim.

But this war is a man with a gun breaking into a home and starting to kill family members. Both because he wants the house, and because he has a vendetta against the family. Meeting violence with violence is the last and worst option, but not stopping Putin here is guaranteed to produce more wars. So I'm glad that Russia is not finding success, and I'm glad a whole bunch of nations are doing what they can to help Ukraine survive. I wish Russia's war criminals could be dealt with in court, but that is never going to happen, so the very tarnished silver lining is that at least some of them are being stopped from their war-criming by Ukraine's army.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009
We don't have to level city blocks to stop a country's war industry in 2022...

But train stations, most of the ammo depot's Russia's been using, and extremely strategic bridges like Kerch are still civilian infrastructure. And often civilians will be on site or nearby. Russian civil workers, passerby's and even Ukrainians may be around these sites.

I hope the initial bridge attack was timed to minimize collateral casualties, the bridge was relatively empty at the time. But as we all saw, there were still civilians killed by this action.

Ukraine needs to attack these targets to prevent the deaths of their own civilians. But it is not clean, innocent people are hurt by it, directly and indirectly even with the most accurate modern weaponry.

Ideally, if they get the chance again they can attack it after repairs are complete and the crews have cleared out. But that may risk losing a chance to attack before, or letting crucial supplies for the enemy get across.

War is hell because you may need to match your enemy's breach of moral codes in order to survive. Lesser of two evils still requires evil.


Putin is 100% at fault for forcing this issue.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Charliegrs posted:

So do countries like India, Iran, and Belarus just hate Ukraine? Because I don't get why they are literally helping Russia genocide their country. Do they actually hate Ukraine or is it like an ideological thing where might makes right to these countries? Or is it just simple dollars and sense? (India needs oil, Iran likes to sell weapons etc).

Belarus is attached to Russia at the hip, and the US has isolated Iran for decades so they don't have anyone else on the world stage who will really accept them. As has been mentioned, Russia has given India a lot of support, but India does still have a lot of options so they're fence sitting as strategically as they can at the moment.

Anyone else on the fence or openly supporting Russia I suspect is more because the US has messed with them too much so out of principle they don't want to be on the same side. See; Cuba and Vietnam, abstaining but not directly supporting.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

bird food bathtub posted:

I would imagine there's also a lot of performative security theater going on at the bridge right now as well. If the official line is that the x-ray'd truck was missed and made a boomie the bureaucratic response will be the Russian equivalent of every one spending four hours in line at TSA taking off their shoes and belts.

So logistics are probably screwed even without another attack.

Logistics are definitely screwed. Not sure how bad trains are backed up, but they have a similar situation of 50% reduction in capacity, so my guess is it's all FUBAR'd:

EDIT: actually it'd be worse for trains, there's no switch track along the entire length of the bridge, so any train going the opposite direction has to wait for the train on the bridge to travel it's entire length before it can even start.

https://twitter.com/BenDoBrown/status/1580385992791334912?s=20&t=voh69BBdQyrVe7ZgjFIOJQ

Orthanc6 fucked around with this message at 17:42 on Oct 13, 2022

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Koos Group posted:

I assume in this hypothetical there would be an armistice.

Only way that could possibly be considered objective is if Ukraine takes everything back. Russia already did an obviously rigged AND at gun-point referendum, so they can never be trusted to do another one if they still occupy the territory.

While it'd probably create interesting data, I can hazard a guess in that instance that, having the territory reclaimed, sentiment would be massively in favor of Ukraine.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

GreyjoyBastard posted:

surely there's some level of actual, if in the case of Brexit very stupid, popular support where Russia supporting a thing doesn't mean it's illegitimate

If Putin had limited his land grab to Crimea, it's possible-to-likely it would have stuck. Support for joining Russia was genuinely reasonably high, Sevastopol was something that in practical terms Russia was never going to willingly lose, and in general it would be a whole hassle for uncertain gain. Unfortunately, Putin decided he also wanted a big chunk of SE Ukraine and/or to ruin it as a demonstration to other nations in the Russian sphere, and also at some point lost the plot and decided Ukraine isn't a real nation and needs to be Russified.

I'm of the opinion the only reason he didn't go for all of Ukraine in 2014 is that his army was in no shape to do so, as shown by the 8 years of prep time for the current stage of the invasion.

Also considering the mask falling off this year, it's impossible to have an objective argument about "how much did Crimea want to join Russia?" It was impossible to find out as of 2014. The percent of Crimeans supporting Russia before Maidan became irrelevant information, the revolution changed political realties overnight. But then there was no time after that change to objectively poll anyone because Russia immediately invaded in response. Whatever the truth about sentiment in that short period was is simply lost information.

This is all really moot. There's a full-blown war now, Russia can never be trusted to negotiate in good faith, and they can not be allowed to retain anything they tried to take by force. That includes Crimea. Today's practical reality has rendered the questions about Crimea's feelings towards Russia irrelevant. And it's not just avoiding bad precedent, Ukraine has to remove Russian forces from Crimea in order to protect their shipping after the war. If or how that happens is for 2023 to figure out.

I'll go as far to say IMHO it is everyone's moral obligation to not even do "devil's advocate" arguments about Crimea and Donbass joining Russia. Russia is conducting genocide in Ukraine, there is nothing we should hand to them even rhetorically, ever.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

I haven't seen much reaction to these moves, I feel leaders should be speaking up more to deter this. Maybe there's just a lot going on, if anyone has recent statements from major players I'd like to see it.

I have little doubt that this will actually happen at this point. If Russia falls apart Lukashenko will go with it, so either he tries to help now or risks watching his sponsor drown in it's own blood. It'll probably horribly backfire anyways, but Putin's dragged him into this dumbest of corners with him.

An official expansion to this war will not bode well. I think Ukraine can hold them off but it will of course slow down their offenses, and geopolitics will go into a steeper nose dive with yet another country joining open war.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Ynglaur posted:

I hope this isn't veering into Clancychat and if it is I'll demur, but I'm genuinely curious: if Belarus becomes an active belligerent, does that change the political situation enough so that e.g. Poland or another country might use direct military action against Belarus? I just don't know enough about Eastern European political norms.

This is kind of what I'm wondering, though I imagine military action against Belarus by someone not Ukraine is much less likely than Belarus attacking in the first place. That said, a strong response by other nations that does physically deter Belarus is needed, which is what I'm really wondering about.

I'd say this isn't Clancy, because Belarus is using the threat of invasion right now as a political tool, and we need to be able to discuss and asses possible reactions to that, whether they invade or not. It might be a low chance, but the odds get worse the more troops Belarus moves to the border.

I agree it would be a dumb move in that it is both very unlikely to succeed, and very likely to backfire. And I think Lukashenko knows both of those, but again, Russia made similar obvious errors starting this war in the first place.

Possible grey zone would be Poland sending in troops to help defend the Belarus border if they do invade. Russia will of course whine and escalate, but I don't think it's a good precedent to let them start a 2v1 war uncontested.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Young Freud posted:

Maybe a series of balloons with high-tensile fishing wire. The fishing wire won't be seen easily through the camera on these things, especially at high speed.

Old school solutions for modern problems:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barrage_balloon

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Wuxi posted:

The gepard basically fits all the requirements for drone hunting, doesnt it? Its a self-propelled AA gun with radar and maybe enough armour to not care about getting hit itself. You just gotta figure out where to park them since they can't be everywhere at once and since Russia doesnt seem interested in anything but maximum suffering you can't just be content with defending critical infrastructure.

Yeah I believe a large number of small AA mounts, with a combination of radar targeting and fused flak ammunition is the best bet here. Unlike bombers in WW2, these attackers are slower and fly much lower, especially of course on their final dive.

No solution to this will be cheap. But fused flak eliminates the issues with shells landing in the city down-range and you don't need to hit the drone with the bullet, you create a small shrapnel cloud and these drones are small enough you don't need it to be a particularly large caliber.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

PederP posted:

I don't know if this has, or something similar has been shared yet:



It really isn't very well-defined when something is a drone. This chart doesn't even include propulsion, control/AI systems and reusability. Boats and ships, tanks and X-fighting vehicles, drones and airborne weapon systems. The problem is the tendency to attribute the attributes of an instance to the entire category or another instance. I wonder which war will end up with the premature death of the drone being proclaimed as the anti-drone 'javelin' becomes the hero of the information theatre of said war.

I don't think anything can kill the "drone" because drones are, as you say and the chart shows, so varied in role and design that there will never be one tool that reasonably gets the job done against all of them. A high-end AA weapon that can take down Predators would be useless against drone subs. Jamming does nothing if the thing has good enough AI to either RTB or even complete the mission independently on loss of comms.

The Main Battle Tank is a much more rigid concept and we're seeing that the "death of the tank" is a lot more to do with improper tactics than conceptual limits of the vehicle.

Brings up another rhetorical oddity. Suicide drones like Switchblades and Shahed are missiles, the only difference is propulsion method which allows them to loiter rather than just take the shortest path from launcher to target. So we call them "loitering munitions", even though cruise missiles might spend more time crossing the longer range to their targets. We could call them sky torpedoes, they have similar guidance options and use propellers.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

cinci zoo sniper posted:

It would be really disastrous, since the dam is holding 18.18 cubic kilometres of water - the reservoir behind it is roughly 230x9.3 kilometres. The one aspect where blowing that up doesn’t make sense to me is how they plan to ensure Crimean water supply if they blow the dam up and leave.

If they blow the dam, considering it will flood their side of the Dnipro worse, and cut off Crimea's water for a very long time, honestly I could only see them doing that if they planned to abandon Crimea. Which is quite unlikely, but with Kherson now on the edge and the bridge damaged, a lot more plausible than it was even a month ago. Still, it would be admitting total long-term defeat on that front, so I don't think Putin would do it. There's other insane ways he could escalate that are still less dumb than that.

If it happens it doesn't make sense. But of course Russia don't make no sense these days, they keep playing nuclear chicken with the Zaporizhzhia plant, on top of y'know, the whole vaporize their own economy and demographics with this war in the first place.

Hopefully the Kherson offense gets there first and the Russian officers hypothetically tasked with rigging the dam to blow spent that time strapping more washing machines to their BMPs instead.

EDIT

cinci zoo sniper posted:

I believe the waterworks junction directing water to Crimea is something further downstream, and, in all fairness, the supply problem was that it was closed, which hypothetical dam demolitions upstream shouldn’t undo, but I cannot shake the feeling that this move would quite likely involve some rather undesirable infrastructure damage not in Russia’s interests.

I believe this shows the entrance to the aqueduct for Crimea. it is connected to the dam's reservoir almost flush with the dam. I'm no geo-engineer, but if that reservoir empties it looks very possible that water would no longer reach the aqueduct's entrance.
https://www.google.ca/maps/@46.7668478,33.3969674,1879m/data=!3m1!1e3!5m1!1e4?hl=en

Orthanc6 fucked around with this message at 09:28 on Oct 20, 2022

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009
From the VFW's Ukraine thread:


So Zelenskyy confirms destruction of the dam would destroy Crimea's water supply. I hope this was just Putin covering his bases by giving himself the option, but depending on where the frontline in Kherson is right now, his window for blowing the dam is probably closing rapidly. And if he does, he's saying he's willing to give up Crimea to burn Ukraine, which is... something...

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009
edit: beaten

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009
If NATO isn't doing anything kinetic to Belarus for letting Russia invade and launch missiles/aircraft from their territory, they're not about to attack Iran over a handful of drone operators at worst.

Ukraine on the other hand, I'm not sure how they felt about Iran before, but this will set a long historic precedent for how Ukraine treats Iran, barring a revolution which may or may not be in progress. Who knows, they might even get their hands on some of these operators/trainers if Russia has another catastrophic rout.

What is going to happen is Iran getting sanctioned even harder... somehow.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

I mean Iran doesn't have much to lose, they're already sanctioned to hell and back anyway.

Iran really flip-flopped on this though, they didn't recognize the annexation in 2014, and even went through real efforts to compensate Ukraine after accidentally shooting down AUI 752 back when Trump was flipping a coin on whether to start a war with Iran.

But then they abstained in denouncing this year's invasion in March, and now are actively supporting Russia's war of conquest. I guess the Supreme Leader figured if Russia was going to be his only friend, he had to do something real now to support that.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

D-Pad posted:

Everybody saying different things about the dragons teeth and how the tanks can or cannot handle them easily makes me think of the disagreements about tanks on the War Thunder forums leading to classified specifications getting leaked no less than 3 (and maybe 4?) separate times.

There are ways to deal with them, and that depends on how well they've actually been deployed. If they're properly buried, if they have mines supporting them etc. But key point 1 is certain, they will slow an attacking force down, the question of "for how long" depends on a lot of variables even in ideal circumstances.

And key point 1 leads to key point 2; slowing an attacker down is only useful if the defender is capable of taking advantage. Which given the state of Russia's forces is an open question as well.

So yeah, lot of factors we don't know, we'll find out whenever Ukraine gets around to assaulting this position. Or you know, they might just go around or cut off supplies and make it irrelevant.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009
If anything this is likely to do good things for Europe in the future, not being attached at the hip to a dictator's gas supplies and building up more green energy independence as a necessary fix to that.

But yes it will be a few tough years and as we're seeing in the UK this has massive implications for political parties. I don't think anyone knows where exactly that will lead, each country has its own issues both economic and political. But Europe has a massive and diverse economy and way better demographics than Russia or China. So while they may be in for some bad times, they're very likely to fare better than their main strategic competitors.

This will be a massive boon for the US if the US doesn't implode itself via stupidity... again.

Orthanc6 fucked around with this message at 01:49 on Oct 25, 2022

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Owling Howl posted:

No one since Gorbachev has done more for US hegemony than Putin.

Evidently Putin looked at the 2 decade experiment the US just finished in the Middle East, AND Russia's own excursion in Afghanistan, and thought to himself that all of these "Empire shoots it's own junk off" events were little league stuff. He'll show us the true meaning of empire collapse.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I imagine the last time Russia built trench lines in their home territory, like they're doing outside Belgorod now, was WW2. So much winning.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

KitConstantine posted:

Note: quoted account is a good source for foreign policy I do NOT endorse all or even most of their opinions. Morning phrasing

And Russia hasn't been open to negotiations in public since the Turkey round of talks fell through. They've been quoted as saying they were open via backchannels but this is the first time in a while where an official openness has been expressed

Not saying it's an appealing or sincere offer but they are actually making one

Well that is notable for being a return to open gestures, but yeah, still moot cause no one will or should start open negotiations without Ukraine. Russia's "diplomacy" is literally just to waste everyone's time, and bring in the useful idiots who are broke-brained enough to buy any of it. We might as well play white noise over all their statements at the UN until Putin croaks.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Scratch Monkey posted:

What's the next logical objective? Establish a bridgehead across the Dnipro, take Nova Kakhovka, and secure the dam and the highway towards Melitopol?

Secure/demine the dam and bridges for sure, but given the season and geography I'm of the opinion it would be better to just hold the Dnipro once Kherson is liberated. Then start building up the next offense from Zaporizhzhia towards Melitopol. Attacking south from Kherson would give Ukraine the same supply issues Russians in Kherson have been experiencing.


edit: what they said lol

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Bremen posted:

I had heard that if Ukraine retook Kherson they'd be able to cut off the fresh water to Crimea again. If that's true it's not a war winner on its own but it's one more way to bleed Russia.

Yes the aqueduct that supplies Crimea starts right next to the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, same dam Russia's been threatening to blow up via accusing Ukraine of wanting to blow up. If Kherson is liberated, Ukraine will have control of their side of this dam. All they'd have to do is lower the reservoir in a controlled manner far enough for water to no longer reach the entrance of the Crimean aqueduct. They used to have a dam blocking off this entrance but Russia reopened it when the war started. Ukraine might prefer to rebuild this blockage instead, but that would mean keeping troops on the south side of the Dnipro and as discussed, suffer the same supply issues there they've been imposing on Russia.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009
If your point is against the wording of calling the side that Russia is on as "their" , that is Russia's side, then yes it is Ukraine's, not Russia, all the way down to the Kerch Bridge. But practically, Russia's army is on the opposite side and Ukraine's army will have to plan how to establish themselves on that territory, which legally belongs to Ukraine, but does not physically belong to them at this moment.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Pook Good Mook posted:

What are y'all talking about? Ukraine controlled all major river crossing except Kherson, and assuming the news is true, will soon control Kherson.

They don't need to cross the Dnieper at Kherson to engage in offensive operations in the East. They've been engaging in offensives in the East since September. Why does everyone assume Ukraine is going to go through a meat grinder at Kherson when they have access to the eastern bank from Zaporizhzia all the way up to the Belarussian border? Yes, they will at some point have to clear out the Russians from all territory, but why is everyone assuming they can't attack from any position east of the river that they want?

I said in my first post on the subject I expect them to attack from Zaporizhzhia next, exactly because they do control that and it's on the east side of the river already. All I'm saying about Kherson is that once they take it, it seems wise to hold it and not attack south from it because it is an extremely narrow corridor across the Dnipro and yes, they already have a much wider corridor back at Zaporizhzhia to attack from instead.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Pook Good Mook posted:

A fair number of people still say things like "Upper Nile" and "Lower Nile" which actually means "Southern" and "Northern" respectively. It's far more common in places that were mapped/settled prior to the advent of railroads.

Ditto in Canada. As a kid I was always confused why the southern-most part of the country used to be called "Upper Canada". It's up the Saint-Lawrence river, so what is now Quebec was downstream and thus "Lower Canada" once the Brit's took it

The left-bank/right-bank did take a moment to get used to but it makes a lot of sense once you think about it. Thanks to Tim Snyder for explaining this like a month ago.

Closer to the topic, Ukraine has all the reason to be extremely cautious, but I'd say the retreat is real and the Russian's hiding around the city are just there to cover the retreat in the safest way possible. It would really suck if it's a false retreat and they want to force Ukraine into crawling urban warfare, I certainly wouldn't put it past them. But announcing a retreat publicly seems more dangerous to Putin's regime than fighting in Kherson to the last man, so I'm guessing it's real because it seems dumb to lie here.

Also even if the order was to stay and make the city a giant Trojan horse, I wouldn't trust the troops to actually know that. If the troops see a bunch of their guys dropping uniforms and disappearing into the woodwork I imagine a bunch of them will take the chance to go AWOL or surrender.

EDIT: trenching in Crimea:
https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1590405121808400384?s=20&t=Mx_lIQ4BmLIRaCrQNZLqeA

Orthanc6 fucked around with this message at 19:56 on Nov 9, 2022

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009
Cool so a full 6% of the newly mobilized could become POW's in like a day if that 20K trapped is at all accurate. Even worse if a substantial number of those are from "better" trained units from earlier in the war

It sure won't end things, but that's a LOT of very needed manpower to lose in one go.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Deltasquid posted:

Nothing a second mobilization wave can’t fix!

What was it like 70K men that fled Russia during mobilization wave 1? It'll be fun to see Mob Wave 2: No-economy-boogaloo result in more people fleeing than being recruited.

It's a weird but nice feeling that, due to delays in info getting out, it's entirely possible Kherson is already liberated. I'd be surprised if clearing it lasts a week from all the news we're hearing today. Especially with truly historic orders like "grab clothes off the clotheslines and run in some direction, I don't care which"

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Pablo Bluth posted:

It's also more or less the maximum possible distance away they could move it.

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1591295578352361474/photo/1

A truly historic moving of goalposts.

I'm sure Putin's real happy that his failson of an army had to completely cut off their own access to their freshly annexed regional capital. And sure, the front-line just shrunk a bunch for Russia, but that's a very 2-edged sword. With such a hard barrier defending the majority of the Dnipro now, I imagine a lot of these Ukrainian counter-attackers will be showing up south of Zhaporizhzhia real soon. And the defenders at Bakmut will be real happy to get some fresh backup.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

saratoga posted:

It blocks the approaches to Mykolaiv, a major sea port, so securing it is probably economically (if not militarily) important.

I suppose the threat of Ukraine forces on the left bank is enough to both force Russia to commit forces to defend it, forces that would otherwise be heading off to Bakmut now. And that threat also means Russia can't put their artillery as close to the river as they would otherwise. So even without turning it into a full-on attack, the presence of limited Ukrainian forces on the left bank has some use.

If it's a light, mobile force they can pick up and go with ease, and to aid that they got lots of US intel to warn them of Russia's moves. So this seems only a bit bold but not crazy, if true.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Sekenr posted:

Zelensky done a cool move by visiting Kherson.
1. Slap in the face to bullshit acession referendi
2. Once again visual difference from bunker-dwellers

It's insanely historic having the country's leader show up in a liberated city within a day or 2 of enemy forces leaving. Like liberation of France historic. This guy was an actor a few years ago and now he's a permanent fixture of history textbooks.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

Dumb question, with all of his public appearances why doesn't Putin just send a suicidal bomb drone?

I imagine videos of Zelenskyy, even from Kyiv, are only sent out after he has left the area. The war started with assassin squads trying to kill him and his family in Kyiv, and Ukrainian security services kept him safe. There's probably over a thousand people working to keep him safe these days.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

mmkay posted:

A lost Russian missile seems to have killed 2 people in a polish village, though nothing official yet. PM did call the polish security council an hour or so ago, though.

https://twitter.com/wolski_jaros/status/1592575790390345729?cxt=HHwWgoDUgcvP-5ksAAAA

Accidentally setting off Article 5 cause your missiles suck too bad.

2 people dying probably won't set off anything right away, but I could see Poland calling for something like "no strikes west of the Dnipro" to a no-fly-zone. It's surprising how much countries can let slide, like the shooting down of M-17 didn't bring anyone in to the war in 2014. But Russia just killed people in exactly the wrong country at exactly the wrong time.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Chalks posted:

You could imagine NATO countries using their domestic air defences to shoot down Russian missiles that come within range. Covering a bunch of territory along the Ukrainian border incidentally since Russia can't be trusted to hit poo poo in the same country as their target.

This is what I'm thinking, not a no-fly-zone for all of Ukraine, but establishing one over a radius of Ukraine near NATO borders. Would still be a giant escalation and 2 people might not tip it over, but Poland is going to be PISSED and they are one of Ukraine's most aggressive supporters.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

KitConstantine posted:

As for why that town - there's a Ukrainian water treatment plant essentially due East of the city in Poland that was hit - just north of Sokal in Lviv Oblast. And Russia was demonstrably targeting infrastructure today :shrug:

I don't see any other reasons why a missile would be in that area unless there's some kind of military installation nearby that isn't listed publically. It's fairly far north of Lviv proper and too far west of the main power installations in the area I could find

Russia wants to deprive all of Ukraine of all basic necessities, I don't think it's even so much a "terror" operation anymore, I think Russia is trying to degrade Ukraine's fighting ability by destroying all of its infrastructure.

I agree that a no-fly-zone is still an extreme reaction, but I'm trying to think what practical steps would actually stop Russia from further endangering the people of Poland. And seeing what lengths Russia has been willing to go to in Ukraine, and all the crimes they're happy to commit, I don't think there's any diplomatic method to ensure that safety. At least not one anyone with 2 brain cells would trust to work at all. Poland is having an emergency session we probably have to wait a few hours to hear anything from them.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

cinci zoo sniper posted:

The full statement is vague in a rather technical sense

I mean technically they could have been fired from Belarus, though I imagine he wouldn't bother with this distinction unless they believed it was the military of Belarus firing them, but that would be bizarre and extreme.

So sounds like it was most likely an accident with Ukrainian AA missiles then. If they are S-300's, even more reason to give them more western AA. Not that any system is perfect.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

WarpedLichen posted:

Fun little puff piece from Canada about the Senator armored car they're shipping to Ukraine:
https://globalnews.ca/news/9280476/canada-armoured-vehicles-ukraine/

It's a neat little reminder of how the western MIC is managing to make a profit on the war outside of the direct transfer of equipment.

Hiring a bunch of Ukrainian refugees so they can help make armored cars to defend their homeland is honestly a super cool move. Also, I have zero idea how a modern automotive factory works, but this one seems rather hands on, so increasing production would definitely need a large influx of workers.

Also glad to hear the AFV's that are being made in London, ON are getting sent to Ukraine. I used to live in London and I was a bit ticked to learn we were exporting a bunch of those to Saudi Arabia.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

spankmeister posted:

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1594763517625868293

Kinburn operation now happening in earnest, according to Kyiv Independent.

Maybe they see that Russia is pulling back enough to take advantage. There's been reports that troops have been moving to the Luhansk front, probably because it's been Russia's only "success" since like, March.

Also, Canadian's can now buy "Ukrainian Sovereignty Bonds":

https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2022/11/ukraine-sovereignty-bond-now-available-for-canadians-to-purchase.html

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

spankmeister posted:

All I see is F16's that should be flying over Ukraine tbh.

Hard agree. Russia is trying to kill all of Ukraine now. First it was replace their government, then it was terrify their people. Now they're trying to physically break the country all at once. They can't take the land so they're killing it; no heat, water, light or internet for this whole winter.

Ukraine is telling their civilians to leave everywhere, this is going to double the humanitarian and refugee catastrophes. This is the time for the next rung on the ladder, which really isn't that much of a escalation; open the floodgates on sending stockpiled western jets and tanks. Western weapons have been killing Russian's for months, it will not make a political difference. The odds of them being used for anything else are next to nil. If Taiwan kicks off those Abrams will still sit there, sending them to Ukraine is the best value I can imagine for them. Start training Ukrainians on the things now. F-16's will be a lot more of a process, but it's time to start.

I doubt this, but I have a small hope that some of the troops training in the UK were trained on some NATO armor system. The morale boost alone for Ukrainian soldiers getting their hands on a few Abrams or Leopard 2's would be amazing. Ukraine has to win this, and they can even without a single NATO troop being there. We should stop pissing about.

Orthanc6 fucked around with this message at 02:56 on Nov 24, 2022

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Popete posted:

Ukraine is still operating aircraft off of roads and other makeshift airfield right? That's doable with a small air force but not so much one big enough to really have air superiority.

I don't think you could just dump an entire air force into Ukraine and not have them blown up on the ground by cruise missiles. You need a lot of maintenance and dedicate repair facilities to manage an air force and you can't just hide that stuff in a relatively small country like Ukraine.

If it were as simple as give Ukraine F-16s and they win the war it probably would be have been done by now.

The tanks are needed a lot more. I don't think they have enough good pilots to fly enough jets to achieve air superiority, even if they train some up for a year. But every bit helps. Especially since they are already contesting the air space with all the ground-AA scattered everywhere. I think more jets would be useful just for opening up more long-range strikes, like when they got some airstikes off on Snake Island after Moskva was converted to a submarine.

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5