[Ukraine] another dawn is breaking in Mosciv and it's still Russian

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Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

Thank goodness that I can now return to my habit of rapidly skimming through the hundreds of daily posts here looking to see if anything actually significant has happened in the war.

# ¿ Nov 3, 2022 23:15

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# ¿ May 12, 2024 05:09

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

I've said this before but it amazes me how you just can't get any basic reporting on the progress of the war in Western media. Like, where the front lines are, what the main military formations are along them, where movement is or is not happening etc. It's all either completely disconnected stuff like: "Missile hits building" or planted stories straight from Western militaries and intelligence agencies like this one, currently on the front page of the Guardian:

Russia-Ukraine war live news: Russia likely threatening to shoot retreating soldiers, says UK defence ministry

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...r-after-strikes

quote:

"Recently, Russian generals likely wanted their commanders to use weapons against deserters, including possibly authorising shooting to kill such defaulters after a warning had been given. Generals also likely wanted to maintain defensive positions to the death.

The tactic of shooting deserters likely attests to the low quality, low morale and indiscipline of Russian forces.�

# ¿ Nov 4, 2022 08:34

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

Chewbaccanator posted:

I welcome a new thread but sincerely hope this lovely war is over soon and we have to find something else to shitpost about inshallah.

This thread is but a light-hearted dress rehearsal for the inevitable China invades Taiwan thread in 2024.

# ¿ Nov 4, 2022 18:31

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

Nothing to see here, just the Guardian reporting approvingly on the drive to eliminate Russian culture from Ukraine:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/07/kyiv-ukrainians-culture-war-russian-decolonisation

Not included in the article: any acknowledgment that approximately a quarter of Ukrainians speak Russian as their first language, or how this drive might influence their opinions on whether they have any future in Ukraine as things currently stand.

# ¿ Nov 8, 2022 11:18

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

How do you 'decolonise' your nation from Russian culture, when 14 million of your citizens speak Russian as their first language? Better not think too carefully about what that would involve, hey?

# ¿ Nov 8, 2022 11:30

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

If Russia thinks that it can't hold Kherson, even with all the extra troops that they've called up, the military situation must be a lot grimmer than they've admitted to. Like other posters have said, I can't believe they'd casually abandon the city, after expending so much time and effort to capture it in the 1st place. Is this them settling into easily defensible positions for the winter and trying to wait the Ukrainians out?

# ¿ Nov 9, 2022 17:08

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

Just looked at Russia Today and in the article there they're basically admitting that they were in a precarious position in Kherson and didn't want to risk their forces on the right bank getting completely cut off.

# ¿ Nov 9, 2022 17:11

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

Starsfan posted:

I mean they didn't spend all that much time or energy capturing it in the first place, they kind of just strolled in on like day 3 of the conflict because the Ukrainian army was so dysfunctional at the start of the conflict.

Oh right, I might have been thinking of of Mariupol or something.

# ¿ Nov 9, 2022 18:30

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

Seatbelts posted:

I love this style of storytelling; I wish more modern historical events where captured this way.

how do you think they decided who had to place the bridge footings? miss me with that job.

I like the guy with the biggest hat who's gesturing to the dudes carrying the planks like: "There! There! Right at the end of the bridge, that's where they're needed!"

# ¿ Nov 9, 2022 22:46

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

I for one am shocked that Russia's strategy of occupying a chunk of Ukraine on a shoestring budget, then sitting back and waiting for the enemy to come to the negotiating table hasn't worked.

# ¿ Nov 10, 2022 07:52

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

I mean, if the intention of maintaining Russian forces in Ukraine is to force the Ukrainian government into a peace settlement on Russia's terms, what message does retreating from Kherson send? Why negotiate, if the impression is that Russia is on the back foot and that they can be pushed back to the border through purely military means? And from the Russian side, why start this war, if you're just going to half-rear end it? Why prolong it? Is the plan really just to sit tight and wait the Ukrainians out, 'cos it certainly doesn't look like the Ukrainians have any intention of throwing the towel in.

Can someone with a better understanding than me explain, 'cos I really don't get it lol.

# ¿ Nov 10, 2022 10:19

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

I guess one of the things confusing me was that in previous conflicts (Georgia 2008, Crimea 2014 and Syria 2015-2016), Russia had clear and limited objectives and in each case was able to deploy the necessary forces to achieve them. What they're doing in Ukraine seems much more incoherent by comparison.

# ¿ Nov 10, 2022 12:31

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

It's also hard to judge, when Russian objectives remain so opaque. We know that Ukraine 'wins' if they can force a Russian withdrawal but what does a Russian 'win' even look like? Regime change in Kiev? Complete occupation of the country? Partition? A peace treaty on Russia's terms, where Ukraine agrees devolution for majority Russian regions and commits to never joining NATO?

I'm starting to think that they may be going for a permanent 'frozen' conflict, Korean peninsula style but that would hinge on Ukraine being willing to play along with that, which seems pretty optimistic as things stand.

# ¿ Nov 10, 2022 12:49

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

Lostconfused posted:

Russian objectives are very simple, it's whatever they can get. Starting with regime change in Kyiv to full annexation of Ukraine. Regime change clearly didn't happen and now they're onto annexing parts of Ukrainian territory they can occupy right now.

*Putin and his cronies knocking back vodkas late at night at the Kremlin*

"Screw it, let's just invade and see how it pans out!"

# ¿ Nov 10, 2022 16:43

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

Hmm, I wonder what's going on behind the scenes.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/11/10/ukraine-urged-grasp-window-opportunity-peace-talks-russia/

quote:

The US is urging Ukraine to use a "window of opportunity" for peace talks to end the war, as world leaders prepare for a showdown with Vladimir Putin at next week�s G20 summit.

A top US general said a lull in fighting over winter might open the door to a negotiated settlement, as White House officials hold direct talks with the Kremlin.

It comes as Russia started a major withdrawal from Kherson, allowing Ukraine to advance on the only regional capital Moscow captured earlier this year.

Joe Biden�s administration has been privately telling Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, to drop his refusal to talk with Russia, it was reported last week

On Thursday, Jake Sullivan, the US national security adviser, denied pressuring Ukraine to make concessions. But the senior Biden official has made a surprise visit to Kyiv in recent days and has been speaking directly with the Kremlin, according to US media.

# ¿ Nov 11, 2022 09:25

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

Frosted Flake posted:

*'I do not entertain the hope always to be able to keep the Hungarian regiments up to full complement with just volunteers' (Archduke Charles). To find 'volunteers', recruitment parties would take performers dressed in elaborate clothes to dance at local fairs. 'They started with slow and measured steps and it then became more energetic. The performers would clap their hands, slap them on their boots and then bring their heels sharply together until...the peasants became enthusiastic and joined in...the soldiers would add something for the sake of effect...not ceasing until their spurs are shattered and...overcome by fatigue.' Enthusiastic peasants would be invited to volunteer and soon found themselves being marched off. Another ruse shown here involved a gypsy band, lots of wine and girls. Stopping in the marketplaces, the gypsies played, the wine was free and girls with shakos on their heads invited the boys to dance. If, while dancing, the girl was able to put the shako on the boy's head, he was considered a volunteer. In his holiday clothes, this Slavonian peasant from the Neutra district, home of IR2, is about to join up courtesy of a local peasant girl. Anyone objecting was swiftly manacledand marched away.

So much more sneaky than the British tradition of getting peasants shitfaced drunk and signing them up once they were in too much of a state to think clearly about it.

(Love this pic, by the way. My favorite dude is the nervous, hesitant guy who's clearly also starting to think about it, and his horrified girlfriend trying to draw him away from the recruiter.)

# ¿ Nov 11, 2022 14:52

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

speng31b posted:

RWA extremely mad that Russia won't formally declare war on NATO and attack them for their material support of Ukraine

https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1592504259203182592

Sorry, this is the Vietnam thread now.

# ¿ Nov 15, 2022 16:48

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

Yeah, it looks like Russia is going to hunker down for the winter and see how things have developed by next year. I guess whether that's good sense comes down to whether you think Russia or Ukraine will be under the greater pressure come the spring.

# ¿ Nov 17, 2022 11:08

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

Atrocious Joe posted:

I've played enough RTS games to know that there might be one or two more factions still to be unveiled in this campaign

secretly attacking a nuclear power station seems like an elf move.

I'm imagining the big reveal where we find out there was a cloaked elf base next to the power station the whole time and then the cutscene where Putin and Zelensky reluctantly agree an alliance of convenience against the common enemy.

# ¿ Nov 21, 2022 22:36

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

Frosted Flake posted:

Not that it absolves the planning. If you’re trying to pull off a coup de grace, it seems reasonable to always go in with a force bigger than you think you have to. That was a major difference between intervention in Hungary, where the first force was too small and bogged down in bloody fighting and Czechoslovakia which went off without a hitch and hardly a shot fired.

Yeah, Civ 4 taught me that if you invade another Civ half-assed, without building a big enough attacking force and shifting all your cities over to producing military units then your invasion will simply stall out, the enemy Civ will chip away at your doom stack until it becomes ineffective and then they'll counter-invade with a bigger, better doom stack of their own.

Putin's obviously never played Civ 4 is what I'm saying.

# ¿ Nov 22, 2022 16:23

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

gradenko_2000 posted:

this is extremely correct

That feeling of despair when you're down to a few badly damaged attacking units and then the enemy rush-builds a fresh unit of Archers

# ¿ Nov 22, 2022 16:54

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

V. Illych L. posted:

one thing which really irritates me about the coverage of this war is how crude a lot of the propaganda is - basically the mode of operation is that ukraine can make outlandish claims and they will be reported as 'ukraine (or "anonymous intelligence source" or whatever) claims X' in between 'glib (13) became a symbol of ukrainian resistance. this is his story' pieces and histrionics about how unprecedented russian attacks on ukrainian electric infrastructure are

Most people experience 'the news' as a background hum of headlines and soundbites: very few people have the curiosity (and time, and energy) to dig deeper and review the publicly available information that would indicate that any one particular story is correct or incorrect. So long as the hum is tending in a certain direction, people will absorb that as an opinion without necessarily being aware that they're doing so: "What do you mean that HIMARS haven't transformed the war in Ukraine's favour? Everyone knows that they have, silly!"

# ¿ Nov 25, 2022 10:19

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

For example, if I'd never read this thread, I'd have no appreciation of the importance of artillery in state vs state warfare and would be blithely assuming that Ukraine had an inherent advantage due to having more bods with rifles in the field than the Russians did. I wouldn't know, and wouldn't even know that I didn't know lol.

# ¿ Nov 25, 2022 10:23

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

From today's Financial Times:

The FT posted:

Military briefing: Ukraine war exposes �hard reality� of west�s weapons capacity

Nearly 10 months into Russia�s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the allies that have backed Kyiv�s war effort are increasingly concerned by the struggle to ramp up ammunition production as the conflict chews through their stockpiles.

At stake is not only the west�s ability to continue supplying Ukraine with the weapons it needs but also allies� capacity to show adversaries such as China that they have an industrial base that can produce sufficient weaponry to mount a credible defence against possible attack.

�Ukraine has focused us . . . on what really matters,� William LaPlante, the Pentagon�s chief weapons� buyer, told a recent conference at George Mason University. �What matters is production. Production really matters.�

After sending more than $40bn of military support to Ukraine, mostly from existing stocks, Nato members� defence ministries are discovering that dormant weapons production lines cannot be switched on overnight. Increasing capacity requires investment, which in turn depends on securing long-term production contracts.

The US has sent about a third of its stock of Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine, and a third of its stockpile of anti-aircraft Stinger missiles. But it has little prospect of being able to replace these quickly. �There�s no question that . . . [supplying Ukraine] has put pressure on our defence industrial base,� Colin Kahl, US under-secretary of defence for policy, said last month.

The UK has turned to a third party, which it has declined to identify, to restock its depleted stores of NLAW anti-tank missiles. �There are some really hard realities that we have been forced to learn,� James Heappey, armed forces minister, said in October.

Weapons stocks in many European countries are even skimpier. When France sent six Caesar self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine in October, it could only do so by diverting a Danish order for the high-tech artillery.

There are two main reasons why western nations are struggling to source fresh military supplies, defence officials and corporate executives said.

The first is structural. Since the end of the cold war, these countries have reaped a peace dividend by slashing military spending, downsizing defence industries and moving to lean, �just-in-time� production and low inventories of equipment such as munitions. That is because combating insurgents and terrorists did not require the same kind of heavy weaponry needed in high-intensity land conflicts.

Ukraine has up-ended that assumption. During intense fighting in the eastern Donbas region this summer, Russia used more ammunition in two days than the British military has in stock. Under Ukrainian rates of artillery consumption, British stockpiles might last a week and the UK�s European allies are in no better position, according to a report by the Royal United Services Institute think-tank in London.

�The west has a problem with constrained defence industrial capacity,� said Mick Ryan, a former major general in the Australian army. �A major industrial expansion programme will be required if the nations of the west are to rebuild the capacity to design, produce and stockpile . . . large quantities of munitions.�

The second factor is bureaucratic. Governments say they are committed to bigger defence budgets. Yet, amid so much economic uncertainty, they have been slow to write the multiyear procurement contracts that defence groups need to accelerate production.

�It�s a corporate finance problem,� said a senior European defence official. �No company wants to invest in a second factory line to boost production without long-term, contractual certainty. Will Russia still be a threat in five years and, if it�s not, will governments still be buying arms from the companies then?�

This lack of certainty holds on both sides of the Atlantic, corporate executives say. Saab, the Swedish defence and aerospace company which makes NLAWs and Gripen fighter jets, says it has been in talks with several governments about new orders but progress on signing contracts has been slow.

�When it comes to order intake directly connected to Ukraine . . . very little has really emerged or happened,� said Saab chief executive Micael Johansson. �I am sure it will come . . . but the contracting procedures are still quite slow.�

Britain�s BAE Systems also says it is �in talks� with the UK government about ramping up output of a number of munitions, while US defence companies have similar complaints about the lack of a clear �demand signal� from Washington.

�They are in a situation of �show me the money�,� said Mark Cancian, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. �What they [the defence companies] are worried about is that they will expand capacity, then the war will end and the defence department will cut the contracts.�

Kathy Warden, chief executive of Northrop Grumman, said the Pentagon�s procurement procedures � which give a �very choppy demand signal� to build up stockpiles but only after a conflict rapidly depletes them � are not a model that is �going to make sense� if the aim is sustained investment in production.

Some defence manufacturers are already producing at full capacity, with shifts running 24 hours a day.

�When we have a clear understanding of what the demand signal is going to be . . . we are willing to fund expansion of capacity,� said Frank St John, chief operating officer of Lockheed Martin, which makes Himar artillery rocket systems and Javelins.

Western officials say that supplying Ukraine has not jeopardised their own countries� military readiness, while Russian military shortages are far worse. Moscow is having to source weapons such as artillery shells and drones from North Korea and Iran.

Yet while there is a near-consensus across Nato, especially its European members, of the need to bulk up their militaries and defence industries, companies can only proceed once they have more contractual certainty.

�Contracts matter. Money . . . matters,� said the Pentagon�s LaPlante. �Once [defence companies] see that we�re going to put money [into orders] . . . they�ll get it, that�s their job.�

The UK has enough ammo stocked to last for 1 week of actual warfare, provided they don't go too wild lol.

# ¿ Dec 2, 2022 07:51

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

crepeface posted:

ah yes, that famously slashed military budget of the US

Yeah, that's more a Europe thing. The US has a gigantic budget, they just piss it all away on billion dollar gizmos rather than anything actually useful.

# ¿ Dec 2, 2022 08:37

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

Ardennes posted:

Yeah, once Ukraine-mania fell off during the summer, it seems the war has remained out of sight and out of mind. That said, I don't think it really changes anything.

There's still lots of bloodthirsty comments getting posted on news websites but I've not heard anyone in the real world mention Ukraine for months. I do wonder how many of those posts can be directly sourced to western intelligence operations doing their bit to guide the narrative.

# ¿ Dec 3, 2022 12:25

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

Remember folks, if you strike, you're striking for Putin.

# ¿ Dec 4, 2022 20:01

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

supersnowman posted:

The people who think Putin's death will mean a collapse for Russia are setting themselves up for a rude awakening if a hardliner actually take power after Putin.

People are continually bombarded with propaganda headlines about "Putin's Russia" and "Putin's war": you can forgive them for assuming that if Putin just goes, everything would basically be good again. The war can't be discussed in western media in terms of competing power blocs: instead, it's highly individualised as all being down to one man's baffling insane criminality.

# ¿ Dec 9, 2022 20:55

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

The West's already sending more stuff than it can spare to Ukraine: we've got nothing left to send to Kosovo lol. Can't believe NATO will be eager to open a 2nd front down there.

# ¿ Dec 11, 2022 22:51

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

Zeroisanumber posted:

Should just let the Germans off the chain and have panzers rolling around in SE Europe again. Scare the crap out of everyone.

Edit: But, no. Any of the mid-tier NATO nations could knock Serbia's dick into the dirt if they want to.

Tell that to the Austro-Hungarian empire.

# ¿ Dec 11, 2022 23:51

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

DancingShade posted:

I think Europe should return to a catapult and halberd based military since it seems like the only type they can competently operate in a modern environment without supply and maintenance issues.

Looking forward to the new generation of halberds being issued to the British military that cost £60k each, breakdown outside of a narrowly defined temperature range and only work when they're connected to the internet.

# ¿ Dec 20, 2022 13:08

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

Incidentally, just been looking at where the British army gets its artillery shells from and they appear to be manufactured at a single, not very big factory on the edge of Newcastle. Can't imagine there's much scope for ramping up production there lol.

# ¿ Dec 20, 2022 13:20

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

I was a bit surprised to see that it's right next to a residential area: you'd think they'd at least stick a facility like that in a big empty field somewhere.

# ¿ Dec 20, 2022 13:42

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

Frosted Flake posted:

The Viking Age lasted in total only 270 years. Each of the countries affected has been Christian for at least three times as long. If we look at them 270 years ago, in 1750, they were Viking or Pagan in no way shape or form. I mean, to the point of it being comical to consider. So, why not create an entire identity around that? They were even at war with Russia.

The reason is that Christianity is too Jewish for this kind of white nationalism and all of the make believe bullshit and howling at the moon comes after the �runic� symbols and belief in �ancestry� which is just Nazi iconography and blood and soil dressed up to provide a veneer of legitimacy.

lol the Vikings won their greatest glories after conversion to Christianity anyways, it�s all so stupid.

Christ, imagine marching through the snow in those 18th century stacked heel buckled shoes.

In fact, imagine marching in them in any weather conditions.

# ¿ Dec 26, 2022 09:19

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

I'm wondering what the Russian perspective is for 2023. Are they content for a stalemated war to rumble on more or less indefinitely? Or are they calculating that Ukraine simply cannot sustain operations at this intensity and will be forced to come to terms later in the year? Or are they planning a big Spring offensive to materially change the current situation on the ground?

# ¿ Jan 6, 2023 10:48

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

When the thread's arguing about posters, I take that as an indication that there's not much going on with the actual war.

# ¿ Jan 10, 2023 13:36

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

Slavvy posted:

Wrong. It means china is going to drag Russia down with it as it collapses, which it definitely will, imminently, for the past fifteen years

# ¿ Jan 13, 2023 10:19

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

Hedenius posted:

The Coming Collapse of China was published in 2001.

I know lol, I saw him in a right wing UK newspaper recently, still pushing the same narrative and that's what made me think of him now.

# ¿ Jan 13, 2023 13:51

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

Here in the UK, nurses striking over repeated real-terms pay cuts have been called Putin enablers, and trades unions are portrayed in the press as basically taking orders from Moscow.

# ¿ Jan 17, 2023 11:36

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# ¿ May 12, 2024 05:09

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

V. Illych L. posted:

apparently the ukrainian minister of the interior died in a helicopter accident (or "accident", depending on how conspiratorial you want to be about it)

Helicopters are known for crashing; on the other hand, if it was shot down, I bet the Ukrainian government wouldn't admit it.

Does it make any material difference that this one guy's died? Don't know how important he was in the greater scheme of things.

# ¿ Jan 18, 2023 11:07

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > [Ukraine] another dawn is breaking in Mosciv and it's still Russian

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