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TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”

epic bacon posted:

man i thought this QB draft class was supposed to be one of the best ever, what happened

It is better than last year’s! We just need to start accepting that Lawrence and Luck years are in fact once in a decade.

I’m working on my annual write ups. If I’m tiering them early:

- Stroud/Young
- Levis
Drop
- Richardson
Drop
- Hooker/Daniels
- McKee
- Jefferson

First 3 are gonna be some interesting plays on prototypes—no one’s perfect. Everything else is a deeply weird lottery ticket or some intensely cope old dudes.

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TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”

Ironic Twist posted:

Thank you for the new draft thread, also, I keep seeing some people have Cam Ward from Wazzu in the same QB tier as Richardson and Hooker, someone tell me why he sucks and is bad

I have barely watched his tape so far relative to the guys on the list—don’t mistake anything for definitive yet, but my first impression is that he runs about as Mickey Mouse of an offense as Hooker but has way more natural talent in his arm while having way worse feet because he just kinda swashbuckles around.

He’s probably gonna exist somewhere in those tiers but this is a great class if you have a QB coach with a god complex who believes he can make the next Josh Allen or Mahomes. Or if you want a guy who is 26 and probably thinking about mortgage rates and sensible lawn care more than the average rookie should.

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”

Ornery and Hornery posted:

The rough consensus is that currently there are 4 qbs worth gambling a first on. There is some variance in where draft ins are valuing the bottom
2 of those 4; Levis and Richardson.

Then there’s a second tier some discussion of the qb prospects from Tennessee and Stanford.

To be clear, the only 1 of the 4 where I question if they would’ve been QB1 last year is Richardson. And that’s something I can be talked into pretty easily.

On early read, this class looks a lot like 2018 to me. There’s a depth of like 4 dudes that meet what I would call the minimum standard. None of them are an obvious 1 in quite the way 2021 was. None of them inspire me to think there are absolutely more the 3-4 who can be franchise guys. In many ways, this is just a better version of last years class where the fits are probably going to doom 2-3 of these guys and lock in 1 as a franchise guy because of how weird they are. Some early teasers:

- Bryce Young would probably be the clear QB1 if he was 3 inches taller and more comfortable ripping his vertical balls. This is probably a matter of having Jamo/Metchie for a year and then having to adjust his game to not having that.

- CJ Stroud would probably be a clear QB1 if he ever looked comfortable making pre-snap reads in short field situations or feeling easy yards with his feet/non sideline check downs. You should not be able to fool a 2 year starter with cover 2 invert or bringing the house when he frequently gets a chance to cheat his reads with all the jet and orbit motion that offense allows.

- Will Levis would be a clear QB1 if he ever showed he could read consistently post-snap or feel pressure. He’s mechanically amazing when healthy and unpressured, but he has no feel for his edges and loses receivers in space when they go over the middle which shows a lack of recognition or trust in timing route.

- Anthony Richardson could be a clear QB1 if he ever showed any semblance of touch or technique downfield or any consistent ability to read when a coverage shell rotates/spins/inverts/disguises. The most easily fooled guy post snap because he couldn’t execute Mullen’s reduced professions or Napiers PA checks without just giving up and calling his own number.


All wildly different dudes with varying strengths, but you will get a real Rorschach test of everyone’s coaching staff as to what type of project they swing on and what they want to do.

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”

kiimo posted:

I thought it was basically common knowledge that this year's QB class was going to be significantly better than last year

We’re in the yearly phase of people going “THeSE gUYs SuCk!!!1” because no one is Andrew Luck or Trevor Lawrence, which some people are taking to mean that it’s just as bad. But yeah, if you’ve been paying attention, last year’s was like a rare kind of bad and even an average class would’ve been miles ahead.


Also a great draft if you believe you can spend a 4th rounder on a 26 year old and finally develop that missing part of his game! (Ignoring all the other missing parts)

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”
Tier 1 of the QB prospects effort post. I will probably adjust my reads of these guys over time, but this is my usual starting point for when I start looking at prospect comparisons. A reminder—calling someone Josh Allen as a prospect <> Josh Allen now.

Coleridge Bernard Stroud - Ohio State

Full disclosure, I have watched every single snap of his college career.

I like to start these with positive notes, so let’s consider his best attribute first. If you are trying to build a vertical stretch offense that uses your sidelines as a constraint, he might be one of the best prospects you’ll see. Of the big 4, he’s the only one that can throw deep to any third, with anticipation, at any speed necessary. Every other QB in the class struggles with at least one of those. If you look at some of his work in Mills, Scissors, or the Deep post, he is downright surgical in maximizing a receiver’s range and putting a ball where a defender may be close but not really able to contest. Watch the rose bowl, Michigan state games, or some of his throws against Utah to see what I mean.

Similarly, he unquestionably has an NFL arm. He’s never winning long throw or hard throw, but he’s more than capable of giving you speeds and angles in the Rodgers/Murray range. He’s shown those speed and angle changes within his release without having to change arm angles which indicates he’s very conscious of his release point and feels the ball well.

So what gives? Rare vertical ability without arm talent caveats of being a fastball guy or moonballer should theoretically mean he’s capable of doing the single hardest thing to do from day one. Well, there’s a question of the things he doesn’t do that makes me question how he works from day one.

First off, let’s talk about processing. For those who don’t remember my stupid effort post from last year, the Ohio State passing offense is a bit of an odd duck because of the parts it merges. Ryan Day is Kelly guy who loves motion and optionality to essentially guarantee any play can morph into something workable if the initial coverage would win. Think the option routes of the run and shoot, where you get away with it through superior pass blocking and receiving talent and don’t have to do things like half roll your QB to keep him alive. As such, his QBs tend to hold the ball a while by design. Fields was the most pronounced at this, but Stroud has the same eye discipline of staring downfield where he knows he will eventually have an opening, which he usually reads correctly and does.

Now, he makes good anticipation throws off those reads but even a nominal “failure” of holding the ball and reading is better than staring down a receiver or blindly throwing. Those both are decent percentage plays that won’t put your team in a bad position. That said it’s a play concept that is executed differently in the league. Tag/option routes are a thing, but the overall tendency is that you change things at the line and read things before the snap based on tendencies to simplify things and guarantee you’re on the same page with a receiver then apply that post-snap read in addition. Telling them to make a slant work depending on what coverage they see is a lot simpler than telling them to decide if a slant or sluggo is a better move—think of it as finding a hole or space. Usually the guy who gets the option routes in an NFL offense is an Amari Cooper or JaMarr Chase who runs clean and can attack at any field portion—you’re more willing to let other receivers specialize or run specific routes with the knowledge they should adjust them. So, that in mind, we need to consider that his work pre-snap is more important now while acknowledging that his post-snap reads get the ball largely to the correct spot. The problem is, what happens if your pre-snap work is wrong?

In big games and short yardage situations (red zone/4th down), CJ flatly misses obvious reads at the line. Watch Penn State or Notre Dame and you’ll see him get blitzed in moments where the pressure is obvious, but he’s too locked in on a space to change and doesn’t feel the pressure until it’s too late. I hesitate to call this failing under pressure, because it’s not a situation where he suddenly misses wildly or makes huge mistakes and often still makes great throws, but you don’t get extra points for making things harder on yourself. He compounds this by being a dude who absolutely hates checking down over the middle, which looks like a mixture of holding the ball long enough for inside defenders to crash and looking for the big play, despite the fact that just checking to the flat every time is less likely to get yardage than throwing the check when a guy hasn’t had a defender crash down. My theory is that he’s likely treating these situations with a QBs first lesson in dealing with blitzes—throw into the pressure. The problem is, that’s one of the easiest traps to set for a defensive coordinator, and it’s something that you theoretically should help solve for with protection calls so you can keep your receiving options instead. Sometimes, he gets around this by accident by just depending a drop or turning something into a half roll. The deep drop tends to work better just off of his ability to keep his body in a line, but the half roll is frustrating because his unwillingness to grab easy yardage means guys cheat backwards in scramble situations and make receivers work back.

This also brings me to my final major concern—what those checks at the line indicate. Remember, there are essentially two types of calls at the line: change the protection and change the play. If he’s missing protection calls, maybe he’s making audibles at the line to get favorable route combos in the vacated space to hit the constraint. Well, he somehow has fewer responsibilities there than Fields did. The coaches have openly said he only has limited audible control at the line and frequently send in “check with me” calls instead of letting him make the calls himself, which means they frequently run far too much play clock and get behind. This didn’t happen with Fields, or even Haskins for that matter. Those guys had near full audible control and were known for making quick glances pre-snap to take a favorable matchup or box. Maybe it’s a factor of reducing things to keep CJ loose or Day being a control freak, but it’s very very odd to me that a guy who is this good at narrow window throws and pattern recognition just isn’t trusted the same way as his predecessors at the line, especially when he has so many motion and shift controls that the offense has picked up which he clearly is told to key on.

From a purely physical profile, he probably needs to work on his feet as well. If you watch him miss long throws or feel pressed to get downfield, he will miss high more frequently than not. Two mechanical issues cause this. He will occasionally throw his own release point off by planting his back leg and dropping too far compared to his front leg (the Dwayne Haskins back foot special). Similarly, because he is aware of when he’s leaking power, he will wind up more than he needs to and do a half circle going up to his shoulder. On the Tebow scale, it’s about 1/3 of a Tebow, but it does make him occasionally predictable in the vertical game and cost him some rhythm and timing. Relative to other QBs, these are fairly small, I think he actually handles his steps and pocket footwork very well with just occasional overstepping leading to some of those back leg problems, but it is worth noting that he probably has a few extra MPH he could get on the ball without much work.

So what do I see as a good fit for him? Flatly, I would love him with someone in the Arians tree. He can handle the verticality and post-read work, maybe even some drop back play action to take advantage of his accuracy there. Just get him established in proper pre-read procedures and keep him from overthinking things. The McVay system gets credit at times for being training wheels, but it’s reliance on spacing the middle and cluster sets isn’t going to simplify things for a guy who hates checking down and is at his best throwing vertically—that system is predicated on horizontal stretches to create alleys that later turn vertical. Maybe you could consider something like what the Lions do iterating off of Payton’s stuff to let receivers work and take advantage of tag routes to avoid needing some of the tweener personnel. Alternatively, something like the Titans system that use motion and personnel to essentially create gravity in a passing game with odd pieces like TEs or RBs might make sense because he’s the type of QB who can actually do something with it long-term, even if it’s less user-friendly at the start due to the time it takes to develop feel on the narrower margin windows. Basically do anything to keep him away from Shannyball and the offense entirely predicated on 6 yard balls over the middle.

As a prospect, I like him as a more physically put-together Tua post snap—same type of point guard post-snap recognition mixed with bizarre lack of trust pre-snap and occasional self-inflicted difficulties from looking downfield or missing checks. I would also compare him to Derek Carr on some levels where I see his downfield and sideline ability as something potentially special but don’t love what he does in the first 5 yards of the field and worry that he falls in love with the 10+ yarder too much. Both of those guys came from a position of confidence and trusting their arms enough that they threw some rough picks in early in their careers, Carr from too tight of windows, Tua from too narrow for his soft moon balls. Carr has done better at cleaning that up but also has more margin inherent in his velocity. Stroud’s arm is in between those guys (if closer to Carr), but I do worry about that same initial correction when he doesn’t have utterly dominant receivers and has to adjust. The dolphins essentially had to retrain Tua to look at the middle and then realized even that wouldn’t work and grabbed some receivers so far you could just throw moon balls and play the hits. Carr, they just started letting him rip and realized turning 50/50 into 60/40 downfield would develop space elsewhere and gave him reps to figure it out. Stroud’s smart enough to figure it out, but those are important moments for patterning your game long-term. Definite first round guy, not worried about him as a first 16 prospect because he’s not any riskier than anything else we’ve seen there.

Bryce Young - Alabama

Do you remember Doug Flutie? Not in the sense of “designed QB run” but the guy who in the hands of a competent Madden player would scramble right and then throw downfield because anyone can get open after 6 seconds or escape downfield if you played blanket zone. Bryce comes as close to inspiring the antsy, annoyed feeling as any QB I’ve seen in a while. He’s more elusive than most running QBs not named Kyler Murray but not as deadly as Lamar, and he has just an uncanny ability to make fringe plays in space that feel like he’s always getting away with something. Dude has a lot of plays that he absolutely should have taken and been dead on (Texas) where he got away with it and made a big play. That is, in a sense, his entire game in a microcosm—getting away with a handful of things that should kill him because of game sense.

So let’s talk for a minute about escapability. For years, this was a roundabout way of saying a scrambling QB was less valuable because they took obvious hits in the open field and overused the ability to “give up” on reads as opposed to reading all 4 receivers on Spider Y Banana. “Oh what happens when someone makes him throw?” The answer for Bryce has historically been “he’s probably fine???” He routinely makes timing throws over the middle and at the sticks where I’m impressed at his ability in and out of the pocket to see and throw things that other QBs with his height disadvantage just haven’t done. Teams that contained him learned that he can step up and hit a seam or mesh guy. Teams that flush him learn he can figure out if the sky or hook defender doesn’t have the range to close the receiver on his side. If Stroud has a tendency to feel like a guy who has studied all the post-snap film, Bryce feels like a guy who studied all the pre-snap and breakdown plays. He even recognizes the vertical game, though I think the offense this year may have created some bad habits. You can see it in the year over year look at the offense, where the receivers go from having two extremely gifted space eaters who know when to sit down or beat a guy versus a bunch of physically talented receivers that just can’t put things together or improvise. In that sense, we should probably talk about Bryce as an individual before we start trying to assess his performances.

When I watch a guy who runs this well, there’s an immediate check you make: “what do his feet do when he stops to throw”. The mobile quarterback stereotype is the guy who foresakes planting his feet and form for moments where he makes a team choose what they’re going to defend. Bryce, to his credit, looks like he tries to gather his feet when he can, particularly when he looks deep. He does the shuffle/hop step and pretty much always either gets a plant foot down or has learned the type of cruise missile release where he can overcorrect for a lack of plant and arc a ball. I think the fact that he’s a better agility runner than pure speed helps a bit—guys like RG3 did a lot but ultimately wanted to run in a line and make minor cuts. Bryce looks for space laterally, and he’s got the ankle and knee work to somehow keep it all going. That works if you have the arm to push a ball on limited motion and it’s even better if you can get your feet down and into a ball on a dime, which he has shown an ability to do.

So let’s talk about his ball placement. When you watch him with Williams and Metchie, it looks like he’s borderline psychic inside the numbers and just feels where they’ll end a route from before the snap. When you watch him with anyone else, you realize immediately that he plays in an offense that is predicated on a level of execution that doesn’t work with most college receivers. If you watch guys like Brooks, they will be two steps slow of the timing route on an in or round a flag route in such a way that a corner catches up. Bryce is good enough that this usually just means it becomes a 70/30 ball, but a lot of his bad or multi pick games look like situations where a receiver is out of sync and lets a corner surprise them. With better receivers, he objectively throws these guys open—we’ve already seen it on tape. You do question if he necessarily needs receivers of that caliber to maximize his ability which hints at some of my concerns. It also doesn’t help that they don’t really run the ball well anymore so no one respects their play action anymore.

So what bugs me? Bryce has exactly one rap to beat—how’s the arm strength? I have very good confidence in his air; he’s not Mahomes but he can objectively lead guys or get a ball up when he needs to which is the difference between being Kyler or modern Russ. What worries me is his ability to rip the ball. When you watch his deep balls, he loves to lead guys on a carry but doesn’t always throw the ball hard, whether to an open guy or just hitting a vertical window. I’m of the mind that I think he has the arm to do it but has picked up some bad habits from borderline needing to run the scramble drill this year to keep that offense in the game. If you scramble, you can open a window and chuck it downfield. A lot of guys use that to get away with soft, arcing throws. The best NFL QBs at this point are able to create 80% of that receiving space but make a faster throw where a guy can get RAC as opposed to catching a ball and getting thrown down. When you throw to Jameson Williams, this doesn’t hurt. When it’s jacorey brooks, it does. He has to learn when to call the scramble early and maximize his throwing windows.

Additionally, we do have to have the small quarterback dialog. First off, he’s probably 5’10 if I had to guess. Can’t be more than 190, maybe 180. At that size, I don’t want him taking hits, especially with his frame being more slight than most slot receivers. I don’t see evidence of the sight line issues that Russ has. When his body breaks down though, what happen? His arm, when maxed out, torques pretty violently like Mayfield. Is that sustainable for him at 30? Is it reasonable to think he does much more than improve his velocity with footwork? Probably not, considering there’s just only so much mass he can throw at the ball when he’s maximizing his own acceleration in his arm. I’m not sure this is enough to say no to him, but it’s a knock that is unique to him in this class, and it will impact his fit with some teams.

People will compare him to Kyler. I flatly think Kyler was a better prospect. More consistent velocity, similar ball placement, similar running ability, less slight of frame. I do think he can give you a similar offense without much additional work, at least in the short term. To me, Bryce looks like what we got out of Watson in the passing game, right down to the bizarre picks, but his ball arc and movement look more like something between Kyler and Ryan Tannehill. He’s another guaranteed first rounder to be, but the longer this goes on the more I feel like he should be QB2.

Will Levis - Kentucky

Remember when Jamarcus Russell was a huge prospect because he had Josh Allen’s arm before Josh Allen? He basically never showed anything more than gunslinging to extremely talented receivers in open windows, but we all got so enamored with the tools that we didn’t look at his actual tendencies. He basically soured an entire generation on “tools” guys because why wouldn’t you have your poo poo together before you get to the league. Reader, I am very worried that Will Levis is going to be that player for “mechanics” guys.

Let’s talk for a minute about “ideal” mechanics and where that’s evolved. We’ve essentially grown in the last 40 years from there being “1 perfect mechanic” to “can you repeat it consistently, and how accurate/on time is it?”. We have never had this many bizarre or unorthodox style throwing motions since the days of Joe Namath and people not caring about throwing motions because throwing means you’re losing the game. The flip side is, this has essentially ruined our brains into questioning what the “best” set really would be if so many things make it work for so many guys.

Enter Will Levis. His wrist and arm look like he’s been in the league for 10 years while in the throwing motion. No hitch. No exaggerated elbow pull. Just ball at ear level, pull around, exit angle determines the arc. Need touch? He can soften it up with his shoulder or his wrist. Need a short curl? He will release the ball in front. When he is kept clean in the pocket so he doesn’t have to think about his feet and actually steps perfectly, he has shown the most speeds and angles of anyone not named CJ Stroud in this category. He has a Rodgers/Fields caliber arm, both in velocity and ability to take something off. Zero concerns about if he can theoretically hit NFL throws.

But the game isn’t played in a clean pocket, especially when you are going to get drafted to a team that is drafting high. His tendencies under felt pressure are to essentially bail right, throw a wide check down, or lock in on a read? Sound familiar? Yes, in many ways he behaves like CJ Stroud on paper but without the rationale present of “my guys will beat you downfield”. In fact, they both even get the deer in headlights “completely missed a protection call” look, but despite having a faster release, Levis will either get sacked or fall backwards into an even worse sack. He does not throw the ball away right now, largely because he still thinks of himself as a running quarterback. This extends to somewhat mailing in his play action work because he’s always thinking he can move on and scramble from the read with the space generated by the fake handoff.

Which brings me to his biggest issue, ball placement. As I look at his tape, it seems like he has decent feel for where his receivers are. Despite that, he throws high A LOT. Watch him against Florida or Tennessee and you’ll see a guy who is hitting open receivers but making them jump and lose momentum over the middle because he keeps throwing off his back foot or falling off the ball. People will call this an overthrow, but it’s really just him over striding and failing to feel how far back he’s going to get his foot back around. Same thing when he runs wide, never gets his foot around/in front, falls off the ball, misses high. It’s uncanny that his shoulders, arm, and wrist always look so consistent and good yet get let down by his feet this much.

So let’s talk then about the offense and the way he handles things. Prior to this year, they had Liam Coen—McVay disciple—running the cluster/bunch set passing game. For those unfamiliar, you create miserable pre-snap alignments and run things like wheels, mesh, shallow cross, anything that gets you running towards other receivers on your way to space. When you watch Levis at his best, it’s single coverage on our breaking or fading routes putting a ball on a line or over a receivers shoulder where he can run to grass. At his worst, he’s hanging balls in the post or seam and giving safeties a chance to erase him for giving a receiver a chance to catch a high ball. The biggest problem with his game right now is that it’s incoherent. You don’t want to make him a pure sideline/cluster guy because a high ball can be picked easily in the league from there, and his accuracy leaves when he moves. He’s too inconsistent with his feet and decisions downfield to be a vertical guy given how often he misses the existence of safety help and softens up too much. Right now, he just has an inability to be consistent. Granted, his offensive line was bad this year, but you should theoretically be able to run a brutal quick game with him and they still didn’t because of his inconsistency with his feet.

Additionally, his pre-snap reads are weird. The offense couldn’t block this year, but he’s missing extremely obvious pressure sets and them looking for illogical receivers on throwbacks or other hard throws trying to out-think a blitz. Doesn’t even really do the “throw where the pressure was” consistently, nor does he seem to acknowledge obvious alleys from
the coverage shell in favor of just picking a matchup and staring. I legitimately think someone can kick his rear end with some weird zone calls and blitz traps right now with everything he’s out on tape.

So who is he? To start, a great answer to how Zach Wilson would’ve been treated without an OL made of 30 year olds in college with bad protection calls and absurd overconfidence in his arm. His ability to move yet sudden loss of accuracy with his feet looks a lot like Tannehill did coming out. Somewhere between those two is what we’re looking at. He’s probably going to get picked by a team on the McVay tree that’s comfortable with his grasp of their offense, but I would really really like to see him in something like Daboll or the Cardinals offense with an opportunity to create natural space off of matchups and try to enforce the other team to play man coverage so you can maximize the odds his footwork and inconsistent reads don’t hurt you in the short term. If you can fix his feet, which is at least easier than the upper body, he could easily turn out to be a top 10-15 QB in the league—I’m just not sure about a guy who is inconsistent enough that he can’t make an offense more threatening than this. QB3, maybe 2 if you’re utterly terrified of protecting Bryce.


Anthony Richardson - Florida

Man someone get Josh Allen an edible arrangement for all the money he’s getting tools-y quarterbacks who are dynamic as players but not as throwers when they’re prospects.

Right off the bat, let’s discuss a few things. 1. He is not Josh Allen. Allen had bad receivers, no talent around him, and no history in the QB development pipeline that everyone who comes out of major high schools and colleges out there. 2. He is not Cam Newton. Despite being a similar freakish athlete with raw tools, Cam demonstrated touch, accuracy, and feel for throwing lanes that Richardson has essentially never demonstrated to this point. 3. He is not Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes had 800 different speeds and angles in his arm and needed time to re-learn some footwork and learn an offense that allows him to maximize his own variability.

So, now that the mouthbreathers have been satisfied, why is this guy being talked about as a first rounder? For one, borderline unlimited arm talent. He hits 50 yard balls on a line that essentially Stroud and Levis have shown but needed considerable more effort and footwork to his. He’s probably a 4.5/4.6 runner who can punish soft man coverage and push things up field. He has a feel in space and in the pocket for guys coming up to him and when he needs to extend a play.

So what gives? The man has exactly one speed, and it is FASTBALL. Goal line fade? Hit the receiver in the eye on an upward trajectory. Shallow cross? Better get thrown so hard it breaks a finger while getting tipped to a linebacker. Curl? Throw the ball so hard that it gets to the stands if the receiver mistimes a jump. He has no, and I mean no, ability to consistently take something off or even soften up beyond some type of deliberate shove work. I don’t know how this happens when he’s played quarterback since 2016, but just no one has gotten him to figure out how to change speeds.

So let’s talk about his mechanics and what’s behind this. He winds up, more of a pull straight back than down or overly torquing his shoulders. It shows up on a number of throws particularly deep and on play action, for apparently no reason. My hypothesis right now is that it’s a timing thing—he’s waiting for the guy to open and not consciously trying to put more on it so much as maximize his odds of hitting a spot. Honestly, I don’t worry too much because the ball gets there at an appropriate time regardless. His footwork is surprisingly decent for a guy who moves like he does as well. He steps in to most throws and only consistently shows an error in dropping his back knee too low which flattens balls out at times. This could actually get worse in the nfl when he fees pressure more consistent and can’t run away as simply, but we’re projecting here a bit. Regardless, off-platform throws are not a problem here in him looking significantly worse than throwing within structure from a mechanical standpoint which is nice.

What scares me beyond his touch is his reading and ball placement. First off, he doesn’t really ever read coverages well. Part of that is the offense relying on RPO/Power read looks that give him immediate pick and roll type reads, but bringing out coverage rotations and odd man principles is enough to frustrate him right now into either forcing a ball or just tucking. Coming from Mullen, I’m a bit shocked by that given that Mullen’s guys usually at least know what they see, even if they can’t do anything about it. More or less confirms why he was in Dan’s dog house despite being better than Emory Jones. Napier clearly didn’t believe in his reads or the guys around him either given how hard they leaned on using the option to create any other offensive stress on the field. Beyond all that, he just always puts the ball on a straight line, regardless of the route. That works with slants and hard curls, but this turns you into a predictable thrower for an NFL defense. If I tell my guy to always bail and be ready for the hard throw at the guy’s head, I can set traps for you even in man. You HAVE to be able to soften up just to punish corners who try to cheat for fast ball placements.

I’m also not 100% sure he does anything pre-snap beyond pointing at the read target and saying hike. His current offense isn’t asking him to do protections, and he did it poorly enough to make Mullen pick a subpar option. He could have a natural feel for it given his spatial awareness in the pocket, but it’s just another thing to add to the list of items he needs to work on.

So, let’s discuss his future. If he fixes everything and developed even a top 15 mental game, Richardson could be a pro bowler on the tools he has. He is maybe 10% less in the raw arm strength than Mahomes/Allen/Herbert, but he is a better runner right now than any of them. The question is, do you have a fanbase that can handle the growing pains? Do you have a coach who will give him 2 years to show any growth? Is the light every actually going to come on for a guy who has played the position for 8 years, had quarterback coaching this whole time, and isn’t coming at this from a lack of knowledge? I don’t know. I think he reminds me a lot of Allen or Herbert where the misses on tape are so bad I just can’t get past them, but his immediate running ability probably buys him more initial time than he would otherwise have in a league that tolerates growth for guys with his ceiling. I struggle a lot to think of an adequate comparison even with those two. He’s a worse passer right now than either, and the adage of guys rarely improving their completion percentage in the NFL comes to mind. On the other hand, he literally only has one speed and should have so many more options than this with just some really obvious drills and work. The sky is the limit here, but he’s in a position where he could be called a legitimate Josh Allen prospect or just a Terelle Pryor where he never puts the arm to work. Don’t think of this as a test of what prospect he best resembles—think of it as a test of character for the NFL team that wants to try to make this work. If you get him in the 2nd, roll the dice. If it’s a 1st but you’re replacing a starter in two years, maybe. Otherwise? There’s a lot of red flags here that say to me he’s not going to have the sudden growth Allen or Herbert did because it’s not like he was undiscovered or misused in college. QB4 as is with potential to make assholes of us all


Quick hits on the guys without first round potential to come.

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”

Ornery and Hornery posted:

So… regarding Richardson… you’re telling me there’s a chance :clint:

Sure, just like there’s a chance he’s Cardale Jones, Kaep, or Allen. He’s by far got the most obvious failure State to me but his upside is quite literally top 5 QB if he fixes every single thing. I’m not inclined to believe the league as a whole suddenly knows what to do with projects like him, but man if you could get him figured. He’s a better version of what Willis was last year as a prospect.

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”

mcmagic posted:

QB size discourse is so different now. It doesn't seem to matter at all anymore....

Legitimately, I think the biggest size concern I have now with someone like Young is a mixture of “man what happens if his arm isn’t 100% and he has to drive the ball with his legs at 30” and “oh god that hit looked bad”. None of that really hinges on his height, but man if I’m not wigged out about a 180 lb quarterback at times regardless of how he’s actually playing.

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”

mcmagic posted:

That is more true for QBs who run the ball on designed plays. I still think smaller QBs even like Wilson and Mayfield have trouble seeing over the line and get more passes knocked down that your league avg QB.

Staring at a sideline here is the actual cause. No one is calling Burrow small, but he gets quite a few balls thrown at the sticks get batted at the line. Short guys do seem to have a tendency to be sideline throwers for the obvious reason you mentioned of it being a cleaner line, but it’s easy to cheat because everyone in the world knows you can leave the middle open against like Baker or Wilson since it shows up as a tendency. I do think part of it is coaching too considering 4 inches really shouldn’t be the difference between calling Mesh or not. Like, Kliff and Kyler have figured this out a bit guys, why not you.

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”

Relentlessboredomm posted:

it blows my mind that anyone is genuinely considering richardson as anything other than a TE conversion or the new Taysom Hill. He's had multiple good offensive coaches, years to learn the basics and he's the worst throwing QB in the SEC somehow. if he was from some no name school, never had much coaching and only played a year then maybe take a flier in the 2nd but the dude's had a lot of time and chances to improve and he's shown jack poo poo. it would be the most miraculous development job of all time to turn him into a solid NFL qb

This is basically my fear. Part of why I think Allen got so much better is because he just didn’t have the coaching and development guys usually get these days before the league. No elite 11 or private QB coach, no NCAA program that got him big viability with big reps, no high school or JuCo exposure that blew him up or gave meaningful competition. The first time someone actually worked on mechanics or more complicated reads in a meaningful way that was on par with his tools was the league. He was untapped in the sense that he literally hadn’t been taught this poo poo. Mahomes just had to be retaught pocket work that TTU beat out of him to fix his feet a bit while also building an offense that could allow him to maximize the throes no one else can make. Herbert had to be put in an offense that could just allow him to go off feel and vision and not predetermined reads that a receiver could run badly with no hot routes.

Richardson played for a known QB guy, comes from the prep pipeline, and still just didn’t even try to fix things this year. His arm talent and movement is so absurd that you almost feel obligated to try. He couldn’t run Mullen’s offense from structure. He couldn’t pass for touchdowns consistently. There’s so many red flags, but the raw ability is so enticing that he’s going in the first 2 rounds for sure, and I at least can’t say that’s explicitly wrong with how the teams value things now (though I sure like the other 3 guys all more)

Yeah if nothing works he’s a conversion project like Pryor, but holy poo poo if you get the impression from interviews and your coaches you can develop him I get it. I don’t want to take the ride myself, but I understand people trying to follow the trend.

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”

Doltos posted:

Very good post. You're 100% right about Levis I don't know why he can't recognize a blitz. I think Young's arm strength is fine and his feel for the game is pretty amazing.

My pet theory right now is that relying on short/narrow sets is making those keys harder to teach in favor of making coverage declaration more obvious, but it really is funny when the guy who we’ll hear endlessly was in a pro system cannot do the things the pro system is supposed to make you good at.


I really can’t wait for Bryce’s pro day. I usually don’t give a poo poo about programmed, un-rushed throws, but I want to see him rip some balls to confirm what his 2021 tape had. Part of the concern was undoubtedly his shoulder not being 100% this year too but like, even if he tops out at Goff/Mayfield (which I think he probably has more than) that should be plenty of arm for him with as smooth as he reads and moves.

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”

Alaois posted:

Anthony Richardson cant throw a football with any semblence of touch, technique or accuracy, but don't worry because he also refuses to run with the ball!

Hey now. He throws the hell out of that bullet pass that usually gets dropped in Madden!

The running hesitancy doesn’t bug me all that much. Mullen’s rage at going out of structure probably affected his willingness, and then his RPO processing under Napier could be spoofed by a decent DC call once you knew what he was reading which made him look worse at times. He still breaks quite a few runs, but it’s really really not shocking to me that a guy who shits his pants about a rotation to cover 3 or cover 2 invert also has extremely bad feel in the RPO game at times.

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”
Let’s talk about some guys who are definitely not going 1st round.

Hendon Hooker - Tennessee

I generally get annoyed at the “system QB” rap because it doesn’t frequently reflect reality or what guys show they can do in that system. Think how many Leach guys showed enough to be journeymen or what Mahomes did in the raid—there’s never been more parity between college offenses and the NFL than right now.

That said, we need to discuss the Briles system. Alex Golesh looked at the receivers he and Heupel had and realized pretty much immediately that Veer and Shoot with 4 verts, Y cross, and All Curls was going to work for most of their games—just gotta find a QB.

And they did! His name was Joe Milton, and his initial starting period was one of the funniest games I’ve ever watched. Dude was missing vertical balls by 20 yards and doing his best Grossman impression in the process. Then they got serious and realized they needed a guy who could actually complete passes. Enter Hendon Hooker. A very athletic quarterback who is quite literally the same age as Lamar Jackson.

What Hooker lacked in raw air yards (he still has NFL caliber air and above average velocity when he steps in) compared to Milton, he made up for in showing an ability to occasionally soften up a deep ball for a receiver going over the top. He was too big and fast to just mindlessly blitz and keep off of verts. So why isn’t he likely to work out?

Because his ball placement is actually pretty bad. Watch him against any team with similar talent and he’s not throwing dudes open, he’s waiting for them to “win” a route and throwing to a spot. Means Georgia could pick him off on just looking at tape for his distances and waiting. His balls on a curl or post frequently sail high for no discernible reason beyond “read higher than the receiver turned” or “released high”. It’s a set of consistent errors, but a helpful way to think of it is as a quarterback throwing to receivers in a zone passing game rather than throwing explicitly to guys at all times. There’s basically no situation where he has more than 2 reads from guys who are lined up past the numbers, so it just doesn’t really train him to do much other than throw to spots. It’s a Mickey Mouse offense in a world where we accommodate that more than we used to.

Mechanically he’s got very very good feet and sets well in or out of pocket, which makes his ability to miss high troubling. I think he just doesn’t feel the ball well in his hand or is bringing the ball up too much at launch because it’s the only consistent explanation for his misses. He’s also not really changing his arm angles much because the offense doesn’t really call for that, so you’re probably not seeing the off-platform work you may expect from him.

He’s apparently a really nice guy, but getting me to bet on a 25 year old with his limitations is a lot. Could see him having a Josh Dobbs type arc where he becomes an okay backup with time, but he’s actually a pretty healthy answer to what I would’ve expected from Stidtham if he had played at Baylor the whole way where he’s not going to run as easily or carelessly for the hits he’s going to take. 4th rounder at best to me at least, particularly with the injury.

Jaren Hall - BYU

Look another 25 year old rookie! Hall’s interesting because his game really reads like
Great Value Bryce Young.

First thing that pops up is he gets very explosive in the draw or zone read game—lots of instances where they could pull a designed run and do very well, especially since a zone block is an immediate tell on the BYU offense that the QB is running right now. They also definitely opened up some angles compared to
Wilson in the offense where the rollout game got some burn as a way to extend play action and open some TE/SE routes in the flag game where a bigger receiver can get position downfield. He reads downfield well, but I don’t love the way he doesn’t always work back if theres 3+ DBs deep—recognizing short and intermediate space before hitting a check down or scrambling would go a long way to giving him vertical space. He got pressured more consistently than Wilson but dealt with it through the scramble game (designed or not) and pretty decent pocket movement. I don’t know how much of the pressure was his line versus bad protection calls, but he’s objectively shown more in that area than like Levi’s at least.

So what do I hate? His arm is bizarre. He’s basically never been all the way healthy, but he flutters balls downfield or over the middle that he shouldn’t from what I see of him throwing outs or comebacks. My gut says this is a footwork thing, since giving him more than 5-7 steps on a play seems to kick him into a gear where he doesn’t try to set his feet and will just do it off of arm—lots of weird fadeaway there. He has really good arm adjustments, but he doesn’t have the raw arm to get away with some of these throws at the next level without getting his feet under him. It looks better when he stays in the pocket, but even then he doesn’t always follow through if he senses pressure. Sort of a classic mobile QB stereotype here but just get him focused on getting his front foot down or falling backwards and I think he can be good. Concern here is if he doesn’t clean some of those up, he could just be a more athletic Andy Dalton as a prospect with short velocity but not downfield which is fine but difficult to win with in a league that’s embraced the vertical stretch.

I like him as a bit of a riff on Tyrod as a prospect. Decent physical tools that should make him reasonably competent run out of a highly professionalized offense but doesn’t always hit close windows as tightly as he should and doesn’t always give himself the best chance at letting him arm work. I’m actually fine with him on Day 2 and think he’s a better prospect than Hendon right now at least just given what he’s shown in his current offense.

Cam Ward - Wazzu

Air raid guy! To start, worst feet on an air raid guy in a while—worse than college Mahomes. He’s mobile and can do half roll/full roll poo poo to create stress and keep plays going when playing against more talented teams, but the man has clearly never been punished for freelancing.

He doesn’t really throw from his legs—lots of arm and wrist for a guy without the utterly elite arm talent you more or less need to excuse a guy for this. Lots of submarine looping and sidearming or “beer pong” releases where there’s no need, so I would like to see him at a minimum reduce the windup if he’s going to be a guy who generates touch and angle from the wrist this much. When he does step in and release straight away, he has some good velocity that can make the sideline game work in the NFL. When he doesn’t, he’s going to look like early Cousins hanging balls. I think he’s around league average velocity and air when everything works, but that’s a minority of his throws right now and at times hard to determine given the level of DBs he typically faced.

I think part of this mechanical inconsistency is that I cannot find much tape where his OL looks competent against pressure, and he was running like a Wing T within the last 4 years. To compensate, his last two years of tape had a good quick game with sticks and screens that created some incentive for rushers to slow down and prevent him from overstepping. That said, it’s not as much anticipation as I typically expect from this type of offense in favor of just extending plays or running.

If you’re willing to take a project QB, I think I like him about as much as Hall given how much you could immediately work on his mechanics and improve them, but he’s probably going to be behind Hall if he comes out. Compare him to a midpoint between Malik Willis and Will Grier. Kinda hope he waits another year.

Quick Hits

Spencer Rattler - Went full gunslinger. Best raw arm in the class if he comes out. Makes shockingly bad decisions with inferior receivers and gives the ball up as a result. When Lincoln gives up on you, I notice.

Tyler Van Dyke - This year’s “Mitch leidner” award for worst preseason 1st rounder on a bad sample size from a McShay intern. Sucks. Won’t get drafted even though he’s an okay deep ball guy. Stay in school.

Tanner McKee - Older Davis Mills. All these Stanford guys are the same pocket QB with big arms and mediocre accuracy. Him running the WF slow mesh was hilarious.

Malik Cunningham - Erratic, bad arm, run first guy with okay feel. No feet on his big throws. No anticipation which will drive an nfl guy nuts.

Bo Nix - Debating watching his full tape this year because he’s the closest to moving into non-quick hit tier. His auburn tape is insanely bad and shows a guy with bad pocket feel running backwards in an offense that doesn’t fit him as a vertical thrower. Actually think he has an NFL arm on speed and air, but he just runs around mindlessly for no reason. Dillingham got some good play out of him this year on sideline work and letting him read LBs or safety breaks, minus Georgia where he had 2-3 insanely bad reads on a safety drop. Athletic enough to extend plays. I don’t hate him like I thought?

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”

a neat cape posted:

Jake Haener erasure

I like the 2-3 quarters of Fresno I’ve watched, but his peak is Andy Dalton and his floor is like Ken Dorsey. Hope he gets some checks at the next level because holy poo poo his injury report looks bad.

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”

KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:

I know gently caress all about quarterback play but it seemed like Bo did a better job of productively running around, both on designed roll out poo poo, and extending plays with his legs.

I haven’t watched him in a charting/scouting sense much from this past season, but I think you’re more or less correct. I worry about him in a pocket when coverage is good still, but there’s no reason in my mind he couldn’t do the current Perkins/Baker/Garropollo type thing if it’s for real. Gonna add him to my queue after some other positions this year.

Ornery and Hornery posted:

TheGreyGhost, where would you rank Stroud’s arm strength compared to people like Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Watson, etc?

Weird year for arm strength—no real baby arms in the class. If I’m estimating in order

Peak velocity (when everything is perfect)
Richardson = Herbert/Lock (seriously)
Levis = Lawrence
Stroud = Watson
Young = Fields

Peak air
Levis = Lawrence
Richardson = Lock
Stroud = Rivers
Young = Kyler

To the editorialize a bit:

- These are ideal conditions. Richardson habitually throws as hard as possible. Levis has a lot of throws on tape that look beneath this. Stroud’s ball flight is odd because it’s effective but looks flatter than it is even if he’s showing NFL arm talent. Young has a very live arm that you question his limits at the very edge but don’t worry about much within like 40 yards.

- Richardson has a stupid amount of natural talent and looks like he could do essentially anything but is so limited by his reads and his touch that it’s hard to say just what his air throws can be. He rips like Herbert did out of Oregon right down to the missed balls, but it’s hard to estimate a throw he doesn’t do beyond throwing it hard.

- Levis has an arm like Lawrence in every sense when his feet are clean. Trevor did a better job of using his feet and balance even if he has like 10% more windup than Levis does for the same results. Levis is almost never clean. Edit: To be clear, the raw arm is good and Lawrence like, I just don’t love the inconsistency with his speeds right now. He can throw hard and high or soft and wide if he just arms it which shows ability but not always understanding of how his speeds work.

- Stroud’s mechanics are so weird because he throws hard like Watson short and changes release and ball path quite a bit for deeper balls that still get there faster than I would expect.

- Please keep Bryce clean because his arm is special even if he doesn’t always finish throws. Follow through is more important the smaller you are, and I don’t want to hear people accusing him of a weak arm when the issue is just that he flutters balls deep off a scramble drill with unset feet

TheGreyGhost fucked around with this message at 19:16 on Dec 15, 2022

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”

Doltos posted:

Levis' throwing motion is absurdly consistent. He whips the ball at the top of the arc with his wrist and it produces somewhat decent accuracy for the strength behind it. I don't think he has to set his feet for it but after Mahomes I don't know how much footwork matters with that type of throwing.

Agreed that his upper body motion is consistent, I just don’t see a guy who is NFL accurate when he’s without his feet right now—can’t throw that many balls high or wide enough to be out of stride next level or you become Baker, look at the Florida tape if you’re curious what I mean . Maybe his receivers can make up for it a bit next level, but Mahomes was hitting those off platforms a looot closer than this as a prospect where the question was more if an offense would accommodate it. I do wonder if he’s like Bryce as well where the injuries might be making their margins look worse than they ordinarily would be. I’m generally harder on guys like Levis who don’t set the world on fire despite the tools which is my own bias.

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”

kiimo posted:

Which of the QBs are going to be able to handle this type of poo poo though


https://www.instagram.com/reel/Cl9s4hlpXB_/?igshid=NTdlMDg3MTY%3D

Hooker is max comedy here because he’s both insanely church-y and comes from an offensive system that would drive Gruden insane that he isn’t doing some type of 5 read rolling check that takes 10 seconds to call for a 3 yard gain. Like, the idea of throwing to spots and not doing 4 checks and reads as a 25 year old QB would break his mind.

Least funny is Stroud who would probably correct the play call for an huge gain, get yelled at, and then go listen to Joy Division alone in his room after Gruden calls him a loser.

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”

kiimo posted:

Stroud is my new favorite QB now even though if you just made this up.

I imagine him having on the back of his helmet LOVE WILL TEAR US APART

I don’t know how to put it other than there is a large contingent of the buckeye fan base who stares at him demeanor and sees a sad, goth kid, and I cannot really disagree with how he is man. Like, it’s stupid poo poo to project because you get people going like “JUSTIN HERBERT INTROVERT” but I don’t think I’ve ever seen a guy as talented as he is who looks less thrilled on a down to down basis.

Ornery and Hornery posted:

Stroud was my favorite qb but now that TheGreyGhost said he had a baby arm strength like Watson, STROUD no longer favorite qb!

Watson famously threw the least mph ball in that draft class where they measured mph ball speed for some reason. Unacceptable.

I would legitimately say Deshaun has about a league average/median arm at this point—looked worse at Clemson because the offense hinges on jump balls to big guys and his mechanics held him back a bit. He tightened his mechanics up a bit in the pros which helped on some hard breaks like curls or zone beaters. Much better weight transfer and not leaking power on a windup. Not usually a huge fan of Quincy Avery, but he legitimately did do some decent work on Deshaun’s loading phase.


Ornery and Hornery posted:

How can a ball go so slow, yet that same ball made so many deep throw completions???

Find out on this episode of ancient aliens

I like that McDaniel realized that if he got Waddle and Hill he could just tell Tua to throw early and know those guys would blow a window open that his soft, lovely deep ball was less likely to turn into a pick. Truly the modern answer to “run the west coast offense” for when you get a guy who looks like poo poo at 30 yards.

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”

Amy Pole Her posted:

How dare you you son of a bitch

One of my favorite trends is how the dolphins get generational talents (Jason Taylor; Tyreek) but cling to the weird physically underwhelming mascot on the team (Zach Thomas; Tua). In fairness I think this is a localized thing. Fond memories of Ken Dorsey being this for those Hurricanes teams.

(All of Boston does this as well)

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”

BlindSite posted:

Stand within ten yard of tua and say that and not online and watch what happens fucker.

Based on his interview history, I apparently would just need to take off my belt and accuse him of trying to quit football to win this fight. (I seriously hope his scary stage dad has gone the hell away).

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”
Ironically, I’ve gone back and re-read some of my prior year write ups for a bit of self-scouting. One question, what do we want to draw the line on for “top” on QBs? Anyone I went longform (200+ ish) on?

I’ll probably jump on this in a summary because it actually plays a bit with a concept I had for creating a glossary on this.

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”
Here comes the single lengthiest post I have ever made here. Some early house rules

- View the objective grades along the lines of a relative scale score. 10 overall isn’t happening there. That’s averaging the following grades out of 10 (Air; Velocity; Ball Placement; Ball Timing; Mechanics; Movement Ability; Processing/Recognition), so I would call anything above like 6.5 a first-round grade there and anything above 7 as top-20 grade.
- The subjective score is essentially how I would’ve scored that prospect holistically without creating a definitive rubric. It’s how I’m going to order these guys. Anything 8 or above is first round grade.

Format for section (Subjective/Objective/Dog score) - Snake

Trevor Lawrence (9.5; 7.93; 7) - Cleanest or least objectionable prospect in 6 years. Will go as far as his footwork takes him. The Burmese Python where he is broadly adaptable to Florida and immediately became a mascot for part of Florida.

Kyler Murray (9; 7.50; 6.5) - Undersized but similarly unobjectionable to Lawrence. The Borneo Blood Python for being active mainly at night or when trying to escape.

Justin Fields (9; 7.43; 7.5) - The guy overshadowed by Lawrence but who was essentially just as capable. The Red Tailed Boa who gets overshadowed by the Burmese Python but otherwise would get the headlines for invading a habitat.

Joe Burrow (9; 7.43; 10) - The anti-tools guy who just gets the ball where it’s supposed to be. California Mountain Kingsnake where he’s incredibly dangerous to the other snakes because he can take hits and outlast them.

CJ Stroud (8.5; 7.14; 4) - Elite pocket guy in rhythm who has weird vibes at times and sometimes misses obvious threats. The Coachwhip Snake—known for constricting blood flow to improve eyesight when threatened but otherwise coasting in life.

Bryce Young (8.5; 7.29; 8) - Scrambling, lovable quarterback who everyone wants in a nice home but is frequently an escape artist—the Corn Snake.

Josh Rosen (8.5; 7.00; 2) - My biggest overrate of all time. Looked cool but died immediately in captivity, overestimated capabilities by everyone—a wild caught Ball Python.

Sam Darnold (8.5; 6.79; 5) - Excellent physical talent that was trained poorly to understand what it was doing and needed more space to operate than was received. Bad feeding response that creates problems by being too eager—Olive Python.

Baker Mayfield (8.5; 6.79; 9) - Fell apart when it turns out you can’t just grit your way through every injury or not work on your mechanics/reads and have it work out, despite having enough arm to make it possible. Hisses loudly and headbutts things—Black-headed python.

Lamar Jackson (8.5; 7.14; 9.5) - Elite physical talent actually made us underestimate just how polished he was in the passing game. Tries to outrun everything, fast, quite active, known for making GBS threads themselves when finally grabbed—The Southern Black Racer

Tua Tagavailoa (8.5; 6.79; 6) - Physically limited but showed promise in knowing what he needed to do. A Bolivian anaconda—noted for having a journal article about its corpse being played with by dolphins (see Wikipedia).

Dwayne Haskins (8.5; 6.79; 6) - Looks cool but slow and easily contained, treated like a very safe prospect because it’s a name brand. Rosy Boa Constrictor

Deshaun Watson (8; 6.93; 7.5) - Turned out to be more physically capable than expected with decent processing power. Invasive species that hurts an environment yet also doesn’t have a flashy name, African Rock Python

Trey Lance (8; 6.93; 7) - Not from the area everyone thinks of but still very capable and aggressive if you mess with it. The Caspian Whipsnake

Patrick Mahomes (8; 7.07; 9) - Ability, size, and temperament to beat anything. Unknown exactly how big he can get but already at the apex. Green Anaconda.

Zach Wilson (8; 6.93; 6.5) - Capable in its environment but falls apart anywhere else despite being billed as an Apex Predator—Eastern Indigo Snake

Will Levis (8; 7.0; 7) - Might die to mistaken identity in Appalachia, Eastern Milksnake

Mac Jones (7.5; 6.5; 3) - Pretends to be a rattlesnake by shaking an empty tail, is not a rattlesnake. Bullsnake.

Desmond Ridder (7.5; 6.79; 5) - Appeared dead in big moments but shows competence and exertion against lesser competition. Eastern Hognose

Justin Herbert (7.5; 6.57; 2) - Physically massive talent that is smart and adapts over time but gets frequently mislabeled as just another python because of size and initial overeagerness—the Reticulated Python.

Anthony Richardson (7.5; 6.57; 6.5) - Absolute hulk with exactly one speed and no nuance. King Snake

Josh Allen (7.5; 6.29; 5) - Get ignored in favor of its bigger relative but just as terrifying and maybe more unpredictable. Yellow Anaconda.

Matt Corral (7.5; 6.43; 8) - Looks threatening on rep but could get stepped on by anyone competent enough to call his bluff. Scarlet Kingsnake.

Kenny Pickett (7.5; 6.36; 7.5) - Suddenly realized to be big and dangerous after getting lumped in with a broader group of anonymous dudes for years. The Australian Scrub Python

Daniel Jones (7.5; 6.29; 3.5) - Useful in a vacuum but not as effective as bigger prospects, as easy to move on from as smaller ones, or as effective as recent exotic prospects. Known for having a musk when threatened that simulates poison. Eastern rat snake.

Malik Willis (7.5; 6; 5) - Unique looking prospect who we know nothing about because of recent discovery and sample size in anything public or relevant being nothing. Could be cool or a complete hoax. Iridescent Shieldtail.

Mitchell Trubisky (7.5; 6.07; 3) - Had every tool needed but was far far too young to ever have a chance of being actually dangerous as opposed to the appearance of dangerous. Juvenile Black Rat Snake.

Brad Kaaya (7.5; 6.21; 2) - Survived on the volume of people around him and got overrated by everyone for stuff that anyone could’ve done. Physically sought. Eastern Green water snake.

Deshone Kizer (7.5; 6.15; 4.5) - Curious, nimble prospect that sees things but isn’t capable of finishing any type of squeeze out in favor of just kind of hanging around. Eastern Racer.

Jaren Hall (7.0; 6.36; 6.5) - Has to hide from predators frequently gets owned by anything that creates problems in its habitat. Plays bigger than it is. Smooth Green Snake

Kellen Mond (7.0; 6.36; 5) - Manages a ground game well to hide from the entirety of its habitat burning down around it. Ends up chilling in the same place as some gophers for a while. Louisiana Pinesnake.

Jordan Love (7.0; 6.00; 5) - Waits around in holes for the environment to get less bad despite being well equipped for a hardened high desert, essentially just becomes a hiding subsistence farmer. Sonoran Gopher Snake.

Drew Lock (7; 6.07; 5) - Large and shiny. Allowed to keep going because of some nebulous idea that it could be useful against some specific predator. Texas Indigo Snake

Jalen Hurts (7; 6.07; 8) - Stout, constant debate about if it’s capable of being actually dangerous or not despite some evidence it has been. Western Hognose

Davis Mills (7; 6.07; 1) - Looks cool but basically is known for nothing other than being from a spot in California. The California Red-Sided Garter Snake.

Hendon Hooker (7; 5.93; 7) - Debate over how old he is being relevant when the actual issue is just that he’s not all the actual issue here is that he’s common and not that interesting. Great Basin Gophersnake

Mason Rudolph (7; 5.43; 3) - Easily angered and lashes out. Assumed to come from a warmer, more interesting place than he does. Cape Gopher Snake

Cam Ward (6.5; 6.0; 7.5) - Raw, runs into trouble frequently and spent a lot of time in a habitat that does not translate to much of anything. Plain-bellied Watersnake.

Bailey Zappe (6.5; 5.93; 5.5) - No real predators where it’s from, ended up getting some with where it ended up. Undersized. Southern Bahamas Boa

Kyle Trask (6.5; 6; 5) - Does basically one unique thing well in one aquatic environment. Turns to poo poo if even the water temperature is off. Queen Snake

Carson Strong (6.5; 5.14; 2) - Does the easy thing of feasting on the defenseless. From the mountains. Oddly blunt. Gets hurt trying to do this constantly. Southern Rubber Boa

Sam Howell (6.5; 6.07; 6) - insanely bad at killing things to the point where evolution has given two options to do and neither really works beyond small prey. Needs to decide what it does. Western terrestrial garter snake.

Will Grier (6.5; 5.79; 6.5) - Fairly agreeable. Could survive in a cave. Climbs trees. Children’s Python

Chad Kelly (6.5; 5.79; 9.5) - Portrayed as a king because of one specific game and kind of looking the part. Pretender. Crowned False Boa.

Jacob Eason (6.5; 5.64; 2.5) - insanely cool looking but makes like 1-2 moves a month and otherwise a complete non factor. Emerald Tree Boa.

Luke Falk (6.5; 5.71; 6.5) - Secretive, small, eats tiny prey whole hiding. Abundant where they are. Worm Snake.

Ryan Finley (6.5; 5.43; 3) - Tiny, weak, there are a million of him. But he sees well! Ribbon Snake


Here’s my attempt at “objective” scores as prospects

Arm Strength
Two dimensions here: Air (raw distance and height) and Velocity (speed to a point)

Air
10: Mahomes, Allen, Herbert
9.5: Eason, Levis
9.0: Richardson, Lock, Love
8.5: Lawrence, Fields, Lance, Haskins
8.0: Stroud, Rosen, Darnold, Ridder, Hall, Kizer, Mills, Trubisky, Willis, Hooker, Strong
7.5: Murray, Jackson, Corral, Mond, Howell, Rudolph
7.0: Young, Burrow, Wilson, Watson, M Jones, D Jones, Hurts, Ward, Kelly
6.5: Tua, Mayfield, Pickett
6.0: Grier, Zappe
5.5: Trask
5.0: Kaaya, Falk, Finley

Velocity
10: Mahomes, Allen, Richardson
9.5: Eason, Levis, Lock, Herbert
9.0: Lawrence, Fields
8.5: Lance, Haskins, Rosen
8.0: Love, Stroud, Kizer, Trubisky, Willis, Mond, Wilson, D Jones
7.5: Darnold, Ridder, Mills, Hooker, Murray, Howel
7.0: Hall, Jackson, Corral, Rudolph, Young, M Jones, Ward, Kelly, Mayfield, Pickett, Kaaya
6.5: Strong, Watson, Tua
6.0: Burrow, Hurts, Falk
5.5: Trask
4.5 Zappe
4.0: Grier
3.5: Finley

Notes
Watson did the most to improve here in the league, excellent mechanical work to get a couple points on velocity and air both now compared to where I would put him at around an 8 on velocity and a 7.5-8 on air.
Eason and Lock both make me sad because they could be so so good if they ever learned touch and ball placement.
Burrow, Hurts, and Tua are odd because they’re so average in this area that you forget that all you need is enough arm to get a ball where it’ll work, not necessarily anywhere.

Accuracy
Two dimensions here, ball placement and timing. The distributions/grades on this are tighter and less generous because of just how rare elite accuracy really is in college because you’re just not punished for it the same way.

Placement
8.5 Burrow
8.0: Lawrence, Stroud, Murray
7.5: Young, Mayfield, Tua
7.0: Mahomes, Fields, Rosen, M Jones, Kaaya, Trask
6.5: Haskins, Lance, Trubisky, Wilson, Ridder, Jackson, Corral, Pickett, Watson, Zappe
6.0: Lock, D Jones, Darnold, Mills, Hooker, Hall, Ward, Strong, Hurts, Falk, Grier, Finley
5.5: Howell, Kelly,
5.0: Levis, Herbert, Love, Kizer, Willis, Mond, Rudolph
4.0: Allen, Richardson, Eason

Timing
8.0: Burrow
7.5: Lawrence, Young
7.0: Stroud, Murray, Mayfield, Tua, Rosen, M Jones, Trask, Haskins, Watson, Grier
6.5: Mahomes, Fields, Lance, Wilson, Jackson, Zappe, D Jones
6.0: Kaaya, Ridder, Corral, Pickett, Darnold, Hurts, Falk, Finley
5.5: Mond
5.0: Trubisky, Mills, Hall, Ward, Strong, Howell, Levis, Herbert, Kizer
4.5: Kelly, Richardson, Eason
4.0: Lock, Hooker, Love. Willis, Rudolph, Allen

Notes:
The Leach line about accuracy never improving is largely correct save a handful of guys like Allen and Mahomes who needed a mixture of help around them and fixed mechanics to demonstrate what they can do.
Burrow’s ball placement was so loving freakish man.
Another field where Rosen was straight up fools gold

Mechanics
These count both feet and arm, so don’t be surprised if these score lower than you’d expect


9.0: Wilson
8.5: Lawrence
8.0: Levis
7.5: Burrow, Murray, Rosen
7.0: Young, Stroud, Tua, Grier, Mills
6.5: Mayfield, M Jones, Watson, Zappe, Kaaya, Pickett, Mond
6.0: Trask, Fields, Jackson,D Jones, Ridder, Corral, Darnold, Falk, Finley, Howell, Herbert, Kelly, Rudolph
5.5: Haskins
5.0: Lance, Trubisky, Hall, Ward, Kizer, Richardson, Love
4.5: Strong, Willis, Allen
4.0: Mahomes, Hurts, Eason, Lock, Hooker


Notes
Least predictive metric by far. Bad mechanics that work > good mechanics that don’t.
Sometimes it doesn’t even take much of a tweak to fix things, Allen and Mahomes basically just did footwork drills! Watson learned to step in.

Movement

10: Jackson
9: Richardson
8.5: Willis, Hurts
8.0: Young, Murray, Watson
7.5: Fields, Ridder, Darnold, Lance, Hall
7.0: Alexis, Mond, Ward, Kizer, Hooker
6.5: Lawrence, Burrow, Allen
6.0: Tua, Mayfield, Corral, Love, Mahomes
5.5: Pickett, Herbert, Kelly
5.0: Wilson, Stroud, Grier, Zappe, Kaaya, D Jones, Finley, Haskins, Trubisky, Lock
4.5: M Hones
4.0: Rosen, Trask, Falk, Eason
3.5: Mills, Rudolph
2.0: Strong

Processing/Recognitiom

Similar to accuracy metrics, can see some outliers but the college offense really obscures some of this past a certain point. Far more constrained scores.

8.5: Burrow
7.5: Fields, Lawrence
7.0: Young, Murray, Watson, Tua, Mayfield, Stroud, Kaaya, Rosen, Trask
6.5: Jackson, Darnold, Pickett, Zappe, Finley, Haskins, M Jones
6.0: Ridder, Lance, Hall, Corral, Mahomes, Wilson, Grier
5.5: D Jones, Mills
5.0: Hurts, Levis, Mond, Ward, Kizer, Hooker, Allen, Love, Herbert, Kelly, Trubisky, Lock
4.5: Richardson, Howell
4.0: Willis, Eason, Strong

Notes
Guys who pop here really pop, most guys it’s a question almost of “what would someone else see here” which is hard to distinguish


My overall thoughts:

I don’t love the number scoring for a few reasons. Notably it’s hard to articulate how hard a ceiling a rating is on a guy or why exactly a mechanical rating is really bad for one player but not so much for another. I do longform for a reason but trying to pair my subjective vibes on things with a numerical score aren’t completely disconnected it appears.

Biggest overrates are Rosen, Darnold, Haskins, Mayfield. Didn’t accurately account for turnover potential or laziness in picking up a scheme on any of them.

Biggest underrated are Mahomes, Allen, Watson, and Herbert. I acknowledged Lamar’s talent but don’t think I really expected him to get embraced by a team like he has been. The first 4 working on their footwork allowed them to play up to their arm talent and processing by making them more accurate which is historically a terrible bet.

Personal pat on the back for calling for Fields over Wilson and elevating Burrow over Tua.

Arm talent and accuracy working together really are the key, everything else is secondary.

I’ve gotten better at this—biggest misses were in the first few years

Scouting is about “what does a success require” and knowing all the pitfalls beyond that. You can’t learn how good of a student a guy is from the tape, just hints at what can happen.

Encourage anyone with archives to go back and read some of the old threads. My misses are pretty funny on some guys like Rosen but can definitely see knowledge and experience build like with anything else.

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”

Borsche69 posted:

walterfootball time

if I ever got good enough at it, an AI that could write Walter Football scouting blurbs couldn’t be that hard to do, assuming you just fed it the usual racist AI data.

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”

Doltos posted:

Strouds pinpoint when he's on. So are Bryce and Levis in the intermediate game.

Yeah, I think he might throw the closest thing to Burrow when he’s putting a ball on a guy with a defender in play. When he misses, it’s high at the sideline too which at least cuts his picks. Also agree on Bryce. Levis is just odd. He looks great outside the hashes and at the numbers, but over the middle I can’t tell at times if he’s just wild with his target choices or doesn’t anticipate the breaks his receivers want to pop things open. When he hits, he really loving hits, I just don’t think he’s in the same class as Stroud or Young on that (though he could easily get there)

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”

Ornery and Hornery posted:

I want to give special props to TheGreyGhost for even doing the snake part accurately. I have reviewed and I did not find a single venomous snake in the list. :)

TGG is savage with the snake comps lol:
  • Ridder = Eastern Hognose
  • Brad Kaaya = Eastern Green Water Snake

:siren: I declare that TGG has FULFILLED THE CONTRACT :siren:

Where you want the animal charity donation to go, comrade?


p.s. I love TheGreyGhost and I don't care who knows it!!!

I’m partial to the Pasadena Humane Society out here for anyone who wants to get involved. My corgi “works” there as a socialization buddy when they have litters, and their food bank has saved a lot of needy pets who just want to stay with their people when things get bad out here.

Thinking about priorities, I’m going to set a goal of hitting Edge/DT classes next, probably going to shoot for the stretch goal on that but want to think about criteria a bit because body types differ so much there and change competencies drastically. It’s easier for the DTs than the Edges. Past that, I’ll leave it open to the group if WRs, OTs, IOL, or CBs make sense. Feel free to drop votes—I’ll order things based on interest since this is at its most fun when it follows the debate in here.

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”

Ornery and Hornery posted:

what was a snake fact that you found noteworthy?

The prevalence of snake cannibalism is absolutely horrifying.


Anyways let’s talk about backup quarterbacks taking the starter’s jobs like Brock Pur—


KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:

It’s hard for tOSU skill guys to have that dawg in em

Haskins had significantly more just off of his defense never meaning a safe lead. Fields played through like 10 different injuries. Stroud…just occasionally looks sad and annoyed out there? Like, I’m not a big “vibes” or emotions guys but there’s something deeply weird about a guy who makes the throws he does to the guys he does who just…doesn’t get all that fired up and talks like a Dabo amount about Jesus in every single interview. He might just be the latest in a series of QB prospects who have been out there so long they’ve done the Russell thing and filed their personalities down but I’m very very interested in how he finishes Bowl season.


BlindSite posted:

I liked your post Grey Ghost, but it is Brock Purdy erasure and even after watching him play two games I can decide if he's an anti tools guy who's just loving good or if it's all going to come crashing the gently caress down.

I like Purdy as a backup or substitute for Jimmy, but “anti-tools” isn’t correct more just “anti-arm talent” because he doesn’t have a real scary deep ball or 20 yard rip.. He is benefiting quite a bit right now from the lack of tape meaning he can challenge the sidelines right now without guys teeing off when he hangs a ball, but the ball gets out of his hands quickly enough within 10-15 yards that even having to dial those risks back probably doesn’t completely kill him? Remember, Kyle’s offense just kinda does this with quarterbacks, because you can hide guys who suck under pressure or deep with all his horizontal stress. They’ll bring Lance back when healthy, but there’s a reasonable chance Purdy can give you roughly what Jimmy does as a backup, and the tape can take 8-10 games to catch up with you.

Purdy with a league average arm probably gets drafted like Day 2ish

TheGreyGhost fucked around with this message at 18:02 on Dec 22, 2022

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”

Relentlessboredomm posted:

wait Stroud has a Russell Wilson-esque religious obsession?

...hard pass for me on that one.

Dude literally responded to the criticism of the UM loss and giving up they did with “you know who else the world gave up on” *guitar strum* Dabo style. I don’t think he’s got the charisma to sell like fake concussion water or crosses, but he’s going to give some incredibly cringe-y press at the next level no matter how he does.

Holy shot can he throw a corner route though



BlindSite posted:

Thank you sir.

Kinda confirmed a little what my gut was telling me because watching him I thought gently caress those balls take forever to get to target outside the hashes but they just seem to.find the receiver.

As a general rule in watching QBs, if you unconsciously notice the ball is in air longer than you think, it probably was, at least in NFL parameters.

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”

Eifert Posting posted:

I'll never forget in the 2015 season seeing A.J. McCarron start multiple games live. The balls floated for an absurd amount of time.

Edit: I was used to seeing Andy Dalton and it was still shocking.

The one I will never forget is Ken Dorsey. If there is a supervillain origin story to me, it’s getting exposed to 3 Ken Dorsey NFL starts and being absolutely baffled how anyone could seriously believe an NFL quarterback could throw that weak of a ball.


In honor of tonight’s Zach Wilson start, I went back to the 2021 thread and read my comps and strengths/weaknesses. I remember calling Lawrence and Fields the top 2 but:

- Called Lawrence something between Stafford and prospect Peyton (this…doesn’t seem too far off at this point with above average processing and a willingness to rip). Occasionally pushed the ball too much and bent to pressure. Otherwise excellent. Feel very good about this one.

- Fields I nailed the ball holding and occasional middle of field misses, along with the occasional overlord. Did not expect him to be running this much but more surprised by the coach willingness than anything. He definitely does throw like Kyler, but he’s running far better than the Dak comparison I expected.

- Wilson, well, nailed that he wasn’t throwing guys open even with that release. Nailed him holding the ball too long and failing to rip longer throws. Jimmy G with better feet was probably too generous of a comparison, but he hasn’t grown at all.

- Mac, lmao Matt Leinart was dead on.

- Gonna withhold judgment on Trey for sample size to this point. Ideal situation Tyrod isn’t out of the question still.

- Trask as Henne holds up, but lol when 45 year old brady probably can still outthrow you in practice.

- Mond as Locker or Kizer with tools and only a theoretical game feel was dead on.

Sometimes I think I’m just a hater with these guys, but it really is super hard to become an NFL quarterback, much less a good one!

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”

SKULL.GIF posted:

Did Hyatt get bumped or pressed a single time in that highlight reel? Given his build (185 pounds!) feels like NFL corners are gonna just toss him to the ground.

I mean, they deliberately played him off the line or directly behind a flanker in the Tennessee Mickey Mouse special. He actually blocks way better than you would expect so I’m less worried about his physicality and wayyyy more worried about what happens when he doesn’t have space to operated by design or a truncated route tree. Downside is enough to compare him to Corey Coleman. I could see him easily turn out to be a Jeremy Maclin though.

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”

Ornery and Hornery posted:

Maclin had a glacial 4.45 40. Hyatt is vastly superior to such a turtle.

On a hyperextended knee lol. He was a 4.3 guy on tape, but what I love about the comparison is the way they schemed to keep him clean yet still managed to have him demonstrate some physicality. I saw someone compare him to Will Fuller which is probably a better comparison for him vertically, but I really think you can take Hyatt and make him into what the eagles used to do with DJax and Maclin with some patience. You need to work on his ability to sell double moves, intermediate routes, and any type of option route that requires him to read space over spots, but the athleticism is the type of thing that you can really really have fun with and he doesn’t have quite the dropsy traits that usually make me squeamish with these dudes.


Also, programming note, Mrs. TGG got me a new laptop for Christmas that should make life a lot easier for the rest of the season (this is the first year I was without a personal computer in…a while), so not having to phone post for the other effort posts or grade QB prospects in the Numbers App should make things a lot less headache inducing for the Edge/DT/WR effort posts. I do still intend to complete the stretch goal on the challenge this year but want people to be aware that I’m going to be lagging a bit while I consolidate my phone notes, pages files from iCloud, physical notebook, and chat notes since my paper trail this year was farrrr messier than usual.

TheGreyGhost fucked around with this message at 05:18 on Dec 30, 2022

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”

kiimo posted:

That’s not really the point, the point is he was supposed to be easily bumped and taken out of the play

Less that you could bump him and more “hey you typically use him as a decoy/vertical stretch and throw when they sag off of him”. He didn’t show an elite release or anything special running routes, but he was a vert merchant. Turns out that just like him and Olave, there is merit to guys who produce even though everyone knows what they’re doing and they just kinda do it smoothly. Hardest thing about projecting receivers is figuring out who falls in that category versus being a Corey Coleman or Marquise Lee.

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”

Ornery and Hornery posted:

I was told that Stroud crumpled in the face of pressure. I was told that Stroud failed when plays break down.

I was told lies!!!

His running ability and decisiveness today were insane, but it does fit the beat reporters indicating that he was absolutely a different dude after the Michigan game. Down your starting TE for most of the game and then your WR1 in a game winner situation and you still essentially had a chance. He made some really really bad pressure checks but nothing that killed them (I was actually at this game so I’ll probably go back and watch the tape once I’m over the bizarre game management at the end)

People have always overstated his freaking out though. He processes fine after the snap, it’s almost always that he misses a check at the line before the play. He runs backwards but like…with his arm I’m fine with it.


Bryce looked good today too. Showed pretty good follow through which had me thinking some of his fluttering this year was the injury.


I…find myself very very happy with this QB class and the likely next one. NFL development is never guaranteed, but it feels like we’re going to be over the Covid bump on this at least.

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”

Ornery and Hornery posted:

What is their reasoning? Seems like a silly narrative. As much as I wish otherwise, in real life people don't just suddenly go super Saiyan.

He’s essentially never been the “rah rah” guy on that offense. Going into the year that was JSN and Paris Johnson. If I’m being blunt about it, he’s always had the problem of being a little too honest about the business and almost necessary coping of the sport, whereas the lead up and post game of this were a lot more stereotypical “gave my all, would never go anywhere else” type poo poo that coaches tend to like. He still played a hell of a game so whatever attitude he had I’m fine with.


One of Justis Mosqueda or Charles McDonald called him QB3 by the time draft season is over with which is the stupidest draft brain poo poo I’ve heard in a while but also totally believable. Bryce’s improvisation is going to convince a team to take a flyer on him keeping things alive on a bad roster early. Levis has the big arm reclamation project and athleticism (even if his placement just isn’t in the same universe as Young/Stroud right now). CJ being a pinpoint dude just isn’t as sexy to the draft hype world because his arm is merely very good to great.


Also, please don’t fall for Max Duggan. He’s just a slightly more capable Ehlinger.

DTR feels like a dude who might be an okay backup on athleticism for a team that can keep him clean like Huntley but he still sprays the ball a lot past 10 yards which is going to annoy some coaches.

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”

Ornery and Hornery posted:

Who is the Daniel Faalele of this class?

I’m talking just a bear of a man. Paul Bunion vibes. Mitts the size of tennis rackets.

SIAKI IKA DT BAYLOR is around 360 pounds. A good start.

Dawand Jones if he comes out. Right down to the inconsistent pass sets and being almost too big to play OT

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”
The raiders replacing Derek Carr with a guy who is essentially a less proven Derek Carr is uh…sure McDaniels-y

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”
Johnson is fine but feels very very overhyped to me with people getting too accustomed to the extremely loaded WR classes the last few . It’s correct there is no Chase in this class. I’m watching some WR tape as a palate cleanser right now and it’s a very very weird class in general right now if you want a pass catcher. Lots of slot guys. Like a lot.

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”
Also lmao Duggan is just Sam Ehlinger part 2

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”

whos that broooown posted:

He looked...... really bad

He was never actually that good! Sonny is god tier at covering for mediocre quarterbacking. I might rage post about it if someone fucks up and rates him over like Jaren Hall

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”

wandler20 posted:

Even the ESPN guys today were saying he was a 3rd day pick at best. I'm not sure many people were saying he was gonna be a pro prospect.

I’ve seen 3-5 grades on him at TDN and a couple other places—that poo poo better go away fast because this could go like Peterman-bad. Walter Football put him over Hooker which feels like some type of hate crime.

TheGreyGhost fucked around with this message at 06:26 on Jan 10, 2023

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”

Forrest on Fire posted:

I don't think Bryce Young is a better prospect than Fields. I don't think they're going to go that route unless a team offers more capital for Fields than for the chance to take Young or Stroud

Bryce now is eerily similar to Fields now in terms of playing style—Fields just leaned more into running when someone remembered he’s like Dak sized and can handle it/it moves the offense better than assuming Claypool is a WR1. I guess you can make the argument Bryce has now played without the WR advantage and may be ready for the Bears offense but I’m not taking that bet. Same tendency to hang balls vertically. Same solid ball placement over the middle/intermediate zones. Difference is that you already have injury history with Bryce at the college level that could indicate you’ve got to be hyper aware of protecting him. 2 years of rookie contract back would help but are you really confident that you can protect the more brittle guy on that deal than just trying to build the roster around fields and know Williams/Maye are there next year if Fields doesn’t progress?

Stroud is a better passer right now than Fields on accuracy, less room to grow because Fields does have a bigger arm than you think and moves better. I also think he might do worse in that offense right now because who the gently caress do the bears have right now to help out any quarterback. Sure he can hit tighter windows but is Chase Claypool in a tight window winning football?

They have like $100m in cap space and should theoretically be able to lock up a lot of talent with that and even more in the draft. There’s no reason not to build the roster and know that you can trade up/suck later while raising the team ceiling.


Diva Cupcake posted:

Probably. There's almost zero chance someone is offering more for Fields than for the #1 but if this FO and coaching staff who didn't draft Fields thinks they have a higher ceiling with Young/Stroud while resetting the rookie deal timer, it has to be considered. These are their jobs on the line.

This is essentially the gambit. Their ceiling isn’t any better from the QB position, but the optics of being able to blame the old QB/regime get you some runway with dumber ownerships. As other people have mentioned though, successful Fields elsewhere would mean this looks reeeeeal bad if you’re wrong.

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TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”

SKULL.GIF posted:

At 360 pounds I'm wondering how he does against faster rushers.

He’ll struggle with some pure speed guys but he’s a pretty high end RT prospect. He was a high school Mr Basketball at 400 and has good feet. Bigger issue is pad level when turning, but he’s not as raw in pass as like Faalele.

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