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skooma512)
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Mr Hootington posted:Jpm expects 25bps Yeah, there's really zero justification to slow rate hikes or alter the terminal rate, at least if you buy the line that this was the correct move to manage risk and protect depositors. Slamming the brakes means there's zero confidence in this solution and zero confidence in the banking system as a whole. If higher interest rates are the correct tool to manage inflation and the US economy isn't a rolling dumpster fire, then you shouldn't need to worry about a total banking system collapse if you raise rates to an appropriate level to fight inflation.
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Mar 13, 2023 04:22
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SorePotato posted:I'm thinking the boom-bust cycle has been defeated by modern capitalism and that things will be good forever, which essentially bypasses socialism into a beautiful eco(nomic)-utopia They can't kill the labor market without eviscerating huge sectors of the economy and it's loving everything up.
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Mar 13, 2023 04:33
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There's going to be a massive rally literally because people think the banking system is so hosed that the fed can't possibly continue to raise rates lmao
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Mar 13, 2023 04:44
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Tech people going to be even more insufferable than usual for a while. Twitter folks really should've waited for a confirmed kill before busting out the champagne.
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Mar 13, 2023 05:27
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Material reality might catch up to any given person in this thread, but it won't catch up to the people who matter.
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Mar 13, 2023 06:04
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Mr Hootington posted:Remember for tomorrow. It will be weighted less now. But an increase is an increase. It's fun how everything is going to absolute poo poo well before the economy is actually in recession. All the big brain optimist economists keep screaming that there's no recession but, like, it'd almost be better if we were there already. Endless inflation, consumer credit spiraling out of control, bank failures, loan delinquencies, and all this is just the pre-show.
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Mar 14, 2023 04:36
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mastershakeman posted:Haven't we been in recession for 2 or 3 quarters now but the institutions changed the definitions because of being scared of Trump 24 The definition of a recession is basically that NBER reads the entrails and decides that we're in one, but you generally need a couple quarters of negative growth alongside rising unemployment so probably not. If the fed can't break the labor market then they probably don't have to ever admit that the economy is in recession. edit- also if you want to do number whispering then the inverted yield curve is a signal that a recession is coming but not here yet Paradoxish has issued a correction as of 04:45 on Mar 14, 2023 |
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Mar 14, 2023 04:42
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Yeah, in the US you have to consult the high priests before you're allowed to say that negative GDP growth means recession.
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Mar 14, 2023 04:49
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Used car prices will never actually come down again.
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Mar 14, 2023 05:58
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Mr Hootington posted:Shelter being 70% of the increase is why the fed will continue to raise rates. It does lag, but the signs of it "disinflating" are too slow for what the fed wants and needs. If a rate pause or hike happens you will see shelter resurge. My phone has already hit me with three separate articles this morning that can barely contain their excitement about the collapse of SVB inevitably leading to lower mortgage rates. Absolutely everyone is pricing in the insane idea that not only will the fed halt hikes, but that they're also going to start cutting rates soon.
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Mar 14, 2023 14:50
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In Training posted:https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/1635636620408881154?s=20 I'm glad economists are now just openly admitting that their entire profession is a sham.
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Mar 14, 2023 15:23
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spacemang_spliff posted:I don't have money brains but I don't understand doing inflation but not including rent or food. Most people have to pay rent and everyone has to buy food. Not including it makes
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Mar 14, 2023 15:35
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Woke Mind Virus posted:these are the top academics in economics, finding a problem they don't know the answer to and just shrugging their shoulders. lmao. It's not that they don't know the answer, it's that they're ideologically opposed to the very existence of the problem.
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Mar 14, 2023 16:14
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Eric Cantonese posted:I get why you guys are dunking on Twitter economists for admitting that they don't know what's going on, but I at least appreciate them saying they don't know what's going on rather than just stubbornly admitting that their original position was correct. But they are stubbornly sticking to their original positions. The post everyone is dunking on is Wolfy literally saying "any of these things can be true but I'm picking the one that supports the (consistently incorrect) position that I've held for the past two years."
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Mar 14, 2023 16:39
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I'm also not entirely convinced that you can stop something like this through censorship without making the problem much, much worse.
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Mar 14, 2023 19:00
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Mr Hootington posted:Lmao at the oil markets telling us an immediate recession is coming. 10-2 yield spread trying to get positive again also probably a good sign that it's not too far off now tbh
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Mar 15, 2023 15:48
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Der Meister posted:this says over 90% of SVB’s depositors had over 250k?????? what????? There was a reason that senators were talking about a bailout within hours of things kicking off. People should honestly be livid at the government response here.
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Mar 15, 2023 15:58
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Yeah, the whole point with CS is that they're a shithole of a bank endlessly plagued by scandals. If they actually "collapse" it means they finally did something big enough that they can't just fire a handful of people or have their CEO walk away and be like "oops we did an espionage lol"
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Mar 15, 2023 16:10
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Mr Hootington posted:I don't think the banks are strong like some claim if rate hikes have to be paused or even cut This is what I was trying to say the other day. If you want to believe the economy is good and strong, then there's no reason for the fed to back off on rate hikes or fall back on their >5% terminal rate. Something has been very wrong for over a decade if the funds rate can't even touch its pre-2008 level without collapsing everything.
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Mar 15, 2023 16:52
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The economy isn't on life support but also we need 0% interest rates forever or everyone dies.
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Mar 15, 2023 16:54
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Pepe Silvia Browne posted:Half the posters in this thread have trained themselves to think like Jim Cramer and other CNBC dipshits because they can't see something bad without automatically tacking on "but it won't matter number will be fine" There are tons of posters here who will sagely agree that the markets aren't the economy and that the stock market is detached from reality, and then still throw their hands up in the air in despair when the market... continues to ignore reality, as it has always done.
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Mar 15, 2023 17:03
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Slow News Day posted:I have to say, if the US saves its banking system and it ends up collapsing anyway because of a European bank melting down, it'll be... something. Our banking system being such a fragile piece of poo poo that the crime bank can knock it over wouldn't be particularly surprising, no.
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Mar 15, 2023 18:24
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SKULL.GIF posted:I thought HSBC was the crime bank. Or was that DB? ok one of the crime banks
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Mar 15, 2023 18:26
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So just to clarify, there's still no detailed information on the "material weaknesses" CS reported, right? Everything that's happening right now is essentially self-reinforcing panic that this might be the big one?
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Mar 15, 2023 18:51
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I love our big strong financial system that threatens to collapse and die every time someone looks at it
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Mar 15, 2023 18:56
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You know everything is good when national regulators need to make daily announcements that everything is good, stable.
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Mar 15, 2023 19:34
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gradenko_2000 posted:This is actually extremely important. The hands thing is just the most egregious issue but consider an AI that can never place the buttons on a shirt correctly. It's fundamental to how all these models work and it's basically unsolvable. It's why all the scammers pumping out "Learn to code with ChatGPT!" courses on Udemy are tacking entire Python (or whatever) courses onto the front end, because you can't use these models for anything even remotely technical without fully understanding and being able to edit the output.
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Mar 16, 2023 02:26
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I'm glad there's infinite money at the federal reserve. Thanks for making this very normal and reasonable statement. I am calm now.
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Mar 16, 2023 02:37
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Borrowing $54b to halt a crisis means the crisis never existed in the first place. Checkmate, doomers.
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Mar 16, 2023 03:09
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Beached Whale posted:The solution to no one wanting to work anymore is to make the conditions for working worse. Bing bong Labor will be broken and it won't matter what people want. Just wait for the inevitable recession to clear out a lot of the small business trash and consolidate employment back to a point where workers have zero bargaining power.
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Mar 16, 2023 15:40
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Objective Action posted:https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1636392377727303680 lmao so much for the argument that this poo poo is about protecting depositors and not specific depositors hahaha
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Mar 16, 2023 17:24
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comedyblissoption posted:this public statement might incite bank runs defeating one of the major reasons you would want to bail svb depositors lol There was never any serious risk that SVB depositors wouldn't get back most of their money, or even all of it given enough time. A ton of this panic is entirely because the government rushed out to guarantee deposits with infinite money, making an already bad situation seem far, far worse. Now they need to walk this poo poo back because "the federal reserve has infinite money and all deposits are guaranteed" is a batshit insane statement.
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Mar 16, 2023 17:32
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anime was right posted:we are about to see housing prices double again Housing prices are going to double and mortgage rates are going to stay steady and the median mortgage payment will be $5000/mo by next year
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Mar 17, 2023 00:10
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Glumwheels posted:I’m going to sell my house and move somewhere cheaper and use the difference to not have a mortgage. That silly. Just wait for your home to be worth ten times your mortgage and for the dollar to be worthless.
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Mar 17, 2023 01:01
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"Time to pay my mortgage," I mutter as I fish pocket change out of my wheelbarrow of dollars
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Mar 17, 2023 01:03
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Probably why there are some minor attempts at walking back the "everything everywhere insured all at once" line.
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Mar 17, 2023 15:05
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Spoondick posted:looks like the home solar industry is taking a hit maybe in anticipation of interest rate hikes and tightening home lending from all the banks collapsing The home solar industry is absolutely filled with scammers pushing various financing schemes so this isn't surprising at all. Residential solar is similar to residential roofing in that it's a finance/sales industry first and a contracting industry second.
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Mar 17, 2023 15:19
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Mirthless posted:As far as I can tell the primary driver of AI generative art investment is businesses wanting to replace corporate art departments. Nobody is going to pay for this kind of art ever again once the technology gets to the appropriate baseline. It's bascially there now. I just dont see the point in hiring people to draw diverse throwaway cartoons of people eating salad when the AI can do an equally good job The problem is that trends in design tend to shift fairly rapidly and most of these companies actually do like to have recognizable and brandable styles. Generative art might be able to replicate the current look, but it'll struggle to produce anything new and then consistently follow through. I can maybe see graphic design roles shifting to be more about producing AI training data than final artwork, though, and honestly that seems a little more dystopian to me.
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Mar 17, 2023 15:49
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Frosted Flake posted:Why are Americans like this? Right wing idiots follow an ideology based entirely on being terrified and needing to create as many security blankets for themselves as possible. They're scared of change, they're scared of people who don't look like them, and they're terrified of the government. "Private companies can always do it better" is another security blanket that makes them feel better about themselves, their place in the world, and their ability to be "free."
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Mar 18, 2023 17:44
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| # ¿ May 17, 2024 18:50 |
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apatheticman posted:How the gently caress could they not see like half a move a head here? Anyone who paid even passing attention to the COVID response understands very clearly that the people in charge are idiots who mostly buy their own bullshit and fundamentally can't plan for anything beyond the immediate horizon. The world makes a lot of sense when you realize that it's evil children running the show, not evil geniuses.
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Mar 18, 2023 23:28
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