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Main Paineframe posted:unless he gets lucky enough for something to knock Trump out of the race. I still can’t believe these people (DeSantis, Haley, whoever) had zero plan for Trump angrily flinging poop at them which is completely predictable. No strategy whatsoever to engage the guy. The idea that they could somehow ignore and not engage with him seems absolutely absurd. The whole thing seems based entirely on the assumption that he would not run or somehow would get taken out by death, illness or the criminal justice system. There seems to have been no realistic plan for any other scenario. Now maybe it will turn out that Trump WILL be taken out by one of those things prior to the primaries beginning in earnest but that doesn’t seem like a very good bet right now. If I could by 99 percent certain instead of 60 percent certain that Trump would lose again in a general election I might be more happy about this. But I’d rather the guy was just completely out of American politics.
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Mar 30, 2023 17:09
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James Garfield posted:I suspect covid helped Trump. Other countries mostly reelected their leaders and the government transferred a huge amount of money to average people. I'm not sure I undrstand what you are saying here. Are you saying that Trump would have lost even worse than he did in the election if not for covid?
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Apr 9, 2023 00:29
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Morrow posted:Trump would have lost even worse in the election if not for covid. I guess I have to disagree. I feel like there's a significant number of voters who voted Biden or didn't turn out who would have happily voted Trump if the stock market was still riding high, no new war and he hadn't demonstrated a chaotic and corrupt nonresponse to Covid. Likely enough to win him the election IMO. Edit: And yes, instead of covid (IMO) hurting Trump he could have easily used it to shore up support and win crossover votes if he'd made even the weakest most token attempt to look like he was trying to do something instead of following his first and only instinct in all things, stoking division and hatred. Zwabu fucked around with this message at 00:54 on Apr 9, 2023 |
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Apr 9, 2023 00:49
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:None of these dweebs can respond to Donnie poo poo slinging on his level. Puddin hands, meet Lyin Ted and Little Marco. It's not just that they can't beat Trump at this game. It's that they refuse to even PLAY the game or engage Trump in any way, it's a freaking joke. I mean yeah Ted and Marco tried a little and failed but those guys have been humiliated enough by Trump and understand that they have no chance challenging him in 2024 and no way will they enter this cycle. But Ron and Tim Scott and Haley are entering this race (presumably in the case of Ron) somehow with a plan that they might win without ever engaging or attacking their main opponent. Their runs seem based entirely on the presumption that Trump will either not run (too late, he's in the race), will drop out, be jailed or die or become medically infirm prior to the election, or that he will somehow refrain from throwing poop at them like Donkey Kong throwing flaming barrels. In the case of Haley, and maybe Scott, perhaps it's just a VP audition in which case it might actually make sense. But no way will DeSantis ever be Trump's VP even if he wanted it, Trump would never tolerate a potential rival to be one heart attack away from taking his job. I mean it looks like maybe DeSantis is just a paper tiger anyway and he just wouldn't have the chops to get elected President, Trump or not. But it certainly looks like he would have been a lot better off just sitting this one out like Ted and Marco instead of making the motions to run. He's (making motions like he's) coming at the king. And it's looking like he missed. Badly.
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Apr 15, 2023 00:48
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Sir Lemming posted:But it is funny how the entire party is now defined by loyalty to him, so he's essentially impossible to run against. But in some sense, how can they just... not? These two sentences pretty much sum up my  over the whole GOP primaries. If the candidates are all going to acknowledge that the GOP is defined by Trump and loyalty to him, why even run in this cycle unless you had some plan to get around that fact outside of "maybe God will strike him down with a thunderbolt/stroke".
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Apr 15, 2023 03:13
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Edge & Christian posted:Given that the 500 accounts it follows on Twitter include Gateway Pundit, Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr, Roger Stone, MTG, Ron DeSantis, Benny Johnson, Kari Lake, Dinesh D'Souza, "End Wokeness", Tucker Carlson, Babylon Bee, Charlie Kirk, Herschel Walker, OANN, RedState, the Epoch Times, Mike Flynn, Wendy Rogers, Steven Crowder, Nick Adams, Lauren Boebert, Matt Gaetz, Mike Lindell, Libs of Tik Tok, James O'Keefe, Thomas Massive, Ana Paulina Luna, Ronnie Jackson, Dan Scavino, and several dozen screen names containing MAGA/ULTRAMAGA/DEPLORABLE it's not super hard to do a quick check to confirm where that agenda might lie. Seems like the method would be for the LeadingReport account to tweet out completely fabricated lies and nonsense and then immediately get retweeted and amplified by the Trump right wing shithead army so the rumors gain traction.
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Apr 15, 2023 19:50
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Today I reliaze that I now go months at a time forgetting there was such a thing as Trump's nonexistent border wall, him bullying everyone about it and braying about Mexico paying for it. That makes me really happy!
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Apr 16, 2023 00:16
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BiggerBoat posted:Arrest him using who exactly and which judicial arm? I would think that lying for years on your taxes about hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars in income must be a criminal offense? What's judicial immunity? Are SC Justices supposed to not be able to be charged or prosecuted for a crime? They can just go around shooting people? What?
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Apr 16, 2023 19:18
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Corruption issues of whether Thomas’s Supreme Court votes are bought and paid for aside, if he doesn’t declare financial gifts on his taxes could that be a crime of just being a simple tax cheat?
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May 5, 2023 19:55
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What the gently caress kind of articles did this reporter write before this? JFC reads like junior high yearbook copy.
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May 8, 2023 04:17
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How, as a rich person, do you get to arbitrarily and indefinitely put off a jail sentence?
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May 8, 2023 14:11
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zoux posted:why do they call it a vaccine? Because the treatment is based on invoking an immune response against antigens found in pancreatic cancer. Most traditional oncology treatments are aimed at directly destroying or removing cancer tissue (radiation or surgery) or targeting cell division like chemo. Since one of the hallmarks of most cancers is out of control, unregulated cell division leading to rapid growth, tissue invasion, metastasis etc., targeting tissues that rapidly divide is somewhat selective for cancer but it has effects upon the parts of your body that grown and divide more rapidly than other parts like your digestive tract, hair etc. So the holy grail of cancer treatment is something that specifically targets only the cancer tissue. If your immune system can be stimulated or programmed to target the cancer tissue so much the better, it can be an ongoing response that keeps any recurrence under control. This can be problematic since cancers originate usually from your own cells which is why they are often not effectively eliminated through immunity Zwabu fucked around with this message at 21:18 on May 10, 2023 |
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May 10, 2023 21:12
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Kanos posted:Mike Pence might be one of the most confusing people in modern politics. He spent four years being the most spineless rear end-licking doormat he could possibly be, then threw all of that rear end-licking out in one go when he suddenly grew a spine on January 6th, and has spent every moment since trying to pretend that he never grew the spine in the first place. He's now running one of the most perplexing campaigns I've ever seen or read about - he's running against a man who fingered him as a traitor and tried to have him killed but refuses to say a single harsh word about that man. As far as the Republican base goes, he's the singular figure responsible for the dethroning of their god king. They wanted to hang him. How on earth does he think he can appeal to them? I feel this way about all the GOP primary contestants but about DeSantis most of all because he was the only one who seemed like he might actually have a chance. If you’re not going to challenge or attack Trump in any way you have zero chance to win. Auditioning for VP I get, but otherwise the only apparent strategy is hope he dies has a stroke or winds up in jail ahead of or during primaries.
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May 16, 2023 17:28
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Zamujasa posted:You'd think this, but it is entirely possible in our system that one party wins only 11 states and takes the election: If they won these particular eleven states it wouldn't be that much of a travesty, the number of states is misleading as California has about a billion Wyomings worth of population etc.
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May 18, 2023 05:31
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Yureina posted:More than that, who comes after Biden? Harris? Newsom? Is Bernie secretly a vampire and will be good to run in 2028? Whitmer? Duckworth? Newsom? Sherrod Brown? Just because we spend all our time here talking about Biden and his lame VP pick and Bernie doesn't mean there's zero bench.
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May 19, 2023 06:25
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Liquid Communism posted:I don't honestly think he wants the nomination, as seen by that bill to let him run without giving up the governorship, but I think he sees it as a good way to grift some funds and distract the feds while he serves up what he sees as softballs to the Opus Dei fanatic conservatives on the SCOTUS regarding social policy. I don't think that bill is in any way an indication that he doesn't want to get nominated. He absolutely wants the presidency or he wouldn't bother with any of this. The bill is just a way of hedging his bet, he didn't have the confidence (and rightly so lol) that he was going to win the nomination so he wanted to be able to maintain his status as governor if he failed/flamed out. If he were out of office entirely after flaming out he'd have a much harder time getting the nomination in the future.
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May 22, 2023 11:26
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Tim Scott gave a long sit-down interview with NBC. What a bumbling clown, buffoon. Hardly deep analysis I know but I can’t read that mess and think anything else.
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May 24, 2023 19:14
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So did Newt Gingrich originate debt ceiling hostage taking as part of his total war vision of congressional politics?
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May 26, 2023 17:44
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IPlayVideoGames posted:Newt Gingrich shut the government down because he was mad about where he got seated on an airplane. Oh that's right, government shutdown. But still it seems like this was the original version of congressional hostage taking. It just seems like government shutdown is pointing a shotgun at your family, debt default is moving up to putting a nuclear bomb in the center of the city. Is Mitch responsible for the default version of hostage taking?
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May 26, 2023 18:59
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ffttTfH4Pg&t=81s DeSantis trying to be subtle and indirect in calling out Trump by referring to the GOP developing a "culture of losing" is hilarious and pathetic. Like, political messaging has to be simple and dumb and aimed at the getting through to the dumbest knuckle dragging troggs in the world. Even political junkies like me have to squint a little for a second or two before realizing "oh hey he's talking about the fact that Trump lost where he won, and dragged the GOP to a bunch of winnable losses in the midterms". This poo poo will easily sail over the head of 80 percent of GOP primary voters and the attack on Trump will be easily ignored or denied by the rest. I mean, you have to literally hold up a big ugly picture of Trump (preferably the one in the tennis shorts) and say "HEY! THIS GUY IS A BIG FAT LOSER! HE LOST!!!! And he made a bunch of other GOP people lose, and picked a bunch of losing losers!"
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May 27, 2023 20:15
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I’m also pretty shocked at the twenty percent for RFK Jr. and have to assume the majority of those are unfamiliar with the crazy anti vax stuff and are responding only to the familiar name.
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May 27, 2023 22:14
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Killer robot posted:Yeah, that's just it. DeSantis has a "Trump drops dead" victory condition and RFK Jr. does not. Yeah. If Trump dropped dead I do think DeSantis would in fact probably be the nominee despite everything. If the same happened to Biden then Newsom or Sherrod Brown or any number of credible others would jump in and steamroll RFK Jr.
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May 27, 2023 22:18
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James Garfield posted:I mean Trump is a heavy favorite but there are plenty of serious opponents, and if Trump got trampled by rhinos tomorrow Desantis would be the favorite out of those. Every scenario in which Biden is not the 2024 nominee has other Democrats announce campaigns, Williamson and RFK Jr have an actually 0 probability of being the nominee. It's like comparing Ted Cruz to the guy who got 42% against Obama in Arkansas because they both finished in second place. Yeah this is why the twenty percent number for RFK Jr is so funny and obviously meaningless. Similar polling number but completely different situation. The other big factor in the GOP race is that the front runner is actually a former president, something we’ve not had since Nixon almost eighty years ago. If no one had been president then it would be a lot more possible for Trump’s polling to collapse in certain situations. But Trump supporters have now been with him not only through campaign stuff like Access Hollywood but also his shittastic presidency AND January 6. Very little would peel away that support. The 2022 midterms were about the only thing that caused Trump to lose support. If DeSantis is going to actually attach Trump for losing and promoting a bunch of losers he’s going to have to make that argument explicitly, this weak sauce “culture of losing” won’t do.
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May 27, 2023 22:33
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https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/30/chris-stewart-resign-congress-00099283 So Chris Stewart of Utah’s 2nd Congressional District is resigning. Since it is Utah I assume he will likely be replaced by another Republican after a special election. Does the GOP having one less rep make any difference during the period in between? There also seems to have been no news on George Santos lately.
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May 31, 2023 17:16
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Wow, GOP candidate Will Hurd actually coming out and saying Trump and DeSantis are wrong on Ukraine policy and advocates more vigorous support. Color me surprised.
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Jun 25, 2023 17:54
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Main Paineframe posted:Comparing US and EU racism doesn't really work because the situations are different. The US has a much larger minority population, and has thus had to grapple with the presence of minorities and the legacies of old racist policies in ways that the EU largely hasn't. This is a very good post. I have always felt that racism and the legacy of slavery is original sin of American politics, it is the fault line underlying everything, it is the fuel that powers the engine of our politics even now, centuries later. Felt like we were maybe trying to come to an actual reckoning with this in the post civil rights movement era but now with Trumpism, the embrace of white grievance and immigrant and CRT bashing we are running away from that reckoning as fast as we can.
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Jun 28, 2023 16:32
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zoux posted:That and Donald Trump salting his earth. Turns out being a dipshit loudmouth rear end in a top hat fuckface only works for exactly one politician in America. I mean look at this poo poo: What the everloving christ with the last 2/3 of that ad. He is so lame. Why doesn't he just quit now before all his donors bail. On the one hand I am not at all happy about the prospect of Trump just sailing to the nomination against a bunch of nimrods who won't even run against him at all aside from Christie and Asa Hutchinson (whatever this... is from DeSantis doesn't count at all IMO). But on the other hand, lmfao at DeSantis and gently caress him. Most hilarious option would be if Trump gets torpedoed by legal troubles or his health, and one of these other randos slides right in front of DeSantis to the nomination.
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Jul 3, 2023 18:58
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Shooting Blanks posted:As far as I'm aware, nothing about Trump's current legal troubles will prevent him from running. I'm not even sure any of his legal troubles will strip him of supporters, but that is speculation. His health, on the other hand - he can afford the absolute best health care in the world. It's a crapshoot to bet on that. Eh I wouldn't count on any of that which is why my baseline assumption right now is that Trump will simply slide into the nomination, and this thought gives me no joy.
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Jul 3, 2023 19:04
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Does anyone besides me find mainstream news outlets way too eager to present the RFK Jr presidential candidacy as some kind of semi credible thing? I mean I realize there was some poll that had him at 22 percent or so when he jumped in, but when I listen to things like NYT podcasts covering him it's always in terms of "this is why it could be a big problem for Joe Biden!" but no examination of "well a good chunk of that might be Kennedy name recognition from people who have no idea dude is an antivax weirdo, let's see if it holds up for a month or so". There is absolutely nothing in what the guy has said or done that says anything other than weird cranky weirdo to me, his candidacy seems profoundly unserious.
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Jul 11, 2023 18:00
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Jesus I really hate today's news emphasis on "did Trump actually believe he had lost the election or not?" Even if he was totally convinced in his maniacal deluded brain that he'd won, it's just as loving criminal for him to try and seize power as if he didn't believe it, since he LOST. It's an angle that makes it real easy to give Trump some kind of deniability on the whole thing that he is in no way entitled to.
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Jul 14, 2023 02:03
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BiggerBoat posted:I notice this too. Kennedy gets amplified quite a bit on am talk radio and I'm pretty sure it's not because Republicans like his policies or platform. I assume the idea is to weaken Biden with a legit primary challenge but I'm not sure who they're targeting since most Democrats don't listen to that poo poo. I honestly wouldn't mind primarying Biden tbh but, man, the Democratic bench looks super loving thin and if Kennedy is all we've got then...well..it's frustrating. Virtually any Dem statewide officeholder is way more viable a candidate than RFK Jr. Whitmer? Sherrod Brown? Duckworth? Newsom? Pritzker? etc. He just gets more press than them right now because he is running. Age aside the important fact is that Biden is the incumbent president. He beat Trump and he is not incompetent. That is a high bar for any primary challenger to clear. The incumbent is the presumptive nominee unless they are clearly incompetent or have some new scandal arise beyond what has been sloshing around since the original election. It is not ideal that Biden is ancient but a credible candidate won’t challenge him unless he has a sudden health crisis arise etc. You are only going to get the RFK Jr, Marianne Williamson etc. There is a Democratic bench but they are not challenging the incumbent as is entirely to be expected.
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Jul 15, 2023 23:21
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:According to Pew, somewhere between 8% and 12% of voters regularly switch sides in Presidential elections. It's not a huge amount, but it is enough to swing elections. In a 2 party system where the vote differential is often less than five percent this is actually huge in terms of effect on outcome.
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Jul 17, 2023 19:25
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Complexion, eh?
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Jul 27, 2023 20:42
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FLIPADELPHIA posted:As an aside, popular theory is that that particular lady was a fairly infamous poster on the ultra conservative forum Free Republic. She ended up dying a few years later, thankfully. Which one was she thought to be?
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Aug 5, 2023 21:19
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Mellow Seas posted:It's gotta sting for Tucker that after all that time thinking people loved him, it was just the little animated network logo in the corner of the screen* that they loved, and he was just another replaceable cog in the machine. It is amazing how quickly Tucker has completely vanished from the national consciousness.
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Aug 17, 2023 15:46
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FLIPADELPHIA posted:When did Christie pivot from being a lap dog to being a critic though? I think the timing of that change is pretty important. I think it was around January 6th but I can't recall for sure. I feel like Trump giving Christie Covid and Christie getting seriously ill from it may have been a turning point, especially since Trump clealry knew he had it and completely disregarded Christie's safety.
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Aug 19, 2023 15:30
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Is there any chance that DeSantis flaming out of this primary in spectacular fashion, revealing himself to be a cyborg completely lacking in human qualities, and the results of his campaign against "woke" and Disney will harm his political standing in Florida and create openings there?
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Aug 21, 2023 15:52
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koolkal posted:If Trump dies, he is the 2nd highest polling Republican candidate. That seems like a good enough reason to run? Is this consistently true or just one poll showing this?
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Aug 22, 2023 20:37
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Craig K posted:god, after trump dies there will absolutely be a couple decades of "i saw him pumping gas at an east duluth shell station" like there was with elvis No, because if the right wing media complex continues to exist he will be memory holed even more quickly and completely than Reagan and GWB are right now, who were at least two termers.
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Aug 23, 2023 20:49
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small butter posted:I'm 100% sure that if it came down to Trump and Vivek and maybe some other guy, Trump will call him something racist and Vivek will not have any self-reflection about how he came to this point. You just know Trump is going to go with "Swami". And Vivek is just going to take it.
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Aug 26, 2023 00:22
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