USCE 2023: Please let them shove a camera up your butt

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USCE 2023: Please let them shove a camera up your butt

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Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

Velocity Raptor posted:

Got curious and checked it out and there is a flurry of comments and replies happening right now. Most of it is exactly what you'd expect, but there were a few gems that stood out.

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USCE Spring 2023 - understand guns don't kill people guns kill people. Period - end of story.

I am surprised that even some Fox News commentators have realized that you can't fortressify our way out of soft target spree killings with man-held machine guns.

# ¿ Mar 27, 2023 18:30

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# ¿ May 11, 2024 16:08

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

PT6A posted:

I'm not handwaving them away, I'm saying in a sane country even die-hard conservative partisans would say "you know, these constant shootings are getting to be a bit much, loving do something about them" and then it wouldn't matter how you suppressed the vote or gerrymandered them because no one would vote for rabid 2nd amendment loons.

There would still be a lot of other policy issues, the system would still favour capital and racism and all that horrible poo poo, it would not fix every problem, but you need a certain amount of absolute nuts to sustain the current policy positions on gun control, because they are utterly insane.

Gerrymandering and under-representation (you'd have to quadruple the size of congress to get a population to representative ratio close to Australia) is doing a drat lot of work that you're consciously saying doesn't matter just because you know that assholes exist.

# ¿ Mar 27, 2023 22:45

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

cat botherer posted:

Such a weird hill for the NYT to die on. It's damaging to their reputation and obviously causing severe morale problems. What's the motivation? Do these articles get that many more clicks, or is it actually some kind of direct animus against trans people beyond indifference? I guess this sort of thing is historically on-brand, but still.

Historically on-brand and also the One Weird Trick they can use to establish a both-sides beach-head in the culture war now that Roe v Wade is dead.

# ¿ Mar 28, 2023 17:30

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

It would be hilarious if the two weeks Biden spent in South Carolina somehow became the hot topic of their DA but unless Delaware makes a shot at him he's probably fine.

# ¿ Mar 31, 2023 01:35

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

Ghost Leviathan posted:

IIRC jury nullification was widely used to let murderers off for lynchings, it's always been a double edged sword.

You are correct, the whole concept of a Lynching was to share culpability across the possible jury pool

# ¿ Mar 31, 2023 16:19

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

Mellow Seas posted:

Regular ol' New Yorkers, savin' the day by throwing garbage like the Roosevelt Island tram riders in Raimi's Spider-Man.

Also, although ACAB applies there as much as anywhere else, I would guess that given its diversity, the NYPD may actually lean Democratic among its rank-and-file (in a very centrist, coppy way of course), and is more hostile to white supremacy. That could inhibit the ability of groups like the PB to operate there and get the favorable treatment they've come to expect from cops.

There are multiple videos of the NYPD running over black protestors and the fascists that crashed the Drag event got a personal guard to take them out of the counter-protest. The facts do not support your hypothesis.

# ¿ Mar 31, 2023 16:27

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

Mellow Seas posted:

You quoted this, but did you read it?

You don't have to be a cop apologist or ignorant of the NYPD to hypothesize that black and Latin cops cause the Proud Boys and other white supremacists to be less comfortable, or that those cops will be less forgiving of their violence than the white cops will be. (I saw firsthand the difference between white cops and minority cops in the NYPD - they're all bad but the white cops are noticeably worse.) I know cops are deeply brainwashed by their organization, and that even minority cops have a strong tendency to be racist in their policing, but there's still a person in there.

What evidence is there to support your hypothesis that non-white cops cause the street-fighting brownshirts who get protected and saved by those cops to be "uncomfortable": Were there no Black officers that day? Did the fascist thugs give interviews about how they would have been able to do worse if it wasn't for the watchful eye of a Black man in uniform?

# ¿ Mar 31, 2023 21:17

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

TheDisreputableDog posted:

Do you guys think it’s possible that poor white people in flyover, industrial burnout areas have legitimately been victimized in the last 50 years?

NAFTA is 29 years old and the Great Recession was 15 years ago, but I'm not seeing anything that strikes those white people in any particular way. 50 years to now- 1973- the only noteworthy thing to argue is that seeing a Black guy hold a lightsaber in Star Wars and other cultural norms of white suprmemacy dying is a particular injury.

# ¿ Apr 2, 2023 18:46

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

Trans bigotry is a replacement beach-head in the NYT to further its culture war in a post-Roe v Wade reality, for the obvious reason that we now live in a post-Roe v Wade reality. Why would the conservatives of the NYT ever stop running the playbook that got them what they want?

# ¿ Apr 2, 2023 21:46

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

It depends by what you mean as "the base."

The Republican base (in terms of its largest amount of votes) is white men without a college degree who identify as evangelical Christians. That group usually isn't especially high-income.

But, they also have a very large chunk of votes from the groups you mentioned and they wouldn't be able to win without either.

It's the same way that the "base" (in terms of largest amount of voters) in the Democratic party is technically college-educated, single, non-religious, white women. But, they also have a huge chunk of their vote that comes from low-income racial minorities who generally have much higher religiosity and lower education that they couldn't win without.

So, the non-white voters aren't a majority of the Democrats' votes, but they do massively overperform in that demographic and couldn't win without them. Same thing with the Republicans and "petty bourg, landlords, business owners, and retirees" in their coalition.

They don't make up the majority of their votes, but they dramatically overperform with them and would not be able to win without them. So, it depends whether you consider "the base" is the group where you get your most votes or the group that you get fewer total votes with, but overperform with and couldn't win without.

The rhetorical trick occurring here is a conflation of the "not high-income" with the actual poor. The white petite-bourgeoisie doesn't have to take yearly ski-trips to Colorado to vote along class consciousness.

Poverty sucks but is so less common among white people than the general population of america that caring about white poverty exclusively is a foolish worry, and to accept the premise that they form a base of anything is to accept that the reason the non-white poor vote against the GOP has more to do with what violence they promise to enact against the Black and indigenous and queer.

# ¿ Apr 3, 2023 15:11

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

Mellow Seas posted:

Uhhh... who is proposing that??? I don't think even our token conservative supports that approach.

It's something you do have to think about, though, because it has different causes and different solutions from minority poverty. There is the type of poverty that happens in the inner rings of big metro areas, right under the noses of the wealthy who work in the glass towers, and there is the type of poverty that happens when you're dozens or even hundreds of miles from any useful economic activity. We can't really afford not to address either.

I'll leave some of OP's posts with the white-exclusive parts bolded to help establish that I am, in fact, reading and reacting to the real argument. But I agree that there are different systems that enact impoverishment: Poverty of geography, of economic activity that requires an underclass because it takes a lot of poor people to allow one private plane trip, of white supremacy. I do not think that one can easily separate and treat the symptoms without talking about the system itself.

TheDisreputableDog posted:

This is the heart of the matter - poor white people are the only group the left feels empowered to punch down on. Taking a poor white person whose direct environment is endemic with worse education, lower real wages, shorter lifespans, more violence, and rampant drug use and sneering down at them about white privilege and claiming they aren’t “real victims” is exactly how we got Trump.

“Republicans are evil” feels good in a juvenile way, but from a realpolitik perspective, that’s not a solution. Seventy-five million people (about 2 in 10 of them minorities!) aren’t going away. Put another way, you wouldn’t hand-wave Muslims away as evil because their belief system and be used to oppress and cause violence, right? People are products of and influenced by their environments.

TheDisreputableDog posted:

Do you guys think it’s possible that poor white people in flyover, industrial burnout areas have legitimately been victimized in the last 50 years?

# ¿ Apr 3, 2023 15:30

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

TheDisreputableDog posted:

You bolded some white references because we were talking about Trump voters. Now go back and bold the “exclusive” parts of my argument, or you can always just apologize.

Making repeated insistance that its important to talk about Trump's explicitly white poor supporters in exclusion to Trump's poor supporters in general is the exclusivity, and as I said before there is nothing to mention about the specifically white poor on a systemic level since 1973- the 50 years you forwarded- that isn't just the slow fade of white supremacy.

# ¿ Apr 3, 2023 16:54

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

TheDisreputableDog posted:

So responding to someone claiming that white poor people deserve to be poor is actually exclusionary and racist.

Absurd.

Hmm...

Angry_Ed posted:

A lot of the people that support Trump seem have a Victim/Persecution complex, and in Trump they have an avatar. A whiny, self-obsessed wannabe dictator that is never at fault for anything, all of the problems are because of "them". Whether "them" is defined (FBI/Deep State/Minorities/LGBTQ+) or just left nebulous because they somehow know they can't just out and out say it (i.e. using "globalists" to represent the old "jews control everything" conspiracy). And of course they, like Trump, are under constant attack. Having to deal with such horrible things like acknowledging people might have different ideas and feelings of gender identity or that our own understanding of gender identity is changing.

I keep hoping this angry thrashing is the final death throes of a dead ideology but unfortunately that is not the case. Not yet anyway.

No, you are incorrect about what point you were arguing against, and demanding that we must talk about exclusively white poor people is you having your own personal bone to gnaw, like some kind of... disreputable dog.

# ¿ Apr 3, 2023 18:02

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

Levitate posted:

I could be wrong because I’m just guessing here but with republicans leaning in culture wars poo poo I feel like you’ll get fewer people voting solely for them for lower taxes etc as they get older since they see the other bullshit that’s the real agenda
But maybe that supposed shift never really existed to begin with and has always just been excuse for people who favored republican policies from the beginning

There was a whole plague in the 80s-90s that focused on killing younger men with a likelyhood based mostly on being cool. Survivor bias is one hell of a trick when you can policy-outcome who survives.

# ¿ Apr 9, 2023 15:19

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

Water rights are one of those things that completely obliterate the common white-picket-fenced castle understanding of property law and when the rubber hits the road in the southwest a lot of people who only thought of things like commute times and good schools are going to have big shocks about the life they chose.

# ¿ Apr 11, 2023 20:46

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

the_steve posted:

Won't he just end up going to the other chud channel? ONN? OAN? Whatever the one is for people who think Fox is too left leaning?

Sure, it's not going to bring Fox down in a blaze of glory, but it isn't like Tucker has to go home and live off his "heir to a TV dinner dynasty" money.

Not sure he's going anywhere with outstanding litigation. Might just do a podcast for a year.

# ¿ Apr 24, 2023 17:19

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

If Trump is required to make a choice between ol' buddy Murdoch and a guy Murdoch personally fired, he'll go for the guy who can give him free time on television.

# ¿ Apr 25, 2023 14:55

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

They just codified the already announced plan. They were going to voluntarily end the pause on September 1st, but now they are codifying that the pause ends on September 1st.

I did not believe the administration would end the pause on any date, and would continue to kick the can down the road.

# ¿ May 29, 2023 17:44

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

Bar Ran Dun posted:

Hire adequate numbers of employees at good wages.

But what if one of those good waged workers has a kid that, because they have a parent giving them chance at a better life, bumps my kid out of their preferred college choice, huh? You ever think about the consequences for rich people?

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ¿ Sep 27, 2023 16:12

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

Skippy McPants posted:

So, just speaking theoretically here because I'm sure it's extremely unlikely, but what happens if the majority party is unable to elect a speaker? Are there any procedural fallbacks if they're literally unable to get their poo poo together for weeks or longer?

No House business gets done until they elect a Speaker of the House to conduct said business.

# ¿ Oct 12, 2023 01:24

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

zoux posted:

Yeah, many people on twitter noted the same. People don't know how stuff works so you can just lie to them and they'll believe it because of their priors. I'm sure Jim Jordan has similar expenditures, or would if anyone could stand to sit at a table with him for more than 15 minutes.

The GOP comms strategy is largely to just describe the way things are but in a scary or mocking voice so it seems uniquely bad instead of routine and ubiquitous.

Its going to rule if this works and it ruins dining out in DC for Republican representatives just like living in DC was ruined by iirc Santorum negatively campaigning against the guy he beat in a Republican Primary.

A bunch of millionaires having daily images of them bringing sack lunches and microwave meals on their trips to "the swamp".

# ¿ Oct 12, 2023 17:13

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

I'm not buying that napkin math; profit margins aren't a set-in-stone attribute that you can then do arithmetic at using the MSRP of a product. An individual item that is lost is not guaranteed to be sold at the price point, for one- Halloween Candy prices at October 30th is not the price on Nov 1st.

# ¿ Oct 19, 2023 18:23

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

Mister Fister posted:

The 1-3% profit margin is average for all goods sold. Obviously, some goods have higher margins and some goods have lower ones. The margin on any particular good is not really something that's relevant. Pretend i didn't say 'meat', and just said 'random goods'.

The only reason to pretend you said random goods is because you need to disregard a host of complicated variables to make a very simple napkin math claim a compelling and interesting argument.

Companies incorporate anti-theft measures on some items and not others; hire workers to wander and watch over and inventory some items and not others; put some items on sale because they sold the top half of the pallet at a high price level and now need to clear out the pallet to maks room for other items taking up space on the shelf and warehouse.

The entire exercise at this point is to make one assumption (expected profit is a universal law that all other math must bend towards) and then try to argue about the arithmatic and disregard any attempt to introduce other variables.

# ¿ Oct 19, 2023 18:44

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

"The Swamp" isn't a noun, its a nickname. Right wing fash have been using "uniparty" as the real word they oppose, and see any action that doesn't cause the other side to painfully howl to be aligned against them. They view themselves as an outsider force, and as such any compromise that lets both sides walk away with heads held high is seen as a ploy to gently caress the little guy.

HFC , and the chuds they represent, need to show people hurt and in pain because thats the only validation they believe in.

# ¿ Oct 20, 2023 17:39

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

smug n stuff posted:

In the republican conference meeting, they’ve held a secret-ballot vote as to whether Jordan should continue to be the speaker nominee. Apparently he’s lost that vote:

https://x.com/olivia_beavers/status/1715426818679881900?s=46

Who knows what’s next! Chaos continues to reign

e: Not even a majority of the majority party. New pack of idiots to lose next monday, then.

# ¿ Oct 20, 2023 19:07

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

Assistant Speaker of the House, or Assistant TO THE Speaker of the House?

A role that only existed since 2011 and only on the Democratic party side, I can't wait for me to hear young lanyard-laden stuffed shirts tell me how its a real and serious role to be respected while I dodge garbage that washed up on the global warming tidal flow in three decades.

# ¿ Oct 24, 2023 22:57

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

Make the Hawaii primary among the first in the nation, have the libertarians argue that actually a distant government that does not comprehend or care for local issues is good because it allows white men to go to resorts.

# ¿ Oct 25, 2023 18:13

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

The new wet-behind-the-ears monster giving the responsibilities of budgeting to the house comittee chairs creates an opportunity for the opposition wonks on a given committee to release specific qualms on budgets and tie them to specific names and faces, rather than the ineffable "Washington swamp process" that the Speaker somehow has no control over. Those committee chairs are attention-is-power assholes who won't turn down the fight, but there will be more opportunity for these dingbats to go mask-off in mistake.

# ¿ Oct 26, 2023 17:40

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

I dont think 8 straight years of Obama made Republicans go towards the middle (McCain and Romney presented themselves as statesmen rather than outsiders). Losing multiple elections energized the fringe anti-government movements to become the main base of the republican party, and the same people who hated losing to Obama now believe that it is impossible for them to lose elections.

If the process is universal, that losing elections makes parties similar / towards the electorate of the last election, then why did Trump- an anti-Obama in many ways- win? Why has the "anti-uniparty" political faction become ascendant, counter to the argument being made?

# ¿ Oct 27, 2023 16:22

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

Rigel posted:

Parties have often historically reacted to a disappointing loss by doubling down and assuming they weren't pure enough. Concluding that what the people need is to really see the (crazy, horrifying at the time to the middle) difference to win them back. Parties will eventually get tired of losing and do whatever they have to do to become more competitive.

The GOP had invested a lot of time and effort catering to their fringe to get them to keep voting every election, its going to take a lot of time wandering the political wilderness and getting their asses kicked before their base finally allows the party to do what they want. The longer it takes for the crazy right fringe to lose their grip on power within the GOP, the better for us.

What I believe:

Losing elections either Does or Does Not make a political party move in some way or another, depending on a multitude of factors that may or may not depend on achieving a streak of wins, and might depend on a landslide election or two, and might be a function of material circumstances outside of the control of individual voters or political party functionaries.

In short, I don't even think you're wrong, I think you're backsolving from the narrative you prefer to highlight the facts you need and elide the complicating variables.

# ¿ Oct 27, 2023 16:49

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

Sub Par posted:

The Daily (NYT podcast) today is about Robert Card and how he was able to commit these crimes while clearly posing a danger. I recommend a listen, it's a good and depressing overview of the situation. The moral of the story is that everyone seems to have done the "right thing" with the possible exception of the local Sherriff's office. They could have used Maine's "yellow flag" laws to take his guns, and did not even try.

Bird in a Blender posted:

This is very similar to what happened in the Aurora, IL shooting. Guy had bought guns legally, but later on it was discovered that he had a felony conviction in another state, so his firearm card (FOID in Illinois) was revoked. The state police said he needs to turn in his guns, but did zero follow up on it. He then used those guns to shoot up his old work place.

The laws that exist only serve as documentation that people around the eventual soft-target spree-killer were not ignorant or actively conspiring for the multiple murders. Its a EULA check box on an app of being an American in a time of being machine-gunned in a parking lot.

# ¿ Nov 2, 2023 18:58

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

Main Paineframe posted:

Skimming the polling history as a whole, rather than one specific poll, I see RealClearPolitics lists eight polls last month where Biden was in the lead, five where Trump was in the lead, and five where the two were essentially tied. Rather than getting caught up on one poll which could be an outlier, we should look at multiple polls to see the general trend.

I looked at the 538 poll list too, but it's completely loving bonkers so I don't think it's worthwhile. I don't know what the gently caress is wrong with pollsters' methodology this time around, but I do know that there's no loving way in hell third-parties are actually getting >18% of the vote. Hell, one of the polls on these shows RFK Jr. getting a whopping 22% of the vote, or RFK Jr. and West getting a combined 25%. It's just not happening.

I mean, the reason third parties don't get many votes when the elections actially occur is because of the billions of dollars and thousands upon thousands of hours spent campaigning for the top two candidates and their parties in the months to year before an election. The polls a year out from an election are inaccurate not because of some inherent mirage effect, but because of the effects of electioneering on the public.

Its better to presume that a poll this far out is setting the table for how and why a major effort has to occur to get anyone elected president, not least someone who has yet to engage with the campaign.

# ¿ Nov 6, 2023 15:22

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

The House plans to subpoena Hunter Biden and James Biden for non-public depositions in the impeachment inquiry this week.

The new Speaker also says they are likely to have a vote on impeachment "very soon."

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1721618618369118490

If the House has a non-public deposition and no one gets to hear the Representatives' questons and their answers, does it become a sound inquiry?

I posit that no, it'll just be a sentance buried in the second para for the news story about the eventual Biden impeachment- "this comes after the subpeona of"- and allowed to be laden with meaning completely detached from any facts.

# ¿ Nov 6, 2023 21:38

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

BUUNNI posted:

I don't think "teen books" are actually filled with vivd sex descriptions is what I'm saying.

Its a lot easier to ban books that don't exist for being absurdly distasteful and upsetting; the weirdos having to defend bans of things that voters know about is much more difficult, especially when those bans only serve to make a worse library.

# ¿ Nov 8, 2023 17:00

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

Nelson Mandingo posted:

After last night I have a very hard time believing those polls are accurate. A dem won in a NJ area Trump won by +35.

You really expect me to believe Trump is up +5?

I believe that Trump can be up +5 in a race that has not had a billion dollars spent advertizing how important it is to vote against Trump, 365 days out, even if a single district that has had a bunch of campaign work put into it got across the line in a district that voted for Trump in 2020 literally yesterday.

If Biden spends literally no money and no time on campaigning in the next 365 days he loses in 2024. He might gently caress up and lose anyway despite working really hard, if he acts like an idiot. Biden is not inherently guaranteed to win an election or votes- he will have to spend money and do work.

# ¿ Nov 8, 2023 21:53

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

SirFozzie posted:

And all it really does is harden opinion against their side. Like the "Just Stop Oil" idiots and throwing soup on paintings. To steal a line from Shakespeare, it's "sound and fury, signifying nothing". It allows people to feel good that they're "bringing attention to the issue", when all it really is is self-important dick-waggling

Right now, the news is filled with attacks on people for supporting Israel (even such humanitarian things as attacking someone at a prayer for the hostages whose fates are still unknown). This kind of performative bullshit only gets the yellers and their cause classed in with real anti-semites.

If it makes them feel good, sure. whatever, do whatever you want, but as to winning people to their cause? Not a loving chance, and they should be smart enough to know better.

(Personally, I think that the better play is to beg, borrow and steal any bit of airtime to show the atrocities. You gotta win hearts and minds if you want anything to change, and yelling at someone eating dinner isn't gonna do that)

Seeing as this evening of protest directly shifted our conversation here by learning that Senator Warren does not support a ceasefire and people learning the difference between ceasefire and humanitarian pause, it has already been effective at establishing the morality of their cause and the shaky underpinnings of the melts arranged against it.

# ¿ Nov 11, 2023 04:44

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

GlyphGryph posted:

It's actually worse than these numbers indicate, too, because the construction that is happening has shifted almost entirely to upper tier/luxury construction. Before the 2000s, it wasn't uncommon to see more than 30% of new home construction being various types of affordable starter home. Last I checked, that class of construction was in the low single digits, around 4%. Those are the kind of homes that drive prices down in the market, because without them being available people need to buy more expensive homes and everyone gets shifted up the scale.

Gyges posted:

Isn't a decent chunk of runaway housing costs the various corporations and management companies using software and apps to "inadvertently" collude and maximize profits?

That you can have a surplus of luxury homes that goes immediately into stock for AirBNB and robo-landlord estates is a function of the system. Young couples buying cost-effective homes to live and sell to new young couples as they climb the property ladder are not the core market.

# ¿ Nov 14, 2023 18:03

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

small butter posted:

It was a blowout. Democrats had the history of the "party in power losing seats in the midterm" going against them, and when you couple it with generational inflation, constant talk of recession, stock market making new lows in October, and fear mongering about crime (which worked in NY), Democrats should have been absolutely trounced. Instead, they lost the House by a couple of seats, gained legislatures and governorships and got +1 in the Senate.

Actually, one way we know the Republicans lost are the various meltdowns Charlie Kirk and others were having on election night.

I would recommend not using kayfabe performances by loud-mouthed maniacs as your barometer of success when material circumstances exist.

e: and your understanding of the circumstances may be different than mine, but having another term of "lets gently caress up the government and shut all this poo poo down" is not at all positive for my goals.

Gerund fucked around with this message at 16:48 on Nov 15, 2023

# ¿ Nov 15, 2023 16:46

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

zoux posted:

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1724940242744954967

Is Fox still using a high quality normie pollster or did they jettison them after 2020? Assuming high quality and not a rigged poll, this I think would give more credence to "the polling is fucky" as these don't comport with the election outcomes we've been seeing over the last 2 years. "Democrats are popular but Biden isn't" was one argument against that, but this poll shows that all democrats are performing equally as poor as Biden.

Every poll is a three variable problem

1- who answers
2- how you multiply the "who answers" to an expected voter turnout
3- what the answers are

A "High Quality" pollster a year out from an election is just guessing at who will Pokemon Go To The Polls at this stage, especially before the campaigns spend a billion dollars on finding issues that will drive voters to vote for a specific presidential candidate and hammering them twenty times a day across every single media platform.

# ¿ Nov 16, 2023 19:03

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# ¿ May 11, 2024 16:08

Gerund: Sep 12, 2007; He push a man

zoux posted:

Right but that poll says that ANY democratic candidate would lose if the election was held today. But Democrats continue to overperform in every single post-Dobbs election. Elections are real, polls are estimations, and those estimations aren't matching electoral outcomes and no one can figure out why. Before we squared that circle by saying, well, maybe it's just Biden has some unique problems and not the party, but this poll says the opposite.

I mean the polls for abortion and weed in Ohio a month before the election were 58.2% and 57.4% versus the election results of 56.6% and 57%; slightly wrong but not out to lunch.

Polls being inaccurate before a billion-dollar year-long electioneering campaign is not really a problem with the polls, its that the special election electioneering campaigns haven't been scaled up for the presidential elections yet.

# ¿ Nov 16, 2023 20:55

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USCE 2023: Please let them shove a camera up your butt

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