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Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

GlyphGryph posted:

This is a lot less contradictory when you recognize that the fully expanded statement is "Cut taxes for me".

I don't know why the Dems haven't bothered offering a plan that involves tax cuts for the majority of the population coupled with increased taxes on the wealthy so they could sell the whole thing as an important comprehensive tax reform under the label "Biden/Democrat Tax Cut", considering that seems to be a popular combination.

They do. It's just that the party never seems to be able to counter right wing narratives. Every Democratic attempt to make tax rates more equitable gets twisted as "TAX INCREASES FOR EVERYONE."

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Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
I apologize if this isn't the right thread, but are there any polls out there tracking the Wisconsin Supreme Court election? How worried should we be?

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Bird in a Blender posted:

There have been very few polls, the ones that exist show Protasiewicz (D) with a slight lead. She is way ahead in fundraising though, so that should help.

Now ask me how worried I am that Vallas is going to win in Chicago.

Yeah. Vallas is going to run away with it, right?

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
Any Wisconsin news or is it too soon to tell?

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Artonos posted:

The Wisconsin polls close at 8 central and we should get an initial surge of vote counts dropped then. Wisconsin doesn't allow counting absentee or early votes til election day.

Milwaukee and Madison are usually the later in the night places to report. Although we'll be able to infer some stuff from initial counts on smaller counties.

An interesting wrinkle is Dan Kelly beat out the judge from the Waukesha parade massacre case. She was very popular and won the vote by a decent margin in the Waukesha (WOW) area and then she lost by a ton everywhere else in the state. Will the favored candidate getting knocked out in the primary suppress the vote a bit? Who knows.

I'm wary of putting too much confidence in the primary vote also. The republican spending has been very concentrated in the last few weeks. I don't think any of the Uihlen dollars started coming in until March.

It sounds like a lot of people are stressing out over whether Milwaukee and Madison turnout are going to be high enough to overcome high turnout in GOP-favored areas. Heartburn fuel.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

There's bad weather there too, right?

It's hard to tell what's going on since there's no Jon Ralston-like pundit for Wisconsin as far as I can tell.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

metachronos posted:

As a WI resident, so do I.

Any suggestions on an account to follow? I’m going through election needle withdrawal.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
Ballots coming in from Chicago now.

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1643408224689823747

Wisconsin polls close at 9pm EST/8pm CST.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
https://twitter.com/Uncrewed/status/1643414874834235394

https://twitter.com/Uncrewed/status/1643417667922010120

Huh. This is better for Brandon than everyone expected...

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Velocity Raptor posted:

So my own dumb rear end can follow along, who are we rooting for in Chicago and WI?

Brandon is the more progressive mayor. Vallas is the police-approved centrist choice.

In Wisconsin, most people who are lurking these totally-not-dead forums will want Janet Protasiewicz to win. Daniel Kelly is the GOP choice and has worked with organizations to justify the case for overturning election results that the Republicans don't like.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
I don't know if the Wisconsin State Senate race is going to go for the Dems, though. How likely will impeachment be if the GOP candidate wins?

drat. It looks like a nailbiter.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...c&region=NavBar

It switched leads just when I was typing this out.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
Some of those WI ballot initiatives look like the kind of depressing stuff that always seems to win even though they're horrible in execution. Hopefully people don't suffer too much more because of them.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
The NY Times seems to be racheting back the percentage of votes counted for Sinykin. I can't tell if that's a good or bad sign.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
Knodl's back in the lead with 87% of the vote in according to the NY Times. He's ahead by 720 votes. I have no idea what this district is like and am counting on Twitter strangers I don't know whether hope is now gone.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
https://twitter.com/IPreferPi314/status/1643442184870596613

Is this true? I don't feel like looking it up.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Automata 10 Pack posted:

No, I think they need a supermajority in congress as well.

From what I could tell before running out of gas, a supermajority in both houses lets you override governor vetoes. I believe you only need a supermajority in the senate for an impeachment, but it's up for legal debate (for now) whether judges are impeachable under Wisconsin law.

EDIT:

Looks like Sinykin couldn't quite pull it off. That's hell of a Gerrymander the GOP has.
https://twitter.com/elium2/status/1643445452451241984
https://twitter.com/elium2/status/1643445682534072320

I don't know if this guy is super reliable, but it seems to make sense. Others seem to be confirming the same point.

https://twitter.com/NapervillePol/status/1643444798358003713

Eric Cantonese fucked around with this message at 03:55 on Apr 5, 2023

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Dr. Mantis Toboggan posted:

I am a random goon who lives in Milwaukee and I have come to the same conclusion from looking at the Milwaukee and Waukesha county clerk sites and comparing them to past election results. I looked up those two Milwaukee wards and they only contain industrial/commercial buildings. River Hills went roughly 700/500 Evers/Michels last year, and the places in Waukesha county are all very red.

It looks like it'll be recount territory. Is it worthwhile for Sinykin to pay for that recount?

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
I guess the story in Wisconsin is going to be all about potential impeachment now. I wonder if the GOP has enough political vulnerability (or if there's enough hesitancy within their faction on the current Supreme Court) not to do it.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
$35!!!!!

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Class3KillStorm posted:

In a way, wasn't that how Biden ended up winning last time, though? Sanders was way ahead on delegate count and everything in the early states, until Super Tuesday, when the more conservative Dems rallied around Biden and the number of delegates flooding his way ended up totally upending that race.

It's a theoretical way for DeSantis to win, but I still haven't heard any real rational reason why he's supposed to be a "better" choice than Trump would be, or why later states would rally around him if Trump already has the momentum of an early lead.

If Klobuchar or Buttigieg or Harris or even Warren managed to get some real momentum (and not just media hype) out of the early primaries, Biden would have just sputtered out.

Biden's late approach only looked like it worked out because the other "moderate" candidates kept cannibalizing themselves.

DeSantis does not have this dynamic running against Trump.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

nine-gear crow posted:

loving hell, are you people EVER going to run out of goddamn Kennedys? :mad:

No.



Robert Kennedy alone had 11 children.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

I AM GRANDO posted:

This is a strange poll question. Aren’t people supposed to vote for the candidate with the policies they like the best?

If elections were all about policies, then this world would probably be a lot better off. People don't work that way (and what you can blame for that is up to endless debate).

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Cpt. Mahatma Gandhi posted:

It should be Trump dipping his well done steak in ketchup.

Everybody has known about the well done steak and ketchup thing for years. If it didn't disgust people then (and it should have), it's not going to work now.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
Has Mike Judge been vocal about "woke" stuff? In the past, he seems to have gone out of his way to avoid saying anything particularly partisan. Liberals and conservatives can both pick bits of his stuff that suits their views and I'm sure he'd love to keep it that way.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

uninterrupted posted:

It's kinda wild that for all the focus liberals focus on trumps Clemson McDonalds banquet, they've never found a player that complained about it.

Ha. I have to say that I do love free McDonalds as well.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

In a surprise to nobody, McConnell says they will oppose any effort to replace Feinstein on the Judiciary Committee because Democrats just want to do so to "ram through their radical judges."

Is there anything he can do about that?

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Grater posted:

It says something, not sure what, but the fact that fox keeps canning “talent” at what appears to be top of their game (to their mouth breathing fans) somehow doesn’t faze anyone. I hear people talking about Don Lemon and carlson the same breath, talking about them as if they are completely identical. That one is “left” and the other is “right” means that they faced the exact same situation, circumstances and their departures mean the same thing and their dismissal will have the same impact (to the left is the insinuation).

Weird is all I’m saying.

If Don Lemon is a symbol of the left, then politics in the US is even more messed up than I thought.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Nonsense posted:

I think Biden likes having her around. She had to put herself into lovely tasks, also I'm sure he was happy Obama didn't drop him.

I don't think Biden was flailing as much as Harris has been with the VP role. If nothing else, I don't remember unhappy Biden gossip at the level of whatever is leaking out about Harris' camp's morale.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
McCarthy managed to get some proposed debt ceiling legislation past the House, but 4 GOP Reps voted against it.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/26/debt-ceiling-house-passes-gop-bill-mccarthy-tries-to-draw-biden-into-talks.html

I wonder how this will all end.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Mooseontheloose posted:

Didn't the new head of CNN say he wanted more balanced coverage?

Re: we need more Republicans to spew their bullshit.

https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/2022/8/26/23322761/cnn-john-malone-david-zaslav-chris-licht-brian-stelter-fox-peter-kafka-column

Like others have said, CNN’s owner wants to chase money by shifting rightward.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
Florida's on the verge of collapse?

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
Well, those all seem like someone else's problem and not DeSantis' problem.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
Did I miss this coming up? Anyway, I don't know if this deal that the Biden Administration managed to help put together is too little too late, but at least there's an agreement.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1660741267867705344

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Boris Galerkin posted:

Does the NYC subway close for the night? Because the Paris one does or did. I remember this very clearly because I was Very Drunk and could not use the metro to get to my hotel, and I tried hailing a taxi but people kept walking up the street ahead of me to hail a taxi first and this kept going on forever. We walked home that night and it was bad times the next morning.

The NYC subway operates 24/7, but trains start getting fewer and farther between late at night.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
Any news on the debt ceiling? Is Kevin McCarthy flying too close to the sun?

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Clarste posted:

Uh, even if you allocated the independents 30/70, D still wouldn't win so I'm not sure what your point is here.

The point is that Sinema is worthy of contempt because she will spoil the race for the Democrats and lead to another Republican senator in what should otherwise be a winnable state.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
I don't know if you'll ever have a left-leaning news network beyond whatever MSNBC is in America.

How do you attract advertising to a network that caters to a political demographic that less inclined to buy stuff?

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Morrow posted:

A few former Presidents attempted to go back to their old offices, but the only successful one was Cleveland. His vice president had died a year into his term and was never replaced.

Other fun details when looking at history: beyond Teddy vs Taft, Grant was almost nominated for a third (nonconsecutive) term in 1880. Hoover tried to get the Republican nomination again in 1936 and 1940. Martin Van Buren and Millard Fillmore both ran on third party tickets. Gerald Ford was considered for Reagan's VP in 1980. And John Tyler managed to have the worst post-presidential career by getting elected to the Confederate Congress, contrasting Trump's possible treason with Actual Treason.

Very trivial fun fact: John Tyler is the earliest president with a living grandchild.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harrison_Ruffin_Tyler

His brother died back in 2020. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZX8MOFhXm5U

Tyler was having kids until his 70s.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Ghost Leviathan posted:

Even when Democrats actually do decent things, they sure as gently caress don't want to advertise it, because then voters might start expecting them to do it more often.

There's some level of this, but with respect to things like Bail Reform in NY, it's also hard as hell to explain succinctly to the hordes of easily-scared suburban voters and I think a lot of the more centrist/conservative Dems probably would love to reverse it.

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Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

World Famous W posted:

i don't know if it's still in schoolyard or whatnot since im pushing forty, but i remember in my childhood a "game" called 'smear the *****' (it very much a slur in this case) which was just an excuse to kick the poo poo out of anyone suspected. my brother grew up in that same environment so it probably has something to do with it for him

I remember about 15 years ago or so it finally sunk in to me what "queer" was referring to.

The version played where I grew up was like an informal version of rugby.

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