mcmagic posted:

I don't love going old RB and old WR in the first two rounds. I think you're carrying a lot of injury risk in a lot of places. I don't think c-patt and russ are rosterable. you're better off grabbing lottery ticket RB's off waivers.

Silly Burrito posted:

Guys Ive been in a coma since 2017

Silly Burrito posted:

Was literally talking about that league today. That was fun as hell.

3 DONG HORSE posted:

The Old and the Onerous

pmchem posted:

has there ever been a season when the same team produced two RBs in the top 20 of fantasy scoring (non-PPR)?

I kind of wonder if ATL has a chance to do it this season

Drunk Nerds posted:

Bouta do my BML draft! 14 teams, most of which have been auctioning for 15+ years.

Shots of tequila to start, after every break, and for every procedural error. Note: This does not lead to fewer procedural errors.

Letsgo!!!!

Docjowles posted:

Gonna be annoyed if Hill is limited / sits and Waddle can’t benefit at all cause he’s in concussion protocol

Docjowles posted:

Ok I absolutely have to get off the Danny Dimes ride before it sinks my season. Potential options:

1) Say gently caress it and stream. The "best" options are like Goff/Howell/Stafford/Mac Jones level in this league, there's no Purdy or Cousins sitting on waivers

2) I could probably trade Terry McLaurin for Anthony Richardson. This would still leave me with Adams, Waddle, Addison, and <insert hot waiver guy> at WR (2 WR + flex 0.5 PPR league)

3) Trade for Cousins or Dak. But I know this guy and he is going to ask for like a WR1 for a stupid QB rotting on his bench. Maybe I could also talk him down to McLaurin?

...

42069) Ride or die with Dimes

Would you pull the trigger on McLaurin for Richardson to get out from under Daniel Jones, or is that just trading one wildly inconsistent maniac on a bad team for another? The deal wouldn't go through til next week at this point so Richardson should be over his concussion at least.

Floofy posted:

I have Carr as my QB2 in superflex, and the best on the waiver for replacement in Stafford. That’s great except that his bye is week 10 ( the same as Mahomes, my QB1). No one is biting on trades (i can try for fields, but not sure if that’s an upgrade), is it better to roll without a second QB is superflex until Carr figures his poo poo out? I’d assume with Kamara back things should look up a bit

abelwingnut posted:

why in the wide world of sports would you do that?

Quiet Feet posted:

What did you hit your head on?

Sataere posted:

Love this answer lol. Let me preface this by saying I still think you're crazy for doing this. But I also think Kelley is gonna have a top five week this week and did the exact same thing with Kelley and Aaron Jones.

abelwingnut posted:

even with henry being tennesseed, he still outscored kelley, 2 to 1.95.

Quiet Feet posted:

Raheem Mostert scored 1 rushing touchdown in week one. 2 in week two. 3 in week three. At this current rate, the only thing we need to ask ourselves is what is going to happen during Miami's bye week? Since it's week 10 of the NFL season, will he somehow still score 10 TDs, or will he have to wait until week 11 to score 10, thus breaking the matching TDs/weeks phenomenon? Or will he skip from 9 in week 9 to 11 in week 11?

In any case, using this model we can clearly see that he'll tie Ladainian Tomlinson's rushing touchdown record in week 7 and will surpass it in week 8. If my math is correct he should finish with between 143 and 171 TDs on the year.

Docjowles posted:

Everett has the problem of competition from Donald Parham, whereas Musgrave (or Schultz) really has the job to himself. Everett is also getting low value targets between the 20's whereas Parham seems to sub in in the red zone and catch TDs. I would rather have Musgrave's situation. And again, he arguably should have 2 TDs already. If he did people would be falling over themselves to add him.

I'm not really interested in Taysom's bullshit tbh. Maybe any given week will be the one the Saints feel like giving him 10 carries and 5 pass attempts But when they don't feel frisky he's a zero, he gets like 1 target a game as a "tight end"

Drunk Nerds posted:

Who cares? I'm not trying to win 4th place in my leagues, I'm trying to win it all. Getting an explosive rookie on the potential second coming of the Greatest Show on Turf wins leagues. Correctly Min/Maxing my FAB 3 weeks into the season at the risk of missing out on a potential top RB wins 4th place.

Dango Bango posted:

Is it too galaxy-brained to grab Roschon Johnson off waivers (dropping Allgeier) to flex over one of Olave, Pickens, Atwell?

I feel like it's a boom-or-bust play, don't really trust Chicago's OL, and Herbert is getting more touches. At the same time though, if Denver allows rushing like it did last week...

FAT32 SHAMER posted:

I’ve been debating waddle over zay flowers since yesterday lol

I read that buffalo’s defense has kept WRs to only 21pts per game, so I’m leaning Flowers over waddle

quote:

Fantasypros Rankings for Week 4

Docjowles posted:

I appreciate that your sit/start choices are at least consistently insane No half measures

Vargo posted:

Can I interest you in Blue Shell League, where sometimes it is in your best interest to lose or score ridiculously low or bench your studs?

I think you'd be a natural.

tarbrush posted:

I could understand if Collins was playing a soft D, but that's Pittsburgh man

abelwingnut posted:

you do not sit anyone who is possibly playing in the shootout of the season. even backups.

you have to, have to, have to start waddle over collins.

DeadMansSuspenders posted:

Agreed. Play everyone in that game.

quote:

Benched Waddle for Nico for +27 and the W

Docjowles posted:

I love everything about what you are doing

quote:

WR Matchups

Unpressured rate is % where the opposing QB was not hurried, hit, or sacked. Think of it as a proxy for quality pass attempt - you'd much rather start WRs against DEN than TEN even though enemy fantasy WR points are similar

RB Matchups

Color gradient is Tackle For Loss% - Fantasy RBs are scoring similarly against CLE and PHI but the data shows CLE are better at stuffing RBs behind the line while teams have been abandoning the run against PHI

pmchem posted:

fun post. what’s your data source if someone wanted to try similar analysis?

Docjowles posted:

I actually have Achane and Puka lol so that’s interesting But giving up Achane is also terrifying with how he’s playing. I’m not sure it’s a fluke, he looks awesome.

mega dy posted:

Is Tee Higgins going to have value going forward? Got offered him in a trade.

quote:

Consensus W5 Rankings

AnacondaHL posted:

well you see as one who falls for the gambler's fallacy, week 2 was a boom for Nico, week 3 was a bust, week 4 was a boom, so week 5 will be a bust, this game is very easy folks

Dango Bango posted:

Are you the against the wind guy? Because this is some galaxy-brained poo poo.

e: lol missed the rest of the new posts

RCarr posted:

I mean you have to play the odds. What’s more likely to happen, a guy who’s been playing great to have a good game? Or a team who’s O-line has been letting 2 guys run through the line untouched constantly with a quarterback who can’t throw the ball breaking out and specifically to one receiver?

Robinson’s “breakout” would be what Collins is averaging each game at best

Matt Zerella posted:

RCarr posted:

C’mon man

mcmagic posted:

What possible reason is there to be bullish on the Giants' passing game?

Matt Zerella posted:

Wandale is absolutely a bench stash or flex but you don't start him over Nico Collins lmbo

kiimo posted:

Nico Collins is #2 in all wide receivers in 20+ pass plays but sure bench him

Matt Zerella posted:

Idk if you saw my posts but I lost SunGod and swapped in Wandale and rode with you. Didn't work out great but he outscored Sanders so it was the right move.

Poque posted:

I'm probably just going to start Howell over Dak at this point. Dak is garbage.

Riding with Wan'Dale was the right move given my team unless I was going to start a second TE (Schultz) at flex (I was not going to do this)

Sataere posted:

It really is fascinating. As a collective, we make assumption on the season and are like 75% wrong, yet still act like we know what we are doing.

quote:

Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:

Fight Club Sandwich posted:

hello i will be playing Trenton Irwin over Marquise Brown this week 6 of the NFL season. If Higgins plays I may swap out Irwin for Boyd or I might diamonds hands it, tbd

Gobias Ind. posted:

That's the point though. He's trying to address the phenomenon of a FA pickup or trade target being labeled as a "league winner". Someone that can put your team over the top. You obviously likely need to hit on your first couple picks. Nobody is calling Tyreek a league winner in that sense because he was a consensus first rounder and the kind of foundation you need on a team for your mid-season pickups to matter.

SouthShoreSamurai posted:

I love these so much. Keep doing them!

saintonan posted:

I think it's a valuable chart to see who the late bloomers are this season (to be super clear, I really like the chart), but maybe "league winner" isn't the right term then. More people are going to win leagues because they drafted Reek and Diggs instead of JJ and Chubb than because they drafted Allen or Achane later.

ElectricRelaxation posted:

This is really cool. Can I ask how many expert rankings you used and where they're from? I'm curious if any sources seemed consistently better than the others, and also how accurate the mode for each range was. Like did one dude just nail Etienne at 4 and everyone else had him as a low end RB1, or were most people having him as a top 5 RB and just a couple guys placed him at 10; or maybe without that one dude putting Gibbs that low, his range was all in the top 20. Thanks!

Judgy Fucker posted:

Contrived analogy I'll probably get ribbed for, but...

It really is like playing Magic: the Gathering (or any other card game). There's absolutely skill tests involved: building your deck, sideboarding between matches, piloting your deck well. Lots of point where a player's ability helps them win. But sometimes 8 of the top 10 cards in your deck are lands and you just lose no matter what you do, it was just destined to happen. Fantasy feels a lot that way: drafting is a skill test, knowing who to roster and who to start is a skill test, but sometimes injuries or bad QBs or whatever happens and you just eat poo poo.