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May I also suggest that any gloating must include a link to the post saying when you bought or sold the stock? 
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Jan 28, 2010 03:52
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KernelSlanders posted:Yahoo Plans To Spin Off Its Alibaba Stake, Tax Free, Into A New Company I'm not sure if it was true yesterday, but it was true for a long time that if you took a look at how much YHOO's stake in BABA was worth, that number was higher than the enterprise value of YHOO. In other words, YHOO the company was worth LESS, somehow, than it's stake in BABA. By spinning off the BABA part, remaining shareholders are going to keep the YHOO part, and that YHOO part will trade at a non-negative number. Voila, shareholder value is created.
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Jan 27, 2015 23:56
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Yeah generally something like this will go onto the pink sheets if there's enough volume to support it. If the company liquidates (I know nothing about the one you're talking about) the shares will be canceled and, hey, at least you get some capital losses to put on your taxes.
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Jan 28, 2015 00:37
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Why not just go long YHOO short BABA at some appropriate ratio? Cost to borrow too high or something?
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Jan 29, 2015 06:53
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nebby posted:People like me were loading up on AAPL and singing its praises when it was $400 and valued at a <8 EV/EBIT, iirc it was in the cheapest 5% of the market on that valuation metric (seriously.) It was transparently oversold, probably easiest trade we'll ever see. I could not agree more. Possibly the slam dunk trade of the decade.
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Feb 5, 2015 19:42
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Jack posted:I think these idiot central bankers have lost control of the 'price stability' part of their mandate. Judging by the rest of your post I don't think you understand what the phrase means.
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Feb 7, 2015 01:02
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Well, would you have sold after a month if you were sitting on a 12% loss?
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Feb 10, 2015 21:21
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Nice run on KING, Arkane. Take a bow!Leperflesh posted:e. for example the fact that it only runs on apple products makes me strongly suspect it's specifically targeting people who have enough money to buy "premium" (luxury-branded) products and who have a reputation for excessively fanatic brand loyalty, but who tend not to be sophisticated "power-users" and also tend not to be the sort of discount-seekers who prefer a cheaper phone with a less well-polished interface. It's not really fair to characterize all apple phone users who don't know much about the stock market but want to dabble their toes in it "hipsters," but it's the negative stereotype that springs to my mind and it's one of the reasons I haven't given robinhood a serious look at all. Nah it's just that pretty much every app comes to iOS first. I'm sure people's order flow and tolerance for poor execution is equally sought from the Android side...
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Feb 13, 2015 01:21
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Arkane posted:I'm looking at options in a light volume stock, HOS, and the latest expiry right now is in September. Anyone have an educated guess as to when I can expect to see January expirations available? I rarely find those worthwhile--you usually get killed on the bid/ask spreads.
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Feb 14, 2015 19:53
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Arkane posted:I think even buying at the ask could be positive EV....still mulling over this one. I hear you. When something like this comes up and I do want to go for it, I try to structure the position such that I am okay with holding it until expiration. That way I minimize getting whacked on the spreads twice. I'd be curious though, how comfortable are you with those book value figures? I have to imagine the market for offshore equipment is pretty terrible right now.
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Feb 15, 2015 21:40
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RG, were you in touch with the people over at the contrarian investor boards? I was on GTAT and lost a few bucks, but some of those people got absolutely annihilated. Good luck out there.
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Feb 20, 2015 02:05
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Something is missing there. Can you post the exact trades?
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Feb 21, 2015 18:41
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Actually, at least one of your questions has an easy answer. The calls you wrote were exercised by the buyers because of the merger. An option to buy a stock that no longer exists is, as you'd expect, worthless, so the call buyers exercised the calls to buy the stock to tender it for the 17.75 + contingent rights. Why were your short shares bought-in? Same reason. The people who are long the shares have to control them free and clear to tender them.
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Feb 21, 2015 18:45
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All those ITM puts you wrote: they weren't exercised against you? They weren't cash settled upon the merger? I think this trade will end up looking worse shortly. Agronox fucked around with this message at 21:20 on Feb 21, 2015 |
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Feb 21, 2015 21:16
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Cash settled at what price? (This is interesting. The market generally doesn't leave free money on the ground, that's why I'm so suspicious.)
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Feb 21, 2015 22:06
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Now, does that mean you can file Dutch taxes for some of that money back? I don't know, but if not, that actually makes this a money-loser, right? These merger arb trades can be really tricky sometimes.
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Feb 21, 2015 23:01
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I am glad it worked out for you! Sounds like it could've been worse. That 18.60 kind of makes sense. It looks like a share of RNA got cashed out to $17.75 plus a contingent right that could be worth up to $4; so maybe the market was valuing that right at $0.85.
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Feb 22, 2015 00:00
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Well, when a ten year Treasury is yielding less than 2%, SPY at an earnings yield of over 5% doesn't look too bad. But this year probably isn't going to be like years previous, where you could throw darts, buy whatever they landed on, and make money.
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Feb 26, 2015 17:29
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ohgodwhat posted:
This is a beautiful post and you are doing God's work.
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Feb 27, 2015 06:47
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Arkane posted:Anyone have a good reason why I shouldn't buy some long-term puts and sit on them? They're pretty expensive, and any litigation is likely to resolve after the longest of the LEAPs expire. That would be my counter-argument. I think you're right to be bearish though.
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Mar 2, 2015 21:38
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Maybe do verticals but the spreads might eat you alive there...
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Mar 2, 2015 21:43
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Arkane posted:People aren't going to hold their dicks waiting for the litigation to finish. The writing is going to be on the wall one way or another. I think this could easily be sub-20 after 2Q earnings report. It aired on the first day of the 2nd quarter. So I'd be looking at August. And yeah I think a put spread would be what I would aim for. Well, if you do it, let us know... I'll be rooting for you. Too chickenshit to make the trade myself.
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Mar 2, 2015 23:55
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Lumber Liquidators up big today. Did anyone actually play it or were you, like me, exclusively a spectator?
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Mar 12, 2015 17:33
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Do long ellipses indicate pausing for prayer?
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Mar 12, 2015 21:15
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Baddog posted:Anecdotally, Intel sounds like its become a bit of a hellhole. Middle managers who can't get poo poo done, everything is way behind schedule and nothing getting out the door. Everyone working weekends and late hours but just churning. I mean thats not unusual for old large companies who have acquired too many incompetent managers over the years, whose only skill is survival, but still.... Their near monopoly kind of ensures they aren't going anywhere for awhile, but I wouldn't expect it to be outperforming the market anytime soon either. Their facilities are still second to none, though, no? I actually haven't been following this company too much anymore--I have a chunk of it in my IRA and forgot about it--but aren't they still one of only a small handful of firms that can produce the smallest chips? I wonder if they might ever get to the point where they have to do contract manufacturing like other firms do with the ARM chips.
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Mar 14, 2015 00:36
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Well, posters ITT generally don't turn into crickets when they're winning, so... On the other hand, coal... is the future!
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Mar 17, 2015 15:58
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I had been waiting for a pullback to buy NTDOY 
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Mar 17, 2015 16:21
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There's still a very real bankruptcy risk with SDRL. All those new rigs were paid for from debt, and they're one of the more levered players in the business.
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Mar 21, 2015 14:06
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RichardGamingo posted:GTATQ rallying. They're about to get DIP financing. I don't like the long term view for equity only because the management is loving bogus...... but I think its going to rally significantly from where its at. DIP financing hasn't hit the mainstream news and it still took a 20% bump up on Friday. But the end result will be: equity class wiped out, shares canceled at zero. I guess at this point when you're down 90+% it might be fun gambling, but realize that you're essentially trying to time when it's best to pass a lit stick of dynamite to the next guy.
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Mar 23, 2015 03:32
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TBH if you don't trade frequently and don't need advanced features I'd stick with tradeking. I have accounts both there and at IB but the only real reason I stick with IB is portfolio margin. I'm not doing anything more complicated than multi-leg options orders and TK has a more intuitive platform in my opinion.
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Mar 23, 2015 19:48
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Why are people not posting Goldman level research notes on the ten dollar comedy forum. I don't get it.
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Apr 10, 2015 05:49
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Arkane posted:if there is any justice in the world, the FTC will shut down Herbalife's distribution model and the whole sector will crash There won't be justice in the world. Or, to put it another way, HLF is one of the biggest but it is by no means one of the worst. They'll get some wrist slaps and go on their scammy way. In other news, I took advantage of this nice pre-earnings run up to write some covered calls against my irrationally large AAPL position. Anyone else doing anything in those shares right now?
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Apr 23, 2015 20:55
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There was also a particularly negative note on SDRL a few days ago, predicting further asset write downs in the industry and suggesting that the company might need to get waivers on its debt covenants. From my disinterested eye it looks like consolidation and scrapping of older ships isn't happening fast enough industry-wide. If oil rises soon it'll bail everyone out but otherwise there's going to be more pain over the next year or two.
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Apr 28, 2015 17:41
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Torpor posted:Edit: also who is the asshat that made a fund called the markit ishares iboxx $$$$. If I remember this right, that ridiculous name is the result of a bunch of mergers. First there was iBoxx, I think it was bought by Lehman's ishares, which became a part of Barclays, and who knows how Markit ended up with it.
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May 8, 2015 15:40
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Baddog posted:God bless america. Are you also surprised at how many people have absolutely no savings? Can we not do frugality bragging? Add all that poo poo up and it amounts to less than two bar nights, one football game, or all sorts of other poo poo I'm sure everyone here spends money on at one point or another.
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May 8, 2015 19:38
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Speaking as a veteran of Longtop--but also Harbin Electric--sometimes it's just better to make your money without having to deal with fraud, regardless of whether you want to short it...
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May 14, 2015 19:29
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Or, if you're worried and there's enough options volume that you don't get destroyed on the spreads, look into putting on a zero cost collar.
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May 18, 2015 20:39
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The problem with KORS is one that ratios won't show you: in their efforts to pump earnings they are doing significant damage to their brand. It won't be long before you'll find their stuff at Kmart. I wouldn't want to be long OR short it.
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May 27, 2015 17:24
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SKELETONS posted:HLF going to $200 http://brontecapital.blogspot.com.au/2015/06/herbalife-very-long-post.html?spref=tw :bandwagon" Yeah, he lays out an interesting case. Hempton has been a HLF bull for over a year now, and one would've done well to follow him on it, but it still feels like there is easier money to be made elsewhere. Well maybe not lately.
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Jun 11, 2015 14:26
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| # ¿ Apr 30, 2024 18:46 |
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Citron just published an AMBA piece.
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Jun 19, 2015 17:51
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