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Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING
I'm glad reading that last season was bad, because I missed it (got a bad vibe from the cast and I don't like the Blood vs. Water concept).
This season seems great so far, although I haven't really identified anyone to root for.
I think the winner will come from White Collar or No Collar. I haven't gotten a strong read on any of the women in Blue Collar, other than two of them hate Dan, with one being HYPER PARANOID about him (I think Sierra?), and Dan's got ...issues, Rod is Bargain Basement Tony, and MIKE IS VERY LOUD AND SHOUTY AND WILL BE THE NEXT BOOT IF BLUE COLLAR DOESN'T WIN IMMUNITY!
At the moment, I'm thinking Jenn, Tyler, or Carolyn could win. Carolyn's kind of abrasive, but finding the HII, using it to pull Tyler in, and ousting So was pretty impressive. Dunno if she can keep it up, but Joaquin's probably next to go if they lose an immunity challenge before the shuffle.
I liked Jenn a lot more in the first episode, and she probably has a lot of culpability in the Nina situation, but at the same time, people with thin skins shouldn't be playing Survivor, and Nina reacted to the situation by making herself a giant target. And Nina's idiocy leading to Will axing Vince is some pretty strong proof that Nina kind of doesn't belong in the game, and will probably be out sooner than later.
thinking about it, the next episode probably won't be super-surprising, as there are clear boots-in-the-making on each tribe, with no way to salvage in sight. I hope I'm wrong, because I kind of like MIKE THE SCORPION EATER.

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Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

Fenris13 posted:

After reading some of his exit interview stuff, my opinion on him has flipped, he was getting a golden edit compared to how terrible it sounds like he really was out there. But my main point still stands, with him gone this week that tribe is going to be really loving boring going forward, and the blue collar tribe already bores the poo poo out of me. A bad week for the white collars, and this seasons will be well on its way to most boring season in a long time, baring some odd tribal swap magic.

It's absurd to say this two episodes in. Generally a season being bad doesn't become readily apparent until 3-4 episodes in. And we've already got some interesting characters. Blue collar seems boring, yes, but No Collar has Jenn and Will, who are pretty cool, and Joe who is boring but likable, and Hali, who has Eliza-like reaction shots. And White Collar seems to have most of the seriously dangerous players clustered in it, minus Joaquin.
The problem is mostly that Blue Collar hasn't gone to tribal council yet. If they go next episode, we'll get more insight into the tribe's internal dynamics. I still don't really know the three women as anything other than Tattoo Chick, Unreasonably Paranoid About Dan Girl, and An Invisible Kelly.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING
I kinda knew going in it was probably going to be Nina, so there was a distinct lack of suspense after the challenge ended.
One thing I'll definitely credit this episode for, it DID shed some light on the blue collar tribe's internal dynamics in some entertaining ways.
Rodney hates Mike and Dan, but is pretending to tolerate Dan for ~strategic reasons~
Mike now hates Lindsay for insulting his religion
Lindsay hates Mike, still has contempt for Dan
Kelly and Sierra are both smart women who know better than to step in the poo poo. Also I am reminded Sierra is very, very tall, and Kelly is a state trooper.
Interestingly, due to the volatility of three of the tribe members (Mike, Lindsay, Rodney), there doesn't seem to really be a majority alliance. I kinda think, too, if there was a defined one, we would have seen it. Rodney claimed early he'd align himself with the three women, but how much evidence of that have we actually seen?

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

Tide posted:

I think she's the ones with tats on her face that sits out of challenges yelling at everyone in a really annoying, raspy voice

No, she's the short, older woman who is a state trooper. Lindsay is the tatooed one, and Sierra is the giant who says nothing, just sits in the background and makes weird faces.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

Binary Logic posted:

That describes every Asian game show.


There are a lot of players who aren't going to win. Really there are currently only 2 on each tribe who could potentially win.
Which ones? I have three from White Collar, but that really can't be right.
Tyler, Max, Carolyn, Mike, Kelly, Joe, Hali

I know Kelly's a weird pick given she was almost invisible until now. But if we're picking at least two from each tribe, she's the distant #2 behind Mike.

Could get to the end, but will not win: Shirin, Dan, Sierra

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

Fast Luck posted:

Anyone hear the story that there is gonna be an all-stars season coming up? S32 maybe.

Yeah, I believe it. It makes sense. They wanted to build up enough of a potential lineup before doing another one, but I think now that's probably been accomplished, even if nobody from season 31 sticks out. Hell, it seems entirely probable there might be four returnees from Cagayan. Really hoping there's nobody there who's played more than once before, so the playing field is somewhat more even.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING
I think an all-winners season is still a ways off, but will happen if they can coordinate it with everyone's schedules. It'd be fascinating, but it might be deeply influenced by everyone's prior interactions.

Predicted lineup:
Boston Rob
Tony
Yul
JT
Tom
Cochran if they can get him/Aras
Earl
Hatch if they can get him/Tyson/male winner of 30/31/32

Denise
Kim
Sandra
Natalie A.
Parvati
Danni
Jenna
Sophie/Natalie W./a female winner of 30/31/32?

will not be in it: Fabio, Vecepia, Bob, Tina, Brian, Amber, Todd, Chris

a couple years ago would have been too early for it, but it's almost doable now. I'm hoping for at least one more great female winner before, though.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING
That was beautiful. And surprising, because I though it'd be Shirin. But I never really warmed up to Max, although I never hated him. Can't believe I ever thought he was a contender, wow. And Shirin is SO SCREWED. It's hilarious also because Carolyn and Jenn both also deeply love Survivor, but they're not gigantic spergs about it.
Unfortunately the next boots will be really predictable. Probably. If Blue loses it'll be Joaquin or Tyler (Joe is super-likable, least likely to be booted), or maybe Rodney if Sierra can form Joe/Joaquin/Tyler into a coalition. Red will be Shirin and then Will.
anyway, great set of episodes, although I'm sure now it was for scheduling reasons because episode 4 was fine.
And I've finally found people to root for! Go Mike and Kelly! :neckbeard:

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

Rarity posted:

Nah, Kelly should be the one gone next week. Shirin's not got any allies left so she can be reeled back in but there's no way you risk letting Kelly get back to the Blue Collars at the merge.

If they lose the next immunity challenge, though, they might be forced to vote out Will or Shirin first just to try to forestall a further downward slide. Also, this early in the game people are still in part voting based on disgust. I don't believe Shirin has any control over the aspects of her personality that her new tribemates hate, and beyond that, I don't think she'll take Max's boot with much grace.
Also the editing has emphasized how bad she and Will are at challenges.


xcore posted:

Super predictable!

You just named half the tribe.

Thinking more about it, I was wrong, the bootlist isn't predictable. Because nobody is safe in the red tribe. Blue tribe, we don't even know if they'll go to tribal council or if the conflicts being set up will come back up at merge. But if they do, it's hard to tell who goes. Mike and Dan are safe, as Rodney's the lightningrod if Sierra organizes a successful coup, and then Mike could create a new alliance that shuts Sierra out (I have some measure of faith in him, and besides he wouldn't be too pissed because he never liked Rodney).

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

STAC Goat posted:

As much as I dislike Max and think him a master douchelord I actually would be totally fine seeing him back in a Fans vs Favorites season.

I wouldn't be. Isn't the point of Fans vs. Favorites to include players that were actual fan favorites? Max's story was entertaining, but being fifth out entirely on your own incompetence does not warrant a return slot better given to an actually good player. Besides it might take away a spot from say, Carolyn or Jenn.

xcore posted:

Surely Max is one of the biggest disappointments in the shows history? The ratio of potential to performance is massive.

Anyone a little sad about the show casting so many overtly stupid people? Yeah, it makes for some great TV moments, but the strategy and nuance to the game is completely ruined. It's like they are just going out to cast an entire season of Coach Wades

eh, there aren't that many stupid people in this cast, and most of the dumbasses are already gone. Other than Rodney. Dan and Shirin could be called dumb, but I think it's more accurate to describe them as socially incompetent. I'm not sure what you're talking about, unless it's generally and not specifically referring to this season.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING
I think edgic is real, but most people are remarkably bad at reading it because the type of person that does it obsessively is pedantic and more than likely on the autism spectrum.
There are some things you can definitely tell from reading the editing. Not definite placement, necessarily, but vote-offs are usually set up at least an episode in advance. Vince's was, Nina's was, Lindsey's was, Max's had been well set up early on.
Or, something really, really interesting, like the editors manipulating challenge footage to make it appear as if Sierra won a challenge for Blue Collar rather than Rodney, which was discovered when the Previously On seemed to show that Rodney was actually the one that won it. That bizarre manipulation is likely an indication Rodney is not only not winning, but not going that far. If he were doing better, there is no way the editors would have done that, right? In a similar instance, episode 2 started unusually, with no glimpse of the aftermath of White Collar's voting out So. Maybe there wasn't anything interesting there, but there could be some meaning. It would have provided more development for White Collar, and in particular for Joaquin. That's a critical piece of why a lot of the edgic people rule out any White Collar for the win.
I wish the edgic people would all agree the concept of a "winner's edit" has lost most of its meaning. Tony is probably the definitive proof of that. Many of those people, reading the traditional signs for a winner's edit decided Woo was going to win. At the end they realized they'd been bamboozled by the editors.
What we can probably do at this point is rule out people as winners, although we can't rule out that some of those non-winners make it to FTC. I think it's clear Rodney's not winning, Dan's not winning, Will's not winning (I think the narrative's setting him up for a medevac), Shirin's not winning, Carolyn is sadly not winning, Sierra's not winning, Tyler's not winning, Joaquin's not winning. That leaves Joe, Jenn, Hali, Kelly, and Mike. God would I love that group of five to team up and run the game.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

Lone Goat posted:

Max is such a fuckin ham that him getting stung on purpose is within the realm of possibility.

Someone (here? on RHAP?) nailed it when they said that Max was out there trying to emulate all his favourite survivors that he never got around to playing his own game until it was too late.

To all these people that like Mike: What do you actually like about him? Are you talking about liking him as a personality, or liking his position in the game?

The scorpion-eating was the best moment from the premiere, for one. And then the shouting match between him and his tribe actually ended up in Rodney and Lindsey looking meaner than him. And then both episodes four and five showed him to have some strategic depth and awareness.
Also, against so many people playing for the camera, Mike seems more real.
Last, yeah I love his position in the game, too. I believe the editing's set him up for the long haul.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING
Hot drat, he's the worst. I never want to see him on the show again. Anybody other than himself and the people that don't want to hurt his feelings (Cochran, the Know-it-alls, some of the dumber people on Reddit) would give him a hard fail. You don't play a Cult Leader game with only one follower.
He doesn't respect the game as much as people like Carolyn and Jenn, who love the game but don't trumpet their love to the rooftops or rant obsessively about astrology signs of the winners and the game dynamics of One World. They played the game, he went and geeked out the entire time.
It'd be funny, though, if Shirin actually took his boot to heart, and turned her game around. Dunno if she was self aware enough to do that.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING
Well, Genre Bear was pretty gross.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING
That was wonderful. Wish it'd been Rodney, but that wasn't going to happen. Not yet. Rodney still has further humiliations to endure.
That has to be the all time greatest challenge throw in survivor history. Poor Kelly. Some people are just not that good at quick memorization. :smith:
Well, it isn't the greatest attempt to throw a challenge. Best successful throw, but I remember at least two attempts where the other tribe was so awful, the tribe that wanted to throw won anyway. I was wondering if this was going to be another. :laugh:

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING
I wonder if Sierra will realize her power next episode, and organize a vote against either Rodney or Dan. Hopefully Dan, because I think Rodney has more comedic potential.
From a pure entertainment perspective, I'm rooting for either a Dan or a Tyler boot. Dan is a jackass and a ham, and Tyler's boring as hell (and it'd be really funny given the number of people predicting him to win).
Part of the exciting thing is that there's no way of knowing who's coming out on top next episode. Smart money is PROBABLY on the No Collars given they're a pretty strong 4 (though Will has been set up as a potential betrayer, FWIW), but the balance of power rests with who the remaining White Collars side with. Odds are good Tyler and Carolyn will work together, but will they move with Shirin? Will people start trying to be nice to Shirin to secure her vote?

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING
I'm unreasonably excited for tomorrow's episode. It's basically the linchpin of the season, and will determine where the chips fall going forward. Unless things go really cut and dry, it should be pretty chaotic.
My hopes:
Love Kelly, but her leaving would make for some good drama.
Tyler is boring, and I'm sick of people asserting he's a winner threat (he isn't), so I'd love him to go now somehow
Rodney lasts to near the end, because he's now my ironic favorite. Can't see him making FTC because I can't imagine people putting up with him long enough. Although that would be a DREAM, especially if Sierra's in the jury.
Dan in the F3/F2, so we can all witness one of the worst FTC performances ever
Will somehow winning an individual immunity
A woman winning (hopefully Jenn or Carolyn, but Shirin winning would be an incredible story, and I don't dislike Hali, Sierra, or Kelly)

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

xcore posted:

You think Dan would perform worse in a FTC than Rodney?


Surely he could win one of those "shoot a slingshot at pots" or "answer trivia and chop an opponents rope" challenges. Although, they would probably be reward challenges yeah?

Huh. That's tough. But Rodney's FTC would be merely the same idiotic machismo. Dan, I think, has it within him to pull "your mother's a whore" moments with the entire jury.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING
Jenn's great. Even if she goes next week, she's legendary. But I don't think she will. Either Rodney will do something stupid, or Joe will lose immunity and get got.
Kinda wish things had scrambled a bit more, but I understand why they didn't. And it also makes sense that Carolyn and Tyler went with the blues, because Tyler's observed their dysfunction firsthand, and Carolyn knows Rodney's ready to backstab the blues when push comes to shove.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

ColdBlooded posted:

No Laura Alexander; list sucks.

Still, this is a stupid idea. If you want to do an all star season, just pick a bunch of people and off you go. Just don't make another horrible season with half returnees and half new people.

Uh, it's going to be all returnees, so that's not a worry. And I would wager CBS/Probst/whoever the hell makes these decisions has at least a few people picked out who will make it in regardless of the vote. I'm sure they're aware of the recency effect. Honestly, I like it, though I'm worried about how it will be implemented. Still, look at the random people brought back for BvW and Caramoan. Some of them were fan favorites, some of them really weren't. This way, the audience, and especially the fans, kinda get something they may have wanted all along, the chance to shape an All-Star cast.
Of the five unknown spots, my fingers are crossed for Erinn (Tocantins), Marty (Nicaragua), and Matty (Gabon). Oh, wait, and Burton (Pearl Islands) and Darrah (Pearl Islands) who is boring, sure, but very attractive and weirdly incredible at challenges.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING
Hence why Season 31 will be awesome. First all-returnee season since HvV!
It is kind of weird, though, that the season aired as 31 will actually be filmed AFTER the season which will be aired as 32.
So S31 will probably be called "Second Chances" and S32 will be called "Cambodia".

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

Rick posted:

I kind of have a bad feeling they're going to string us along all season with the "Rodeny flipping on Mike" thing and then they're going to end up being apart of a final three together.

Nah. They emphasized Rodney's conflict with Mike early on, so I don't think it'll take until FTC to resolve. Plus the bizarro alliance Rodney made got significant emphasis, despite not playing much of a role in anything besides Will's vote. I think what'll happen depends on who wins immunity next week. If it's Joe, I think Rodney will take the opportunity to make his BIG MOVE. If it's not Joe, Joe goes unless he finds the idol and bounces another member of the rival alliance (which would be hilarious).
The issue for Caroline and Tyler is definitely that there are more cracks in the blue alliance than the red, so that's where they'll be inclined to side unless there's a big change in tribal dynamics. Once one of the JoJeli is voted off, then they might be interested, but not before. And Shirin is a major sticking point. Tyler and Caroline are smart, but it's really challenging for people to put aside their differences with people they hate for the sake of a strategic advantage, especially when they're exhausted, hungry, and uncomfortable.
Lots of people are high on Hali for some reason, but I think she'll go down soon.

Also, I just realized Jenn has had a whopping NINE votes put on her so far. If she's voted out at the next tribal council, her vote total will probably be 16, just shy of the record held jointly by Ozzy and Phillip. If an idol gets played and she stays, but doesn't get to FTC, she'd break the record.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING
psssh, just because they didn't count doesn't mean they didn't happen. she's had nine votes cast against her.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING
Jenn's idol play just made amazing television, is the thing, even if many perceptive people would have made the same call.
Yeah, a truly amazing play would have been like, if say Spencer in Cagayan had successfully counter-predicted Tony and played his idol on Jeremiah. But I don't think anything like that is ever likely to happen.
Still, invalidating seven votes is really cool.
Also, I know a lot of you seem to hate edgic, but Jenn has a huge edit, and the No-Collars in general have been portrayed most favorably, aside from Mike.
People can mock me later if I'm wrong, but the winner is Jenn or Mike. Joe is screwed, Sierra's the most invisible of the remaining players, Dan's awful, Rodney's implied to be someone that makes big moves, but also a misogynist douche, Tyler is toneless and doesn't really have a story, Shirin has a redemption edit but she's still herself so can't win unless she gets a REALLY beneficial situation (say, if Rodney and Dan decide they want to ally with her), Will is...I don't know, I guess not getting enough really, and then Carolyn's a sticky wicket for sure, but she never seems like she's having any fun. Ever. and Hali's just Jenn's goofy sidekick.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

The Fuzzy Hulk posted:

They should do a season with just the first boot offs.

Call it losers vs. losers vs. old people.

They can bring back Francesca and Fairplay, so I'm all for it.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

ColonelCurmudgeon posted:

Since Francesca got voted out first twice, does that mean that she would get two chances, and be automatically re-entered into the game when she inevitably got voted out first for a third time?

I think it would only be fair to just give her a Tyler Perry Idol at the beginning.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING
Does anyone else think Shirin could win? Because I'm kinda feeling it now.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

Met posted:

She was my pick to win in the pre-game but I just don't see where she'll get jury votes at this point.

Depends on the matchup. I think she could beat Rodney and Dan.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING
This is silly. The clue was for the blue collar idol because it had not been found yet, and production wanted it found by someone. I suspect there may be another idol put into play soon, but maybe not.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING
Also, I started hanging out in r/survivor, and Max has been posting there occasionally. He responded to something saying that the clue was for a merge idol and not the Blue Collar idol by saying "False" or "Incorrect". Something to that effect.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

aidoru posted:

Tocantins is so good :kimchi: My personal favorite is Cook Islands because everyone was terrified it would end up in a race war, but it ended up being one of the best underdog-rooting seasons. I don't think a single episode disappointed me. I think that one's a good intro to the "weird idea to split up tribes" type of seasons. Especially since they drop it early.

I liked Cook Islands because the premise lead it to being the most diverse cast Survivor's ever had, and probably ever will have. But it had a lot of boring people on it.
It was really surprising to me watching it knowing one of its players would return and win, because I didn't think much of their gameplay.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

Arkane posted:

With Joe out of the picture, Mike needs numbers versus Boston Rod. Decent chance he reels in Jenn and that in turn rejuvenates Jenn's hopes? Jenn has gotten featured a hell of a lot for someone who has apparently given up, which leads me to believe something happens there.

Jenn, Sierra, Dan, Mike, Shirin makes 5 versus Rodney, Carolyn, Will, and Tyler.

Yeah. This is what's gonna go down. I can't see the 7 holding together now that the unifying threat is gone. Rodney might want to wait to make a move, but Mike now may realize this is when HE needs to make a move, before he gets got by Rodney.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

DoggPickle posted:

I think she feels like she can't win because she's going home next week. Between Mike's dislike of anything un-blue, Dan's general awfulness, and Rodney's outright fear of any girl who could possibly show him up in a challenge, she's doomed. Besides Jen, there isn't a single other girl with challenge potential. She kicks butt in challenges and is smart and witty, even if she's not playing ANY kind of make-friends game (which is disappointing). The blue collars collectively are terrible people, but since their outliers are do-nothing stupid lazy people, they have NO REASON at all, to stop voting as a block. It's sad that none of them are more interesting, but the fact is, they aren't. I feel like they're going to Pagong everyone else without a thought, and then realize too late "Oh crap I'm the 5/th in this ladder", because they are just plain stupid non-game players. Shirin is a weird wild card, because getting to the final will be nearly impossible, but if she manages it, she could win. The white collars have turned out to be incredibly boring people as well. I think if there was scheming going on ANYWHERE, they would have showed it by now, because nothing is happening.

Jen's SINGLE chance is that something weird happens in the next week or two, but even then, who would her allies be? If her general disdain for the game comes across as strongly to the game-lovers, Shirin and Caroline, as it does to the edit, then she's screwed anyways. And I don't think Joe would vote for her at this point, because even minus batshit crazy Ponderosa fueled irritation, he WANTED to be there and she DIDN'T, and he still got voted out.

If she's actually playing some long game to get on Rodney's good side, I could change my opinion, but as of now, I particularly dislike Jen because she was doing great until things didn't go her way (without any effort) and now she's being a cry-baby. Even though her apathy is downright funny, because she's a naturally funny person, I still hate quitters. Which she's managed to be without actually quitting. Boo.

As far as this post comes across negative, I still love survivor :dance: and anything can happen!


You're totally misreading what's going on. Mike would have to be ten times as dumb as he's so far been edited to seem in order to ignore the threat of Rodney. Rodney is planning on making an f7 play. But he won't have the numbers until then, and the whole thing falls apart if Mike cottons to it, as he seems to have this last episode. And since the episode set up a Shirin/Mike alliance, what we might see next time is Mike pulling in Shirin and Jenn in order to destroy Rodney's alliance before they can destroy his. It is no longer in Mike's best interest to hold together the whole giant alliance, and he knows it. Dan/Mike/Sierra holds, still, but Rodney's got his own thing going on, and Mike knows it. It's hard to hide poo poo like that when living in close proximity with other people for weeks. He sees Rodney being close with Carolyn and Will, what's he supposed to think?
Jenn's going to survive at least the next two votes, exactly because she has no constituency. This stage in the game, people are all thinking about "threats", and Jenn is no longer perceived as a threat, despite her strong challenge performances and clutch idol play. Because of her attitude. It might not have been deliberate, but it just might save her game. And she might be able to play it off as partially deliberate at FTC. Although I'm not sure she'll get as far as FTC, but I think she'll outlast Rodney's entire alliance.
Also, didn't you pick up that Jenn was self-aware about the whole situation, and really thought Joe deserved to be in the game more than her? I understand that, and at the same time understand why she didn't quit. Most of her was sick and tired of living with people she hated all the time, but she couldn't bring herself to give up completely. Her desire to end her game was as much about keeping Joe in and loving with all the people she hated as about leaving the game and reuniting with her buddy Hali. Speaking of, losing Hali must have been extremely devastating for her. They were together since the beginning of the game, and being that close and being each other's rock, when Hali went out, Jenn no longer had that emotional and social support. Jenn puts off an air of being tough and independent, but I think she needs people more than she cares to admit. Losing Hali for her was almost a knockout punch.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING
That was an unhinged episode. I'm sad to see Jenn go, but her story had run its course.

Man, I get why people are starting to be really down on this season, but I have faith. The edit is pretty strongly telegraphing that none of these loving assholes win. Relax, enjoy the ride.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

Milovan Drecun posted:

Trish wasn't my favorite, and I thought she did a few things to warrant Lindsey not liking her. But Lindsey went far and above, like Will, with the insulting. She was caught on camera talking poo poo, sometimes with Trish in earshot. Most of that happened when Lindsey thought she was in the power alliance. When she lost her only ally, she gave up and ratcheted up the confrontations. I maybe don't remember it 100%, but I do remember thinking Trish had it coming a bit but Lindsey's response and leaving were out of proportion. My brother on the other hand saw it all as Lindsey being a straight up bully, so yea, she'd actually have fit in super well with this cast.

Kass just had an AMA on Reddit, and multiple of her answers seemed to imply that Trish could be a tremendous rear end in a top hat with people she didn't like (Kass included).

In general Kass's AMA is a pro-read, although no AMA with a Survivor player will ever be as good as Dave Ball's, holy poo poo.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

Lone Goat posted:

Link please?

https://www.reddit.com/r/survivor/comments/33ndpm/kass_ama/

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

Ten Wasted Dollars posted:

I actually really like where Tyler/Carolyn are at right now. Sure, they don't make for the most exciting television but that doesn't mean they are bad/not doing anything. It would be stupid for them to stick their necks out and make waves when they have a cushy spot in the middle of an alliance that most people don't appear to be acknowledging. Their entire strategy revolves around keeping anything that can remotely make them a target and then hiding those things from the rest of the group. It takes a lot of self-awareness to do that and they seem to be doing a pretty good job of it. They can ride this out until a final four of Will/Rodney/Tyler/Carolyn and then take it from there. I'm sure that if either of them are in the F3 with Rodney and Will, then it will be a white collar victory. Judging from the preview for the next episode though, they may screw it up if they expose the information about Dan's double vote to the rest of the camp. Right now, they need Dan to be ignorant and happy which he seems like he will be if they just leave him alone.

I also don't see Shirin making it past the next episode, honestly. Unless she wins immunity (which doesn't seem too likely), the votes will be split between her and Mike. I think Mike is self-aware enough to realize that he is on the outs ( by Jenn's account he has basically been outcasted by the alliance that he was formerly the figurehead of ) and he'll play the idol which will send Shirin home. At this point, Shirin seems to have rubbed too many people the wrong way (Dan/Will/Carolyn/Tyler) and apparently (according to Jenn) Sierra is unwilling to work with her because she knows that she couldn't win against Shirin in the FTC. I don't think that there are enough people willing to work with her for her to make it to the end.

Mike and Shirin's last sliver of hope lies with Dan, but that sliver is pretty drat thin. If they _somehow_ found out about his double-vote power and then managed to convince him to flip on the Rodney revenge alliance, then I could see Mike and Shirin making it a bit further. However, I think that Dan seemed pretty burned by Mike after last episode's events so I think that those two working together again is a long shot. For Dan it's pretty good because his path to the end is now shared by less likeable people (Will and Rodney) and he can make it seem like Mike was the one that initially double-crossed him if he ever needs to defend himself at the end.

My only problem is that everyone other than Mike and Shirin have been slagged by the editing. I guess Tyler could win by virtue of being portrayed as reserved lurker gamebot, which is better than anyone else is getting. You look throughout the fan community, and other than a set of he-man douchebro Rodney supporters and a few admirers of Tyler and Carolyn, everyone's on board with Mike and Shirin. This can't be a mistake on the editors' part. I mean, I know this chain of logic is pretty meta, but I feel pretty confident this season would have different editing if the evil alliance won.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING
Tyler is using some sort of zen-master hypnosis to stay under the radar in such a way nobody ever even considers voting him out, and everyone involves him in everything. An unfortunate byproduct is that this isn't particularly compelling television. It's kind of weird to see a tall athletic guy pull off a successful invisibility gambit. He even won an immunity challenge, and came close to winning another. And yet Mike's the threat. I guess it's all attitude.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING
Yeah, it was a cool play. It would have been dumb to play his idol on Shirin, when that would have only bought her three more days, and lost him the only safety he would have if he lost individual immunity. I honestly don't remember the last time I've seen an idol used so cleverly without being actually played. Maybe when Tony actively made up poo poo about what his idol did, but even that wasn't as imaginative as what Mike did.
I don't know if it'll do him much good. The likeliest thing that happens is that Rodney and Carolyn talk Dan down from the cliff, claim Tyler's going, and then boot his rear end when Mike plays the idol. Dan is a moron, and will suffer the just Survivor fate that comes to all players that can't think all the way to the end of the game. Rodney and crew could keep Dan, everyone aiming to use him as a goat, but he's just not part of the core alliance, and this alliance operates on in-group/out-group logic to a crazy extent.
Ultimately, past whenever Mike loses immunity once and plays his idol, he's going to need to keep winning immunity. Because there is zero reason to keep him in the game if he's vulnerable. The entire jury so far likes him. However, if Tyler's the next out, he has a relatively easy path, unless he comes down with Malcolm Syndrome.

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Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

xcore posted:

Thanks, the tables on that website will help.

I need to remember to include Kym's, Kimmie's and Kellie's too.

And Kelley, lol.

I think if Mike doesn't win immunity, we're going to see some pretty crazy mind games. Tyler and Carolyn will probably try some sort of play to get Mike to feel safe so he doesn't play his idol. But a plan of that kind would probably hinge on using Dan, who is a moron.

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