|
I'd be really tempted by Matthews for a 7th. E: Maybe not more than Martavis for a 13th, but kind of close. Matthews can be an every week WR2, Bryant I wouldn't want as more than a WR3 or flex.
|
#
¿
May 5, 2015 00:05
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ May 15, 2024 02:29 |
|
|
VDay posted:Is there a database somewhere that isn't ESPN of last year's point totals in standard scoring? ESPN being down "for maintenance" is pretty annoying since I always just use that to see how guys did in my league's scoring. fftoday.com, though you might need to tweak the scoring slightly to make it exactly match your league.
|
|
#
¿
May 5, 2015 02:42
|
|
|
Silly Burrito posted:A question for you that came up amongst a few players in our league. 14 team league, starting over from scratch this year but will be two keepers. Half the league were smart and trying to encourage someone else to waste a first round pick on him, the other half were giving their honest assessment.
|
|
#
¿
May 13, 2015 01:21
|
|
|
drizzle posted:Yeah but Britt is only 26! And he may have a QB this year! Super easy choice to keep John Brown over Britt.
|
|
#
¿
May 16, 2015 22:41
|
|
|
LmaoTheKid posted:I'd drop Ridley. Also Sankey. I want nothing to do with the TEN offense. I'd rather have both of them than Ben Tate.
|
|
#
¿
May 17, 2015 02:26
|
|
|
drizzle posted:Yeah no one really thought Sankey was really any good except for a few crazies 29 when the season starts, so sure, old, but certainly should be good for at least another 1-2 years, and that's being pretty conservative. He's had fewer than 500 career carries and 150 career receptions.
|
|
#
¿
May 22, 2015 19:01
|
|
|
Ty1990 posted:Maybe I'm crazy but I've justified it in my own mind. I traded Alshon Jeffery (12th round keeper) for Adrian Peterson (1st round keeper). 12 team league. I would've kept Jeffery over both AP and Latavius Murray  You don't say how many you start, but unless it is only 1 WR, being able to snag one of the top WRs doesn't diminish Jeffery's value. Also is it any PPR?
|
|
#
¿
Jun 7, 2015 12:57
|
|
|
Fight Club Sandwich posted:Fantasy Football 2015: that's a lot of words and numbers that end up meaning nothing Agreed. My instincts say pick the funniest names and hell I won 69% of the leagues I played in last year.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 12, 2015 16:35
|
|
|
Where were Gio Bernard and Knowshon Moreno going last year? If you drafted kne of them and handcuffed them late with Hill and Miller, it wouldn't have been a disaster.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 13, 2015 05:02
|
|
|
Its Miller Time posted:Bell, JC, ADP and Forte go 1-4. I'm 5. Lacy not under consideration for you?
|
|
#
¿
Jun 18, 2015 21:43
|
|
|
opposable thumbs.db posted:Wasn't Brian Quick doing fairly well for the Rams last year before he got hurt? Yeah, Quick will be their #1.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 26, 2015 22:03
|
|
|
VDay posted:Like someone else mentioned the absolute top experts are consistently at like 60% accuracy. This is thrown around a ton. What does it mean exactly? They predict the positional rankings of 60% of the players accurately? Their projections are +/- 100 yards on 60% of players? 60% of the players they ranked as RB1 (#1-12), RB2 (#13-24), etc., are correct?
|
|
#
¿
Jul 6, 2015 01:05
|
|
|
Spoeank posted:FantasyPros tracks expert accuracy and it's their methodology: Thanks, I've never known what people were referring to with this. Although "60% correct" excludes any player comparisons that everyone agrees on (Step 4. Scrub out the data we do not want). So in absolute terms, the experts are doing better than predicting 60% of the time whether player A or player B will score more each week. They're just 60% correct in comparisons that are not trivial. That's totally reasonable and more informative than including trivial comparisons, imo, but good to keep in mind when thinking about how much of a crapshoot expert predictions are.
|
|
#
¿
Jul 6, 2015 02:03
|
|
|
RisqueBarber posted:Who would you guys take here (Red are players taken)? To me its between Blount and Boldin. They both suck. Maybe roll the dice on Agholor doing his best Maclin impression? Boldin is a really poor WR1 with limited upside, I think you need to take a shot on someone with a potentially higher upside.
|
|
#
¿
Jul 10, 2015 18:19
|
|
|
Forever_Peace posted:I'd personally probably go Landry or LaFell, depending on how savvy your league is and how likely Lafell is going to be available at your next pick. 0 PPR means Landry is poo poo. Agholor or Robinson would be my picks. Franks Happy Place posted:Allen Robinson would be my pick there, because he is the only one (besides maybe LaFell) who has WR1 upside in his bound of possible outcomes. No Agholor? Even with reports that Matthews is going to stay in the slot?
|
|
#
¿
Jul 10, 2015 18:31
|
|
|
Anderron Shi posted:I need to get my roster down to 16 players before this season's draft in my goon dynasty league (year 4), after which my roster will be back to 24. I need to cut 3 more players, who would you guys release? Pitta, SFO defense, Steven Jackson. Easy. You could also easily cut Kendricks, Antone Smith, and Devin Hester.
|
|
#
¿
Jul 13, 2015 18:52
|
|
|
coronaball posted:That is the worst keeper/dynasty league roster I have ever seen in any fantasy sport. How did that get like that? Haha, no way, there's far worse. Rivers, Vereen, JStew (and Mason before the Gurley pick looked good, just bad luck there), Cobb (uhh, that's it for WRs though), and Kelce. Probably won't even finish last in the league, though nor far from it. Farting is Such Sweet Sorrow, Newtonian Fluids, and Disposable Income are all similarly weak imo. I'm in a league with a team projecting to start Cutler, TRich, Doug Martin, Roddy White, Colston, Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, and Fleener...and our start up draft was this spring 
|
|
#
¿
Jul 18, 2015 01:16
|
|
|
Azhais posted:Which of those was your first rounder Oh hahah nah, not my team. His first four rounds went Charles, Foster, Edelman, and DJax. He's made some really bad trades: Tannehill for a 3rd + Terrence Williams, Jamaal Charles + Knile Davis for 1.07+a 2016 1st, then 1.07 for 2.02 + Doug Martin, then 2.02+2.06+2016 1st for Michael Floyd+Charles Johnson (DL)+3.12, then Keenan Allen for Jerry Hughes+Bernard Pierce+Ryan Mundy+three 5th-7th round rookie picks (yikes), etc etc. He's active and involved and legitimately doesn't seem to be purposely blowing up his team, he just takes like any trade. 12 team league, BTW. sourdough fucked around with this message at 01:38 on Jul 18, 2015 |
|
#
¿
Jul 18, 2015 01:36
|
|
|
Sataere posted:Also, really regretting picking Bortles over Bridgewater. You're not the only one. And at least you didn't go for JFF.
|
|
#
¿
Jul 18, 2015 04:00
|
|
|
Its Miller Time posted:Spiller Miller ~ Gordon Ellington ~ Morris ~ Ingram Spiller Each line is roughly equal for me. Miller will be a three down back for Miami, and even if he only gets the workload of last year, he'll be a solid top 10 RB. Maybe I'm too high on Gordon, but I like him to get a nice workload as well. Ellington could be a good 3 down back, but not sure he can handle it. I think he'll have the opportunity to try, though. Morris and Ingram are better two down backs, but both lacking in passing game. Safer than Ellington, but less upside. Spiller has a lot of upside, but a pretty low floor, as we just don't know how he'll be used. I think they're all in the 10-20 range for RBs, though, so I wouldn't argue much with almost any shuffling of them.
|
|
#
¿
Jul 21, 2015 23:08
|
|
|
Metapod posted:If it's 1qb keep Lamar Miller over Wilson Agreed. I'd think about Kelce over Wilson too, and maybe even over Miller, if you buy into the Kelce hype train (should I?!).
|
|
#
¿
Jul 22, 2015 05:37
|
|
|
Papes posted:Dez and Julio should probably both be gone by pick 6 imo. The OBJ hype is warranted given his rookie season, but I think the bolded part is being underappreciated by anyone drafting him mid 1st. I'd take all of Charles, Lacy, Bell, AP, Brown, Dez, Julio, DT, Gronk, Lynch, Foster, Calvin, Green, Jordy, and probably Cobb, before OBJ. I'd put OBJ right with CJ Anderson and Jeffery, ahead of Forte. OBJ will probably be a low end WR1 after regressing a decent bit from a historic rookie season, and he should be drafted that way, after all the guaranteed WR1s and top end RBs and Gronk (and Rodgers and Luck, if it's 6 pt passing TD or high pts for passing yardage). You don't take the risky guy that put up an extremely outlier 12 game stretch, especially when injury to Cruz and Eli having his best season in many ways are obvious contributing factors. That's just asking to whiff on your 1st round pick, that should be a rock solid high end starter for you.
|
|
#
¿
Jul 22, 2015 18:56
|
|
|
Sataere posted:I don't worry about regression with OBJ so much as injury. He has a history of soft tissue problems and I worry about him missing time. I don't think his numbers were flukey at all if you watched him play. The guy knows how to find the hole in a zone and has the agility and speed to just blow past coverage. Even when teams tried shutting him down, he was finding ways to make monster plays. I'd be amazed if he regressed without injuries being a factor. The thing is that putting up historically good numbers means you are almost guaranteed to regress, ya know? It's not about him being flukey or anything, it's about that production being almost unsustainable for anyone. Brown will very likely regress some too, but given his track record, I'd bet on him regressing less. E: I'm curious, but phone posting. Anyone bored and want to waste time at work?  How did the player with highest ppg overall or for their position do the following season? Did their ppg go up, down? What about positional ranking? It doesn't take into account the specifics of what OBJ did (rookie, historic ppg, Cruz injury, etc), but it'd at least give a baseline for how we expect season leading guys to do the next year (generally regress, generally don't, etc). Or use a ppg cutoff: how often do guys that score 25+, 22+, ppg regress or maintain it improve?
sourdough fucked around with this message at 19:25 on Jul 22, 2015 |
|
#
¿
Jul 22, 2015 19:05
|
|
|
89 posted:I ended up going with the 7th pick in a 10 man draft. The plan is for LeVeon to slip to me, if not, end up with DeMarco and go D.Thomas or Jordy with my 2nd pick (we have 3 WRs and 2 RBs, no flex). I figure if LeVeon doesn't slip to me, I go with DeMarco. I don't like Demarco that early. It won't be an RBBC by any means, but Mathews is going to siphon carries. FantasyPros has him around pick 16, which feels reasonable. Current MFL real draft ADP is ~21. He's not a first round guy after the sheer workload he had last year, the fact that he already had injury-proneness concerns, and that he has a capable RB1 right behind him.
|
|
#
¿
Jul 24, 2015 22:56
|
|
|
Spoeank posted:Beer I sent you my stupid hell on earth league with garbage settings Any PPR? That's slightly early for where Lacy usually goes, he's more of a late 1st. But if you're feeling him, that's not the worst. If it's 1 QB and standard settings, that's honestly too early for Luck too. You don't need to lock up a player for their entire career, you need to be maximizing value. You can trade a 2nd or 3rd round rookie pick for guys like Romo and Rivers every couple years and get close to Luck's production, which is something you can't reliably do at other positions. I know some think OBJ is the #1 dynasty player, so you would have company picking him that early. However, he's much riskier than other top tier WRs. Why him over Brown, Dez, etc? Bell at 4 is fine, and OBJ is popular there, though I don't agree really. Besides them, I'd go for top tier WRs before Luck or Lacy.
|
|
#
¿
Jul 26, 2015 12:42
|
|
|
Spoeank posted:Honestly I forgot about Antonio Brown when I put that together. I was shying away from Dez & DT for the #4 slot because we don't know at what point the QB situation becomes a dumpster fire in Dallas and Denver. I know DT produced with Tebow but he wasn't A1 top of the list with him. This actually changes things a decent bit with respect to Luck. 6 point passing TDs amplifies the advantage that Rodgers and Luck and other elite passing QBs have. To put it in perspective, just bumping up TD values from 4 to 6 gave Luck and Rodgers about as big a positional advantage as Gronk had last year, and just about everyone thinks Gronk is worth at least a mid 1st. Throw in the fact that QBs have such long careers, are more consistent, and are less likely to be injured, and I have no problem taking Luck with an early first in that format. Also no PPR does bump Lacy up slightly too, though I still think 1.04 is a bit too early.
|
|
#
¿
Jul 26, 2015 22:48
|
|
|
Forever_Peace posted:I went searching for data on an effortpost about why Mike Evans is a stud, but came away convinced that he doesn't belong in the top 10 WR for redraft. Like yeah historically receivers have a better second year than rookie year but I'm not sure we can project the same jump for the 2014 class that accounted for such a historic proportion of passing offenses. Isn't it the exact opposite? Everything I've seen lately has been looking at the reality of the "sophomore slump" in the past 10 or so years, and came away with the conclusion that sophomore WRs definitely do worse than in their rookie year. Here's some analysis from 2013, and here's the table I copied that summarizes it:  That is, rookie WRs that were fantasy relevant almost universally fell in the rankings their sophomore year, plus those that finished as a top 24 WR as a rookie regressed in points per game by 21%. This is all rookie receivers that finished in the top 48 from 2000 to 2011, by the way. It's definitely a small sample size, with a few outliers, but it agrees with another analysis I saw elsewhere and can't find now  Do you have a link for some analysis showing that historically receivers actually improve their sophomore year? Edit: I found this claiming only 35% of sophomore WRs that caught 30+ passes their rookie year regress. But the few example players they show don't match the numbers from the other article, likely because the first one I posted looked at regression in points per game and the second looked at regression in raw points scored. The former seems better to me, but it's debatable. But to be fair, the WR2 group in the first link, excluding Royal, did alright! sourdough fucked around with this message at 04:28 on Jul 27, 2015 |
|
#
¿
Jul 27, 2015 04:19
|
|
|
Forever_Peace posted:But contribution-per-age curves suggest that WRs increase their contributions until 25, then peak until 27 (source), and aging curves tell a similar story (source). While not the same thing as class, it's pretty related (and for some reason I can't find class curves at the moment). Yeah, I think I can concoct a scenario where those age curves are true and there is still a sophomore slump. Rookies enter at age 20, 21, or 22. Assume younger rookies tend to do more poorly their first year, older rookies tend to do better their first year, and everyone experiences a sophomore slump that is some 20% regression or whatever. Compared to age 20 as a baseline, age 21 will mix in 21 year old sophomores doing worse and 21 year old rookies that will do better, so the net effect could be an increase in performance of 21 year olds over 20 year olds. Anyway, thanks for looking these up I'll keep an eye out for anything else more definitive. I just think it's a really interesting question whether probability of sophomores regression is any larger than probability of regression in general, especially this year since so many of the 2014 rookie WRs did so well.
|
|
#
¿
Jul 27, 2015 19:06
|
|
|
RCarr posted:Yeah I'd be losing the 2nd either way so I figure if I trade it for the 3rd and 5th, then keep Bell with the 3rd, I just got an extra 5th rounder. How is it even a question then? Of course you should do that trade if you can!
|
|
#
¿
Aug 4, 2015 23:13
|
|
|
LmaoTheKid posted:Keeper check... thought I had this figured out but maybe not? Matthews for me for sure. In 6 pt passing TD, Rodgers and Luck are great first round picks, you should definitely scoop either up at 7. Ellington and JStew are good values there, but neither is as nice as Matthews in full PPR in the 10th. Given the 13th round keeper = only one, I'd do Matthews and Ellington pretty easily.
|
|
#
¿
Aug 5, 2015 17:25
|
|
|
89 posted:My main league is a 10 man, 0.5 PPR league. 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1K, 1DL, 2LB, 1DB, and NO flex. Watt could regress 20% and still blow DL#2 away by 50 points. He gives you better than Gronk positional advantage. He's legit 1st round value in your league, though you need to figure out if you can wait and nab him early 2nd or so based on other people underestimating him.
|
|
#
¿
Aug 7, 2015 18:18
|
|
|
Cigar Aficionado posted:So how is Odell Beckham going to be worth a late first round pick as a sophomore with a tiny sample size? He isn't.
|
|
#
¿
Aug 8, 2015 02:03
|
|
|
Forever_Peace posted:Don't draft a kicker or defense and pick up lotto tickets instead. Does 14 team league change this? I'm probably still going to, but just wondering.
|
|
#
¿
Aug 8, 2015 19:44
|
|
|
Doltos posted:Yeah that's how bad the 5th pick in a 14 person PPR league is. It seems like there's a ton of high quality WRs this year but there really aren't. You have Brown/Bryant/ODB/Thomas/Jones/Megatron/Nelson/Green/Cobb as the top tier, Hilton/Evans/Sanders as decent 2nd round picks, and then question mark 3rd/4th round picks like Jeffery/Benjamin/Hopkins/Cooks/Andre 3000/Jackson/Bryant/Jordan Matthews/Marshall/Edelman/Keenan Allen. That last group all is ehhh and I wouldn't feel great trotting any of them out week after week as my #1 WR. That's why if I have the fifth I feel like I have to reach on Brown/ODB/Thomas/Bryant then hope something is good for the second pick. I guess I'm confused. Brown or DT are not at all a reach at 5. For what it's worth, I preferred your second line up with Brown, Jeffery, etc.
|
|
#
¿
Aug 9, 2015 18:48
|
|
|
Tiptoes posted:I can't believe how many people are scared off by ODB. In PPR leagues, I think he's worth considering at 1.01. Why? I've made this post elsewhere, but here goes. The first WR off the board in full PPR is Antonio Brown. Look at Antonio Brown's scoring last year. He put up ~374 points. Since 2000, there have been 3 WRs that have beat that: Moss in his 23 TD season had 385 points, Moss in 2003 had 376 points, and Harrison in 2002 had 382 points. Jerry Rice in '95, with a line of 122-1848-15, had 396 points. That's ~1.3 points per game better than Brown's 2014. As in, it is almost literally impossible to do significantly better than what Brown put up in 2014. OBJ's pace extrapolated to 16 games gives 393 points. So best case, OBJ is literally the best WR in a generation, and he offers an extra ~1 point per game of upside over Brown. Realistically? He is actually mortal, that 12 game stretch of play represents his ceiling, not his floor, and he is vastly more likely to fall from that height at least a bit. Brown could fall too, but I don't think anyone would argue he is more likely to do so than OBJ, no? So sure, if you want to lock down a top WR rather than a top RB, roll the dice and go for OBJ at 1.02. But if you take him before Brown, I'll think you've made a mistake 
|
|
#
¿
Aug 9, 2015 21:34
|
|
|
Tiptoes posted:ODB is completely unstoppable. It's hard to get any better than that. Being the best player in the league is definitely within his range of outcomes, so yeah I'm going to consider him at 1.01. lol alright, can't argue with that
|
|
#
¿
Aug 9, 2015 21:59
|
|
|
Marshmallow Blue posted:I agree. I understand the whole, if the team is down, then you're probably screwed, but usually 1 can make up the difference for the other. Also garbage time flows both ways for you. Yeah, sometime last season, someone here (SurgicalOntologist?) posted a nice breakdown of (trigger warning) covariance in scoring by teammates at different positions. IIRC, WR and RB are modestly anticorrelated, QB and WR are decently correlated, WR1 and WR2 were a wash. So having QB/WR will be somewhat boom/bust on a week by week basis, while WR/RB will be a bit more safe and steady.
|
|
#
¿
Aug 11, 2015 15:28
|
|
|
Suave Fedora posted:Just my preference here, but that system you linked to is over-powered. TDs in any situation should rightfully merit 6 points (including any TDs scored by an IDP), but to award 4 points for forced fumbles and sacks is too much. Those things don't actually put points on the board and shouldn't be worth more than a field goal, which actually puts points on the board. I like those settings he linked. Too often leagues have IDP scoring so low that they're an after thought, and then what's even the point. Make IDP scoring as good as offensive scoring so that there are more viable strategies for teams (i.e., go Watt and Kuechly vs. Dez and Rodgers vs. Gronk and Cobb for your first two start up picks).
|
|
#
¿
Aug 11, 2015 20:48
|
|
|
Doltos posted:Yeah and I'm saying he's a garbage fire fantasy TE because his ceiling is like a Greg Olsen's season last year, which still wasn't good enough to really distinguish him. Also Mariota isn't the type to dump it off to the TE, he usually targets his RBs like he did in Oregon, but he does hit his TEs a lot in the end zone (6 times last year), so there's a possibility that Delanie becomes fantasy relevant this year. That's a big if though because I think the Titans will have a lot of trouble getting into the red zone or scoring this year. I'm so confused. Last year in 0.5 PPR at least, Walker was TE 7 and Olsen was TE 4. Are you complaining that a non-Gronk, non-Graham TE has a ceiling of TE 4 and that that isn't somehow a good thing? Are you saying TE 7 is not fantasy relevant? Last year among TEs, Walker was 4th in yardage, 10th in receptions, and was tied for 7th on TDs. In a league with more than 6 teams, I'm going to go out on a limb here and say the 7th best TE was fantasy-relevant.
|
|
#
¿
Aug 11, 2015 21:50
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ May 15, 2024 02:29 |
|
|
VDay posted:Pretty sure someone just gave that to him, unless I've been selectively not seeing it so far. But oh boy that sure is a picture of some poo poo. Thank god for SALR's hide avatar button. lol yeah that wasn't there when I quoted him at least
|
|
#
¿
Aug 11, 2015 22:35
|
|