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platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

If you don't think Biden will run you can double your money.

Or make 1% in ten days with "Will Al Gore announce by August 31st?"

platzapS has issued a correction as of 17:51 on Aug 21, 2015

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platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

Is there any rhyme or reason to the way RealClearPolitics updates its polling average?

platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

New market: Will Mitch McConnell resign as Senate majority leader by the end of the year?

platzapS has issued a correction as of 23:12 on Sep 29, 2015

platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

Fuschia tude posted:

I see that and I'm not on mobile :confused:

Fake edit: I see both current value of investments and gain/loss.

Same here. How is gain/loss determined? Does that mean over the last day? All time?

platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

Gyges posted:

It looks like it's just taking how much you paid for your current shares and comparing that to the current price.

Oh that makes much more sense, thanks.

platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

No on "Will Jim Webb become a third-party presidential candidate this year?" seems like a pretty good buy at 67 cents unless there's something I don't know.

platzapS has issued a correction as of 07:59 on Oct 22, 2015

platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

I suddenly found I had no available funds and looked at what I had bought:

NO on all four tranches of NURSES.

I was so relieved when I woke up.

platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

Vox Nihili posted:

Jim Webb third party run: Yay or Nay?

Necc0 posted:

Third party runs seem to generally be reserved for eccentric loudmouths who have enough pre-existing popularity to fund a campaign. Webb doesn't seem like that type to me. I don't feel strongly enough to put money on it though.

I bought 400 NO shares (only meant to buy ~200, accidentally doubled).

My reasoning is mostly: he doesn't have a huge base, it's super super hard and futile to run without a party, and I've never heard of someone losing the nomination of their party and then running independent.

Actually, I'm curious: when was the last time someone's done that?

platzapS has issued a correction as of 20:40 on Oct 26, 2015

platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

pathetic little tramp posted:

Yeah I know that would close the market if he announced he was running again, a la Perot; but I'm talking when does it close if he doesn't do anything? I didn't see an end date for that in the rules.

It says "this year" so I assume by Dec 31.

platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

Jim Webb last night

(?)

platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

Who ended up the biggest losers and winners in the last two debates?

platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

Aliquid posted:

Just lost $3, could have been way worse.

$283 :(

I apologize for being part of a wrongheaded consensus.

platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

Vox Nihili posted:

Also this, it goes 100x for those stupid debate win/lose markets. Recall the Great Chafing and get elsewhere.

I skipped the first three debate markets. Who won and lost?

platzapS has issued a correction as of 19:38 on Nov 3, 2015

platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

Aww hell yeah they just got linked markets for debate polls.

platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

Gyges posted:

Outside Kentucky, has the thread consensus been wrong?

Jim Webb ran as an independent :( .

What has the thread gotten right besides Joe Biden?

platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

Someone upended the Caitlyn Jenner RNC market last night. Insider or idiot?

Edit: Maybe somebody just got drunk.

platzapS has issued a correction as of 18:34 on Nov 30, 2015

platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

Peachstapler posted:

USPREZ16 was linked this morning.

Are there any more markets that need to be linked or does this mean they've completed the switchover?

e: FUN FACT: The only USPREZ16 contracts you can sell anymore are Clinton, Rubio, Trump, Cruz, Sanders, Bush, Christie, and Carson.

platzapS has issued a correction as of 18:52 on Dec 3, 2015

platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

Medical device tax repeal is trading in the high eighties. Good bet?

platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

New market: Will Romney become a candidate in 2016?

platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

Aliquid posted:

what the gently caress? why is this included after I already lost a bunch of money in the RNOM link because of his share price? he was pulling between .01 and .02 a day ago, and now .05 is acceptable?

Yeah, is there some trickery in the rules I'm not getting?

Predictit posted:

Former Massachusetts governor Willard Mitt Romney shall become a candidate for president of the United States in the 2016 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy and/or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee or principal campaign committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission.

Absent such filing(s), this market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Romney and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, establishment of other campaign infrastructure, and/or any delegate votes he may receive at the Republican nominating convention.

This market may close prior to the End Date, if/when PredictIt determines the above criteria have been met.

platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

New poll for Bernie puts him at 31.

platzapS has issued a correction as of 20:19 on Dec 19, 2015

platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

A bunch of new polling markets just hit the towers.

platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

If Trump doesn't sweep everything but Texas I'm hosed.

platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

Trump in Mississippi is at 90c, and the election's tomorrow. Is there any reason I shouldn't buy a lot?

platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

nachos posted:

I would take these fools to town IF I COULD loving MAKE A BET

I've never tried to flip on election night before. This is maddening.

ALSO: Why do some of you seem so bullish on Clinton?

platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

Bernie in michigan is now at 80c

platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

Alright, sold my Bernie nos at a loss. That rear end in a top hat better at least loving win.

platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

Rubio NO in Florida is down in the low eighties. Apparently he's doing well at the debate?

platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

Ah man I was hoping my 99c Hillary Yes/Bernie No would sell fast. Hope this isn't too long a night.

platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

Huge swings in MOV Dem.

platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

Vox Nihili posted:

Dem MOV market swinging big, now is the time to get in on Yes (Clinton's huge counties are both 0% reporting).

I'm trusting you forums gambler Vox Nihili.

platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

I am the stupidest motherfucker alive.

platzapS
Aug 4, 2007


My terrible judgment and reckless behavior has convinced me I need to cash out. It's been delightful! I feel marginally more experienced at trying to predict the future.

platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

Lutha Mahtin posted:

So there's a "chart" tab on the main page of linked markets. Mind. Blown.

This is really cool.

platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

Mike Pence officially announced as VP nominee. As of this moment there are still 98c shares available. Mike Pence GOP VP.

platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

Michael Scott posted:

Yeah it'll stay at .98 for a while, due to expiration at the end of the convention. What's your point?

Some people like guaranteed small gains!

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platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

New markets:

Who will be New Zealand's Labour Party Leader at the end of 2017?
NZ National Party leader?
Who will win the 2017 Ecuadorian presidential election?

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