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GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo
For those who support the national assembly, what do you see as the best possible outcome? If there is somehow a peaceful transfer of power, do you think Guaido will be able to hold fair elections on 30 day notice after taking power? Would he (or his successor) be able to concretely improve the food situation, or is the economy irreversibly damaged?

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GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo

Mr.Unique-Name posted:

Serious question to each individual posting here: What do you see as being the best course of action for America? Just wash their hands of it and let come what may? Diplomatic pressure? Invasion? Increased aid? Focus on charities trying to help the situation?

I see a lot of people here strawmanning the gently caress out of one another or calling one another jingoists or heartless or whatever, but few people are laying out what they think should actually be done in this situation. Or is the pissing match and talking around each other the point of this thread now?

end sanctions against venezuela. ideally, the us would ship some food down (because of the dumb trade war with china, we have massive piles of soybeans just sitting in silos waiting for someone to buy them at bargain prices) but that would be even more politically impossible than ending sanctions. none of this will happen, of course, as it is in the best political interests of the american center and right to turn venezuela into hell on earth so that they can blame everything on socialism, and wall street and the oil companies want regime change to extract as much wealth and oil at bargain rates as they can.

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo

Moridin920 posted:

I cannot believe that with the USA's billions poured into ultra stealth planes that we cannot drop food and aid packages without worrying about 60s-80s era Soviet AA defenses.

Like that can't really be a real concern while Trump refuses to let the embassy evacuate right.

plus, maduro is willing to do almost anything to get access to credit. the us could theoretically extend credit in exchange for some percent of it being spent on american food, a much better deal than what maduro is paying now that would also prop up us farmers who need new markets.

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo

quote:

I, DONALD J. TRUMP, President of the United States of America, in order
to take additional steps with respect to the national emergency declared
in Executive Order 13692 of March 8, 2015, and particularly in light of
recent actions and policies of the Government of Venezuela, including serious
abuses of human rights and fundamental freedoms; responsibility for the
deepening humanitarian crisis in Venezuela; establishment of an illegitimate
Constituent Assembly, which has usurped the power of the democratically
elected National Assembly and other branches of the Government of Ven-
ezuela; rampant public corruption; and ongoing repression and persecution
of, and violence toward, the political opposition, hereby order as follows:
Section 1
. (a) All transactions related to, provision of financing for, and
other dealings in the following by a United States person or within the
United States are prohibited:
(i) new debt with a maturity of greater than 90 days of Petroleos de
Venezuela, S.A. (PdVSA);
(ii) new debt with a maturity of greater than 30 days, or new equity,
of the Government of Venezuela, other than debt of PdVSA covered by
subsection (a)(i) of this section;
(iii) bonds issued by the Government of Venezuela prior to the effective
date of this order; or
(iv) dividend payments or other distributions of profits to the Government
of Venezuela from any entity owned or controlled, directly or indirectly,
by the Government of Venezuela.
(b) The purchase, directly or indirectly, by a United States person or
within the United States, of securities from the Government of Venezuela,
other than securities qualifying as new debt with a maturity of less than
or equal to 90 or 30 days as covered by subsections (a)(i) or (a)(ii) of
this section, respectively, is prohibited.
...
the term ‘‘Government of Venezuela’’ means the Government of Ven-
ezuela, any political subdivision, agency, or instrumentality thereof, includ-
ing the Central Bank of Venezuela and PdVSA, and any person owned
or controlled by, or acting for or on behalf of, the Government of Venezuela.

a lot more than just individual oligarchs in these

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo

Der Waffle Mous posted:

iirc there are some very depressing reasons this isn't done.

https://www.businessinsider.com/b2-bomber-operating-cost-libya-air-strike-2017-1

it costs $130k/hr to operate a b2. venezuela is about 6 hours away from missouri by air, so the mission would cost 1.5 million a flight (ignoring in-air refueling costs)

so shipping costs would be at a bare minimum $39/pound of food, almost certainly more as some of that weight will be packaging/parachutes and refueling.

just negotiate for food shipping instead.

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo

Presenting Nipples posted:

Can someone explain why Donald J. Trump, Elliot Abrams, & Mike Pompeo are so concerned about the plight of the Venezuelan people?

Overwhelming concern for the starving masses of venezuela
Indignation at government corruption in venezuela
Love of democracy

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...be20_story.html

quote:

Guaidó told The Post that the opposition was preparing to challenge the government’s authority by bringing food aid into the country, aid made possible by a $20 million pledge from the United States and offers from Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and the European Union. Maduro has largely blocked aid in the past, claiming that reports of rapidly spreading hunger and disease in Venezuela are fictions invented by his enemies.

“Humanitarian aid is the center of our policy, and we are working on the logistics,” Guaidó said. “We believe this will be a new dilemma for the regime and the armed forces. They’ll have to decide if they’re on the side of the people and want to heal the country, or if they will ignore it. I believe we’re going to achieve it. They’re going to let it in.”

does anyone know if the offers of food aid from other countries than the us are more substantial? $20m in food aid is a drop in the bucket, $0.65/person.

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Russia has to save the gold from american empirialists so it can be used for future anti imperial actions aka A nice dacha for Maduro in Crimea.


- every poster after Avila posts a maduro debt press release

hey, a nice dacha in crimea is better than being given butt cancer by the cia.

also, the bank of england just stole ~30 tons of gold from maduro's government, you can't blame them for seeking alternative ways of storing it.

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo
how will ending price controls on food help the famine? even if businesses start selling food, the rising prices combined with hyperinflation and the rise in unemployment will ensure that the poor cannot buy the food on the shelves. this is exactly what happened in russia after the collapse of the ussr; the removal of price controls on food made it profitable for stores to put food on the shelves, but the prices were simply unaffordable for normal russians. the policy of ending food price controls was a failure, and they were re-instituted less than a year after they were reintroduced.

this isn't coming from some tankie source. take a peek at this overly long document that one of the neo-liberal architects of privitization wrote about what happened in russia's economic transition [mostly to absolve himself of any responsiblity].
http://jeffsachs.org/2012/03/what-i-did-in-russia/

quote:

I fully understand from the start that the reform task would be vastly more difficult and complex than in Poland. There were several critical and quite obvious reasons for this concern:
* Russia’s economic mainstay, oil and gas production, was already plummeting by the late 1980s, and this was causing a financial catastrophe for the government because oil revenues were a vital source of budget income and foreign exchange
* Russia was entering into an acute external debt crisis as a result of heavy external borrowing during the Gorbachev years
* Russia’s economic structure was far more distorted than in Eastern Europe, with a vast proportion of Soviet industry producing “negative value added” (output worth less at world market prices than inputs such as energy and other raw materials)
* The Soviet region utterly lacked the history and practice of market economics and democratic governance

these are all problems that are present to a much greater extent in venezuela now than they were in russia in the early 90s. among the decisions that sachs identifies as leading to the failure of the shock doctrine in russia are: lack of western financial aid/debt restructuring, cutting the social safety net, and privatization of oil companies. no debt forgiveness is going to come from wall street, and the us's proposed food aid of $20 million is effectively no aid. guaido already plans to privatize PDVSA, and will almost certainly cut the chavez era social reforms.

i'm not putting words in this economist's mouth. here is a piece he just wrote about venezuela, in which he calls for a power-sharing agreement between maduro and guiado that could lead to an end to us sanctions.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/26/opinions/heres-how-venezuela-can-achieve-a-peaceful-resolution-to-the-crisis-sachs/index.html

quote:

US instead appears to be aiming for regime change and tightening sanctions to bring Maduro to his knees. Such an outcome is perhaps feasible, though it would leave a very bitter legacy. More likely, though, it would occasion further violence and an escalation of the economic crisis, possibly leading to war.

This is the urgent time for compromise, not for a winner-take-all showdown.

this isn't exactly a ringing endorsement of the us's regime change policy, nor an endorsement of guaido's policies. he doesn't mention privatization a single time as a way to improve the food crisis.

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo

Squalid posted:

What policies do you believe would reverse the decline in the Venezuelan economy? Also what social reforms do you believe will receive cuts?

I'm no economist so I don't have strong feelings about how best to fix the immediate and long-term issues. Obviously these are complicated issues and there are no easy outs. Whenever the issue of the gas subsides have come up itt for example, which originated before Chavez and are obviously terrible and wasteful policy, the Venezuelan opposition have become extremely anxious. Cutting it would mean immediate cost of living increases for everyone. However its not as if they aren't still paying the real cost, even if it appears free at the pump. They pay for that gas by having fewer state resources elsewhere. So what do you do? Do you institute gradual price increases towards the real price? Substitute it for a straight cash payment to the poor? Or do you go the Shock Doctrine route and dump it all at once? Unfortunately when someone spends two decades destroying a country, it leaves one with nothing but hard choices.

as long as the price of oil remains low, venezuela won't be able to recover; almost all of their revenue comes from oil. they direly need to diversify their economy, both to stabilize their economy from future oil price fluctuations and to do something about the unemployment rate. this requires capital investments that simply won't happen with the sanctions in place. if maduro leaves power, the sanctions go away but the us will demand that the oil profits go towards debt repayment, so there will still be very little money to reinvest in new industries, even after deep cuts to government spending. financial recovery would require money that isn't in venezuela now, can't be acquired with the price of oil so low, and will not be given by western aid groups. i don't think that any sort of economic recovery is likely, or that the hunger will end anytime soon.

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo

PT6A posted:

Would it work if the government/external groups paid food producers the difference between the market price of food, and the price-controlled price of food? That way they'd have incentive to produce, and food wouldn't immediately become super expensive. Obviously it's not a strategy that's sustainable in the long term, but it seems like it would help stabilize things in the short term without having people starve because they can't afford food.

venezuela doesn't produce enough of its own food for subsidies to end hunger. chavez should have focused much more heavily on growing the agricultural industry to the point that venezuela wasn't dependent on imports the second that he decided to challenge the us.

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo

Acebuckeye13 posted:

Some news!

Venezuela crisis: US sending aid 'at Guaidó's request'

Honestly, it's not a bad plan. If Guaidó can successfully convince the military to allow food aid into the country, it severely undermines Maduro's legitimacy and gives Guaidó an instant win. And so long as food aid is just sitting just across the border, that makes Maduro look like more and more of an rear end in a top hat for refusing to allow food into the country while people are starving.

if you are less charitable, you could also suggest that this is a ploy to set up military encampments on the border to prepare for an invasion. self-defense against any incursion into venezuelan territory can then be cast as a cold-blooded attack on us forces involved in food aid in the media, and used as a pretext for war.

hopefully, this is just paranoia and john bolton and guaido only want to distribute food into venezuela.

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo

Squalid posted:

Too much money is being made on the shortages to care about any of that:

https://apnews.com/69e87948759d4f0ab81326718bf89032

Thank you for posting this. I'm not sure that this is the best source tho. It relies too much on the anonymous testimony of a large food importer. He complains about paying $8m in bribes to the government on a >$130m food contract, but then later provides evidence that the government is paying twice the market price for corn. So he is presumably overcharging by >65m (ostensibly to cover bribes), giving 8m to the government, leaving a surplus of > 50m for himself. Accepting kickbacks from this sort of deal is of course bad and should be stopped, but it doesn't sound as if maduro's ministers are the main profiteers here.

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo

Squalid posted:

I was making a point of using as many sources as possible to make it more difficult for someone to argue I was using biased propaganda to make my point. That statement was just too juicy not to post though. The system was so blatantly corrupt and broken the bandits could barely even be bothered to hide it, and the journalists easily found records demonstrating how the Venezuelan government was being over charged presumably as part of a classic kickbacks scheme. Maduro's ministers collaborate on the profiteering with greedy importers and gangsters and yet somehow a bunch of people are convinced the shortages are being caused by HOARDING and saboteurs in private industry stealing all the flour. To the extent that smuggling consumer goods back out of Venezuela contributes to the problem the primary culprits are most likely in the military and PSUV, because they are the ones who control the distribution, they are the ones with the access and opportunity to engage in smuggling.

this isn't what i was saying at all. the figures in that ap story also fit with the story that telesur is telling of profiteers using their cartel power on imports to jack up prices (telesur just obviously leaves out the inconvient bits about the government taking bribes). 12% of the exorbitant profits on food go to government officials, yet they recieve 100% of the blame from the ap for the profiteering. that article is like if some us opiate executive was interviewed and said that the united states government was to blame for all of the deaths that his product caused because they recieved tax income from his drug sales.

even that little exchange with Torres could be taken out of context. if the full context was something like:

quote:

["Where is the corn we ordered?"]

“This boat has been waiting for 20 days,” he wrote in text messages seen by AP.

“What’s the problem?” responded Marco Torres.
it would completely alter the meaning of the message. unfortunately, since the full context of the message is literally unverifiable due to the anonymity of the source, we have to trust the goodwill of the ap reporters, and the word of someone who stole at least $50m from his government.

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo

Squalid posted:

Well I'm not sure I've seen evidence these importers have the cartel power to jack up prices independently. They get that power through their relationships with the state officials taking their bribes.

More fundamentally, I have literal interest in assigning personal blame for systemic problems or engaging in trivial moralizing. Venezuelan state officials take bribes because they have no oversight and its easy money. Private businesses that do dealings with them pay the bribes because they get fat kickbacks and they need extra incentive for engaging a market with no rule of law to mitigate risk from arbitrary breach of contract or expropriation. What point is there in quantifying the share of blame and parceling it among actors? The whole edifice is rotten from the foundations to the crenelations.

Profiteering and rent seeking is just how the system works. If you want it to work otherwise, you have to build a better system. As it functions today the Venezuelan government and economy is riddled with bad incentives. Because those problems have been ignored for 20 years or even intentionally exaggerated, reversing the decay of Venezuelan institutions is now a herculean task.

if government corruption was really the driving force behind price inflation of food in venezuela, why would thieving government officials only take 12% of the proceeds? you are forced to assume that the same officials who are heartlessly stealing food from the mouths of the poor then donate 90% of their ill-gotten gains to importers for some reason. it would be more logical to assume that the originator of this graft is the party that benefits the most from the arrangement, the food importers in this case. blaming the whole of society for problems that massively benefit one party is just covering for the people profiteering on food staples.

If you are banking on us intervention curtailing rent seeking and profiteering, i suggest you take a good look at what business conditions are like in both the us, and countries in which the us has intervened recently. rent seeking and profiteering is the essence of capitalism, removing maduro to put guaido in his place will only make things worse.

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo

elgatofilo posted:

My argument has always been the same. I'm not sure what your point is: Colorism is a well documented phenomena in Latin America with a lot of social science research backing it up (I've previously recommended Eduardo Bonilla-Silva's "Racism without Racists.")
Racism towards Latinos and Latin-Americans is also a well documented phenomena in the United States which is where these arguments are orginating from and what I'm talking about. White Americans would do well to avoid insulting Latinos and Latin Americans if they want to advance leftist causes. Gabriel Hetland and Alejandro Velasco demonstrate it is perfectly possible to do this without paternalistic racism.

racist: calling people who literally have recieved billions of dollars of stolen assets from the us and uk foreign assets
not racist: supporting the regime change efforts of a man who organized right-wing death squads to kill latinos

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo

Xae posted:

If the CIA wanted to smuggle weapons it wouldn't be 19 US made civilian weapons on a direct flight from Miami. It would be 19 containers of AK-47s and RPG from the former Soviet Republic of Landlockistan.

They probably busted a drug smuggler who kept weapons on board.

why would a drug smuggling plane with a crew of only a few people carry 19 rifles, and no drugs?

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo

Discendo Vox posted:

Oh I entirely agree, and thank you for finding it! I just wanted to prebut the “how can you attack this sourcebwhen they’re just reposting other news stories”, as if that weren’t a major way to construct the illusion of source legitimacy.

Maybe you could do the minute of googling to check if there is a non-RT source yourself instead of detailing the thread by instantly calling it fake news?

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo

Discendo Vox posted:

The difference is that you are unwilling to acknowledge a distinction between the French opposition's agency or motives and the Nazis. Petain is trying to leverage foreign countries to restore the country, and because Germany has to be a part of that process, because it's they are occupying the country and all of it's natural resources. You conflate the two, and then shift the scope of commentary entirely to the Nazis, and then present the entire topic in terms of a dichotomy framed by the involvement of Nazi Germany.You've been really open about this!

Other content, other materials, other people, don't get discussed. In the pursuit of this frame, sources get posted without citation or critical engagement, including straight up state propaganda presented as independent journalism. Lies, lies that are really obvious, get repeated over and over again. Everyone else winds up spending time and effort trying to disentangle and refute this tide of shitposting. Thus, by a constant shifting of rhetorical focus, a thread about the details of the situation in Vichy France becomes yet another thread about the Nazi Germany.

it doesn't matter if collaborators are motivated by the best of intentions, the very nature of collaboration makes them tools of their masters. i did this not to godwin it up, but because you are trying to put rhetorical distance between two inextricably linked parties. guaido has no electoral mandate, and only one air force general without aircraft for an army. all that he has is the diplomatic recognition of the us and europe, and billions in money stolen from the PSUV (generously held in safekeeping for him by the us). guaido has literally 0 leverage to negotiate with, as all of his cards are currently held by the us. how could he have distinct aims from the us at this point, and more to the point how could he possibly oppose the us on anything? he is far more of a puppet than Petain ever was.

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo

Cease to Hope posted:

you list all of these assets and not the popular support of those in Venezuela who are opposed to Maduro. Do you think such people don't exist or don't matter?

he doesn't seem to have that much popular support tbh. there are clearly many people who oppose maduro, (judging from those huge rallies), but many fewer people show up to pro-guaido rallies than anti-maduro ones. the opposition seems very fragmented, which only weakens guaido's hand to negotiate (as he could be replaced with any one of his rivals almost interchangeably).

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo

Discendo Vox posted:

Yup, it's Russia Today. Note the lack of attribution in both CLB's post and in the original image. Both are intentional.

you constantly nitpick about sources because you are completely unwilling to consider that you might be wrong. therefore, anything that might force you to change your opinion of the world must be russian/venezuelan/qatari propaganda from evil state-run media. speaking of shifting rhetorical focuses, you constantly do this as a way to not engage with any of the information in a post. a healthy distrust of media and concern with sourcing is good, but you take it too far as a way of burying your own head in the sand. do you have any actual information that that infographic is wrong? or are you just calling facts you don't want to admit russian propaganda?

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo

Discendo Vox posted:

I mean Russia Today is literally a state propaganda agency. As I have discussed before, a major part of the modus of propaganda is to selectively present true information to create a false impression. There's nothing to discuss with its content, it's just more frame-shifting whataboutism.

Here's a good rule of thumb- if I'm having to look up where you're getting your information from because it's not being listed, and it turns out it's a propaganda agency, I'm probably not going to think you're arguing in good faith anymore. This keeps happening.

if it is nefarious russian propaganda, point out where it is wrong. state propaganda sometimes prints the truth (especially about their enemies).

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo

Discendo Vox posted:

It's a strong reason for people to post other sources that aren't hiding what they are, though. Again, a significant part of the evidence of bad faith here is that I'm having to locate what the source is.

Mordin, you're not the only or most active poster of this poo poo, but just scrolling up a bit:

again, defend your claim that that map is unreliable because it is from a russian source. what about it is wrong, other than the fact that it ignores a us coup in bolivia? is it because it uses the color red, infamously associated with borscht and communism, which deludes misguided bernie bros into defending maduro the way that a matador provokes a bull? or are you simply unwilling to consider the role that the us has played in south american politics in the last century?

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo

Discendo Vox posted:

If we know that the message is true, why do we need to repeat it over and over? Why does it need to frame our understanding of the subject? Why is RT playing it over and over in social media? What is the intention of promulgating that message, without attribution or information more directly relevant to the situation in Venezuela?

again, what about that image is wrong (other than not coloring enough countries in south america red)? is it that it shows the us in a bad light by telling the truth? why is this so offensive to you? you already seem to believe that guaido is the best hope for venezuela, why complain about a map that shows all of the other wonderful ways in which the us has helped south america?

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo

Cease to Hope posted:

oh boy, i'm excited to read 15 more posts about this one image from a russian news site, especially from posters who use "guaido" and "the us" as synonyms

noun! verb! guaido!

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo

Discendo Vox posted:

Venezuelan bank accounts being used to launder the country's money into private foreign accounts were seized. Literally every reference to account seizure in the article is referring to sanctions on individual PDVSA leaders. When you use messages written in bad faith to shape your worldview, you lose track of or discount all the information that doesn't agree with it-because, unsurprisingly, the statements of fact you get are selective.

far more has been siezed than that

https://www.businessinsider.com/venezuela-gold-reserves-frozen-by-bank-of-englandf-2019-2

The Bank of England has refused to give back $1.56 billion in Venezuelan gold after countries around the world say the regime is illegitimate

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo

Darth Walrus posted:

Uhh, where's the Sanders bit?

Your beloved murder-happy bus driver can certainly throw himself forward as a candidate. I'm sure you can donate your $27 and/or 2.7 trillion bolivars.

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo

Private Witt posted:

It was a joke that winked at Bernie's slightly soft stance on the issue, and nothing more. I do not think the two are remotely comparable, so don't put words in my mouth.

Maduro has veered off the trail of socialism into the waiting arms of outright kleptocracy.

why is bernie a "murder-happy bus driver"? i get how opposing invading venezuela is twisted in your mind to being pro-murder, but why a bus driver?

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo

quote:

Man: This is garbage. This is the situation that we're in. Can you imagine it? We can't live like this. We need to remove the president. We want to get rid of him. We're street people, but we want to get rid of the president. We want to get rid of him. We can't live like this like this, eating garbage. I'm almost 36 years old and this is the first time in my life that I'm doing this [eating garbage], for myself and for my children.

Ramos: How often do you have to do this?

Man: Every day. Every day. Because a salary doesn't buy anything.

the guy directly contradicts himself one sentence later. not saying that he is a crisis actor, just that you clearly can't take every word he says as 100% true.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo
https://twitter.com/_whitneywebb/status/1100229377047085057

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo

Discendo Vox posted:

You've lost track of your own train of thought at this point- I've never even brought up Cuba in this conversation, you've only just added it to the mix. What you have done is confuse a basic literacy of the underpinnings of international law as an embrace of...well, it seems to shift and expand or contract from post to post.

Again:

The United States, through a wide range of forms of activity, has influence outside its own borders. These effects are ethically weighted, whether they occur through action or inaction (this would be the trolley problem part). One example of this is the necessity of recognizing and designating sovereign entities (this would be the foundations of international law part). Another is the agreements associated with Ctigo. Another is immigration policy. Another is AML. Another is any form of interaction with any other proximate country, which is itself influenced and influencer.

Setting aside your myopic and willful ignorance of countries that are not the US, these other factors still exist - saying "the US should not involve itself in any way in Venezuelan politics" is nonsensical because the US, like any other country on the planet, cannot "not involve itself in any way". It's literally not possible. Your endless, willful refusal to engage with the multiple examples that we've provided of why isn't some sort of bold stand. Principled ignorance is not a substitute for reading comprehension.

nobody is calling for the united states to become a hermit kingdom, that is just a strawman you created. instead, they just want an end to us sanctions on venezuela, and an end to the constant threats of violence (and suspected support of armed coups) against venezuela. basically, people just want the us to treat venezuela the same way that the us treats canada. you have argued at great length on these forums against russian influence in us politics, surely you can understand why people wouldn't want a far greater degree of us interference in venezuelan politics?

the absurd shambles that is going on at the venezuelan embassy in dc right now, and the incredibly blatent theft of venezuelan assets held abroad are indications that the us isn't motivated by following international law. the policies of the us state department for a very long time have been about realpolitik, not ethics, and thinking of international politics as some sort of carefully optimized ethics problem obscures the real motivations of state actors. trying to fit an ethical framework around imperialism doesn't make it more humane, it just warps the ethical framework into something unrecognizable.

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo

Discendo Vox posted:

Mordin, here are some questions for you

1. Who is currently in the embassy?
2. Who was in the embassy previously?
3. How does the US determine who has legal control of assets held by a foreign state?
4. What is an embassy?
5. What did the US actually do with regard to the Venezuelan consulates and embassy?

6. What's the source you're citing here?
7. How are other sources covering the same events?
8. Is there corroboration for the specific claims made by the source you're using?
9. What does this source's profile image depict?

there hasn't been much mainstream coverage of the embassy, because it is genuinely embarrassing to the us establishment. what coverage there has been has been really low quality.

this is from wapo for instance, about an incident where a guaido supporter broke into the embassy and barricaded himself in for a few hours (trashing the room in the process) before the dc cops came in and hauled him off.

https://twitter.com/Marissa_Jae/status/1123699156869103623

now, there is video of this man in the embassy, and video of the secret service hauling him off (see thread below if you really care). in order to fake this, people would have had to impersonate federal agents while being watched by the secret service. the wapo reporter would rather ignore all video evidence to take the word of this man at face value.

https://twitter.com/RealAlexRubi/status/1123536909870010368

so in this instance, who is better, WaPo or alternative media?

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo

GreyjoyBastard posted:

lol apparently we transferred the embassy from ROC control to PRC control upon recognition and then set up separate Definitely Not An Embassy institutions between Taiwan and the US

edit: DC cops entered the embassy?! Violation of sovereignty! :argh:

the cops were probably invited in by one of the venezuelan governments. the question is which one (and if they did it at the behest of the protesters or the remnants of the maduro delegation, did they implicitly recognized the maduro government as legitimate owners of the embassy)?

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo

Discendo Vox posted:

The governing law is the 1961 Vienna Convention on diplomatic relations, subject to interpretation and caselaw (or equivalent precedent) in the "receiving state," the place where the embassy is. Both the receiving state and the sending state can unilaterally reject members of the mission, or the mission. An embassy is not "foreign territory," the Simpsons lied. Embassies and diplomatic staff just have specific, very strong protections under international law. This also comes with a lot of restrictions; under the scenario you describe, the receiving state would be obligated under Article 22 to protect the property and its functions.

In this case, Maduro terminated the embassy and all of Venezuela's consulates, so pretty much none of the normal protections apply - it's effectively just a piece of real estate owned by the Venezuelan state. Of course, that still makes it an asset, like the other ones we've discussed, albeit one with symbolic importance (also its Georgetown property value is really high, though nothing compared to some other DC embassies).

Additionally, the US rejected the credentials of the diplomatic staff, which is also something they can do unilaterally with any or no reason under the Convention at Article 9. Even if the embassy were still considered an embassy, the "protection force" couldn't be made up of US nationals under the convention.

None of the above law is some sort of weird calvinball interpretation of the law that only the US uses, it's how all such properties are governed. The Maduro regime gave access to "protection force" members (some of whom they've been shipping back and forth from Venezuela with their media teams). They've been holding press conferences since early April to english language coverage of the event via the same channels as always. It's been getting more publicity because Vecchio tried to give a speech out front yesterday.

if it is just a piece of property owned by maduro's government, why can't the maduro government authorize us citizens to reside there? they aren't diplomatic staff, but they should get the normal property protections.

also, i would argue that the former venezuelan embassy isn't being treated as just another piece of dc real estate, as the secret service are in charge. they are in charge of protecting embassies in the us, if the embassy had reverted to normal property the dc metro police would be heading things.

the root problem is that you can't have a comprehensible policy when there are two competing claims to government legitimacy. recognizing a government as legitimate that doesn't control a single acre of territory has led to this standoff.

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo

Discendo Vox posted:

If it's just a piece of property it's still a government asset in which case the same sovereignty recognition applies. If the opposition government goes through the process of reopening it (which I don't believe they've done yet because of the occupation), then the Article 22 obligation would still apply. I can't tell if it would apply in advance based on the convention, but the protesters' presence on the property would already be unlawful, same as if they occupied some random person's house.

There's a whole separate set of clauses that could also be invoked whereby the protesters are basically acting on the assumption that the property is still an embassy, in which case Maduro's closure would cause a new set of problems and let the US evict them.

Secret Service can still be involved without it being an embassy, but they are likely there because it was previously and will in the future function as an embassy property. DC Metro is also involved.

The root problem is that people are occupying the space and serving as human shields for the purpose of Maduro's propaganda.

Generally, I should note that I only knew like two thirds of this before I went and read a bunch of documentation of how the convention works this afternoon- I'm not trying to hold myself out as an international law expert, and it's possible I'm missing things. but (and I'm not referring to you specifically GoluboiOgon) "Lol the law doesn't matter the US just does whatever" isn't accurate, and framing it that way when consuming state media is a great way to get taken for a ride.

if the us can legally evict the protestors, why haven't they so far? now they seem to be stopping people from bringing food in, in an attempt to starve them out. (like they charged someone with assault for trying to throw bread into the embassy) if the cops felt they had a legal justification, why don't they just arrest everyone for trespassing? i have no idea about the legality, but the secret service is certainly not behaving like they have an ironclad legal basis on their side here.

calling non-violent protesters "human shields for propaganda" is certantly a take. were the montgomery sit ins also "human shields for soviet propaganda?" even if you disagree with the politics of their decision, they are risking arrest and assault of their own volition, they could walk out at any time. by calling them human shields, you deny these people any sort of agency, as if telesur was some sort of mind-control ray.

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo

Keeshhound posted:

Or, and stick with me here, we could do the barest minimum research and check his Wikipedia page

quote:

During events surrounding the 2002 Venezuelan coup d'état attempt, NPR said Lopez "orchestrated the public protests against President Hugo Chávez and played a central role in the citizen's arrest of Chavez's interior minister", Ramón Rodríguez Chacín. Lopez later tried to distance himself from that event, maintaining his actions were meant to protect Chacín from an angry mob.

love to protect government ministers by kidnapping them during a coup. even npr can't whitewash that bit away.

quote:

On 12 February 2014, López called on Venezuelans to peacefully protest against the Venezuelan government. The same day, Venezuelan prosecutors, after likening López and protesters to "Nazis", issued an arrest warrant for López on charges including instigation of delinquency, public intimidation, arson of a public building, damage to public property, severe injury, "incitement to riot", homicide, and terrorism.

The day after the warrant was issued, López addressed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro via Twitter, saying, "Don't you have the guts to arrest me? Or are you waiting for orders from Havana? I tell you, the truth is on our side."

On 18 February, López turned himself in to the Guardia Nacional (National Guard) in the presence of thousands of cheering supporters, who, like him, wore white as a symbol of nonviolence. He gave a short speech in which he said that he hoped his arrest would awaken Venezuela to the corruption and economic disaster caused by socialist rule. The only alternative to accepting arrest, he said, standing on a statue of Jose Marti, was to "leave the country, and I will never leave Venezuela!"

bold words from someone who just escaped arrest in order to hide in the spanish embassy.

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo

Kavros posted:

While I'm not exactly inclined to defend or lionize Lopez and will stay pretty neutral on him, I could absolutely say that Mein Kampf, as part of a larger philosophical study of all things involving authoritarian creep and the rise of militant or nationalistic strongman factions in a society, is pretty drat relevant these days and could absolutely be said to be relevant to living in the situation the PSUV has been putting Venezuela through for years. I would actually even find it more relevant if you lived in a country where nativist sectarian populism is steadily eroding legal norms in favor of authoritarian cult of personality figureheads and/or republics steadily disintegrating under the weight of increasingly moblike political factions with no intent on preserving democracy. Like if you happened to live in the United States, for instance. It would make so much sense to have that book in your library as an instructive insight into the gently caress is going on.

On top of that, I think anyone should be worried about even incidentally waltzing into the connotations of search and seizure of political activists by state agency (with a followup of attempting to use the materials found in such a manner to legitimize further action of a concerning nature). Like, just saying, this comes off like it's from the absolute wrong playbooks.

"search and seizure" of a political activist who was at the head of a failed coup attempt that led to 100 people getting hurt isn't some sort of repression, it would happen in literally any other state in the world. also, lopez is still free, so it's only really searching.

and lopez would have been better off reading literally any other autobiography or history if he really wanted to understand what happened in the 1930s. you can't even argue that it is hitler's own account of his rise to power, it was written before the nazis had any sort of serious control of the government.

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo
it's also a bad arguement because it assumes that americans should have no say in the foreign policy of their own government. if only "real" venezuelans can have opinions about what goes on in venezuela, why should americans be denied the opportunity to protest their own countries foreign policy? american taxpayer dollars are currently being wasted on this incredibly stupid multi-coup fiasco, and if there is military intervention, more us taxpayer dollars and us lives will be wasted. all of the billions spent on this cia boondoggle could have gone to fixing the roads, or funding schools, or healthcare; why shouldn't us citizens non-violently protest this gross mis-allocation of funds?

GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo
plus, do you really think the post-guaido privatizing of the mineral concerns and selling them to multi-national corporations will be better for the indigenous peoples? eric prince has already been angling to get his hands on mineral extraction rights across the world, do you think that the owner of the infamous blackwater mercenary group is the best person to protect the human rights of indigionous peoples?

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GoluboiOgon
Aug 19, 2017

by Nyc_Tattoo

Seraphic Sphere posted:

maduro hired erik prince??

no, but he's intimately involved with guaido now(probably trying to sell him some mercenaries). he made a proposal a few years ago to the trump administration that involved him taking over mining concerns in afganistan in exchange for his mercenaries taking control of the country, in a plan deliberately modeled on the east india company. he isn't an unlikely person to receive privatized mining companies/rights if guaido comes in power.

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