USPOL Nov: The vindication of Prester Jane by the narcissist Donald Trump

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USPOL Nov: The vindication of Prester Jane by the narcissist Donald Trump

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Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

iospace posted:

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/793544120379768832

Considering all we know how the gently caress is that even possible?

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 21:11

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# ¿ May 13, 2024 10:18

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

TyrantWD posted:

It will be Hillary's fault for not running a better campaign. They have underwhelmed on fundraising, GOTV, messaging, and in general have shown incredible complacency.

No they haven't?

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 21:49

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

U-DO Burger posted:

early voting turnout is higher than previous election cycles so I dunno what the hell you're going on about here

How much is that due to there being more early voting precincts?

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 22:16

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

How badly is Obama regretting his Comey appointment right about now?

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 22:24

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

canepazzo posted:

Some more Early Vote numbers for FL:

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/793569309255692289

Some more Early Vote numbers for FL:

quote:
Through Mon's votes, share of the FL electorate that is black (African American & Hispanic) is now 11.7%, and growing.

African American share was like 8 when in-person early voting started.

FL Hispanics are now closing in on being 14% of the electorate, driven by huge numbers of low propensity Hispanic Dems/NPA

51% of Hispanic Dems are either first time or 1 of 3 voters, and 57% of Hispanic NPAs. There is definitely a Hispanic surge happening.

Moreover, now almost 31% of all Dems voted are "low propensity" compared to about 25% of GOP, in real people, a 90K edge

But there are as many if not more Dems who voted in 2012 yet to vote than Republicans. And more Dems with VBM than Republicans...

And more "low propensity" Dems voting than GOP...and the electorate is trending more diverse than 2012...

This is all very good news yes? It seems that the Black vote is starting to catch up and the Hispanic vote is beating past results. Am I looking at this correctly?

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 23:10

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

nachos posted:

lol what the gently caress is this new FBI release

Wait what now?

# ¿ Nov 2, 2016 01:29

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

nimh posted:

Think its down to Colorado

Is this Karl Rove's map?

# ¿ Nov 2, 2016 15:57

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

Nonsense posted:

Donald Trump has literally no idea that a new accuser is about to surface

Hmm?

# ¿ Nov 2, 2016 20:33

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

Obama making a speech is amazing. :unsmith:

# ¿ Nov 2, 2016 21:31

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

canepazzo posted:

Note: these are from an HFA operator so they might be "skewed" so to speak, but still interesting figures.

quote:
quote:
OH: More than half of all votes have come in over the past week and more voters have cast ballots in person than at this point in 2012.
OH: In the last 7 days, early voting in person turnout outpaced the same seven days in Ohio in 2012 by about 30%.

FL: Over half a million African American voters have cast ballots so far which is ⅓ higher than at this point in 2012.
FL: Over 500k have voted in the Democratic stronghold of Miami-Dade Co, more than the total number who early voted during 2012.

NC: Dem counties surging - Durham outpacing '12 by 19%, Mecklenburg County, outpacing '12 by 6%, and Wake County outpacing '12 by 17%.
NC: Over 2m people have voted, up from this point in 2012. Yesterday, nearly 5k more AfAm voters cast ballots than the same day in '12

NV: Over half a million people have voted so far and turnout in Clark Co is up 17% compared to this point in 2012. Dems still outpacing GOP

WI: In fact, last week, the City of Madison - home to the University Of Wisconsin - broke its 2012 early vote record.
WI: early votes are coming from major Dem counties (Dane/Milwaukee) compared to the GOP strongholds (WOW counties) by a margin of 2-1.

Can we talk more about this? This seems like good news...

# ¿ Nov 2, 2016 22:48

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

Apraxin posted:

https://twitter.com/KNXCooper/status/793931635662041089?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
I would not like to be a news editor having to decide right the gently caress now whether to run with this or not.

How many of those journalists are actually from a major network or even an affiliate?

# ¿ Nov 2, 2016 22:54

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

Wyld Thang posted:

The GOP will have a willing partner in the White House for the first time in years.

Why would Hillary be a willing partner?

# ¿ Nov 2, 2016 23:13

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

Charlz Guybon posted:

Anything from the last 10 hours that I should be aryzing over?

There were good Florida/NC polls from both CNN and Quinipaic so no thankfully. There was a weird -3 Virginia poll from some random pollster but that goes against literally every other poll by a dozen points so I would throw it away.

# ¿ Nov 2, 2016 23:15

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

Covok posted:

drat, deplorables death threated their way out of a November surprise. Deplorable.

No one was going to cover it anyway.

# ¿ Nov 2, 2016 23:26

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

3 separate polls released today have Clinton up in Florida. The most recent one that has her down is from a new pollster called Remmington which is officially affiliated with the GOP and run by Ted Cruz's campaign manager.

# ¿ Nov 2, 2016 23:51

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

canepazzo posted:

If you got tired of state polls, here's a new national one:

https://twitter.com/ReutersPolitics/status/793951164597497856

E: without fail, one of the comments will be from a deplorable lamenting their "sampling D+8" skewing the poll and bla bla bla. Why's it always +8, never +7 or +18, always +8? Is it a Billmitchellism?

That's up 1 from the +5 poll from the start of the week so it's totally back to pre-Comey. Nice.

# ¿ Nov 3, 2016 00:09

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

Arrgytehpirate posted:

How do I even begin to respond to this? Poster is a 30 y/o vet.

Don't bother.

# ¿ Nov 3, 2016 00:18

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

For whatever reason Nate's model seems to put a lot of stock in the belief that as goes Missouri so goes the nation. Missouri polls regularly drown out polls from Florida and North Carolina.

# ¿ Nov 3, 2016 18:39

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

Yay

https://twitter.com/jeremybird/status/794233700279955456

# ¿ Nov 3, 2016 18:59

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

Suffolk NH poll has them tied which matches those other lousy polls today. What the gently caress happened, Hillary was up near double digits for MONTHS there.

# ¿ Nov 3, 2016 19:15

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

BI NOW GAY LATER posted:

Also NH has historically not been polled well + early voting in NH looks fine for HRC.

NH doesn't have early voting.

# ¿ Nov 3, 2016 19:38

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

theflyingorc posted:

Where's the New Hampshire early voting data?

It doesn't exist.

# ¿ Nov 3, 2016 19:40

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

Did a poll really come out with Hillary and Trump tied in Colorado? Was it just including people who haven't voted yet?

# ¿ Nov 3, 2016 21:06

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

emdash posted:

44C-37T in already-voted 4-way poll; 45-38 in already-voted 2-way poll. 39-39 and 42C-41T in the "haven't voted yet" version of each, respectively

So Clinton should run away with it. Great.

# ¿ Nov 3, 2016 21:12

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

Samuel Clemens posted:

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/794309382246977540?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Obama had a 21-point lead with Florida Hispanics in 2012.

And Hispanic turnout is way up this year according to early voting. So Florida can secure the future of the Republic.

# ¿ Nov 4, 2016 00:10

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

Dr Christmas posted:

Some of the "bad news" we got from Florida this week was that while Hispanic and black early votes were up at least as high as last election, the white vote was also up high enough that it made the black vote look lower. Did I get that right?

Is there anything to indicate that those were Trump voters who showed up despite his anemic GotV efforts, or if they're white people who actually showed up for Clinton, or is it impossible to tell until the election is over?

IIRC the white vote is up but the Hispanic vote is WAAAY up.

# ¿ Nov 4, 2016 00:20

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

Samuel Clemens posted:

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/794334333519663104?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Those rolling dates are finally 100% post Comey bomb. So that is a terrific number.

# ¿ Nov 4, 2016 03:15

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

I am confident in saying that when early voting closes in Florida on Sunday Hillary is going to have an unassaliable lead there. Apparently this dude on Maddow tonight said that up to 70% of ALL Florida votes will be in by the end of Sunday.

# ¿ Nov 4, 2016 03:24

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

PerniciousKnid posted:

Why assume a regression to the mean instead of a continuing tend? If there's any mean regression, I would think it's toward 50/50, as people's memories fade after whatever news events previously boosted Clinton's numbers.

Because we are currently experiencing the opposite, people's memories are fading after some news events that hurt Clinton's numbers. So she is trending back up toward the mean.

# ¿ Nov 4, 2016 17:29

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

As far as slavery goes you really couldn't do better than being a slave in the Roman Empire. American slavery was much worse by nearly every metric.

# ¿ Nov 4, 2016 19:54

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

Spacebump posted:

Don't more people vote on election day and isn't Trump expected to attract a lot of voters that don't normally vote? People that don't normally vote but decide to randomly are more likely to vote on election day.

There's absolutely no evidence to support the Trump campaigns belief that they are attracting previously uncommitted voters. In fact we KNOW that Hillary is bringing in tons of previously inactive Hispanics so new voters are going to help her more than him.

Also Colorado is looking strong.

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/794627523636318208

# ¿ Nov 4, 2016 20:56

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

It's Nates own fault that his model is so temperamental when he happily includes bullshit polls from people like Remington which knowingly don't act in good faith so as to gently caress everything up. He believes that all data is useful data but that seems really naive.

# ¿ Nov 4, 2016 21:44

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

canepazzo posted:

ABC sprung a new tracking poll by surprise, now 47-43 Clinton from 47-44 earlier today.

https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/794668933710249984

So how much does this decrease Hillarys chances on 538.

# ¿ Nov 4, 2016 23:40

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

I've honestly put some real thought as to the implications of tension between the West and Russia as it would relate to EVE Online.

# ¿ Nov 5, 2016 00:04

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

Charlz Guybon posted:

Any new early voting news?

Both Nevada and Colorado are all but won already.

# ¿ Nov 5, 2016 00:16

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

Anyone else kind of relieved we made it through today without some type of Comey bullshit? Remember that dropped last Friday afternoon.

# ¿ Nov 5, 2016 00:21

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

Bloops Crusts posted:

Ominous state polls for Clinton out of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire. If those should fall, and if Florida doesn't come through, early vote leads in Nevada and North Carolina won't necessarily matter. Firewall looking weaker by the day.

Trump's within striking distance. All it'll take is another shoe to drop: another terrorist attack, another FBI kerfuffle, another major revelation from the Wikileaks mystery box. Don't assume GOTV will offset a rising tide for Trump.

You hosed up, to be an effective concern troll you need to at least feign concern, not just start jacking off about your fantasy.

Shimrra Jamaane fucked around with this message at 00:27 on Nov 5, 2016

# ¿ Nov 5, 2016 00:24

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

Covok posted:

Are we aryzing? Should we be?

It was a great polling day despite Nate Silver literally tweeting to the contrary. He counted bad polls in Missouri, Utah, and Kansas as more impactful than good polls in Florida, NC, PA, and WI.

# ¿ Nov 5, 2016 00:40

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

Bloops Crusts posted:

There's a huge danger in a lot of these polls in how low the decided vote is. Take the Detroit Free Press poll out of Michigan:

http://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2016/11/04/free-press-poll-donald-trump-gains-hillary-clinton-race-michigan-tightens/93287658/

42-38 is a horrible number in Michigan. That's a firewall state. That's supposed to be blue wall. But the fact that it's only 42 makes it a hell of a lot more dangerous than if it were 48-44. You may say, "Not a lot of those undecideds are actually going to vote" -- but it won't take much to upset the apple cart if there's a late break toward Trump. That, I would say, is an ominous poll.

Source: me, myself, and I. I'm not channeling Nate Silver here, I'm not parroting whatever article he put up on 538. It's a simple fact.

Michigan is 100% going blue good god you are nuts.

# ¿ Nov 5, 2016 00:42

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# ¿ May 13, 2024 10:18

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

Covok posted:

Why? Those were red states?

Because Nates model puts more stock in "trends" seen in these red states than polls from actual important states.

# ¿ Nov 5, 2016 00:46

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USPOL Nov: The vindication of Prester Jane by the narcissist Donald Trump

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