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Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

Al Borland Corp. posted:

Yeah, it's just sad to see Democrats completely missing the point and the actual problem with the Russia stuff and jumping to dumb conspiracy theories that make people take the real issues less seriously.


This is from a few pages back but honestly it's pretty damning for the Democrats:



Reading about Trump's antics and posting here it's easy to start thinking that Republican are generally idiots and Democrats the adults in the room. It's good to be reminded that as a group Democrats are probably just as dumb. Trump is the idiot king America deserves.

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Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

evilweasel posted:

I view that as a question thats technically precise, but easy to misread. And when you look at the fact that the survey had about 200 questions, it's real easy to misread. If I was taking that survey there's a reasonable chance I'd say yes without really thinking about it, because I think Russia's actions affected the vote tallies but not by hacking the machines, they affected them through their propaganda and email hacking. If i stopped to think about it I'd probably realize what they were asking, but I could easily screw it up.

I'm not sure I agree, a reasonable number of Democrat respondents were able to say they thought the Russian state released the DNC emails to help Trump get elected but didn't think they altered vote tallies. I suppose a push-poll might try to make it easy to make the kind of mistake you mention, but my understanding is that The Economist/Yougov polls are generally regarded as fair.

On further thought a 200 question survey is kind of ridiculous, there's no way you're getting reliable results after question 20 or so.

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

TheKingofSprings posted:

6 million fewer people voted for Clinton than voted for Obama in 2012.

Those 6 million people staying home or whatever it was they did instead of vote most certainly did shape the outcome of the election. They're not as responsible as Trump's own voter base but whether it was because they thought Clinton would sweep or they just didn't like her they share some partial responsibility.

How many of those were in swing states though? In the electoral college system a lot of those people would have been completely correct to conclude their vote was irrelevant.

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

PST posted:

It's just a primary etc. etc. but that seems to be very telling of voter engagement or lack therof.

I'm getting flashbacks to the 2016 presidential primaries, where the much higher than normal turnout for the Republican contests was hand-waved away by very knowledgeable people. Don't you know that the number of primary voters isn't correlated with turnout during the election?

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

The flaw is assuming parents even read to their children anymore. Maybe try an app?

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

Are there any anonymous WH sources describing Trump's reactions while watching the Comey hearing? I need those more than I thought I would.

edit: Did he ball his fists and scream? I need to know.

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

At least we can all agree it's good that the shooter wasn't muslim. I don't see the GOP supporting a travel ban for angry white guys with guns.

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

Citizen's United probably needs to be addressed somehow as well if you want to fix American politics, but if I understand correctly that's probably a non-starter without a constitutional amendment. I don't think Americans are aware of just how disproportionate the amount of money is spent on American political campaigns and advertising. The last time I checked spending in recent American federal elections was roughly an order of magnitude higher per capita than comparable elections in other Western countries (Canada, the UK etc).

Before you bring up the tale of Trump vs Jeb to argue that campaign spending doesn't matter anymore, keep in mind that Trump received a ridiculous amount of effectively free advertising in 2016 from the idiot major networks. Most races don't become a media circus and the fact remains that money likely equals votes.

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

Discendo Vox posted:

Each of the words I mentioned has a line of caselaw as long as your arm litigating its definition and ramifications for campaign finance, even just at the federal level. It's not a simple or straightforward area.

Other western countries manage to do these things. As mentioned before the US spends (very) roughly 10 times as much on federal elections than Canada, which is outrageous. I do agree it's not simple or easy, much like fixing America's broken healthcare system.

edit: oops ~10 times per capita

Nocturtle fucked around with this message at 02:35 on Jun 15, 2017

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

HappyHippo posted:

Well the US has 10 times the population of Canada.

Actually are you sure about that figure? I would have thought we spent less than that up here....

Sorry I meant ~10 times per capita (!).

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

Discendo Vox posted:

I am not aware of any countries that entirely restrict political campaign finance to public funds. The ones that have public candidate financing have either a party-heavy parallel finance structure, or PACs like the united states. This is what's at issue under litigation over "private" and "use".

From Wikipedia article on 2015 Canadian federal election :

Wikipedia posted:

Registered third parties[edit]
A person or group must register as a third party immediately after incurring election advertising expenses totalling $500 or more.[86] There are strict limits on advertising expenses, and specific limits that can be incurred to promote or oppose the election of one or more candidates in a particular electoral district. There were 112 registered third parties in the 2015 election.[87] There was a $150,000 election advertising expenses limit. Of that amount, no more than $8,788 could be incurred to promote or oppose the election of one or more candidates in a particular electoral district.[87]

So in Canada at least even private citizens and groups can only spend so much on election-related advertising.

edit: This is on top of party spending limits of course.

Nocturtle fucked around with this message at 02:46 on Jun 15, 2017

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

boner confessor posted:

i dont know why you aren't grasping this. the world as it turns out is not fair, and if you go to a horrible place and break the law really bad things may happen to you no matter how unfair that is

Also don't be surprised if you're an attractively dressed woman attending a party and end up sexually assaulted. The world isn't fair, deal with it.

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

boner confessor posted:

do you actually think this is a good argument or are you just mad at me for saying things you disagree with

To be clear I'm trying to show how your argument is unconvincing by applying it to a more familiar situation, where it's obvious that it's not fair to blame the victim of unjust treatment even if they did arguably did something to cause it. Don't worry, I'm not cross with you.

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

The hourly WaPo revelation and twitter rants are fun, but keep in mind that Trump won last November and he won completely. He got everything he wanted winning the highest office in the land. That it's making him desperately unhappy is irrelevant, he was going to be unhappy anyway. All the small digs about his twitter bots and videotapes highlights the extent of his victory as we're forced to waste our time and attention on an undeserving narcissist. He'll likely die clutching a 2016 electoral college map and honestly believing he was one the best Presidents ever.

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

There Bias Two posted:

Who cares what he thinks while taking his final breath? He'll always be delusional, so it doesn't really matter.

People are breathlessly waiting on his every tweet, so it's hard to claim people don't care what he thinks. It's a sad situation.

Clearly he needs to see a therapist, but he got a lifetime's worth of validation from the American public last Nov so good luck getting him to go.

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

Oxxidation posted:

I said "as we know it." Most likely scenario is that humanity will, after an enormous death count and widespread societal collapse, reset to a miserable subsistence lifestyle and stay there until extinction, because we won't have time to get back up to the level of development we have now.

I don't know about extinction but there's a good argument that if global society collapses now starting over again in the future will be very difficult due our using up all the easily accessible coal/phosphates/oil.

BlueberryCanary posted:

Question is, what countermeasures? And are they actually feasible to implement?

They're only borderline feasible and require wise leadership + rapid international co-ordination to have any chance of success *world's 2nd largest carbon emitter elects Donald Trump*

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

business hammocks posted:

The human race shouldn't rise again because it's a proven failure. Not merely an evolutionary dead end that destroyed itself, but also an extinction event.

Pellisworth posted:

e: if you really want to get into handwaving and speculation, we could well face another bottleneck like in the last ice age where the human population is dramatically reduced. We could literally force ourselves to evolve.

To be clear, humans are possibly an evolutionary dead end due to the obstetrical dilemma. Head size is ultimately constrained by the female pelvis, and will remain that way so long as people want to walk upright. Humans probably can't get too much smarter than we are now ie just smart enough to invent capitalism and cause a planetary extinction event but not smart enough to prevent it. Life might find a way, otherwise ever-craftier raccoons are the best hope for future intelligent life.

The last real opportunity to prevent serious global warming was lost with the overall failure of the Kyoto accord. Trump's election is just more evidence that we probably never had a chance.

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

Pellisworth posted:

e: also, Neanderthals had bigger brains than us. I don't think brain volume is gonna save us.

I don't see neanderthals running around causing global climate collapse. Maybe a little extra gray matter could have helped.

Arglebargle III posted:

I guess your mom has narrow hips because Trump was hardly inevitable.

Nice.

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

If the US went all-in on nuclear overnight and achieved per-capita emissions on par with France it would buy another ~2 years before hitting the magic 2C threshold for global carbon emissions . This is actually quite a bit of time and would be preferable to the status-quo, but underscores the fact that we're definitely going to blow past that threshold sometime in the next 20 years. No matter what the US does individually the future of climate change depends crucially on how China and India develop in the next few decades.

This is is why I claim Trump withdrawing from the Paris agreement is the single most-damaging act of his presidency to date. It undermined the already weak effort to co-ordinate an international response to climate change and minimize growth in 3rd world carbon emissions.

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

Skippy Granola posted:

Is it typical for Americans to go uninsured and then try to get insurance once they get sick or injured?

When I first moved to the US from socialist Canada I was astounded at the number of acquaintances and co-workers who happily admitted to not having health insurance. Just walking and driving around without any kind of health insurance like it was normal and not insane.

edit: This was before the ACA passed of course. I never asked what their plan was if they got sick and needed treatment.

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

Trump was at his best tearing apart the other monsters in the GOP primary. I welcome this return to form. Too bad he's still the actual president of the USA, you dummies.

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

Charlz Guybon posted:

China is building up its naval power. Ships take so long to build that you have to start to counter a decade in advance. The naval build up Trump wants is literally the only thing I like that he's done.

If it weren't for Putin’s bond villain antics, China would clearly be our biggest rival.

To make matters worse Russia is also ramping up production of ironsides and is expected to have four additional fleets within a decade. The US really needs to increase battleship production if it wants to maintain the strategic two-fold naval advantage.

Nocturtle fucked around with this message at 00:07 on Jul 23, 2017

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

I'm guessing Trump supporters just ignore this feud with Sessions. There's no way it doesn't make Trump look spiteful or weak. If he has such a problem with Sessions he should just fire him, not complain on Twitter.

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

Mustached Demon posted:

He realized his career ends after his AG job ends.

He's over 70. He's only got 6 years left, does he really want to spend half that time getting the Jeb Bush treatment?

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007



These are the federal judicial positions left vacant because the Senate refused to vote or confirm most of Obama's nominees after the GOP gained a majority. Even Trump's minor accomplishments are the result of the GOP shutting down the Obama admin. However my main reason for posting this is to point out how the GOP Senate's failure to do it's constitutionally defined job had essentially no long-term political repercussions. Fox news even feels comfortable enough to portray the outcome positively ie look at all these appointments the hard-working Republican President is making. This is a problem when the voting public is supposed to be the final check on this kind of behavior. The Garland nomination was just the highest profile case and it's already down the memory hole.

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

Boon posted:

Got buried somewhere last night, but far more important than a bunch of white supremacists staging a rally (which are dwarfed by the white supremacist rallies staged by the Trump campaign) is Trump making some big declaration Monday about investigating Chinese trade practices and the possible subsequent trade war.

Buckle up folks, because if you think 1-2k fascists are bad, just wait till we hit that recession.

Trump doesn't have any real power at this point. He's already done all he can via unilateral executive order and congress + the surviving parts of the federal govt are essentially ignoring him. He isn't competent enough to organize an investigation into trade practices even if he wanted to, and he doesn't because he doesn't want anything aside from attention and praise. Stop treating his pronouncements as anything other than him trying to get more attention, the whole spectacle is pathetic. If you're still confused consider his rhetoric regarding NK against the complete inaction of any branch of the military.

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007


It's amazing how the various regressive reactionary groups in America are competing for publicity (and to murder people). It looks like the Nazis win this news cycle, but the Bundy/sovereign citizen trials are still grinding on.

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

Arturo Ui posted:

So haven't seen anyone post this...Trump's approval has gone up 3 points in Gallup the last 2 days. I assume all of the Charlottesville fallout is baked into these results so...nothing matters?

The poll margin of error is +/-4%. It's not a statistically significant increase. Ideally Americans collectively figure out what a MOE is in the next couple of years because people breathlessly dissecting 1% fluctuations in polls last presidential election was sad.

edit: Oops MOE is actually 3% not 4% the point is the same.

Nocturtle fucked around with this message at 21:53 on Aug 17, 2017

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

Hellblazer187 posted:

I think sometimes this thread is too hard on Covok, and plus it's weird to see the verb Arzying replaced.

Arzy was right.

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

Hellblazer187 posted:

IIRC Arzy flipped out about every minor poll movement in 2008, scared Obama would lose. So he was wrong about being freaked out, cause Obama won. Then I think he got some fancy high finance job and became a Romney supporter for 2012. So he was wrong for doing that too. Although if he really made enough money to throw all his ideals away maybe he made some OK university choices.

I meant that the main takeaway from 2016 was that none of us were Arzying enough. Maybe the world would be a better place if there'd been a little more Arzying.

Also to be honest I'd probably take a highly remunerated finance job if offered.

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

QuoProQuid posted:

I'm not sure why I would flee to another country when I can work to make the one I live in right now better.

And, as with every one of these discussions, people tend to look at other countries with rose-tinted glasses. I'm not going to try and rank the United States vis-à-vis its European counterparts, but the European Union is far from a perfect place.

As an actual foreigner I want to assure Americans your health care system is an unfair byzantine catastrophe. And I have GOOD insurance.

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

empty whippet box posted:

Was he really a genius at neurosurgery though? Just because you have a doctorate in something doesn't mean you're a genius at it. You'd think it does, but it really doesn't.

I don't think he has a PhD, just an MD. This isn't to say PhDs are geniuses, the only real requirement is bloody-minded tolerance for tedium.

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

Technically true but how many poor kids are getting in and have the logistical support to go there?

This applies to post-secondary education generally. I support free tuition for public universities (without any ridiculous 10 hour weekly work requirement), but it's true that it would effectively be a massive subsidy to the upper classes.

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

No, but any sensitive person has flags automatically attached to their files that trigger from just searching for them.

At the State Department, we had someone get escorted out of the building and fired in less than 1 minute and 30 seconds after they tried to look up Dick Cheney's passport photo.

So do it from your co-worker's workstation geez. Govt types have no imagination.

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

Ice Phisherman posted:

Forgiveness is one of the best parts and simultaneously worst parts of Christianity. Atheists for instance don't really have a mechanism for forgiveness so if you gently caress up you're a fuckup forever until you die and likely everyone forgets you existed in 100 years let alone 100 trillion years as the stars go cold and meaning is no-where to be found. Christians forgive someone and it's cool, but some get forgiven when they're obviously not repentant. Looking at you, Jim Bakker, you piece of poo poo. You and people like you.

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

Like loving clockwork the usual suspects start beating the nihilistic drum as soon as they heard that the bill isn't DoA.

The bill has a chance at passing sure like it always has, that doesn't loving mean that it will or that it's even likely.

Honestly it's been surprising that a bill hasn't been passed yet. Or more accurately it's evidence that the modern Republican party is fractious and intellectually bankrupt, as if they'd been serious about repealing Obamacare they might have worked out a replacement any time over the last 7 years. However the Republicans control Congress and the Presidency and it's still up in the air whether they will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

Blindeye posted:

Structural engineers will be mobilized to tag buildings (green for safe/immediate reoccupancy, yellow for limited access to collect possessions, red for unsafe) to help with recovery. Typically, a large earthquake hitting a major city with modern building codes like Mexico city will see ~5-10% of its buildings suffer major, irreparable damage, with less completely collapsing. Most loss of life in the past came from fires or design flaws rather than things out of our control, and recent changes to building codes have dramatically increased survival chances.

I've always wondered how NYC would fare in a major earthquake. I'm guessing the skyscrapers with brick cladding from the 1930s in midtown Manhattan would probably bury anyone in the streets at the time even if the building itself didn't collapse.

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007


That's very clear typing for 22 shots of vodka, there's even capitalization. He could put at least a little thought into this.

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

It seems like people need to relearn what speculative bubbles are again which means it's probably about time for the stock market to crash. The problem with the modern stock market is it's really the only option for long-term retirement savings, so just throw your money on that pile.

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Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

spunkshui posted:

Asked by reporters aboard Air Force One on Wednesday night about the wall, the president offered several perplexing new details about his plans and insisted that he was “not joking” about adding solar panels, a proposal he earnestly suggested would help cover the project’s estimated $21.6 billion cost. “There is a chance that we can do a solar wall,” Trump said. “We have major companies looking at that. Look, there’s no better place for solar than the Mexico border—the southern border. And there is a very good chance we can do a solar wall, which would actually look good. But there is a very good chance we could do a solar wall.”

Trump went on to say that the wall needs one thing: transparency. “You have to be able to see through it,” he explained. “In other words, if you can’t see through that wall—so it could be a steel wall with openings, but you have to have openings because you have to see what’s on the other side of the wall.”

The wall needs to be see-through, the president continued, because drug dealers may otherwise throw large bags of drugs over the wall to the other side, and hit innocent passers-by. “As horrible as it sounds, when they throw the large sacks of drugs over, and if you have people on the other side of the wall, you don’t see them—they hit you on the head with 60 pounds of stuff? It’s over,” he added. “As crazy as that sounds, you need transparency through that wall. But we have some incredible designs.”

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/07/trump-transparent-border-wall-falling-drugs-mexico

Rising life expectancy and decreasing fertility is increasing the overall average age of the electorate. Increasingly voters will prefer candidates as senile and unhealthy (and racist) as themselves. Trump's muddled incoherent thinking isn't interpreted as a sign of dementia but a character trait with which they can identify.

Seriously though I had to check if this was satire. What a mess.

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