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What is the best flav... you all know what this question is:
This poll is closed.
Labour 907 49.92%
Theresa May Team (Conservative) 48 2.64%
Liberal Democrats 31 1.71%
UKIP 13 0.72%
Plaid Cymru 25 1.38%
Green 22 1.21%
Scottish Socialist Party 12 0.66%
Scottish Conservative Party 1 0.06%
Scottish National Party 59 3.25%
Some Kind of Irish Unionist 4 0.22%
Alliance / Irish Nonsectarian 3 0.17%
Some Kind of Irish Nationalist 36 1.98%
Misc. Far Left Trots 35 1.93%
Misc. Far Right Fash 8 0.44%
Monster Raving Loony 49 2.70%
Space Navies Party 39 2.15%
Independent / Single Issue 2 0.11%
Can't Vote 188 10.35%
Won't Vote 8 0.44%
Spoiled Ballot 15 0.83%
Pissflaps 312 17.17%
Total: 1817 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Was Theresa May actually out campaigning or anything during that debate?

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Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

18-24 year olds are polling like 70% Labour, and the next age group is also pretty heavily Labour. This thread is about what you'd expect, the only age group with a lot of Tories is 65+ and they don't post on the internet that much.

Irony Be My Shield fucked around with this message at 10:16 on Jun 1, 2017

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

No, article 50 can be reversed. But it's not a politically viable thing to do.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Pissflaps posted:

It's difficult to take YouGov's constituency modelling seriously when you see examples of its output such as this:

https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/870301328374935552
It's not claiming to predict every consituency correctly - they obviously didn't have the resources to do a significant sample in every area. Rather it is meant to model the overall result.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

If the methodology is solid some will be wrong in Con favour, others in Lab favour. It should balance out to give a confidence interval for the overall result. It's an interesting approach, and one that I think is worth pursuing because as you've said national vote share is meaningless.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Boaty McBoatface won.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

I thought we already had insider info on the dementia tax policy - it was thrown in at a late stage by May and one of her advisors without any real vetting due to her dictatorial style.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

I think it's a reasonable point. People try to push the idea that the fox hunting ban was about punishing posh people, but the truth is we'd never allow the working class to do the same thing and indeed the bloodsports they used to participate in were banned long ago.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

The bottom seems to have really fallen out of May's personal popularity. You didn't have to watch the debate or even read any analysis of it to get the main story: the woman who spent all campaign calling herself strong chickened out of it. I imagine there's still some more Labour swing due on that.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Grim4Corbyn got shared around a fair amount and may have got some young people to register.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

mediadave posted:

Social Justice is great and something we must all work towards, but student politics has always been a dumpster fire and this generation have the misfortune of having their silliness youtubed and tumblr'd for all to see.
It's also nowhere near as big an election issue as it is in the states. There's been very little of it in the campaign, other than Farron's bizarre homophobia being brought forward a few times.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

The only relevant story is that May chickened out having an actual debate.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

I thought his Hamas answer was good. You don't make peace with the people you like, you make it with your enemies.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Corbyn is too honest for his own good sometimes. Just say you'd retaliate with a heavy heart, not like anyone would be alive to call you out on it if you don't.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

The nukes thing might not be as bad as it looks. 50% of the public do support keeping trident but some of them would probably be put off by the clear bloodlust shown by the audience and accept Corbyn's refusal to partake. The woman at the end did get a good reception afterall.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

It's also pretty much the same story that came out of the Paxman interview and I don't think that was too damaging in the end.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Darth Walrus posted:

That means that if Labour are smart and lucky, they can bury it altogether. Especially since it's being treated as a draw, and those are boring.
The thing that they should hammer home is the 'Theresa May is a coward' angle. She didn't show up to the leader's debate, she ducked out of Women's Hour and she imposed this bizarre format on the show to ensure she'd never have an actual discussion with Corbyn. There's no way you can claim to be stronger than someone when you keep running from them like this.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Corbyn stressed that he would keep trident and use it to negotiate multilateral arms reductions. I think Corbyn's approach is more likely to prevent nuclear war than jacking off about how you're going to first strike millions of civilians off the face of the earth.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

He said he'd decide based on the situation at the time. He didn't say he'd never use them.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Trin Tragula posted:

I'm absolutely amazed that there are people in here who are seriously making the argument that because Corbyn didn't explicitly say "I will not use nuclear weapons under any circumstances", this somehow preserves a haze of uncertainty around the situation that might be useful for the purposes of MAD. This is the most unconvincing argument I can possibly think of and you all look like a bunch of twerps who can't see your own hand in front of your face.

It's Jeremy Corbyn we're talking about here. It's patently obvious that the only reason he doesn't openly say "won't do it" is because it's politically unviable. He joined CND in 1966 and was a vice-chair before all this leadership nonsense started. If anyone's intelligence assessment of his position doesn't consist of some variation on "He is a lifelong unilateralist who would disarm unilaterally if he thought it was politically viable, and will never authorise the use of Britain's nuclear weapons under any forseeable circumstances", then the officer who wrote it should be sacked and so should anyone who ever hired or promoted them, because they're clearly a complete buffoon.

If I were planning a nuclear attack on a Corbyn-led UK, I wouldn't be worrying about whether he might press the button after all; I'd be worrying about the possibility that my first strike would take him out, or otherwise cause him to be replaced by someone who would press the button, or that the submarine commander would find a way to retaliate on his own initative.
Or that one of the UK's many nuclear allies would retaliate. So in other words it wouldn't matter at all.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

I don't think not wanting to kill millions of civilians in an act that would dwarf the impact of every terrorist atrocity in history is weird.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Baron Corbyn posted:

Not quite...


turnout in the referendum for 18-24 year olds was 63%, please vote and go do GOTV stuff if you are able.
Note that that's lower than youth turnout was in 2010. It's not implausible at all unless you're one of the pollsters who believes nothing can change from the 2015 election.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

It's not that the IRA and nuke stuff didn't damage Corbyn, it's just that it's already factored into public opinion. The IRA stuff was pushed constantly over the last few weeks and the nuke stuff actually came up in last week's interview in almost exactly the same form. I don't see why the same thing happening again would sway those who weren't already swayed last time.

Irony Be My Shield fucked around with this message at 14:19 on Jun 3, 2017

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

I think it was more complacency and trying to run up the score rather than secure the states she needed to win. She won the popular vote, and I think if she targeted campaign resources better she could have won the election.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

The Banksy thing doesn't seem to have made any significant news outlets yet. If it does it will probably have a "this is really illegal don't do it" rider attached in the article.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

ronya posted:

how so? The EC explicitly warned GiveYourVote for this. The relevant bit of legislation goes


It doesn't have to be someone else
If that's how you're interpreting that line then wouldn't that make it illegal to say who you voted for in any context?

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Is that right? Someone said the same thing about the Yougov poll and it wasn't true. This table implies they're using a youth turnout of 50%, similar to Yougov.
https://twitter.com/Ian_M_Scott/status/871098169391755269

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

The polls in this election are all pretty experimental and it remains to be seen which (if any) of the methods are actually accurate.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

jabby posted:

I guess the main takeaway message is that Labour has lost some of the momentum it's had recently, although doesn't seem to have fallen back.

Potential upside? The best poll for Labour was the only one conducted entirely today, and also specifically said the debate was good for Labour.
The other upside is that we've had a poll that isn't just "Labour are doing better but will still lose", it's "if this happens Corbyn will probably be Prime Minister". It's possible for Labour to win, we need to work hard to deliver its vote.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

The Run, Hide, Tell thing implies there might be a shooter in Vauxhall? There doesn't seem to be any information about that one yet.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

I'm sure it wouldn't have gone worse if the 3 attackers had guns.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Yeah Theresa May was explicitly pushing Conservative manifesto pledges like her Orwellian internet plans in that speech (whrn we don't even know if that had anything to do with the attack). It's disgusting and I hope she's called out for it.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Ora Tzo posted:

Police state Britain, chilling stuff.
Everything will be recorded but there will be no police officers around to actually act on anything they gather

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Verizian posted:

So the police in London called out May as a liar on sky news.
What did he say?

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

blunt posted:

It was absolutely a political speech, but I'm not sure any of it counted as new policy? The internet stuff for example was already in their manifesto. Plus suspending the campaign is completely informal - there's no legal basis behind it.
It's not illegal but she should be constantly called out for trying to silence the opposition by agreeing to suspend campaigning while promoting Tory pledges.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

I would respect it if May said 'Actually we should continue campaigning, we can't let them disrupt election week' but she is being dishonest by agreeing and then immediately breaking a political ceasefire.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

GaussianCopula posted:

Whoops?

What are you implying? That the police used excessive force when they shot the three terrorists who where stabbing people all over the place?
I think he's implying that they were mistaken in shooting the other, non-terrorist guy.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Yeah the shoot to kill policy that Corbyn was criticising is nothing to do with how you stop people who are presenting an active threat.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

goddamnedtwisto posted:

I should probably feel guilty about it, but I am sort of amused by some little south London scrote picking entirely the wrong night to play the big man.
We should remember the real victims of this attack - honest, hardworking British criminals who commit violence for personal gain or pride.

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Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

The Insect Court posted:

They buy tanks that go to sit in a warehouse out in a desert and rust, and warplanes that actually get used because it's harder to stage a coup with an air force.


It's not that I disagree with this stance but I do find it an amusing irony that the thread consensus has moved from "It's the fault of our foreign policy, innit?" :jihad: to "They're apocalyptic genocidal cultists who can't be reasoned with, only destroyed!" :kingsley:. Doesn't seem as if you can have both be true.
Our foreign policy left a power vacuum which they exploited.

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