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Al-Saqr posted:so here's some interesting news, the police state oval office who ran against Morsi in the only free election egypt ever enjoyed, Ahmad Shafik, is being held captive in the Emirates and is being banned from traveling to egypt after he announced he'd like to run for president. Sisi is more scared of the Mubaraks and anyone associated with them than he is of the MB, salafists or liberals, because they still enjoy popular support. It's why a court ruled Alaa and Gamal Mubarak couldn't run for office for a period of four years, and why Shafik has been in hiding in the UAE ever since.
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Nov 30, 2017 09:17
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Egypt will be holding its next presidential election in a month. It'll be the fairest election in the country's history, as Sisi is the only candidate on the ballot. As for the other candidates: Ahmed Shafik: Mubarak's former PM and the losing candidate in the 2012 election; threatened and kicked out of the country for voicing his intention to run in the election. Sami Anan: Former chief of staff of the Egyptian military, second hand man in the SCAF which ruled Egypt till Morsi's election; military issued a statement condemning his candidacy and arrested him two days ago. Khaled Ali: Civil rights lawyer that successfully sued the presidency over the islands sold to Saudi Arabia, vilified in the media till he backed off his candidacy today.
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Jan 24, 2018 22:30
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Volkerball posted:Morsi himself came to power because of the military. They distanced themselves from Mubarak and came out in favor of the protesters, which was a huge reason the revolution in Egypt was relatively painless. At that point, Egypt was already at the mercy of the military, and they had sided with democracy. While I have no doubt that Sisi and co were pulling strings near the end to foster as much discontent as possible (~the biggest protests in human history~), it was clear to me at the time Morsi had lost the public to a degree that made it really unlikely he was going to be able to keep things together until the end of his term. Sisi's popularity is overstated. He is constantly ridiculed, enjoys no popular support and is stringing along because: A - The extremely strong backing of the Saudis. Not without cost, as seen with the island affair. B - His ability to co-opt the military into his propaganda efforts, to the point where to oppose Sisi is to oppose our great and strong military. C - The complete control over state institutions and the blackballing of any dissenting opinions, in media, press or online. D - The lack of any viable alternatives, a symptom of C. E - The simple realization that if things are this bad economically when the country is ruled by the military, any further turbulence will do nothing but eat into your declining ability to support your family or your future. It's depressing, but simple. Freedom is nothing when you can't feed your children.
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Feb 15, 2018 21:06
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Saladman posted:So tons of offices and schools are getting a full week of holiday next week in Cairo (probably other cities too) for the election in Egypt. Kind of surprising as it seems like that would push voting numbers down even further as tons of people will go on holiday to the coasts, but what do I know. I guess one benefit is that it pushes the mood more towards festivity than apprehension, which might be the idea? Getting holidays way outweighs the small risk of a terrorist attack. Are you in Cairo currently? The posters are egregious, especially in Maadi - not usually an easy to navigate neighbourhood, but with all the posters every square is indistinguishable from the next.
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Mar 23, 2018 11:37
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Flavahbeast posted:What's the biggest reason for Iran and Saudi Arabia to be at each other's throats? It's been bugging me for a while, is it just the Shia/Sunni thing? There is an element of this, but to the Al-Sauds, the Iranian regime and influence is an existential threat to the ruling family. Losing enough ground, allies and influence would likely destabilize the country and the economy, and Saudi society does not have a stable social fabric that can sustain these changes.
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Jul 23, 2018 21:34
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So I'm assuming this means Turkey's negotiations with Russia didn't go anywhere? Where does that leave all these millions of refugees when Assad eventually takes the pocket - would the Turks accomodate a further 3 million refugees?
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Sep 8, 2018 05:51
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OhFunny posted:Why did this dude feel the need to write this? Because these people are idiots, not much else to it.
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Oct 15, 2018 21:37
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Coldwar timewarp posted:At the end of the day someone should say stop throwing good money after bad. The generals in charge talk about muddling through. It’s insane. Why not reach an accord with Assad with relation to Iranian troops. Why not reach an accord with the Taliban regarding al qaeda. I'm still not seeing the argument for having Trump unilaterally withdraw like this. Are you saying the US should withdraw because it costs too much? I could not care less about US budgetary considerations especially compared to avoiding the chaos that will happen after they leave. The difference between Afghanistan and Iraq is that after the US withdraws, especially if the Trump admin in its current state is the one to do it, you will not find a government faction to even nominally support like the US supported Baghdad against ISIS and the insurgency.
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Dec 21, 2018 09:40
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Egypt update: Sisi amended the constitution to make himself president till 2034. Just 2034, pinky swear!
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Feb 17, 2019 01:49
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fishmech posted:How is the rule structured? Like is it straight up "Article 420: Sisi is president until 2034" or a more general "starting now the new term limit is x years per term and y terms in a lifetime" and it's totally a coincidence that would mean he gets extra time in power, we promise. An Egyptian is restricted to two consecutive 6-year terms as president, the rule is only applicable starting from the next election in 2022 and doesn't take into account previous terms since Sisi is beloved leader.
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Feb 17, 2019 02:43
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Zudgemud posted:He would be like 80 then so it's not unlikely that he just croaks before that time. That still wouldn't fix much though, unless it was by a bomb that took out the rest of the generals at the same time. I've passed the point of believing anything could be fixed or changed for the better in this place. What they're fostering now is a pervasive cultural, social and economic decline in every fabric of this society; and an exodus of talent and skill at unprecedented levels. Living under Sisi these past 3 years makes me actually pine for Mubarak's 2000s, where even that semblance of civil society, and that sense of universal opposition existed. Squalid posted:I don't get why these guys feel they have to be forever dictators. I mean Sisi is 64, why not retire at some point? I'd rather not be worrying about coup d'etats in my seventies I guess I just don't get the appeal of dying in office. Strong dash of megalomania. Don't really think Sisi's afraid of consequences.
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Feb 17, 2019 02:58
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https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/02/27/worse-than-mubarak/ Goes into detail about Sisi's constitutional amendments, and how much more he is sinking into this hole compared to Mubarak.
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Feb 28, 2019 10:12
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Volkerball posted:Dang. When even squalid is moralizing at you, you know you hosed up. I disagree, here is documented proof of the health of Egypt's democracy, live from the polling stations: https://www.facebook.com/mahmoud.m.abdelslam/videos/10157045428065429/UzpfSTc4NjI0MDM3NjoxMDE2MjQ2NjYyMDkxNTM3Nw/
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Apr 21, 2019 02:18
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And the Egyptian constitutional amendments have passed with an 88% yes vote!  -Sisi is now president till 2030. -Women have a guaranteed 25% share of the houses of parliament. -Another house of parliament, the senate, is reintroduced. -The Egyptian military is now constitutionally the guarantor of Egyptian democracy Turnout was 44% (27M/61M voters)
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Apr 23, 2019 18:54
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I really hope this doesn't end with another Rab'a.
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Apr 25, 2019 10:32
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V. Illych L. posted:but obama actively and intelligently helping in the quashing of democratic movements in e.g. egypt is also worse. This is completely false. I'm not sure where the impression that a Muslim Brotherhood government was something the Obama administration wanted to avoid comes from, nor do I understand what steps the Obama administration took to help in any of the events that transpired in 2013. If you're arguing the Americans gave the Egyptian military the weapons used to quash the protests in 2013, the US military aid to Egypt is a fraction of Egypt's military/police spending and is mainly used as a subsidy for American weapon platform producers, churning out more Abrams, Apaches and F-16s; none of which are used in quashing democratic movements. If you're arguing that the aid represents implicit support to the Egyptian government, the Obama administration withheld aid payments for a significant amount of time following the Rab'aa dispersal, with chunks of the aid being released related to equipment used in fighting the insurgency in the Sinai, and the remaining chunks withheld till Sisi produced meaningful civil rights/human rights actions. If you're arguing that the Obama administration cutting off aid would have helped maintain democratic institutions in Egypt, I'd like to introduce you to Mohamed bin Zayed and Mohamed bin Salman. Regarding this pedantic argument on morals in US foreign policy, this thread has a tendency to be self-centered on the US as the only actor with agency. As explained above, no matter what the US did, short of arranging economic sanctions on a 40% below poverty line country that they somehow convince the Saudis and Emiratis to stick to, or an actual invasion, the US held no cards in this game; and they hold less cards in other middle eastern countries. Helsing posted:This is a comforting lie you're telling yourself so that you can pretend that your outrage against Trump's foreign policy is based on genuine moral outrage and not partisan frustration. I'll try to stop repeating myself at this point because it doesn't seem like there's much left to say. You are factually incorrect. Sisi in Egypt was almost convinced into easing human rights and non-profit organisation laws in Egypt through the Obama administration's policies towards him, something Trump reversed on coming to power. Ham fucked around with this message at 03:34 on May 3, 2019 |
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May 3, 2019 03:27
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Sinteres posted:Man this thread's dead when I'm triple posting across four different days. Anyway, Trump pardoned an American soldier who murdered an Iraqi who he suspected of being involved in an explosion that killed two other soldiers. Obviously the message Trump is trying to send is that he's a badass who supports the troops no matter what, and it lines up with his campaign rhetoric about supporting torture and worse, but I don't know how the Iraqi government can view this as anything other than a sign that American forces need to get the gently caress out of the country. If Americans are going to be pardoned even in the rare instances that American military courts find them guilty, it's hard to take any promises of accountability seriously. Thanks for keeping it up to date, thread has a lot of lurkers.
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May 7, 2019 16:04
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Sisi just gave a speech at the opening of the CAF football cup at Cairo Stadium, and he slurred more than half of it on live TV to the point where people think he's suffering from a brain condition/stroke. Might be non-news but I can't help feeling hopeful. 
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Jun 21, 2019 20:43
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DOCTOR ZIMBARDO posted:I’m sure this is SOP for the IDF lol What the hell is going on there lol
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Sep 3, 2019 07:54
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Egypt update: People in multiple cities went out to protest Sisi's regime today, including at Tahrir square in Cairo Backstory: Over the course of the past two weeks, Mohamed Ali, an actor and contractor that worked on "military" construction projects made a series of videos calling out Sisi's regime for building lavish palaces, military hotels, vacation houses, rest stops for the use of Sisi's family and top leadership, in addition to ceremonial upgrades for Sisi's mother's cemetery. These projects cost in the hundreds of millions of dollars and were kept secret to avoid any backlash or "sense" of corruption. The contractor's complaint mainly related to the military withholding payments to civilian contractors, but it escalated after the regime went all out on the guy, attacking him, his family, accusing him of being simultaneously a muslim brotherhood agent as well as homosexual. The regime didn't try to refute these allegations either through official channels or through the state-controlled media - in fact, Sisi went on stage a week or so ago and didn't deny the allegations, instead saying he would build more and more. After Sisi's response, there have been online rumblings about a call to protest. Nothing really happened after the Friday prayers, but protests went out today after a football match. The main chant is: "Say it, don't be scared, Sisi must be removed". Some video: https://twitter.com/lummideast/status/1175153789684330496 Ham fucked around with this message at 22:24 on Sep 20, 2019 |
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Sep 20, 2019 22:21
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Al-Saqr posted:Tonight, the Egyptian people have broken the barrier of fear, good luck and god be with you Egypt!!! Let freedom roar!!!! this is an incredibly good first step!!! I think Sisi would be discarded by the military pretty easily, similar to Mubarak. Far too many opportunists in that institution for it not to happen.
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Sep 21, 2019 00:04
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MiddleOne posted:Same question. I've seen the protests slowly start popping up into my feed but media coverage is like zilch. Ham posted:Egypt update: People in multiple cities went out to protest Sisi's regime today, including at Tahrir square in Cairo Protests were dispersed yesterday with no reported casualties. No reports of protests that I've heard of today, but even if they don't happen, a psychological barrier against protesting seems to finally be breaking.
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Sep 21, 2019 11:48
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Another night of protests in Egypt, specifically in the city of Suez - currently being dispersed with pellets and tear gas. Live feed: https://www.facebook.com/mohamed.saied.18/videos/1662633620534549/ Suez was one of the first cities to follow Cairo and go all in on protests back in 2011.
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Sep 21, 2019 22:31
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Sinteres posted:Looks like Sisi's getting nervous: The stooges in parliament (i.e all of parliament, really) were going on about how they should cut off the country from the internet, yeah.
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Sep 26, 2019 07:25
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atelier morgan posted:Iran is one of the least friendly places to invade in the world and unlike Iraq we don't have a puppet nation who'd be okay with us undertaking a military buildup for months on their border. An actual invasion of Iran is off the table for reasons of physical impossibility. If they manage to neutralize the Iranian small boat navy and missile positions they can attempt naval invasions of Bandar Abbas and Bandar Bushehr, but anything further strains belief.
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Jan 3, 2020 19:54
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Punkin Spunkin posted:Too bad. I hate all the things you're posting, but please keep posting them. 
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Jan 3, 2020 23:35
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Frank Sidebottom posted:Lol if you believe this What is hard to believe here exactly? They already assassinated the guy, and you're disputing whether they knew Mahdi invited him to Iraq or not?
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Jan 7, 2020 22:07
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Trump does come out of this winning. Iran backed out of the nuclear deal completely, severing an important line to Europe, he managed to kill their national hero and a genuinely good commander, Iran may have shot down a passenger jet on its own territory. All that cost was the few buildings destroyed and a broken relationship with an outgoing Iraqi government.
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Jan 8, 2020 20:03
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Squalid posted:that's good news at least. i'm suprised at how long this took to be honest, the fighting was really going no where. Haftar lost his gambit to take Tripoli more than six months ago. Really hard to predict where Libya goes from here. Haftar is far from being in a bad position eitherway, his faction controls most of the country and practically all the oil and only just last week managed to take Sirte. Erdogan nudged Putin into negotiation mode to play out his Mediterranean game so everyone goes through the motions now, but under all that tensions are increasing, not de-escalating. Egypt and UAE in particular have been heavily stepping up their rhetoric after the "Turkish advisors" thing over the past two weeks.
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Jan 12, 2020 20:50
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Apparently the GNA on the Misrata frontline have collapsed and Haftar is making steady progress for Misrata, about 70KM away now.
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Jan 14, 2020 03:24
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Squalid posted:where are you seeing this? I'm having trouble finding details from the usual sources. Losing Sirte was obviously a huge strategic lose for the GNA already, if Haftar can put troops right on the Misrata suburbs like he has in Tripoli I don't see how the GNA escapes cracking. They were really on the ropes even before this new development. Dreissi posted:Has anyone found reporting on the push by Haftar? I did some quick googling and just found news about the cease-fire talks collapsing. All reference to this push hasn't been verified by actual journalists yet - the original sourcing was through social media accounts that regularly report on Haftar's movements and the Libyan conflict in general. It's worth noting the ceasefire was only in effect around Tripoli and it's looking increasingly likely fighting in Tripoli will resume from tomorrow since talks collapsed.
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Jan 15, 2020 01:01
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Squalid posted:i saw this too and while it is meaningful, ultimately it won't be Tobruk that gets to make the call if Egypt intervenes. Based on statements leaked to the press, Egypt is unlikely to make a movie unless its Gulf sponsors promise to foot the bill. And I imagine now is a bad time for the Gulf to be taking on any massive new expenses. Ultimately a casus belli is irrelevant, and money isn't really what's holding up an intervention. Sisi is incredibly careful and risk-averse when it comes to foreign policy, especially anything that could upset the US and the EU, and he knows he doesn't have the clout to do a full-on invasion and/or annexation as Turkey did in Northern Syria - especially with a possibly significant change coming to the White House in November. He'll wait until all the cards line up for him where he gets minimal Western blowback, or until it's his last resort. Another big factor is the western diplomatic support he needs to deal with the Ethiopian dam - losing that support and consequently having no options with Ethiopia would be a devastating issue at home, on a much bigger scale than Libya. Ham fucked around with this message at 00:19 on Jul 20, 2020 |
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Jul 20, 2020 00:14
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Cogliermo posted:So, something light to take peoples minds off Libya for a bit: I ran into something weird on a story I had been enjoying on Sufficient Velocity (gist of it is, modern earth is transplanted on to a high fantasy mega world). The author seems to believe that not only is Egypt's government not a dictatorship, it is actually secretly run by communists and socialists in the ruling coalition who are going to make things better any day now and that this is all being hidden by the biased news media. The author credits this revelation to the one Egyptian guy he talks to online. There was a leak from a secret event these socialist-communists held a couple of years back and it's basically open knowledge in Egypt at this point, here's a picture: 
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Jul 25, 2020 00:38
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Grape posted:lol what the gently caress is this nonsense Kuwait's independence as a state outside the Ottoman sphere in the 19th century was almost entirely due to British trade interests and rivalry with the Ottomans, meant to deny the Iraqi Ottoman vilayets access to a reliable port on the Persian gulf. It's pretty dumb to bring it up in a discussion now, since the city had a distinct tribal Arab origin and has existed independent of Persian/Ottoman control of Iraq basically since its inception.
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Aug 21, 2020 02:30
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Do you guys think tourists to the UAE are going for a religious holiday or something? lmao
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Aug 23, 2020 02:13
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Squalid posted:Dang. And it takes all that expert reporting savvy just to tell us what everybody already knew. UAE and Egyptian governments are such dirtbags. Egypt and the UAE are involved in Libya?? Why I never!
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Aug 29, 2020 10:36
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Shageletic posted:First I’ll talk about what’s similar between Tunisia and the rest of the Arabic speaking countries. It had a vaguely Arab nationalist dictator, no political rights whatsoever, and a social contract in which people gave up their right to independently organize in exchange for some butter. And you had a working class that was, like everywhere else in the region, atomized and fragmented by neoliberalism. That's a whole bunch of words that don't touch the reality of the subject, and Jacobin in general is very out of touch with the realities of the Arab world because they only seem to talk to disaffected Arab socialists pushing an angle. Tunisia's revolution ended up with change for the simple reason that no one really cares about Tunisia. A lack of significant natural resources, a small population, negligible effect on Arab politics, and minimal reliance on Arab gulf royalty meant it had a negligible amoung of meddling from outside actors. From the start, Egypt was a major battleground in the proxy economic/influence fight between the Saudi/UAE royals and Qatar/Erdogan, with the ascendance of the MB or the military being dependent on currying support and funding from both factions. This led to a zero sum game between the MB and military that led to where Egypt as a country is right now, with the MB either in jail or outside the country, and with Turkey and Qatar being considered enemy states by the Egyptian regime. Ham fucked around with this message at 08:32 on Nov 26, 2020 |
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Nov 26, 2020 08:28
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Zedhe Khoja posted:Yeah, people have to come to terms that any transition to a better system in Egypt is either going to come through the same means that Morsi attempted to use (quickly trying to ram things through with whatever means before they can act), or violence. And that's true regardless of whether it's the MB or Socialists or what have you. The Egyptian high courts aren't reformable, because there's no mechanism to reform them that they don't have power to nullify. They aren't going to put a gun to their own head just because someone has a nice smile and the correct argument. The whole system goes or it's pointless, is the lesson taken from 2011-2014. Not that the next generation will fare any better or trust "our military" any less. The only way I expect real change in this country is if a power vacuum happens with the Gulf royalties that erodes Sisi's strong economic backing and political bargaining power. Having MBS and MBZ on your side matters a whole lot.
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Nov 26, 2020 22:22
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Zedhe Khoja posted:The real answer is it's probably a corrupt money laundering or graft scheme. Also I'm sure some of the exhibits will go missing or something in the transfer. If the crappy shaft tomb stuff I worked with was worth murdering a security guard over I hate to imagine how difficult it must be to keep the GEM stuff safe. It's not really either (even though there is some graft with military/intelligence stakes) , both new museum projects are partly financed by outside benefactors. The idea is just to keep tourists around for longer and to increase museum attendance rates. It's also a massive help to Sisi's image internally to be seen as a restorer of the national heritage, something the Mubarak administration was very lax on. The televized parade and performances are having a pretty powerful effect internally.
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Apr 8, 2021 11:01
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Discospawn posted:"Airport is taking fire, we're sending troops to take care of it." What the gently caress am I reading 
Ham fucked around with this message at 23:55 on Aug 15, 2021 |
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Aug 15, 2021 23:50
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