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RaySmuckles
Oct 14, 2009


:vapes:
Grimey Drawer

SickZip posted:

https://www.lrb.co.uk/v41/n02/seymour-m-hersh/the-vice-presidents-men

The tldr is that Bush thought Reagan and his pick to lead the CIA were clowns so he setup a completely illegal intelligence operation that conducted operations in foreign countries with no authorization from the president or Congress. The Iran Contra stuff started stepping on their toes so Bush leaked the info with the idea that the head of the CIA takes the fall and Reagan's clumsy cowboy operation ends. Except their fall guy gets brain cancer and becomes too dead to fill the role and everything spirals out of their control and becomes a major scandal when it was meant to be an embarrassment

yowza. thanks for elucidating

thats wild

RaySmuckles fucked around with this message at 03:44 on Mar 30, 2019

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Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

Gresh posted:

It is in the realm of conspiracy. #ReleaseTheFullReport is basically "Release your long form birth certificate" at this point. Its loving unbelievable how many people still won't admit fault and move on.

this is a bizarre talking point, as is the convergence on "long form birth certificate"

cargo cult
Aug 28, 2008

by Reene
The premise for the second chechen war is an actual for real false flag, not like 9/11 which is typical CIA and State department bungling and arming radicals and eating poo poo for it

On 22 September, an explosive device similar to those used in the bombings was found and defused in an apartment block in the Russian city of Ryazan.[3] The next day, Putin praised the vigilance of the inhabitants of Ryazan and ordered the air bombing of Grozny, marking the beginning of the Second Chechen War.[4] Thirty-six hours later, local police arrested the perpetrators, who were discovered to in fact be three FSB agents. The Russian government declared that the incident had simply been a training exercise, and the agents were released on Moscow's orders.[5]

probably not a big deal or whatever

Mnoba
Jun 24, 2010

Gresh posted:

It is in the realm of conspiracy. #ReleaseTheFullReport is basically "Release your long form birth certificate" at this point. Its loving unbelievable how many people still won't admit fault and move on.

Just the fact that texts between two of the main investigators admit "there is no big" and "my gut says there is nothing" and that Mueller didn't make Trump sit down should have been enough for most sane people.

The case was always about obstruction most likely, from early 2017 on, so you try dragging Trump's kids into it or you stage elaborate predawn raids on acquaintances with media ready hoping to set him off.

I mean, the biggest tell was Pelosi weeks ago dropping off impeachment out of nowhere lmao.

Xander77
Apr 6, 2009

Fuck it then. For another pit sandwich and some 'tater salad, I'll post a few more.



The one conspiracy theory that I pretty much believe is that Yuri Andropov was assassinated just as he got around to tackling the entrenched corruption in ruling USSR circles. Some sort of poison causing kidney failure and a falsified autopsy report would be pretty easy to arrange.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

cargo cult posted:

The premise for the second chechen war is an actual for real false flag, not like 9/11 which is typical CIA and State department bungling and arming radicals and eating poo poo for it

On 22 September, an explosive device similar to those used in the bombings was found and defused in an apartment block in the Russian city of Ryazan.[3] The next day, Putin praised the vigilance of the inhabitants of Ryazan and ordered the air bombing of Grozny, marking the beginning of the Second Chechen War.[4] Thirty-six hours later, local police arrested the perpetrators, who were discovered to in fact be three FSB agents. The Russian government declared that the incident had simply been a training exercise, and the agents were released on Moscow's orders.[5]

probably not a big deal or whatever

wasn't there another 'terrorist' bombing that happened after the government announcement of it?

predicto
Jul 22, 2004

THE DEM DEFENDER HAS LOGGED ON

Mnoba posted:

Just the fact that texts between two of the main investigators admit "there is no big" and "my gut says there is nothing" and that Mueller didn't make Trump sit down should have been enough for most sane people.

The case was always about obstruction most likely, from early 2017 on, so you try dragging Trump's kids into it or you stage elaborate predawn raids on acquaintances with media ready hoping to set him off.

I mean, the biggest tell was Pelosi weeks ago dropping off impeachment out of nowhere lmao.

Sorry to inform you that there are no "tells" giving you secret insight

everyone is just incompetent and clueless or obsessed with political spin. It's not deeper than that.

Mnoba
Jun 24, 2010

predicto posted:

Sorry to inform you that there are no "tells" giving you secret insight

everyone is just incompetent and clueless or obsessed with political spin. It's not deeper than that.

i'm not even sure what to say to this, i mean it's a thread about conspiracies for starters so it's kind of implied. but just wading in there saying durr nobody knows anything doesn't sound very fulfilling

Ytlaya
Nov 13, 2005

true.spoon posted:

Helsing, can you give an example of particularly bad reporting in this regard (preferably mainstream, for example a Rachel Maddow piece, and maybe not older than a year)? This is an honest request, I would like to have something to compare to what will eventually be publicly known to callibrate my worldview so to speak.

Even if one disagrees with the conclusions or thinks that he's being unfair (though I think he does a fine job of making the case that journalists acted very inappropriately), this Taibbi article cites a bunch of examples along the lines of what you're talking about : https://taibbi.substack.com/p/russiagate-is-wmd-times-a-million

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou..._k7vQ3y0jbLcNWW

quote:

There has been much crowing from Trumpsters on the right and Russiagate skeptics on the left about Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s report. That is, the three-and-a-half-page letter Attorney General Bill Barr sent to Congress summarizing Mueller’s work. (The report itself remains secret and is reportedly over 300 pages.) Pointing to Barr’s citation of a single, partial sentence from the report (“[T]he investigation did not establish that members of the Trump Campaign conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in its election interference activities”), Trump and his partisans, as well as the small number of lefty Russiagate deniers, have declared that because Mueller found no direct collaboration, the Trump-Russia scandal is kaput. Some have even declared it was a hoax—and a gargantuan media con job—from the start.

These critics are wrong. And here’s an easy way to tell whether they are engaging in honest discourse.

Two fundamental facts were established long before Mueller completed his investigation. First, the Russians attacked an American election in order to sow chaos, hurt Hillary Clinton, and help Donald Trump. Second, Trump and his top advisers during the campaign repeatedly denied this attack was underway, echoing and amplifying Moscow disinformation (the false claim that Russia was not attacking). Whether or not the Trumpers were directly in cahoots with the Russian government, they ran interference for Vladimir Putin’s assault on the United States, and they even did so after the intelligence community had briefed Trump on Russia’s culpability.


So to determine if the Barr triumphalists are acting in good faith, you need only ask them a simple question: do you accept these basic facts and acknowledge the profound seriousness of each one?

The Russian attack on the 2016 election was an attempt to subvert the foundation of American society: the democratic process. How can Americans have faith in their government, if elections are undermined by secret schemers, including a foreign government? It is certainly arguable that the Russian intervention—particularly the stealing and drip-drip-drip dumping of the John Podesta emails across the final four weeks of the election—was one of several decisive factors in a contest that had a narrow and tight finish. Consequently, there is a strong case that Moscow helped shift the course of US history by contributing to the election of Trump. (And recognizing this is not the same as defending Hillary Clinton or concocting an excuse for the Democrats’ embarrassing loss to Trump.)

This is the original sin of the Trump presidency: he and his crew aided and abetted the Russian attack by lying about it and running interference for the Russians.
During the campaign and afterward, some Trump backers and some critics on the left, including columnist and media scold Glenn Greenwald, questioned whether the Russians indeed engaged in such skulduggery. (The Nation, where I once worked, published an article promoting a report that claimed the Russians did not hack the Democratic National Committee—and then had to backtrack when that report turned out to be bunk.)

For many of these scandal skeptics, it hasn’t seemed to matter that the charge against Moscow has been publicly confirmed by the Obama administration, the US intelligence community (which concluded that Putin’s operation intended to help Trump), both Republicans and Democrats on the congressional intelligence committees, and Robert Mueller, who indicted a mess of Russians for participating in this covert operation. True, there often is cause to question officialdom and government sources. Yet anyone citing the Mueller report, as it is narrowly capsulized by Barr, must also accept his key finding: Russia attacked the United States and intervened in the election. (They must also accept that, as the Barr letter disclosed, Mueller found evidence suggesting Trump obstructed justice but did not reach a final judgment on this question.)

Moscow’s intervention was an outrageous action, and concern about this should unite right and left and anyone in between. There is nothing more important in this whole affair than the attack itself. Those who are not profoundly distressed about the consequences and implications of that assault—including those who instead focus more on distractions, such as conspiracy theories about the Deep State or the role of the Steele dossier—should answer this question: Is it because you don’t truly care this happened, or is it because acknowledging this reality interferes with your ideological or partisan loyalties? Or is it both? It is hard to see how a possible misuse of wiretapping authority by the Obama administration (an unproven assertion hurled by Republicans) or possible overstatements from Democrats or liberal pundits about Trump-Russia connections (which leftist skeptics have cited) could be more important than an attack on the US political system that was a factor in the outcome of the election.


Back to the second fundamental fact. On Tuesday, Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway, responding to the Barr letter, proclaimed, “The idea that any of us, and me as a campaign manager, would cheat, steal, lie, cut corners, talk to Russians, was an insult from the beginning.” Her statement was a lie about lying.

The public record is undeniable: Trump campaign people communicated with Russians during the campaign numerous times. Donald Trump Jr., Paul Manafort, and Jared Kushner met with a Russian emissary who they were informed would slip them dirt on Hillary Clinton as part of a secret Kremlin plot to help Trump’s campaign. Manafort, while serving as Trump’s campaign chairman, secretly met with a Ukrainian-Russian business associate named Konstantin Kilimnik who was a go-between with Oleg Deripaska, a Putin-friendly Russian oligarch. Manafort handed Kilimnik private campaign polling data and discussed a so-called peace-plan that presumably would involve lifting sanctions on Russia. (According to Mueller, the FBI has concluded that Kilimnik was associated with Russian intelligence.)

Not to mention that through much of the summer of 2016, Trump foreign policy aide George Papdopoulos, according to Mueller, was trying to set up an “off the record” meeting with Putin’s office. Carter Page, another foreign policy adviser, spoke with Russian officials in Moscow, where he made a speech assailing the West’s tough stance against Putin for his violent intervention in Ukraine.

All of this occurred while Russia was attacking the United States. (Manafort met with Kilimnik and Papadopoulos reached out to Putin’s office after it had been reported that Russia was the likely culprit in the hack-and-dump operation seeking to influence the US election.) And these contacts happened as Trump and his campaign—most notably, Trump Jr. and Manafort—were also publicly denying that any such attack was underway.

These denials had no basis in fact and ran counter to what cybersecurity experts were saying—but they precisely echoed what the Russians were saying: It ain’t us! The combination of public denials and private contacts could only have been read as encouragement by Moscow. Trump at one point even called on Russia to hack Clinton’s emails, and, according to a Mueller indictment, Russian government hackers attempted to do so that very evening.

This is the original sin of the Trump presidency: he and his crew aided and abetted the Russian attack by lying about it and running interference for the Russians. And contrary to what Conway asserted, the Trump crowd, after the election, lied about most of these interactions. Trump and Trump Jr. lied about the Trump Tower meeting, claiming it had been merely a discussion of Russian adoption policy. Manafort lied to Mueller’s investigators about his meeting with Kilimnik. (By the way, Roger Stone, a longtime Trump adviser, was indicted by Mueller for lying about his efforts during the campaign to contact WikiLeaks as it pumped out Democratic material swiped by the Russians.)

One of Trump’s biggest lies about Russia was exposed nearly a year after the election: While running for president, he had told voters that he had no business links with Russia, yet for much of the campaign his Trump Organization had been secretly negotiating a deal to develop a Trump tower in Moscow—which could have landed Trump hundreds of millions of dollars and which likely could not have proceeded if Trump had dared to speak negatively about Putin. Such a whopping conflict of interest is a huge scandal, with or without any direct coordination between Trump and Russia’s covert operators. And for that Moscow venture, Michael Cohen, Trump’s fixer, had communicated with Putin’s office and asked for assistance. Cohen later admitted to lying to Congress about this.

It always seemed quite possible—probable—that the Russians did not need to conspire directly with Trump or his campaign to go after Democratic targets or to mount a disinformation campaign.
There were contacts with Russia and lies about those contacts—and false denials that provided cover for the Russian attack. How can all this be regarded as not a scandal? Especially before the full contents of the Mueller report, which might contain new information about these parts of the story, is made public, if that ever happens.

And there’s another matter not covered by Barr’s skinny summary: the counterintelligence inquiry that was part of Mueller’s probe. This was the investigation of whether Russia had manipulated or influenced Trump or anyone within his campaign or circle. The FBI’s Trump-Russia investigation began under FBI chief James Comey in the summer of 2016 as a counterintelligence project, not a criminal investigation. But as Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, said this week, “It is not clear whether, or to what extent, the Mueller report, which is focused on prosecutorial decisions, will even discuss counterintelligence findings.” (Counterintelligence investigations are super-secret, often relying on classified intelligence gathering, and usually do not end with prosecutions or public pronouncements.)

It always seemed quite possible—probable—that the Russians did not need to conspire directly with Trump or his campaign to go after Democratic targets or to mount a disinformation campaign boosting Trump and discrediting Clinton. Yet Trump, by claiming this foreign adversary was not attacking the United States, made it easier for Putin to pull this off. Whether the Trump gang helped the Russian operation deliberately or inadvertently, it committed a foul act that undermined national security and a national election. Anyone who doesn’t accept this—Trump and his lieutenants assisting the attack, whether or not a crime was committed—as significant wrongdoing deserving investigation and opprobrium ought not to be considered a serious voice in any discussion of the Trump-Russia scandal.

Yet now there are many rushing to the their keyboards and strutting before television cameras to declare the scandal was nothing more than trickery concocted by sore-loser Democrats and unscrupulous journalists. Far from cooking up anything, many reporters worked hard to slice through the lies knitted by Trump and his allies and revealed many of the essential facts noted above. The Russiagate detractors and the Trump champions are deliberately and deceptively narrowing the question to focus only on direct conspiracy between the Trump camp and the Kremlin, pertaining specifically to the attack. They are embracing Trump’s own self-serving standard. They are studiously ignoring what has already been established: Moscow waged information warfare against the United States, Trump’s campaign enthusiastically engaged with Russians while the attack was transpiring (conveying to Moscow that it did not mind the Kremlin’s intervention), and Trumpists lied about these interactions and misled the public about the Russian operation. All these gleeful Russiagate deniers now exploiting the minimalist Barr letter to diminish or suppress the Trump-Russia scandal are conducting an exercise of diversion that is of tremendous benefit to two men—Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin—and a disservice to the American public.
David Corn


Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Helsing
Aug 23, 2003

DON'T POST IN THE ELECTION THREAD UNLESS YOU :love::love::love: JOE BIDEN

true.spoon posted:

Helsing, can you give an example of particularly bad reporting in this regard (preferably mainstream, for example a Rachel Maddow piece, and maybe not older than a year)? This is an honest request, I would like to have something to compare to what will eventually be publicly known to callibrate my worldview so to speak.

Well, let's just start with the obvious question of proportionality. Can we say that the coverage of this event given by the media was in any way proportionate to the impact it was having, especially in light of all the other stories that necessarily received less coverage?

With modern propaganda/public relations/info warfare, or whatever you want to call it, the most important factor is repetition. Plenty of stories that are critical of powerful people or inconvenient for the media itself get published or broadcast - but typically they don't get repeated coverage. You'll get the occasional story on a topic like the Saudi starvation campaign in Yemen but endless discussion of Russia's use of barrel bombs in Syria. While the media has given you information on both topics the amount of coverage dedicated to the one topic in favour of the other inevitably distorts our view. So in what follows I think its crucial to appreciate that emphasis is the key here. What stories get repeated coverage? It might be helpful to think of these stories sort of like coordinate advertising campaigns. A good advertiser will release a variety of different 'spots' as part of the same campaign - huge 5 minute commercials that play in movie theatres, sort 15 second spots that go onto prime time television, glossy magazine ads, banner ads on websites - and then on top of that they'll have "influencers" who promote these products further. A single advertisement wouldn't be very effective but when all of these actions are taken in conjunction over a long period of time they are much more effective at shaping consumer behaviour. Similarly, with propaganda in the news the objective is typically not to fool people with a single piece of incorrect information but instead to shape the overall tone and extent of the coverage dedicated to different issues. Typically you don't necessarily need to lie at all as long as you are good enough at controlling what issues get covered.

So with thati n mind let's ask ourselves whether this was what the country actually needed from the media following Trump's victory. Was this a good use of the media's investigative powers? Were these stories that really got to the heart of what was wrong with Trump and what was alarming about his victory?

The Hill posted:

MSNBC's Maddow covers Russia more than all other topics combined: analysis


MSNBC host has Rachel Maddow dedicated 53 percent of her program over the past six weeks to Russia, according to a Thursday analysis from the left-leaning The Intercept.

“Maddow’s Russia coverage has dwarfed the time devoted to other top issues, including Trump’s escalating crackdown on undocumented immigrants (1.3 percent of coverage); Obamacare repeal (3.8 percent); the legal battle over Trump’s Muslim ban (5.6 percent), a surge of anti-GOP activism and town halls since Trump took office (5.8 percent), and Trump administration scandals and stumbles (11 percent)," the analysis reads.

The quantitative breakdown was conducted between Feb. 20 and Mar. 31.

During this stretch, "The Rachel Maddow Show" has enjoyed its best ratings in nearly a decade, easily topping CNN and finishing at the top of all of cable news for four consecutive weeks throughout the month of March.

The analysis from the Intercept, which has been generally skeptical of stories about ties between President Trump's camp and Russia, also found that over this six-week period, Maddow focused on Russia more than every other political issue combined. That included big stories such as the GOP's failed attempt to repeal ObamaCare, the proposed temporary travel ban, Trump's budget proposal, the confirmation battle over Judge Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court, and U.S. military action in Yemen, Iraq and Syria, among other topics.

“Given her political expertise, journalistic acumen, and influential platform, Maddow is ideally suited to explore the Democrats’ 2016 electoral collapse in an insightful way. But the time and investigative zeal that Maddow has devoted to Russia has come at the cost of any such analysis," the piece concludes.

Maddow's audience appears to have embraced the focus on Russia, with Maddow winning the ratings race in the younger demographic again on Wednesday night with 538,000 viewers in the category.

That analysis only covers a 6 week stretch but it seems pretty representative of MSNBC and CNN's overall approach to this. The Intercept story also offers some good examples of the stories that suffered as a result:

The Intercept posted:

Missed Opportunities While Focusing on Russia

On March 7, Maddow led with the day’s top story: the unveiling of Republican plans to repeal Obamacare. “If you are worried about losing your health insurance, if you are worried about 20 million of your fellow Americans losing their health insurance, today was very scary,” Maddow said.

But after less than two minutes, Maddow promised to return to the story later and shifted gears to a higher editorial priority:


But we are going to start at this embassy. The embassy, this is a big one. It is fully staffed … there’s even an attaché specifically for fish. The fisheries attaché is named Mr. Oleg Vladimirovich Rykov.

Viewers were then treated to a 22-minute deep dive into the Steele dossier and the various ways “the bits and pieces of what’s reported in this dossier are turning out to be true and reported and checkable.” When Maddow finally returned to the day’s opening, “scary” story about millions standing to lose their health insurance, she gave it less than four more minutes.

Six days later, on March 13, Maddow opened with the day’s “absolutely astonishing” news that the Congressional Budget Office was now estimating that 24 million people would lose their health insurance if Republicans manage to repeal Obamacare. But after less than two minutes, Maddow again veered off: “We’re actually going to start the show tonight on the subject of money, lots and lots and lots and lots of money.” The ensuing 20-minute segment speculated on whether the recent firing of New York U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara could be tied to investigations into Russian money laundering through Deutsche Bank and the Bank of Cyprus. The CBO’s Obamacare repeal news ended up getting less than five minutes of Maddow’s time.


On March 16, Trump unveiled a budget that would boost military funding and slash vital government spending. But Maddow viewers heard no mention of the EPA, public broadcasting, meals on wheels, the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, the Community Development Block Grant program, or other targets of Trump’s domestic cuts. Instead, Maddow began the show by recounting the shady Russian bid to win the 2014 Winter Olympics, and how a Russian air cargo company involved in the scandal would later become one of several Russian entities that made payments to former Trump National Security Adviser Michael Flynn. The 22-minute segment explored the issue of whether Flynn committed a crime in taking money from Russians, and whether the Trump campaign knew about it. The next 12 minutes were devoted to alleged Russian hacking that targeted down-ballot congressional Democratic candidates in 2016, and the Clinton campaign’s response.

Of course it gets so much worse than this. Because in addition to talking about Trump's alleged Russia ties to the exclusion of everything else, the media also used Trump's alleged connections to Russia to justify some of the most insanely bad pro-war reporting I've ever seen, even in the US media.

Here's someone on the Rachel Maddow blog repeating what Maddow herself repeated suggested on air: that Trump's Korean policy is orchestrated by Russia:

MSNBC.com, Rachel Maddow Blog posted:

Donald Trump’s first big concession to North Korea’s Kim Jong-un came before their summit even began: the American president agreed to a bilateral summit, one of the dictatorship’s long-sought goals, in exchange for practically nothing.

Trump’s second big concession, however, was announced immediately after the summit ended: the president was scrapping joint military exercises with our South Korean allies, to North Korea’s delight, also in exchange for practically nothing.

It was a difficult decision to defend. After all, the United States military has been participating in these joint exercises for decades. Making matters worse, Trump made the announcement without notifying our partners in South Korea, who were blindsided by the American leader’s decision, or the Pentagon, where officials had no idea what the Republican president was talking about.

So why in the world would Trump do this? His first stated reason was that canceling the military exercises would save us money, which isn’t altogether true, and which is an argument officials from both parties found bizarre. Trump also argued that the exercises were overtly “provocative” – which represented an exceedingly rare instance in which an American president echoed the talking points of North Korea’s communist dictatorship.

But to fully appreciate the oddity of the circumstances, it’s worth understanding where Trump apparently got this idea in the first place. The Wall Street Journal reported in January:

Around the same time, Mr. Trump had an idea about how to counter the nuclear threat posed by North Korea, which he got after speaking to Russian President Vladimir Putin: If the U.S. stopped joint military exercises with the South Koreans, it could help moderate Kim Jong Un’s behavior…. Mr. Trump dropped the idea, although he has ordered aides to give the exercises a low profile, eliminating press releases and briefings about them.

In context, “around the same time” refers to the period last summer after Trump met with Putin at the G-20 summit in Hamburg.


What we’re left with is an awkward dynamic: one of the most controversial foreign policy decisions of Trump’s presidency, which is a highly unusual concession to an American enemy in exchange for nothing, appears to have originated with the Russian president who orchestrated an attack on the United States a year earlier.

In normal political times, wouldn’t this generate a congressional hearing or two?

:psyduck:

So just to be clear: the United States government runs a massive annual military exercise off the coast of North Korea. It is constantly brought up by the North Koreans as a blatantly provocative power play and it's regularly cited as a major barrier to better relations. Which frankly seems kind of reasonable whatever your feelings about the North Korean regime. The idea that simply meeting with the other side unconditionally to talk diplomacy is some kind of massive "concession" is the kind of mindset that in the recent past was considered the exclusive purview of only the most insane Republican war mongers. Now its a serious talking point pushed by allegedly liberal commentators.

Lost in all this is the fact that the main impetus for the negotiations comes from the Koreans themselves or the fact that maybe it's actually a good thing to be de-escalating tensions in that region. What should be an unambiguously positive story with a focus on the Korean experience is very irresponsibly appropriated by liberal hawks who literally suggest that trying to set up an unconditional diplomatic meeting warrants a full congressional inquiry.

Also let's be perfectly clear that this news coverage has an agenda. The media is pretty open about the fact that the quickest way for Trump to earn their praise is by dropping more bombs. We also see this with the ridiculously schizophrenic coverage of Venezuela: somehow the media want us to think that Trump and Maduro are both clients of Russia even though Trump is the strongest advocate in the White House of attacking Venezuela. In fact we could do quite a laundry list of specific examples of Trump conducting anti-Russia policies vastly harsher than anything Obama contemplated, but this all goes largely unremarked upon in most of the media.

Meanwhile we've gotten an endless drip drip drip of stories like this one:

Quartz posted:

Russian operatives were promoting sex toys on Instagram to sow discord in the US
By Hanna KozlowskaDecember 17, 2018

Two reports produced by independent researchers for the US Senate Intelligence Committee, released today (Dec. 17), show that Instagram was a much more significant tool in the hands of Russian operatives trying to influence US politics than previously thought—and was at times potentially more powerful than Facebook.

Between early 2015 and late 2017—during which the US elected Donald Trump as president—accounts associated with the Kremlin-sponsored Russian Internet Agency created more content on Instagram. These posts also received more engagement on Instagram than on Facebook, even though there are more ways to engage on Facebook, researchers from cybersecurity company New Knowledge, Columbia University and software research and development firm Canfield Research found in the 100-page report.

“Instagram was perhaps the most effective platform for the Internet Research Agency. Approximately 40% of its accounts achieved over 10,000 followers (a level colloquially referred to as “micro-influencers” by marketers); twelve accounts had over 100,000 followers (“influencer” level),” researchers said.

The top accounts were identity-based, targeting people interested in African-American, veteran, feminist, or LGBT issues.

“In 2017, as media covered their Facebook and Twitter operations, the IRA shifted much of its activity to Instagram. Instagram engagement outperformed Facebook, which may indicate its strength as a tool in image-centric memetic (meme) warfare,” the researchers write in their report, which details the operatives’ various tactics. The New Knowledge analysis and the other report, from Oxford University and social-network analysis firm Graphika, both say that social media companies should cooperate more with the US government and researchers to stem the spread of foreign propaganda.

The actual reach of the Instagram posts is not entirely clear. Each report shows that over a three-year period, Instagram posts garnered more than 185 million interactions (likes and comments). (Facebook initially said, ahead of congressional hearings in late 2017, that over a roughly two-year period, 126 million people saw IRA-linked content on Facebook and only 20 million saw it on Instagram.)

It’s possible that the Instagram engagement was inflated by click farms—companies that artificially inflate the number of interactions posts online receive—the New Knowledge researchers said, which would make its actual reach smaller. But if Russian actors paid for clicks on Instagram, it would further emphasize how important the app was for the country’s influence campaign—and show how easy it is for bad actors to game the platform.

On the other hand, the number of post seen could potentially be even greater. Facebook makes sharing content easy, but Instagram doesn’t have a native “sharing” feature—people do it through third-party apps, like Repost for example, making it harder to track.

The operatives used various audience-growing tactics, creating some bizarre outcomes. The accounts promoted merchandise, including merch sites run by the IRA itself. Some of the merch overlapped with Facebook, but, the researchers found some products unique to Instagram like “LGBT-positive sex toys and many variants of triptych and 5-panel artwork featuring traditionally conservative, patriotic themes,” the New Knowledge report said. The merchandise could have provided the IRA with some income, but more importantly, offered the operatives access to buyers’ personal data, including payment information, and help with ad targeting in the future.

The Russian operatives’ activity on Instagram only increased after the 2016 US presidential election. There was a 238% spike in activity in the in a six-month period after the 2016 election, according to the Oxford report, and there are no signs of stopping. “Our assessment is that Instagram is likely to be a key battleground on an ongoing basis,” the New Knowledge researchers wrote.

I could go into this in greater depth because this story is really just remarkable. However, I'm going to assume that the average goon is familiar enough with the internet and such to recognize how fundamentally ridiculous the story above and the statistics it cites are. This is a blatant exercise in using scary sounding out of context numbers to frighten baby boomer news consumers who don't understand how loving silly the underlying premise of the article actually is. All these scary sounding quotes about the reach of instagram sort of rhetorically overwhelm the readers mind to the point that they're maybe less likely to consider how loving stupid an idea it is that instagram sex toy ads are a noteworthy part of some Russian intelligence op.

But hey, let's take a moment to talk about the organization behind that story, the Internet Research Agency, because they're a pretty important and largely under explored part of this story:

New York Times posted:

Secret Experiment in Alabama Senate Race Imitated Russian Tactics

By Scott Shane and Alan Blinder
Dec. 19, 2018

As Russia’s online election machinations came to light last year, a group of Democratic tech experts decided to try out similarly deceptive tactics in the fiercely contested Alabama Senate race, according to people familiar with the effort and a report on its results.

The secret project, carried out on Facebook and Twitter, was likely too small to have a significant effect on the race, in which the Democratic candidate it was designed to help, Doug Jones, edged out the Republican, Roy S. Moore. But it was a sign that American political operatives of both parties have paid close attention to the Russian methods, which some fear may come to taint elections in the United States.

One participant in the Alabama project, Jonathon Morgan, is the chief executive of New Knowledge, a small cyber security firm that wrote a scathing account of Russia’s social media operations in the 2016 election that was released this week by the Senate Intelligence Committee.

An internal report on the Alabama effort, obtained by The New York Times, says explicitly that it “experimented with many of the tactics now understood to have influenced the 2016 elections.”

The project’s operators created a Facebook page on which they posed as conservative Alabamians, using it to try to divide Republicans and even to endorse a write-in candidate to draw votes from Mr. Moore. It involved a scheme to link the Moore campaign to thousands of Russian accounts that suddenly began following the Republican candidate on Twitter, a development that drew national media attention.

“We orchestrated an elaborate ‘false flag’ operation that planted the idea that the Moore campaign was amplified on social media by a Russian botnet,” the report says.

Mr. Morgan said in an interview that the Russian botnet ruse “does not ring a bell,” adding that others had worked on the effort and had written the report. He said he saw the project as “a small experiment” designed to explore how certain online tactics worked, not to affect the election.

Mr. Morgan said he could not account for the claims in the report that the project sought to “enrage and energize Democrats” and “depress turnout” among Republicans, partly by emphasizing accusations that Mr. Moore had pursued teenage girls when he was a prosecutor in his 30s.

“The research project was intended to help us understand how these kind of campaigns operated,” said Mr. Morgan. “We thought it was useful to work in the context of a real election but design it to have almost no impact.”

The project had a budget of just $100,000, in a race that cost approximately $51 million, including the primaries, according to Federal Election Commission records.

But however modest, the influence effort in Alabama may be a sign of things to come. Campaign veterans in both parties fear the Russian example may set off a race to the bottom, in which candidates choose social media manipulation because they fear their opponents will.

“Some will do whatever it takes to win,” said Dan Bayens, a Kentucky-based Republican consultant. “You’ve got Russia, which showed folks how to do it, you’ve got consultants willing to engage in this type of behavior and political leaders who apparently find it futile to stop it.”

There is no evidence that Mr. Jones sanctioned or was even aware of the social media project. Joe Trippi, a seasoned Democratic operative who served as a top adviser to the Jones campaign, said he had noticed the Russian bot swarm suddenly following Mr. Moore on Twitter. But he said it was impossible that a $100,000 operation had an impact on the race.

Mr. Trippi said he was nonetheless disturbed by the stealth operation. “I think the big danger is somebody in this cycle uses the dark arts of bots and social networks and it works,” he said. “Then we’re in real trouble.”

Despite its small size, the Alabama project brought together some prominent names in the world of political technology. The funding came from Reid Hoffman, the billionaire co-founder of LinkedIn, who has sought to help Democrats catch up with Republicans in their use of online technology.

The money passed through American Engagement Technologies, run by Mikey Dickerson, the founding director of the United States Digital Service, which was created during the Obama administration to try to upgrade the federal government’s use of technology. Sara K. Hudson, a former Justice Department fellow now with Investing in Us, a tech finance company partly funded by Mr. Hoffman, worked on the project, along with Mr. Morgan.

A close collaborator of Mr. Hoffman, Dmitri Mehlhorn, the founder of Investing in Us, said in a statement that “our purpose in investing in politics and civic engagement is to strengthen American democracy” and that while they do not “micromanage” the projects they fund, they are not aware of having financed projects that have used deception. Mr. Dickerson declined to comment and Ms. Hudson did not respond to queries.

The Alabama project got started as Democrats were coming to grips with the Russians’ weaponizing of social media to undermine the presidential campaign of Hillary Clinton and promote Donald J. Trump.

Mr. Morgan reached out at the time to Renée DiResta, who would later join New Knowledge and was lead author of the report on Russian social media operations released this week.

“I know there were people who believed the Democrats needed to fight fire with fire,” Ms. DiResta said, adding that she disagreed. “It was absolutely chatter going around the party.”

But she said Mr. Morgan simply asked her for suggestions of online tactics worth testing. “My understanding was that they were going to investigate to what extent they could grow audiences for Facebook pages using sensational news,” she said.

Mr. Morgan confirmed that the project created a generic page to draw conservative Alabamians — he said he couldn’t remember its name — and that Mac Watson, one of multiple write-in candidates, contacted the page. “But we didn’t do anything on his behalf,” he said.

The report, however, says the Facebook page agreed to “boost” Mr. Watson’s campaign and stayed in regular touch with him, and was “treated as an advisor and the go-to media contact for the write-in candidate.’’ The report claims the page got him interviews with The Montgomery Advertiser and The Washington Post.

Mr. Watson, who runs a patio supply company in Auburn, Ala., confirmed that he got some assistance from a Facebook page whose operators seemed determined to stay in the shadows.

Of dozens of conservative Alabamian-oriented pages on Facebook that he wrote to, only one replied. “You are in a particularly interesting position and from what we have read of your politics, we would be inclined to endorse you,” the unnamed operator of the page wrote. After Mr. Watson answered a single question about abortion rights as a sort of test, the page offered an endorsement, though no money.

“They never spent one red dime as far as I know on anything I did — they just kind of told their 400 followers, ‘Hey, vote for this guy,’” Mr. Watson said.

Mr. Watson never spoke with the page’s author or authors by phone, and they declined a request for meeting. But he did notice something unusual: his Twitter followers suddenly ballooned from about 100 to about 10,000. The Facebook page’s operators asked Mr. Watson whether he trusted anyone to set up a super PAC that could receive funding and offered advice on how to sharpen his appeal to disenchanted Republican voters.

Shortly before the election, the page sent him a message, wishing him luck.

The report does not say whether the project purchased the Russian bot Twitter accounts that suddenly began to follow Mr. Moore. But it takes credit for “radicalizing Democrats with a Russian bot scandal” and points to stories on the phenomenon in the mainstream media. “Roy Moore flooded with fake Russian Twitter followers,” reported The New York Post.

Inside the Moore campaign, officials began to worry about online interference.

“We did have suspicions that something odd was going on,” said Rich Hobson, Mr. Moore’s campaign manager. Mr. Hobson said that although he did not recall any hard evidence of interference, the campaign complained to Facebook about potential chicanery.

“Any and all of these things could make a difference,” Mr. Hobson said. “It’s definitely frustrating, and we still kick ourselves that Judge Moore didn’t win.”

When Election Day came, Mr. Jones became the first Alabama Democrat elected to the Senate in a quarter of a century, defeating Mr. Moore by 21,924 votes in a race that drew more than 22,800 write-in votes. More than 1.3 million ballots were cast over all.

Many of the write-in votes went to then-Attorney General Jeff Sessions, Condoleezza Rice — an Alabama native and former secretary of state — certain popular football coaches and Jesus Christ. Mr. Watson drew just a few hundred votes.

Mr. Watson noticed one other oddity. The day after the vote, the Facebook page that had taken such an interest in him had vanished.

“It was a group that, like, honest to God, next day was gone,” said Mr. Watson.

“It was weird,” he said. “The whole thing was weird.”

Let's pull a couple sentences from early in that article because they deserve particular emphasis:

quote:

But it was a sign that American political operatives of both parties have paid close attention to the Russian methods, which some fear may come to taint elections in the United States.

One participant in the Alabama project, Jonathon Morgan, is the chief executive of New Knowledge, a small cyber security firm that wrote a scathing account of Russia’s social media operations in the 2016 election that was released this week by the Senate Intelligence Committee.

So first of all notice how techniques used by American firms (and which would be totally familiar to anyone with a background in marketing or branding in corporate America) gets turned into "Russian methods". Do I really need to point out the insanity of taking banal everyday web marketing stuff that corporations and politicians do all the time and trying to present it as some form of advanced Russian propaganda technique? Notice how problems that are completely native to America and directly attributable to American companies are reinvented as a scary foreign threat emanating from Russia, which American firms are merely emulating.

Also notice how one of the firms that was drumming up fear about Russian "information warfare" was actually practicing exactly the techniques that we're all supposed to think are destroying American democracy. This is probably the most well documented and direct example of using social media to attack an election and its being done by a Democratic firm to attack a Republican candidate.

And of course this has an important function. The endless drip-drip-drip of stories, no matter how individually ridiculous they are, created a widespread atmosphere of panic in which practically anything seemed plausible to a lot of people. It was in that context that the Washington Post actually went as far as promoting a shadowy anonymous group called "Prop or Not" that tried to argue practically every major source of news outside the US mainstream was more or less direct Russian propaganda. Fortunately other media figures pushed back against that excess and the WaPo had to disavow the story, but plenty of other stories drumming up a panic about "fake news" and implying that we needed to crack down on alternative media sources still circulated.

Circling back to what I was saying earlier, it's really key to understand that part of what made this whole media process so insidious was how it relied on insinuation and disproportionate coverage of specific events (along with a concomitant lack of coverage on other crucial events that would have contextualized the things that did get covered) the media was able to more or less reassure a large part of its audience that the 2016 election was a fluke produced by forces that were exogenous to the country, and that the logical solution was to adopt a more aggressive foreign policy and double down in our support for established institutions like the media and intelligence agencies.

And this is without even going into the specific problems with how the story was reported, the extent to which statements by known liars and perjurers were taken at face value, the credulousness with which the media reported every indictment as though it were a conviction, or the fact that practically none of the people who hosed this story up have shown the slightest contrition now that the whole thing is blowing up in their faces.

This also doesn't address the extent to which a story about Russian influence has obscured the much more important question about Trump's relations with the gulf monarchies, MBS, Israel and, worst of all, so called "dark money" from the US billionaire class itself.

Cause that's the real story of 2016, which for some reason the mainstream media doesn't want to engage with and which Democratic partisans seem way less hyped about, despite the fact they used to complain endlessly about Citizens United:

Mother Jones posted:

By Election Day, however, it was clear Trump had run a largely conventional presidential campaign when it came to fundraising. He raised more than $300 million from wealthy givers and small-dollar donors, lobbyists and business executives—the usual suspects. He used those funds to pay a roster of consultants, pollsters, fundraisers, and ad makers, often in ways that obscured the purpose of the campaign’s spending. He ran lots of TV ads. Super-PACs and dark-money groups provided more than $100 million in unofficial support. And in the final week of the campaign, pro-Trump outside groups actually outspent groups supporting Hillary Clinton by a nearly 2-to-1 margin.

Clinton lost despite spending more than Trump, but he wouldn’t have won without raising truckloads of money just like any other candidate taking advantage of the “rigged” system. “In the presidential race, both major-party nominees ended up having lots of money,” says David Donnelly, president of the campaign finance reform group Every Voice. “At the top level, it’s not about having the most money, but about having enough to stay afloat.”

And dark money played a dramatically underappreciated role in key down-ballot races, the ones that ensured a Republican majority in both the House and Senate. Outside groups spent $1.4 billion in the 2016 cycle, about 40 percent beyond the already stratospheric levels of 2012. The Koch brothers and their network, for instance, sat out the presidential race but were reportedly on track to drop as much as $250 million almost entirely on congressional races, including $10 million to defend Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania and a nearly $1 million injection to save Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson from Russ Feingold, an advocate of campaign finance reform. Toomey and Johnson, considered two of the weakest GOP incumbents, both won close races.

A huge amount of this unfettered spending came in the final weeks of the campaign, when there was no chance voters would find out about it before they cast their ballots. In October, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell helped raise a last-ditch $25 million for two groups affiliated with him, the Senate Leadership Fund and One Nation. Those groups’ money bombs, like the Kochs’, played a decisive role in multiple Senate races. So, too, did spending by the liberal nonprofit Majority Forward that benefited newly elected Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada and Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire. It wasn’t immediately known where much of this last-minute infusion came from; in the case of the dark-money groups One Nation and Majority Forward, we will never know, since they’re not subject to even the limited disclosure rules that apply to super-PACs. But you can bet McConnell, Cortez Masto, and Hassan won’t forget. “On both sides you have instances where people are going to the Senate and they know who funded these groups but the public doesn’t,” says Robert Maguire, a researcher at the Center for Responsive Politics, which tracks election cash.

All the while, the nation’s political-money watchdogs have been in shambles. The Federal Election Commission is a “failure,” according to Ann Ravel, a commissioner and former chair. “Because of that,” she told me, “we see a campaign where all of the candidates…are thinking that there’s not a cop on the beat.” The IRS, which is supposed to keep tabs on dark-money groups, has seen its funding plummet by $900 million since 2010. One senior aide in Washington told me the agency is so pinched it can’t afford to replace broken clocks, much less duel with sophisticated political operatives and campaign lawyers. “With the Republicans in Congress basically disarming the IRS, they’ve made it safe for everybody” to push the limits of the law, says Marcus Owens, a lawyer and former director of the IRS division that oversees political nonprofits. “The Democratic Party is not going to go great lengths to disrupt that effort because they’re using it as well.”

Political money, in other words, is flowing freely in ways not seen since the pre-Watergate era. And there is little evidence to suggest President Trump has any interest in fixing the system. In his first days as the president-elect, he chose a top donor to lead his inauguration committee, stocked his transition team with corporate lobbyists, and floated several multimillionaire donors for Cabinet positions.

Funny how we haven't been getting round the clock coverage about the massive flood of unaccountable billionaire money or the fact that both parties have more or less let the IRS going to poo poo meaning there's effectively no oversight of campaign spending whatsoever.

mila kunis
Jun 10, 2011
AJE did a small summary on the russiagate hysteria

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ih-OEW3SbQg

Ytlaya
Nov 13, 2005


This article seems to care a lot about the framing of Russia's very small-scale actions as "attacks by Russia," but if you're going to use standards that low the US also "attacks" and is "attacked" by countless countries on a regular basis. Like, once you start defining an attack as "people in a country spying on or trying to influence through propaganda another country" it's hardly anything remarkable or uncommon. It also just takes for granted that it's worse when countries defined as "US enemies" do it than when countries that are actually at least as morally bad - but arbitrarily defined as "not enemies" - do it (with Israel being a prime example).

And regardless, it is unquestionable that the way the media dealt with this story is far worse than anything with actual factual basis from the story itself. Pretty much the only thing from "Russiagate" that is even remotely relevant or significant is releasing the DNC e-mails, and that is far less concerning (since the hacking/phishing itself is nothing particularly uncommon, and the solution to it is just "better cybersecurity") than our entire not-explicitly-right-wing mainstream media getting swept up in this insanity for years and repeatedly reporting unverified things or manipulating nonsense into something that sounds sinister.

When it comes to Trump specifically, the Russia angle was always one of the dumbest ones to use against him (since there's plenty of other "normal rich person" corruption to work with), but it still received disproportionate focus because it was one of the few things that could be focused on without also implicating many other politicians and rich/powerful people on "both sides of the aisle."

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


Ytlaya posted:

This article seems to care a lot about the framing of Russia's very small-scale actions as "attacks by Russia," but if you're going to use standards that low the US also "attacks" and is "attacked" by countless countries on a regular basis. Like, once you start defining an attack as "people in a country spying on or trying to influence through propaganda another country" it's hardly anything remarkable or uncommon. It also just takes for granted that it's worse when countries defined as "US enemies" do it than when countries that are actually at least as morally bad - but arbitrarily defined as "not enemies" - do it (with Israel being a prime example).

And regardless, it is unquestionable that the way the media dealt with this story is far worse than anything with actual factual basis from the story itself. Pretty much the only thing from "Russiagate" that is even remotely relevant or significant is releasing the DNC e-mails, and that is far less concerning (since the hacking/phishing itself is nothing particularly uncommon, and the solution to it is just "better cybersecurity") than our entire not-explicitly-right-wing mainstream media getting swept up in this insanity for years and repeatedly reporting unverified things or manipulating nonsense into something that sounds sinister.

When it comes to Trump specifically, the Russia angle was always one of the dumbest ones to use against him (since there's plenty of other "normal rich person" corruption to work with), but it still received disproportionate focus because it was one of the few things that could be focused on without also implicating many other politicians and rich/powerful people on "both sides of the aisle."

Trump loving loves authoritarians, so he leaned directly into the punches on Russia stuff and took every effort to make it obvious he was colluding with Russia on some level and that this was cool and good because he's the smartest president in history. Never mind that "Russia bad" has become a major plank for both parties so it attracts the most criticism (the establishment right, who still haven't gotten over the Cold War, and the establishment left, who really don't like Putin's authoritarianism). So it became the biggest attractant for attention and the president's people are basically at a loss to explain or defend his behavior, making the coverage even more breathless.

The Russia thing is also a major part of Trump's total disregard for the emoluments clause, that is, his regular plain corruption.

Meanwhile IT ALSO exposes how dumb American politics are that we have had hearings about Facebook ads that look like they were made with crayons and centrist Democrats were indeed searching for a reason Hillary was betrayed rather than lost a campaign that she ran badly. But, it never the less exposed that social media companies are not our glorious benefactors (ending that 10-year fawning period in the media) and that the the U.S. government's cyber security is weak.

Overall it goes to the idea that Trump's election woke a lot of people out of a stupor and there's now a lot of confusion about what must be done next. This is natural when the Clinton wing of the Democratic party has been ascendant for the last 25 years but can no longer win elections, and the establishment Republicans realized that voters do not give a poo poo about any part of their platform.

Helsing
Aug 23, 2003

DON'T POST IN THE ELECTION THREAD UNLESS YOU :love::love::love: JOE BIDEN
Trump's entire persona was to more or less "lean in" to any criticism. He did the exact same thing when Jeb! tried to attack him over his criticism of George W. Bush and his handling of 9/11. When Bush said "my brother kept us safe" Trump had no problem saying "no he didn't, the attack happened on his watch". That's not something you're supposed to be able to say in front of a Republican primary audience in North Carolina, but he said it and won the debate and went on to win the primary and then the presidency. And I think that's the light in which his comments about the Russians should be read. For Trump any conversation is about domination: when somebody accused him of being friendly with Russia he therefore understood the best response was to embrace the criticism and turn the whole thing back around again so it would stay focused on Hilary and 'but her emails".

Also something that a lot of people cannot quite accept but which is quite obviously true is that a lot of Americans have a stronger and more visceral hatred for some other part of America than they could possibly have toward any foreign country, which is a big part of why trying to associate Trump with Russia wasn't very effective.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




The Glumslinger posted:

https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1113647759100456965

https://twitter.com/PhilipRucker/status/1113647316186083329

Yup, Barr came in and did his job


Guess this is the start of the leaks from people angry its being kept locked up. I wonder how until we get summaries of the summaries

Well looks like Barr is stupid too and went with option lol.

The cfr is pretty clear on the release of report.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

Helsing posted:

Trump's entire persona was to more or less "lean in" to any criticism. He did the exact same thing when Jeb! tried to attack him over his criticism of George W. Bush and his handling of 9/11. When Bush said "my brother kept us safe" Trump had no problem saying "no he didn't, the attack happened on his watch". That's not something you're supposed to be able to say in front of a Republican primary audience in North Carolina, but he said it and won the debate and went on to win the primary and then the presidency. And I think that's the light in which his comments about the Russians should be read. For Trump any conversation is about domination: when somebody accused him of being friendly with Russia he therefore understood the best response was to embrace the criticism and turn the whole thing back around again so it would stay focused on Hilary and 'but her emails".

Also something that a lot of people cannot quite accept but which is quite obviously true is that a lot of Americans have a stronger and more visceral hatred for some other part of America than they could possibly have toward any foreign country, which is a big part of why trying to associate Trump with Russia wasn't very effective.

the russia investigation won't find anything, and if it did it won't be anything important, and if it is talking about it is pointless

Slutitution
Jun 26, 2018

by Nyc_Tattoo

Helsing posted:

Trump's entire persona was to more or less "lean in" to any criticism. He did the exact same thing when Jeb! tried to attack him over his criticism of George W. Bush and his handling of 9/11. When Bush said "my brother kept us safe" Trump had no problem saying "no he didn't, the attack happened on his watch". That's not something you're supposed to be able to say in front of a Republican primary audience in North Carolina, but he said it and won the debate and went on to win the primary and then the presidency.

Just imagine the look on the Bush family's faces in the audience the moment Trump said that along with calling out Dubya's Iraqi WMD lies. They were literally the only two substantive things ever said in the entirety of the 2016 GOP primary "debates". The fact it took a stuttering narcissist to say it makes it even more embarrassing.

Helsing
Aug 23, 2003

DON'T POST IN THE ELECTION THREAD UNLESS YOU :love::love::love: JOE BIDEN

GreyjoyBastard posted:

the russia investigation won't find anything, and if it did it won't be anything important, and if it is talking about it is pointless

Given that most people on this forum treated the entire thing with an embarrassing degree of credulousness I actually think it's extremely important to talk about. This was such an elementary failure of contemporary liberalism that I really think it behooves us to ask how so many people got this so wrong.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Sundae
Dec 1, 2005
I'm just shocked that Mueller's investigation might have some classified information in it. This is my shocked face, as it were was.

Helsing
Aug 23, 2003

DON'T POST IN THE ELECTION THREAD UNLESS YOU :love::love::love: JOE BIDEN
From the Washington Post:

The Washington Post posted:

Members of special counsel Robert S. Mueller III’s team have told associates they are frustrated with the limited information Attorney General William P. Barr has provided about their nearly two-year investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election and whether President Trump sought to obstruct justice, according to people familiar with the matter.

The displeasure among some who worked on the closely held inquiry has quietly begun to surface in the days since Barr released a four-page letter to Congress on March 24 describing what he said were the principal conclusions of Mueller’s still-confidential, 400-page report.

In his letter, Barr said that the special counsel did not establish a conspiracy between the Trump campaign and Russia. And he said that Mueller did not reach a conclusion “one way or the other” as to whether Trump’s conduct in office constituted obstruction of justice.

Absent that, Barr told lawmakers that he concluded the evidence was not sufficient to prove that the president obstructed justice.

But members of Mueller’s team have complained to close associates that the evidence they gathered on obstruction was alarming and significant.

“It was much more acute than Barr suggested,” said one person, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the subject’s sensitivity.

The New York Times

The New York Times posted:

The officials and others interviewed declined to flesh out why some of the special counsel’s investigators viewed their findings as potentially more damaging for the president than Mr. Barr explained, although the report is believed to examine Mr. Trump’s efforts to thwart the investigation. It was unclear how much discussion Mr. Mueller and his investigators had with senior Justice Department officials about how their findings would be made public. It was also unclear how widespread the vexation is among the special counsel team, which included 19 lawyers, about 40 F.B.I. agents and other personnel.

Wow it sounds like this case is about to blow wide open!

Ytlaya
Nov 13, 2005

This is kind of another perfect example of bad reporting on this. "Some members on the team said a thing" being used to heavily imply "therefore Barr must have misrepresented the report which actually vindicated our expectations in some way" despite no actual specifics.

Helsing posted:

Given that most people on this forum treated the entire thing with an embarrassing degree of credulousness I actually think it's extremely important to talk about. This was such an elementary failure of contemporary liberalism that I really think it behooves us to ask how so many people got this so wrong.

I don't think there's anything that complex about it. Most liberals are just normal people, just like conservatives, and are just as susceptible to being sucked into their ideologically-acceptable Fox News-like media environments.

Sodomy Hussein posted:

Meanwhile IT ALSO exposes how dumb American politics are that we have had hearings about Facebook ads that look like they were made with crayons and centrist Democrats were indeed searching for a reason Hillary was betrayed rather than lost a campaign that she ran badly. But, it never the less exposed that social media companies are not our glorious benefactors (ending that 10-year fawning period in the media) and that the the U.S. government's cyber security is weak.

I actually think the "Democrats looking for an excuse" angle, while true, is kind of overstated and that the poor journalism surrounding "RussiaGate" is far more concerning than anything else (and likely motivated as much by liberal viewers wanting to see it as any sort of top-down Democratic Party desires). There's really not much excuse for the degree of terrible reporting that occurred in liberal-aligned media, that was frequently outright false or completely unsubstantiated. I think that Matt Taibbi was correct when he mentioned one of the problems with our current media environment being that, because it's split along partisan lines, people never actually see fact-checking of stuff from "their side." Liberal media has no incentive to prominently publish when stuff they reported about Trump/Russia was false, so that reporting only shows up in right-wing or non-mainstream media most liberals never see. And likewise, liberal media frequently fact-checks the various wrong things conservative media says, but conservatives obviously don't see it (or take it seriously). Both sides have completely immersed themselves in these closed media universes, and I think that the liberal side of this has become far worse post-Trump.

Helsing
Aug 23, 2003

DON'T POST IN THE ELECTION THREAD UNLESS YOU :love::love::love: JOE BIDEN

Ytlaya posted:

I don't think there's anything that complex about it. Most liberals are just normal people, just like conservatives, and are just as susceptible to being sucked into their ideologically-acceptable Fox News-like media environments.

A central premise of liberal democracy is the efficacy of a free press acting as a guardian against corrupt politicians, interests and institutions. The fact the media is actively making these problems worse is an extremely serious problem that the current system cannot solve. Events like Russia-gate should be pushing people toward more radical solutions - "radical" in the traditional sense of the word, which says that we must get to the 'root' of problems rather than their surface level manifestations.

quote:

I actually think the "Democrats looking for an excuse" angle, while true, is kind of overstated and that the poor journalism surrounding "RussiaGate" is far more concerning than anything else (and likely motivated as much by liberal viewers wanting to see it as any sort of top-down Democratic Party desires). There's really not much excuse for the degree of terrible reporting that occurred in liberal-aligned media, that was frequently outright false or completely unsubstantiated. I think that Matt Taibbi was correct when he mentioned one of the problems with our current media environment being that, because it's split along partisan lines, people never actually see fact-checking of stuff from "their side." Liberal media has no incentive to prominently publish when stuff they reported about Trump/Russia was false, so that reporting only shows up in right-wing or non-mainstream media most liberals never see. And likewise, liberal media frequently fact-checks the various wrong things conservative media says, but conservatives obviously don't see it (or take it seriously). Both sides have completely immersed themselves in these closed media universes, and I think that the liberal side of this has become far worse post-Trump.

The Democrats looking for excuses and the poor journalism from the media are not two alternative explanations, they are the same explanation described in different ways. I also think you're overlooking the extent to which the media has used this to their own ends: the panic over Russian bots has become an all purpose excuse to justify cracking down on non-traditional forms of media. Remember Prop or Not? Or the move to start actively managing and controlling what is discussed and shared on social media? The Russia-gate narrative has been seized upon as an excuse to shore up the reputation of the mainstream media and to try and justify herding people back toward traditional sources of news.

Some of this probably isn't deliberate. It's not as though there's some central conspiracy directing everyone to drum up panic over Russia. But let's not ignore the extent to which the overlapping interests of these different groups create incentives that would make a formal conspiracy redundant. The Democrats and the media don't really need to actively coordinate too much because their interests at a higher level align closely enough that they can each just act out of their individual selfish motivations and it will, to borrow a phrase, as though an invisible hand were guiding them toward protecting the endless cyclone of corruption and graft that is the American establishment.

Also notice how just by talking about the "establishment" being corrupt I now sound dangerously close to some Tucker Carlson fan, don't I? After two years of Russia-gate it's remarkable how well the media has trained liberals to react to any sweeping criticism of the media or government as sinister evidence of a red-brown alliance. That's a habit of thought that is going to stick around long after Russia-gate has been forgotten. Liberals are increasingly viewing mainstream American institutions as bulwarks against racist populism (how they square this with their growing recognition of America's fundamentally racist history is am ystery to me but somehow they do it). In previous versions of this thread there were numerous liberal posters arguing that Russia is the greatest threat to the globe right now and is behind a massive upsurge in racist populism - the usually unspoken but implicit implication here being that American state power is therefore the only force in the world that can hold back the rising tide of Russian sponsored fascism. So we end up with the American pseudo-left arguing that America must maintain its vast military empire to hold off the slavic menace. We're apparently not allowed to criticize NATO anymore because if we do that we're somehow siding with Trump and the racists or something.

The fact is Russia-gate was very successful in its intended purpose and we're going to be stuck with its legacy for the foreseeable future. A huge number of liberals have been trained to view any systemic critique of American power or corruption in the government as associated with Fox News style racism. I don't think that is going away any time soon and its a very dangerous attitude.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Awfully quiet in this thread today. How does that Mel Brooks joke go? We Romans, we gotta lotta gods, only thing we don't have a god for is premature ejaculation.

But I hear ones coming too soon.

Peacoffee
Feb 11, 2013


I feel like some of these people might want to redact their statements.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

greenwald status: totally exonerated fully vindicated

Mia Wasikowska
Oct 7, 2006

i agree with glen, i also thought they would get carter page. lamo

Mia Wasikowska
Oct 7, 2006

seems like papadopoulos was an israeli agent. kinda interesting i guess, maybe people knew that

Helsing
Aug 23, 2003

DON'T POST IN THE ELECTION THREAD UNLESS YOU :love::love::love: JOE BIDEN
So Mueller's report more or less openly states that there was no viable way for the executive branch to hold itself accountable.



Of course some of us warned of this back in 2017

quote:

Thanks to the constitution and the period it was drafted in Trump is effectively an elected king. However (and the founders didn't anticipate this when they vested all these kingly powers in the office of President) he's a king operating in a highly partisan system with opposing political parties. So unlike most heads of state the office of President is very politicized and also has substantial political power. He's got the democratic mandate of a head of government combined with the executive independence and prerogatives of a head of state.

That means in essence that he can impede any judicial attempts to obstruct him. Not only can he fire just about anyone involved in the investigation, he can also issue unconditional pardons. The executive branch was never supposed to check its own power, that responsibility lies with Congress. Except when this system was drafted Congress wasn't supposed to be dominated by a political party whose own success is largely dependent on the success of the President. So the system is broken: the only institution with the constitutional power to check the President is Congress, and Congress is unlikely to exercise that function as long as it is dominated by Republicans.

Helsing
Aug 23, 2003

DON'T POST IN THE ELECTION THREAD UNLESS YOU :love::love::love: JOE BIDEN
Though apparently Trump did his best to get himself charged and part of Mueller's strained reasoning for not charging him just hinges on the fact he didn't have sufficient sway over his own staffers:





If nothing else the Mueller report will certainly furnish us with more details of Trump's chaotic first couple years in office.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

BrandorKP posted:

Awfully quiet in this thread today.

What is there to talk about, the Republican cop investigated the Republican President and said "gee here's all this evidence of crimes, but how can we really ever know what it means, I guess we can't charge him with anything", exactly like every time the cops investigate themselves and say "okay yes he shot that unarmed man on the ground with his hands in the air crying 'don't shoot I am not armed' and then lied about what happened in his report and then bragged about it later, but who knows it might not have been murder in his heart, no charges recommended" which is unchanged from what was said itt last week.

VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 19:46 on Apr 18, 2019

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




VitalSigns posted:

What is there to talk about,

I expect something along the lines following question to be asked when they bring Mueller in to testify:

If this were any other individual than the President would you have recommended prosecution for obstruction of justice?

Whatever the response it's going to be the news and probably will determine the story.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

I can already tell you the answer "I can't speculate on hypotheticals" but sure call him in and ask him

Helsing
Aug 23, 2003

DON'T POST IN THE ELECTION THREAD UNLESS YOU :love::love::love: JOE BIDEN

BrandorKP posted:

I expect something along the lines following question to be asked when they bring Mueller in to testify:

If this were any other individual than the President would you have recommended prosecution for obstruction of justice?

Whatever the response it's going to be the news and probably will determine the story.

Who gives a poo poo about any of this? In the end this turned out to be a bunch of palace intrigue between rival factions of a fundamentally broke and horrible government. All this empty speculation about the report was a massive self indulgence by liberals that came with huge opportunity costs.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




That would determine too wouldn't it.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Helsing posted:

Who gives a poo poo about any of this?

Seems like a lot of people. How long they'll give a poo poo for is the more important question.

Helsing
Aug 23, 2003

DON'T POST IN THE ELECTION THREAD UNLESS YOU :love::love::love: JOE BIDEN
That was a rhetorical question. I'm well aware that people give a poo poo and I'm saying its a petty self indulgent habit that has done real harm.

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PIZZA.BAT
Nov 12, 2016


:cheers:


Helsing posted:

That was a rhetorical question. I'm well aware that people give a poo poo and I'm saying its a petty self indulgent habit that has done real harm.

so we should ignore executive abuses of power because when actual leftists are running for office they’ll certainly hold back

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