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EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref


Bit weird that Corbyn kicks out the Jews in a couple of years but can't ban Countdown until later

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EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref


It's not. It doesn't use constituency-based polling, also trying to apply polling figures to seats is sketchy at best.

EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref


Hahaha loving hell. What is he trying to achieve here? There's no way he'll win.

EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref

Reminder that the Tories literally cannot pass a bill giving themselves a break for a conference, never mind some regressive bullshit voter ID (it'll be part of the clearly political Queen's Speech and then immediately forgotten).

I had a nightmare last night the tories won a 150+ majority and it was loving awful.

EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref

Robot Mil posted:

Is anyone anywhere genuinely thinking that a deal will be reached now? I’m curious what people who voted leave thinking we’d strike some kind of deal are thinking now. Everything seems to have been taken over by no deal screeching though I’m not even sure where I’d find those people.

There's two questions: can Johnson get a deal with the EU (potentially, considering he's currently trying to renegotiate the exact deal that May got) and can that deal be passed by Parliament (unlikely, they rejected that deal three times).

There's a bit of cause for concern with a number of the Tory splitters making noises that they would support a deal but... I don't think there's any more votes for it than there was last time it was put in front of Parliament.

The Benn Act kicks in on Saturday if no agreement is reached by then, so there's still time for bullshit.

EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref

DesperateDan posted:

Anyone know much about contents insurance?


Such as if your son throws a bottle of vinegar through your nice TV and it let all the colours out- is it worth claiming for it or are they gonna gently caress me when it comes to renewals





It's been one of those days tbh

Used to work for an insurance company (please don't hate me).

A single claim on a TV is unlikely to affect your renewal much. To give you the industry secrets claims are usually given points and they then rate on how many points you have. A single accidental damage claim is going to either be under the threshold or barely above it. I dunno your financial situation is but I wouldn't expect it to go up by more than a tenner for the year.

It is worth checking your policy to make sure it's covered first.

EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref

It's important to state that there are two votes planned: a vote approving the deal, and then the vote on the Withdrawal Act. The first was amended and went through on a nod, the second hasn't happened.

EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref

Is Joris doing some Sov Citizen bullshit by saying "the letter wasn't SIGNED so it doesn't count!"

Does he think that'll work

It's fairly clear the EU will just wait to see what happens Monday/Tuesday then allow an extension.

EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref

Firos posted:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1185989844281020418?s=20
This thread is just filled with reasons why the Tories have shot themselves in the foot.

This is really interesting. To summarise for everyone who doesn't want to read the thread:

The Tories are massively, incredibly hosed. The motion to approve the deal (as amended) was passed on Saturday. That means there's no way the Speaker will allow any sort of meaningful vote on it tomorrow - it has already been discussed, debated, and approved in the eyes of the House. The amendment means that the only way the deal gets approved is if the WAB gets passed on Tuesday/Wednesday.

However, to bring this to the House the Government has to get it's programme approved. Usually this is just on a nod but, with the way things are shaking out this could go to a division and the government could lose - or, it could be approved with conditions. Either way, if the WAB isn't brought forward and approved this week the Government will have to accept an extension to comply with the Benn Act. If it is brought forward it is likely to be amended to include a Customs Union which won't fly with the EU and Joris won't be able to square with the Tory party.

Then there's the Queen's Speech, which the Government could also lose but who the gently caress knows what happens with that.

So the key things to look out for tomorrow/Tuesday:

1) Is the programme motion approved? This'll be the first one, I think as soon as the Commons opens tomorrow? Either way, if this fails then we're in uncharted territory

2) Does the Speaker refuse any sort of Meaningful Vote? Almost certainly yes but expect JRM to get told off

3) If the programme is approved does the Customs Union amendment pass? If yes we could see the government pull the bill again because they know they can't do it.

4) When does the Queen's Speech vote happen and what happens if/when they lose? I don't see any reason why it will pass, for the opposition it's an easy opportunity to kick Joris when he's down and for the rebels it's not as if Joris needs to do anything if he loses.

EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref

ronya posted:

I'd still hold on to the death-cult pamphlets

all plans are gambling on a forecast of how the DUP, that bastion of consistency and resolve, would respond to an interacting thicket of amendments, because it still remains the case that the deal is suspected to have the votes if it somehow dodges the amendments. And these are amendments that people have had less than two days to hammer out and sync with colleagues

I don't really agree that CON really flubbed it by walking out, in the sense that Johnson really wants that People vs Parliament election and is just rolling dice to while away the time until an opportune moment to call for an early GE

I don't really think walking out on the vote really had an impact at all. All it would have meant is that there would be another defeat which, really, doesn't do anything for anyone.


Steve2911 posted:

What actually does happen if the Queen's speech loses?

Nothing thanks to the FTPA.

EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref

Mr Luxury Yacht posted:

So wait, what mechanism can he call an election on? I thought you guys changed it so you could only attach confidence votes to like, budget bills.

He cannot without a vote, which requires a 2/3rd majority, which he will not get without Labour votes, which he will not get without an extension.

EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref

Steve2911 posted:

Surely Johnson's decision to pause the legislation means it's pretty drat likely we'll get the extension?

Absolutely, it's only a matter of how long.

Joris could secure a smallish extension that wouldn't be long enough to hold a GE (say, a month) in which he thinks there's enough time to debate, amend, and approve the bill.

Or the EU could say nah 3 months again.

EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref

It's also worth mentioning that going into Committee Stage might actually be a good thing if amendments can be passed which would kill it for the Tories).

EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref

chestnut santabag posted:

This could be interpreted as Labour MPs not supporting an GE specifically this very moment as the extension needs to be confirmed first but gently caress knows with these so called reporters and their "sources"

Reporter: do you want an election
Anonymous Labour MP: No-
Reporter: excellent let's tweet that out
Anonymous Labour MP: -until we get an extension from the EU which guarantees we won't crash out with no deal oh he hung up :(

EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref

ronya posted:

it isn't normal to whip before officially deciding something, and if it was really about NDB it would be a whip against, not to abstain

it is possible the shadow cabinet agreed to whip but Corbyn had his own read on the meeting minutes

in any case the EU27 response is soon and any ambiguity will last at most another day... right??

They're whipping abstain until the EU makes a decision. It's a lot easier to go from Abstain to Yes (if a long extension is granted) or Abstain to No (if not) then it is to go from Yes to No or No to Yes.

EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref


This actually sounds pretty reasonable. Dissolves Parliament next Monday so no time to slam through the WAB, calls it off if there's only a short extension offered (though quite how that would work is to be decided), election when there's students about.

Would be interesting to see how Labour react.

EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref

Jimbola posted:

Labour are being utterly pathetic here. We should just go for the election. We can't dodge it forever.

Yeah let's just schedule an election which specifically disenfranchises a large part of the public who would in large numbers back Labour.

EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref

Pesmerga posted:

The student thing has been disproven already. This is just the next fallback position after the last one. Now he’s saying it will be dark.

Exactly how has it been disproven?

EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref

sebzilla posted:

SNP want to give the vote to 16 year olds and EU citizens.

Labour should be all over that

I was saying in Discord today how I think there is an issue of time (in getting people registered, updating the Electoral Roll etc.). However, it would be a very good thing to secure votes for the next election. Put it on the manifesto and all but tie up the 14-16 year old vote for the election that follows.

EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref

Pesmerga posted:

Becau


By various academics indicating when their terms end, and it being after the 12th.

Yeah students aren't known to ditch uni early or anything. That never happens.

EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref

bump_fn posted:

what about EU citizens voting?

Not selected.

EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref

Barry Foster posted:

poo poo. That would've turned the tide, I was briefly optimistic about this election even if it was a massive long shot

I'm not sure a couple of million 16/17 year olds would be the deciding factor in this election. It's not the end of the world.

EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref

ThomasPaine posted:

Really disappointed that the 16/17 amendment wasn't selected

It was never really likely to be. A one line bill for an election has a very specific scope: have an election on date x. Changing the franchise laws to go along with that is way too much to do in a single bill - plus the Electoral Commission have said that they need longer to prepare.

EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref

goddamnedtwisto posted:

Bercow's just returned and the Deputy Speaker got caught on mic saying "I don't know what to do".

DIVISIOOOOON!

She said "it wasn't that I don't know what to do" and then the mic cut out, I think she was letting the Bercow do the whole thing.

EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref

SNP have abstained on the third reading.

EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref

Thom12255 posted:

Having an election in the middle of Uni exam time is gonna suck for students.

It's (mostly) after the end of exams which was the whole issue of getting uni students to vote.

EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref

Steve2911 posted:

So are we gonna try to trick the gammons into voting BXP or is that too risky?

Joris has told the 1922 committee that they are campaigning on his poo poo deal so... yeah.

EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref

In the bizarre case that the entire country gets brain spiders and votes the Lib Dems into power, who even would take up cabinet positions? They don't have enough members currently to have a full shadow cabinet do they? Are we expecting complete nobodies to become Foreign Secretary?

EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref

Borrovan posted:

Struggling to picture what kind of stupid loving questions LOTO Johnson would ask anyway

If Joris loses the election he is out as LOTO anyway, there's absolutely no way the Tories keep him in opposition. He was only brought in because a) there was nobody else and b) they thought he could Deliver Brexit through his sheer waffle.

If they lose, and presumably have to deal with a no Brexit scenario (either through a solid revoke or a second referendum) then the party will collapse and they'll have to rebuild under someone else. No idea who that would be.

edit: finally joined Labour and threw £50 at them and Momentum because I have the money. I live in the Southampton Itchen constituency so I'll do what I can to swing those 30 voters back.

EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref

I absolutely love how we are days into this campaign and it's the loving Yellow Tories who have been caught out shamelessly trying to lie to the voters. Meanwhile Labour are raising insane amount of money, seeing huge spikes in membership, and Momentum is doing the same. Have the Tories even acknowledged it?

EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref

painted into a coroner posted:

If Bercow is standing down today, what happens to the Speaker? Will he still be acting Speaker until a new one is chosen or will the last few days be dedicated to all parties attempting and failing to appoint a replacement?

I recall that the attempts to stop the abortion and equal marriage laws in Stormont the other week were thwarted by there not being an official speaker to conduct the session. Will it be similar?

Ken Clarke will step in until either a new speaker is elected or Parliament is suspended.

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EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref

Tsaedje posted:

The tories are still putting their manifesto together and it'll piss off half of them with line 1 being HARD BREXIT OR BUST. Labour have been ready to go since before the conference season, with actual thought out policies.

Boris' clown act doesn't work when he's supposed to appear 'prime ministerial' and all he's got other than that is sour faced poshery. They've got themselves convinced that because their echo chamber only cares about Brexit that the general public isn't sick to death of hearing about it and will welcome hearing all the actual ideas Labour have. Even if they're not sold on them at first it's something different to grab the attention.

Joris told the 1922 committee they would be campaigning on his deal, not a hard Brexit. Whether or not he sticks to that is a different question, but either way it'll piss of half the Tories.

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