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Ugly In The Morning posted:Bear in mind those numbers are coming from the PRC, who were denying that there was person to person transmission at all until yesterday. I'd take anything they say with a grain of salt. Yeah I came to post this. I don’t think we’d ever get the real numbers from China.
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# ¿ Jan 22, 2020 00:36 |
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# ¿ May 11, 2024 12:09 |
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Coolguye posted:Yeah if anything the sickened are higher and the overall lethality lower because funny thing it turns out to be pretty hard to hide a corpse and when one is found people tend to start asking questions Let me introduce you to this little country called China that is exceptionally good at it!
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# ¿ Jan 22, 2020 21:46 |
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Looks like the plan worked out great!
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# ¿ Jan 22, 2020 23:19 |
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I watched contagion on the flight back from London last week and it’s literally almost the same premise lol. GG China
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# ¿ Jan 23, 2020 00:25 |
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https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1220476358826119168?s=20 It’s NBD don’t worry. Ignore the people dropping dead in the streets. Honestly though how much pressure do we think China has over the WHO? There is no way China wants this blowing up so it’s absolutely in their best interest to do everything they can do downplay it.
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# ¿ Jan 24, 2020 00:28 |
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Ugly In The Morning posted:A lot. The WHO had a bunch of positive stuff to say about traditional Chinese medicine last year. TCM is, at best, placebo. At worst, it’s straight up poison. Most of it isn’t even traditional, it’s a bunch of stuff that was made up in the 50s. Yeah that is what I figured. I remember them endorsing the TCM poo poo too.
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# ¿ Jan 24, 2020 01:32 |
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hakimashou posted:The ambulance says Suizhou City which is 100 miles from Wuhan Wtf it can drive now?? We are hosed.
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# ¿ Jan 24, 2020 01:36 |
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numberoneposter posted:how about not eating bat soup in the future Or Koalas, or Wolf puppies.
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# ¿ Jan 25, 2020 02:31 |
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The flu shot should just be free for everyone.
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# ¿ Jan 25, 2020 04:45 |
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# ¿ Jan 25, 2020 05:22 |
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# ¿ Jan 25, 2020 05:59 |
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bob dobbs is dead posted:WHO estimate of R0 is 1.5 to 2.5. I think it's just one the upper end of scale. Incubation of 9 days instead of the 4 days the scary R0 paper changes math quite a lot The WHO also endorsed TCM. I don’t really have any faith in the WHO at this point.
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# ¿ Jan 25, 2020 06:11 |
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Jamsta posted:Imperial College London estimates the current trans rate is 2.6 This is interesting but there is a lot of missing data and assumptions made
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# ¿ Jan 25, 2020 13:31 |
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Ugly In The Morning posted:The R0 is how many people you expect each sick person to infect. So the 1.5 means one person would infect 1.5 people. 2.6 is pretty high.
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# ¿ Jan 25, 2020 13:56 |
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Honestly though watch the movie contagion if it’s on streaming or you can find it. It actually explains a lot of this pretty well. It’s not a terrible movie either!
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# ¿ Jan 25, 2020 14:18 |
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Son of Rodney posted:man saying a virus is " a 2.6" is the lamest way to classify these things lol you ain’t wrong This is the scene that explains it decently. https://youtu.be/VrATMF_FB9M
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# ¿ Jan 25, 2020 14:30 |
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Perfectly healthy and normal to wish death on my political enemies.
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# ¿ Jan 25, 2020 23:52 |
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Cured actually means “totally didn’t die but symptoms are gone” right??
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# ¿ Jan 26, 2020 02:27 |
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From everything I’ve seen so far all the numbers for R0 seem to be from information given out by China which we all know is dubious at best. There needs to be more research done by people not in China.
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# ¿ Jan 26, 2020 02:43 |
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How much tiger penis did they have to eat to be “cured”??
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# ¿ Jan 26, 2020 02:49 |
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13Pandora13 posted:The R0 estimate from the WHO is around 1.4-2.5 which is roughly in line with "bad year" seasonal flu outbreaks. This year's flu has been pretty bad for pediatric deaths; the coronavirus so far has mostly killed people over the age of 65 with only a handful in the 30-50 range. Like yes, exercise good handwashing and stop touching your loving face, but panicking over this is not helping anyone. It's just making things worse for healthcare providers. Again though those estimates are using data that China has provided which is dubious at best.
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# ¿ Jan 26, 2020 03:02 |
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13Pandora13 posted:There has been a great deal more transparency about this outbreak (ironically, because of how hosed they were during SARS) and we have AI learning now that doesn't depend on official statements at all https://www.wired.com/story/ai-epidemiologist-wuhan-public-health-warnings/ If you say so but I will remain skeptical of the data that’s been provided so far.
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# ¿ Jan 26, 2020 04:20 |
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Charlz Guybon posted:There are no known infections in Africa or India, right? I think the issue is the incubation period seems to be pretty long (10-14 days last I heard) so we are still pretty early to start seeing cases in some of these places.
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# ¿ Jan 26, 2020 05:09 |
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LibCrusher posted:This is the poo poo that causes the real damage in a pandemic situation. People get freaked out and stop doing stuff so the economy tanks. Counter point. Sorry you’ll be dead in two weeks.
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# ¿ Jan 26, 2020 05:59 |
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i am harry posted:I feel like, statistically, as we look at how many people leaving Wuhan have ended up in different countries and possibly positive for the virus, there’s no way the infection numbers are only in the thousands...there must be thousands of people infected who cannot afford to fly out of Wuhan, or have no reason to leave, for every one person who can and is also infected. The report I linked last night said that only 5% of cases have actually been identified. Add to the fact that the poor dont generally go to the hospital the number is most likely significantly higher. 60,000-70,000
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# ¿ Jan 26, 2020 06:37 |
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i am harry posted:It has to be right? The chances that 1200 people in a city of 11million get infected and then 40 of them depart for all corners of the globe is absurd! While its not impossible it’s statistically unlikely that is the case. We have a few more days before we see the real impact if non Chinese travelers start to show symptoms.
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# ¿ Jan 26, 2020 06:53 |
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Burt Sexual posted:Trumps gonna win too If the dems don’t get their poo poo together this is probably true. Welcome to hell world.
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# ¿ Jan 26, 2020 06:55 |
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RaffyTaffy posted:Welp its now in OC. It’s 100% in LA it just hasn’t been confirmed yet.
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# ¿ Jan 26, 2020 08:57 |
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poty posted:The poor don’t go to the hospital in the US, in most places they do AFAIK not in China either actually even less so vs the US
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# ¿ Jan 26, 2020 09:25 |
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nankeen posted:lmao i just started reading this thread, clicked from halfway through page 1 to page 15 (as is standard practice) and the jump from calm to distraught was a rollercoaster I mean you can see the trajectory this virus has taken...
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# ¿ Jan 26, 2020 09:40 |
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Charlz Guybon posted:We're boned Yeah that’s what people were afraid of.
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# ¿ Jan 26, 2020 09:50 |
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Charlz Guybon posted:This dude exposed hundreds of people Or more.
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# ¿ Jan 26, 2020 10:15 |
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Ratios and Tendency posted:Pfft, 2.6 is some weak-rear end poo poo. Measles is an 18 and that poo poo is nbd. There is a vaccine for that.
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# ¿ Jan 26, 2020 10:32 |
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Son of Rodney posted:So what's the actual risk of this thing. All I've read suggested that it's a slightly more dangerous flu, but nothing really ground-breaking? You can also catch it before someone shows symptoms.
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# ¿ Jan 26, 2020 13:24 |
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spacetoaster posted:
Time for a new goon weight loss thread!
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# ¿ Jan 26, 2020 22:56 |
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https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1221592101445668865
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# ¿ Jan 27, 2020 01:53 |
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Updated R0 and not for the better.... https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.916395v1 quote:We estimated that the mean R0 ranges from 3.30 (95%CI: 2.73-3.96) to 5.47 (95%CI: 4.16-7.10) associated with 0-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate. With rising report rate, the mean R0 is likely to be below 5 but above 3. Conclusion: The mean estimate of R0 for the 2019-nCoV ranges from 3.30 (95%CI: 2.73-3.96) to 5.47 (95%CI: 4.16-7.10), and significantly larger than 1. Our findings indicate the potential of 2019-nCoV to cause outbreaks.
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# ¿ Jan 27, 2020 08:33 |
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RichardA posted:"preprint first posted online Jan. 24, 2020". This is the old estimates. Guess I can’t read dates correctly! Disregard!
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# ¿ Jan 27, 2020 08:42 |
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This was published today. https://promedmail.org/promed-post/?id=20200126.6918012 quote:These numbers fit very nicely to case data available as of January 22, 2020, but unfortunately, they are wrong. The abrupt surge in confirmed case counts (to 1423 cases as of January 26, 2020) is not compatible with the growth process described above, certainly not with a SARS-compatible generation time of 6-10 days. Indeed, the authors of the MRC model (3) noted in one of their earlier reports that the volume of observed exported cases in countries outside China suggested a much larger underlying epidemic than had been reported at that time, and this epidemic may have begun a month prior to the recognition of the market-associated outbreak, consistent with the reported timing of viral emergence based on phylogenetic analyses (5). The authors of several analyses cited above have incorporated the MRC estimates of under-reporting in order to fit their models (2, 3, 5). A second line of evidence suggesting undercounting of cases relates to the older age of cases (median 59 years in early reports), and the even older age of fatal cases (averaging around 75 years in the first 17 deaths) as contrasted with a median age of 37 or 38 years in China. Increased age in cases as compared to the population as a whole suggests that younger (likely milder) cases have been under-reported. As such, it would seem likely that at least part of the sudden apparent growth in case counts does not reflect changes in transmission, but rather increasing ascertainment of previously undercounted cases.
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# ¿ Jan 27, 2020 09:37 |
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# ¿ May 11, 2024 12:09 |
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Drone_Fragger posted:heard that 2000 people were in contact with infectious chinese persons who flew back to the UK before the ban on leaving came into force, so basically the UK is now plague island. the government is covering it up so far but the hospitals are already turning people away and the ambulance service no longer responds to calls. My S/O works for the NHS and I dunno what this dude is talking about besides that first point which I’ve heard that they are trying to track those 2000 people down.
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# ¿ Jan 28, 2020 01:12 |