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Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.

Inceltown posted:

Times person of the year: Coronavirus.

Times person of the year will be Dr. Fauci. Trump will tantrum so hard he'll stroke out and that weird horse guy will be pres

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Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.
Just had a thought: hurricane season is coming. Are chuds going to protest evacuation? They're essentially being forced from their homes, right? Are they going to hold up "give me liberty and death" signs?

Florida's response as well as the other southeast chud states combined with potential mass evacuations uh hoo boy hurricane season is going to be a doozy :suspense:

Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.

quote:

The 2019 novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) target nucleic acids are not detected.


Yay! I'm Covid free!

Now I just have to hope I don't somehow catch roni during my surgery.

Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.

Nashville residents travel to other counties to shop and eat posted:

FRANKLIN, Tenn. (WKRN) — It was a beautiful Saturday, perfect for a meal on the patio or strolling shops, but not in Nashville just yet.

“We knew we could come out here, get a breath of fresh air, enjoy the scene, do a little shopping as well,” Ulysses Smith told News 2 as he headed into CoolSprings Galleria in Franklin.

“I was furloughed for three months as well so I’ve really been home,” said Paul Faust, who traveled from Green Hills with his a family for a dinner in Franklin.

It’s simple pleasures such as window shopping or having someone else refill your drink that makes a drive down the interstate worth it.

“To be able to sit and eat somewhere other than our own dinner table, just to be waited on, not have to do the dishes afterward,” Faust explained.

Many say they’re not worried about restaurants and stores social distancing tables and wearing proper protection, as well as people following CDC recommendations.

“You have to do what they ask you to do, whether it’s the face mask, the sanitizer, I’m in the truck so my wife has Lysol wipes and all,” Smith said.

While many businesses wait eagerly in Nashville, those like Casey King are just happy to be with family, celebrating events like her graduation from Lipscomb University.

“None of me and my family have been able to eat out in like two months, so just the fact that we’re all able to be together for one and then eat somewhere nice and get to celebrate me, even though I don’t get to actually walk across the stage, we still get to celebrate, so I’m grateful for that,” King told News 2.

Even if they have to sit at separate tables.



What who could have seen this coming

Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.
I know someone who lives in one of the hardest hit counties in Iowa who insists on taking their 90 some year old dad on a road trip to one of the counties that is open so he can get out of the house :bang:

I seriously have to stop myself from saying "just hold a pillow over his face it'll be quicker". Although this person is actually good hearted in so many other ways they just don't understand the danger so I couldn't bring myself to say it :(

Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.

Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:

Time to reopen everything



Almost all of those things can be prevented with UBI, nationalized healthcare, and robust safety nets.

Concern trolling at its finest.

Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.

386-SX 25Mhz VGA posted:

are cubic/polynomial models a real thing in epidemiology or did some dumbass just click through trendlines until something looked good

"Cubic model prepared by council of economic advisors"

What do you think

Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.

Flesh Forge posted:

so, Texas has had 33,573 cases vs 935 deaths = 2.78% CFR, which is still really suspiciously out of line with all the other states with a lot of cases (even Florida)
related, RIP BNO I liked you


yeah the really abnormally low fatality rate has bothered me for a long while now, even more once it came out that Florida really is interfering with death count.

TN somehow has a 1.6% CFR. I really hate to sound :tinfoil: but I'm convinced my state is flat out lying

We also somehow have a 46% recovery rate. Here's the definition of a recovered case on the TN department of health's website:

"People who are confirmed asymptomatic and have completed their isolation period, or are at least 21 days beyond their first positive test"

We are flat out just counting anyone as recovered as long as it's been 21 days since their covid test without any follow-up to actually see if they're still sick lmao

Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.
In pre-op waiting for surgery. Surgeon didn't wear a mask while talking to me :shepface:

Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.
Made it out of surgery and got home. Husband had to get my prescriptions. Store is packed and no one except the employees and my husband have masks.

Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.

Notorious R.I.M. posted:

I think the end result is that a bunch of other metroplexes end up reopening and then following NYC's model: surge until about 20% infected, then slowly suppress cases. I think Americans are too stupid to suppress cases with 0% herd immunity advantage, but 20% or so seems to be about the proper amount of training wheels since an R(t) < 1.25 is good enough rather than needing < 1.

This will probably peak in June and then be a slow burn down for at least a couple of months. Whether we learn our lesson or kick off another wave is probably region-dependent from there.

Rural places probably linger until they let their guard down then go up in flames when a spark makes its way in.

Herd immunity of 20% would mean R0 is still at 4. You need herd immunity of 70% to bring it down to 1.5 and then over 80% to bring it below 1.

The NY outbreak didn't slow down due to any meaningful change in R0 thanks to herd immunity. It was due to the lockdown actually working.

Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.

Even if the whole "hospitals get more money for covid" thing were true, how do these dumb bitches explain all the excess deaths? These people are dying from something so what is their explanation for it?

Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.

Admiral Ray posted:

it may take a while to reach the critical mass necessary for rapid spread, or it could be that people are falsely identifying the case:


I dunno how much I'd trust this.




They were just looking at CT scans to identify the case?

Googled "broken glass on lung CT scan"

Know what else causes that besides coronaviruses?


pneumocystis pneumonia (PCP/PJP)

cytomegalovirus (CMV) pneumonia

herpes simplex virus (HSV) pneumonia

respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) bronchiolitis: type of infectious bronchiolitis

herpesviridae


eosinophilic pneumonias:

simple pulmonary eosinophilia (SPE): 

idiopathic hypereosinophilic syndrome (IHS): 

acute eosinophilic pneumonia (AEP):

eosinophilic drug reactions: 

idiopathic interstitial pneumonias 

non-specific interstitial pneumonia:

usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP):

cryptogenic organizing pneumonia (COP): 

exudative phase of acute interstitial pneumonia (AIP): 

respiratory bronchiolitis-associated interstitial lung disease (RB-ILD): 

desquamative interstitial pneumonia (DIP):

lymphoid interstitial pneumonia (LIP): 

sarcoidosis (pulmonary manifestations of sarcoidosis)


alveolar edema or pulmonary edema

cardiogenic pulmonary edema

adult respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS)

other causes of non-cardiogenic pulmonary edema

hypersensitivity pneumonitis: especially acute and subacute forms
neoplastic processes with a lepidic proliferation pattern

atypical adenomatous hyperplasia

localized adenocarcinoma

adenocarcinoma in situ or minimally invasive (formerly bronchoalveolar cell carcinoma)

drug toxicity






Not sure I'd trust it either unless they followed that up with PCR tests

Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.
Number of deaths for leading causes of death

Heart disease: 647,457

Cancer: 599,108

Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936

Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201

Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383

Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404

Diabetes: 83,564 Roni 83,807

Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672

Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 50,633

Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.
Do people just not have survival instincts anymore?

Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.

His grandfather literally died from the Spanish flu.

Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.

SKULL.GIF posted:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/14/japan-suicides-fall-sharply-as-covid-19-lockdown-causes-shift-in-stress-factors


Get kids away from bullies at school, cancel bullshit jobs, crush car culture, watch happiness soar?

Impossible. Unthinkable

That can't be right. They said the cure would be worse than the disease

Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.
All the chuds crowing about how if you wear a mask you must be a scared little baby is projection. They refuse to wear a mask because then they will have to admit that this poo poo is serious and it scares them. They hate it when other people wear a mask because it reminds them how scared they actually are deep inside.

Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.

drat I didn't know the results of Trump's dementia screening were leaked

Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.

Thoguh posted:

I was finally able to get my surgery rescheduled to fix my ruptured bicep. The surgery isn't for another three weeks but they are requiring me to go to my primary care doc next week to get a COVID test. The test is on the 27th of May and the surgery is on the 8th of June. I understand the thought behind requiring the test but that's just shy of two weeks before the surgery, which is a lot of time to go from negative to positive.

I know this was pages ago but are they not having you go into isolation between your test and surgery? That was the policy for my surgery. If not then uh yikes and good luck

Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.
Hancock County TN just got its first case. This county is rural and tens of miles away from anything. There's literally nothing there so no one's traveling there. The people who live there are also too poor to travel anywhere else. This is the tip of the iceberg and I predict TN is totally hosed now.

Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.
Ugh I know someone with copd who works at Walmart. Apparently they tried to get an exemption from their doctor for wearing a mask at work "because it's hard to breathe" :bang:

Thank gently caress their doctor basically said "hell no keep wearing masks"

Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.

Dr_0ctag0n posted:

Unless testing is mandated and forced we will not have accurate counts. The virus is asymptomatic or has very minor symptoms in a huge number of confirmed infections so nobody is going out and getting tested.

There was a report of a prison here in TN with over a thousand inmates and staff infected and 98% were totally asymptomatic.

Did you even bother to look up an update?

They were asymptomatic. 3 of those inmates have died already.

Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.

Notorious R.I.M. posted:

While SARS-CoV-2 has a very high R0, it looks like it also may have a very low dispersion factor. That means that it goes off like a bomb in the right places and doesn't really spread evenly at all when the ingredients aren't right. Here's parts from a good thread on it:

https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1262871743972114432

https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1262873604796145665

So covid outbreaks are extremely stochastic. 3/4 times nothing may happen and 1/4 times it may blow up. There may be some environments that are conducive to superspreading or some people that are super spreaders while the median chance of infection remains quite low.

This sort of information combined with the low household attack rate leads me to believe that if people don't spend a prolonged duration with an infected person doing an activity that generates droplets, then they probably won't get infected.

I read in a study somewhere that 80% of secondary cases were caused by only 8% of initial cases.

IIRC that was the case in the first SARS outbreak too. Most people would spread it to maybe 1 other person, usually someone in their household or to a HCW, but then there would be superspreaders that would spread it to like 80-100 other people.

Epidemiologists still don't know if superspreaders are due to different behavior or different physiology (eg viral shedding).

Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.
Someone I know is having a full on wedding and reception.

In Iowa.

In 2 weeks.

Some of the people going are from counties where like 2% of the population have tested positive.

:tif:

Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.
The most likely scenario is that covid will become endemic and due to mutual selective evolutionary pressure over the course of several years, maybe decades, it will eventually become just another mild cold virus like the majority of other coronaviruses.

Humanity had a window of opportunity back in February or March to prevent this if we had all done full rear end lockdowns mass testing and contact tracing but we didn't so welp

Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.

Well actually considering the swine flu pandemic killed less people than seasonal flu I'd say Biden did a pretty good job

I know Biden can in no way take credit for that

Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.

Thoguh posted:

Most people are staying home so I bet we have a bunch of somewhat isolated outbreaks around churches and other similar places but nothing that really does enough to break through. The real question is how much retail and dining goes under if more people don't suddenly decide to start going out again.

Now, when schools and sports start up again in the fall then we'll see some poo poo.

Nah poo poo's going to get wild. Summer months, especially June, are big for weddings. Some of the chud states (Iowa :eyepop:) are allowing weddings to start up again.

Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.

Thoguh posted:

Meh, we never had a huge spike after Easter. There will be some weddings that are superspreader events but they'll get lost in the noise of some churches/gyms/restaurants spreading it. I don't think we're gonna drop but this will cook along all summer while most people work from home, sports and concerts are canceled, and school is out of session. This fall as more offices back fill up, kids go back to school, and we have football games... Then shits gonna get wild.

What are you talking about? If you search "coronavirus Easter" you'll find plenty of articles discussing local and regional Easter spikes around the country. The only reason there wasn't a nationwide spike was because most places still had social distancing orders.

I mean it will probably cook over 4-6 weeks because that's how long secondary and tertiary cases will take to appear but lol if you don't think poo poo's going to be popping by the 4th.

Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.

Bruce Hussein Daddy posted:

sorry y'all I'm reading crazy people forums and I can't help myself

People hate their own cooking so much they would rather die

Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.

Dean of Swing posted:

So when is the infection bump going to hit?

About 1 week for incubation, another week to develop symptoms, get tested and then get results. This would also be the incubation for all the contacts, plus 1 more week for symptoms etc. Although peaks start getting huge when the third generation appears.

So probably about 4-5 weeks.

Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.

KaptainKrunk posted:

the numbers in the southern states are so obviously loving fake

For sure. TN somehow has a 1.6% CFR.

Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.

I lol every day that chuds who call millennials "snowflakes" are throwing tantrums about having to wear masks. It's literally the least inconvenient measure you can take. And it's a hell of a lot less inconvenient than multiple months of lockdown.

Actually that's the stupid part. They want all the businesses to open up but then they also want to take no precautions. You can't have your cake and eat it too ffs

Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud posted:

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1266376032271007749

lol hoo boy if this has been running around the Senate for a while

Gonna go out on a limb and say maybe he had one of the regular rear end coronaviruses and the garbage covid antibody tests have cross reactivity to it. Or it's a false positive.

Perry Mason Jar posted:

Family friend has been on a vent for over a week, unlikely to make it. In his late 70s.

poo poo dude I'm sorry

Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.

Sunny Side Up posted:

With wedding invitations and all this other poo poo now planned for June we had to set an “are we the crazy ones?” date. Picked 4 weeks from Memorial Day. If cases remain stagnant or decreasing after Memorial Day and all this then we gotta go back to some semblance of normal.

Feeling pretty extreme cognitive dissonance/anxiety. Am I paranoid? It’s different from most “nutty” stuff in that I can’t believe it quietly or recommend a good book (“oh that’s not a theory, go read Killing Hope!”).

What data would you base this decision on?

I know some folks having a wedding with about 100 people in about a week. I'll keep you updated on this potential superspreading event and let you know how many of my husband's relatives die.

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Ebola Roulette
Sep 13, 2010

No matter what you win lose ragepiss.
In before June thread

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