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ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

CERTIFIED PRE OWNED TESLA OWNER

greazeball posted:

I feel like someone upthread: when the numbers of new cases per day is finally at something lower than loving crazy number like it is now, then I'll start thinking about doing some indoor or crowded stuff. In about 6 weeks, after my second dose settles in, I'll feel a lot better about going shopping, taking the train and stuff like that. The guilty pleasure I don't know when we'll be able to do again is going to the sauna/baths. I love a day relaxing in saunas and whirlpools and chilling in the sun or shade. It'll be a while before I look at a steam bath with anything but horror.
If "current trends continue" (~25% decline in cases every 2 weeks), then in six weeks US cases should be down about 60% from what they are now.

Of course, maybe they'll decline faster (more people will be vaccinated, warmer weather). Or slower (fewer precautions). Either way the world will be very different in six weeks, and it will definitely vary a lot region to region.

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ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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QuarkJets posted:

You're talking about likelihood of getting infected at all, but that's basically impossible to predict because it's largely behavior based. I think the odds being discussed were "odds of dying of covid-19 after catching it while vaccinated", which is nowhere near one in ten million or whatever

Saros posted:

Of the 40,000 healthcare workers in the study there were of course breakthrough infections but importantly there were zero deaths and only a small handful of serious cases two weeks after first vaccine dose.

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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Pennywise the Frown posted:

You can't read. Or don't understand context. Or at least you don't know what immunity means.
You're the one inventing a new definition of "immunity" here that for some reason requires absolute protection.

The rest of the English-speaking world, meanwhile, is happy to use phrases like:
- All COVID-19 vaccines work with the body’s natural defenses to safely develop immunity to disease.
- It typically takes two weeks after vaccination for the body to build protection (immunity) against the virus that causes COVID-19.

(those two quotes are from the CDC's website, the first thing that comes up if you Google "vaccine immunity")

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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Pennywise the Frown posted:

You know drat well that when the word immunity is used in normal circumstances it means 100% immunity. No one says immune and means, eh, kind of resistant.
No, I don't "know drat well that" because it's not true. Immunity in this context is not some video game term where virus attacks inflict zero particle damage - immunity is the body's immune system's learning process where you don't develop serious subsequent disease.

I'm all in favor of putting aside semantics arguments to argue actual points, but it's not helpful when you going to push an unusual definition and then get furiously angry at everyone else in the thread, the CDC, and related experts when they use standard language.

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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A Fancy Hat posted:

I hate to say it but I've pretty much accepted that some portion of my wife's family will die of covid in the next year because they refuse to get vaccinated or take even the most basic precautions when not forced to.
I don't mean to undermine the importance of containment or vaccination but it's important to note that Covid still has a surprisingly lowish death rate with proper care. Current case fatality rates are under 2%.

So even when a couple dozen people are being total idiots throwing a literal covid party, and they all get it - it's still a coinflip whether anyone actually dies.


This helps explain a lot of the idiocy out there. There are tons of stories of people doing everything wrong, being in a vulnerable group, getting it, and ultimately recovering.

It's a bit like that dumbass you probably know who drove drunk "successfully" a dozen times and thinks it's totally safe - a 2% risk of crashing is really high (several times a year), but 98% of the time things work out ok. People "learn" from that and get really wrong ideas.

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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CaptainSarcastic posted:

An excessive focus on death rates has been part of the problem in getting the virus under control. For a lot of people the odds of dying might be low, but the odds of permanent heart or lung damage, or psychosis, or taste/smell perversion are not well-quantified.
For sure. It's a horrible disease and worth preventing, especially when that's as simple as "get a free shot for yourself". Just don't be too surprised if the idiots you know get it and don't actually face more serious consequences.

To put it in another perspective, the survivablility rate for the elderly is still about 80-90%. That's also about the survivability rate for getting stabbed in the chest, but for some reason we don't have idiots going around saying stabbing old people is no big deal.

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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Platystemon posted:

It’s crazy that the same CDC that’s like “Watch out! There’s polio in Malaysia!” is like “Go on down to Denny’s to gently caress and suck in a pandemic. You deserve it.”
It's also the same CDC that advises everyone to overcook meat products

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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Purgatory Glory posted:

Telling people they were entered into a draw to win a million dollars saw upticks. That pushes the population that stats don't register with. Too dumb to know that covid risk vs any fake vaccine risk cooked up, also too dumb to know they won't win the million bucks. I know of people that will get it once it is clear that travel is restricted if they don't. It's ridiculous, if I genuinely though the vaccine was gonna hurt me I wouldn't bend on it.what kind of character does someone have who puts themselves at a perceived risk because they want to travel?
They should do the lottery draw on live tv with the entire state population and if an unvaxed person wins they announce their name, say "sorry but you're disqualified", then draw again

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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Platystemon posted:

This would be a good idea, but their database is probably incomplete and the person who was wrongly disqualified would sue, and then the person who won on the redraw would sue, and it would all be a big mess.

Better to not let people know if they lost because their name was never in the drawing or was there and simply wasn’t picked.
Still there's gotta be a way to exploit loss aversion somehow. Like maybe not even announce the name of the loser - just get everyone afraid that it might be them who threw away a million bucks by not getting their shot

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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Mush Mushi posted:

68% of the population double jabbed, 60% of hospitalizations double jabbed? I’m fully onboard with the vaccines but can’t we just admit that this is bad news no matter how you wrangle the data?

We’re starting to sound like the dying with covid people.
The subpopulation breakdown tweet post was literally right above yours, you are committing the base rate fallacy all over again.

"68% of the population double-jabbed" is the wrong metric, since the vast majority of hospitalizations are among the elderly who have a much higher rate of vaccination.

https://twitter.com/kennyshirley/status/1417177778013843456

Which is all to say "xx% of hospitalizations double jabbed" isn't necessarily concerning even if it's actually 60 instead of 40.

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1417301374245687296

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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Mush Mushi posted:

Call me crazy but I actually I think that a 68:60 ratio would be quite concerning if that were reality. If the vaccine were working as advertised I’d expect it to be under 20% rather than 60%. But this is all based on bad numbers from the UK science man having an accident so it’s moot now.
68 : 60 might be just fine if 95% of the elderly are vaccinated and the base rate for hospitalizations is that most of them are among the elderly.

That's just a version of simpson's paradox: every single subgroup might have 90% reduction in hospitalization when vaccinated, but the overall sample is heavily biased towards unvaccinated children and vaccinated elderly.

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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Mush Mushi posted:

At the time that the 60% figure came out I was observing that based on the current vaccination rates by age group and published efficacy rates I did not expect to hear that 60% of hospitalizations were fully vaccinated. We now know that that factoid was incorrect. I understand that in a 95% vaxxed society a majority of cases will be vaccinated etc., but we aren’t at that level of vaccination yet either, so 95% also isn’t a real number for any age cohort.
95% of those age 70+ have been vaccinated since April


edit: Those are first dose numbers, but second dose numbers are >90% for some groups for some time and the same reasoning applies at 90% too.

ShadowHawk fucked around with this message at 05:19 on Jul 21, 2021

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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Pistol_Pete posted:

Yeah, I've never rated those models: crunching dozens and dozens of variables together and extrapolating outwards results in such a hugely wide range of possible outcomes that I fail to see what use the models are. If you're a leader needing to make decisions and you ask your scientists for a ballpark figure about where they think we'll be in two months time on current trends, being told: "Well, the model predicts somewhere between practically no infections and millions and millions of infections" is of pretty limited use. If you go past the headline results and dig into the small print, it's page upon page of caveats about how they can't really quantify half the variables, so they're either giving them enormous ranges, or just making a best guess.

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1418938128786595840
https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1418940186151440384

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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I'm still struggling with the idea of counties that, after all that's happened, still have a vaccination rate of less than 20%.

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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wilderthanmild posted:

I've seen a lot of people implying the change is actually that vaccinated people get infected just as often, but are asymptomatic, which seems to be a mistake, unless they are referring to something that is in neither the CDC leaked slide deck nor the recently published report from the outbreak in MA.
They are likely responding to this bit of misinformation from a New York Times headline that made its way around:
https://twitter.com/MarcGoldwein/status/1421098255144869890

The underlying article has correct information but the headline is very clearly poorly worded at best (and still hasn't been corrected).

Subtitle, not headline posted:

Infections in vaccinated Americans are rare, compared with those in unvaccinated people, the document said. But when they occur, vaccinated people may spread the virus just as easily.

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1421537754522001416

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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Crankit posted:

The local blood donation people don't test blood for covid and say there is no evidence for covid being transmitted by blood, is that real?
They screen via donors rather than after donation. What the "no evidence" probably means here is that they haven't caught any tainted blood via the test that the pre-donation screening wouldn't have also caught.

This isn't just for covid - they try to screen out all manner of cold/flu-like symptoms in the same way. That's why you can only donate when you're feeling well and healthy, and if you get sick in the next few days they give you a number to call to report that your blood is bad.

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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brugroffil posted:

Lots of people have little trust of the US healthcare system and things that are advertised for "free."
Grocery stores and pharmacies, right now, advertise "free*" flu shots that actually cost fifty dollars when you finish getting them if you don't have your insurance info

I can absolutely understand someone assuming the covid vax is the same nonsense

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

CERTIFIED PRE OWNED TESLA OWNER
It's important to note that this is a situation where the landlord is a live-in landlord, ie renting a room in someone else's home.

There's a reason most tenant laws exclude that situation from various forms of protection. "Seeking female roommate" ads, for instance, might be illegal if gender discrimination rules weren't exempted from this case.

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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https://twitter.com/KiaSpeaks/status/1422535010406604805

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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Zzulu posted:

The guy took the vaccine why are you all getting heated
Seriously, we should expect there to be a good number of "I got it but didn't really want to" folks. That means incentives are working.

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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https://twitter.com/PoorlyAgedStuff/status/1425207830722879488

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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fishing with the fam posted:

Which is why I won't put anything in my body that hasn't existed at least 80 years.
I have some bad news for you about sex

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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QuarkJets posted:

There is literally nothing that you or I can do or say to make the plague spreaders stop plague spreading
Do you have a theory as to why the US is currently averaging half a million new vaccinations per day?

All of those people could have gone months ago. Something changed their mind.

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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Snowglobe of Doom posted:

Someone could poll them and get some actual answers, rather than having us throwing out wild unsubstantiated guesses. I don't see any value in posting "a theory" since it'd just be people shouting their pre-conceived notions about the vaxx hesitant
Fortunately Five Thirty Eight has been doing exactly this analysis

There are still good chunks of "wait and see" and "only if required" people in the vaccine-hesitant column, though their numbers are declining steadily as the US keeps on vaccinating ~500k people a day.

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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Mass Wisteria posted:

Hi COVID thread, I just have to vent about this somewhere. So I work in a healthcare facility and recently the higher ups sent an organization wide email about "respecting our co-workers" and I thought, oh they're probably going to address the death spiral of stress a lot of a caregivers are under and how we can be more understanding.

No. No of course not. What is actually disrespectful to your co-workers is talking about or even mentioning getting vaccinated against COVID-19. You see, all of these anti-vax people are feeling SO bummed right now, even mentioning the COVID-19 vaccine within hearing distance of them is a personal attack. So we must be respectful. By not even talking about the vaccine. In the worst surge of COVID-19 patients we have ever had. While working in loving healthcare. We have a mandatory flu shot every year that is required for continued employment.

I'm just so done, I don't even work in clinical care and I am embarrassed to work here.
Please remember that discussing workplace safety considerations with your coworkers is a federally protected right. Any attempts to even imply you may face retaliation for expressing safety concerns are 100% a violation and merit an NLRB complaint.

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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Is this a confession that he's actually wearing a mask?

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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wilderthanmild posted:

But unfortunately Hospitalizations per 100k doesn't follow the same trend



Now I don't know if this is the result of how the data is reported(county of residence vs county of hospitalizations), hospitals maxing out on capacity, or if there really is no reduction in hospitalizations associated with vaccination rate in this case. It's too bad Florida doesn't report deaths by county anymore, since that would probably be less prone to aberrations as long as they reported by county of residence. Maybe I'll try this with another state that does report deaths by county.
The old are both much more likely to be hospitalized and much more likely to be vaccinated. Your analysis is probably confounded by the Florida counties that skew heavily older; they have high vax rates, but their unvaxed get much sicker than average (since they're older than average)

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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Jeza posted:

I mean, I agree fully, but it's a comedically specious argument. You could literally sub in mandatory schooling for 'women having the right to vote' lmfao
A much stronger argument is that there are plenty of examples of schoolchildren temporarily missing surprisingly large amounts of school (eg hurricanes, cancer) and the consequences are very clearly less bad than risking death or disability.

More analysis on this.

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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liz posted:

https://twitter.com/nbcnewsgraphics/status/1430194833465954312?s=21

Shocking. I don’t get why people continue to have giant rear end weddings, festivals, etc during what is clearly one of the worst points in the pandemic. Common sense just isn’t a thing anymore I guess.

Why is this graph showing California declining? That contradicts NY Times, which has 14-day cases at +19%

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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Nessus posted:

It's showing proportional rates of increase. So if California's case growth is down to 19% in the last two weeks, vs whatever it was last month, etc.
Ahh ok didn't read closely enough, this is a second derivative. So only two states actually seem to be "flattening" in their growth right now (although they haven't yet peaked). It is true that California's case curve looks flat at the moment, though that may change as schools are just now opening here.

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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Woodsy Owl posted:

So what does the future hold now? I'm seriously asking. Are we (non-shitheads) going to be masking forever? Is the body count going to stay this high every year forever? Is herd immunity even possible if 100% of the population gets vaccinated but it doesn't provide sterilizing immunity?
Like a forest fire, eventually the virus will burn through most of the "fuel". Even in a place like India where spread was almost completely uncontrolled the waves died out. Most of the population there is no longer naiive to the virus, meaning subsequent waves will be more mitigated due to at least partial immunity.


As much as they've decreased from their peak, vaccinations are still making significant progress. The US is currently giving 5 times as many vaccine doses every day as newly recorded infections, which gives some hope even in a "everyone gets it eventually" scenario

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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Stickman posted:

What's your over-under on the asymptote this time.
Best guess is the polling around reasons for not being vaccinated, which suggests something like only 11%-12% of adults are true holdouts in the US. The rest are some version of "wait and see" and "only if required".

Vaccines are going to increasingly be "required"

I would also guess that children will have a lower holdout rate than adults, as they can get a vaccine if any one of their parents (or self, in some cases) desires it.

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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ikanreed posted:

Honestly, while I blame the chuds first and foremost, the biggest blame is letting the cancer of alt med fester for 50 years now.
Right now, today, most major American drug stores sell fake cold medicine on the same shelf as the real stuff. These products (usually homeopathic) are purposefully designed to look as close to the real thing as possible, complete with "active ingredients" and "Regulated by the FDA" printed on the label.

The cancer runs deep indeed.

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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rt4 posted:

Why are they rolling this contagious guy out without a mask on? Did they get into the ambulance with him like that? :psyduck:
The linked article is from January, so this is probably a different time where he went to the ER than his current covid case.

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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naem posted:

the fact that delta is ramping up as bad or worse than original recipe covid did, due to so many unvaccinated people taking zero steps for safety, says to me that boosters will eventually be given a full green light as things get bad this winter

I strongly suspect there are some ulterior motives in not saying yes to boosters immediately, similar to the attempt to stop a run on masks to let healthcare get some first by telling the public they don’t need them
On that note, cases have been declining for about 2 weeks in the US. But if you zoom into various states, it turns out that cases are still growing in about half of them.

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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Today I learned that somewhere between 5 and 15% of people have a fear of needles. That's a shockingly high number. I suspect this has a lot to do with vaccine hesitancy; people often channel specific phobias into "reasoned" arguments that just so happen to support their fears.

ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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a hot gujju bhabhi posted:

We over-relied on an Australian manufactured vaccine which was actually a fantastic idea, but we should have had a back up. No one could have predicted the blood clot issues but 1) they certainly could have predicted that there MIGHT be some sort of issues and a plan B was important and also 2) even the federal government and media handling of the blood clot issue itself was a clusterfuck.

Trust our federal government to take an ostensibly good idea and still completely gently caress up the entire thing.
It is pretty clear that the sensible plan was always "buy as many of as many different vaccines as you can, and when you inevitably end up with extras donate them to the poorer parts of the world"

Only a few countries seem to have actually gone ahead and done that though

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ShadowHawk
Jun 25, 2000

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Ccs posted:

Quebec is 90% eligible single dose, 85% fully vaxxed, I’m double vaxxed, and yet I caught a breakthrough covid infection. gently caress.

First day was sneezing and sore throat, day 2 was less sore throat, more congestion, day 3 has been no sore throat, very little congestion, but coughing and tired.

Neither vaccine dose did much but make me a bit tired so I guess I didn’t have a strong enough immune response.
Some symptoms abating by day 3 sounds like a pretty good response to me

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