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greazeball posted:I feel like someone upthread: when the numbers of new cases per day is finally at something lower than loving crazy number like it is now, then I'll start thinking about doing some indoor or crowded stuff. In about 6 weeks, after my second dose settles in, I'll feel a lot better about going shopping, taking the train and stuff like that. The guilty pleasure I don't know when we'll be able to do again is going to the sauna/baths. I love a day relaxing in saunas and whirlpools and chilling in the sun or shade. It'll be a while before I look at a steam bath with anything but horror. Of course, maybe they'll decline faster (more people will be vaccinated, warmer weather). Or slower (fewer precautions). Either way the world will be very different in six weeks, and it will definitely vary a lot region to region.
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# ¿ May 6, 2021 01:22 |
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# ¿ May 17, 2024 14:13 |
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QuarkJets posted:You're talking about likelihood of getting infected at all, but that's basically impossible to predict because it's largely behavior based. I think the odds being discussed were "odds of dying of covid-19 after catching it while vaccinated", which is nowhere near one in ten million or whatever Saros posted:Of the 40,000 healthcare workers in the study there were of course breakthrough infections but importantly there were zero deaths and only a small handful of serious cases two weeks after first vaccine dose.
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# ¿ May 10, 2021 07:31 |
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Pennywise the Frown posted:You can't read. Or don't understand context. Or at least you don't know what immunity means. The rest of the English-speaking world, meanwhile, is happy to use phrases like: - All COVID-19 vaccines work with the body’s natural defenses to safely develop immunity to disease. - It typically takes two weeks after vaccination for the body to build protection (immunity) against the virus that causes COVID-19. (those two quotes are from the CDC's website, the first thing that comes up if you Google "vaccine immunity")
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# ¿ May 16, 2021 18:36 |
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Pennywise the Frown posted:You know drat well that when the word immunity is used in normal circumstances it means 100% immunity. No one says immune and means, eh, kind of resistant. I'm all in favor of putting aside semantics arguments to argue actual points, but it's not helpful when you going to push an unusual definition and then get furiously angry at everyone else in the thread, the CDC, and related experts when they use standard language.
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# ¿ May 16, 2021 18:46 |
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A Fancy Hat posted:I hate to say it but I've pretty much accepted that some portion of my wife's family will die of covid in the next year because they refuse to get vaccinated or take even the most basic precautions when not forced to. So even when a couple dozen people are being total idiots throwing a literal covid party, and they all get it - it's still a coinflip whether anyone actually dies. This helps explain a lot of the idiocy out there. There are tons of stories of people doing everything wrong, being in a vulnerable group, getting it, and ultimately recovering. It's a bit like that dumbass you probably know who drove drunk "successfully" a dozen times and thinks it's totally safe - a 2% risk of crashing is really high (several times a year), but 98% of the time things work out ok. People "learn" from that and get really wrong ideas.
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# ¿ May 18, 2021 07:52 |
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CaptainSarcastic posted:An excessive focus on death rates has been part of the problem in getting the virus under control. For a lot of people the odds of dying might be low, but the odds of permanent heart or lung damage, or psychosis, or taste/smell perversion are not well-quantified. To put it in another perspective, the survivablility rate for the elderly is still about 80-90%. That's also about the survivability rate for getting stabbed in the chest, but for some reason we don't have idiots going around saying stabbing old people is no big deal.
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# ¿ May 18, 2021 08:38 |
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Platystemon posted:It’s crazy that the same CDC that’s like “Watch out! There’s polio in Malaysia!” is like “Go on down to Denny’s to gently caress and suck in a pandemic. You deserve it.”
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# ¿ May 18, 2021 15:13 |
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Purgatory Glory posted:Telling people they were entered into a draw to win a million dollars saw upticks. That pushes the population that stats don't register with. Too dumb to know that covid risk vs any fake vaccine risk cooked up, also too dumb to know they won't win the million bucks. I know of people that will get it once it is clear that travel is restricted if they don't. It's ridiculous, if I genuinely though the vaccine was gonna hurt me I wouldn't bend on it.what kind of character does someone have who puts themselves at a perceived risk because they want to travel?
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# ¿ May 28, 2021 01:57 |
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Platystemon posted:This would be a good idea, but their database is probably incomplete and the person who was wrongly disqualified would sue, and then the person who won on the redraw would sue, and it would all be a big mess.
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# ¿ May 28, 2021 02:39 |
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Mush Mushi posted:68% of the population double jabbed, 60% of hospitalizations double jabbed? I’m fully onboard with the vaccines but can’t we just admit that this is bad news no matter how you wrangle the data? "68% of the population double-jabbed" is the wrong metric, since the vast majority of hospitalizations are among the elderly who have a much higher rate of vaccination. https://twitter.com/kennyshirley/status/1417177778013843456 Which is all to say "xx% of hospitalizations double jabbed" isn't necessarily concerning even if it's actually 60 instead of 40.
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# ¿ Jul 20, 2021 23:49 |
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https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1417301374245687296
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# ¿ Jul 20, 2021 23:49 |
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Mush Mushi posted:Call me crazy but I actually I think that a 68:60 ratio would be quite concerning if that were reality. If the vaccine were working as advertised I’d expect it to be under 20% rather than 60%. But this is all based on bad numbers from the UK science man having an accident so it’s moot now. That's just a version of simpson's paradox: every single subgroup might have 90% reduction in hospitalization when vaccinated, but the overall sample is heavily biased towards unvaccinated children and vaccinated elderly.
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# ¿ Jul 21, 2021 01:39 |
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Mush Mushi posted:At the time that the 60% figure came out I was observing that based on the current vaccination rates by age group and published efficacy rates I did not expect to hear that 60% of hospitalizations were fully vaccinated. We now know that that factoid was incorrect. I understand that in a 95% vaxxed society a majority of cases will be vaccinated etc., but we aren’t at that level of vaccination yet either, so 95% also isn’t a real number for any age cohort. edit: Those are first dose numbers, but second dose numbers are >90% for some groups for some time and the same reasoning applies at 90% too. ShadowHawk fucked around with this message at 05:19 on Jul 21, 2021 |
# ¿ Jul 21, 2021 05:10 |
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Pistol_Pete posted:Yeah, I've never rated those models: crunching dozens and dozens of variables together and extrapolating outwards results in such a hugely wide range of possible outcomes that I fail to see what use the models are. If you're a leader needing to make decisions and you ask your scientists for a ballpark figure about where they think we'll be in two months time on current trends, being told: "Well, the model predicts somewhere between practically no infections and millions and millions of infections" is of pretty limited use. If you go past the headline results and dig into the small print, it's page upon page of caveats about how they can't really quantify half the variables, so they're either giving them enormous ranges, or just making a best guess. https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1418938128786595840 https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1418940186151440384
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# ¿ Jul 26, 2021 11:00 |
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I'm still struggling with the idea of counties that, after all that's happened, still have a vaccination rate of less than 20%.
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# ¿ Aug 1, 2021 22:03 |
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wilderthanmild posted:I've seen a lot of people implying the change is actually that vaccinated people get infected just as often, but are asymptomatic, which seems to be a mistake, unless they are referring to something that is in neither the CDC leaked slide deck nor the recently published report from the outbreak in MA. https://twitter.com/MarcGoldwein/status/1421098255144869890 The underlying article has correct information but the headline is very clearly poorly worded at best (and still hasn't been corrected). Subtitle, not headline posted:Infections in vaccinated Americans are rare, compared with those in unvaccinated people, the document said. But when they occur, vaccinated people may spread the virus just as easily.
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# ¿ Aug 1, 2021 23:00 |
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https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1421537754522001416
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# ¿ Aug 1, 2021 23:03 |
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Crankit posted:The local blood donation people don't test blood for covid and say there is no evidence for covid being transmitted by blood, is that real? This isn't just for covid - they try to screen out all manner of cold/flu-like symptoms in the same way. That's why you can only donate when you're feeling well and healthy, and if you get sick in the next few days they give you a number to call to report that your blood is bad.
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# ¿ Aug 2, 2021 04:51 |
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brugroffil posted:Lots of people have little trust of the US healthcare system and things that are advertised for "free." I can absolutely understand someone assuming the covid vax is the same nonsense
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# ¿ Aug 3, 2021 04:33 |
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Plant MONSTER. posted:Hmm. There's a reason most tenant laws exclude that situation from various forms of protection. "Seeking female roommate" ads, for instance, might be illegal if gender discrimination rules weren't exempted from this case.
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# ¿ Aug 3, 2021 13:55 |
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https://twitter.com/KiaSpeaks/status/1422535010406604805
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# ¿ Aug 9, 2021 23:29 |
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Zzulu posted:The guy took the vaccine why are you all getting heated
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# ¿ Aug 11, 2021 13:00 |
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https://twitter.com/PoorlyAgedStuff/status/1425207830722879488
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# ¿ Aug 11, 2021 14:48 |
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fishing with the fam posted:Which is why I won't put anything in my body that hasn't existed at least 80 years.
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# ¿ Aug 11, 2021 15:43 |
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QuarkJets posted:There is literally nothing that you or I can do or say to make the plague spreaders stop plague spreading All of those people could have gone months ago. Something changed their mind.
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# ¿ Aug 13, 2021 03:12 |
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Snowglobe of Doom posted:Someone could poll them and get some actual answers, rather than having us throwing out wild unsubstantiated guesses. I don't see any value in posting "a theory" since it'd just be people shouting their pre-conceived notions about the vaxx hesitant There are still good chunks of "wait and see" and "only if required" people in the vaccine-hesitant column, though their numbers are declining steadily as the US keeps on vaccinating ~500k people a day.
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# ¿ Aug 17, 2021 04:19 |
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Mass Wisteria posted:Hi COVID thread, I just have to vent about this somewhere. So I work in a healthcare facility and recently the higher ups sent an organization wide email about "respecting our co-workers" and I thought, oh they're probably going to address the death spiral of stress a lot of a caregivers are under and how we can be more understanding.
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# ¿ Aug 17, 2021 04:52 |
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Snowglobe of Doom posted:Important covid news:
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# ¿ Aug 20, 2021 11:37 |
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wilderthanmild posted:But unfortunately Hospitalizations per 100k doesn't follow the same trend
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# ¿ Aug 23, 2021 14:37 |
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Jeza posted:I mean, I agree fully, but it's a comedically specious argument. You could literally sub in mandatory schooling for 'women having the right to vote' lmfao More analysis on this.
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# ¿ Aug 24, 2021 13:39 |
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liz posted:https://twitter.com/nbcnewsgraphics/status/1430194833465954312?s=21 Why is this graph showing California declining? That contradicts NY Times, which has 14-day cases at +19%
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# ¿ Aug 25, 2021 02:09 |
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Nessus posted:It's showing proportional rates of increase. So if California's case growth is down to 19% in the last two weeks, vs whatever it was last month, etc.
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# ¿ Aug 25, 2021 02:15 |
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Woodsy Owl posted:So what does the future hold now? I'm seriously asking. Are we (non-shitheads) going to be masking forever? Is the body count going to stay this high every year forever? Is herd immunity even possible if 100% of the population gets vaccinated but it doesn't provide sterilizing immunity? As much as they've decreased from their peak, vaccinations are still making significant progress. The US is currently giving 5 times as many vaccine doses every day as newly recorded infections, which gives some hope even in a "everyone gets it eventually" scenario
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# ¿ Aug 25, 2021 06:27 |
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Stickman posted:What's your over-under on the asymptote this time. Vaccines are going to increasingly be "required" I would also guess that children will have a lower holdout rate than adults, as they can get a vaccine if any one of their parents (or self, in some cases) desires it.
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# ¿ Aug 25, 2021 11:41 |
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ikanreed posted:Honestly, while I blame the chuds first and foremost, the biggest blame is letting the cancer of alt med fester for 50 years now. The cancer runs deep indeed.
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# ¿ Aug 29, 2021 17:32 |
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rt4 posted:Why are they rolling this contagious guy out without a mask on? Did they get into the ambulance with him like that?
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# ¿ Sep 18, 2021 02:28 |
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naem posted:the fact that delta is ramping up as bad or worse than original recipe covid did, due to so many unvaccinated people taking zero steps for safety, says to me that boosters will eventually be given a full green light as things get bad this winter
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# ¿ Sep 25, 2021 16:13 |
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Today I learned that somewhere between 5 and 15% of people have a fear of needles. That's a shockingly high number. I suspect this has a lot to do with vaccine hesitancy; people often channel specific phobias into "reasoned" arguments that just so happen to support their fears.
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# ¿ Sep 27, 2021 00:09 |
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a hot gujju bhabhi posted:We over-relied on an Australian manufactured vaccine which was actually a fantastic idea, but we should have had a back up. No one could have predicted the blood clot issues but 1) they certainly could have predicted that there MIGHT be some sort of issues and a plan B was important and also 2) even the federal government and media handling of the blood clot issue itself was a clusterfuck. Only a few countries seem to have actually gone ahead and done that though
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# ¿ Sep 27, 2021 11:40 |
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# ¿ May 17, 2024 14:13 |
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Ccs posted:Quebec is 90% eligible single dose, 85% fully vaxxed, I’m double vaxxed, and yet I caught a breakthrough covid infection. gently caress.
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# ¿ Oct 15, 2021 05:03 |