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Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

i already regret bookmarking this thread

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Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Mayor Dave posted:

lmao which one of you bought this banner ad:



leading to

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hNjWOCdony4

proclick so far

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Spime Wrangler posted:

proclick so far

still a proclick at 38m in

but whoever uploaded it please fix "clientologists" in the overlay text, thanks

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Evil_Greven posted:

i need to effort post some stuff from archive things i guess but until then here's some past fun
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cu3WoacqZiQ

love that pbs felt the need to track down a born-again heresiarch before they could almost take reality seriously

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Tim Pawlenty posted:

just read the ministry for the future had a real lol at how optimistic it all is even with the starting point being 'maybe once we have a few multimillion bodycount mass death events there will be enough activist pressure and terrorism to make actual change happen'

it was a pretty jarring transition at the point when KSR decided he needed to stop writing about ecoterrorism and start arcing the plot towards "institutions could actually do something"

i definitely want to do some airship tourism now, though

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Cold on a Cob posted:

gonna re-recommend oryx and crake if you want to read a feelgood story where someone actually does something to stop humanity from doing even more damage to the environment :unsmith:

although the book's a bit outdated, the neat thing about it is the solutions presented in it are totally viable with available technology, unlike silly sci fi poo poo like ccs on a mass scale

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Car Hater posted:

I love when we conjecture about adding fillers to roads. The idea of tires rubbing up on ground up plastic binding in cement fills me with a burbly feeling and makes the inside of my head smell like that new-car scented air freshener

when asking yourself "is this a good idea" remember that usually the alternative is not "do a good thing" but instead "oh no. oh gently caress no"



https://archive.epa.gov/epawaste/conserve/materials/tires/web/html/tdf.html it appears this page was taken down shortly after the start of the trump administration

so, given the existence and continued production of millions and millions of used tires, is it better to use them as unburnt filler in asphalt roads or is it better to burn them in a kiln, and probably one with dodgy or nonexistent emission control equipment?

honestly the technical answer is nobody knows, but you can probably guess. we do know (as well as we can figure with available data) that adding tires to asphalt roads is worse from a CO2 perspective than not using tires, due to the additional processing steps and chemical additives involved. probably still a lot better than chucking them in a fire, though.

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Trabisnikof posted:

in Canada there’s an old abandoned mine site that we have to keep frozen forever or else it kills everything down stream of it lol

“permanently freeze” meaning we will have to maintain and operate chilling equipment to freeze arsenic dust forever. And as soon as we stop rip downstream

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E4nZDSLdIiM

ah yes, the deadly Giant Mine, nestled on the shores the Great Slave Lake

nothing to see here, folks!

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Sadistic Hamster posted:

What qualifies as downstream from Giant Mine? Is it everything... it's everything isn't it.

the mine is in yellowknife

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Tabletops posted:

do you have a cabin somewhere or are you just gonna roll in the poo poo

there is no cabin "somewhere" enough. we will all bear witness and roll in the poo poo

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

splifyphus posted:

it's worth noting here that keen is a neo-keynesian, not any kind of materialist. and here he is pumping eco-stalin to a room full of libs.

if you stick an earnest lib climate scientist or sustainability engineer in a room with real decision makers they radicalize surprisingly quickly

it's actually awesome - you can tell who's a beady eyed industry shill really quickly because they've been in the field for years yet don't give off an aura of existential despair and a confusion as to why they even still try

mad props to the folks who stay the course, though

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Rime posted:

The workforce necessary to build the "Green Energy Revolution" :airquote: on a sane timeframe is calling it done with. There's no value in it. They're walking away.

Whether or not that perspective is true, that is the belief in the field, and beliefs on this scale generate their own outcomes.

is this a coordinated walkout or is it just the end of the season and folks aren't coming back next go-around or what? how much of the workforce do yall represent?

i mean at the end of the day sustainability work has always been just like game development or working for spacex or working in a mountain town: half the pay is the opportunity to live the dream and employers know that and exploit it heavily. i do independent white collar sustainability consulting and it's been more than half my pay for years. if you're all walking away because you don't believe in the work then regardless of how "good" the pay is, you've been at least partially getting paid in "being part of something" too.

when the shine wears off the market forces will do their thing. a new workforce will be trained and paid enough to maintain productivity and profit despite their lack of ideological commitment to the work. wind is too profitable to die just because some folks don't believe it'll save us. i mean there's a shitload of rig pigs still working drills because all they love is money and trucks - no need for windmills to be any different. stack those old blades like cordwood, gently caress it.

all that said, the cognitive dissonance required to stick with the project in the face of ~all this~ is huge, and for all the good it does you might as well grab quality of life where you can and try to stay out of the way of what's coming.

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

goochtit posted:

:hellyeah: the age of sail is back baby, let's do zeppelins next

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.



no idea if these numbers are right or where they came from, but they sound true

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Rectal Death Adept posted:

Usually with EVs the math is either ignoring the emissions in the supply chain used to create them, the emissions created by the energy that powers them or both.

So if you ignore the mining of the minerals, the fabrication of parts, the fossil fuel power plants, and the rubber tires and then do a straight mileage comparison between gas and electric engine emissions only when they drive then they have a huge impact on paper if you ignore that passenger car emissions are meaningless at this point.

if the numbers come from anything like a reputable source this is false and has been for decades

if you want to cast doubt on real studies there's all kinds of skeletons in the closet of the life cycle data industry but none that are gross negligence like you're describing. usually it's something like "we only have swedish data for this process" or "they burn a different type of coal in less efficient plants in that part of the world" or "we made a different assumption about this life cycle phase than the other guys for this reason."

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Rectal Death Adept posted:

defending every electric vehicle vs internal combustion engine comparison as completely accounting for all systematic inputs for the past 20 years is a pretty bold stance

of course not every comparison accounts for all inputs but that's not the point. the point is any comparative assessment on a vehicle-to-vehicle cradle-to-grave basis performed by someone who has any background in the field has accounted for extraction, manufacturing, and use-phase energy origins. it's not hard to find these analyses. if a study doesn't account for those things it's because that's not the point of the study.


now would a CEO have their marketing folks cherry pick numbers and hide the fine print to make EVs look better? of course.

would the World Resources Institute hire a bunch of ex-World Bank execs and take a ton of corporate cash to create a GHG reporting standard and develop an intentionally hamstrung framework that makes it easy to ignore established methodologies? absolutely

would they lobby to use that framework as the basis for regulations so as to avoid analyzing upstream impacts and end-of-life "because we just don't have the tools to evaluate that yet"? yep



quote:

https://www.epa.gov/climateleadership/scope-1-and-scope-2-inventory-guidance

According to the GHG Corporate Protocol, all organizations should quantify scope 1 and 2 emissions when reporting and disclosing GHG emissions, while scope 3 emissions quantification is not required.

as has been said, the problem is not EVs in particular being better or worse than ICE-Vs, it's the system that EVs are used to perpetuate.

honestly I don't have a dog in this fight, all cars are bad, but there's much worse climate reporting behavior going on than bad EV analyses which can be easily rebutted.

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

i love the mental image of "running every car ever made backwards for its entire lifespan and pumping the result into the ground." It's an impossibly large feat and the energy gradient is awful.

even then it doesn't even account for coal and other stationary sources, but we don't have nearly as good an intuitive sense of scale with those.


btw here's a good simple example of reporting EV emissions scenarios with explicit manufacturing phase impacts:



it's easy to see how on a mixed grid (2014 EU average, 25% coal, 27% nuclear, 15% gas, 27% renewable) EVs dominate ICE despite higher manufacturing impacts, and it's also easy to see how that doesn't matter at all if you're making more cars at a record rate and driving more miles per car.

Note that for the US, in Seattle an EV will be much closer to the renewable number (93% hydro power), and in the Midwest (MISO region) it'll be closer to 100% coal (38% coal, 26% gas, 14% nuclear, 9% renewable...), maybe worse than ICE.

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Rime posted:

Enjoying Kazakhstan proving my thesis from like two weeks ago.

Also Kazakhstan supplies 50% of the worlds Uranium and a shitload of reactors are up for refueling this year. If the country collapses, that'll be fun.

surely any uranium going into a reactor this year has already been processed

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Spend 12 hours breathing through meltblown plastic, the only technology able to prevent infection from the deadly pandemic.

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

for real though I love my plastic clothes, they are my best clothes and have magical properties our descendants will covet

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

texas is a deeply cursed land, above as it is below

https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/west-texas-geyser-oil-well-chevron/

quote:

It is fortunate the well turned out to be an old oil well and not an abandoned water well. The Railroad Commission says it has no jurisdiction over water wells. Indeed, this new geyser is located only twelve miles northeast of Lake Boehmer, sixty acres of noxious water flowing from what began as an oil well but was converted decades ago to a water well. Nobody claims jurisdiction over that problem, which first appeared about twenty years ago and keeps growing.

Stopping the flow of water from the Chevron well could be complex and expensive, and may take weeks. Capping it above ground could cause an underground blowout, in which the stream of salt water carves a new path into a freshwater aquifer or other rock stratum. Figuring out what caused the well to blow out in the first place may prove to be even more involved. It could be a result of saltwater disposal that’s part of normal oil well activity. Highly saline water comes out of active wells alongside oil and gas and is injected back deep underground under high pressure. The amount of water injected in the Permian Basin is extraordinarily large and has caused a series of earthquakes around Midland. Potentially, some of this salt water migrated upward and created a pressurized pocket that eroded away cement plugs in the well and escaped to the surface. (If that’s the case, it may be shortsighted that the state has brought in vacuum trucks to hoover up the water from the blown-out well and is reinjecting it into a saltwater disposal well a few miles away.)

Spime Wrangler has issued a correction as of 04:25 on Jan 19, 2022

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.


this headline and the article are both kind of a mischaracterization of the situation: it's not that the CCS process itself is emitting more than it's capturing (guarantee you it's not), it's that its only capturing 48% of the emissions it's supposed to be capturing (those generated by the hydrogen plant), and 39% of the overall process emissions (including emissions it's not designed to capture, including those associated with generating electricity to power the CCS process)

it's a bit of a distinction without a difference but i want the thread to be able to lol at it with more sophistication than vice can bring to the table

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

pygmy tyrant posted:

what? it sounds like you’re saying that if you only consider emissions generated physically within the reformer, they’re capturing 48%, in which case they are literally emitting more than they capture by 4% of their process throughput.

Whether the whole process is dumb or not doesn’t hinge on that fact though

i'm splitting hairs by taking issue with vice calling it a "ccs plant" when it's a hydrogen plant with a ccs system.

the article wasn't clear on which parts of the process were emitting what, and without a careful reading made it sound like the ccs process itself was emitting more than it captured. which would be funny, but wrong, and wouldn't give folks in this thread as strong an argument against CCS as the truth: that it's narrowly effective but broadly counterproductive technology used as greenwashing to support continued fossil fuel use.

the net sequestration, all-in, appears to be 39% for the hydrodgen-ccs combined process (cradle-to-gate). which should mean that the hydrogen they produce has a 39% lower CO2-derived GWP per btu than it would have without ccs.

I wanted to corroborate that estimate so here's a recent study showing just how bad it really is. the CO2 reduction numbers hold up but holy gently caress the overall GWP is not looking good.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ese3.956



hydrogen is loving garbage

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

That 39% value comes from page 5 of "Hydrogen's Hidden Emissions," the report referenced in the article, and explicitly includes "Carbon emissions from the energy used to power the CCS system."

I did make a mistake though because it also includes methane emissions. So the HHE report actually reflects better on the technology than the Howarth and Jacobsen article I linked, which shows only a 9% overall reduction in emissions per unit hydrogen produced.

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Hubbert posted:

how dare you bring lifecycle assessment analysis into this thread!!!!

its like accounting but the rules are made up and the results don't matter!

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

if we feed everybody a vegetarian diet until rendering age and use fuel from their rendered flesh to render yet more flesh, we may be able to create a fully functional net-negative atmospheric capture carbon sequestration scheme, as long as the excess rendered flesh gets stored in the national human fuel strategic reserve and not immediately burned to help liquify tar sands

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Loddfafnir posted:

This is great, thanks!
Do you have other similar resources?

This is basically a stripped-down, purpose-built version of the engineering exercise called Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA). Read up on FMEA and you'll get additional tools to apply.

Be warned FMEA is a very highly developed, extremely tedious process that everyone hates, but done right it helps you do things like build space shuttles that only blow up sometimes. If you only take away some high level concepts like Risk = Likelihood * Severity and apply them systematically to a situation then you're doing just fine.

That document does a good job of translating the concepts likelihood and severity into relevant metrics (how soon will it occur, how long will the crisis last). Understanding FMEA will give you additional tools for contextualizing the info from that document, like recognizing that how soon is just one component of likelihood and how long is only one component of severity.

From there you can think about particular ways in which things might go sideways and identify mitigation steps. Look for ways of reducing the likelihood of a crisis situation, or reducing the severity of its outcomes. Another category that isn't discussed here is detection, and some mitigation steps involve identifying how easy it is to tell if a crisis/failure is coming, how far in advance that information is available and what actions are possible in the time before it arrives. You can then design mitigation strategies that involve monitoring specific warning signs and executing preexisting plans when your criteria are met.

RIme's document is an excellent first step. Go through that process in full before worrying too much about adding detail.

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Karach posted:

This is happening in Canada right now. We have five million tonnes of unsecured nuclear waste, and more to come, and the nuclear industry is trying to find a nice little town in the Canadian Shield where they can dig a hole and bury it. And we need to figure out how to keep thousands of years of future generations from messing with it.

Not surprisingly, the towns aren't super keen on this.

I hear Yellowknife has plenty of space next to the arsenic pits, which will kill any Wasteland raiders before they figure out how to breach the casks

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Trabisnikof posted:

https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1486860015067566083?s=20&t=q8KGU-MEYJ7KIOOHmuSVdQ

And yet to me, it seems easily possible to imagine a future where we don’t just muddle along with business-as-usual, but in which we do address the threat of climate change with only mild disruptions of our current way of life. The biggest reason is the advance of technology. Renewable energy, energy storage, electric vehicles, and other green technologies have gotten so good, and so cheap, so quickly, that the economic incentives now favor decarbonization.

And this is not just theory. Recent data revisions from the Global Carbon Project show that total annual global carbon emissions — including from both fossil fuel use and land use changes — were approximately flat between 2011 and 2021:



Global annual emissions from electric power alone, meanwhile, peaked in 2018.

Now, annual emissions represent the total amount of carbon we add to the atmosphere each year, so the carbon in the air is still going up (and there’s also methane to think about). But the fact that a decade of rapid global economic growth wasn’t accompanied by any increase in global carbon emissions is a very good sign; as technology continues to improve, we should start to see big drops in annual emissions.

Now, technological improvement by itself is probably not enough to avert extreme outcomes from warming. But concerted government policy — by democratically elected governments in capitalist countries — can make a really big difference. The UK passed a climate change bill in 2008 that created a legally binding emissions target. As a result, the country began a rapid and sustained switch from fossil fuels to renewable power:
...
Now, that doesn’t mean everything’s fine and we can go back to sleep and muddle through with business as usual. These small-looking numbers conceal big differences — the effects of just 2ºC of warming are pretty dramatic, and 2.5ºC probably falls within the range of what we could reasonably label “global catastrophe”. So no matter what, Earth is in for a bumpy ride this century, and if we drop the ball on policy, some of the very dramatic scenarios could still manifest, technological progress or no.

But this doesn’t mean that climate change will force us to reorganize either society or our economy in radical or unprecedented ways. The UK’s experience shows that we can keep our social-democratic capitalist mixed economies and our modern democratic governments (or in China’s case, its modern autocratic government) and still do what’s necessary to avoid catastrophe by 2070 or so.
...
And by the same token, it would be premature for us to abandon the impulse toward positive social transformation. The Climate Left may have no chance of ending capitalism, but they’ve inspired lots of center-left businesspeople, scientists, and policymakers to take climate change more seriously — which, ultimately, is what will contain climate change’s effects. And there are plenty of other problems in our society that will need big pushes in order to fix — our broken health care system, our ruinously high construction costs, and so on.

So while I want to reassure you, I only want to reassure you a little bit. America’s great strength is that we freak out about everything, thus bestirring ourselves to early action when other countries might have let problems fester too long. If all goes well, 20 years from now we’ll look back on the 2020s as when society started to become sane again and we started to rebuild after a decade of chaos and rage. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

we're off the peak of US production, but it got all hosed up in 2020 when storage maxed out, prices went negative, and wells had to be shut down. conventional production peaked decades ago, right on time, and we're in the amphetamines phase now with fracking.



the current story is that oil companies are running relatively low on reserves (on a decade+ timeframe) and are underinvesting in exploration and development at the behest of investors, who want to maximize their immediate profits by keeping prices high and not increasing production. the trick is going to be keeping prices high enough to pay out maximum dividends while not tanking demand.

the other trick is apparently big-dicking russia out of fully cornering the euro natural gas market. natural gas use is climbing fast, and it's expected to overtake coal and eventually oil in the next 20 years or so.

it's such a loving crack ping thinking about all these fuckheads still plotting their business-as-usual great-game fossil-fuel world domination on a hundred-year-plus timeline. jesus christ. this is all so stupid. none a this matters.

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Rectal Death Adept posted:

Did you all hear that by 2040 the New York Pension Fund will only invest in net* zero** carbon*** entities****?

*scope 1 emissions
**including carbon credits purchased by entities in which the entity owns stock
***co2 only
**** gently caress you

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

biosphere collapse:

Pepe Silvia Browne posted:

all you can do is watch, hoot, and holler

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

product advertising is an Olympic tradition and occidentals are just mad the Chinese are selling nuclear power plants instead of coke

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

SniperWoreConverse posted:

"One of BARACK OBAMA'S favorite books"

he loves it when people write about his success

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

i say swears online posted:

i read the plot synopsis and his victorious solutions to climate change were an international carbon credit and technological advances

he went on chapo to talk about it and he said the book was an exercise in trying to lay out a possible solution - any solution. definitely only a partially successful effort.

it's pretty obvious where the exercise took him when ecoterrorism (shown to only be effective when it's doing things like knocking planes out of the sky or freeing slaves) suddenly disappeared as a major factor halfway through the book and he was like "well maybe a new religion, and central banks... and china... maybe... but everyone who matters will be targeted for assassination by capital and only survive with luck and state backing."

i doubt he's interested in or really capable of writing an extended down-in-the-weeds description of the multidecade guerilla war he hints at. he just needed to give a few examples and show one would be necessary to make existing world systems seek a new equilibrium. most of the actual violence seems to happen semi-off-screen in his books while he focuses on the social/economic/political systems that might arise to enable postwar stability (as tenuous as that last bit was this time around).

KSR is pretty radicalized i think, but self-defines his job as an SF writer as imagining optimistic, plausible outcomes and there aren't a lot of ways to do that here. i think he probably sees ending capitalism as a key part of a real solution but thinks it's even less likely than carboncrypto creating a net-negative economy. which is probably true, lol.

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

more like your momdragon deez nuts

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

honestly i was a little surprised with how receptive matt "we've already decided the answer is genocide" christman was to KSR's "hope and community above all things" perspective when they had the interview/he reviewed the book. feels like his recent project of tracing the interplay of american religion and capitalism is rooted in that discussion and i'm interested to see if he eventually synthesizes something cool.

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Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

there's a great future
or at least there was. one word:
microplastics. lol

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