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fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013


Do you consider modern Russia a communist country because a lot of current leadership were members of the party some time ago (and are actually alive)?

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fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Terminal autist posted:

Hopefully the war is quick and as bloodless as possible. Its increasingly clear the West and NATO only view Ukraine as a pawn in the most cynical chess game around.

I would not hope for active mass invasion of Russian forces personally, but thats me.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Red and Black posted:

As for the war in the Donbass, that's a matter of home grown separatists who also don't want to be part of Ukraine, and who object to the hyper nationalist government introduced in 2014 and its disregard for their culture and ethnicity. Russia has probably supported them, but at the core it's a problem that Ukraine brought on itself by alienating its own population.

At its core is massive and continuous cash and arms support from Russia that helped bandits take over the region and make a stand since 2014. No one from the leadership of "Novorossia" (Borodai, Zacharchenko, Gubarev, Strelkov, Pushilin) were affiliated with the Regions Party that has been the main representative voice of Donbass prior to Maidan.
Its not "probably" - active participation of Russian military was proven long time ago, as was their culpability in shooting down MH17

Red and Black posted:

So you're saying that Russia has an equivalent of the Azov battalion? I'd love to see your evidence.

Wagner Group that happily included DSHRG Rusich into itself after they got out of DNR (and escaped an inveitable fatal elevator accident)

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Now I'd like to see how much this stupid loving flex costed (in addition to another kick in ruble's balls)

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Trump posted:

Didn't one of the doom and gloom tweets predict this? Or was this vote publically known?

Yes, it was set to voting few days ago

In a funny turn of events this one was proposed by non-dominant party - CPRF; it is extremely inflammatory worded BUT obviously United Russia cant allow to vote against recognizing DNR (dont want to be seen as traitors or weaklings)... so they proposed another appeal, that sends the final decision to be DISCUSSED with Foreign Ministry (and, presumably, to be set on hold eternally).
So there are going to be two unanimously approved conflicting Appeals.

Clown show

fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 12:55 on Feb 15, 2022

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

The document is non binding anyway (it is an airy Appeal) so the President can sneeze into it if he wants.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Raskolnikov38 posted:

don’t forgot to include the hundreds of billions the west dumped into ukraine the past few weeks over this incredibly obvious farce

I'll let american posters care about that (can't forget the american feelings, the most important in the world) while most state hospitals are overworked to the point of implosion and my president plays a dumb map game

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

Hmm... That doesn't seem right...

Military expenditure as percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) in highest spending countries 2020



Looks good, last time Russia overcommitted to an arms race worked so well!

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Majorian posted:


So since then, Russia has engaged in a more assertive mode of geopolitics. So far it has worked out pretty well for them - much better than the previous strategy, at the very least. That doesn't mean that the rest of the world should roll over and show its belly whenever Putin threatens another country. What it does mean is that a strategy of containing a Russia that is an energy-exporting superpower is ultimately doomed to fail. We cannot engage them militarily, and we cannot contain them. So that leaves us with diplomacy, and that means trading concessions so that all sides can save face as best they can. It may or may not succeed at stopping episodes like this from popping up in the future - we can't know the outcome for certain. But we do know that it's really the only way forward that has any hope of succeeding. The "gently caress you, you're a defeated enemy, you get nothing" strategy is what got us here in the first place.

Getting kicked out of G8 and being treated like an abusive alcoholic neighbour from upstairs (compared to successful regional bullies like China and India) doesn't strike me as a massive geopolitical achievement. Containment seems to work because unless Brent goes back and stays at 100 Russia is not going to impress anyone and the west can just wait until the current leadership cashes out.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Majorian posted:

How does any of that play out in reality, though? The G8 was already a meaningless, obsolete relic, and the rest of the world will still gladly do business with Russia, alcoholic neighbor or not. Western Europe will still buy their energy. NATO's not going to expand. Moscow has shown that it can cause an absurd level of panic just by moving troops around within its own borders. If there's any lesson that Russia has learned over the past thirty years of diplomacy, it's that it really is better to be feared than loved.

G8 is a relic but shuffling tank divisions like a demented wargamer is forward thinking, okay.

2014 and the current ridiculous affair have secured the continuous need for NATO in current members and improved the views on it in neutral countries. Ukraine and Georgia are lost from positive Russian influence for good.

Dunno what lessons can be learned when with Yeltsin CIS was a thing that mattered and the current Russia Stronk cant keep Azerbaijan from reheating the conflict with Armenia.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Mr Hootington posted:

After Russia is pushed out of Eastern Ukraine, what should be done so that area feels more unity to greater ukraine instead of russia?

Rebuilding of infrastructure, proper political representation in the region, easing off on language laws, repatriation program for refugees and amnesty for most rebels.
If Poroshenko comes back to power you can kiss most of it goodbye because he would go head first into the swamp and do insane poo poo of throwing meat to his base.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Mr Hootington posted:

So no realistic solutions to the situation beyond letting it breakaway.

Once Russian advisors/leaders pack up and the cashflow stops it would go back into Ukraine near-instantly because it is not really a self-sustainable region and turning into permanent hellhole like Transnistria is not a fate that people still left there would prefer.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Mr Hootington posted:

Why would a populace who were oppressed while part of Ukraine want to rejoin ukraine? Seems counter intuitive.

Because Glorious Russia that fed them fairytales of rejoining for a decade prior to 2014 left them in a ditch for seven years of war under the rule of small time criminals while focusing on Crimea.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

Is this dominant theme in Russia? "Ukrainian authorities are murdering people on the street indiscriminately we must save them from themselves!"

Yes, the ridiculous story of a crucified boy is still the go to example of Russian propaganda

The Bloody Pastor and his homonazi cyborgs are gonna get ya!!!

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013


Self-imposed refugee crisis, bold strategy

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Discendo Vox posted:

At least on the propaganda side, probably; propaganda systems in Russia are a bunch of different silos, some under the control of individual plutocrats, doing things they think Putin wants. This winds up contributing to the whole incoherent, truth-eroding firehose effect of it.

Yes and you can frequently encounter different networks of Telegram channels and the like serving different, frequently competing entities

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Mesmerized by this DNR museum

https://twitter.com/andante_sen/status/1494713543274508288?t=c7fUQSzSbgG4HP4guU5n7w&s=19

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Rodiel posted:


Also Putin has already won, he made the US look stupid and ineffectual vs Russias ability to provide gas to Europe

Love that victory by kicking your own stock market in the balls and manufacturing a refugee situation in your own country to get senpai Biden to notice you

Thats not blood in my mouth thats victory wine

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Rodiel posted:

So then what was Russias end game here?

I am not a Kremlinologist or a taro reader (so won't make big buxx on substack or American legacy media) so I cant tell what the hell is their plan until the smoke clears and my opinion is as useless as most of predictive analytics seen ITT and elsewhere last few weeks but

I would guess its either:
a round of expensive sabre rattling to get noticed and be taken seriously by the west;
or an actual invasion to secure LDNR with permanent Russian presence in the open and to try out military in action (TBD if it happens still)

Both sound like something that would make leadership feel very important. Neither look like plans with regard for any long-term consequences but we are in luck because most of actions that Putin done in his current two terms were actions of someone that cared more about loving around than finding out.

With these freaks most things are better explained through incompetence, not malice.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Rodiel posted:

Russians are humans to, they have the same wants and needs as you. Stop this racist poo poo for real, its making the situation worse.

I guessed having a Russian writer drinking vodka as avatar and writing in unnatural English would alert people of my nationality but oh well

I meant Putin amd his buddies of course, we dont make any decisions lmao

Yes we have needs and wants - mainly for our senile grandpa Vova to go install Hearts of Iron if he want to move tanks and stop screwing us and our friends in Ukraine up.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Majorian posted:

When their military is weak and there aren't buffer states between them and their powerful enemies, they tend to wind up with eras like the Time of Troubles, Napoleon's invasion, the Eastern Front in WWI, Hitler in WWII, and the period of the West dictating their internal policies to ruinous outcomes that we call the 90s.

Buffer client states along the border would have protected Russia from Jeffrey Sachs rolling in a land invasion and giving Egor Gaidar advice. Sure.

We are in 21st century. Its not buffer states, its pure post-imperial resentiment, they (either leadership or people trusting them) want to lord over people.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Flavahbeast posted:

I still think this is pretty likely, the pre-recorded evacuation crisis video was stored in a folder called 'mongoose throw' (I've seen some translate it as 'mongoose strike' instead)



Mongooses (mongeese?) are animals that hunt a lot like small cats, they tire prey out with feigned attacks. The huge troop movements could just be a feint to exhaust the Ukrainians and make accomplishing some other goal easier, with fake invasion plans being fed to the americans to make them look stupid when nothing happens

You are overthinking, its because Rikki Tikki Tavi (mongoose from Kipling's story and popular Soviet cartoon) saved kids from snakes and Nagaina, the lead snake from the story sounds similar to Ukraina.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013


There is 1 million active personnel in Russian army so that assessment sounds like nonsense

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/1495712958294409221?t=6YVuGfAHGLzjlYv0v1ktzA&s=19

Rus propaganda last week feels like total amateur hour which is... hopeful? That means there is no coherent narrative playbook from the top until Ukrainians gently caress up for real and the random false flags so far are cheap improv.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Tigey posted:

This feels like some kind of weird SPECTRE meeting where at any moment Putin is going to push a button and one of the chairs falls into an underground tank of piranhas.

If Steiner attacks, everything will be alright

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

GABA ghoul posted:

Holy loving poo poo, this is insane. Watch his speech, dude lost his mind

I am happy yall are now getting the taste of a real botox grandpa and his amateur historian arc, not happy about the circumstances of course

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

What, you dont just love leader of a nuclear power whining about very bigly unfair Brest Treaty and traitorous commies on national tv in 2022

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Aramis posted:

I will admit that I'm not particularly versed in Eastern European culture and sensibilities, and there's probably a lot being lost in translation here. That being said, that speech comes across as shockingly inefficient rhetoric-wise to my ears. What purpose does this serve? It's not like anyone who isn't already fully on board could possibly be swayed by this.

Add to that the bizarrely distanced event from this morning, and I can't help but think that Putin really does not have a single advisor working for him.

Bruh the whole russian speaking twitter is in stitches

The only thing you are missing is how droning and rambling it is, same way non English speakers think Trump can talk coherently

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

QuoProQuid posted:

Putin relating a conversation with Bill Clinton ("which I've never discussed before") where he allegedly asked, "Why do you want to make an enemy about us?" and was told "It's not about our political regime. It's that they don't need a big and independent country like Russia."

Wonderful evening at little st. James

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013



Stonks looking very good mr President!!!

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

buglord posted:

When I was reading this thread last night I noticed that there was a difference between Russian conscripts and private soldiers. Both seem Russia sourced, but private soldiers are paid better and are seemingly treated better? Are conscripts the ones that don’t get much equipment, get hazed into suicide, get their pay skimmed from higher ups so on? Or do both types of troops get that. Sorry if this is off topic, I’ll take it elsewhere. I just kept mocking the distinction here.

Conscripts are drafted at 18 (or usually when they drop out or finish higher education) and spend one year in the force, which is not much time to make a proper soldier so they are mostly used as free workforce. Army prefers not to use them in action because of reputation/media risks, they remember Chechnya. Due to the nature of draft (people generally dont want to be there and lose a year of youth slaving on some general summer house), there is a rich culture of hazing (dedovshina) and there are regular incidents of conscripts dyimg of negligence or going mad and shooting up their comrades.

"Contractors" are the ones who signed for it - usually recruiters swarm around draftees at the end of their term with offers. They sign for 2 years and upwards and actually see action - Syria, etc. They are professional army so everyone understands why they are there, so the amount of poo poo on base is less.

Then there are mercenaries - Wagner group and friends. Formally illegal but sanctioned, the pay is much better but you certainly go to participate in war crimes and may end up abandoned by mother Russia if needed. Favourite destination for former volunteers that participated in the Ukrainian events.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

RaffyTaffy posted:

Bit disapointed to not see any anti war protests in general

I kind of remember these but was a bit young
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/15_February_2003_anti-war_protests

Anti-war movements now tend to have an isolationist vector and expect every agressive country to have their own active anti-war movement. Predictably, this does not account for the simple fact that not-democratic countries exist and that they dont tolerate protestors. Very convenient.

Stop the war coalition for example still havent said anything after Putin's speech but they are useless here so let it just be on their conscience. The Gravel kids statement is good but only useful for whatever asinine interleft beefs they engage this week. Other posters are right that westerners camping around Russian embassies wont accomplish anything but make some people feel good about themselves one way or the other.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

boofhead posted:

A poster a few pages back made the comment that the most effective sanctions would be repossessing the laundered assets of the Russian oligarchy in western countries, I know it's politically not going to ever happen but I do sympathise with the idea. I wonder if that would actually help marshall a legitimate anti-Putin movement within Russia, so far it seems like his control is absolute but if the cost is just a bunch of Russian conscripts dying, they seem fine with that so far

UK finally scrapped Tier 1 visas, hopefully its a start

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Groda posted:

Wait, what?

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-60410844

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013


All hail the First Galactic Donbass

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

https://twitter.com/PaulSonne/status/1496169564849291268?t=6LvEVBv6JWxDhwFjQLQFTA&s=19

Very normal

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013


Lmao Zhirinovsky dodged sanctions due to being hospitalized with rona.
Master at work

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Sir John Falstaff posted:

Honestly wondering how much of it has to do with Putin's (at least rumored) health concerns. He has clearly had ambitions to restore Russia's sphere of influence for a long time, but previously seemed more content to take an incremental approach. Wonder if this is him realizing that he has only a short time left.

I think it is the combination of being extra isolated through pandemic, with fewer people meeting him and providing info (two weeks quarantine for any non-head of state visitor), and Kazakhstan happening with all reverence for granddady Nazarbaev evaporating in days. He is gone.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Very tempted to make a map of Russia with "gifts from Mongol khans" and "Ukrainian colonies".



Big thanks to Grandpa Vova for setting the international defense discourse at Paradox forums level

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fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Also, noble FSB troopers were able to stop a terror plot organized by Ukrainian Right Sector Nazi Jehovah's Witnesses with pagan rune tattos.
https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1496440521153298441

Ah yes, Right Sector terrorist carrying around "I <3 Ukraine" stickers with Ukraine map WITHOUT CRIMEA on it
and "Yarosh Business card" is still in use https://www.smh.com.au/world/ukrain...im%20seriously.

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