Ukraine: The straw that broke the camel's blyat

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Internet VFW > Ukraine: The straw that broke the camel's blyat

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

SMEGMA_MAIL posted:

Like what is Russia's endgame here? I can't imagine them holding areas outside the breakaway republics long but then what is the point of invading if they don't?

Split Ukraine like Germany after WW2, except instead of the FRG and GDR you get The Ukraine and Novorossiya. Novorossiya will democratically vote for Anschluss a couple of months or years down the line. The Ukraine will be deindustrialized and become a refugee camp for every Ukrainian who doesn't want to become a good Russian Russian-language-only citizen. Also, both countries will have puppet governments, and The Ukraine gets permanent military bases of Kadyrov Chechen peacekeepers, and no military of their own.

Something like that.

# ¿ Feb 25, 2022 15:44

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# ¿ May 16, 2024 22:42

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

Comrade Blyatlov posted:

has the ukraine invasion displaced brexit as the biggest self-own globally yet?

#ukranschluss

# ¿ Feb 26, 2022 23:30

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1497668093996421127

Of course they do.

# ¿ Feb 27, 2022 00:41

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

quote:

A new world is being born before our eyes. Russia's military operation in Ukraine has ushered in a new era - and in three dimensions at once. And of course, in the fourth, internal Russian. Here begins a new period both in ideology and in the very model of our socio-economic system - but this is worth talking about separately a little later.
Russia is restoring its unity - the tragedy of 1991, this terrible catastrophe in our history, its unnatural dislocation, has been overcome. Yes, at a great cost, yes, through the tragic events of a virtual civil war, because now brothers, separated by belonging to the Russian and Ukrainian armies, are still shooting at each other, but there will be no more Ukraine as anti-Russia. Russia is restoring its historical fullness, gathering the Russian world, the Russian people together - in all its totality of Great Russians, Belarusians and Little Russians. If we had abandoned this, if we had allowed the temporary division to take hold for centuries, then we would not only betray the memory of our ancestors, but would also be cursed by our descendants for allowing the disintegration of the Russian land.
Vladimir Putin has assumed, without a drop of exaggeration, a historic responsibility by deciding not to leave the solution of the Ukrainian question to future generations. After all, the need to solve it would always remain the main problem for Russia - for two key reasons. And the issue of national security, that is, the creation of anti-Russia from Ukraine and an outpost for the West to put pressure on us, is only the second most important among them.

The first would always be the complex of a divided people, the complex of national humiliation - when the Russian house first lost part of its foundation (Kiev), and then was forced to come to terms with the existence of two states, not one, but two peoples. That is, either to abandon their history, agreeing with the insane versions that "only Ukraine is the real Russia," or to gnash one's teeth helplessly, remembering the times when "we lost Ukraine." Returning Ukraine, that is, turning it back to Russia, would be more and more difficult with every decade - recoding, de-Russification of Russians and inciting Ukrainian Little Russians against Russians would gain momentum. And if the West consolidates full geopolitical and military control over Ukraine, its return to Russia would become completely impossible - it would have to fight for it with the Atlantic bloc.

Now this problem is gone - Ukraine has returned to Russia. This does not mean that its statehood will be liquidated, but it will be reorganized, re-established and returned to its natural state of part of the Russian world. Within what boundaries, in what form will the alliance with Russia be consolidated (through the CSTO and the Eurasian Union or the Union State of Russia and Belarus)? This will be decided after the end is put in the history of Ukraine as anti-Russia. In any case, the period of the split of the Russian people is coming to an end.
And here begins the second dimension of the coming new era - it concerns Russia's relations with the West. Not even Russia, but the Russian world, that is, three states, Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, acting in geopolitical terms as a single whole. These relations have entered a new stage - the West sees the return of Russia to its historical borders in Europe. And he is loudly indignant at this, although in the depths of his soul he must admit to himself that it could not be otherwise.

Did someone in the old European capitals, in Paris and Berlin, seriously believe that Moscow would give up Kyiv? That the Russians will forever be a divided people? And at the same time when Europe is uniting, when the German and French elites are trying to seize control of European integration from the Anglo-Saxons and assemble a united Europe? Forgetting that the unification of Europe became possible only thanks to the unification of Germany, which took place according to the good Russian (albeit not very smart) will. To swipe after that also on Russian lands is not even the height of ingratitude, but of geopolitical stupidity. The West as a whole, and even more so Europe in particular, did not have the strength to keep Ukraine in its sphere of influence, and even more so to take Ukraine for itself. In order not to understand this, one had to be just geopolitical fools.
More precisely, there was only one option: to bet on the further collapse of Russia, that is, the Russian Federation. But the fact that it did not work should have been clear twenty years ago. And already fifteen years ago, after Putin's Munich speech, even the deaf could hear - Russia is returning.

Now the West is trying to punish Russia for the fact that it returned, for not justifying its plans to profit at its expense, for not allowing the expansion of the western space to the east. Seeking to punish us, the West thinks that relations with it are of vital importance to us. But this has not been the case for a long time - the world has changed, and this is well understood not only by Europeans, but also by the Anglo-Saxons who rule the West. No amount of Western pressure on Russia will lead to anything. There will be losses from the sublimation of confrontation on both sides, but Russia is ready for them morally and geopolitically. But for the West itself, an increase in the degree of confrontation incurs huge costs - and the main ones are not at all economic.
Europe, as part of the West, wanted autonomy - the German project of European integration does not make strategic sense while maintaining the Anglo-Saxon ideological, military and geopolitical control over the Old World. Yes, and it cannot be successful, because the Anglo-Saxons need a controlled Europe. But Europe needs autonomy for another reason as well � in case the States go into self-isolation (as a result of growing internal conflicts and contradictions) or focus on the Pacific region, where the geopolitical center of gravity is moving.

But the confrontation with Russia, into which the Anglo-Saxons are dragging Europe, deprives the Europeans of even the chances of independence - not to mention the fact that in the same way Europe is trying to impose a break with China. If now the Atlanticists are happy that the "Russian threat" will unite the Western bloc, then in Berlin and Paris they cannot fail to understand that, having lost hope for autonomy, the European project will simply collapse in the medium term. That is why independent-minded Europeans are now completely uninterested in building a new iron curtain on their eastern borders - realizing that it will turn into a corral for Europe. Whose century (more precisely, half a millennium) of global leadership is over in any case - but various options for its future are still possible.
Because the construction of a new world order - and this is the third dimension of current events - is accelerating, and its contours are more and more clearly visible through the spreading cover of Anglo-Saxon globalization. A multipolar world has finally become a reality - the operation in Ukraine is not capable of rallying anyone but the West against Russia. Because the rest of the world sees and understands perfectly well - this is a conflict between Russia and the West, this is a response to the geopolitical expansion of the Atlanticists, this is Russia's return of its historical space and its place in the world.

China and India, Latin America and Africa, the Islamic world and Southeast Asia - no one believes that the West leads the world order, much less sets the rules of the game. Russia has not only challenged the West, it has shown that the era of Western global domination can be considered completely and finally over. The new world will be built by all civilizations and centers of power, naturally, together with the West (united or not) - but not on its terms and not according to its rules.

google translate of this:
https://ria.ru/20220226/rossiya-1775162336.html

e: poo poo, there was a lot more :stare:

Hannibal Rex fucked around with this message at 01:21 on Feb 27, 2022

# ¿ Feb 27, 2022 01:15

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

Terrifying Effigies posted:

My suspicion is that the UA regulars are practicing opsec re: smartphones and social media given their experiences in Donbas with Russians exploiting Ukrainian cell phones for targeting. They've learned the hard way over the past eight years that you don't run around posting Tiktoks of your sick shots when the other side has SIGINT capabilities.

My suspicion is that someone is running a coordinated campaign to keep social media that compromises Ukrainian positions from popping up, but it's really not my area, so that that with a grain of :tinfoil:

# ¿ Feb 27, 2022 16:59

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Russia

quote:

Sources in the Moscow Patriarchy called it a new sect: "Some structure, maybe even having thought out the technology of realization of its plan, spread nets for appealing people to another post-, or super-, or overreligious sect"

I only heard about Project Russia a couple of days ago, but I'm kinda worried Russia has a death cult of its own now, and Putin has a cordon of bodyguards even his oligarchs can't get through. Sorry for being so :tinfoil:

, but I'm living in a major European city. Maybe the perspective is different overseas.

e: Let me add this: gently caress neutrality, and gently caress appeasement.

# ¿ Feb 27, 2022 17:18

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

Has anyone investigated whether Putin's nuclear alert video was prerecorded too?

# ¿ Feb 27, 2022 23:12

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

BREAKING: Russian National Bank announces Putcoin.

# ¿ Feb 28, 2022 01:57

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

Naked Bear posted:

Hey, I'll be the first person to put my hand up and say that, a week ago, I thought that the Russians were going to roll over Ukraine in a matter of days. I'm happy to admit that I was wrong and I hope to continue to be in this regard.

I have zero military experience, just a history hobby.

I was extremely uncertain how this would turn out. In my wildest dreams, I was hoping for at least a Winter War 2, where Ukraine would be able to bloody Russia's nose enough that they might get a livable compromise - but Ukraine's terrain seemed far too open for any kind of similar performance against a superior modern army.
It did seem like Russia didn't bring enough troops to besiege cities.
For a few days before things kicked off, I had the notion it was brinksmanship and misdirection, so the world would sigh with relief when Putin "merely" announced that Belarus would be reintegration with Russia.

But this, this is absolutely unreal. Potemkin's Army.

# ¿ Feb 28, 2022 06:57

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

Mr. Nice! posted:

https://twitter.com/NTarnopolsky/status/1498358635847639040

Worrying this wasn't the Russians but Azov - but they probably have better things to do right now, and creating such a narrative would be precisely what Russian saboteurs might have been ordered to do, to galvanize support against the "Nazis". Just stating the obvious, I guess.

# ¿ Feb 28, 2022 19:13

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

SlowBloke posted:

I think he made well clear where his allegiances are, even if for morally correct motives, he is now pretty much a puppet much like Seagal to trot around to make Russia look like not an authoritarian cleptocracy to westeners. If he is not aware of being a propaganda item, he is an idiot.

I'm not following the guy, so I don't know what previous statement he's referring to but I read that tweet as "There are severe restrictions on what I can say, but I've been an enormous idiot about Russia."

# ¿ Mar 1, 2022 12:58

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

https://support.google.com/maps/thread/152809911/terrorists-use-google-maps-tags-to-adjust-the%20fires-please-help

Got this from a friend, can anyone verify this is legit?

Russian saboteurs use google maps "places" to target installations in cities for artillery. The original request is 6 hours old, I can't believe opening a support request is the fastest way to get google to act.

# ¿ Mar 1, 2022 22:54

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

https://youtu.be/wCjBki16zl0

Timothy Snyder / Yuval Harari livestream, if you're interested in that kind of thing.

# ¿ Mar 2, 2022 15:06

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

A.o.D. posted:

Putin won't stop at Ukraine if he's not stopped. This needs to be understood. If his nuclear threat is successful in getting him what he wants he will advance his brinksmanship.

Putin won't live long enough to amass enough military, political and economic capital for another adventure like this. Even if the rumors about him being sick are wrong. Well, I'm going to qualify this that Moldova and Georgia are much softer targets than Ukraine; so if they're what you're thinking of, then mabe yes, but that's the extent of his worst case options.

The question is what kind of example the Ukrainian War will set for his inevitable successor. I'm pretty sure Putin is doing this because he knows his time is limited, but an successor might calm the waves enough that Russia can consolidate the gains Putin has made.

# ¿ Mar 2, 2022 16:12

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

CommieGIR posted:

It is from 2015, but feels appropriate to bring it back

It also includes the Azov flag, so...

# ¿ Mar 2, 2022 18:36

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

FrozenVent posted:

You do not want to gently caress with Hamburg customs.

Indeed.

They had their own TV show at one point, and it was basically the German The Wire.

https://youtu.be/dYonVQauk-E

# ¿ Mar 2, 2022 23:33

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

Comrade Blyatlov posted:

Haha her expression is amazing

No idea what they're saying, but serious Fox Mulder/Dana Scully vibes.

# ¿ Mar 3, 2022 16:29

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

https://twitter.com/risj_oxford/status/1499007132934582274?t=MALLCSqYE7qtEio-ni4JXA&s=19

quote:

More recently, it was December when another whistleblower again a civic source told us that more war with Ukraine is on the agenda told us that Putin had decided and boasted to his small circle of loyalists that he was going to start a war in Ukraine and that he was going to actually consider using tactical nuclear weapons, and that this has actually frightened everybody well. Except for a very small, militarized elite. That he trusted, that he had stopped just stopped trusting the larger elite economic elites that are traditionally his buddies and childhood friends. And he only trusted a few really corrupt militarized, gung ho nut cases.

Hail 2S7, I guess...

# ¿ Mar 5, 2022 02:33

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

M_Gargantua posted:

So two new lines of discussion this morning (Kyiv local) among the natsec policy wonks. One being that between providing weapons and the occasional Ukrainian plane getting aid in Poland for all rules lawyering makes us effectively at war with Russia. And this makes Putin feel threatened. He's persoanlly said that its an act of war just like sanctions but its hard to tell how much of that is bluster.

And Two it seems that Sputnik and Russia Today are printing dozens of stories each about a Ukrainian weapons nuclear program funded by the US. One that was supposedly months away from completion in RT's case! Just incredible consent manufacturing, and a clear signal Putin seems very willing to escalate this further. I am personally worried they're going to try some sort of CBRN false flag or something else very nasty, if not use a tactical nuke to try to force an immediate surrender out of fear.

We're at this stage right now:

FSB whistleblower posted:

Now it remains to be seen that some loving adviser will convince the top to start a conflict with Europe demanding to reduce some sanctions. Or reduce, or war. What if they refuse? Now I do not rule out that then we will be drawn into a real international conflict, like Hitler in 1939. And then our Z will be compared to us with a swastika.

Is there a possibility of a local nuclear strike? Yes. Not for military purposes (it will not give anything - this is a defense breakthrough weapon), but with the aim of intimidating others. At the same time, the soil is being prepared to turn everything to Ukraine - Naryshkin and his SVR are now digging the earth to prove that they secretly created nuclear weapons there. drat, they are now hammering on what we have long studied and dismantled: you can’t draw evidence here on your knee, and the presence of specialists and uranium (Ukraine has a lot of depleted isotope 238) is nothing. There the production cycle is such that you can’t do it imperceptibly. You can’t even make a “dirty” bomb imperceptibly, but the fact that their old nuclear power plants can produce weapons-grade plutonium (plants like REB-1000 produce it in minimal quantities as a “by-product” of the reaction) - so the Americans introduced such control there with the involvement of the IAEA, that sucking on the topic is stupid.

# ¿ Mar 6, 2022 09:34

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

psydude posted:

This is a translation of a different post that was linked yesterday in Russian, from what's apparently a fairly reliable Russian activist site.

The FSB whistleblower is apparently a previous contact of the person who runs gulagu.net, a site that concentrates on uncovering abuse in Russian prisons. Bellingcat ran it past two FSB contacts of theirs, who consider it genuine. They (FSB contacts) don't necessarily agree with everything in it.

But as far as stuff you find on the internet, this is as good as it gets right now, for an inside perspective that matches all the known facts.

# ¿ Mar 6, 2022 17:13

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

MiG Party at Rammstein!

https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/1501268895939837954

Rammstein is the band, the air base is at Ramstein (which the band named itself after).

# ¿ Mar 8, 2022 20:41

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

Fearless posted:

This is assuming they actually find 16k Syrians willing to fight for them (or perhaps not so willing-- I could see Assad emptying out his jails in aid of this but that too would undoubtedly turn into a massive clusterfuck).

I haven't really been paying much attention to Libya, but I think Putin's also tight with Haftar there.

# ¿ Mar 11, 2022 12:15

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

Xakura posted:

Is "Iron Eagle" some existing thing? "Iron" is a pretty bad name/metal for anything aircraft, and, well, it's not an eagle.

Ironygle

# ¿ Mar 28, 2022 10:38

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

Oxygenpoisoning posted:

I don’t know if this got posted during the Iron Eagle chat, but Anonymous released an internal memo of Russians staging POW propaganda.

Which is interesting because I’ve seen some questionable “Ukrainians shoot prisoners in the knee” videos popping up.

Yeah, sorry, but at this point, believing a video of people getting shot in the legs on camera to be fake, but believing a random piece of printed paper to be true is wishful thinking.

I mean, I absolutely get where you're coming from, but if the video was some SFX job, it'd have been debunked by industry experts by now. And if you believe it's a false flag of Russians masquerading as Ukrainians shooting real bullets at real Russian POWs, the necessary logistics for that are mind-boggling. And whatever's the truth, the chance that these POWs live to testify as to who shot them isn't exactly great.

# ¿ Mar 29, 2022 00:51

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

Beefeater1980 posted:

This (a) purports to be a secret document signed by a Very Important Person; and (b) conveniently addresses a recent event (allegations that Ukrainians have been mistreating POWs). Absent outside corroboration, this one’s a fake.

The letter has been debunked now; the signature is fake. Also, the shooting video has been geolocated, Eastern outskirts of Kharkiv.

# ¿ Mar 29, 2022 13:55

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

ASAPI posted:

People are calling you out because you offer no evidence of your claims.

An article, video clip, something.

I don't doubt that most of the things we see and post in this thread are either straight propaganda or at least colored by it.

Right now, the "evidence" is "trust me bro". So please, share your information and your source.

Oxygenpoisoning posted:

Can you post a link? I�d like to share it elsewhere but my googlefu isn�t strong enough to find the evidence.

Sorry, I got my threads mixed up. The primary source is an Italian OSINT guy on Twitter, Bellingcat has picked it up. That's good enough for me. If you disagree, fair enough. But then the burden of proof is on you that it's staged.

Hannibal Rex posted:

https://twitter.com/DavidPuente/status/1508472943663357963?t=M3cnQj579Y8iuxoqUIwdJg&s=19

This is a thread in Italian, but the site of the POW shootings has been geolocated to East of Kharkiv, and the letter that showed up afterwards has been debunked for having used an OTS token signature, if I understand the auto-translate correctly.

Hannibal Rex fucked around with this message at 15:33 on Mar 29, 2022

# ¿ Mar 29, 2022 15:29

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

Oh goddam zelensky dont meet in person

You keep what you kill.

# ¿ Mar 29, 2022 19:18

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

Dance Officer posted:

This is from a few pages back, but watching a dominions youtuber with no credentials whatsoever turn into a popular war commentator has been one hell of a thing.

Yeah, no joke. I usually disregard youtube armchair generals entirely, but I went back and watched his first video on the war, and it's pretty clear that this sort of thing is his day job, while his video game stuff was just a hobby.

# ¿ Apr 2, 2022 12:06

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

Murgos posted:

Just going to keep rewriting the script until Russia is the ever victorious hero.

"By deftly planning and engineering his own overthrow, Vladimir Putin achieved what the West could not - finally bring democracy to Russia"

# ¿ Apr 2, 2022 22:29

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/04/4/7337132/

Belarusian hackers are doing their part - all those Russian soldiers filmed sending their war loot home have been identified.

# ¿ Apr 5, 2022 01:46

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

That Works posted:

I can't find it now but someone linked a scene from a movie I hadn't heard of before and it was basically some Russian operative who was being forcibly interrogated and stated "Russian military isn't a threat, never has been a threat, your entire economy / leadership needs it to be one for them to stay in power" or something like that... anyone remember what that show was? Can't recall for the life of me. It got linked around here early into all this.

The Good Shepherd

# ¿ Apr 8, 2022 19:27

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

Cythereal posted:

We don't know. Fundamentally, we probably never will. That kind of detailed level of knowledge of Russia, its military, their operations, and their history is probably simply not available and never will be available, not even to Russia itself.

If their archives are opened up again, and someone is dedicated enough, it might be possible, but there's a slim chance we'll see a Wages of Destruction for the Cold War Soviet Union in our lifetimes.

# ¿ Apr 8, 2022 19:30

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

A brief overview of the kind of equipment Ukraine is receiving:
https://twitter.com/Caucasuswar/status/1512532609435320325?t=SeK4CN9E02M226FyLYSJFA&s=19

Can't find it again, but I believe there was a NATO statement along the lines of, "we must be prepared that the conflict could take years, and start training Ukrainians to use Western equipment" recently.

# ¿ Apr 9, 2022 20:04

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

Murgos posted:

It’s actually a pretty good example of, “people who ignore history are doomed to repeat it.”

Also "people who ignore nuclear trefoil signs are doomed to glow."

# ¿ Apr 10, 2022 13:36

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

Comrade Blyatlov posted:

Does anyone know anything about the supposed new force commander?

https://www.9news.com.au/world/vladimir-putin-appoints-new-commander-for-ukraine-alexander-dvornikov/e432287e-cbd8-4519-b1cf-1bf6ec69701b

Don't know if this guy's on the level, but his blog posts seem a lot more detailed than the usual Twitter randos.

https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/here-comes-dvornikov-10-april-2022-80b7a09a7ef7

# ¿ Apr 10, 2022 23:41