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Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless
Are there any open source estimates of how much of Ukraine's military forces got taken out during that initial opening blitz, and the subsequent fighting? Without trying to be too ghoulish about it, I'm just wondering if this level of resistance is them fighting at, say, 75%, or something more like 10%. With the talk of being lent more fighter jets I'm assuming at least a decent chunk of what they had got blown up on the ground but I haven't seen any real info on that.

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Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

No apparently you are correct it is one of those same name two things not coincidence type thing

It seemed like a fairly apt and intentional pun.

Comrade Blyatlov posted:

I'm half convinced US troops would be on the ground supporting Russia.

That's almost dumb enough, but it would have to be like the Alabama National Guard getting sent there for full Trumpiness. And being led by... *rolls dice* a college buddy of *roll* Don Jr.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless
Interesting twist on the "Visa and Mastercard shut down operations in Russia": Russian cards will still work inside the country, apparently it's just international usage (non-Russian cards in Russia and Russian cards elsewhere) that are being blocked. So it'll be a big blow for all of the tourists flocking to Russia right now, but most of the populace won't really be affected.

https://twitter.com/SwiftOnSecurity/status/1500306848599228418

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

Grand Fromage posted:

Tactical nuclear weapons likely have a different command and control system and their use is... probably still unlikely, but more plausible than a strategic launch.

What kind of utility would Russia even get out of tactical nukes? It's not like they're fighting off massive Ukrainian tank formations or breaking through impenetrable defensive lines. They're getting plinked by drones and having their vehicles stolen by farmers after running out of gas. A lack of firepower isn't the problem.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

CBJSprague24 posted:

The Chinese Air Force. Noted operators of the F-22.

*insert J-20 and industrial espionage joke here*

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

Oh poo poo boys, we've been found out!

drat it, NATO IT!

Crazy how they had an entire AWACS hidden away in that HQ.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

"Alright, let's get this out on to a tray... nice."

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless
That kinda looks like the opening scene in a docudrama about a guy who ends up making the world's most kickass food truck.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

Yikes. I hadn't really thought about what the equivalent of "ERA with explosives removed" would be for parachutes, but that's frighteningly plausible.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

mlmp08 posted:

Probably S-300 or SA-11 if they did intercept cruise missiles. It is technically possible to hit a cruise missile with MANPADS but it takes nearly perfect circumstances and a bit of luck. The limitation is less the seeker head itself and more the operator seeing the low flying missile and getting the shot off with the proper kinematics to make an intercept in time.

Yeah, this is basically my take on it. Even if you've got an early warning network cueing you in on where to look it's gonna be really hard to visually acquire something the size of a cruise missile with enough time to shoot it. Tactical SAM systems like the SA-11 are designed with cruise missiles in mind as a target set.

One thing that might make a lucky MANPADS shot easier is if Russia is using the same routing for multiple missiles, which gives a MANPADS operator some opportunity to get a sense of what to look for and where. Kind of like what happened with the F-117 that got shot down.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

Are these the sunflowers they were talking about? They sure grow fast.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

EasilyConfused posted:

That's certainly a concern, but it doesn't have the ceiling to hit airliners at cruising altitude. They'd have to hit them soon after takeoff or landing.

Now that I think about it, anyone know how effective are stingers against multi-engined aircraft?

A DHL jet got hit by some kind of MANPADS flying out of Iraq a while back, and while it did gently caress up an engine and a chunk of the wing, the pilots managed to safely make an emergency landing. Now, granted that's one single instance, and not something you necessarily want to bet on, but it's an example of multi-engine aircraft being survivable against MANPADS.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

A.o.D. posted:

Biden isn't going to be our last Baby Boomer president. Have fun with that knowledge!

Even a baby boomer president would be a step up, Biden is the silent generation (pre-baby boom).

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless
Purely from an age perspective is what I meant, I guess "step up" isn't really a good way of putting it.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

Cimber posted:

the f-16 are single seated.

Sure bud, and I suppose they're flown by the Air Force too. :rolleyes:

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

Cimber posted:

Was, it since been retired as the f-14's primary job is no longer in existance. Originally the F-14 was designed to be a platform for the Phoenix missile, a 100+ mile ranged weapon designed to shoot down Soviet bombers before they could get close enough to lob anti-ship missiles at US carrier battlegroups.

With the fall of the USSR the F-14 lacked a major job, and the FA-18 was more versatile and cheaper to operate.

At least Soviet bombers actually existed, the F-15 was designed to defeat a completely fictitious conception of what the MiG-25 was.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless
The cynic in me sees this as just greasing the skids for Putin to go "whoopsie, I didn't mean to do all those awful things, it was just bad intelligence", a la the 2003 Bush administration.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless
Now look fellas, I'm not saying we wouldn't get our boots muddy...

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

Marshal Prolapse posted:

https://twitter.com/lapatina_/status/1512877988316078080?s=21&t=Sao8cdYurmx2dWSEz1Brag

I am deeply concerned about what the Russians would be dropping that it would need a parachute to protect the plane dropping it. Like what in the US arsenal requires a parachute besides a daisy cutter or maybe a Moab?

From the replies on that thread, low altitude drop or cluster munition dispenser both sound plausible. I don't think it's necessarily a ludicrously large explosive.

Not to say that dumping cluster munitions all over a city isn't deeply concerning.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

Marshal Prolapse posted:

Yeah, which is kind of odd since low flying is basically asking for a MANPAD special.

If you're able to drop precisely enough while staying entirely above MANPADS range, then yes, but if not, it kind of makes sense to instead go as low and fast as possible to make it harder to target you. In that situation, a parachute retarded bomb would be useful.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

Marshal Prolapse posted:

I don’t attribute to much about precision and the Russian Air Force,

Well yeah, that's specifically why I could imagine them using that kind of low-tech solution if there was something they actually wanted to target precisely - they aren't able to do it any other way.

Though, ugh, FAE is also depressingly plausible.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

Comrade Blyatlov posted:

It's a True War Story, as told by Tim O'Brien.

I like to describe those sorts of things as not necessarily factual, but nevertheless true in the sense that they accurately convey the essence of their subject matter. Same with Catch-22 and Pentagon Wars.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

Herstory Begins Now posted:

russian state media saying the ship sank seriously damaged due to a fire detonating ammunition on the ship, but the crew was completely evacuated

https://twitter.com/tass_agency/status/1514378082660069379

Several pieces of Ukrainian ammunition, moving at high speed just before they coincidentally exploded in direct contact with the ship's hull.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

McNally posted:

Ships only do this when they're in distress.

They roll over to port at the top of the hour, and to starboard at the bottom of the hour.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

Stravag posted:

So Moskva proves that the russian military isn't the soviet one for sure. The russians COMPLETELY misunderstood what defense in depth meant.

Uh well their flagship is now completely invulnerable to anti-ship missiles, so maybe they're not so dumb after all.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

Cimber posted:

https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1517187794527043585


Seems the FSB isn't the only group out there that can hit foreign targets.

Once is happenstance, twice is misfortune, three times is enemy action insurance fraud.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

Hence the current title for the Tacticlol thread in TFR, "Whatever happens we have got / dual maxim guns with red dot".

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

Bayraktar TB2 posted:

Don't mind me just killing this General, thread

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

LOL

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1517903677692035073

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

Burt posted:

10 inch to the foot? Yep.

I didn't know Subway ran drilling platforms.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

I looked and beheld a rider on a green horse, and its name was HIMARS, and GMLRS followed with him.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

Alan Smithee posted:

I proposed in CD that the Ivan drago spinoff should be him deciding to fight the invading Russian army. It’s a stealth Red Scorpion sequel

Starring Dolph Lundgren with all of his chemical engineering expertise.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

bird food bathtub posted:

Using a drone to blow up a drone jammer is just flexing at that point.

The drone equivalent of this classic pic

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

madeintaipei posted:

Milosch Minderbindervich assured them payout would be forthcoming.

After all, everyone has a share.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

Merlot Brougham posted:

Edit: To not derail too much, The Netherlands are part of The Five Eyes now, or so 3.1 million viewers may believe:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=woD6RYptp58&t=54s

This scenario is invalid because it doesn't incorporate the impact of support from Danaerys' dragons or the use of the One Ring, to say nothing of how Harry Potter's ability to apparate directly into the Kremlin would change the course of a conflict.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

ded posted:

Anything past a 45 degree angle risks the control rods slipping out of the reactor.

A correctly executed barrel roll is an entirely positive-G maneuver.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9pvG_ZSnCc

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

GD_American posted:

What time is it?

WARTIME

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

Slashrat posted:

The one thing to keep in mind about nuclear bombs is that making a nuclear explosion is Hard, and bombs only make it happen through a lot of very precise mechanisms doing a lot of things in the correct order across a very short span of time on the order of milliseconds. Falling short of that, they're just regular bombs packed together with a few dozen kilograms of radioactive material. There'll be a hazmat cleanup job afterwards and probably some roadblocks within a kilometer of the location, but the fallout will be almost entirely political.

On the other (possibly somewhat deader) hand, while designing a bomb requires a lot of precision engineering and timing, once it's actually built it can still be distressingly easy to set off without some careful design considerations. You can have the most intricate detonation sequence in the world, but if it's all initiated by a simple electrical voltage on a single wire, that's not a very safe weapon. A lot of the complexity with modern nukes like PAL codes and fusing systems is intentionally introduced as a way of breaking that sequence into multiple failsafe steps.

That's not to say I think an accidental nuclear detonation is at all likely, even from Russia, but I would have the least faith in the safety of their nukes out of any country.

Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

Turrurrurrurrrrrrr posted:

T55 being Challengered:



Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

Yeah, on the one hand I'm sure War Thunder guys are glad it's not them this time. But it's not a great commentary on your reputation when every report has to start off with "it wasn't War Thunder!"

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Wingnut Ninja
Jan 11, 2003

Mostly Harmless

Flying_Crab posted:

do they think

Lemme just stop you there, the answer is "no".

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