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A pair of really interesting polls catching attention right now: First, we have what people are hearing out of messaging: https://mobile.twitter.com/aedwardslevy/status/1574055846501310464 Followed by what people consider most important: https://mobile.twitter.com/EmGusk/status/1573886721091059712 As additional background, we're starting to see more aggregates putting House control within the margin of error come November
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# ¿ Sep 25, 2022 16:30 |
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# ¿ May 10, 2024 20:54 |
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Justice has made a motion to expedite their Cannon appeal The initial schedule was
They note throughout their document that the stay was narrowly tailored for the most essential relief but they believe the same reasoning used to grant the stay is applicable to essentially everything else.
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# ¿ Oct 1, 2022 06:57 |
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Kalli posted:But they already moderate content, otherwise all those sites would look like pornhub, which also moderates content. Techdirt is on the more fearmongery side of things as it comes to internet legislation, but two good summaries are Why section 230 reform effectively means section 230 repeal and Hello, you've been referred here because you're wrong about section 230 of the communications decency act. If anyone is curious about the topic, I'd recommend you give both a read. From the former, regarding the risk of algorithmic carveouts (which is the legislative version of what Gonzalez is asking the court to invent in Section 230) quote:Algorithmic display carve-outs. Algorithmic display has become a target for many lawmakers eager to take a run at Section 230. But as with every other proposed reform, changing Section 230 so that it no longer applies to platforms using algorithmic display would end up obliterating the statute for just about everyone. And it’s not quite clear that lawmakers proposing these sorts of changes quite realize this inevitable impact. Again, Techdirt is on the radical side of this (in part due to the Thiel-aligned nuisance suit it had to fight from "The Inventor of Email", intending to send it the way of Gawker for pointing out that he's a thinskinned litigious fraud) so read those takes in context and take with the grain of salt. FlamingLiberal posted:There are also efforts underway by anti-abortion states and groups to water down Section 230 so that say, you can sue Google for hosting websites that provide information on how to access abortions or get at-home abortifacients if you are in a place like Missouri. The oversimplified way to understand section 230 is that it answers the question of "Who is responsible for the content on a site, the uploading user or the site itself?" with "The user. Next question?" That doesn't mean that sites can't be liable (Roommates.com, for instance, wasn't liable for user postings that violated the Fair Housing Act. It was liable for their dropdown menu for racial preferences), it just massively narrows the scope of what they can be sued for. ETA: haveblue posted:Why is it stupid? Youtube is not a fully autonomous strong AI, every decision the algorithm makes was the result of human input into its priorities. It surfaces and buries videos based on what Youtube's human operators believe optimizes their business, and not based on social good or anything like that because that's how the humans configured it. It may have evolved into a black box that no one person fully understands, and it may have grown far too large to transition to direct human oversight of all content, but that doesn't necessarily protect them from liability or responsibility to fix it Paracaidas fucked around with this message at 16:58 on Oct 3, 2022 |
# ¿ Oct 3, 2022 16:50 |
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VitalSigns posted:How is that any different from a newspaper letting people submit editorials and then deliberately promoting extremist ones to sell more papers. VitalSigns posted:They could just, you know, NOT recommend violent content on purpose to get people hooked. They don't even have to take it down they just have to stop trying on purpose to get people to watch it!
Again, FB, Google, and the rest of the socials have a tremendous amount to answer for. "Oops, you curated content in any form and now you're liable for everything on your website" (the world Gonzalez is attempting to create) worsens the situation and further consolidates market and sociological power in the hands of the biggies like google, facebook, and their ilk.
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# ¿ Oct 3, 2022 18:45 |
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Paracaidas posted:Justice has made a motion to expedite their Cannon appeal Trump has filed his reply, and it amounts to "nuh uh". They'd like oral arguments to begin no sooner than January of 2023 () and argues in conclusory fashion that the government "cannot possibly be prejudiced" if the appeal drags on as long as Trump would like and that the govenrment "has not and cannot possibly articulate any real risk of loss or harm resulting from a more deliberative process". I've included in this post the sum total of their cites to back these arguments:
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# ¿ Oct 3, 2022 20:21 |
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cgeq posted:I don't think those two are indistinguishable. There's a difference between a terrorist video being uploaded on to a server and then sitting there until someone searches for it by name, versus pushing the terrorist video in front of users because the algorithm detects it's getting great engagement. quote:"you lose all liability protection for user content if you do any curation, moderation, or serve content in anything but a purely random way" cgeq posted:I think there may be a vast middle ground between "purely random" or no content delivery and "getting sued for any and all user content." cgeq posted:Youtube, TikTok, Instagram, etc are making a ton of money and just straight up ignoring a lot of problems because that problematic content generates engagement. They can survive being forced to sacrifice some of that engagement by being more strict and/or better moderating the content some randos and huge webs of shell companies fire hose onto their platforms.
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# ¿ Oct 4, 2022 02:31 |
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cgeq posted:Oof, I dunno. I think proper moderation is the easiest solution, but I'm ignoring that because the companies don't want it and no one's going to make them do it. All parties seem like they would rather just burn it all to the ground rather than put any effort into a workable solution. As it comes to filters, sorting, and tagging... I mean no offense, but it seems like you're pushing for "some curation, but not enough to lead to bad things". Are tags affixed by the creators? If so, whose responsibility is it to make sure the minecraft tag (or exact search term) isn't overrun by explicit pornography and white supremacy videos? We've seen from social trending topics that any popular tag will be filled with irrelevant and, at times, actively harmful content, which knocks out letting the audience assign tags. If youtube is responsible for tagging (or for upkeep on creator/audience tags), we're back to needing full and faultless moderation to avoid the tragic consequences of Gonzalez. cgeq posted:I'm not saying any of this is good but it should get the platform off the hook for "editorializing" and it would still provide users with a (horribly lovely... or maybe just old-fashioned) way to access content. It would completely change the entire ecosystem and the business model of the platform and content creators. The internet ad market would lose a huge revenue channel. But it's an option that achieves the goals and probably still leaves society better off. As to the betterment of society, a series of decisions that futher concentrates power in the hands of the already rich and powerful while erecting massive barriers to dethroning them (removing S230 protections, requiring full moderation, eliminating discovery logic) would need to prevent an awful lot of ills to outweigh the harm it does (and the positive aspects of algorithmic curation it'd kill). YMMV Robviously posted:My guess is he just figured out something that's going to end up coming out in discovery of the lawsuit that he wants to get around. One is the chancery court, in another case, affirming that the shares of a Delaware corporation are personal property and the court can use them to address its judgment same as it could any other property: https://mobile.twitter.com/AnnMLipton/status/1577090454754979840/photo/2 (Paraphrasing: If Musks loses hard enough for specific performance and tries to duck it, a remedy for the courts is forcing the sale of his Tesla stock) The latter is that the court ordered what could be catastrophic discovery from Musk's team last night: https://mobile.twitter.com/chancery_daily/status/1577359588151672844 (In brief: Musk amended his stance to include the revelations of Peiter 'Mudge' Zatko, claiming he was fired as retribution for and to prevent future whistleblowing about Twitter's security and business practices. Zatko was an executive in charge of Trust & Safety at Twitter until he got fired in January. Previous discovery found an email to Musk's legal firm claiming to be "a former Exec at Twitter leading teams directly involving Trust & Safety/Content Moderation", asking to be contacted via "alternate secure means" to share info about twitter. The judge (mostly) granted Twitter's request that they not be forced to take Musk and Zatko's word that the anonymous former exec was definitely not Zatko and even if it was, we promise nobody followed up on the email. If discovery shows either of those to be false, Musk would be in markedly worse shape than he is even today.) Eta: evilweasel posted:yeah, I would also say that "this poorly thought out product design causes measurable harm" is the essence of products liability, and there's not really a good reason it shouldn't apply to the recommendation algorithms. Paracaidas fucked around with this message at 00:34 on Oct 5, 2022 |
# ¿ Oct 5, 2022 00:30 |
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Consider me duly enlightened. Thanks!
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# ¿ Oct 5, 2022 04:27 |
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https://mobile.twitter.com/ZoeTillman/status/1578490204964687872 A bit more detail on where Trump is claiming privilege in the MAL seizures.
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# ¿ Oct 7, 2022 22:05 |
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Jaxyon posted:like it's great that he's claiming that but he's not the executive so he can't actually do that, right? My understanding is that it'd be wrong to mistake that as him being unable to claim any privilege at all, or to argue that certain records are personal under the Presidential Records Act.
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# ¿ Oct 7, 2022 22:44 |
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https://twitter.com/ddayen/status/1579472512735645697 For the many ills of the Biden administration (including some terrible nominees), he's also hit on some very, very good ones. Here's Alvaro Bedoya, who replaced Chopra on the FTC after he was named director of the CFPB, in a speech to the Midwest Forum on Fair Markets on September 22. I strongly recommend clicking through if you find this topic interesting, as there are embedded links to more detail and citations throughout. Phoneposting makes those particularly challenging to embed in my post. It also has an audio version, if you'd prefer to listen rather than read. quote:A Call for Fairness, a Rule for Efficiency
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# ¿ Oct 10, 2022 15:40 |
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Clarste posted:Why the gently caress is anyone defending the recommendation algorithm anyway? It's generally less "all hail the algorithm, bringer of good content and unassailable vessel of perfection" and more section230 absolutism - the belief that any liability for platforms (directly or indirectly) renders 230 deadletter and consolidates power under the current worst actors while killing most of the rest of the interactive internet within a year. I don't have an issue (in a spherical elephant/frictionless room sense) with legislation or rulings that split unsolicited recommendations based on both aggregated and personal user history out for liability but protect the recommendations of, for instance, search engines (to say nothing of moderation and the other 230 protections). I still think the harm done by this hypothetical lawwork is understated by its proponents (Great Replacement will be fine, BLM and (depending on if the terfs win) LGBT/just T content will be yanked), but haven't put enough thought into if it'll be a net positive. I look at the congressional, judicial, and other political voices backing 230 reform, on the other hand, and have very little faith in their ability to make tailored, beneficial changes that don't make every one of these problems worse. But, towards evilweasel's points, that ends up functionally indistinguishable from: evilweasel posted:youtube wants you to think there is no option between forcing them to pre-approve each and every video uploaded to the site (in practice, largely ending the product) or allowing their algorithm to keep trying to find which flavor of extremist videos will get you hooked.
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# ¿ Oct 10, 2022 16:52 |
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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:there have been a lot of conspiracy theories about malevolent outside forces being responsible for Bernie Sanders, but blaming Youtube's a new one Media stories RE Bernie's success on social media and the attendant algorithmic discussion (with increasingly accurate caveats) date back to, at latest, February 2016. It's a Slate story about Bernie back in early 2016 so for obvious reasons I'm linking solely as evidence that the "Personalized/algorithmic social media helped Sanders breakthrough" narrative is anything but new.
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# ¿ Oct 11, 2022 01:45 |
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Staluigi posted:Virtually every time a candidate is accused of being a russian asset it's incredibly dumb but people like gabbard make you have to stop and think about it first even though the connections to modi/rss hindu hypernationalism make more sense As a council member in Honolulu, she was ahead of the curve with both suppressing the first amendment and abusing the unhoused (in fairness, this bill, in its majestic equality, forbade rich and poor alike to leave their property on public sidewalks overnight). Around the same time, she walked back the wild homophobia she entered Hawaii Politics espousing: quote:“To try to act as if there is a difference between ‘civil unions’ and same-sex marriage is dishonest, cowardly and extremely disrespectful to the people of Hawaii who have already made overwhelmingly clear our position on this issue… As Democrats we should be representing the views of the people, not a small number of homosexual extremists.” quote:The contrast between our society and those in the Middle East made me realize that the difference—the reason those societies are so oppressive—is that they are essentially theocracies where the government and government leaders wield the power to both define and then enforce "morality." The rampant Islamophobia, of course, being somewhat of a calling card for her in her career. Checking in with noted piece of poo poo Mike Flynn and his views on her assertions on Fox that it was "mindboggling" Obama was refusing to use quote:“[Gabbard] has taken a very courageous stand in a party that just refuses to face reality,” quote:“I think that what’s important is we look at some of these messages and some of these threats that are being posed by different groups…by identifying the single common element amongst them…groups who are fueled by this radical Islamic ideology then once that’s identified, we understand it, then we can come up with a winning strategy to defeat it both militarily as well as ideologically.” Of course, her advocacy that we continue bombing the gently caress out of the Middle East (except the lion Assad) wasn't all that far from party orthodoxy (even if insisting it's because they're Muslims is a bit mask off). She was, though, one of the few Dems in congress not to sign on to a letter asking Trump to reverse Bannon's appointment. No word on if her opposition was because she promotes the same xenophobic bullshit the letter calls Bannon out for or was some form of returning the favor after press stories dropped about the bigot liking her immigration stances. Which are, to be clear, horrific even by the abysmal standards of American Politics. She displayed great bipartisanship by joining with Republican allies to vote in favor of the SAFE act, requiring “the secretary of Homeland Security, the head of the FBI and the director of national intelligence to sign off on every individual refugee from Iraq and Syria, affirming he or she is not a threat.” To be fair, this is actually a moderation of her earlier stance, proposing legislation that removed any country that had Islamic terrorists from the visa waiver program entirely. Also, delightfully, did not merely vote against but actively opposed a resolution calling for India to "protect the rights and freedoms of religious minorities". Now, I know what you're saying. How can someone who sincerely denounced their own past virulent antichoice and homophobic advocacy based on a newfound belief in religious freedom oppose a resolution in favor of religious freedom. And the answer is either that she changed her political stances out of expediency rather than belief, or that she couldn't abide a resolution calling for the protection of muslims from harassment, discrimination, and mass lynchings. Or, I suppose, it could be both. Frankly the question is less "is she a Russian asset?" (Obviously no), or even "Is she somehow nefariously controlled by Modi?" (Also obviously no), and more "how did such an outright and unrepentant bigot develop so sterling a progressive reputation as to be endorsed by some of the largest leftwing political movements and candidates in the country?" and, as followup, "Why did such a blatant piece of poo poo have a position with the DNC to resign from (e:in Feb of 2016) in the first place?" Paracaidas fucked around with this message at 20:06 on Oct 11, 2022 |
# ¿ Oct 11, 2022 16:21 |
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GreyjoyBastard posted:There seems to be some confusion - as far as I can tell she was not a dnc member in 2022, although it's actually pretty feasible to crowbar someone in if they have support from the state level party. Strictly speaking all you need is a majority (or plurality) vote in the state convention, and in many cases not even that, in TX there are a bunch of caucus specific dnc slots. She was a vice chair in *2016* before it was nationally obvious how awful she was. As we chat timeline, though, the only thing in my post that hadn't happened by the time she resigned her vicechairship (and/or received the endorsements) was the Bannon bit. The rest was knowable to the point it should have been known, even if not nationally obvious.
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# ¿ Oct 11, 2022 20:05 |
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A bit old, but I didn't see this covered: Justice, being full of cops, is a home to a mess of thinskinned whiners who hate any hint of oversight or transparency. Here, we have a thread from Jason Leopold about Justice's remarkably whiny response to the absurd suggestion that they pay the fees that Leopold incurred as he tried to get them to follow their legal obligations. https://twitter.com/JasonLeopold/status/1577317818751537153 https://twitter.com/JasonLeopold/status/1577319808776798208 https://twitter.com/JasonLeopold/status/1577321937121837056 https://twitter.com/JasonLeopold/status/1577324550764736512 https://twitter.com/JasonLeopold/status/1577326471957204992 https://twitter.com/JasonLeopold/status/1577333449815314436 https://twitter.com/JasonLeopold/status/1577404587975139328 My personal favorite portion is: quote:Despite accomplishing almost nothing by filing this suit against EOIR, Plaintiffs seek to have the taxpayer finance it. To which the only plausible reply is to point out that EOIR's willfully delayed response is the only thing that has or will cost the taxpayers money here. I can only imagine that dealing with Leopold and his requests is annoying as gently caress for state, local, and federal officials... but we all have the annoying aspects of the job and "fail to follow the law and whine to the courts" is a novel solution.
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# ¿ Oct 12, 2022 01:58 |
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A rare https://twitter.com/JulesJester/status/1581003471276294144 (Harassing the targets of his counterinvestigation as a warning to anyone else who looks into GOP misdeeds in the future has been the point and worked out rather well, even if he keeps getting curbstomped in court)
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# ¿ Oct 14, 2022 20:55 |
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Charliegrs posted:DOJ has successfully appealed the appointment of the special master in the classified files investigation: They filed an appeal. That's all.
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# ¿ Oct 14, 2022 22:10 |
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Ben Sasse's first few days on the job resulted in a ton of protests around his office.
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# ¿ Oct 26, 2022 03:11 |
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The Left Edge of the Possible: CJR profiles The American Prospect A staggering percentage of my effort posts are either sourced from or summarizing The Prospect and I've been pretty clear in my admiration of David Dayen and what he's been able to do during his time there. Columbia Journalism Review profiles his work and goes deep into the history of the magazine that was previously best known as Kuttner, Starr, and Reich's directionless answer to The Nation and The New Republic. Or for the bloggers it spawned: quote:Not long after the magazine debuted, two of its cofounders were drafted into high-profile roles in the Clinton administration: Starr helped formulate Clinton’s ill-fated healthcare proposal, while Reich was appointed secretary of labor and became one of Clinton’s closest advisers. In later years the Prospect ran a group blog, Tapped, which was an important node in the progressive blogosphere of the aughts and launched the careers of Ezra Klein, Matthew Yglesias, Dana Goldstein, Adam Serwer, and Jamelle Bouie, among others. The column is as masturbatory as you'd expect, but I do find it interesting that Dayen appears to have been accurate in his assessment when taking over the magazine: quote:Dayen told me that he took the Prospect job because it offered an opportunity to do something that other progressive magazines weren’t The Day One Agenda is still probably the cornerstone of Dayen's time in charge, and one of the most impactful works of activist journalism in a decade. How we broke the supply chain does a better job of explaining inflation than the Fed or a thousand wonks, and he's one of the only writers who kept his eye on the ball well enough to explain how the Inflation Reduction Act came to pass -- with a memory longer than the past couple months. If you're someone who likes to know the "why" behind successes and failures and would like it answered without being prefaced by "The reason it's not Biden's fault is", I can't recommend their work enough. Even (and especially) when I disagree.
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# ¿ Nov 8, 2022 17:28 |
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Silly Burrito posted:God willing, one of DOJ/NY/GA has Trump in jail for 2024. Congress (for obvious reasons) can't make a law restricting someone's eligibility for president beyond what exists in the constitution.
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# ¿ Nov 10, 2022 03:59 |
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Automata 10 Pack posted:Heads up: Biden’s rhetoric has changed after the midterms to be “We need to look forwards, not backwards. We need to heal the country.” In https://twitter.com/MEPFuller/status/1590703319240298496 The House Freedom Caucus seeks to enshrine the unofficial policy of the House's most famous child predator unless, apparently, it conflicts with their other goal: getting to force a vote on anything that half of their membership agrees to cosponsor. There are many flaws with the relatively recent emergence of the strong speaker structure in the House but this is the Freedom Caucus opening the (potential) speakership contest with a demand that the speaker cede most of their negotiating power off the jump and the right to force their colleagues into damaging votes on irrelevant and unpassable amendments at any time. Fuller doesn't highlight this in the tweet but don't sleep on the motion to vacate either. Been a minute since American Parliament has had the ability to table a vote of no confidence. The reason people are talking about the potential chaos of a slim majority is this: Even if you assume that 75% Tortilla Coasters are all bark and no bite and aren't willing to let absolutely everything burn to get their way, the remaining quarter of the caucus can easily deny the votes necessary to be named speaker (or pass any bill without Dem support). If the speaker candidate does agree to the extortionate demands, he (or she?) can look forward to every military spending bill including an amendment the house must vote on to rename all the renamed confederate bases after the patriotic political prisoners of January 6. On the other hand, if the 218-217 scenario comes to pass, Newhouse and Valadao could kill all GOP-only legislation unless they're promised that only Republicans who didn't oppose impeachment are allowed in leadership. More realistically: If two whip candidates each find one ally who refuses to vote for the speaker unless their buddy is named whip, there's no speaker. The outgroup homogenity that fuels the myth of GOP uniformity is about to get a real asskicking if they do manage to scrape a house majority.
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# ¿ Nov 10, 2022 16:01 |
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davecrazy posted:If the freedom caucus nutjobs take over de-facto (or actual) control of the house leadership won't that just allow for defections for R's in swing districts or Rs in D+ districts? I'd actually need to think on that more. A 1:1 trade of conservative house member for lifetime conservative judge is very bad for Dems in a vacuum, but the merits may change when it means flipping the House.
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# ¿ Nov 10, 2022 16:30 |
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Herstory Begins Now posted:The big difference is that for the first time in as long as I can remember there's a meaningful push for Rs to move towards the center (or at least not openly wage war on women and democracy). The brinksmanship calculus was different when the question was just 'right or even more right?' There's been nothing to indicate to me that the party has even started to shift towards "we'll let Democrats get a thing if it means we'll get ten bigger things". Until that happens, I don't see a change in brinksmanship culture.
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# ¿ Nov 10, 2022 17:12 |
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An unlisted video that has nothing to do with Biden or Politics?
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# ¿ Nov 10, 2022 17:41 |
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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:which is why the republican investigation is all about all the sad weird sex stuff, because anyone who thinks the Republican Party is going to go to war with the failson-industrial complex has another thing coming. the do-nothing job for family members is practically the only benefit you get for having an elected office these days, and if the Democrats are willing to launch an impeachment over someone over trying to mess with it imagine the response Republicans would have. House GOP pushes forward with Hunter Biden probe despite thin majority(11/19/22) quote:Rep. James Comer, incoming chairman of the House Oversight Committee, said there are "troubling questions" of the utmost importance about Hunter Biden's business dealings and one of the president's brothers, James Biden, that require deeper investigation Jim Jordan requests documents from Pompeo regarding Hunter Biden, Burisma (5/14/20) quote:Jordan, who was one of President Trump’s staunchest defenders during the House impeachment hearings, requested unredacted documents from the State Department on Thursday regarding former Vice President Joe Biden’s son Hunter Biden’s role in Burisma Holdings, a “notoriously corrupt” Ukrainian state-run oil company. Republicans have won the House. Now, they're promising to investigate the Bidens(11/17/22) quote:In a press conference on Thursday, Comer accused the Biden family of defrauding the United States, tax evasion, violating several laws and money laundering, among other accusations. Rep. Jim Jordan, the top Republican on the House Oversight Committee, and CNN's Jake Tapper got into a contentious exchange Sunday after the lawmaker made false and misleading claims about the unfolding Ukraine drama that has led to an impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump.(9/30/19) quote:"The vice president's son gets paid $50,000 a month and gets hired by a company in an industry he has no experience in and oh that's fine?" Jordan says, referring to Hunter Biden serving on the board of a Ukrainian natural gas company. "Try taking that message to the American people ... When they see the vice president's son getting paid $50,000 a month in a field, in an industry he has no experience in ... And then when the company that's paying that money is under investigation, guess what? Daddy comes running to the rescue. The vice president of the United States comes running in and says, 'Fire that prosecutor.' " Jim Jordan asks Christopher Wray whether FBI is investigating Hunter Biden(9/24/20) quote:Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio, the ranking member on the House Judiciary Committee, told Wray in a two-page letter that Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa and Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin had “released an explosive report detailing misconduct and potential criminal activity during the Obama-Biden Administration” and asked “what investigative steps — if any — the Federal Bureau of Investigation has taken in response to the information in this report.” The congressman contended that the report “shows that the FBI has been aware of some alleged misconduct for years” and “detailed widespread concern within the Obama-Biden Administration about Hunter Biden’s role on the board of Burisma Holdings.”
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# ¿ Nov 20, 2022 20:40 |
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https://twitter.com/emptywheel/status/1594718383479873536 The establishment wing of the GOP leaning on Politico here to help set the tone for internal discussions. In addition to being additional evidence of Republican desires to investigate the corruption side of Hunter Biden rumors, it shows further That said, it's surprisingly early for them to be pushing Tiger Beat to calm down the Freedom Caucus. Worth watching.
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# ¿ Nov 21, 2022 16:51 |
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This is a week old but I hadn't seen it mentioned and found it interesting. The ability to run for office while holding another office leads to some real ratfucky situations from time to time. Brian Kemp's voter roll purges and last minute investigation into the Dem attempt to hack Georgia's election as Secretary of State running for Governor are pretty well known, but the AG->higher office pipeline leads to some "I AM the law" behavior too. As was the case with Josh Hawley, the Missouri Senator and former AG. In a 19 page ruling, a Missouri judge agreed with the DSCC that Hawley's Attorney General's Office knowingly and purposefully violated the state's sunshine law during his 2018 campaign, aiming to hide embarassing and potentially illegal actions from his opponents. The only part of this more tragicomic than the relief (the statutory maximum of $12,000 in fines) is the Attorney General Office's contention that they were correct to withhold the documents because they were covered by a litigation exception. Specifically, that the DSCC was suing over a different sunshine failure at the time of their request and, additionally, that the withheld documents could one day be at the center of a lawsuit (a nice bit of self-fulfillery, I must admit). To make sure this is clear, the AGO was arguing (1) Suing them for failing to turn over documents means they are permitted to deny all requests until the first case is complete, without recourse and (2) That if you might sue because you didn't receive documents, they're correct in withholding documents.
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# ¿ Nov 22, 2022 03:56 |
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So, here we are with the next round of Trump's legal media strategy: https://twitter.com/emptywheel/status/1595103852235485185 Prior to getting slapped down by the 11th today, he's throwing out chaff for friendly outlets and to distract from the day's action (in his case and others). Prebutting these quickly: The overbroadness argument falls into the overall case his lawyers have been making that he was served with a general warrant (briefly: grabbing whatever we can and figuring out the crime later), which is a nono. The reality and the court's view is best summed up as "you can have impermissibly broad language if it's controlled by narrower language elsewhere in the warrant" (which is unquestionably the case here). Simplest terms: Justice got a warrant saying they can 'seize everything related to the following criteria' and Trump's lawyers are arguing 'seize everything' are the only words the judges should read. The argument about "additional documents in the same box as a potentially responsive document" is similarly horseshit. How, where, with what, by whom, and for whom the documents were stored is at the center of the case. The "additional documents" (and golf shirts, passports, annotated newspaper clippings, etc) are fundamental for the case. Taking it to its most absurd for clarity: Assume Trump has a golf shirt embroidered with "MBS tournament partner and pregame private document review participant", that he was photographed wearing while meeting MBS on a day that intelligence confirms the Saudi government learned classified information. Further assume this was found in a box with a distinctive folder of documents containing that same classified information. Further assume that there's a photograph in the same box of Trump holding the distinctive folder and shaking hands with MBS, autographed by MBS with the message "very informative, thank you!". Trump's argument is that the shirt and photograph are not responsive to the warrant and his rights have been violated if the government seizes or records the photo and shirt.
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# ¿ Nov 22, 2022 19:09 |
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Relatedly, thread for the aforementioned hearing. https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1595130895841005569 Klasfeld is at least newsnation adjacent but tends to be good (from a straightforward "here's what was said" perspective) inspite of that. Happy to replace if someone has a better hearingswatcher! ETA: To avoid TVIV'ing a slowmoving thread, the "highlights" from Trump's very bad no good day in court (general reminder: that this is in court at all and the status quo is obstruction is an incalculable victory for Trump)- Grant (and the less vocal Brasher) are both Trump nominees, Pryor is a Dubya judge. https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1595134754516766720 https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1595135225109315584 https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1595136572789522433 Paracaidas fucked around with this message at 21:04 on Nov 22, 2022 |
# ¿ Nov 22, 2022 20:09 |
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In other very bad day for Trump in court news, Daily Beast had a writer in New York for Trump Org fraud lawsuit. The judge was... prickly. The TO lawyer was worse. https://twitter.com/Jose_Pagliery/status/1595071321737924608 https://twitter.com/Jose_Pagliery/status/1595072382427070464 https://twitter.com/Jose_Pagliery/status/1595073181890527234 https://twitter.com/Jose_Pagliery/status/1595076212443197442 https://twitter.com/Jose_Pagliery/status/1595084710467846144 This trial being wrapped in 2023, more than anything (including jail time), could have a major impact on Trump's willingness to run. Absent this and the Foundation, it's much more challenging to actually profit from another ride on the campaign carousel.
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# ¿ Nov 22, 2022 21:57 |
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The FTX debacle continues to demonstrate that crypto is a tepid rewarming of old scams https://twitter.com/ddayen/status/1595418930104786944 https://twitter.com/ddayen/status/1595422113208406016 Incoming House Majority Whip and Minnesotan drunk driving enthusiast Tom Emmer led the charge both with the letter and donation reciepts: quote:More consequentially, Emmer was the head of the National Republican Congressional Committee, the campaign arm for House Republicans, this year. The NRCC’s associated super PAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund, received $2.75 million from FTX in the 2022 cycle; $2 million from Salame in late September, and $750,000 from the company’s political action committee. quote:Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL) said through a spokesperson that the congressman was not attempting to influence ongoing investigations at the SEC, and did not exchange any communications with FTX. He was merely concerned with the SEC’s procedure and guidance with crypto firms, which some have described as “regulation by enforcement.” Donalds was not one of the members who received donations from FTX. Lets check the March letter to see if anyone would interpret it as influencing ongoing investigations: quote:We have questions regarding the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (the Commission) utilization of Division of Enforcement and Division of Examination authorities to obtain information related to cryptocurrency and blockchain firms. Those authorities are better suited to the SEC’s divisions charged with seeking public commentary as part of the rulemaking process. In case you needed further clarity on if this was intended to halt investigations, we have the author's own statements: quote:Emmer made clear in his March Twitter thread that the letter was based on complaints from crypto firms, and that his intent was to stop the SEC from making these inquiries. “Crypto startups must not be weighed down by extra-jurisdictional and burdensome reporting requirements,” Emmer wrote. “We will ensure our regulators do not kill American innovation and opportunities.” If this sounds a bit familiar to you, it would for John McCain too: quote:THE UNORTHODOX LETTER IS ANALOGOUS to the 1987 “Keating Five” scandal. Then, five senators (including a young Arizona Republican named John McCain) pressured the Federal Home Loan Bank Board (FHLBB) into shutting down an investigation into Lincoln Savings and Loan and its chair Charles Keating Jr. Keating was a donor to all five senators, giving $1.3 million over the years. quote:But the catastrophe at FTX hasn’t stopped Emmer from continuing to boost crypto. At an event with the crypto trade group the Blockchain Association just last week, Emmer told the assembled crypto honchos, “You are here to stay,” and that nobody should “rush in and put a huge wet blanket of regulation atop this industry just because something didn’t go right.” quote:In March, the Blockchain Association applauded the bipartisan letter, saying that “champions” like Emmer were making America “a crypto innovation leader.” The Blockchain Association’s director of government affairs, Ron Hammond, was previously the financial services policy lead for Rep. Davidson, one of the letter’s signatories. Don't worry though, the top Congresscritters are going to get to the bottom of this: quote:The House Financial Services Committee has announced hearings during the lame-duck session into the FTX collapse. Emmer, Torres, Gottheimer, Auchincloss, Davidson, and Budd are all members of that committee. Unfortunately, they won’t be the ones forced to answer the questions.
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# ¿ Nov 23, 2022 16:17 |
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Didn't see this discussed yesterday, but further administrative action: https://twitter.com/chopracfpb/status/1595090573714935811 Calling this out in particular because the divided legislature is only going to increase the importance of proactive and substantive actions from the various appendages of the executive branch. Going back to Perez and overtime classification at Labor in the waning days of the Obama admin, more robust rulemaking and expansive interpretations of scope and authority has been becoming more common. It'll be essential this continue to accelerate over the next few years. The Executive Action Tracker from The American Prospect grew out of their day one agenda project and is still the best, most comprehensive resource I've seen on the things the Biden administration can (arguably) do without congress... if anyone would like to better understand that potential universe as we continue careening toward gridlock. I disagree with some of the assessments on if the proposed actions are within the administration's authority, but I've not found any that are objectively wrong.
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# ¿ Nov 23, 2022 18:23 |
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Found this one interesting and it runs a bit counterintuitive for me: https://twitter.com/arindube/status/1595606927303925760 (As a correction, the Y axis should read "cumulative" and not "annualized") Overall, wage growth is below inflation for most Americans since the start of the pandemic. The ones who've done best (as measured by wage growth v CPI*) have been those on the lower end of the income spectrum. A good point to pull out if you find yourself around the sort of relatives and friends this weekend who were trying to end lockdowns and masking in May 2020 "for the sake of the hourly workers!" Dube, for context, is a professor at the University of Massachusetts and one of the world's foremost experts in labor/wage economics - particularly regarding minimum wage effects. *This is a narrow measure that obviously does not account for the increasing value and utility of nonwage compensation the higher one goes up the income ladder and should not be used to for the rich
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# ¿ Nov 24, 2022 15:17 |
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Rigel posted:Edge cases like the Dems actually playing kingmaker with a compromise candidate are fun to talk about for political nerds like us even though it is hilariously unlikely. Most likely, I think, is the idiot brigade tanking McCarthy's bid as a meaningless trophy and getting someone indistinguishable they could claim was "their pick" instead of foisted upon them by The Establishment. So basically the same horseshit Schrader (get hosed, rear end in a top hat) and company tried and failed to pull with Tim Ryan.
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# ¿ Nov 24, 2022 16:25 |
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:DNC just announced that they will vote on the new primary schedule this weekend. https://twitter.com/michaelscherer/status/1598467213782142976 Paradoxically, I think that Bernie Would Have Won in 2020 under Biden's proposal (I'm iffier on 2016). A field winnowed by NH and IA is going to be a field that hands SC and a good chunk of Super Tuesday to any candidate that gives a gently caress by a wide margin... as we saw in both 16 and 20. This schedule would have seen Biden more contested in the states that he used to coast to an easy victory. For instance, Biden's 63-17 win in Alabama on Super Tuesday earned him 44 delegates, 1 fewer than Bernie pulled from Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire combined. By contrast, Bernie's widest margin in an super-tuesday-or-earlier contest was his 51-22 victory in Vermont. In an ideal world, this kills the Petes and Amys and Steyers and even Warrens (see also: the whitest crowd ever brought to an HBCU) before the first contest happens and makes building a diverse coalition a prerequisite for any candidate to survive to Super Tuesday. The risk is that this inverts the dynamic, with South Carolina and Georgia split between 4 and 5 candidates, while a more.... northern-focused ... candidate cleans up New Hampshire and swaths of Michigan with few challengers above the viability threshold.
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# ¿ Dec 2, 2022 02:15 |
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Oracle posted:Do you think a party that can't even carry their own state should be first to decide the candidate for the majority of the country? Its not even a swing state. Edgar Allen Ho posted:Do you think South Carolina dems are the ones voting for republicans in the general? There's really no need to fight here, I'm sure we can come to an arrangement. Like South Carolina can remain an early state but they and similarly historically Republican states can only keep a bit over half their delegates. We could call it the bit over half compromise and apply it to South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, and, well, I'm sure a few other states. Hell, even Georgia should miss out on delegates for consistently electing GOP governors under this system.
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# ¿ Dec 2, 2022 23:37 |
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Epic High Five posted:With all 3 happening at once I think the takeaway is more that nothing will be as important as Iowa used to be and that's fine by me. I've not seen that anywhere? Everything I've seen matches LT's: Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:The 2024 changes they approved: Adding another early state, and having a geographically large trio, is interesting. Iowa and New Hampshire could be done fairly easily without requiring huge organization or expense. The same likely doesn't hold true now, particularly in Michigan and Georgia (and NV, to an extent). That likely thwarts halfassed runs like Pete and Amy ("we tried and got our names out there, and could have spooled up if we did well and money flowed in"), but is also another barrier for anyone succeeding if they don't enter with infrastructure and deep pockets and the primaries already have plenty of those.
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# ¿ Dec 2, 2022 23:55 |
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Epic High Five posted:Oh I read that wrong, I thought the 2nd and 3rd took place at the same time on the same day, but later. My bad. I reinstate my belief that it's bad because the first one should be one that they'll ever win and isn't, for example, the most conservative state in the country, but I don't live in much fear of Dem state parties. As to the rest, I'm pretty ambivalent about the overall partisanship of the early states in a primary, outside of situations where there's reason to believe the state redness is in part due to active state party misconduct (Alabama Dems are as gently caress) or that the redness reflects an extremely unrepresentative ideology of the voters (exit polls in 2016 in West Virginia showing the preferred November candidate of Sanders voters being Trump. Which, to restate, was the majority of people who voted for Bernie in the Dem primary saying that they would vote Trump in November even if Bernie was the Dem candidate. Contrary to idiot lib harrumphing, that's obviously miles out of step with Bernie voters nationwide). What I did want to see solved by reordering the early states is a dynamic that's often been discussed in (often selfseving) postmortems from Black candidates: South Carolina won't go for a Black candidate until they've proven viability elsewhere- and that's meant Iowa and New Hampshire lately. It's probably not too cynical to see that dynamic as a feature and not a bug to the decisionmakers who bumped South Carolina up at the time, a way to performatively take action without risking anything actually changing. For what it's worth, in the one actual test of the theory, Obama did see a 20ish point jump in polls following Iowa. Reevaluating the first 5 every cycle will allow for quicker resolution of unintended (or unintended) consequences of reordering, but I fear may also leave the early primaries lurching unpredictably. Which isn't that big a cost compared to status quo, and will avoid some of the corruption that's built up over time in Iowa. Ideally, this will get potential candidates engaging in midterm and offcycle party building in a wider variety states, as we've seen in Iowa.
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# ¿ Dec 3, 2022 00:54 |
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# ¿ May 10, 2024 20:54 |
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funkymonks posted:I’m a NH resident and I think it’s a good idea to adjust some of this stuff to have less white states go sooner but then I saw the DNC handed the first 2024 primary to SC instead of a more progressive state so gently caress them. California, NY, and NJ have more diverse populations than SC but no we gotta have the state that saved Biden go first. NYT's post-concession reporting matches reporting leading in to the primary: The Sanders campaign didn't care about South Carolina performance and felt that their resources were better spent elsewhere. quote:There were also serious operational mistakes: In South Carolina, the campaign effectively deputized a former Ohio state senator and loyal surrogate, Nina Turner, to direct strategy, rather than empowering a political strategist to run the pivotal early state. quote:The pollster, Ben Tulchin, in a meeting with campaign aides, recommended a new offensive to influence older black voters, according to three people briefed on his presentation. The data showed two clear vulnerabilities for Mr. Biden: his past support for overhauling Social Security, and his authorship of a punitive criminal justice law in the 1990s. Stop me if you've heard this before: We're going to put her in charge of a task we feel is impossible and deny her the support and resources she says she needs because it's actually not important to our strategy at all. The story also reproduces a memo arguing that their internal polling showing a 4% loss was far more accurate than the public polling that accurately predicted the shellacking... one of a few listed examples of the campaign being high on its own supply. The campaign strategy was that they'd have no chance with older black voters and that was fine because they didn't need them to win. What they apparently(?) failed to recognize is that the rest of the field would see the obvious: There was no path to victory if nobody was splitting delegates in South Carolina and a huge chunk of Super Tuesday, and none of their asses were anywhere near viability in those states. To reiterate from an earlier post on this: Bernie received 4 more delegates from Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada combined than Biden did from Alabama on Super Tuesday. In practice, this is the furthest thing from putting their thumb on the scales for centrists--- it takes what has spent the past 2 cycles as a centrist gimmie and carves it up to a much wider field. Still, this is the DNC, so I can't dismiss the idea they're trying to rig it and are too dumb to realize it'll have the opposite effect... Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Is the SC Democratic primary electorate actually more centrist than a different equivalent state? It's more that they are more favorable to candidates popular with black voters (which are usually not the same as the candidates popular with the white liberal activist base, so it can lead to more centrist results), but not necessarily more centrist ideologically. I'm going to quote an informative C-SPAM post here because I can't be arsed to recreate the analysis: galenanorth posted:https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/primaries-caucuses/entrance-and-exit-polls Overall it's mostly a trio of arguments that get my hackles up here and the thread has seen a version of all 3 in the past week:
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# ¿ Dec 5, 2022 22:41 |