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I was excited to see what the previous thread had done to get locked. I am Jack's sense of disappointment
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Oct 11, 2022 21:59
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Bij dezen stel ik voor om de kolonisatie van de Oekraïne-draad voort te zetten in naam van alle broedervolkeren van de Lage Landen!
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Oct 11, 2022 22:00
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spankmeister posted:I do believe the Baltic countries have their energy grids connected to Russia, but they're working on severing those links. It’s a bit more technical than that. Baltics did stop using Russian electricity half a year ago, but the networks themselves are connected to BRELL, and the network synchronisation (“current frequency”) is maintained within the context of the BRELL, rather than that of the national grids, the Baltic meta-grid, or the Nordpool (which is the sole electricity source for the time being). For Latvia specifically, the scheduled disconnection from BRELL is set for 2025, but we anticipate Russia possibly disconnecting us by force, and supposedly have the capacity to withstand that to some extent.
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Oct 11, 2022 22:03
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Elyv posted:Perun is great. he's got some excellent videos about driving back an invasion of mind controlling extraterrestrials and their collaborators, and also he did a couple about Terra Invicta (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 11, 2022 22:04
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Mr. Apollo posted:Business Insider is reporting that Musk spoke with Putin before posting those polls. However. Musk denies he spoke directly with Putin. The mood with Russian journalists I follow is that this is a “cool story”.
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Oct 11, 2022 22:04
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Kavros posted:This war has already been fascinatingly ground-based with relatively few air assets, and I'm assuming this will keep the trend strong for at least one side, The reason for that is that Ukraine has good heavy AA, which greatly limits the freedom of action of the VKS. The problem with this is that they don't have infinite missiles for their S-300 systems, and there is no substantial supply of them outside Russia. This means that eventually they will have to move to western AA systems. It's the same with artillery. It's not that 155mm guns are that much better than the ones Ukraine already has (they are better, but a well-maintained soviet surplus 152mm gun with good ammo is close enough), but that there is simply not enough ammo supplies or production for Soviet heavy calibers outside Russia and China, so eventually the entire Ukrainian army needs to switch over to NATO calibers. Although on that front Russia is apparently helping supply Ukraine by leaving behind so much ammo when they rout.
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Oct 11, 2022 22:07
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Jihad Joe posted:I was excited to see what the previous thread had done to get locked. I am Jack's sense of disappointment I had the OP mostly ready and just wanted to wait until page 2023 to reboot it and clean things up, since I’m creatively bankrupt about coming up with a new title.
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Oct 11, 2022 22:07
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cinci zoo sniper posted:The mood with Russian journalists I follow is that this is a “cool story”. "Cool story" how? That's a phrase that can have five or six contradictory meanings.
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Oct 11, 2022 22:07
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Tuna-Fish posted:The reason for that is that Ukraine has good heavy AA, which greatly limits the freedom of action of the VKS. The problem with this is that they don't have infinite missiles for their S-300 systems, and there is no substantial supply of them outside Russia. This means that eventually they will have to move to western AA systems. Some systems like NASMS and Iris-T are on the way, but no indication about the Patriot which would be an actual replacement in terms of range and capability. Vincent Van Goatse posted:"Cool story" how? That's a phrase that can have five or six contradictory meanings.  motion but in any case, somehow Musky picked up and is parroting their propaganda line about "Kruschev's mistake" and other nonsense 1:1.
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Oct 11, 2022 22:15
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:"Cool story" how? That's a phrase that can have five or six contradictory meanings. As in an improbable thing that totally happened.
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Oct 11, 2022 22:18
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Tuna-Fish posted:It's the same with artillery. It's not that 155mm guns are that much better than the ones Ukraine already has (they are better, but a well-maintained soviet surplus 152mm gun with good ammo is close enough), but that there is simply not enough ammo supplies or production for Soviet heavy calibers outside Russia and China, so eventually the entire Ukrainian army needs to switch over to NATO calibers. Although on that front Russia is apparently helping supply Ukraine by leaving behind so much ammo when they rout.
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Oct 11, 2022 22:20
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cinci zoo sniper posted:It’s a bit more technical than that. Baltics did stop using Russian electricity half a year ago, but the networks themselves are connected to BRELL, and the network synchronisation (“current frequency”) is maintained within the context of the BRELL, rather than that of the national grids, the Baltic meta-grid, or the Nordpool (which is the sole electricity source for the time being). For Latvia specifically, the scheduled disconnection from BRELL is set for 2025, but we anticipate Russia possibly disconnecting us by force, and supposedly have the capacity to withstand that to some extent. Ah interesting! Yeah frequency is hugely important, a number of years ago there was a dispute between Serbia and Kosovo (go figure) which destabilized the entire European energy grid, and the resulting frequency drop caused railway clocks to run slow and all kinds of issues.
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Oct 11, 2022 22:29
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In the old thread somone - I think the Belgian guy with the painted avatar, you know who you are - posted something that I wanted to chime in on. I was - and to a large degree still am - very disillusioned with how our societies are run. So, before the 2022 invasion, I did not at all expect that so many countries would go to lengths greater than some weak diplomatic tutting. I was so jaded that had very little doubt that this would be just another time a dictator would get away with his crimes, because other world leaders wouldn't want to bother. Just like Hitler, Putin seemed to have projected his own cynical world view on other nations and wrongly concluded that they were unable or unwiling to stand their ground. The fact that there seems to be - in what we can loosely call the 'Western" world - so much consensus that Putin must be stopped makes me hopeful for the future. It gives me hope that when world leaders make promises, they may on occassion actually mean it. The Russian state is repeatedly falling on its face because all its actors view each other as either gangsters prison bitches, and accordingly no one can trust one another. By contrast, the countries opposing Russia seem to be cooperating and meeting one another in good faith. It is beyond absurd to even try to compare how much Ukrainians trust one another and their institutions with how much Russians do. Some institutions in the West are working and not just some PR operation from the last century, and that benefits all the people they represent. If these institutions work, it gives me some hope that we can build other institutions as well - institutions that can build peace, offer safety, and uplift people out of poverty. I still feel a vague dread about the future, but I no longer feel that doom is completely inevitable.
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Oct 11, 2022 22:40
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Russia apparently pulled most s300s from around St Petersburg, so maybe not too many spares floating around.
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Oct 11, 2022 23:11
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Phlegmish posted:It's slowed down a bit recently, but yeah, their resilience has been impressive. A question to those more knowledgeable about this conflict and military history/doctrine than I: Should we expect to see more rapid progress, or no? My understanding is that the recent recapture of territory was able to happen because cities function as strongpoints - they are both the best terrain in which to make a defense, as well as being the most valuable targets to hold. Much of the terrain outside of the cities is rolling plains, which seems both harder to defend as well as less important strategically. But for example if (hopefully when) the Ukrainian Army liberates Kherson, is it reasonable to expect much of the territory between there and Melitopol to also be liberated, at least up til a natural barrier like a river? Or is a rapid offensive like this unlikely to be repeated?
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Oct 11, 2022 23:12
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aniviron posted:A question to those more knowledgeable about this conflict and military history/doctrine than I: Should we expect to see more rapid progress, or no? My understanding is that the recent recapture of territory was able to happen because cities function as strongpoints - they are both the best terrain in which to make a defense, as well as being the most valuable targets to hold. Much of the terrain outside of the cities is rolling plains, which seems both harder to defend as well as less important strategically. But for example if (hopefully when) the Ukrainian Army liberates Kherson, is it reasonable to expect much of the territory between there and Melitopol to also be liberated, at least up til a natural barrier like a river? Or is a rapid offensive like this unlikely to be repeated? The short answer is we don't know. The long answer is, as long as Russia doesn't fix its problems, it will keep losing territory. They seem to be having difficulty defending over such a long frontline, and Ukrainian MO so far was to avoid the defended strongpoints, move around them, watch the Russians flee the impending pocket and mop up. You can theoretically keep doing this to strongpoints ad infinitum until the Russians get more people that can actually defend across the entire front, or decide to focus on a smaller territory to hold so their troops they actually do have, don't get circumvented. (Or until Ukraine runs out of vehicles or supplies, I guess, but in between the captured equipment and Western aid I think they have a few more pushes left in them.)
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Oct 11, 2022 23:20
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Alchenar posted:Disgusting absence of https://twitter.com/LawDavF on the twitter recommendation list MegaZeroX posted:I would like adding Perun there, who has probably some of the best YouTube commentary it is, IMO. Atreiden posted:Can second Perun for weekly good long videos mainly about the war in Ukraine Added as I recognise all of those, despite still haven’t watched a single video of Perun.
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Oct 11, 2022 23:21
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aniviron posted:A question to those more knowledgeable about this conflict and military history/doctrine than I: Should we expect to see more rapid progress, or no? My understanding is that the recent recapture of territory was able to happen because cities function as strongpoints - they are both the best terrain in which to make a defense, as well as being the most valuable targets to hold. Much of the terrain outside of the cities is rolling plains, which seems both harder to defend as well as less important strategically. But for example if (hopefully when) the Ukrainian Army liberates Kherson, is it reasonable to expect much of the territory between there and Melitopol to also be liberated, at least up til a natural barrier like a river? Or is a rapid offensive like this unlikely to be repeated? Over the last 2 months Ukraine has conducted major offenses, taken large chunks of territory, then consolidated their gains for a week or so before launching the next major offensive. They've been able to keep pressing like this because Russia's already lost a substantial amount of men/equipment/ammo over the last 8 months and has apparently not been able to properly replace these losses. Probably due to a combination of corruption and sanctions. So as long as NATO keeps equipping, training and bankrolling Ukraine, there's no reason for them to stop advancing. At least until winter properly kicks in, which will probably slow things down. We'll see if it changes Ukraine's pace or if they decide to stop altogether for the season. But with the current round of escalation, it's also possible that things can change in ways no one has seen yet. Getting better SAMs and longer range missiles (SAMs on the way, longer range missiles are being seriously discussed in response to yesterday's attacks) could allow Ukraine to create new opportunities. Orthanc6 fucked around with this message at 23:29 on Oct 11, 2022 |
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Oct 11, 2022 23:22
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Added as I recognise all of those, despite still haven’t watched a single video of Perun. Perun is god of thunder is slavic pagan pantheon, is it the same thing in Baltic mythology?
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Oct 11, 2022 23:29
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Sekenr posted:Perun is god of thunder is slavic pagan pantheon, is it the same thing in Baltic mythology? Sure is, Pērkons in Latvia and Perkūnas in Lithuania, both words literally meaning “thunder” in our modern vocabulary. Estonians have similar, Pikker, but their mythology generally speaking is a bit detached from Latvia and Lithuania.
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Oct 11, 2022 23:33
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Jihad Joe posted:I was excited to see what the previous thread had done to get locked. I am Jack's sense of disappointment Same, same. But the new thread is a lot more organized and clean. Congrats to Cinci for the great work.
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Oct 11, 2022 23:39
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Orthanc6 posted:Over the last 2 months Ukraine has conducted major offenses, taken large chunks of territory, then consolidated their gains for a week or so before launching the next major offensive. They've been able to keep pressing like this because Russia's already lost a substantial amount of men/equipment/ammo over the last 8 months and has apparently not been able to properly replace these losses. Probably due to a combination of corruption and sanctions. I would really only classify the Izyum operation as a (the only) major offensive that has gone well. Most of the work done on the Oskil front since then has been far more piecemeal and opportunistic in nature seemingly probing repeatedly as the Russians fall back rather than a planned event. Similarly, in Kherson, the territory liberated was more of a function where the Russians were defeated locally in one spot and didn't have sufficient reserves left to protect the territory they had so they pulled back to shorter lines closer to their few remaining crossings over the Dnipro rather than risk having their units cut off. Information remains scant in Kherson and we don't even really know where the front line is between Dudchany and Mylove. This is in stark contrast to Izyum where the Ukrainians clearly breached a large section of the front line in force, defeated whatever reserves the Russians had in the area and proceeded to evict the Russians forcefully from Izyum despite their best efforts to retain the territory.
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Oct 11, 2022 23:44
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Here's to another eight months of dunking on Russia from afar with posts as Ukraine dunks on Russia with HIMARS.
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Oct 11, 2022 23:55
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Sure is, Pērkons in Latvia and Perkūnas in Lithuania, both words literally meaning “thunder” in our modern vocabulary. Estonians have similar, Pikker, but their mythology generally speaking is a bit detached from Latvia and Lithuania. Same thing as Norse/Germanic Thor/Tor/Donner really, all of those just mean thunder or are derived from the word for thunder.
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Oct 11, 2022 23:55
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Moon Slayer posted:Here's to another eight months of dunking on Russia from afar with posts as Ukraine dunks on Russia with HIMARS. It is my absolute sincerest wish that it doesn't have to take that long and the Russians capitulate much sooner.
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Oct 12, 2022 00:02
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Moon Slayer posted:Here's to another eight months of dunking on Russia from afar with posts as Ukraine dunks on Russia with HIMARS. I’d prefer Russia to gently caress off much sooner, but I’d also prefer a lot of other things that have limited indications of their immediacy.
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Oct 12, 2022 00:02
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Sociopathy to view this war as anything good
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Oct 12, 2022 00:08
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https://twitter.com/dawid_92pl/status/1579974038092677121
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Oct 12, 2022 00:23
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FishBulbia posted:Sociopathy to view this war as anything good Surely; I think that some people are just beginning to think they see a light at the end of the tunnel, as opposed to nothing but the prospect of continued unrelenting horror that it had been for so many months. But personally I think that as bad as Russia’s recent losses have been, it’s still way, way too early to think the end is in sight.
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Oct 12, 2022 01:07
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BTW, the previous thread has been moved to the Goodmine, thanks to Cinci for doing that! It will now be preserved as well as be readable to unregistered users, for the sake of historical preservation and records (since SA is being archived by the Library of Congress). You can find the Goodmined old thread here: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3993516 Also, just curious - someone counter-toxxed me and I was just wondering if they ever paid up; I don't remember, but reviewing the previous OP had my Toxx and nurmie's countertoxx in it, so that's why I'm wondering  nurmie posted:i propose the following conditions for my counter- HonorableTB fucked around with this message at 01:22 on Oct 12, 2022 |
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Oct 12, 2022 01:19
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to HonorableTB:
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Sucrose posted:Surely; I think that some people are just beginning to think they see a light at the end of the tunnel, as opposed to nothing but the prospect of continued unrelenting horror that it had been for so many months. But personally I think that as bad as Russia’s recent losses have been, it’s still way, way too early to think the end is in sight. There is a very long road ahead, barring unforeseeable changes. Ukraine's made surprising progress but if we look at what they've taken back this fall compared to what's left to take back, even from the February borders, yeah that's a lot of ground to reclaim. But this war is a man with a gun breaking into a home and starting to kill family members. Both because he wants the house, and because he has a vendetta against the family. Meeting violence with violence is the last and worst option, but not stopping Putin here is guaranteed to produce more wars. So I'm glad that Russia is not finding success, and I'm glad a whole bunch of nations are doing what they can to help Ukraine survive. I wish Russia's war criminals could be dealt with in court, but that is never going to happen, so the very tarnished silver lining is that at least some of them are being stopped from their war-criming by Ukraine's army.
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Oct 12, 2022 01:30
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HonorableTB posted:BTW, the previous thread has been moved to the Goodmine, thanks to Cinci for doing that! It will now be preserved as well as be readable to unregistered users, for the sake of historical preservation and records (since SA is being archived by the Library of Congress). You can find the Goodmined old thread here: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3993516 They did. We had an internal conversation at the time, and the decision was that D&D's preferred toxx redemption story is a charitable donation and admitting that you're wrong. nurmie posted:welp, i do feel like i need a break from All This anyway tbh nurmie posted:Seconding the paypal/bank details request. Can't promise much, but hopefully it'll be enough to cover the fuel costs at least. nurmie posted:Donated a little something a bit earlier, please feel free to redistribute/pass on to refugees as you see fit if it's not needed anymore to cover food/gas.
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Oct 12, 2022 01:42
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cinci zoo sniper posted:They did. We had an internal conversation at the time, and the decision was that D&D's preferred toxx redemption story is a charitable donation and admitting that you're wrong. Thanks! It's been a while so I couldn't remember
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Oct 12, 2022 01:55
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Orthanc6 posted:There is a very long road ahead, barring unforeseeable changes. Ukraine's made surprising progress but if we look at what they've taken back this fall compared to what's left to take back, even from the February borders, yeah that's a lot of ground to reclaim. For this war to end quickly there would have to be some sort seismic shift in the political landscape in Russia. Putin will be happy enough to throw bodies into the meat grinder as long as it keeps his position safe.
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Oct 12, 2022 03:40
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Budzilla posted:For this war to end quickly there would have to be some sort seismic shift in the political landscape in Russia. Putin will be happy enough to throw bodies into the meat grinder as long as it keeps his position safe. He is probably throwing bodies into the meat grinder because his position is now getting unsafe.
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Oct 12, 2022 03:50
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While the thread is restarting just wanted to say thanks to everyone who posts such clear info in here. The fairly strict rules that the thread is run under means that most content is super relevant and interesting, and while I just lurk because I don't have anything to add, checking in here for the latest news is a daily routine for me.
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Oct 12, 2022 04:10
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quote:1/ The independent Russian media outlet Verstka ("Layout") What is the state of Independent Russian media? To be honest, I thought there wasn't really any left.
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Oct 12, 2022 04:17
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Moon Slayer posted:Here's to another eight months of dunking on Russia from afar with posts as Ukraine dunks on Russia with HIMARS. Eight more months of this is not something to wish for.
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Oct 12, 2022 04:25
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https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1579883965879848960 Much of this has been mentioned already in the thread, but the piece does tie it all into a cogent narrative. Small White Dragon posted:What is the state of Independent Russian media? To be honest, I thought there wasn't really any left. A lot of it is in exile, but publications that stay niche and avoid speaking of Putin or his favourites directly can make by locally as well. For those who stayed, a major issue is keeping the lights on, as the financial channels they can access are restricted and closely monitored. Edit: Someone did ask for forecasts on the economic impact of the mobilisation a couple of days ago. https://twitter.com/abarbashin/status/1579874299405832192 https://ridl.io/the-partial-mobilisation-of-russian-smes/ cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 04:36 on Oct 12, 2022 |
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Oct 12, 2022 04:33
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