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LanceHunter posted:I've heard some compelling arguments for the Fed offering checking and savings accounts (in particular, that they then have a more direct lever for cooling demand by just increasing the interest rates in those accounts, causing more people to want to spend less and save more). One big issue with that is trying to find a way to make this available without causing massive runs on all the other banks as people pulled their money and put it into the new Fed accounts. I'm in favor of it causing massive runs on all the other banks.  Alternatively, maybe the other banks could do something innovative to keep people banking with them, like maybe not offering insultingly-low savings interest rates or trying to charge you for the privilege of talking to a teller. Maybe bring back lollipops for children.
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Mar 17, 2023 21:05
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I just want them to sort their poo poo out pronto over there, because part of my annual bonus is in RSUs based on the Swiss stock market, and they're just doing loving dandy right now, let's say. Fix your poo poo long enough for me to cash out my bonus and then you can crash all you like. (yeah yeah, world's smallest violin and all that)
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Mar 19, 2023 19:40
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Hadlock posted:So hypothetically if you were buying a house this month, would you choose to rate lock today at 6.25% or wait and see what the fed does tomorrow Rate lock. Related: A big positive about current rates is that absolutely nobody is sending me refinancing spam anymore.
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Mar 21, 2023 21:19
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Hadlock posted:Hypothetically a 5/1 arm is 6.50 and 7/1 is 6.35, whereas 30 year is 6.675, the spread on total monthly payment is about 4.7% When I said rate lock, I meant "lock in the rate on your 30 year mortgage and get going with it." Under no general circumstance will I ever, ever recommend an ARM, especially to someone in a HCOL area like where you are buying.  You have much more room to go up than you do down, and a lot more history of up than down in the modernish era. Bite the bullet on a 30yr at 6.675 and then refinance if you get lucky and they go down. If the 4.7% payment spread is painful enough to be worth the risk of an interest shock on a property in Marin, I'd question whether you're financially able to buy the house in the first place. Bias alert though: I heavily value stable financial prediction over min-max, and I'll take a suboptimal return/costlier approach if it gives me substantial certainty.
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Mar 22, 2023 03:16
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Hadlock posted:So hypothetically if you were buying a house this month, would you choose to rate lock today at 6.25% or wait and see what the fed does tomorrow LanceHunter posted:Federal Reserve raises benchmark rate by 0.25 point despite bank turmoil (non-paywall link) So did you rate lock yesterday?
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Mar 22, 2023 20:43
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Volmarias posted:We reached out to King Madagascar, but could not receive a response as Madagascar has eliminated all outside contact. In retrospect, it's kind of funny that a flash game about spreading your pandemic across the world was possibly more difficult than in reality because of a built-in assumption that somebody somewhere would give a poo poo in real life.
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Mar 24, 2023 22:12
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ultrafilter posted:What is working well these days? I hear that being a billionaire is very profitable!
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May 5, 2023 04:00
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LanceHunter posted:Yes, the highly monopolistic, corporatized industry of *checks notes* day care centers are only raising prices because of corporate greed and not at all because of rising labor costs. Day care is also a bad comparator in general because the entire process ought to be subsidized in the first place. The economics of a child-healthy daycare do not really make sense at any scale of labor costs under the privatized US model, at least. Between caretaker-kid ratios (very important to keep low for child-healthy environments), facility rental costs, insurance costs, operational fees, etc etc, any daycare that pays its workers a good wage while providing a good location for your kids is going to be out of price for a large portion of the population. I can't find it at work, but there's a big NPR piece about the economics of scale for daycares and how it seems to fundamentally not work in the modern US economy.
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May 10, 2023 19:34
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tumblr hype man posted:lol what could go wrong with asking my old boss whose mortgage is $1,400/month for a like 1,800 SF rambler what equivalent rents are? This is reminding me of my grandfather sending my little brother to the grocery store in like 2005 with a list of groceries and a five-dollar bill.
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May 13, 2023 04:07
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pmchem posted:Vanguard is using "machine learning" to predict federal reserve interest rate decisions: 
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Jun 10, 2023 18:08
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On one hand, the entire idea is idiotic. But on the other hand...
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Jul 11, 2023 07:15
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Hadlock posted:Looking forward to refinancing my 6.25% mortgage when the Fed loses that Mexican standoff and lowers rates to 4.99 for exactly one quarter* Gotta admit, it's pretty nice to not get refinance spam all the time from banks now.
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Aug 29, 2023 22:18
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Did that stat include checking accounts? I bet a lot of people have theirs in checking instead of plain savings, if those are treated differently.
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Aug 30, 2023 04:06
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pmchem posted:classic pharma success story, like how viagra was an accident At least this time it’s a useful oopsie instead of dick pills. Well, time for me to apply to jobs there to make sure everything goes to poo poo and the universal order is restored.
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Oct 12, 2023 02:06
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Leperflesh posted:I can easily imagine it, and in fact I can imagine prices continuing to rise, because that's what usually happens. I can also see it for more cynical / oversimplified reasons. 1) "Nobody can afford a doctor" doesn't make doctors affordable. It just means you declare bankruptcy after your appendix bursts. Somehow, we've decided that this is perfectly acceptable as a society, because it was somehow a moral failing by the patient for not having insurance that covered the $15K scheduled / $40K emergency appendectomy. 2) Homelessness sucks, is growing, and in many places is illegalized. On top of that, some colder or hotter regions, it can be straight-up fatal. Somehow, we've decided that this is perfectly acceptable as a society, because it is a moral failing (?) by the homeless person to be homeless. 3) Much like needing an appendectomy, it ends up that the demand for not being homeless & dying from environmental conditions is pretty high. (Or rather, it's a fairly inelastic demand.) Instead of going bankrupt, though, you simply don't own the place and you just keep adding more roommates / less features / longer commutes until the numbers work and you have roof+walls. The owner of the house charges whatever it takes to make their money back plus profit, and you add however many roommates/concessions to your life are required to meet the price tag. And broadly, to conclude: 4) Very few people give an individual gently caress about any random stranger's well-being, which leads to us collectively giving no fucks either. So, between regulatory capture and actual civilian apathy, you end up with a government that makes little to no effort to actually address causes or protect the vulnerable. As a result of this broad, handwavey argument, I could totally see house prices continue to rise, even if it's to the complete detriment of society.
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Oct 18, 2023 20:25
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Ditocoaf posted:I'm sorry, are you trying to be smart or are you trying to drive engagement on your content? Answer carefully -- algorithmic feeds bless only one of those options, and not a lot of media has survived the last couple decades. "ECONOMIST REACTS: BIG BRAIN BLOOMBERG PREDICTS ODDS OF RECESSION. YOU WON'T BELIEVE WHAT THEY SAID!" :big font and person making shocked face:
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Oct 20, 2023 20:07
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Agronox posted:This is interesting: It'd be great if that poo poo goes away. There's no good (for home buyers/sellers, at least) reason that 6% is the standard regardless of market, realtor, etc etc.
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Oct 31, 2023 20:34
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Cugel the Clever posted:"Historic districts" are exempt, so, whoops!, it looks like our entire rich neighborhood of relatively new build mansions is historic. From February... 
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Nov 28, 2023 19:20
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pseudanonymous posted:It’s urealistic and somewhat hypocritical really. I more or less always assumed that every major power in the EU knows the whole thing is just a means to eventually create weak US-style labor markets and a race to the bottom in wages/organization after they can kill off their own highly-paid labor through import of lower-cost free-movement workforces, plus preventing other nations from having protections against their more-developed export economies. Bonus points if you can blame the less-developed economies for the financial woes you inflict upon them in the process. But I am also an eternal pessimist/cynic.
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Dec 21, 2023 04:43
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LanceHunter posted:That assumption seems to be based more on racism/xenophobia than actual data, though. One of the things that really hobbled labor in the US was the anti-immigrant position of a lot of the major unions in the country in the later half of the 20th century, and the resurgence we've seen in the 21st century has been lead primarily by unions like the SEIU that have a larger share of immigrants among their membership. Fair enough; thanks for that. Probably channeling a good bit of my parents/grandparents in my post.
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Dec 21, 2023 05:20
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The Ohtani thing isn't new, either. When the story broke, sports fans were cracking jokes about how "Ohtani" was a really strange way to spell Bonilla. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/37938979/bobby-bonilla-day-2023-new-york-mets-paid-119m-every-july-1 quote:The calendar has turned to July 1, and that means one thing: It's time for Mets fans everywhere to wish each other a Happy Bobby Bonilla Day! Why? On Saturday, 59-year-old Bobby Bonilla will collect a check for $1,193,248.20 from the New York Mets, as he has and will every July 1 from 2011 through 2035. quote:In 2000, the Mets agreed to buy out the remaining $5.9 million on Bonilla's contract. quote:Bonilla last played for the Mets in 1999 and last played in the majors for the Cardinals in 2001, but he will be paid through 2035 (when he'll be 72). Sundae fucked around with this message at 03:53 on Jan 11, 2024 |
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Jan 11, 2024 03:51
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Hadlock posted:Inflation at 3.9% in December; 3.4% less food and fuel This is dependent on all the different jurisdictions involved. As an example, I had to pay county income tax in both my home county and my working county when I lived in Indiana, and Massachusetts has a commuter income tax for people who live in New Hampshire but work in MA. It's possible that MLB has a deal worked out that covers the players in exchange for teams being in the state at all, but I have no idea.
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Jan 12, 2024 20:18
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esquilax posted:They lumped in "Defined Contribution Pension Entitlements" (read: 401k plans) into the pension bucket for purposes of that chart. The funny thing is, if you add 401(k)'s in to that number, it becomes a crazy number in a different, far more  sort of way. $2.5T / 72.24M millennials = $34.6K per millennial. We're not young anymore; that number is horrifying.
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Jan 31, 2024 18:39
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SpartanIvy posted:But have you considered how much avocado toast we have? Toast? IN THIS ECONOMY??
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Feb 1, 2024 04:33
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CapitalOne is "good enough." My cards are through them (one MC one Visa), but I've had them for over a decade now so no idea what their offerings are like these days. They have an OK points program that is decent for travel purposes and they stay out of my hair + no currency-conversion fees. Good enough for what I need, but I'm not exactly a credit afficiando hunting down the best deals or anything.
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Feb 21, 2024 05:20
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Though am ever-increasing frequency of swans may indicate something has changed in your ecosystem. Goon Investing Thread: Swans are expected. YOLO, No Egrets!
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Mar 8, 2024 01:01
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Hadlock posted:That's just... An enormous loss of wealth? Are these funds just writing down the loss and moving on? Not like I know poo poo about gently caress, but I'd venture a guess that there's a bit of the old thing with people's house values going on as well: your house isn't actually "worth more" until you sell it and realize the gains. Maybe the reverse holds true on a long-enough timeline. Hold onto that underwater commercial property as long as you can and ignore the value decline, don't price it in until it's more convenient / comes up enough? If you're hosed either way, might as well hold on until you're a little less hosed?
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Apr 5, 2024 05:31
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I definitely slack off more during the WFH workday than I do in the office, but I don't really give a poo poo because people call me at all hours of the night anyway. The moment you want off-hours productivity, you lose all right to complain about my on-hours activities. One of our poor QA guys is responsible for projects on three continents. The guy, as best I can tell, never sleeps anymore. He's in the office at 8AM, he's still there at 6PM, and I get calls and e-mails from him past 10PM (and sometimes past 1AM) regularly. He should be quitting yesterday.
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Apr 5, 2024 22:30
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Most of that second decile are still closer to working class than actual wealth (given they still have to work for a living) so frankly, if they want to ID as “not rich” that’s still class-consistent IMHO. A pity so many vote against their own interests as working class.
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Apr 20, 2024 23:54
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Lockback posted:Does this include sales folks with customer books because if so hooo boy. My guess is that customer books will be considered business-critical / proprietary, and then it'll turn into a game of trying to prove your ex-sales dude poached your customers vs definitely totally didn't, just complete coincidence and that's why my coworker contacted them and not me.
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Apr 23, 2024 23:22
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bob dobbs is dead posted:... california has not had noncompetes for 150 years. washington sometimes has them but lol California makes up for it by having illegal blacklists and “no-poach” agreements, through. Where there’s a will, there’s a tech company willing to build an app for it 
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Apr 24, 2024 22:57
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SpartanIvy posted:In the last few years I've noticed a big shift in food spending habits from the entry-level people at my company. When I started in 2017 it was not uncommon for a lot of us lower peons to go out to lunch several days a week, if not all 5 days. We work downtown so there's a lot of places that are a short walk. Now we're in office 2 days a week and from what I can tell it's very rare for people to venture out of the office for food. Most people seem to bring their lunch now. When I'm out at lunch and I look around, I also notice a definite lack of younger faces in general. Most people look to be in their 30's or older. I see that as well, even among the people who can’t WFH. They are older (in part because young people are brought on as contractors now and have to fight for a permanent job), and they bring their own lunches, not even using the company cafeteria. I’d put it partially to the insane price of eating out and partially that lunch breaks are shorter and shorter / more consumed by working meetings now than they were when we were entry-level. No point going out to eat when you have 20 min until your next meeting, or if you’re going to be on a call the whole time anyway. Our “entry level” people are in their 30s. There are no 20s in my department that I know of except for an intern.
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May 11, 2024 21:31
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Gucci Loafers posted:Wait what? Yeah I'd like to know this too. The F150 outsells the Tacoma by almost 400% unit count and the Tacoma is (supposedly? I'm not a truck guy) a slightly bigger/more-powerful Hilux. Add to the equation that a lot of truck purchases in the USA are driven by car-culture rather than need or utility, and I don't see how a legal Hilux dethrones the king of big rear end unnecessarily large American God-fearing trucks.
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May 15, 2024 22:28
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D-Pad posted:
I have a sudden vision of the Chinese bikeshare mountains, but far worse. The saving grace will hopefully be that it's way more difficult to make a mountain of $5000 cars than $25 bikes, but oof all the same at that level of oversupply. 
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May 16, 2024 19:27
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Hadlock posted:How does that contrast with petrol car companies at almost exactly a century ago. Seems like there was a cambrian explosion of innovation and diversity until the engineering of how to build reliable and cheap cars was finally settled upon. Morgan famously championed three wheeled sports cars to save weight and possibly aerodynamics KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:They already have lots full of junked crap short range first gen EVs - that's just kind of the nature of a rapidly-evolving technology. The battery tech isn't worth doing much except scrap and salvage. The problem with the cambrian explosion is this stuff. ^^^ Organic poo poo dies off, rots, goes back to nothing. Failed cars / over-production from failed companies sits there leaching poo poo into the environment for the next 100+ years (or catches fire, etc etc). I get that the tech is going to evolve and get better, but in the meantime, massive overproduction is going to leave a mountain of unmanageable waste behind. 
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May 16, 2024 20:27
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