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Honestly I think the story so far is more the 'respectable' candidates doing badly than Trump doing well. They're letting themselves be trapped in downward spirals that scare off donors. A lot is being bet on Rubio, a newbie with a weak campaign organisation and not a great deal of scrutiny.
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Nov 21, 2015 01:25
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Brannock posted:I didn't say Trump had anything to do with Carson's fall in my post. I just said that Carson was the only one to come close to Trump's numbers and he's in the middle of a decline right now. It would take multiple candidates' consolidation for Rubio or Cruz to challenge Trump numberswise. Found it.  Note also Huckabee popping up out of the little leagues near the end of the year. quote:Who are you responding to? I'm not sure I understand what you're trying to say with this. I understand that you're making a point about probability. That people are saying things like 'What plausible scenarios are there where Trump loses?' when it's not implausible at all that Trump loses. They're mistaking a run of success for a mark of invincible strength when maybe it doesn't mean much at all. If the coin keeps coming up heads for a dozen flips, then you can say that it's been rigged somehow. And if Trump keeps winning for the next three months, we can say he's turned expectation on their head.
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Nov 21, 2015 01:50
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I assume the Nate Silver comment was directed at people who think Trump is some kind of wrecking ball hurled through American politics as a whole, rather than the strict nomination question. Otherwise it wouldn't make sense to comment on the small proportion of people who are Republicans.
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Nov 21, 2015 01:55
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:The caveat is that we're still a long way out from the actual election and our data at this point is very limited. But that argument cuts both ways; it's not so much an argument against a Trump victory as an argument that *any* prediction at this stage should be considered highly suspect. I actually agree with this, I think Joe is overegging it when he says Trump has no chance at all, rather than a small chance. The standard model could very well be wrong, in general or for this primary in particular. Trump's success isn't incredible, but the failure of any of the 'sensible' candidates to impress is I think more worrying. I suspect that if Trump has a game-changing power this cycle, it lies in convincing people that he has one, and that he's destroying all comers and bullying people out of the race and so on. So Bush has a poll decline and rather than just toughing it out and building up his organisation in primary states ready for the real fight he has to convince skittish donors that he's not imploding completely in the face of Almighty Trump or face running out of money. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy. I've read, I forget where, some articles claiming that in the wake of Citizens United donors are much more prone to meddling and micromanaging and this has been causing problems for primary campaigns, since donors don't actually know poo poo about electoral campaign strategy. quote:I'd like to see this answered also. All the number-crunchers are pointing to brief flameouts like Guiliani or Paul or Gingrich. That's the thing. Trump wishes he had Giuliani's sustained poll domination. Peel fucked around with this message at 02:11 on Nov 21, 2015 |
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Nov 21, 2015 02:08
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Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:Should we be worried? General election polls have almost no value at this time. The Democratic primary is barely underway, let alone the general election campaign.
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Nov 23, 2015 17:34
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After Jeb gives up to go play Football Manager and Rubio turns out to be the Funnybones' landlord it will be time for Kasich Era. Or that's what he's probably banking on.
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Nov 25, 2015 15:49
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What pushed me into the 'fascist' camp about Trump was his excusing the attack on the protester, that's getting into the popular political violence that's pretty characteristic.
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Nov 26, 2015 03:42
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Jeb's slow deflation into a third-tier candidate is one of my favourite little joys of the last couple of months.
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Dec 3, 2015 21:37
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the way this election is going i'm pretty sure the adultery bomb is going to be jeb's wife
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Dec 4, 2015 02:08
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Impressive how they managed to make a 15 minute documentary about the man without coordinating with him or his campaign.
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Dec 4, 2015 17:11
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Scrub-Niggurath posted:I haven't followed any election news since August, is it still trump then bush then Rubio in the polls? Trump is on top. Carson below him and falling fast. Cruz and Rubio about even, then Bush gradually declining into Kasich-Paul-Huckabee status. The Carson surge is the main intervening event, being possibly the first time a presidential candidate has been beset with allegations that he did not attempt to murder someone.
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Dec 4, 2015 18:02
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Patter Song posted:
This is mainly embarrassing for Kasich.
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Dec 7, 2015 10:31
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Mitt Romney posted:Why does he call everyone brother? His inferiority complex has reached such a height that he's hallucinating W everywhere.
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Dec 9, 2015 23:53
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Every poll with Bush at 3 or below is a Christmas miracle. Can he make 2? Can he do that, for us?
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Dec 10, 2015 14:41
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Speaking of peaking, I'm looking forward to Trump's line against Cruz.
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Dec 10, 2015 14:51
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TheTatteredKing posted:I wonder how Jeb is like when he's in a comfortable environment Asleep.
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Dec 11, 2015 02:17
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Jewel Repetition posted:The majority of white people do not support Trump. You have a jar of M&Ms, 10% of them are poisoned. How many do you eat?
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Dec 12, 2015 03:14
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Whenever Jeb gets a good poll, a fairy dies.
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Dec 13, 2015 17:04
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how long are they going to keep up these clown-car debates, mother of god
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Dec 13, 2015 19:21
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why does pataki even show up just go home and drink and remember the good old days when you could say 'i'm a republican' with a straight face
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Dec 13, 2015 20:08
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Carrasco posted:This is from three months ago, but it's still very sad. As the article explains in its first two paragraphs, polls four and a half months out are not predictive of Iowa and the previous two winners began to surge late. His RCP average is the weakest point against Jindal there. The article is funny in retrospect but not obviously wrong from the perspective of late September.
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Dec 14, 2015 12:59
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Zwabu posted:Hm. I wonder if the Cruz leaker is Jeb or Rubio (or Trump!) opp-o or just some person who doesn't like Cruz. It's presumably both 1. a person and 2. not Cruz himself, so the latter is a safe bet.
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Dec 15, 2015 01:51
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I am enjoying the recent trajectory of Rubio's poll average. please tell me you have the source for this e: nvm, found it in true jeb! style, 'jeb bush pounded hard' did not turn up a single exciting result Peel fucked around with this message at 23:44 on Dec 15, 2015 |
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Dec 15, 2015 23:42
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if there's a serious attempt to push christie then lol
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Dec 16, 2015 23:34
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now we have the benefit of distance, what the hell happened to walker does it all just come down to running out of money?
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Dec 19, 2015 23:43
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PleasingFungus posted:I saw an interesting argument the other day that Trump's fans have been following him long enough that there's a momentum there in itself; deserting him now would be admitting that they were wrong, and so they won't. I also really doubt this. It's easy enough to say 'I like Trump, but this other guy is also a good candidate' or 'I like Trump but I can't be bothered to go vote' or just edge away over a few weeks and then slowly edit this into never having liked Trump in a serious way in your internal narrative. Bad luck if you were caught on camera with a MAGA hat and a placard though.
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Dec 20, 2015 14:27
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If it looks like Jeb is going to be bumped there's a good chance they'll bend the rules to let him in, like they did Paul last time.
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Dec 23, 2015 19:28
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Glad to see Christie polling ahead of Jeb, but I won't be satisfied until he's being beaten by Kasich too.
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Dec 23, 2015 21:41
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People like to call Bush I the Good Bush because he wasn't Reagan or his son and there's some truth to that but he was Director of the CIA so prolly he doesn't have blood on his hands so much as there are two hand-shaped gaps in the blood enveloping him.
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Dec 27, 2015 11:52
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If Cruz wins the nomination he's just one economic crisis away from the presidency, and there's plenty of room for one of those in 2016.
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Jan 1, 2016 12:35
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When's the next RCP-grade national poll due? I need my fix and their last data is more than a fortnight old.
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Jan 7, 2016 03:36
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'Herewith 'natural born citizen' shall be interpreted to mean any person born a citizen of the United States with the exception of Rafael Edward Cruz, specifically.'
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Jan 17, 2016 19:03
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Anyone thinking the endorsement is too hyped to be a wet fart should remember the 100 black pastors.
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Jan 19, 2016 12:54
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that there's more of a coordinated attempt to knife cruz than trump is one of the many small joys of this election also code:
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Jan 21, 2016 05:46
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conservative thinkers, that sounds potentially interesting, I guess I'll want to at least hear them ouranging from The Weekly Standard's William Kristol to RedState's Erick Erickson okay nevermind
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Jan 22, 2016 01:55
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Prof. Lurker posted:http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/feb/2/donald-trump-nominated-nobel-peace-prize/ It's really easy to become a nominee for the Peace Prize, there have been plenty of gag nominees in the past like Putin or Obama.
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Feb 3, 2016 13:32
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If Carson can poison his supporters against Cruz that would be pretty great, but Cruz gaining the critical victory he needed only to immediately lose it again because he hosed the rat too obviously is too poetic to happen in the real world.
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Feb 3, 2016 22:47
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I pity Kasich. He was just in striking distance of an unlikely performance as the first of Rubio/Bush/Kasich/Christie in New Hampshire, and now Rubio is consolidating and eating his lunch.
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Feb 5, 2016 02:43
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It's going to be such a relief when Christie drops out and can finally admit to his neighbours that he's voting for Trump.
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Feb 6, 2016 16:02
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Mordiceius posted:I completely agree that the gold standard is stupid, but could you further explain why? I know it is stupid, but I'm not sure I understand how it fucks everything up. You know how Europe has been doing even worse than America for the last five years? That's because the Euro puts them on an ersatz gold standard. The countries that had severe crises were unable to take action to mitigate those crises because their governments can't spend as much as they need to, because they don't control their own currency, and they can't properly devalue their currency exchange rate because they have the healthier parts of Europe propping it up. Instead they've had to cut spending, which makes things worse. More generally, gold standard currencies are unstable in value because they are tied to a random commodity people thought was shiny 3000 years ago, rather than being deliberately stabilised by central bank policy on the basis of a broad basket of goods. Cruz's claim that the gold standard would make things more stable is a common goldbug refrain, and it's not just wrong but the opposite of the truth.
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Feb 8, 2016 21:46
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