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Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

Torka posted:

As a non-American Huckabee is the only republican candidate in recent years who has real charisma in public speaking and interviews. I think almost all of his opinions are terrible but he's really great at coming across as a nice reasonable guy and although that should be easy I can't think of many others on that side of the aisle who've managed it in the last decade.

Charisma doesn't seem to mean as much as it used to though, didn't help Huntsman.

You can have all the charisma in the world and it doesn't matter to the GOP if you say that climate change is real.

"The one thing all of us have a responsibility to do is to recognize that climate change is here, it’s real. What we have to do is stop pointing fingers about who’s at fault and saying whose responsibility it is to fix it and recognize it’s all our fault and it’s all our responsibility to fix it.

I also support cap and trade of carbon emissions. And I was disappointed that the Senate rejected a carbon counting system to measure the sources of emissions, because that would have been the first and the most important step toward implementing true cap and trade."

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Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

Cliff Racer posted:

I forget if it was Erick Erickson or Moe Lane but one of the two big Red State (big, media-driving Tea Party website) guys absolutely hated Huntsman for organizing his campaign while ambassador. He considered it near-traitorous that someone would be working to undermine the President while in a position like that. Whether he would always react that way or whether those beliefs were triggered by an existing hatred of Huntsman I don't know but if I remember correctly Obama was very mad about it too, for similar reasons.

Some people were calling that nomination a masterstroke on Obama's part because of how he was nullifying his most dangerous would-be 2012 rival.

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

In his house at Ch'cago dead Emmanuel waits dreaming.

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

Intel&Sebastian posted:

Yeah file that in the same folder as Darryl Issa's wacky arson/car theft past as oddly non-admissible.

It's non-admissible because the combination of both sides do it-ism and O'Keefe's dildo cruise means that undercover journalism is permanently off the table as a way to discredit anything.

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

Babylon Astronaut posted:

That's what I'm saying. For all her folksy bullshit, she has no idea what livestock weighs. Quick Sarah, what's bigger a cow or an elephant? I think the real tell is she cannot control the volume of her voice. It's not even for emphasis, she has no control of the volume or cadence of her speech and she speaks in public for a living.

Pretty sure she was actually just combining the expressions "800-pound gorilla" and "elephant in the room" there.

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

Fulchrum posted:

The midterms are meaningless for overall trends considering how severely every single Democratic demographic's tunrout was depleted. Hell, they managed 10% of the black vote, instead of their usual 0.02%, simply cause of so few black voters.

How is an election that was affected by depleted turnout (even moreso than a typical midterm) meaningless for overall trends? Those Dem core constituencies didn't show up to vote for a reason.

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

Skeesix posted:

I'd say this is rather more the Mark McGwire method: http://edition.cnn.com/2005/ALLPOLITICS/03/17/steroids.baseball/

Also I'd note that the choice of "Ballghazi" as the name for the deflated ball thing is meant to be indicative that it's only a scandal for a very select group of people.

Or the Barack Obama method: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/12/us/politics/12inquire.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

Bush already got a free pass on Iraq from everyone who had the power to do something about it so Jeb has plenty of cover to do the exact same thing.

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

computer parts posted:

One point does not make a trend.

Yes except this is part of a continuing trend in a decline of voter participation, and saying 2014's results are meaningless completely discounts the idea that other factors could have influenced the results in a way that could affect future elections such as the sudden inrush of voter ID laws or the Dems having trouble pushing things that get their base enthusiastic.

I'm not saying a women voter split of 51D/47R is the new normal especially with Hillary likely on the ballot but for Democrats to assume that 2014 happened in a vacuum and not study possible causes for it would be really irresponsible on their part. The election after your core constituencies failed to turn out is a really bad time to take their votes for granted.

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

Cigar Aficionado posted:

So he's giving up his Senate seat?

He's pushing for the party to do a caucus so that he doesn't have to, no idea what he does if he doesn't have enough friends in the state for that to happen though.

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

OctoberBlues posted:

I really hope this early momentum for Team Ted pushes him into first place in the polls and gets him to actually believe he can win. His meltdown, even if it's mostly private or internal, will be hilarious because of course people will move onto the next new thing and he will fall way back down in the polls.

I already can't wait for the tell-all book.

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

William Bear posted:

I don't think anyone has commented yet on Rand Paul revealing the slogan of his campaign:

“Defeat the Washington machine. Unleash the American dream.”

According to Politico.


http://www.politico.com/story/2015/04/rand-paul-2016-campaign-slogan-116685.html

Rah rah! Fight the powah!

What's the over/under on the number of anti-establishment bands that demand he stop using their music/saying nice things about them?

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

Hollismason posted:

I legit do not know what this means or is in reference to.

Some in the media like scolding non-voters for shirking their civic responsibilities but Bush 3 vs Clinton 2 would seen by many as a justifiable reason to be apathetic.

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

sullat posted:

Wasn't Citizens United the result of Hillary suing to stop a similar type of attak ad?

Also, wasn't the original name of the organization Citizens United Not Timid or am I mixing up a real political organization with an unbelievably petulant one?

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

FAUXTON posted:

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016

These days you can literally ask that question verbally of google and it will tell you.

Polls this far out are essentially name recognition. Hillary shouldn't be considered the presumptive President by any stretch of the imagination and the premature victory lap the entire party seems poised to take over this gives me this ominous feeling that she's going to blow it.

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

Babylon Astronaut posted:

It was the IRS. They were butthurt that they spent 4.1 million on hosting a conference for 2,600 people. The 4 mill included travel and lodging, so all in all, it's about $1,600 per person, which really isn't that bad. 3 days in a hotel, airfare to Los Angeles and food for $1,600 is a pretty cheap vacation. Most of the complaints came from people who didn't even understand the value of having everyone meet up in the same place for some face time.

I'm pretty sure the more major one was the $800k event the GSA had in Vegas because of the optics of "the government's own watchdogs blowing YOUR MONEY on a pleasure junket in Sin City!!!"

But yeah it was especially irritating to hear people trying to argue that the government should be run more like a business and yet not have conferences, which large and successful businesses clearly have all the time.

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

uncurable mlady posted:

It's not an unacceptable price at all, but it would mean that millions have their spending power reduced by some small amount as well. I think that's a perfectly acceptable trade off. When you consider the knock-on effects of raising families out of poverty a few generations on, it's even more valuable to the society.

Not to mention a shitload of people who are currently getting paid slightly more than $15/hr would have upward wage pressure themselves as a result.

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

Spiritus Nox posted:

Is it really productive to accuse politicians of flip-flopping based on public opinion, as though that in and of itself is reason to seriously condemn them? Like, isn't that literally the entire point of a democracy - to reward politicians who fall in line with popular sentiment with power on the assumption that they will use that power to enact policy in line with that sentiment? We can argue over whether a candidate's voting record and past policy can inspire optimism that future policy will fall in line with public statements, but wasting more than five seconds being angry that a candidate doesn't actually feel passionate about a given issue seems like an exercise in futility. I don't actually care beyond curiosity's sake what my president or my senator thinks of gay people or Iraq or whatever on a personal level so long as I feel they enact good policy.

The problem is if they agree with you now because it's politically expedient, they could disagree with you tomorrow if that's politically expedient too. Sure Hillary can say "invading Iraq was bad" now, but if some major event happens in 2017 and the very serious people are agitating for an invasion of somewhere, can you really trust that she would continue to share your opposition to wasteful and pointless military adventurism or will she cave to what can lazily be justified as "bipartisan consensus"? Ideally you want someone who shares not only your views, but the thought process that led to them.

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

VanSandman posted:

What is Hillary's supposed feud with reporters? Is it because she doesn't have Bill's ridiculous charisma?

I think it has something to do with them spending two decades watching her opponents lob smoke bombs in her family's general direction and concluding that all the smoke means there must be a fire.

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

DaveWoo posted:

lovely attempt at a joke aside, the 4th of July isn't even about "independence from gov't". It's about the declaration of our independence from Britain, so that we could form our own system of government.

How the gently caress do you get something as fundamental as the meaning of July 4th wrong.

quote:

On the night of the Fourth of July, we thought of Reagan’s ingenious suggestion that the old political dynamic of Left v. Right should be refigured:

"Isn’t our choice really one of up or down? Down through statism, the welfare state, more and more government largesse, accompanied always by more government authority, less individual liberty and ultimately totalitarianism, always advanced as for our own good. The alternative is the dream conceived by our Founding Fathers, up to the ultimate in individual freedom, consistent with an orderly society.
We don’t celebrate Dependence Day on the Fourth of July. We celebrate Independence Day."

Source: Dutch, by Edmund Morris, p.506 , Jul 4, 1984

Like literally everything else he says or thinks that wasn't directly fed to him by a donor, he's just aping Reagan here.

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

Raskolnikov38 posted:

The problem is that you can't keep the press at arms length (at best) while running for president no matter how assholish they've been to you. If she would grit her teeth and just play along Bernie would probably be polling a little lower.

Are there really that many Bernie supporters who would be supporting Hillary were it not for her cold shoulder to the media? That sounds like something that media members would promote to make themselves seem more important.

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

Defenestration posted:

Do people seriously think there are Clinton voters who would vote any republican over Bernie? They'll pull the lever for the D, or they'll get their Christian theocracy Gilead World War III with Iran, as promised :colbert:

No, but people think there are Clinton voters who would rather not make the effort to vote than vote for Bernie. It's pretty well understood at this point that turnout is way more important than persuasion when it comes to winning elections.

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

MrBims posted:

I'm not convinced the Megyn Kelly tiff wasn't planned from the start. The negative reaction from the right was unplanned, like Eric Erickson and the poo poo people are giving him now, but Fox knows their audience. Ailes knows that the average Fox viewer is a 70-something who pines for 'the good old days' and wants to see women's skirts on screen. And they lapped that answer up so hard, they don't see anything wrong with calling women pigs. It was all about getting this stuff out in the open now and solidifying him.

The real question is whether they actually want Trump as president.

There has supposedly been a power struggle lately in Newscorp after Murdoch supposedly bumped Ailes from the line of succession in favor of one of the Murdoch sons. Murdoch is on record of being very opposed to Trump's candidacy while Trump and Ailes are close personally. It's very possible to imagine a scenario where Murdoch ordered Trump be taken out and Ailes granted his wish like an evil genie and ran the clumsiest hatchet job imaginable in a way that would just bolster Trump's support and force the network to stop after they got enough hate mail and boycott threats. Ailes ratfucking his employer out of spite and enabling the GOP to destroy itself as a result would be the best possible outcome of all this and is also completely plausible so I'm choosing to believe that's where all of this is heading.

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

Bryter posted:

I think you would actually be surprised at just how immoderate his proposed strategy of bombing Iraq's oil fields to defeat ISIS would turn out to be!

Actually the new plan is to re-invade and set up a defensive perimeter around the oil fields, then pump the oil ourselves and use the money to fund the VA.

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

Actually the mark of a career politician is that you hold political office for most if not all your career.

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

MrBims posted:

As an independent. In one of his elections as mayor, he was up against the Democratic candidate who had been endorsed by the Republicans in order to take him out (they failed)

How does this statement refute the point that someone who has been in politics for 30 years can very reasonably be considered to be a career politician?

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

Neurolimal posted:

I guess, if you want to be pedantic about words to describe "people are sick of politicians who dont enact popular policies when given the chance to, because thats not their real job".

What was the excuse given when the democrats waffled over "bipartisanship" untill the seats rebalanced and they could safely support progressive policies again?

It's not really pedantic to point out that it's dumb to make up your own private language where well established terms have definitions you just invented.

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

Mitt Romney posted:

Also Jeb has this:



And the entire backing of the GOP establishment, plus backing of the entire Koch organization (which has field operations right now that are as strong as a presidential campaign) once the race thins out.

There's no way Trump can keep up this in all the states which his comparative less resources and organization. Three speeches a week isn't going to cut it.

The real danger for the GOP though is if he lasts long enough into 2016 to where he runs 3rd party; although I suspect that all of his supporters will quickly disappear if it appears that he's a loser to Jeb.

Donald Trump could probably scrape up the amount of money that is represented on that entire graph without having any material effect on his standard of living. I don't understand why "Jeb! has A HUNDRED MILLION DOLLARS" is supposed to be some kind of magic bullet against a billionaire. A lack of a field operation isn't a problem that Trump money can't solve.

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

Good Citizen posted:

The Carson block is composed of evangelicals who aren't quite stupid enough to believe the bible is Trump's favorite book

He's pulling 18% from non-evangelicals too though so there is a sizable My Black Friend cohort.

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

MrBims posted:

http://www.mediaite.com/online/hillary-clinton-makes-voters-sign-loyalty-pledge-before-entering-event/




Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you, the inevitable nominee and future president. This is totally not an out-of-touch and souring act of desperation that stays in peoples minds.

Do you actually think that asking someone to fill out a fundraising/volunteering form at a campaign event is the same thing as forcing people to do it as a condition of entry or are you just playing dumb? Politicians collect names at campaign events literally all the time.

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

JT Jag posted:

The report claimed that it was a prerequisite for entry, the Clinton campaign contests this

The report says "asked" which is completely different from "required".

e: thehill.com report says 'asked', the original article says 'required' but the reasons why that's completely full of poo poo have already been covered

Dr.Zeppelin fucked around with this message at 22:28 on Sep 7, 2015

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

Joementum posted:

Maybe a volunteer got a little zealous, but that reporter seems like she might have blown this event a bit out of proportion.

A reporter thinking that torpedoing the Clinton campaign will get them a Pulitzer and acting accordingly? Like that would ever happen

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

Third World Reggin posted:

I still prefer whoopys response of muslim isn't a race.

Trump has said there is a muslim problem in the world and the swiss did not fly planes into the WTC. In the same breath he said he likes most muslims.

Most people won't disagree with this statement despite it being a bit callous. ISIS might as well be called a muslim problem in the world.

If trump were to be asked is there a christian problem in the world, he might say yes as well. We have seen christians bomb buildings. It is a problem that involves christians.

Yes, this pedantic hair-splitting is exactly what Trump had in mind and he would definitely go on the record saying there is a Christian problem in the world. Definitely.

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

Samurai Sanders posted:

Yeah I don't really get it. Why are the GOP even running this thing with those candidates? It's meaningless unless it produces a candidate who has a chance...or are they just planning to take a loss and gear up for 2020?

They're counting on a discrepancy in voter enthusiasm and tapping unlikely voter constituencies. Not that hard to picture an election where a significant number of dems refuse to hold their nose for Hillary and/or are discouraged or shut out from voting due to the various restrictions that continue to be instituted.

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

Fantastic_Mr_Fox posted:

Which really doesn't make sense with how good Obama has been doing.

Yeah, Ben Carson thinks Obama's doing great.

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

Boosted_C5 posted:

LFPR is at a near 4 decade low.

Who could have possibly predicted that the elderly share of the population and average number of years of schooling would both continue increasing

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

The X-man cometh posted:

If I'm Piyush, I'd have way too much pride to drop out before Gilmore and Pataki.

Yeah how dare that rear end in a top hat try to assimilate growing up in the completely unprejudiced south, god

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

Pulp Can Move posted:

Ted Cruz: B+

What is wrong with these people.

The reviewers, or the people they're curving the reviews to? They're absolutely correct that Cruz was very well received by the GOP base. If you don't think he was a B+ it's because you're not their target vote.

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

Neeksy posted:

Uh. It kinda is now? Have you not seen the things on FanDuel and DraftKings and all the weird insider bullshit and ESPN-linkage going on? They have a show that basically treats it like a new stock market because they have "daily duels" now.

In retrospect it's really weird that Christie blew up with his "who gives a poo poo about fantasy football when ISIS is trying to kill us" rant because all of the candidates were fully aware that this debate was supposed to focus on domestic economic issues and not foreign policy. Regardless of whether or not anyone thinks FanDuel is important it's at least within the pre-agreed topics of discussion.

Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

babypolis posted:

im starting to feel legit sorry for jeb. everything he does fails horribly, no one is taking him seriously, and all he seems to get out this whole thing is humiliation and sickening jokes about his wife and family whom he clearly loves very much. i know its anathema to feel simpathy for a bush but i honestly believe him and his brother are well meaning rubes conned into a horrible ideology by their father and his cronies

He's proud of ruining lots of people's lives who gives a poo poo about him

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Dr.Zeppelin
Dec 5, 2003

Phlegmish posted:

They're obviously starting to push Rubio now. You say he has crossover appeal, but I wonder, isn't his record on immigration going to make him unpopular with the base, especially compared to straight shooter Trump?

His fav/unfav is very high, the base doesn't give a poo poo that he had a dumb view and fixed it (in their opinion). This DOA argument and the fact that the best liberals seem to be able to do against him is "he drank water funny once lol" makes him by far the biggest threat right now

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