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Comfortador posted:With Amari Cooper, DeVante Parker, Kevin White, and Nelson Agholor of the board receiver wise I was going to pick up either Green-Beckham or Breshad Perriman in my rookie draft. Green-Beckham seems like the raw beast of talent going to a questionable team, versus Perriman who is good and going to a better fit for him. Perriman is a wr who is fast and can't catch the ball very well. DGB has the tools to be a dominant wr but he got in trouble off the field in college.
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May 25, 2015 16:27
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Fight Club Sandwich posted:Zero RB strat last year was not viable. I did a bunch of mocks going for a Graham/Gronk or a DT/Peyton strat and kept getting Toby Gerhart and Bishop Sankey as RB1/2 and I wasn't comfortable with that Zero rb strat was totally viable. There were plenty of serviceable running backs that could be had for a very low cost. Off the top of my head: Hill, Crowell, CJ Anderson, Forsett, Asiata, and Tre Mason could all be had for late round picks and were startable players throughout the year. If you kept up with injuries and the waiver wire there were also backs that you play for a few weeks like Bobby Rainey, Alfed Blue, and Lorenzo Taliaferro. Drafting 'zero rb' or any other strategy doesn't mean your team will be good if you draft bad......which last year if your rb1/2 are Gerhart and Sankey then you done hosed up. Beer4TheBeerGod posted:That's basically 0RB in a nutshell. The whole point behind the strategy is to capitalize on the light level of turnover in the RB position. If you're drafting high upside WR sleepers after you already have Demaryius Thomas and Calvin Johnson then your strategy is not very optimal IMO. I disagree with the last part. Taking a few high upside flyers after grabbing studs at that position is a fine move. The point of the draft is to maximize the value of your team, not to have the best week to week lineup. If you already have studs at wr but you feel like the best pick at your slot is a high upside wr....take them. If you hit you will be very rich at a position and you will have valuable assets to make a trade if you are weak elsewhere.
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Jun 13, 2015 17:06
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Its Miller Time posted:Bell, JC, ADP and Forte go 1-4. I'm 5. Gronk
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Jun 18, 2015 22:25
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Dandy Kaiser posted:all that graph proves to me is that i now have visual evidence for my gently caress TEs crusade Proves to me that I'll be drafting Gronk at every opportunity available.
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Jun 27, 2015 16:50
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89 posted:Show me the successful websites that snuffed out the smokescreens behind Ball, Patterson, Gerhart, and etc before the season started. To this day I don't understand the hype behind Patterson last year. Every site was hyping him through the roof when he was completely reliant on YAC and long running plays to be fantasy relevant.
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Jul 7, 2015 04:42
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I'll join after work if there's an opening. Trying to join from mobile was a pain.
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Jul 10, 2015 15:52
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RisqueBarber posted:Who would you guys take here (Red are players taken)? To me its between Blount and Boldin. Allen Robinson for sure.
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Jul 10, 2015 19:59
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RVProfootballer posted:
This only applies to 3 wr sets and is not a negative to Mathews value in any way.
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Jul 10, 2015 20:07
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Franks Happy Place posted:I think his point was that Agholor has good upside as Chip's X receiver, not that Matthews has diminished value.
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Jul 10, 2015 20:52
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Forever_Peace posted:Levitan has an article up on overdrafted players and I found myself agreeing with nearly every single thing he says. I don't think miller or obj are being drafted that high honestly. I probably won't own many shares but I don't think their adp is outrageous.
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Jul 22, 2015 17:14
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Forever_Peace posted:OBJ going ahead of Dez and Julio is bananas. He is going to regress and I can't fathom taking him ahead of the 1/2 turn. Dez and Julio should probably both be gone by pick 6 imo. Regardless, obj could regress by 30% of his per game average last season and still put up wr1 numbers(unless wr numbers go up across the board) Also you have to at least consider the possibility that he doesn't regress. While extremely unlikely, he could actually be one of the best wrs to ever play and put up a historically great season. Last year Antonio Browns tds were supposed to be unsustainable and would surely regress, instead he had a career high. I wouldn't take him before dez, Julio, or brown....but a mid-late 1st seems fair to me. However I am extremely down on most of the first round rbs this year, so my draft board is very wr heavy at the top.
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Jul 22, 2015 18:06
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Its Miller Time posted:Also, I'd love your guys take on which players are significantly helped/hurt by the best ball format. I thought about trying to do some "big game" math but gave up. "Best ball format helps this players value" is the new "good play in a gpp". While you do want players who can have big weeks, the idea is so loosely thrown around to justify suboptimal picks that it begins to lose meaning,
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Jul 24, 2015 00:24
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Teletubbies would probably be a fun show to watch while high.
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Jul 24, 2015 16:04
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89 posted:I ended up going with the 7th pick in a 10 man draft. The plan is for LeVeon to slip to me, if not, end up with DeMarco and go D.Thomas or Jordy with my 2nd pick (we have 3 WRs and 2 RBs, no flex). I figure if LeVeon doesn't slip to me, I go with DeMarco. Why do you believe the player who typically goes 1st overall will slip into the 2nd round?
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Jul 24, 2015 22:56
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89 posted:0RB? Like...drafting WR/WR and then going RB? No, like loading up on wrs and maybe a tight end until rounds 5 or 6
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Jul 25, 2015 14:45
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Bellmaker posted:How high can you reasonably take Le'veon assuming he's missing three games in redraft? Three games without your RB1 seems like a lot. 1.1
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Jul 26, 2015 20:15
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Value based drafting is based on the idea that you can project players somewhat accurately. If you were able to do that consistently, fantasy football would be trivial and you probably would be working for an nfl team.
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Jul 28, 2015 04:21
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Prophecy120 posted:As someone who is pretty dead-set on waiting as long as possible on QBs, can anyone talk me out of drafting Eli Manning or Ryan Tannehill? 4 point passing league.
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Jul 28, 2015 17:36
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I'd keep kelce and Charles then try to trade Charles.
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Jul 28, 2015 20:43
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Sataere posted:It doesn't matter his talent level if he is going to get the majority of looks in an offense with the best line in football. His talent could very easily prevent him from getting the majority of the looks. Dallas could go out and sign a free agent any day that would compete for carries.
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Jul 30, 2015 00:22
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You guys can take randle all day long. I simply cannot draft a player so reliant on his teammates to return value at his current adp, which looks like it will become even higher as we get closer to the season. If everything goes well for him this year and Dallas has no critical injuries on offense for the 2nd year in a row, he should be a low rb1 or high end rb2. If his adp creeps up another round or 2nthen there's hardly any upside, best case scenario is he'll return value for you. Easy pass for me this year.
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Jul 30, 2015 01:50
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McCoy is pretty sketchy, but with all of the older rbs going in the first few rounds I doubt he ends up being the biggest bust this year.
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Jul 30, 2015 13:46
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Doltos posted:Yeah the first round ADP on yahoo right now are Charles, Peterson, Lacy, Lynch, Bell, Forte, Murray with Foster, McCoy, Hill and Anderson rounding out the second round. Out of those first rounders I'd only feel safe with Charles and Bell, feel really good with Murray/Forte/Lacy/McCoy, and would want to avoid age 30 one year off of football Peterson and Marshawn 'literally 350 carries every year and is bound to break down or have his TDs vultured soon sometime' Lynch. I only feel safe with bell, lacy, Anderson, and hill. I don't think I could take any other rbs in the first 2 rounds.
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Jul 30, 2015 16:53
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Benne posted:Marshawn Lynch hasn't missed a game in 4 years despite his absurd workloads. I don't know why fantasy people are so eager to write him off every August. Running backs maintain roughly the same annual production until the year they do not. It is usually not a graceful fall, but rather a straight free fall.
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Jul 30, 2015 20:56
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Metapod posted:I swear guys this is the year Josh Freeman breaks out plus you can get him at great value This but geno smith
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Jul 30, 2015 23:59
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Benne posted:Don't Draft Any Browns Duke Johnson
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Jul 31, 2015 13:33
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Gyshall posted:
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Jul 31, 2015 18:55
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Gyshall posted:What is different about the two? 0 RB you're still leaving your draft with Running Backs. Upside down is based on the premise that you can extract value from the draft by drafting differently than your opponents...zig when they zag. If wr in the first round became the conventional thing to do, upside down drafting would dictate you drafting a rb early. 0rb is based around being anti-fragile. Elite wrs have shown to have less year to year variance and are less likely to be injured than elite rbs. Wrs are a safer position so you should draft them early when draft capital carries so much opportunity cost. Later round picks can bust without ruining your team so you wait to take rbs so your team is less susceptible to variance.
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Jul 31, 2015 19:25
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When do ESPN leagues determine draft order? Upon league filling or a predetermined time before the draft?
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Aug 1, 2015 01:56
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Azhais posted:Or it'll be like Blounts (12 team 1 qb) where multiple teams have 4+ qbs just to stop people having a backup Excuse me, I have Ryan Mallet as a backup and Tim Tebow on speed dial 
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Aug 2, 2015 23:02
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Doltos posted:I agree that Brown to the third round WRs is a bigger drop off, but where are you getting these outscored point totals for QBs? In Yahoo standard scoring, Luck outscored Manning 518.35 points to 464.95. Roethlisberger clocked in at 464.70 and Brees was at 436.50. Nobody plays standard scoring these days. Edit: The totals the other guy gave are from a 4pt passing td scoring system, which most people play with. Papes fucked around with this message at 04:18 on Aug 3, 2015 |
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Aug 3, 2015 04:15
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Just wait till the 3rd to last round and draft mariota, Alex smith, or geno smith.
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Aug 3, 2015 22:15
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I must be the only person who is low on Landry. Stills and Parker could likely be the top 2 wrs on the Dolphins. Even if they don't, I just see where the targets to make Landry a 'ppr God' will come from.
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Aug 4, 2015 15:58
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Amergin posted:Personally I'd rank them Matthews > Hilton (slightly) > Benjamin > Evans (slightly). On what scoring system would you possibly take Benjamin over Evans? Points per drop?
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Aug 5, 2015 20:41
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Amergin posted:Bucs' O-line and Winston throwing don't give me warm & fuzzies. Evans historically good rookie season wasn't exactly aided by a good supporting cast.
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Aug 6, 2015 01:26
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Metapod posted:Kelce because he is good while Randle is not This and it's not close.
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Aug 7, 2015 15:57
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Fight Club Sandwich posted:How big are your balls? Kelce is safer but Randle will outright win you the league if he pans out. I'd argue that kelce possesses more league winning potential than randle while being safer.
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Aug 7, 2015 17:47
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Remember when monte ball and Gerhart were locks to get 200+ carries and would produce on volume alone.
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Aug 7, 2015 18:19
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Dandy Kaiser posted:Remember when Monte Ball was a rookie getting coached by John Fox No, because he wasn't a rookie last year. He was just a sucky running back and when his coaches realized this he was phased out of the lineup.
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Aug 7, 2015 18:33
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Cigar Aficionado posted:So how is Odell Beckham going to be worth a late first round pick as a sophomore with a tiny sample size? His 8 game sample size was historically great.
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Aug 8, 2015 01:01
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