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Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004

Silly Burrito posted:

A question for you that came up amongst a few players in our league. 14 team league, starting over from scratch this year but will be two keepers.

Thinking about Dallas' front line, do you consider Darren McFadden a first round pick now?

Half said yes, half said no. I said hell no, not with my first round pick (12). What say you all?

Your first round pick should be someone who is a proven commodity. The definition of "proven commodity" will vary per person, but arguably a top 10 producer in 2014 who is in the same team, scheme, coach, injury-free, etc would fit the bill.

You definitely don't want to be speculating in the first two rounds. It's bad enough when you pick a proven commodity (Graham last year) and he busts miserably.

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Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004

Spoeank posted:

I'm doing an NFL.com league for the first time and I've never seen such dog poo poo rankings :stare:



NFL.com is poo poo for everything fantasy related, heeding this advice Will Help You.

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004
I have to read up on this MFL business because i have no fucks idea what it is.

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004

Arctic Baldwin posted:

n: had my first draft of the year yesterday and keep staring at my lineup
v: when does the season start?!

When your RB2 goes down in the preason with a knee injury.

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004

Doltos posted:

I need a name for my team that involves JPP's finger but I'm coming up blank.

Go see the Team Name thread for some inspiration.

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004

Forever_Peace posted:

"Hard Counting"


In other "Kenny Stills is criminally underrated" news, 100% (literally all) of the rankings on fantasypros consider him to be better than his ADP (of wr70).

I really just don't understand why Stills just keeps floating under the radar.

A couple reasons:

- I forgot exactly what kind of wideout Stills is, but remember that Tanny cannot accurately throw the long ball. He is esssentially a younger Alex Smith until he proves us differently. Roethlisberger made Mike Wallace a fantasy stud; in Miami he was worthless. If Stills is a burner, avoid. If he's more a possession receiver, then he has more potential.
- He is not Miami's WR1. Jarvis Landry is. This could obviously change but that's what it is right now.

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004

Prophecy120 posted:

As someone who is pretty dead-set on waiting as long as possible on QBs, can anyone talk me out of drafting Eli Manning or Ryan Tannehill? 4 point passing league.

They are both underrated QBs from last year (#9 and #10 in QB ranking on ESPN standard leagues), both have more weapons than they did last year, and both are going well into the 100's. Manning now has a full year of Odel Beckham making one handed TD catches and Tannehill has his legs for an extra 40 to 60 rushing yards a game. I think the risk of either of them busting is well worth the ADP. Thoughts?

I would take Eli over Tanny with no qualms. Eli has a better deep ball.

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004

Metapod posted:

That makes it palatable to take him 1.01 imo

Only in .5 or 1ppr though.

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004

Benne posted:

Joseph Randle is the JAGiest of JAGs and I don't think the O-line will elevate him too much. He's going to be ludicrously expensive in a month.

There is something called the Snowshoes Moreno effect, you know

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004

RisqueBarber posted:

I had the 8th pick(12 teams) and took Lynch in the first then Luck on the turn and I was pretty happy with that.

Who are your wideouts?

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004

Franks Happy Place posted:

Dez Bryant isn't 30 and played football last year

I'm struggling to reconcile the AP scenario. Some see his 2014 as a year in which he got older. I'm leaning towards it being a year that he didn't expose his body to the rigors of the an NFL season. So you can't look at his age in the same light as data that historically assumes that 30-year old RBs played in their 29th year.

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004

Metapod posted:

Please post his team if he goes through with it

I really miss Toby Gerhart for this sort of thing.

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004

Gyshall posted:

Watch that gif again. Instead of going through the hole blocked for him, he bounces to the outside and ends up out of bounds. Just one example, but watching him last year was extremely frustrating - he did this often.


That plan looks like a planned counter to me. (from QB perspective) QB fakes left, switches ball to the right, McCoy takes his fake step left before turning right and heads straight to the 8 hole. Even the RG blocks away from the 8 once he meets the MLB.

e: already beaten it seems

- not that it should shake up the negative analysis, but Richie Incognito was a Pro Bowler in his time with the Dolphins. I think you just threw him out there for the shock value of his name.

- You listed Joique Bell instead of Leveon Bell at third

Suave Fedora fucked around with this message at 17:23 on Aug 1, 2015

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004

timmmmaaaah posted:


Shameful requote:

I'd personally keep Brown here.

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004
I'm picking 3rd in my RealTalk league snake and I'm pretty fine with that turn of events.

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004

Benne posted:

Bill O'Brien is a "character guy" fetishist so that pretty much rules out Rice and CJ.

If they make a move in FA it will probably be Pierre Thomas, who can still catch passes and would be useful in whatever Frankenstein committee they come up with.

Good call.

On a related note, nothing makes me :raise: more than going through the Roto blurbs and finding out about a significant injury via a secondary blurb it created. Case in point was reading about PT and Lawfirm being courted by the Texans for some Godforsaken reason.

Who had an early draft and drafted Foster? Inquiring minds want to schadenfreude.

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004

Ayudo posted:

Does Polk have three down talent? I seem to remember him showing decent hands. Don't know about his pass protection or injury history, but if the opportunity's there the price may be right.

Polk was a Pretty Good backup for Shady when both played in PHI.

He was basically Ben Tate when Tate had to backfill for Foster a few years back.

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004
Nfl.ccom is so bad I'm not even going back to fix that spelling error.

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004

ZIGfried posted:

Pulling my hair out over a keeper decision.

0.5 ppr

Already keeping Jeremy Hill for a 9th

Choice is between Travis Kelce or Joseph Randle both costing a 10th rounder. Both can be kept one more year for an 8th.

I originally was all in on Kelce. I really believe in his talent and think his role in KC will be both safe and prominent. News out of Dallas camp has me questioning my gut. Not only is Randle gobbling up first team reps with his competition sidelined, but he's looking great while doing it. I still don't think it's out of the question that Dallas signs someone and tanks Randle's value though.

Keepers have to be in by 8-15.

Kelce has zero competition, has looked great in camp, is committed to being "the guy" through the air. Between him and Jamaal Charles they will constitute the vast majority of offense that can be squeezed out of Popgun Smith

DAL front office doesn't hold Randle in high regard. Their plan this year was to use as much of a committee as DMC's health would allow and address deficiencies in the draft (didn't happen) and free agency (major wildcard).

roto posted:

Cowboys VP Stephen Jones is leaving the door open for the team to add a free agent running back if needed.
It's perhaps worth noting that Joseph Randle fumbled in team drills in front of reporters in Wednesday's practice. Darren McFadden (hamstring) remains on the shelf, and Lance Dunbar recently needed X-rays on his ankle. "We would have liked to have added a young running back to that group," said Jones. "The situation didn't present itself in the draft, so we didn't get that done. We probably missed out there. ... There's backs out there that I think still have some gas left in their tank, and if we need to go get one, we'll go get one." Aug 5 - 9:59 PM

No one is discounting that whoever RBs at DAL will be running behind a top-3 line, but that "whoever" is extremely shaky and may consist of multiple bodies being thrown at the defense. As someone else mentioned, you could strike gold but the safe money is on Kelce.

Suave Fedora fucked around with this message at 15:50 on Aug 7, 2015

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004

Dandy Kaiser posted:

I still doubt he sees over 100 targets, honestly. And of those, I doubt that more than 75 are legitimately catchable. I'm willing to bet he doesn't clear 70 catches.

e: If he gets over 170 pts in a PPR, 10yd/pt league, I will pen a 2,000 word essay to the majesty that is Andy Reid's mustache.

He was 3 catches short of 70 last year. I'd ask if you're sure about making that bet but you're already :toxx: and your toxx falls under 1ppr by the way as you didnt specify.

Also, no QB last year threw for more than a 70% completion rating.

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004

Leperflesh posted:

God loving dammit :negative:

I don't even care about him for fantasy, I don't have him on any team right now. It's just... poo poo, what a waste of talent. If he gets less than a year's suspension I'll be surprised.

And the Niners just cannot catch a goddamn break this offseason. Wow.

I was quasi-confident even after Harbaugh left, but I threw in the towel on the season when WIllis left. I'm expecting what Vegas also is expecting, a 6-win season.

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004

Dandy Kaiser posted:

I did the math assuming 1 PPR. 70 catches for 700 yards and 5 TDs would be 175 points and I lowballed a bit because I HATE TIGHT ENDS :shopkeeper:

Splendid.

I want to be as helpful as possible so I thought up some adjectives you are free to use when constructing your upper-lip epic:

brushy, bristling, vivacious, alpha male-shaming, gladiator-like, turgid

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004
^ do the 180. the adopt a walrus is worth it alone.

Leperflesh posted:

Don't forget losing Davis, Iupati, Borland, Justin Smith, Culliver, and Cox. SF's defense is an absolute garbage fire, and Smith may have actually done himself a favor by avoiding the entire season because he was just about the only good player left for offensive linemen to focus on shutting down.

I almost can't blame him for relapsing.

OK actually I totally can, hit-and-run DUI? Again? gently caress that guy, I hope he goes to prison. Being an inveterate 49ers homer only goes so far.

Oh trust me, I didn't forget. I just didn't care any more after the resignations starting rolling in like a hot wind.

Aldon Smith is a grade A idiot and maybe some day he'll grow up, before he kills someone.

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004

RCarr posted:

I drafted Montee Ball in the 2nd, and Gerhart in the 4th last year. My keepers were loving Percy Harvin and Michael Crabtree.

I somehow managed to finish in 2nd place (out of 10 teams).

Trading Gerhart away hours after the draft and snagging CJ Anderson saved my soul.

This year I'm keeping LeVeon Bell in the 3rd, and CJ Anderson in the 18th :getin:

Sup, high-round Montee Ball & Leveon in-the-third drafter.

It was a rough season for me but I escaped relegation.

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004

coronaball posted:

I'm in a new league this year: 12 teams, fairly standard scoring/rosters other than 6 pt passing TDs and small bonuses for 100 yards rushing/receiving. We also have 1 IDP. In what round should I start thinking about drafting the IDP, 10 or so? Whenever everyone else does? And is this standard IDP scoring?

Tackle:1 point
Sack:1 point
Defense Interception:1 point
Forced Fumble:1 point
Fumbles Recovery:1 point
Touchdown (Interception return):6 points
Touchdown (Fumble return):6 points
Touchdown (Blocked kick):6 points
Blocked Kick (punt, FG, PAT):1 point
Safety:2 points

It sounds like that league is just playing with the idea of going full IDP. Those scoring settings are not very engaging. Sacks are typically between 2-3 points and give elite defensive lineman a chance to complete with good linebackers. If you're not the first to pick an IDP (like Lavonte David) then don't bother grabbing an IDP until the end, then stream them the rest of the year until you land the magical Unknown Stud (last year it was Chris Borland).

Check the Goontier thread for our take on IDP. It's base enough to make IDP more than an afterthought, and we just amped up the touchdowns so that big plays IRL become big plays for fantasy.

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004

Marshmallow Blue posted:

Yeah, last year I had Cutler / Marshall, so most of the time it was a full bust. but that may have just been that particular combo.

Marshall was an unmitigated disaster last year. Think more Romo/Dez and Rodgers/Jordy or Cobb.

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004
The 49ers have dusted the dirt off the seat next to them and with great effort manage to lift a heavy hand to beckon the Jets over.

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004

Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

How does it compare to this scoring system which is a minor tweak of the PFF one done a few years ago? I'm looking at IDP scoring for the cheater league.


Just my preference here, but that system you linked to is over-powered. TDs in any situation should rightfully merit 6 points (including any TDs scored by an IDP), but to award 4 points for forced fumbles and sacks is too much. Those things don't actually put points on the board and shouldn't be worth more than a field goal, which actually puts points on the board.

Personally, I like IDP when they are not quite as powerful as offensive skill positions, but still dangerous enough to swing a game in your favor (thank u Robert Quinn for the memories).

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004

Doltos posted:


Whoever bought this avatar is a huge sperglord too.

You have to admit that is the most glistening pile of poo poo youve ever seen

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004
Let me add very little to this riveting conversation by saying I also dislike the usage of HB in fantasy discourse.

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004
I'm still mesmerized by that goddamn shiny turd

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004

MrSargent posted:

So last year was my first year playing fantasy football (don't ask me why it took me so long I have no idea). I felt like I drafted well, played the waiver wire well and then lost in the championship.

Here was my draft last year:

Jamaal Charles
Dez Bryant
Jordy Nelson
Rob Gronkowski
Ryan Matthews

DeSean Jackson
Tom Brady
Ahmad Bradshaw

I know I left out the rest but that was the important part. I'm trying to figure out where I could be smarter in my draft, but to be fair, my team was loving stacked last year and having a playoff in Week 17 killed me. I think my RB depth hurt because Matthews was injured early and then Bradshaw got injured before playoffs. Maybe I need to wait on QB a little longer this year?

This sounds like an 8-team league. If not, you should have no trouble returning to the SuperBowl. You didn't do anything wrong, sometimes luck goes against you in the end. poo poo happens. Fantasy happens.

That said, if I recall correctly, Brady last year was available in the late rounds if not on the wire. I'm not sure how much further you could have waited for a QB. I usually grab a QB around Round 6-7 and grab a backup later on. There is a lot of value out there in Stafford, Romo, Big Ben, Tannehill.

Having Mathews as your RB2 is to ask for disaster, but Bradshaw was solid for most of the year, so he was effectively your RB2 last year. Matthews is not particularly elusive and draws contact enough to where people think he's injury-prone (but he's not. Each injury is pretty much a new or freak one). Grab an elite RB1 if you can, and then a slew of potential breakouts and hope one breaks out enough for you.

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004
PRESEASON

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004
We're going to need a Rate My Draft thread going into this weekend.

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004

TommyGun85 posted:

I have and always will maintain that ending up with picks 6-12 are much better than 1-5. why?

because picks 1-5 are almost always used to draft running backs and its very difficult not to when you get those picks EVEN THOUGH historically only 30% of RBs drafted in the first round become top 10 players at their position. WRs drafted in the first round are twice as likely to reach their potential.

Basically, anyone who gets the first couple picks is too scared to deviate away from picking a RB even though it makes sense statistically. Getting a later pick basically forces you into taking the best WR instead of the 3rd or 4th best RB.

I am obviously a big fan of the no RB strategy with the exception of maybe the first two picks. It has worked out quite well for me.

Anyone try using this approach?

I'm picking third this weekend and if were not to have one of Charles, AP or Leveon I would be a shivering, sniveling mess up until Week 1, so unfortunately I will not be enjoining in this cruel experiment.

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004

Ty1990 posted:

Another thing: keeper league. Foster was a 7.

Despite that being A Very Important distinction because a healthy Foster next year at the cost of a 7th rounder is phenomenal value, I still think that for this season you need the TE boost the Olsen would bring.

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004

Cervixalot posted:

Had my first ever dynasty startup auction draft yesterday after months of planning and anticipation. After some technical hiccups, we switched to a manual auction system and it was a blast.

Here's my roster, how'd I do?

.5 PPR, 12 Teams
QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/TE/FLEX/DST/K

QB: Rivers, Palmer, Bortles
RB: Foster, Gore, Abdullah, Ivory, Matthews, Dunbar, Herron, Polk
WR: Dez, Allen Robinson, Landry, DJax, Larry Fitzgerald, Stevie Johnson, Marvin Jones, Josh Huff, Jeff Janis
TE: Gronk, Donnell
D/ST: Jets
K: Who gives a poo poo

We have another thread for team ratings.

Your RB1 position is dogshit. Gore as your effective RB1 may hurt more than help. You really need some luck that Joique won't be lead back for long and that the Jets take the training wheels off of Ivory's usage like they should have last season. Your WR2 leaves a bit to be desired but you have a slew of promising WR3s. Obviously strong at TE and if Donnell blows up early like last season, try to trade him away for an RB1.5 like Miller.

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004

89 posted:



1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1FLEX, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF

Pearce won, right?

My money is on Brad.

Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004
^ auction draft

:siren: Alex Smith just got released!! :siren:

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Suave Fedora
Jun 10, 2004

kiimo posted:

The last two posts are making it clear why I haven't won a fantasy championship in over ten years.

I have the hugest mad boner respect for statistics but the fanciest poo poo I ever did was a regression analysis and I probably couldn't do it again if you held a gun to my head. Seriously, you guys are doing work in improving Beersheets, and that's awesome.

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