Fantasy Football 2015: Value Based Guessing

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Armchair Quarterback > Fantasy Football 2015: Value Based Guessing

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Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

I can't believe how many people are scared off by ODB. In PPR leagues, I think he's worth considering at 1.01.

# ¿ Aug 9, 2015 21:06

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# ¿ May 15, 2024 22:28

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

ODB is completely unstoppable. It's hard to get any better than that. Being the best player in the league is definitely within his range of outcomes, so yeah I'm going to consider him at 1.01.

# ¿ Aug 9, 2015 21:56

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

I hope the Chris Johnson signing brings Ellington's ADP down a little so I can easily get him in every league.

# ¿ Aug 18, 2015 00:02

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Always draft a Kubiak RB.

# ¿ Aug 18, 2015 01:44

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Remember the last time Kubiak turned to a dude who went undrafted to lead his backfield and then turned that guy into the best RB in the league? And then last year he plugs a 5'8" 29-year-old career backup player into his system and gets him 1500 yards?

Seriously always draft a Kubiak RB.

# ¿ Aug 18, 2015 01:58

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Pfft. "Minimizing risk" only gets you so far. You have to adapt quickly in this game and half of the fun for me is being willing to go out on a limb for certain guys. RBs are just inherently risky to begin with. Even Eddie Lacy could wind up getting a high ankle sprain and become a liability. But when I look at CJA's three-down ability and Kubiak's excellent running games over the last several years, I see a guy who could wind up being the #1 RB at the end of the year. I have zero problem taking a player like that in the first.

# ¿ Aug 18, 2015 04:41

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

The new staff seems highest on rookie Karlos Williams. They might not rely on him for week 1 if McCoy missed it but over the long haul, he's the non-Fred Jackson guy to remember, I believe. Of course Fred Jackson is still the guy to pick up if McCoy misses any time.

# ¿ Aug 19, 2015 08:00

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Doltos posted:

Pick 2 out of the 3: Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green, Jordie Nelson

I'm leaning towards Megatron and Green but I feel like Nelson and Green.

Green/Megatron

Their team''s passing games are still centered around them. I could easily see Jordy getting a little less this season with the Packers going to more of a trio with him/Cobb/Adams.

# ¿ Aug 20, 2015 00:23

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

LmaoTheKid posted:

PPR, who goes after Brown? Julio, Dez, DT?

I'm sitting at 8 in PPR and our league loves QBs and RBs.

Kind of leaning Julio but Dez owns.

ODB

# ¿ Aug 22, 2015 03:29

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Mikey Purp posted:

I'm picking second in a 12 team 1PPR league. With everything else being standard, I'm really considering either Brown or Gronk with my first round pick. That jives with this thread, right?

That's the way to roll, I say. I want as many elite pass catchers on my PPR teams as possible.

# ¿ Aug 22, 2015 23:19

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

The Browns may be a punchline but they still have a pretty great line for run blocking. I wouldn't be surprised if there's real value to that backfield. Still think Duke has potential in PPR but in standard, I'd lean Crowell.

# ¿ Aug 30, 2015 06:59

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Am I the only one who finds all the Owen Daniels hype hilarious? Everyone is targeting him at this point. So many people are going to be disappointed.

# ¿ Sep 1, 2015 23:20

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Dandy Kaiser posted:

I don't think he's any worse of a gamble than any of the other bottom-draft TEs. I'd take a crack at Peyton's TE or Daniels in a Kubiak offense before a few of the guys down there, and he's both. Eifert, Daniels, and Miller are all fine (probably in that order). TEs are stupid anyway.

But he's not a bottom of the draft guy. FFPC has his ADP in the 7th or 8th. The Peyton/Kubiak TE narrative combined with the uncertainty over TEs has inflated his value immensely to the point where people are pouncing on him ahead of time and almost assuredly loving themselves over in the process.

# ¿ Sep 1, 2015 23:40

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

I like both Boldin and Torrey Smith, who the Niners gave $22M guaranteed, as late round value picks. I expect the Niners to throw more this year since their defense won't be able to control the clock and they ought to be playing from behind a lot more. Boldin saw 130 targets last year and Crabtree/Stevie combined for 158. There's real potential for value there.

# ¿ Sep 2, 2015 00:13

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Abugadu posted:

The only reason to be gunshy about Daniels is his injury history.

Peyton makes TEs great. He made Jacob Tamme look like a loving all-pro. Tons of red-zone targets on top of the regular production.

Combine that with Daniels being the head coach's favorite, and the pieces are there for an incredible steal in the draft after the 8th round. It might almost be worth an unheard of TE handcuff in V.Green, if the injury thing is what's holding you back on it.

Daniels was around a TE6-10 with the Texans, I think he can be a TE2-6 with the Broncos if he's healthy.

Daniels had Kubiak last year and he still finished as TE18 with a 48/527/4 line. And that all pro, Jacob Tamme? Last time he had a role in Peyton's offense, he was TE26 with a 52/555/2 line. Peyton put up great numbers with Dallas Clark and Julius Thomas because those guys are great players. But expecting him to make magic with Daniels is a bit much, I think. An older Owen Daniels isn't going to win those 1-on-1 matchups Julius could. And Virgil Green is going to get his share of snaps as the superior blocker.

Honestly I just don't see it. I think he's a trap player at this point. A middling TE2, which should be decent enough at the start of the season if you're streaming TEs, but that's about it. Even if you're waiting until the last pick of the draft, I'd rather take Richard Rogers, who'll be an every-down TE on a better QB's team. Or even Daniels' replacement in Baltimore, Crockett Gillmore.

# ¿ Sep 2, 2015 03:13

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

It's not a crazy idea but personally I wouldn't bother with Cruz. Patellar tendon tears are pretty much game-changers for WRs and I don't expect Cruz to ever regain pre-injury form.

# ¿ Sep 3, 2015 05:53

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

nrr posted:

i just got offered Cruz for Allen Robinson straight up. I'm guessing I should politely decline.

I would. The Jags are still garbage but Robinson is a popular breakout candidate. He was quietly on pace for ~80 catches last year before his injury and reports on him from OTAs/training camp have been glowing.

# ¿ Sep 3, 2015 07:10

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Its Miller Time posted:

I've changed the draft date of my redraft fantasy football league to Monday 9/7 at 8:30PM ET.

To reiterate, it is a $50 buy in, 12 teams ESPN, 2/3/1 RB/WR/flex, 1 PPR and 6 PPPTD. Winner nets a cool $500. I do a brief commentary every week that I've been told is funny. This has garnered praise from several highly respected sources including my girlfriend and people on the internet such as Noted Fantasy Football Player Amergin:

Thread with leaguesafe and ESPN links: http://forums.somethingawful.com/sh...0#post449543454

We have 7/10 or 12. I'll drop it to 10 people and add a flex position if we can't fill 12. Do your goonly patriotic duty and join .

This is a good league and yes the right link is: http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3739014

As the reigning champ, I demand more challengers.

# ¿ Sep 6, 2015 21:50

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

SeannieDarko posted:

Okay I need a TE because Ertz is hurt and I don't trust him anyways. .5PPR. Best available?

Jordan Reed
Larry Donnell
Josh Hill
Charles Clay
Ladarius Green
Coby Fleener

I'm leaning Clay or Reed. Benches are really short with no waiver period. I really have to just last 4 weeks because I plan on picking up Antonio Gates when he's off suspension.

Who should I grab?

I like Reed there. Fleener should also offer a decent ceiling for a streamer TE.

Another TE I like to emerge out of nowhere is Crockett Gillmore. An athletic second-year player, he's the starter in Baltimore and Marc Trestman likes to use his TEs. He could open the season as the #2 target for the Ravens with Perriman hurting.

# ¿ Sep 6, 2015 23:02

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

nrr posted:

so james jones is available in my ppr league. is it worth dropping stevie Johnson, kendall wright, danny woodhead or isiah crowell for him?

Nope those are all better players than him.

# ¿ Sep 7, 2015 05:59

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

I'll be the contrarian and say I think Watkins has Top 15 upside. His rookie season was overshadowed by Evans/ODB but his talent is still great and he did well for himself on ~130 targets with nearly a third of them uncatchable. He's been the MVP of Bills camp, to the point that the Bills are now playing games and refused to show him off in the preseason. I think he makes a jump this year and sees the ~130 targets again while doing a lot more with them this year.

# ¿ Sep 8, 2015 02:18

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

RVProfootballer posted:

No Rex Ryan WR has had a 1,000 yard season. Tyrod Taylor is very likely a downgrade from Orton. Lesean McCoy is going to be the focal point of the offense. The Bills defense is going to keep them in close games, so they aren't going to start slinging the ball a ton very often. Charles Clay should get more targets than Scott Chandler did. The talent is 100% there with Watkins, but that is a crushing situation for any WR.

He's the best player on the team who can separate at will and make plays after the catch. He doesn't need great QB play to put up fantasy numbers and I'm not sure Taylor is a downgrade from last year. Rex falls with love with certain concepts on offense and the way they've been hiding him this preseason, I believe they want to feature him a ton in the passing game. Everyone writes him off because of the situation but I believe he has much more upside than people give him credit for at the moment.

# ¿ Sep 8, 2015 02:45

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

365 Nog Hogger posted:

Anyone got some advice for my bottom of the barrel TE scrapings? Picked up D Allen at the end of my work draft but for some reason everyone else drafted like 2-3 TE's, so my options are grim. Should I swap Allen for a maybe not totally useless week 1 Richard Rodgers given that BUF was stingiest with TE last year while CHI was the opposite?
To make it more fun I'm starting Luck and my opponent is starting A-Rod

Richard Rodgers is a decent option. Allen is the better player and has the same role (red zone option) but Rodgers has less competition for looks probably. Choosing between him and Allen is basically a coinflip as the only way either is valuable is if they score a TD. Another unknown guy that I really like is Crockett Gillmore in Baltimore. Baltimore has no depth at pass catcher with a bunch of JAGs at WR after Steve Smith with Perriman hurting at the moment. Gillmore is a good athlete who plays aggressively and knows how to use his strength to his advantage. Marc Trestman loves using his TEs so Gillmore could wind up being the #2 option in that offense.

# ¿ Sep 9, 2015 23:53

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Forever_Peace posted:

Phoneposting but how have Russel's top targets performed since he was drafted?

I get the sense that their passing game is just not high volume enough to be very fantasy relevant.

Lockett has been awesome to watch on returns though. Should be good for SEA in actual football.

Wilson's passing attempts have gone up every year and he has yet to have anyone as talented as Lockett to throw to. I liken this to when they picked up Percy Harvin. They wanted to be excited about him but never could utilize him as much as they wanted to. Lockett offers more as a route runner but I think he could wind up filling a similar role to what they envisioned for Harvin. He can work out of the slot, make plays in the open field after the catch, and also get past the defense for a long score (and Wilson sure is a fan of those).

I think Wilson got himself a new toy and he's going to play with it.

# ¿ Sep 10, 2015 02:02

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

pmchem posted:

I've heard that line applied to literally every SEA pass catcher of the last 2-3 years and it's always been wrong.

Don't roster him then if you think he's another Doug Baldwin. But Wilson has grown as a player since his rookie year and his responsibilities as a passer have increased each year. Lockett was crazy productive in college, is probably already the most talented WR on the team, and I think he fills a role the Seahawks want to utilize. They match up well in my eyes and there's legit sleeper appeal there.

Tiptoes fucked around with this message at 02:49 on Sep 10, 2015

# ¿ Sep 10, 2015 02:43

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

nrr posted:

am I better off dumping Owen Daniels and picking up Richard Rogers in an nfl standard scoring league?

I would do this. I like the younger athlete playing for the better QB.

# ¿ Sep 11, 2015 01:47

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Who says no to this trade in PPR: Greg Olson for Martavis Bryant? The guy with Bryant has Ertz/Ebron as his TEs right now.

# ¿ Sep 18, 2015 00:50

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Forever_Peace posted:

1ppr I like Olsen by a significant margin.

Really? I've done a complete 180 on him since the draft. Don't think I can trust the Carolina passing game at all and I don't believe he'll be nearly the advantage over the average TE I thought he'd be. I love Bryant's weekly upside and think that'll make a much larger difference in my lineup.

# ¿ Sep 18, 2015 01:22

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Okay stop me if you've heard this one before...

This is going to be Jared Cook's breakout year. :smuggo:

# ¿ Sep 19, 2015 23:37

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

SeannieDarko posted:

You don't say?

It's half in jest but I do think there's something to it and I've acquired him in several leagues. The Rams finally have a real QB and the change from Brian Schottenheimer to Frank Cignetti at OC could be pretty big. Cignetti showed a lot more creativity in week 1 and they were playing aggressively too. They had 8 passing plays of 20+ yards against the Seahawks where the Seahawks only gave up 32 such plays last year. Cook led all passcatchers in snaps played and he's still a good athlete. He was getting open repeatedly against the Seahawks and was second among all TEs in yard per route run too. I think there's a chance he could be one of their top passcatchers and wind up having a career year.

# ¿ Sep 20, 2015 00:21

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Just because Josh Gordon didn't win me my championship doesn't mean he couldn't have won it for me. :colbert:

It's a move you make if you have faith in yourself to manage your depth well so the burned roster spot doesn't kill you and also you have faith in your team to contend until the playoffs. I can't do it with all of my teams but I'm definitely tempted to make a move for Dez in PPR leagues.

# ¿ Sep 20, 2015 05:29

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

RVProfootballer posted:

More value at this point: Matt Jones or Ronnie Hillman? CJ Anderson is awful and Alfred Morris is not, but it's looking like the Washington run game is going to be a lot more productive than Denver's. Take the guy with the better shot at winning the job?

I prefer Jones. Probably the best runner on the better running team.

# ¿ Sep 21, 2015 23:39

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

SurgicalOntologist posted:

Hmm.. got offered Phillip Rivers and Brandin Cooks for Emmanuel Sanders. I'm currently starting Bradford at QB so it would be an upgrade. Still, this is a reject, right? Cooks-Sanders seems like a nice buy low/sell high combo but it's still a downgrade, and I can stream QBs.

I agree with your assessment. Sanders>Cooks and a non-elite QB should never swing a trade really. You can stream QBs like you said.

# ¿ Sep 22, 2015 05:36

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

How is Brandin Cooks a badass? I'm pretty worried about him, Brees, and the Saint offense. Brees is looking pretty old himself out there and the Saints have yet to prove they really know how to utilize Cooks effectively. He's nowhere close to WR1 territory and he doesn't even seem like that good of a WR2.

# ¿ Sep 22, 2015 05:42

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

LmaoTheKid posted:

Dion Lewis is the truth, as much as I enjoy the Billy 5 Aces hates RB fumbles meme, the kid's gonna do fine. I know I beat that drum a lot in the preseason but I'm more than happy to be proved wrong here.

I don't even think Blount hurts him and in fact might help by softening up defenses while they focus on Gronk and Edelman.

Buy low if you can because of the perception with Bill.

If you have Lewis, what sort of talents are you saying No to if offered in a trade? I'm making moves this week and in one PPR league, I'm tempted to offer Abdullah for Lewis and Christine Michael. At least I think that's the most likely move on my end that could get accepted for him and I'm also kinda worried I'm not offering enough.

# ¿ Sep 23, 2015 23:27

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Guess I'm a true believer then. He's just playing too well in an offense that goes into every game wanting to score 40. I think Lewis can be a real difference maker this year in PPR leagues. I wish I could get him for less than Abdullah but after thinking it over, I realized I do like him more.

# ¿ Sep 23, 2015 23:55

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

The Redskins couldn't sustain drives and a bunch ended quickly on turnovers. Then they got way behind and went pass heavy. The game script was basically "fail at every turn" so it was difficult for any player to get consistent touches. It does seem clear they favor Jones more now. Even his fumble was on a pretty nice run that would've been a touchdown. I'm kicking myself for starting him but he'll still make a nice depth RB for me. He'll have some real nice weeks.

# ¿ Sep 25, 2015 06:18

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

I think I'd rather stash DGB than Perriman.

# ¿ Sep 27, 2015 04:22

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Franks Happy Place posted:

Arians says Chris Johnson gets 15-20 touches even after Ellington is back in the rotation , presumably this means he's the lead back.

Hail Satan.

Bruce Arians can't be trusted. He's always thrown out hyperbolic comments and numbers when hyping his players. I would take these comments with a grain of salt and if someone else in my league actually believes he's a 20-touch player ROS, I'd be selling for as high as I can.

# ¿ Sep 30, 2015 06:24

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# ¿ May 15, 2024 22:28

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Who would you rather have in non-PPR? Dion Lewis or Lamar Miller+Sammy Watkins?

# ¿ Oct 2, 2015 01:44

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