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ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

Best Friends posted:

??

You've advocated and supported a lot of terror and violence, just in favor of the state.

Borneo Jimmy is a contrarian anti-American dumbass and an rear end in a top hat to boot, but in his defense (ugh), the closest he's gotten to explicitly "advocat[ing] and support[ing] terror and violence" in the past few threads was when he said

Borneo Jimmy posted:

lol people in this thread are actually advocating forcing disaster capitalism and economic shock therapy on Venezuela. If anything justifies the armed revolutionary collectives it's this.

Although I guess you could also argue that his support for the Venezuelan government in the current expulsions of Colombians is pretty much doing the same.

Dude's just a contrarian troll who feels obligated to defend everything the PSUV does. Ignore him if he bothers you, because you're never going to actually change his mind.

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ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

JohnGalt posted:

Can Maduro win the next election? Can he 'win' the next election?

Who says he has to even hold an election? Clearly the Bolivarian Republic needs a steady hand at the tiller though this period of economic war against Chavismo! It's just too risky to deal with the upheaval that an election might bring until the war is over!

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July
There's some nuance to add here though:

First, the reason this has been brewing so long AFTER arbitration is that it was only in 1949, after all judges in the arbitration were dead, that a posthumous letter by one of the American arbitrators working for Venezuela came to light, alleging that a fix was in with the "neutral" Russian judge allowing either a unanimous decision favorable to the British along current lines, or a 3 to 2 decision granting the British even more land.

Second, according to a 1989 agreement that followed Venezuela's refiling of an objection in 1962, Venezuela and Guyana are supposed to negotiate a solution through a Good Officer protocol mediated in part by the UN. The last Good Officer died in 2014 and a new one has not been appointed, leading in part to the current issues.

Now, this all said, if you thought this is all a political ploy by Maduro, you're not wrong! As the delay between the announcement of the fix in 1949 and the revival of Venezuela's objection in 1963 demonstrates, Guayana Esequiba has always been a political tool for Venezuelan leaders. This delay was very probably in part caused by the late transition from the Pérez dictatorship to a democracy in 1959 under Betancourt. And the Port of Spain Agreement, which put the claim on ice between 1970 and 1983 was brokered by Caldera, a leader of the opposing, center-right, Christian Democratic, COPEI party, but ended under Herrera, a member of the same party who may well have wanted to revive claims to boost his foreign policy credentials to contrast his party favorably against Acción Democrática's 1975 nationalization of the oil industry under Carlos Pérez.

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

Cliff Racer posted:

Pursue nuclear weapons I guess.

That would be illegal.

Not that that stopped North Korea, Iran or Iraq from exploring the possibility, but it would make them a literal pariah state in the international community.

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

Effectronica posted:

All of those states which have nuclear weapons have them legally, whether through not signing the NPT or withdrawing from it.

And none of those states violated or withdrew from a Nuclear Weapons Free Zone treaty to do so.

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

Borneo Jimmy posted:

Can anybody tell me why these psychopaths should be in charge of Venezuela?

I dunno. You tell me why the PSUV should be in charge.

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

Chuck Boone posted:

It turns out that Maduro was right, and closing the border with Colombia did lead to a general decrease in criminal activity in the region. He got the affected country wrong, though.

Yesterday, Colombian Minister of Defense Luis Carlos Villegas presented a report to President Juan Manuel Santos regarding the state of security along the border since the August 19 closure. Villegas said that over the last two months, the border region has experienced a decrease of 39% in assaults, 19% in theft, 70% in vehicle theft, and 84% in extortion. Between August and September of last year, there were 40 reported extortion cases in the region, compared to the six during the same period this year. Murders are also down 10% since August.

Excuse me but that only proves that Maduro was right about the wily Colombians. Obviously the Colombian paramilitaries responsible for the violence in Venezuela were causing trouble in Colombia, too, and they just gave up entirely once the strong hand of the Venezuelan army showed them what for. :rolleyes:

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

Cicero posted:

I meant real socialist states, y'know, the ones with the planned/command economies and a minimal or non-existent free market, which is what Venezuela has been moving towards with the various nationalizations (and is clearly what Chavez and Maduro were aiming for). Social democracies that have both strong public and private sectors are fine, everyone knows those can work ok.

Vietnam? I dunno if that counts though, since even it's moved towards a mixed economy since the mid-1980s.

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

Demiurge4 posted:

Can someone quickly sum up the core reasons for the shortages? Is it just inflation loving with imports?

Inflation plus price controls plus an absurdly low fixed "official" exchange rate severely constraining access to hard currency.

The end result? Consumers have "lots" of (otherwise worthless) money to buy things fixed at absurdly low prices and stores and factories can't get any dollars with their limited cash flow to import new stock or the raw materials to make it.

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

Logikv9 posted:

So the country is well and thoroughly hosed, then. How far do you believe the ruling party is willing to go to hold onto power as the country descends into madness? Is some sort of violent uprising/re-revolution possible, or will the country just crumble as nobody is capable or willing to fix it?

Granted, this opinion is coming from an outsider, but it feels like it's probably the latter. My understanding based on the fiscal and political situation is that there's basically no way out that anyone will accept. Even if the PSUV was out, there's no politically acceptable solution to solve Venezuela's money problems without basically relegating the poor to be as bad off as they were before Chavez, and, surprise, surprise, it's probably going to be very difficult to push anything like that through. I expect that either Venezuela turns into an authoritarian hellhole where either the current elites stay in power at the expense of the populous, or government basically collapses entirely under the Scylla and Charybdis that are popular political demands and an inability to get sufficient hard currency to meet any of those demands in an equitable manner, effectively turning Venezuela into a failed state.

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

beer_war posted:

From Caracas Chronicles:



That's Ismael García from the MUD photoshopped into an ad for the fake MINUNIDAD party.

I'd love to hear Borneo Jimmy's take on this. He won't say anything of course, but I'd love to see him minimize it.

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

punk rebel ecks posted:

Hardly. North America and various Latin American and European countries are still moving leftward. Things tend to go in cycles as the pendulum swings.

Please tell me which are the European countries that are actually moving leftward? :allears:

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

beer_war posted:

Latest numbers on CNE website say 110 seats for the MUD (107 regular seats plus the 3 indigenous representatives), 55 for PSUV and 2 still to be announced:

http://www.cne.gob.ve/resultado_asamblea2015/r/0/reg_000000.html

The MUD is saying they won those last two seats, so it would be 112 seats exactly.

http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/151208/mesa-de-la-unidad-alcanza-112-diputados-en-la-asamblea-nacional

Doesn't that basically mean that PSUV is going to try all out on pressuring the CNE to split it 1-1 to deny them 112?

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

JohnGalt posted:

The daily Venezuela news cycle isn't complete without Jimmy.

So how does a showdown between the courts and the assembly play out?

The courts refuse to recognize anything the assembly does, the assembly refuses to recognize anything the courts do, and the collectivos run wild all the while. Probably.

Oh, and Maduro effectively rules by decree as he ignores the assembly and the courts rule that he can.

Just thinking worst case scenarios here.

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

El Hefe posted:

Those aren't worst case scenarios, that's just exactly what's happening right now.

Which just goes to show you how badly off Venezuela is right now.

It doesn't seem like anything else is going to happen until either Maduro is dumped in 2018, Maduro effectively ends Venezuelan democracy by jailing MUD assembly members until they acknowledge their impotence, or the people take to the streets for something bigger than 2002. Because there's no way the courts allow a recall of Maduro.

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

Borneo Jimmy posted:

It should also be mentioned that right wing media outlets (like Vice magazine, which is controlled by Rupert Murdoch and was founded by a literal white supremacist) have deliberately covered up the assassination of a socialist journalist by the opposition, along with the murders of thousands of Chavistas by right wing paramilitaries.

Where did that article say that the killing was done by the opposition?

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

Hugoon Chavez posted:

Ignore him, he's a bot we programmed with a perfect replica of a Chavist brain, mostly as a joke, but also as a cautionary tale.

Oh I'm quite aware. The fact that he failed to reply to that simple question is, as expected, quite telling. Still, I didn't expect him to toss out such a completely worthless and easily refuted article. Usually he at least tries to throw something with a bit more "bite"/"substance" to it. Guess Venezuelanalysis is slacking...

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

fnox posted:

I know people are loving frightened about recall referendums, but now is the time and place to start getting really, really loving serious about removing Maduro, as fast as possible, and take back control of the country. I'm not sure if we're too late to actually maybe avoid the worst case scenarios, but there just won't be a country left to rule if that moron is allowed to be president even for just 6 more months.

* Assuming the CNE even bothers to certify the recall.

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

My Imaginary GF posted:

Taking truck drivers hostage and stealing their cargo isn't revolutionary, Jimmy: its communist.

Is this like when a person accidentally manages to get two bots to start interacting on Twitter?

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

beer_war posted:

Venezuelans are kinda famous for their names, yes.

As for Allup, both Alup and Ayup are common pronunciations. It's a Lebanese name, so there isn't really a clear-cut "correct" Spanish pronunciation.

quote:

Some parents relish the challenge. Gilberto Vargas named his daughters, ages 10, 7, 4 and 2, Yusmary Shuain, Yusmery Sailing, Yusneidi Alicia and Yureimi Klaymar. His sons, one 9 years old and the other 9 months, are Kleiderman Jesús and Kleiderson Klarth.

Kleiderson Klarth :allears:

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

fnox posted:

What about the loving medicines, Borneo Jimmy, you're gonna tell me that the pharmacies are hiding them just so people loving die?

That's a rhetorical question right? Because Jimmy ain't gonna say anything to refute you, and he'll just be back in a week or two to pull down his pants and drop another little nugget of PSUV wisdom for all to see.

And people will challenge him on it as if he wasn't a troll. Every time.

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July
I'm going to assume that our resident Venezuelan posters have been busy not-posting because they barely have get enough electricity these days to run their appliances, never mind computers.

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

El Hefe posted:

The amnesty law promulgated by the AN was just declared unconstitutional by the TSJ.

We are living in a dictatorship folks.

Has the AN yet passed a law that hasn't been declared unconstitutional?

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

fnox posted:

I kinda wish the AN would stop wasting their loving time and actually go through with impeaching Maduro at all costs. They're taking too long and are starting to look incompetent.

They can't "legally" do so because of those two missing members though(??)

Not that it sounds like the TSJ wouldn't come up with some other BS reason to delegitimize the process but I believe that's still the blocker is it not? Do those seats just stay vacant for the entire session then?

ComradeCosmobot fucked around with this message at 02:40 on Apr 12, 2016

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

Chuck Boone posted:

A couple of things on this:
  • Not to downplay the murder at all, but this was a state politician, not a political leader at the national level. I'm not seeing this story reported at all in the national news.
  • As the article says, it's difficult to separate an "ordinary" murder in Venezuela from something like a targeted assassination. Earlier this week, the Public Ministry said that there had been 4,600 murders in Venezuela over the past four months.
  • From the description of the event, it's very likely that Mavares was killed for his cell phone (he was walking down the street with it in plain sight; the attackers took the cell phone and then shot him). The description of this murder is unfortunately not at all uncommon in the country.

In short: this has every indication of being nothing more than the type of murder that is unfortunately fairly commonplace in the country. The man murdered happens to have been an opposition politician; there's nothing to indicate that he was murdered because he was an opposition politician.

EDIT: Also, the Supreme Court has just ruled another of the National Assembly's laws unconstitutional. This time it's the law to partially reform the subsidized housing program to give tenants outright ownership of their units. The MUD's reasoning was that the government was blackmailing tenants into voting for them by threatening to evict them from their units/not provide them with homes unless they voted for the PSUV.

The court rule that the right to a dignified shelter is more important than the right to own property, and so the law was struck down.

By my count, this is the 13th time this year that the Supreme Court has issued a ruling either striking down a law the National Assembly has passed, or otherwise issued a ruling severely limiting the National Assembly's powers.

I'll ask my question again: has any law passed by the Assembly this session not been struck down?

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

Chuck Boone posted:

The march this morning to demand that the CNE stop shuffling its feet on the recall referendum is going sideways.

The plan was for demonstrators to meet near the Bello Monte subway station and then walk over to the CNE building together. The National Guard set up roadblocks to stop this from happening, so the march isn't heading to the CNE building anymore.

The National Guard has also started using tear gas to disperse the crowd, and National Assembly deputy Freddy Guevara who is at the scene also said that they've been shutting rubber bullets at people.

Here's a picture of some tear gas at the march this morning:



This image shows a National Guard roadblock stopping protesters. I'm not sure where exactly in Caracas this is, but it seems strange to me that their planned demonstration route took them onto a highway (EDIT: I think that's the Francisco Fajardo highway, and it does look like it was the planned protest route):



Here is a video taken at the same place as pictured above:

https://twitter.com/RCamachoVzla/status/730435564122587138

And here are three pictures of the crowd as it prepared to set off from the Bello Monte subway station earlier today:







Earlier today, National Assembly President Henry Ramos Allup said that the PSUV had put up a stage and some stands in front of the CNE building where the opposition protesters were supposed to march to, and that people were handing out fireworks to the government supporters there.

Apparently, the demonstration is at Plaza Venezuela right now, which is also cordoned off by National Guard troops to prevent the protesters from moving towards the CNE building.

Sounds like things are out of control thanks to those pesky non-PSUV parties. Better put that referendum on hold like they said they would, at least until the opposition can prove it can hold a rally that doesn't result in its leader being pepper sprayed. Better luck next time, MUD! Maybe try again after January 10 of next year? :smug:

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

Saladman posted:

It blows my mind that acetaminophen is a loving rare commodity. I'm also amazed at how far the SC justices can stick their heads up their own asses. I understand a lot of PSUV people would lose their lofty positions if they started acting for the good of their country, but it seems like the SC justices have literally no personal loss if they decide to stop being evil.

Well they did rule that they can never be removed, so yeah, they don't.

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

Chuck Boone posted:

Is the state of exception in effect for May, June and July, or all of 2016? Or all of 2017?

Yes.

As you probably know by now, the beatings state of exception will continue until morale improves.

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

Saladman posted:

Now I get it. Your gimmick is that you're doing the retarded right wing schtick to counteract Borneo Jimmy's retarded left wing schtick.

No, his gimmick is lovely conservative "political realism" in USPOL, too.

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

GlyphGryph posted:

Did Venezuela ever have a "left wing purge" of the sort Russia experienced when the Bolsheviks took over, where they basically drove all the pragmatic/non-insane socialists out of politics in favour of those who would swear absolute loyalty to the cult of personality?

Not a Venezuelan, but I don't recall one in my off-and-on tab-keeping (since the 2002 coup!)

I guess you could argue that the purging of PDVSA was one in a vague sense, but that was more general purge of the opposition than an ideological one of party members (never mind that it was restricted to a government corporation rather than the broader political elite). I don't think the PSUV has ever been ideologically motivated to the point that mere disagreement with the party line will result in execution or exile.

I mean I think you'd have seen them declare a one-party state first.

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

El Hefe posted:

Maduro's gonna sue Ramos Allup for treason and usurping his functions, so now Ramos Allup is an usurper.

He also said he's gonna put his trial on national broadcast on TV.

Maduro is batshit insane at this point.

How do you file a (civil) lawsuit for treason? :psyduck:

Because Maduro is corrupt/a moron, I know, but still...

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

Farmer Crack-rear end posted:

I happened to catch Democracy Now Democracy Now Dot Org The War And Peace Report on the drive home and was not terribly surprised to hear them lobbing softballs at the Venezuelan ambassador to the OAS.

Democracy Now is pretty awful. I mean the headlines at the top are okay, I guess, but Goodman's "interviews" are invariably garbage unless you want to hear the interviewee's talking points repeated over and over. It's basically the left-wing equivalent of CNN.

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

Labradoodle posted:

Welp, apparently my signature is invalid, as well as Capriles' own. Those motherfuckers.

Shoulda checked to make sure the form you signed said "Distrito Capital" instead of "Distrito Federal". So really, if you think about it, it's your own fault!

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

fnox posted:

The revocatorio was a trap and the MUD willingly walked into it. They should have never agreed to this dumb poo poo.

What other option was there to dislodge the PSUV before 2019 that wouldn't have been overridden by the PSUV and the TSJ anyway? It's nice to talk about how this is a trap for MUD, but I am increasingly convinced that there's no way short of a violent revolution or coup that will get rid of the PSUV before the 2019 elections. And that's just going to make the PSUV look good too ("we were robbed of power through undemocratic means :qq:")

ComradeCosmobot fucked around with this message at 02:46 on Jun 11, 2016

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

fnox posted:

Demand the actual recall referendum procedure to start as it is in the constitution without this 1% poo poo Tibisay Lucena pulled out of her rotten rear end. Or, go through with the constitutional amendment while pressuring the TSJ into letting it go through, not with some dumb poo poo march in East Caracas, but an actually, honest, attempt to protest at their doors, stopping for nobody.

I agree that it doesn't help that MUD is showing its incompetent colors again, but I'm skeptical that being more competent would help when they have zero leverage to begin with.

They'd still have to hope that marching was good enough.

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July
Sorry folks, you're stuck with PSUV rule until 2019.

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July
And now the TSJ has another "reason" they can use to invalidate the referendum.

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

fnox posted:

I think I loving contracted Zika. This country just keeps on giving.

Just don't have unprotected sex for 6-9 months and you'll be fine. Other than that I understand it to be quite mild.

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

fnox posted:

It's been pretty painful thus far, I have swollen lymph nodes all over the back of my neck which has been giving me a horrible headache, joints hurt, I'm horribly tired but can't sleep, and my mom and dad used up all the acetaminophen when they contracted Zika.

I'll live I guess.

Could be Dengue or Chikungunya, too though...

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ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

Labradoodle posted:

On other news, a source is reporting that the Supreme Court is considering a motion to suspend both the recall referendum process and the parties that make up the MUD (i.e. the opposition in its entirety) due to irregularities during the signature collection process.

The endgame is upon us.

But hey, at least the Democratic Charter wasn't invoked! So it's all still good!

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