Powerball is 1.3 Billion Dollars

The Something Awful Forums > Archives > General Bullshit > Powerball is 1.3 Billion Dollars

Zogo: Jul 29, 2003

PowerBall hit on Wednesday, August 18th, in the year 2,986,151 A.D.
You spent $622,818,944.00 on tickets.

I'm waiting until the take home amount after taxes is over 1 billion USD before buying my ticket. I can't be bothered before then. I want to be one of those evil billionaires bribing politicians and coming up with stupid platitudes for voters to argue about.

Also going to buy a fleet of these: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...smart-taxi.html

# ¿ Jan 9, 2016 00:55

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# ¿ May 17, 2024 15:06

Zogo: Jul 29, 2003

Powercrazy posted:

Protip: if you win the lottery don't tell anyone, and don't claim it in person.

The winner will probably be a showoff going to the ghetto like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GStCcZUVOfU

Also, always carry $50,000 in a briefcase in case you need emergency $$$.

Waltzing Along posted:

Here are the #s for Saturday. I demand 10% commission of all your winnings:

1 2 3 4 5 and 1

I did 1 2 3 4 5 and 6 red ball in the simulator.

PowerBall hit on Saturday, August 11th, in the year 5,278,621 A.D.
You spent $1,101,280,354 on tickets.

# ¿ Jan 9, 2016 05:42

Zogo: Jul 29, 2003

What's the max you can spend at one time? Can I go into a 7-11 and buy 10,000 unique numbers? Is there a chance of a # being selected twice in one large purchase or does quick pick not allow repeat numbers?

FrankieGoes posted:

'Fraid not. 40 in 292,201,338 is still spectacularly lovely odds, but it is not the same as 1 in 292,201,338. You can tell they're not the same, because 1 is not the same number as 40.

But I'm sure the people that sat out of winning office pools and just bought one ticket because "it's the same single pull" totally don't spend the rest of their lives kicking themselves in their own rear end.

If a rich goon were to buy ten million unique tickets ($20,000,000 investment) they could get their powerball victory odds down to 1 in 29.

Not bad!

# ¿ Jan 9, 2016 22:24

Zogo: Jul 29, 2003

Chinatown posted:

whens the drawing

6.5 hours. 11 post meridiem eastern standard time.

~64% of the possible numbers have been selected so it's a good shot someone wins tonight.

https://youtu.be/HqcbgSpHMFs?t=27s

# ¿ Jan 9, 2016 22:28

Zogo: Jul 29, 2003

VendaGoat posted:

Let's imagine no one wins this poo poo.

What's the next drawing? 1.3 billion?

Probably.

Now I'm reading ~75% of the possible numbers have been selected. It looks like someone will be doing this in five hours:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3r5byXcQMGg

# ¿ Jan 9, 2016 23:42

Zogo: Jul 29, 2003

Black Baby Goku posted:

I'm gonna start a gun show and sell guns to minorities for one dollar and loaded with cop killer bullets. See how fast they change gun laws in this country

I'm envisioning an increase in local/state taxes and suddenly all the cops are driving around in tanks and terminator suits with that new $$$.

# ¿ Jan 10, 2016 00:04

Zogo: Jul 29, 2003

blugu64 posted:

and a 96.6% chance of losing $20million

If you spend $20,000,000 on unique tickets there's an 85.5% chance you're winning that million dollar prize. Score!

jon joe posted:

I managed to do something extremely improbable!

Match exactly 0 numbers between 6 tickets!

El Duderino posted:

Do these people just have no emotions? Like when they realize they didn't win, do they just think, "well shoot, there's always next time!"

People lose billions in the stock market all the time. It's all about perspective.

# ¿ Jan 10, 2016 05:32

Zogo: Jul 29, 2003

Concerned Citizen posted:

Twitter says no one won the powerball but maybe it's not telling the truth.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8y3_kH9nYcA

# ¿ Jan 10, 2016 05:37

Zogo: Jul 29, 2003

Is this now the biggest lottery in world history?

Winning a Powerball ticket is 500 times easier than filling out that perfect NCAA bracket thing.

nooneofconsequence posted:

https://twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/686070633080471556

Says no winner.

Dangerous Mind posted:

I'm glad it was snowing so I didn't waste me precious time getting a ticket.

You could've had the golden ticket!

# ¿ Jan 10, 2016 08:14

Zogo: Jul 29, 2003

Microwaves Mom posted:

Yeah there's no way I'd ever let anyone know I won it. Thank god for lawyers.

When I win and my LLC lawyer goes on TV he will probably be kidnapped and tortured for a few days before body parts are found across the country. :rip:

Inzombiac posted:

What special feature will your house have?
Mine would be a theater and a cinema. I'd have a huge library of movies and hire a local acting troupe to perform whatever they wanted.

I thought about that but then remembered the evil poor person building my home theater would stick a box of dynamite underneath my leather seat to explode and steal my hard earned MONEY!

Microwaves Mom posted:

Where do you even store that much money? Aren't like most banks limited to the amount of money you can invest with them?

This is 206 million.

I could fit that and much more in my basement.

# ¿ Jan 11, 2016 01:54

Zogo: Jul 29, 2003

boom boom boom posted:

Could they send a lawyer or someone acting as a representative?

Yes, in the past some have done that.

Samuel L. ACKSYN posted:

could you do the llc thing and then when you pick it up in person, just hire one of those johnny knoxville bad grandpa-type makeup artists to make you look way different

and maybe wear a fat suit if ur skinny

so everyone will be looking for a rich fat old guy instead of u

This is a good idea. Going to buy one of those very realistic masks that cost thousands of dollars. Maybe this one:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P_FJRduLYY

Also, going to carry an M60 machine gun and a cyanide pill on me just in case.

Microwaves Mom posted:

My old man messaged me today saying that if the lotto didn't win tonight to let him know he thinks he has some "numbers as a message from above"...

I thought even he was immune from this poo poo, but I guess when we're talking about a billion dollars everyone starts to get a little bit loopy.

I had a vision earlier today. A smiling, friendly old man came up to me and said that only I was responsible enough to manage this much $$$. I'm like Frodo and the ring in LOTR.

# ¿ Jan 11, 2016 02:03

Zogo: Jul 29, 2003

OctoberBlues posted:

Also, say it ends up being $1.5 billion or so. What would you actually get if you took cash after all of the taxes and whatnot? like $500 million? Hardly worth it imo

Let's get down to brass tacks. According to my calculations EV is finally in positive territory (even after the gov't/lottery fat cats/political goons take 50% of it).

code:

Numbers	    Annuity	Prize - Cost	Probability	(Prize - Cost) * Probability
MY TICKET   $650000000	$649999998	0.0000000034	$2.209
5w	    $500000	$499998	        0.0000000856	$0.042
4w 1r	    $25000	$24998		0.0000010951	$0.027
4w	    $50		$48		0.0000273784	$0.001
3w 1r	    $50		$48		0.0000689935	$0.003
3w	    $3.5	$1.5		0.0017248517	$0.002
2w 1r       $3.5	$1.5		0.0014258623	$0.002
1w 1r	    $2		$0		0.0108719287	$0
1r	    $2		$0		0.0260960334	$0
YOUR TICKET $0		$-2		0.9597837679	$-1.91
				
			Expected Value =		$0.37

Translation: buy as many tickets as possible.

soy posted:

If I win I'm legally changing my name to John Smith, growing a beard, claiming the prize.. Doing all that poo poo on the arfcom post, and then buying one of these and driving it around the world until I get bored.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DoHBHEmv79M

Good luck finding me/murdering me, bitches!

Also my non-wife/kid family can gently caress all the way off, they aren't getting poo poo from me.

I think I could afford having a tank stationed at the front and back of my house.

Zogo fucked around with this message at 05:03 on Jan 11, 2016

# ¿ Jan 11, 2016 05:01

Zogo: Jul 29, 2003

Inzombiac posted:

How long do you have to turn it in?

Depends on the state I think. 3 months to 1 year?

That one guy who tried to cheat the system waited nearly a year.
http://www.dps.state.ia.us/commis/pib/Releases/2014/10-09-2014_DCI_SurveillanceVideoReleased.html

Video of him buying the ticket he knows will win:
https://vimeo.com/108469958

# ¿ Jan 11, 2016 07:54

Zogo: Jul 29, 2003

kindermord posted:

the best lotto winner ever was this goony bastard:

http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2012-04-03/news/bs-ae-bunky-lottery-20120402_1_lottery-winner-ellwood-bunky-bartlett-westminster

"A pizza franchise that Bartlett bought with the sole purpose of ensuring that he could get delivery to his rural home has beaten the odds and is about to celebrate its second anniversary."

Schroeder91 posted:

Really though I'd get something like this to live in:

That TV is tiny and has tiny speakers! That's a TV a billionaire gives to his/her cat.

Lolcano Eruption posted:

Serious discussion time. What would be the socioeconomic impact be if the winner were to give every US citizen one million dollars?

Extreme inflation. Massive immigration of cheap labor to do all the jobs no one wants.

# ¿ Jan 11, 2016 23:19

Zogo: Jul 29, 2003

kindermord posted:

also i was thinking about blowing 2bux on the next drawing but these simulations are really showing how futile the whole thing is so maybe i'll just buy a cookie instead.

That powerball simulator is old and broken. The odds are different now and the grand prize will likely give 10-30 times more than $40,000,000 by Wednesday night. If you have infinite $$$ and infinite time you 100% want to play now.

# ¿ Jan 12, 2016 00:24

Zogo: Jul 29, 2003

I just watched that Going Clear documentary. If I win I might be tempted to donate like ~$100,000,000 to one of those Scientology NPOs on a lark.

Anybody that salutes a giant portrait of a dead person is :waycool:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVeNWLgZdDE

Dangerous Mind posted:

Powerball up to 1.5 billion now... I really really really want it to rollover to like 2 billion. So next time we have 5,6,700+ mil pots they seem tiny in comparison.

Let's take a look at the math now:

code:

Numbers	    Annuity	Prize - Cost	Probability	(Prize - Cost) * Probability
MY TICKET   750000000	749999998	3.4E-09		$2.54
5w	    500000	499998		8.56E-08	$0.04
4w 1r	    25000	24998		1.0951E-06	$0.02
4w	    50		48		2.73784E-05	$0.001
3w 1r	    50		48		6.89935E-05	$0.003
3w	    3.5		1.5		0.001724852	$0.002
2w 1r	    3.5		1.5		0.001425862	$0.002
1w 1r	    2		0		0.010871929	$0
1r   	    2		0		0.026096033	$0
YOUR TICKET 0		-2		0.959783768	$-1.91

		Long-Term Expected Value =	~$0.71

BUY BUY BUY

soy posted:

I was thinking of starting a company that basically does debt consolidation. The rub is, you have to move into a dormitory (which you must pay for, but is pretty cheap and basic) and all of your expenses are tracked in detail and you must meet with a counselor once a month to keep things on track for repayment.

Basically a voluntary debtors prison except you can leave to work.

Also if you try to bail before you finish repayment then there's some contract that basically you are hosed forever in the harshest possible way.

Sounds close to student loans.

# ¿ Jan 13, 2016 00:23

Zogo: Jul 29, 2003

Buddhist monk, 61, attacked and robbed as he bought lottery tickets at Philadelphia gas station
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3395704/Buddhist-monk-61-attacked-robbed-bought-lottery-tickets-Philadelphia-gas-station.html

Microwaves Mom posted:

drawing is on wednesday right?

Every Wednesday at 10 post meridiem eastern standard time.

Every Saturday night at 10 post meridiem eastern standard time.

# ¿ Jan 13, 2016 00:31

Zogo: Jul 29, 2003

EngineerSean posted:

Your expected value math is off, it's still -EV to buy a ticket due to the odds of a split jackpot. It's still +FUNEV though to buy a ticket.

In order to do that we'd need to know the exact number of tickets sold.

Two articles with more detail:
http://thefederalist.com/2016/01/12/with-the-jackpot-at-1-4-billion-is-it-finally-rational-to-purchase-a-powerball-ticket/
http://www.durangobill.com/PowerballOdds.html

EngineerSean posted:

edit: also you seem to chop all the prizes in half but still deduct $2 for the ticket

That's a very conservative estimate of the annuity take home amount because the gov't fat cats/politicians are going to take a lot in some states.

Stefan Prodan posted:

Not to mention isn't the full prize only if you take the annuity, which

a) isn't transferrable to my knowledge, and your chance of dying during receiving it isn't 0
b) because of the net present value concept of money, the money you get later on in the annuity is actually worth a lot less

To do it perfectly we'd need the exact data on every ticket sold (and the number overlap) and in what state/city etc. and a thirty year look into the future!

No. 6 posted:

Isn't Illinois having issues paying their lotto winners?

Yes, they were giving IOUs to people that won more than $25K for like six months and owed winners ~300million USD in total. Luckily the grand prize isn't paid by IL.

# ¿ Jan 13, 2016 05:56

Zogo: Jul 29, 2003

Kuato posted:

I'll pay off all SA users student loan debts when I win. Or I might not. We shall see.

If you won this current POWERBALL jackpot 1,326 times you could pay off all US student loan debt. :911:

Accretionist posted:

I'm gonna self-isolate in a palatial 45th floor condo and hire a personal assistant to be a $40,000/year take-out fetcher.

Also, make them wear google glass and livestream 24/7 to ensure they don't try to poison/backstab you.

Applewhite posted:

Does the weight and distribution of the ink on the air-blown ping pong balls affect their statistical likelihood of being picked?

Probably but they use different balls and different machines randomly so it'd be something changing all the time. The balls have to be within a certain gram amount but they're not perfectly IDENTICAL of course. It's the same thing with casino dice being machined to be very symmetrical and geometrical. Compare that with average dice in a board game that've been molded and then put in a tumbler and then polished. They will definitely be biased to land on certain numbers and also bounce around a lot more.

# ¿ Jan 13, 2016 23:58

Zogo: Jul 29, 2003

Meta Ridley posted:

Let's make an assumption and say 70% of humans pick a number between 1-135000000, and the other 30% pick a number 135000001-270000000. While a true RNG will pick 1-135000000 50% of the time, and 135000001-270000000 the other 50% of the time.

A true RNG is NOT going to pick one 50.000000% of the time and other other 50.000000% of the time.

Even a conventional coin flip is not a 50/50 affair as humans are biased in the way they flip coins (too much spinning and not enough height). A typical coin will land on whatever it started more ~51% of the time. 1% isn't much but 1% is HUGE compared to some of these lottery probabilities. Many coins with damage will be heavily biased too.

Meta Ridley posted:

It would be analogous to say a range of 1-2 (Heads/Tails), with humans picking heads 70% of the time and tails 30% of the time while the RNG Drawer picks each 50% of the time. Since tales is being neglected, with a (human vs. a true RNG competitor) vs true RNG drawer, would the true RNG competitor match more frequently?

Or does it not matter since even if the human picked heads 100% of the time, they would win 50% of the time? I think I just answered my own question and was fallaciously believing a true RNG would have the advantage over pseudo-RNG in matching a true RNG.

It makes sense to pick less popular numbers.

Another issue with all these stat things is that we can't be 100% sure odd stuff isn't still continuing to happen in these systems. It's been proven that lotteries have been tampered with in the past.

# ¿ Jan 14, 2016 00:06

Zogo: Jul 29, 2003

T - five hours to POWERBALL launch.

boom boom boom posted:

That's meaningless unless we know what percentage of all tickets sold are quickpicks.

I read in an article recently that 95% of tickets are QP and they win ~70% of the time. And 5% are human chosen and win ~30% of the time. But who knows what those numbers are based on. There are a ton of stats that'd be helpful to know but AFAIK the lottery people aren't going to make them public.

WeLandedOnTheMoon! posted:

I saw a dude drop 300 dollars on lotto tickets today at the 7-11

I keep hearing these stories. I have a feeling some of these are buying for a group.

soy posted:

and now his chances of winning are virtually unchanged.

e- I was trying to do this math but I'm retarded

1 in 1,948,009 shot of the big one. If a big pool wins the million dollars isn't not even that much $$$.

# ¿ Jan 14, 2016 00:12

Zogo: Jul 29, 2003

soy posted:

uhh your odds are nowhere close to that with 100 tickets in powerball

a single ticket is 1 in 292,000,000 so 100 tickets would be 1 in 291,999,901 or something

so that's a 0.00003390412109284395% improvement.. for $198 extra over one ticket.

It was $300 worth of tickets so that's 150 tickets.

With your fuzzy math someone would buy 100,000,000 tickets but have a 1 in 192,201,338 shot of winning!
:vince:

That's US gov't budget math / hollywood accounting.

boom boom boom posted:

I'm surprised it's not 1.6 Billion yet. It hit 1.4 two days ago and 1.5 yesterday

Lottery officials are probably pocketing the overflow at this point.

# ¿ Jan 14, 2016 00:43

Zogo: Jul 29, 2003

A Man and his dog posted:

Lmao why are people mobbing the store it was sold at?

Crusty Nutsack posted:

lol why

The ticket could've been dropped somewhere. Cordon off the area and begin an intensive search immediately!

AND

Roger Craig posted:

They want to get the security footage of the ticket winner before he declares so they can steal his ticket

Mariana Horchata posted:

if the government was smart theyd orchestrate this poo poo around the time all the tax rebate checks get sent out.

It could be back up there soon.

Hector Beerlioz posted:

It's probably a good thing they don't let ppl max out their cards on the lottery.

That'd be

# ¿ Jan 14, 2016 07:07

Zogo: Jul 29, 2003

I hope all the MILLIONS of losers remember to never, ever give up. Tomorrow is another day and every $2 ticket purchase doubles your shot of winning.

Saturday night is very near!

# ¿ Jan 14, 2016 07:44

Zogo: Jul 29, 2003

gary oldmans diary posted:

dude just buying 1 ticket gives me infinity times better odds of winning than if i didnt buy a ticket
positive infinite even

It's possible a lottery ticket could be blown by the wind right into your hands.

# ¿ Jan 14, 2016 22:17

Zogo: Jul 29, 2003

A Powerball Reimbursement Go Fund Me Page Has Been Created for Cinnamon Nicole. Donate today.
https://www.yahoo.com/music/powerball-reimbursement-fund-page-created-235504618.html

FCKGW posted:

Lol, gently caress all you "rich getting richer" dumbfucks. Jewish business owner buys tickets for all his employees and patrons and one of workers wins it big. Literally the nicest outcome that could have happened.

at your premature/childlike optimism.

# ¿ Jan 15, 2016 21:46

Zogo: Jul 29, 2003

Germstore posted:

No one should take the annuity ever.

When I win tonight I'm going to take the annuity and buy a pony and donate $1,000,000 to Scientology. You can't stop me!

kindermord posted:

Campaign Not Found
We're sorry, but the campaign URL you entered cannot be found.

It appears she took her money and ran away.

# ¿ Jan 16, 2016 22:40

Zogo: Jul 29, 2003

Did the Florida person come out of hiding?

# ¿ Feb 4, 2016 21:57

Zogo: Jul 29, 2003

Powerball winners in Florida to be revealed Wednesday
http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/16/news/powerball-jackpot-florida-winners/index.html

"The Florida Lottery is holding a press conference at its headquarters in Tallahassee. The ticket owners will be present and "details regarding the winners will be announced," a press advisory says."

# ¿ Feb 17, 2016 08:04

Zogo: Jul 29, 2003

Say Nothing posted:

Florida man/woman?
I predict a trainwreck.

They're 55 and 70 years old.
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/florida-winners-historic-1-58b-powerball-jackpot-revealed-n520226

He's an engineer with Northrop Grumman. I think they're going to do fine. Maybe the people in Chino Hills will be the trainwreck.

Darth123123 posted:

Is this a perpetual thread now?

Powerball is every Wednesday and Saturday night until USA ceases to exist.

# ¿ Feb 19, 2016 22:34

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# ¿ May 17, 2024 15:06

Zogo: Jul 29, 2003

Not a Children posted:

My grandfather chased him out of the house with a gun and didn't talk to him for about a month.

I like to think this happens a few hundred times across the country every lottery cycle

Yes, it does. Youtube is inundated with fake lottery ticket pranks.

# ¿ Jul 20, 2016 22:28

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