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Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


If you can find another like minded retard you can cash out in one fell swoop, but I guess these opportunities are few and far between.

Good luck convincing the Government that you want to pay the ~£2m in stamp duty in Bitcoin though.

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Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


This was a decent read (The Guardian)

The salient point in there is the whole "what value does a CancerPill(tm) have, if the recipe to make a cancer curing drug is freely available and costs nothing to make?". People seem to think that all of these altcoins validates cryptocurrencies as the future of currency transactions, when in reality all it really does is prove that a few like-minded people agree on something - i.e. "altcoin139058 is the best!"

You might as well start calling Linux distros "a store of value".

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


So it's neither a viable currency or something you should treat as an investment? What the hell is it?

How do I stick some money down on jQuery, the JavaScript library? I believe in it.

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


Marketing New Brain posted:

Also when you try to sell it Warren Buffett won't yell at you to HODL and threaten your life on Reddit.
:lol:

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


The more I read about people blowing loans and life savings on this poo poo, the more I think that it is entirely possible that its a ride that's never going to end. The people in a position to manipulate the market to their own end will continue to do so, and it'll regularly plunge down before creeping back up again. It could be a thing entirely supported by nothing else by the leveraged greed of woefully misguided people.

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


Alpha Mayo posted:

My mistake is I keep treating this poo poo like a rational market, thinking people will realize that there are no fundamentals to these "currencies" (forked codebases) and that that will be enough to pop the bubble, leaving maybe Bitcoin and one to two others at 10% of their current value for money laundering/drugs. But nope, people are happily pumping millions into round two of ponzicoin less than 24 hours after people lost their shirts in it.

Maybe Bitcoin will hit 100K by end of the year. Logic certainly wouldn't stop that from happening.

And I used to think stocks were crazy, "Wow people keep buying them and they are probably 30% overvalued right now!" and then I exposed myself to the poop.
A lot of average Joes, "normies" as the woke folk seem to like to call them, are seeing news articles with big numbers like 1000% and they literally just switch off their brains and plough their money, life savings, loans, etc into it. How these people don't stop, even for a second, to consider that how they know about this incredible investment opportunity that has somehow passed Wall Street by, when they know nothing about investments themselves, is truly staggering but not that surprising. Pretty much everyone in the world, including those already well off, dreams of instant big wins - so reading stories about the meteoric rise of BTC and other cryptos is enough for them to jump in.

It's sad because ultimately with these big crashes there are people out there really losing their shirts, and plenty more that are completely innocent because their significant other blew their kids college funds, etc on this poo poo without their knowledge or consent. But, there are enough of these people around to sustain BTC and other cryptos indefinitely I think, just look at the story of GTAT. People don't learn, and the ones that do are replaced by others who haven't yet learnt this horrific lesson.

I've stopped thinking that it will collapse completely, now I just think it'll repeat the massive slump and slow recovery cycle over and over (it's done this several times already, and the wokes talk about this being perfectly normal behaviour), all the while crucifying innumerable people who are spending money they don't have. The only people who will make serious money on this now - ironically - are the people who are already proficient at investing, and/or are straight up manipulating the market anyway.

Durzel fucked around with this message at 11:34 on Jan 18, 2018

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


In so many words, yes.

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


There's never going to be any shortage of demand for gold. As a rule I think something that was hugely desirable as far back as Egyptian times is a pretty safe "store of value".

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


Alpha Mayo posted:

That actually sounds like a Twilight Zone version of Hell. You run one of the biggest heists in history and walk away with what was worth billions of dollars, but the crime you committed itself caused their value to crash to nothing and you are doomed to wonder the wastelands with people refusing to take your buttcoins
That sounds like an pretty cool premise for a Black Mirror episode tbh.

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


Bitcoin is always likely to maintain this massive crash & recovery pattern, I can't see any reason why this would change.

There are plenty of people in the world - an infinite number perhaps - who will read mainstream news stories of "1000%+ value since a short time ago" and be completely sucked in. Everyone, particularly uncritical people, want massive returns for minimal or ideally zero effort, as soon as possible please. News stories like this are music to their ears. They will do a bit of extra bedtime reading, see a graph where BTC was like $1000 at the start of the 2017 and is now 7x that amount, even 20x not so long ago, and think "all I have to do is get in now and I'll 5x my money in no time".

There are vastly more people in the world that are dumb enough to put everything they own into poo poo like this, even money they don't own thanks to near-zero interest rates on loans, believing all the hype about how cryptocurrency is this magical thing that has passed Wall Street by that makes average Joes rich.

What I'm saying I guess that it doesn't matter that Bitcoin is completely ineffective as a currency. It's "value" has long since transcended any practical usage. I can see it being indefinitely sustained simply by gold rush mindset folk, while the only people actually making money from it are - quite predictably - the people who already know how to work the markets.

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


Dog Jones posted:

I think eventually people will learn... Plus eventually they will run out of coins and even though they say it will be fine... who knows... also drug people will continue to use crypto as long as they can
Perhaps. I'm more inclined to think that individuals will learn, but people as a whole will continue to throw themselves in the meat grinder. You can't avoid news articles about Bitcoin nowadays, and there will certainly be a much wider audience that knows absolutely nothing about "cryptocurrencies" and are just seeing the purported 1000%+ gains.

Practically the only thing that I think will make it collapse will be ever increasing regulation (or the threat thereof), which probably won't actually come from governments looking to avert another financial meltdown, but rather from them seeing a revenue stream that is currently untapped. Its lack of credibility as a currency matters not one jot anymore. As it is BTC - and to a lesser extent the other cryptos (since some of them actually seem to try to "fix" the currency problem, albeit its a solution no one except drug dealers and criminals has been looking for) - are entirely speculatively valued.

I haven't touched the poop enough to know exactly why BTC jumped from ~$1000 to $10000 and beyond, but now that it has - and in such a short space of time - it's a very compelling investment opportunity for those people who are too stupid or impatient to invest correctly, with a diversified portfolio and a measured expectation of gains.

Durzel fucked around with this message at 12:41 on Jan 23, 2018

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


Is Coinbase supposed to be a wall of HTML code? :confused:

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


I feel like NFTs are the nadir of lockdown cabin fever. People (a certain class at least) suddenly have a bunch of disposable income from working from home and not going on holiday, and must buy something. Everything is the next GME. It’s pretty gross on a fundamental level.

Someone on a FB group I’m on commented that he’d just bought a NFT of a (bad) painting of Elon Musk. I went down the rabbit hole and it turns out he gets the physical painting anyway. So, as far as I can make out, he’s paying however much extra for the world to know that he owns it?

A friend of mine is heavily into crypto as of about a month or two ago. He endlessly consumes YT content that reinforces his beliefs that it’s the next big thing / already the thing, and as far as I can make out doesn’t even check to see whether the people pushing this stuff have a vested interest in it being pumped (of course they do).

He was telling me about some pump and dump platform new business idea support platform (Launchpad?) which apparently is like a Kickstarter for cryptos - as if they weren’t mad enough on their own. The premise is that you stick a load of money in to this service and are given the opportunity to buy these coins/tokens early at a “knock down price”, with the expectation that it will Moon(tm) and bring untold riches. When I said that this whole thing was built on the foundation of greater fool theory he just dismissed my criticism out of hand.

Apparently I just don’t get how altcoin pump and dumps are actually a sign of a healthy financial system.

Durzel fucked around with this message at 21:18 on May 2, 2021

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


Kill All Cops posted:

like lovely NFT funkopops

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CryptoPunks

You can see punks getting bought with this twitter https://twitter.com/cryptopunksbot
Is brain damage an undisclosed symptom of COVID? I feel like this didn't exist prior to it. Did lockdowns make people insane?

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


Orvin posted:

The crypto brainworm infected guy at work has pivoted to talking about various upcoming games that will somehow use the blockchain to do things. When I make the mistake of probing him with questions of “How does having ownership on a blockchain better than just on the game company server?” He just spouts some nonsense about the player having more control, and not relying on the company. When I follow up with “What good is a Sword of Awesomeness for a random game, if the game servers are shut down?”, he doesn’t really have a good answer for that.
A friend of mine alerted me to this - "Loot for Adventurers" https://opensea.io/collection/lootproject

Now, I don't get NFTs at the best of times, but as I understand it this website basically sells people a collection of nouns, verbs, abverbs and adjectives which make up virtual RPG drops. What game is this for? It doesn't exist. What about the stats, or the rarity, that's pretty important right? No, the project considers that "stats, images, and other functionality are intentionally omitted for others to interpret".

This stuff is apparently selling for multiples of ETH, $30k+ is not uncommon.

Can someone tell me whether there's a part of my brain missing that simply does not understand how, why or what this is? Are these things just a money laundering front, are people selling these things to themselves to try and attract a greater idiot who is seduced by the apparent appreciation in value to buy it?

I can understand the basic premise of cryptos, in terms of the whole "blockchain solves everything!" stuff, even if I don't buy into it or fully grasp it, but NFTs - I feel like I am missing something fundamental that explains why this poo poo is selling for actual real money.

EDIT: Looks like it was mentioned on the previous page. Sorry for the repost of purestrain madness.

Durzel fucked around with this message at 12:12 on Sep 6, 2021

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


A friend of mine is heavily into this stuff, and listening to him talk about it sounds like someone basically having a conversation peppered with completely random words like CAKE, TOMB, ATLAS, etc, like he's trying to activate me as the Winter Soldier or something.

Every time I speak to him he's talking some new token which is apparently simultaneously the best thing in the world that solves a problem no one even knew they had, or realised they could solve before (DeFi solves everything, apparently).

I keep hearing him talk about APRs and returns of several hundred or thousand percent. Where the gently caress does this money come from to realise those percentage gains? Is it purely greater fool theory Ponzi schemes on steroids and getting in on it on the ground floor? "Launchpads" are the key, apparently.

With regular stocks & shares I understand that gains are basically a function of fundamentals and speculation, etc - but those are "sensible" numbers. I can't for the life of me explain logically how these things create (out of thin air?) hundreds or thousands of percent gains in the space of weeks, etc?

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


Has there been any research into long COVID effects like believing that links to JPGs have intrinsic value?

Also, as observed in that Twitter thread - if you visit a website that links to an NFT, your browser automatically caches said JPG and probably the HTML that points to it, essentially duplicating the NFT at zero cost to the end user?

Basically what I'm saying is that Mozilla, Apple and Google are complicit in the biggest and systematic series of NFT thefts in history. Why won't someone do something???

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


The .NFO is a nice authentic touch.

How long before ISPs block access to illegitimate hyperlinks???

You wouldn't steal a link :smith:

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


People are making money on crypto. Average Joes are making money on it. Some might be making quite a lot of money (at the expense of others, of course). Pretending that they aren't isn't productive.

The problem, I think, is that people are dressing it up as anything more than basically ponzi schemes, greater fool theory and rug pulls galore.

If you digest any of the true believer YouTube content they would have you believe that todays token is going to be the greatest thing ever, because it solves a previously unsolveable but also indecipherable problem. How has humanity even functioned up til this point without it? The blockchain solves everything, and once it takes hold - tomorrow, always tomorrow - time will be known as pre and post blockchain, BC if you will. Also, crusty old fiat institutions are both embracing it but are also irrelevant to it. Crypto doesn't need those institutions and will make them and their old school ways obsolete, but it's important that they're interested, and it's a Good Sign.

That token the true believers mentioned yesterday? Mehh it's interesting, but it's not today's token. Today's token is really going to moon. Get in on it now and get your 100X gains. Where are those 100X gains coming from? Oh it's the same people we're hyping to, but they got in a bit late. The sooner you get in the sooner you can get your returns from the next wave of chumps savvy investors. Also your gains might only exist on the internet, because there isn't the liquidity to convert it into something that actually means something - i.e. fiat - or you might not be allowed to anyway (vesting periods, etc). Also, just disregard whatever vested interest the true believers have is completely altruistic and in no way relates to any positions they might hold or have been asked to shill.

NFTs, now they feel like crypto insanity squared. It's not enough that new word salad DeFi launchpad crypto problem solving coins appear every day and are simultaneously both nascent and obviously going to cure cancer, NFTs are like an insane multiverse joke. If someone had told me a year ago that people would be claiming that JPGs could be owned and had insane value in spite of absolute triviality with which they can be copied with 100% bit accuracy, I'd think they were mad.

Actually I wouldn't, because this train has been going down and down towards what I can only presume to be impossible to imagine - a singularity.

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


ultrafilter posted:

If you can't cash out, you haven't made money. You might think you have because number go up, but all that really matters for any portfolio is the cash you can get for it.
Preaching to the choir, friend.

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


tehinternet posted:

Because ultimately it’s all based on Tether’s fake billions, sorry, I mean completely legitimate billions that they 100% have. No, really. It’s all there, commercial paper, real audit and everything!

No, really! Completely legitimate!
There’s too many rubes for crypto to truly die, in my opinion. True believers see dips as an opportunity to buy more. They don’t look past that, because anything negative is FUD. The fact that everything gets crushed at the same time as Bitcoin does should be cause for alarm, and raise questions about how independent these coins really are, but it never does.

The only thing I can see crushing crypto in a meaningful way is regulation, or taxation. Everything else will just be treated as FUD and gains will continue to be supported by pure hype and retail money (aka bag holders who come in later). Given the glacial pace that Government moves - I don’t see this regulation happening any time soon.

In conversations with a friend Bitcoin is apparently predicted to be $100k by Christmas (it’s been repeated in this thread too), but that there’s also a “crypto winter” due. The fact there is a chasm between those two possibilities is totally fine though, apparently.

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


Xanderkish posted:

Oh my god, I just got to the point where the book points out that Bitcoin transactions are capped at 7 transactions per second, making it utterly impossible to do at scale. It literally cannot function as a currency with wide adoption. Its only broadly feasible use is as a commodity. A commodity with no actual value outside of what investors imbue it with.

Seems totally sustainable!
It's not a currency, it can't be. There is by design a finite amount of it available so whilst it can be divided down to 8 decimal places it fundamentally can't function as a currency for this reason, even discounting the limited transaction speed and whatever the panacea that the Lightning Network is supposed to be.

For that reason most people agree that it's supposed to be "digital gold", but as you say this is predicated on the belief that it is intrinsically valuable. The problem there is that gold has been used for decorative objects (i.e. treated as aesthetically beautiful/valuable in its own right) since ~4000 BC. Gold will therefore always be valuable, likely for as long as humans exist.

The problem with Bitcoin is that, unlike gold, the value is predicated on the sustained belief in it, and - critically - this belief is a pretty recent phenomenon and is essentially self-sustaining. You can buy gold even if you don't think it's beautiful or believe it should be worth so much. Your belief or lack thereof in it doesn't invalidate millenia of historical and cultural acceptance of its intrinsic value. Bitcoin on the other hand relies upon you and everyone else continually accepting and reinforcing the belief that is has value.

Furthermore, gold is gold. No one can introduce Gold 2.0 and try and supplant the value of gold, nor can they get anywhere in suggesting that "actually silver is better than gold". Altcoins exist for exactly that purpose, with new ones appearing all the time, all ultimately seeking to supplant Bitcoin at least in the psyche of ordinary Joes when they think of "cryptocurrency". It ought to speak volumes that whenever there is a crash in the price of Bitcoin that almost every altcoin price graph follows the same trend, even though they are all supposed to be uniquely better than eachother in some fashion, solving problems no one knew existed or actually feel in any meaningful sense.

NFTs feel to me like crypto madness squared. I can't even begin to explain them in any meaningful way. As remarked earlier the English language feels oddly incapable of explaining what or why it is.

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


jokes posted:

I think it’s interesting to see how bad at math tech bros and crypto idiots are.

If a stock doubles overnight (100% gain), then loses 60% the next day, the stock is below where it started. If it starts at 100, moves to 200 (100% gain) and loses 60% it ends up at $80. I’m sure a lot of them would think it increased by 40% (100% - 60%).

Also when bitcoin isn’t actually going up uP UP and is languishing around the same price having random sell offs it really takes the wind out of the sails of all these idiots because they don’t want to get rich slowly, they want to get rich quick (or more likely lose all their money quickly).

Talk to the typical boomer about investments and it’s very common for them to think that getting rich slowly is bullshit nonsense where you get bled dry. Either you get rich quick or you get poor (or die). How would they react to bitcoin not moving for 12mo?
Launchpads and ICOs are the new hot ticket. People just buying crypto and aiming for double digit gains per day, or whatever, is amateur hour. What the aim of the game now is to try and get in on some as-yet-unreleased "new hotness" thing, by basically paying a big enough membership price to be given the chance to win a portion of the ICO in a lottery, with the ultimate goal being that it increases in value exponentially once it gets released to the plebs. What is the point of any of these tokens? Doesn't matter. It's the hype that matters.

The entire architecture of all of this crap is hype. The problem is there seems to be no shortage of inflows of rubes who are - at least on the face of it - validating the whole thing.

Things can have disconnected value just because people believe in it, like art, but all this poo poo is depressing as gently caress.

As an aside I had a conversation with a close friend who is deep in all of this stuff, and he was telling me about some guy he follows on YouTube that pumps out videos every day who apparently is sitting on $38 million from a trade he did recently. I asked him why this guy would still be wasting his time begging for likes and subscribes for poxy YouTube monetisation when he could be on a boat somewhere? I didn't get an answer.

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


I thought it was $100k by EOY though? It's not even $100k on that graph by Feb 2022? Hey man, I've got 5 kids to feed.

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


So long as there are rubes to exploit NFTs and crypto will continue to exist, and quite likely become bigger and bigger because there will always be more who hear about it and salivate over the potential for insane gains for zero effort. And companies will get more and more involved in hilarious ways, because they believe they need to get in on it to be relevant, or for pure unadulterated greed, usually both.

The fact that Ubisoft jumped on the bandwagon this early speaks volumes. They’re basically evil incarnate when it comes to anti-consumer microtransactions etc, so the concept of NFTs is music to their ears.

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


Salt Fish posted:

Not only will crypto not go away it will become too big to fail and get bailed out by the central banking authorities to prevent an economic meltdown when theres finally a run on the bank.
I guess it’s possible that the bigger it gets the less volatile it will become, but perversely the less attractive it will be for newcomers. It could be that it reaches a critical mass where it’s neither growing nor shrinking in an appreciable way.

Right now if you just approach it as a way to profit off hype and rubes then the gains are hard to ignore, but that’s not a palatable investment strategy for a lot of people, particularly if the gains get less and less dramatic whilst all the whilst retaining all of the negative aspects of it (e.g. no protection, no regulation, etc)

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


That's just one of those single downward candles but really zoomed in. Nice try nocoiner!

Shifty Pony posted:

The really disgusting thing is all the crypobros in the reply chain blaming her for not minting her own NFTs first.
https://twitter.com/jakubkrcmar/status/1470681751144255494?s=20
If tweets were faces this is one I'd gladly punch.

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


Xanderkish posted:

I recently read this article by Noah Smith (or what I can read of it, since it's on Substack and I don't have a paid subscription) on "Crypto and the global financial system". He speculates that at some point cryptocurrencies might act as or obviate the need for reserve currencies.

I'm very skeptical of his argument, not just because the section I can read seems to rather uncritically discuss "stablecoin" and Tether, but also because, in the case of so-called stablecoins, if their value is pegged towards a fiat currency, they're not replacing anything. And in the cases where they're not, they're so volatile and hard to transfer that they lack practically, at least in their current implementations.

Still, I wanted to get other's takes on it (especially if anyone has access to read the whole article).
In a general sense it's hard to know what cryptos are supposed to be.

I watched bits of the recent deposition (senate?) from a bunch of pro-crypto people, and whilst some of them made what seemed on the surface level to be credible arguments - e.g. how web3 "democratises" access through shared ownership of the blockchain network (?) rather than the internet being "controlled" by the likes of Facebook, Google, etc I was still left wondering exactly what problem web3 is solving by doing this, even if you assume uncritically it does exactly that?

Also - to me - the actual world of cryptos feels nothing like something that is seeking to improve anything, rather that the participants in the main are just looking for get rich quick opportunities through hype and getting in before the next guy does, so you can get out and leave whoever comes in late holding the bag. They all dress up their projects in different ways with a variety of tech bro words arranged in different orders, but they all talk about how these things are supposed to radically improve something as if we've all been living in caves up until now. Part of me feels dense for perhaps not fully understanding it, but the other part believes I understand it fully and it's really not as mysterious and ground-breaking as its made out. The scary thing is that there's so much inertia behind it, and NFTs, that it seems self-sustaining even in the face of the obvious (to me) negligible intrinsic value of any of it.

Right now a friend of mine who is heavily into it is talking about starting their own launchpad, and roping in a bunch of YouTube crypto voices to shill it (there's apparently even a price list to do this, which should tell you something). From what I can gather launchpads and ICOs are basically "mad crypto gains" on steroids (for some at least). From everything I'm hearing it basically sounds like it's intended to be a scam, without that word actually being used.. a mechanism to make a load of money by duping people into thinking they'll make money too, but he's talking about it like it's an actual legitimate project. The crazy thing is it doesn't even sound like he realises what he's advocating for, I honestly don't think he sees any problem with what is being suggested.

Also - talking to my mate - he talks about web3 stuff, these projects, launchpads being Kickstarter for crypto projects, etc being like the nascent period of the internet, like if I don't understand what problems these things are going to solve in the future then I basically just don't understand? I'm kinda being made to feel like I don't understand why the first iPhone was such a big thing. Is this basically the trick of crypto zealots, to stupify people into thinking "maybe there is something to this I just don't understand?"

Durzel fucked around with this message at 14:07 on Dec 15, 2021

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


Xanderkish posted:

Not every participant in Crypto is thinking about how it's going to gently caress someone else and just doesn't care. Crypto and related scammery, if it works well, allows for a lot of self-delusion about how you or other people will make the money. Plenty of people think of Crypto as a thing where number only goes up, and not think about HOW that number goes up.

I certainly wouldn't trust the friend with my 401k, but calling him a greedy little rear end in a top hat is extrapolating a lot from a limited sample size.
Yeah, to be fair to him he's not rubbing his hands at the thought of rinsing some rubes of their cash. He is earnestly talking about it as a business venture, and fully believes in it, and believes that anyone else who believes in it will make money from it, and therefore it is A Good Thing™. The "what is it" part of the project sounds like its almost an irrelevance, and to be honest just based on my limited exposure I can well believe that VCs are falling over themselves to invest in anything that even hints at a blockchain or NFT connection. There doesn't seem to be an awful lot of due diligence being done with crypto-imbued or even adjacent ventures.

I can see how people get to this point. If you're lucky enough to be one of those ones anointed by the operators of a launchpad/ICO (I don't really know the difference) then you can make some money pretty drat quickly, or rather - number go up a lot on a website - at the expense of people coming in "late" thinking they will do likewise. In the face of apparent 100x+ gains - even on paper (there are vesting periods with these things, apparently) - I can well believe that people would be seduced pretty quickly by it, and believe that it's the future of everything. The logical next step from that is to be the one anointing people, like an MLM of sorts promoting evangelists up through the ranks.

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


The weirdest thing I keep hearing about gaming NFTs is how it will lead to some kind of transcendent reality where you can buy unique skins and items and such and have them exist and be useable across multiple games.

No one ever explains how this would actually work, either technically or practically. Like, say you bought a unique gun in Ghost Recon using Ubisoft bux or whatever-the-gently caress they're doing. How is that going to work in Assassin's Creed, much less another company's product like Halo or something else where it straight up doesn't fit the aesthetic (or make no sense at all)? What "stats" get ported over? Who decides on the stats from one game to the next, assuming it even fits with the whole ethos of the two games.

Also, who has a stake in these assets? The companies pushing these things aren't going to be doing anything with them unless they get a cut. If they're having to host the models, skins, sounds, etc for a given NFT, what do they get out of it post-purchase? Are they looking to just take a cut of the upfront NFT purchase for indefinite hosting and facilitation services?

None of these challenges are solved or even mentioned. I know that the value of these things are predicated on the belief that they will have utility that transcends a given game (or particular gaming company) but at no point does anyone explain how they expect these companies to work together, or how these transcendent "things" will automagically become portable between games, etc.

It honestly feels to me like one of those fantasies you have as a kid.. "wouldn't it be amazing if X" except where there are apparently intelligent people who think that just articulating the fantasy makes it real.

Durzel fucked around with this message at 14:23 on Dec 17, 2021

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


zedprime posted:

Yeah, the fantasy scenario here is like Star Citizen created spaceship NFTs so good, they reap the mint and initial sale, and then sell rights and documentation on the NFT to every other lame game that wants to ride the coat tails of the massively successful ubiquitous spaceship NFT so that you can fly your whale ship in your Candy Crush. It's so ubiquitous new games would never dream not letting you use your spaceship in it and the originator can still claim residuals on licensing or API support.
This seems to require gaming companies, or indeed companies in general, to collaborate in possibly unequitable ways, when they could just as easily not do that and do their own thing and have 100% of the revenue from their captive audience.

I think the delusion is that people seem to think that NFTs are some kind of previously undiscovered panacea for integration between games and the companies that make them, that solve any and all problems that these integrations would encounter - technical, political, financial, etc.

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


Yeah players naturally hate gated content. Content that is gated behind regular microtransactions is bad enough, but "unique to you" skins touted as speculative investments feels even more egregious.

Whilst I think gamers entitlement and irrationality when it comes to gated stuff is hardly healthy in its own right (I know people have been losing their mind that Halo Infinite has ~$1500 of skins you can only get with real money), when it comes to NFTs which intuitively feel like the companies involved twisting the knife even more I have every sympathy.

I am not in the least bit surprised that Ubisoft and Peter Molyneux are two early horses out of the gate with this crud. That ought to speak volumes about who NFTs stand to benefit most.

I basically want to punch each and every person in any meeting who talks about "digital scarcity" and artificially finite digital assets, because there is nothing about them whatsoever that is in any way consumer-friendly.

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


Protocol7 posted:

The only argument I've seen in favor of NFTs in games has been some hand-wavy poo poo like "NFTs are changing the landscape for gaming and beyond. Businesses and those who don't understand the tech will ultimately come around to being educated and understanding their concerns will misguided."

That's an actual quote from one of the people replying to the STALKER 2 announcement. NFT bros are always happy to thump their chests about NFTs, but when it comes to explanations of what the actual benefit is, they're nowhere to be found - just a nice "gently caress you, good luck being stuck in the past, loser."
They are also people who have the luxury of just trying to will this stuff to move forwards without actually contributing anything at all to it, or being technically capable of doing so.

It's just people who have bought into it, as investors, and have a vested interest in pushing the narrative in much the same way any proponent of a stock would be.

I believe that a great many people involved in crypto, NFTs and even meme stocks have next to no idea about the intrinsic aspects or USPs of them (even if you assume that those things have merit), they just see "number go up" and they're onboard. I've given up asking my friend why BLEEP coin is better than BLOOP coin this week, when last week BLOOP was going to cure cancer. It's easier simply to reconcile it as "number go up more, coin better".

Meme stocks are another more transparent example of this. If you venture onto discussions about GME, AMC, etc you'll find a bunch of people basically just parroting "gamma squeeze", "it's us against the shorties", "Citadel have to cover!" without the slightest clue what any of that stuff means, whether it's actually real or not.

We're through the looking glass with all of this stuff I think.

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


Xanderkish posted:

I was thinking about this with the Gamestop stuff. People were talking about how doing a short squeeze was sticking it to Wall Street, when the reality is that this was short squeezing a very narrow subset of investors, and investors rise and fall on Wall Street all the time. And yet so many people, including major media organizations, parroted the notion that this was some kind of populist uprising against Wall Street, when it was more akin to Don Quixote fighting windmills thinking they're dragons.
Yeah, exactly. It's dangerous thinking because you're making your investments emotional, which is most definitely A Bad Thing.

The idea that hedge funds are some omnipotent enemy that "apes" need to defeat is really, really dumb, even as a basic premise, and neglects to understand the simple logic that "hedgies" don't only bet one way. If there is money to be made institutional investors will bet whichever way maximises their profit, whereas apes will only buy and hodl (at least in theory, many will - or ought to at least - cash out silently when they get a resaonable gain if they have any sense at all). The GME short squeeze was a thing, but people think they are seeing it everywhere now, and are losing their shirts in the process.

It does remind me of crypto/NFTs in an oblique way, in the sense that people are jumping into things without any due diligence at all simply because that's the way the wind seems to be blowing, and at the promise of instant riches. The problem is the information they are consuming is not objective. If all you consume all day is pro-crypto evangelist content then you're naturally going to end up believing that their narrative is the immutable truth, as with everything else, especially if you've already got skin in the game.

Durzel fucked around with this message at 20:26 on Dec 17, 2021

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


Silly Thailand, no one spends cryptocurrency.

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


Maybe I’m being dumb but isn’t “showing status” predicated on everyone accepting that what you’re showing is “status having”?

You don’t have to be into cars to know that Lambos cost a lot, therefore anyone who owns one is likely well off. Same for Patek Philippe etc stuff (although fancy watches can be passed down so aren’t necessarily indicative).

For Bored Ape poo poo or other NFTs to be a sign of wealth or status it would have to mean something in the wider world, to the uninitiated. I can’t see how that could ever realistically happen when 100% of their “utility” can be appropriated simply by copy and pasting them.

If I copy and paste the most expensive Bored Ape then I’m just as rich looking - which is to say not at all - to anyone on the periphery as the “owner”. Only in the inner circle and amongst a very small number of people does that ownership actually mean anything.

Durzel fucked around with this message at 10:25 on Dec 21, 2021

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


We're through the looking glass. I thought it would take at least a few more months before we reached this nadir. loving washroom faucets... on the blockchain™!.

Since the blockchain™ solves any and all problems humankind has ever faced or will face, does anyone know what happens when you actually use one of these things? I'm assuming immortality or perhaps a cure for male pattern baldness at the very least?

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


Someone said it best earlier in the thread, this is what it must feel like as a boomer trying to understand something modern that is so alien to them that they can’t even grasp the concept.

The more brands jump on this poo poo the more I feel like I’m losing my mind. I mean it’s obviously in their naked self interest to sell “limited edition digital assets” or whatever the gently caress, so I know it’s corporate greed in overdrive that’s driving it rather than any true belief, but at the same time the more it appears to get legitimatised the more I want to reset this timeline.

Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


kw0134 posted:

A bunch of retail investors who were basically bagholders going into 2021 because buying GME in the height of a pandemic when most video game sales are digital anyway made out when it went from their $10 cost basis to $40. Good for them!

Redditors hyped it, but it was the real market makers who pushed it to $400 where a bunch more idiots brought at the nice price of $420.69 (I wish I was kidding) and there they remain, down 70% on their "investment" because diamond hands. It doesn't take Nostradamus to see a surging stock and scalping the rise and selling for a $30 gain per share ten minutes later, and a lot of algos made a poo poo ton of cash that way.
I kinda feel like GME is ground zero for much of what we’re seeing today. It was basically the perfect fairy tale rags to riches story. A bunch of people made a bunch of money really quickly, with negligible effort or due diligence, undermining The System and giving their imagined acolytes, hedge funds, a bloody nose in to the bargain. Even the media lapped it up, as a David vs Goliath story amongst all the dire pandemic news.

Problem is no one ever considers the bag holders, or imagine they will be one themselves. Nor can they grasp the concept that hedge funds don’t only bet one way. Now every stock that these animated investors look at is “the next GME”.

Crypto is that “minimal effort, get in early, fundamentals are irrelevant” sentiment taken to the extreme, and NFTs take that concept even further than that.

There’s certainly money to be made in all of this stuff, only an idiot would believe there isn’t, but It’s not built on anything and as such is extremely vulnerable to the bottom falling out with zero warning. Even GME, AMC, and other meme stocks have a floor price. They have assets and they have business fundamentals, even if they don’t square with their current stock prices. Crypto just has belief, and how much of it can sustain?

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Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


egg_dog posted:

https://twitter.com/toddkramer1/status/1476450669406175234?t=eNIPSY0Q8VCPSXgKnyfaGQ&s=19

All my, apes gone
Work sucks, I know
She left me roses by the stairs
Surprises let me know she cares
I’m willing to sell this guy a certificate of ownership to a link to a ZIP file containing the images for a 20% finders fee.

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