Middle East Thread: Clarissa Explains the Fall

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread: Clarissa Explains the Fall

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

Cat Mattress posted:

lol

Nobody needs the authorization of a bunch of spineless has-beens who have outsourced their muscle to America 70 years ago and are as a result incapable of agreeing on a common course of action or of acting alone.

They certainly have enough money to fund local enemies of a bunch of regimes. They don't run the planet like they did but they definitely are gonna hand in directing what a post American hegemonic world order looks like.

Shageletic posted:

Catching up with the thread, but hasn't this been debunked?

Ah here we are: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1233199

I dunno, does "could not corroborate" mean debunked when the NSA says it? The Trump administration calling it a hoax certainly doesn't make me think it's debunked.

Grip it and rip it fucked around with this message at 07:18 on Jul 16, 2020

# ¿ Jul 16, 2020 07:14

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# ¿ May 11, 2024 15:15

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

Grouchio posted:

Gee I wonder if Biden's gonna still want that nuclear deal to be feasible if Israel keeps blowing up Iran's staff.

I don't follow what you mean here. Why would Biden's desire for a feasible nuclear deal shift because scientists are getting assassinated?

# ¿ Nov 27, 2020 23:16

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

Grouchio posted:

Syria deeply dissapointed me in 2011 and now is going to dissapoint me again in 2021.

We all know that this conflict has been very hard on you + your GPA

# ¿ Dec 20, 2020 19:31

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

Throatwarbler posted:

Hey guys who don't you get rid of all the officers who are of the nobility and landed gentry who are loyal to the regime and have a personal stake in the continuation of the status quo, and instead let the army be commanded by bright and ambitious peasants who are technically more proficient at aircraft maintenance or W/E?

Everyone knows the Joint Chiefs of staff are made up of all the branches top aircraft maintenance dudes or whatever.

# ¿ Jan 26, 2021 03:16

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

Shouldn't we be redrawing the line? Or erasing it, since it separates us from nature?

Is this a translation thing?

# ¿ Feb 15, 2021 18:21

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

From the CIA's perspective, how is the fact that vaccination rates in Pakistan are going to trail global averages a loss for the USA? It's a horrible and morally repugnant state of affairs, there is no doubt, but how exactly does it damage American interests in the region?

# ¿ Mar 10, 2021 21:12

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

Zedhe Khoja posted:

Also even if it did it wouldn't matter. The CIA fucks up constantly and frequently harms American interests (both real and pretend) and historically is almost powerless against rival security agencies, even from tiny minor countries. But it's defacto is the secret police of 2/3 the planet because of American economic hegemony and the legacy of colonialism so there are no repercussions for being mass murdering clowns who are constantly caught being such.

So they secretly police 2/3rds of the world, murdering with impunity, but are incapable of managing the rival intelligence assets of even minor countries. That's quite the knife's edge to walk.

# ¿ Mar 10, 2021 22:00

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

Herstory Begins Now posted:

seem unbiased and definitely credible

Those Arabs and their manufactured genocide claims!!!!

# ¿ Apr 5, 2021 14:56

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

I can't wait for the US to get out of Afghanistan too

Grip it and rip it fucked around with this message at 05:13 on May 3, 2021

# ¿ May 3, 2021 05:04

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

Somaen posted:

I just wanted to get more out of you so it becomes very clear that you are really ignorant of the situation and extremely stupid overall, you can't really talk about this in-depth here or anywhere else, especially with people from eastern europe with personal knowledge of the situation since you seem to be regurgitating propaganda you've read that you lack the skills to examine critically. Ukraine is a floundering democracy with a jewish president where the far right consistently gets <2% of the electoral vote, that is being invaded and sabotaged by a hostile, far-right proto-fascist state which had to invent stories about atrocities by the Ukrainian far-right in its propaganda campaigns to justify the invasion and annexation of the territory. If there is any morally justifiable support for a state, this is it, the US is objectively doing good here by supporting Ukraine militarily and by supporting building democratic institutions.

lol loving dusted

# ¿ May 4, 2021 01:26

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

revealing of how in love they are with America's new Mayor

# ¿ May 8, 2021 00:35

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

Flavahbeast posted:

It seems like such a no-brainer, my assumption was that Trump would break things off with the Saudis because he would only see political upsides for doing so. He certainly was anti-Saud when he was running

I can only assume either A) Saudi oil is still super relevant and worth bending over backwards to accomodate them, B) Trump got offered some prime Saudi investment money for his company, or C) orb

Mmm Trump campaign promises - a sure bet. There must be some deeper game at play here. The President wouldn't just lie?

# ¿ Jun 23, 2021 15:00

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

FlamingLiberal posted:

I mean there was never a real plan for nation building. The real goal was to prevent the Taliban from reforming and harboring future terrorists, which we also failed miserably at.

Yeah this whole conflict was mismanaged and relegated to the back burner from jump. A good example to people who advocate for American intervention - we will pretend until we ultimately fail without ever really taking the necessary steps to ever get close to success.

# ¿ Jul 6, 2021 03:34

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

FlamingLiberal posted:

Yes and protect mining interests

From who? I thought all the prospective mining opportunities in Afghanistan were never realized because of the constant warfare and logistical issues outside of Kabul

# ¿ Jul 6, 2021 23:40

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

Herstory Begins Now posted:

The vast majority of the 'untold trillions in Afghan mineral wealth' headlines were stories that were conveniently shopped around either when the US started talking about pulling out of afghanistan or (less frequently) as part of various schemes to raise money for exploratory efforts that almost universally did not pan out.

quoting an old post in here

Right, so I'm not following the assertion that the war was to protect mining interests? Seems like mining was a red herring

# ¿ Jul 7, 2021 02:53

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

Zedhe Khoja posted:

You could argue Karzai had a real constituency, being basically a monarchial claimant, and pretend that elections in Afghanistan were real then. But what's the local faction that Ghani is supposed to have appealed to? His existence as president is the most obvious sign that elections in Afghanistan don't have even a whiff of legitimacy. Dude's just an American of Afghan descent.

Care to expand on this? What is so illegitimate about his election? If anything the eventual power sharing agreement between the top two candidates appears ay first glance to represent a very legitimate attempt at forming unity in a new democracy surrounded by threatening forces.

Grip it and rip it fucked around with this message at 19:30 on Jul 7, 2021

# ¿ Jul 7, 2021 19:27

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

Zedhe Khoja posted:

It's incredible how the people of paktia found it in their hearts to vote for an American world bank employee with a christian wife, with a heretic and a barbarous turk warlord they all loving hate as his two running mates. Shame this area is a no go zone for most journalists, they surely would have corroborated Ghani's tremendous popularity in the rural tribal areas along pakistans border

The governor of that region is the youngest in the country and also has extensive history working with international organizations and NGOs. Do you actually have anything of substance or just some oblique suggestions about voting demographics?

# ¿ Jul 7, 2021 21:17

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

Tweezer Reprise posted:

It bears reiterating that there are many more ways for a certain, small segment of an empire's population to profit from a war than direct resource extraction.

Presumably that segment of the population isnt especially enamored with Afghanistan though

# ¿ Jul 26, 2021 15:38

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

Oh drat is lollontee a highly placed Q-affiliated turkish advisor?

Who else would be so bold to malign NATO grand czar Brown Moses, while stealing their ultra-powerful research technique?

Grip it and rip it fucked around with this message at 15:48 on Jul 26, 2021

# ¿ Jul 26, 2021 15:45

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

lollontee posted:

if you treat your displaced population too good, they will settle down and wont want to go and fight in your foreign interventions. see: the american cuban diaspora, the whole idea of using american guzanos to take over cuba is a ridiculous proposition nowadays. maybe not so 60 years ago, but the cia really hosed up by integrating them so completely into the republican party

Hell yeah now do a racist screed. You are white hot!!!!

Edit: just reread this - congrats champ you did it!

Edit2: take it to the cuba thread you broke-brained dipshit

Grip it and rip it fucked around with this message at 16:08 on Jul 26, 2021

# ¿ Jul 26, 2021 16:05

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

It was a goal they wanted to accomplish - whatever rationalization they could construct to get there. Everyone in that administration was the loving worst

# ¿ Aug 10, 2021 22:31

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

People are saying the rate of advance was unexpected, but was it really? I kind of expected the central government to depart right on the tail of US state department personel. This seems like the moment that the Taliban had been planning and training for for years.

Grip it and rip it fucked around with this message at 18:18 on Aug 11, 2021

# ¿ Aug 11, 2021 18:16

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

I'll take august 17

# ¿ Aug 13, 2021 05:51

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

Lol at everyone flexing their knowledge of the ME as the ANA folds up. Lots to think about...

# ¿ Aug 14, 2021 16:35

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

How the poo poo did the US not see that this was going to happen? Hard to believe our assets on the ground could be that detached from reality. Is there an issue somewhere further up the chain?

# ¿ Aug 14, 2021 22:25

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

I don't think they're going to be putting to many US service members on the line to extract Afghani collaborators.

# ¿ Aug 15, 2021 05:37

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

Nix Panicus posted:

Why would you just assume China is dumber than the US?

The Soviets were pushed out by a proxy war funded by the US. The US was pushed out due to staggering incompetence, also funded by the US. The US has been the problem for the last forty years, why would China be the same?

E: by which I mean China is just going to dump infrastructure money and not do the dumbass American imperialism routine where they try to conjure a nation from nothing and then act surprised when it dissolves away

Lol thia dude at his shitposting wheaties today

# ¿ Aug 15, 2021 17:32

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

How are u posted:

I wholeheartedly agree. The Biden admin hosed this up. The blood of those collaborators, who risked their lives for us, is on their hands. I'm pretty loving furious.

The last administration did as much as they could to sandbag this process as well,but I agree that its a massive slap in the face to anyone who has ever taken up arms with the US. Easy to see why people loath us.

Vasukhani posted:

The Islamic Emirate has said they will offer them amnesty

We promised we would get them out though? Broad, nonspecific promises arent something I'd bet my life on.

# ¿ Aug 15, 2021 18:56

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

Zedsdeadbaby posted:

Ok so short term wise I understand the flak Biden gets for not getting all the Afghan intepreters and helpers out before withdrawing US forces.

What I don't understand is how the US spent two decades and several trillion dollars only to see Afghanistan fold in under two weeks. What in the actual gently caress happened there? And don't just blithely say 'lol soldiers didn't get paid'. The Americans had 20 loving years to notice this.

There were lots of articles on the many failings of the Afghan government and their American partners. Turns out there are some important moments in nation building that you cant fudge or phone in.

# ¿ Aug 15, 2021 18:59

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

GoLambo posted:

The actual answer that should lead you to is that the American state apparatus is rotten to the core, cannot govern and isn't fit to rule over anything.

Seems like they propped up a regime pretty easily for 2 decades.

Do you have some examples of legitimate governmental institutions that have engaged in similar efforts of nation building in recent history? My admittedly limited recall of recent international history suggests that puppet regimes dont generally last long after their support departs. I dont think its a uniquely American problem

# ¿ Aug 15, 2021 19:20

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

Discospawn posted:

"Airport is taking fire, we're sending troops to take care of it."

"Troops are taking fire, we're sending in more troops to take care of it."

"More troops, more fire. Moretroopsmorefire. MortroopmorfarMORTROOPMORFAR!"

It has the potential to be like the scene from Return of the Living Dead where the zombies keep requesting more ambulances for the brains.

Anybody who wants to attack Western targets knows that Kabul is the best place to do it right now, and ironically the Taliban are the only organized force with the position/resources to prevent those kinds of threats from loving everything up.

If the US is able to offer them enough money, I wouldn't be surprised if we see Taliban troops forming a defensive perimeter around the US evacuation areas to help them complete their withdrawal. They may not have greeted us as liberators, but maybe they'll wish us a fond farewell as their guests.

You seem like, weirdly excited about this prospect.

# ¿ Aug 15, 2021 21:58

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

Nix Panicus posted:

The US is having issues evacuating all its personnel in an orderly fashion because the Taliban now runs everything.

Biden has, in response, sent in more personnel that will eventually need to also be evacuated because the Taliban now run everything.

And if the new personnel have difficulty evacuating in an orderly fashion (because the Taliban now runs everything) then Biden, in response, will have to send in more personnel to help evacuate them

And if the new personnel have difficulty evacuating in an orderly fashion (because the Taliban now runs everything) then Biden, in response, will have to send in more personnel to help evacuate them
And if the new personnel have difficulty evacuating in an orderly fashion (because the Taliban now runs everything) then Biden, in response, will have to send in more personnel to help evacuate them
And if the new personnel have difficulty evacuating in an orderly fashion (because the Taliban now runs everything) then Biden, in response, will have to send in more personnel to help evacuate them
etc

Yes, it's an idiot's conundrum. I also doubt that the Taliban is going to meaningfully curtail opium production enough to stop the opiate crisis, particularly with the rise of fentanyl and other synthetic opioids. I also understand that some cartels are working on domestic (mexican) opium production, given the ongoing strength of demand.

Grip it and rip it fucked around with this message at 00:18 on Aug 16, 2021

# ¿ Aug 16, 2021 00:13

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

The forum's top minds are here, in this thread. Amazing.

# ¿ Aug 16, 2021 00:43

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

Why didn't we just nuke the Taliban? ?!?

# ¿ Aug 16, 2021 01:42

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

Lol the suggestion that 6k American soldiers would unconditionally surrender to the Taliban or that the USA could not resupply an airport with thousands of fully equipped soldiers inside.

# ¿ Aug 16, 2021 18:53

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

readingatwork posted:

I mean we could certainly have handled the details better but this overall situation was inevitable. We dumped 20 years into this poo poo and it all collapsed in seconds. I don�t see any reason why Iraq would be any different or why we shouldn�t just pull out there as well.

Iraq is likely viewed as a much more important client state. It borders Iran and Saudi Arabia and they generally don't like one another. I think our "allies" in the Middle East would have much stronger feelings about us up and leaving in the middle of the night like we did in Afghanistan.

The reality is that they already essentially collapsed once, to ISIS. They are in a very precarious position and seriously want to avoid being the frontier or combat center for any confrontation between the US/Iran/Saudi Arabia/Israel/Russia or whoever else would want to jump into that fray.

# ¿ Aug 17, 2021 00:18

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

Nix Panicus posted:

So not only did tons of US contractor money get siphoned off by corrupt officials and even more corrupt American CEOs, it was also common practice to pay off local warlords, including the Taliban, for protection. The US also loved to dump giant stacks of money at the feet of whoever claimed to be a local leader with little to no accountability, and a chunk of that money also ended up in Taliban hands. And given the lack of background checks and frequency of desertion from the ANA, I wouldn't be surprised to learn that a significant number of Taliban went through basic military training on the US's dime.

So much like the US funded and trained fanatic extremists to battle the Soviets, the US most likely funded and trained the same fanatic extremists to battle the US. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

If the US could enact option 2, wiping out the Taliban over the next couple of years, why did they elect not to do so? Seems like a bit of a military oversight. Should have just sent in the brave boys of the 182 to gun down all the Taliban twenty years ago and saved us the trouble.

Looking pretty smart to pay the Taliban off so they would let us retreat even when we completely bungle the process.

# ¿ Aug 17, 2021 05:23

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

Nix Panicus posted:

There were other reasons, like a whole lot of money to be made by contractors with ties to the US regime, or strategic encirclement of Iran, but turning the flow of drugs back on probably didn't hurt. Also the Taliban offered to turn over Bin Laden to a neutral country to stand trial several times and was rebuffed every time. Plus the 9/11 conspirators were Saudi, but the Saudis had close ties to the US regime.

Also its not like starting wars over the drug trade is unprecedented in history https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opium_Wars

Were you even alive during any of these events? You dont seem to have much of a familiarity with the international atmosphere at the time or the dispositions of the individuals involved. The USA didnt need some alternative motive for invading Afghanistan. They completely lashed out to flex on the world how horrible they could be.

# ¿ Aug 17, 2021 17:04

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

Didnt the CIA and all of the US intelligence agencies get a blank check after 9/11 anyway?

# ¿ Aug 17, 2021 17:39

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# ¿ May 11, 2024 15:15

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

Lost Time posted:

It's not that we invaded for the opium, but in the positives list column of doing a forever war in Afghanistan and figuring out who to support against the Taliban, I think opium was pretty high up on the list. We're talking $$$$ just like with any bomb or oil or gas extraction.

And since the USA mission after 2001 was to immediately forget about OBL while opium production surged, I agree that the war definitively became more about the resources then and less the nation building and helping women or punishing the Taliban for hosting Al-Qaeda, where we already knew there was very minimal presence there.

https://twitter.com/RealAlexRubi/status/1426324940270284800

You think the USA made a pros / cons list in the aftermath of 9/11?

# ¿ Aug 17, 2021 22:51

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