Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Post
  • Reply
saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

Janitor Ludwich IV posted:

please tell me what that song is you're adapting into a clever post because lol

What do Germans know about hurricanes anyway?

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

ships tend to avoid 90 knot gusts and 50 foot waves, yes

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

TACD posted:

I’m not an expert but it appears to be raining rocks?

putting the meteor in meteorology

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1573097895406227457

canadian maritimes bout to get a bit breezy

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1573256989987246080

lfg boys

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

actionjackson posted:

that is extremely slow right? how fast did some of the other most well known hurricanes move

Ian is forecast to take 24 hours to cross Florida. Charley did it in 8 1/2 hours.

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

SchrodingersCat posted:

Lee County sheriff saying death toll is in the hundreds there.

For what it's worth, he has no way of knowing this, considering he can't even get into a lot of the damaged areas yet. I'm sure there will be fatalities, but it's way way way too soon to put any kind of number on it.

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

https://twitter.com/willnunley/status/1575576793331175425

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

disaster day +2, searches will get easier now since you'll be able to smell if there's anything that needs to be recovered from the piles of debris that used to be houses

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal


that's pretty charitable

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

Sanlav posted:

2 hours later her home was underwater.

Was she still complaining about not being able to connect then?

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

RC Cola posted:

no I heard the pacific northwest is safe from climate change????

did tucker carlson tell you that

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

Shifty Nipples posted:

What happened in 1877/1878

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2183901-a-freak-1870s-climate-event-caused-drought-across-three-continents/

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

You'd think being inside a Nicole would be a more enjoyable experience but that's 2022 for ya

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

skooma512 posted:

Rockets are designed to withstand moving fast through air, so logically they should withstand air moving fast.

:jeb:

As they say, it ain't just that the wind is blowing, it's what the wind is blowing. Getting sand and debris blasted isn't healthy for rockets.

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

SirPablo posted:

Wow a lot of posters downplaying a local weather disaster.

disaster you say, stroking a bright red thermometer

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1593962017009926146

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

SirPablo posted:

You all are stupid.

Weatherdammerung 2022: You are all stupid.

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

SirPablo posted:

This is going to be a huge loving storm. The Friday before Christmas, travel nightmare. Blizzard conditions for the north central US. Wouldn't be surprised if some area within IA-WI-IL gets two feet of snow. Oh yea and the cold.



lol the 12z GFS is 150 miles further northeast with the surface low center

saintonan has issued a correction as of 18:42 on Dec 19, 2022

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

Here's a decent link for frost-free spigots, which is how they handle external pipes in the north:

https://www.wheresjunior.com/what-is-a-frost-free-hose-spigot-and-how-does-it-work/

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

SorePotato posted:

Gee if southerners deserve to die bc theyre dumb i hate to ask about the disabled

you just did

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

SirPablo posted:

Bomb cyclones never happened before

Never heard of them before 1945, Oppenheimer must have invented them

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal


that's what a bunch of dead people in Buffalo said

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

NOAA leadership lied about impacts from the hurricane under direct pressure from the secretary of commerce, and never even bothered to tell the local office they were going to lie about it, so the office was completely blindsided by the betrayal.

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1641829235680743424

First PDS watch of the day coming soonish. It won't be the last of the day, either.

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

https://twitter.com/Iembot_emerg/status/1641922567543083008

Tornado about to go through the north side of Memphis.

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

Makes me wonder how many of the two dozen plus that were killed were taking video at the time

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

SirPablo posted:

I'm going to start streaming weather videos with brightly colored maps, lots of screaming, and shout-outs to my Patreon subs.

Didn't even have to click to know you were talking about Ryan Hall.

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

SirPablo posted:

No hurricanes allowed until June 1.

EastPac starts May 15.

https://twitter.com/ForceThirteen/status/1660633476025012225

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

SirPablo posted:

That's EPAC?

Technically CPAC but anything that touches PR counts IMO in terms of increased awareness.

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=GUA-N0Q-0-24-100-usa-rad

Starting to show up on Guam's radar

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

Oglethorpe posted:

what's the temperature limit for texas' electrical grid again?

I guess posting 300hr GFS as a perfect prog isn't just a winter thing

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal


https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=OIBP&hours=72

You can follow along in real time - they've made 140+ heat index every afternoon since then.

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

SirPablo posted:

Hey are mountains good or bad for a tropical circulation?

they're bad unless you find yourself in those mountains

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

GFS did 9/11

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

FistEnergy posted:

The part of Florida that Idalia is heading for is pretty unprepared for a direct hit and the cities are historically overconfident, no? Being on the west coast of Florida gives them a lot of protection from the winds and surges of most Atlantic hurricanes.

I wouldn't pay any attention to specific track locations right now. The system is still spinning up, hasn't even entered the Gulf yet, and hasn't really begun strong intensification yet. All of those things can and do affect track. The cone that's on NHC's web site right now shows where the 2/3 track probability resides - there's a 1/3 chance just from this forecast of the center of Idalia going outside the cone. If I were anywhere from Pensacola to Fort Myers, I'd be starting preparations as if it was hitting me directly.

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

FistEnergy posted:

absolutely. but I have some family in the Tampa area, and like most Floridians they assume it's overblown and they'll be fine like usual

Hurricane and storm surge warnings went up this cycle for the Tampa area, so hurricane conditions are expected in that region within the next 36 hours. They might be fine! They might also not be. Preparing for something that doesn't hit them is a lot better than being unprepared when something does hit them.

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

actionjackson posted:

where did you get a larger version of the maps in the first pic that you can actually read?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/152743.shtml?key_messages#contents

All the graphics are on that page.

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

Woke Mind Virus posted:

If the models are consistently too hot weeks out why don't they just fix the model? Morons

They will, but it's complex enough that it will take a few years to get it implemented correctly.

quote:

The tentative plan is to have GFSv17 in operations prior to the summer of 2026. There really isn't any way to accurately determine potential delays to v17 if a fix is prepared for v16, but my guess is that we could potentially be talking about a delay of 9-12 months. The issue is that any change to v16 would require a lot of work from the land-sfc team and the physics team, both of which are heavily engaged with GFSv17 work (which includes a new land-sfc model). Potentially altering the land-sfc model, the GLDAS, and the PBL scheme would take people from at least 4 groups (land-sfc, physics, data assimilation, and verification/validation) away from GFSv17 development to build mitigation strategy for v16, test it, run a series of retrospective runs (as performance would need to be assessed over long periods in all seasons), and assess those. A field evaluation would be required. That all adds up on the calendar pretty quickly

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

In both cases you need a helmet

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply