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Teddybear posted:Amendment 4 isn’t quite as automatic as it sounds— there’s a requirement to repay court costs, I believe, that’s going to make it tough for the very poor to afford restoration. But it will have an impact if by sheer numbers alone— we’re talking over a million newly eligible voters. Even if a fraction of them meet the new requirements and vote, that’s hundreds of thousands of new voters. Florida in 2020 is going to look different from 2018, for sure. If there isn't somebody already setting up a non-profit to take donations to pay those costs for ex-felons in Florida while also registering them, there should be.
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Nov 11, 2018 21:19
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knox_harrington posted:Tapper shutting down Gardner's bullshit about FL election fraud Gardener? Seriously? Do you WANT to be tossed out on your rear end in 2020?
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Nov 11, 2018 21:24
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Teddybear posted:This feels like an unusual amount of retracted/blown calls for an election-- both in that it's several media companies making the same mistakes, and that there's been so many of them. I don't remember these sorts of slipups happening in 2016 or before-- am I wrong? There hasn't been a midterm race with this kind of turnout in 100 years, their models didn't account for that. They used the best information they had. (Nate's model ended up being almost perfect. His predictions were never far from Sen R - 0 to R+2 or House D - 35 to D - 40)
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Nov 12, 2018 05:55
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On the topic of uncalled races, here's what I was able to find in a few minutes of blind googling looking only for updates from the last 24 Hours. These are races that have not yet been decided according to the New York Times House Elections Results list. New York 22nd: BALLOTS HAVE BEEN IMPOUNDED IN THE 22ND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT RACE Utah 4th: Gehrke: Latest election results break Love’s way and so we wait for a call in the 4th District Main 2nd: Secretary of State defends election integrity amid concerns from Maine GOP Georgia 7th: Democrat Bourdeaux takes legal action as 7th District race remains unresolved Texas 23rd: https://twitter.com/jbendery/status/1061666887627628544?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Enews%7Ctwgr%5Etweet I was unable to find updates from the last 24 Hours concerning the California 10th, 39th and 45th, the New Jersey 3rd, or the New York 27th. However, local news outlets did call the New York 27th for Actually Indited Criminal Chris Collins (R) and have not since retracted.
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Nov 12, 2018 06:32
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knox_harrington posted:Yeah he was clearly not at all happy about it, close to tears on his final day etc. Does getting fired remove a pension or something from him? He's only been doing the job 5 minutes, it can't be that much. It seems absolutely spineless eben he could have redused a la Rosenstein, His last day on the job he got to absolutely cripple any attempt nationwide at reforming police departments. He got his 30 pieces of silver.
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Nov 13, 2018 08:09
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Hellblazer187 posted:For all of the (justified) "rest in piss" stuff we said about McCain on this board, it's kind of silly to forget how much he was respected by most people and especially in Arizona. We have to accept that the other AZ senate seat is not likely to flip in 2020 I think.
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Nov 13, 2018 18:06
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evilweasel posted:will nobody think of the rights of the moonmen????? Goodbyyyyyeeeee, moonmen
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Nov 13, 2018 19:40
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The Glumslinger posted:https://twitter.com/DaniellaMicaela/status/1063209626227957760 This alone is probably enough to kill any hope there was on Florida. Not going to make up 15k votes when one of your biggest vote sources isnt allowed to change its number due to bs
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Nov 16, 2018 03:07
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Hellblazer187 posted:But they are still going to do a hand recount, which was the real chance for this. Oh, I thought that was for the hand recount, not the machine. My bad
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Nov 16, 2018 03:24
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evilweasel posted:It’s still a long shot but today I’m suddenly seeing rumblings that the Mississippi senate race is not a foregone conclusion. I can't help but feel like this is Horse Race "create a competition narrative," reporting rather than anything real. I'd love for it to happen, but I can't really believe it. Of course since the media is talking like this Trump will shout from the rooftops how he and the Republicans won against all odds in loving MISSISSIPPI.
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Nov 18, 2018 09:47
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I wonder what the fucks at r/T_D have to say about Daddy putting his tail between his legs and whimpering off to a corner instead of prosecuting Clinton like Q promised them was coming for sure. Not enough to go there mind you.
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Nov 21, 2018 05:11
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Remember the "no blue wave," BS on election night, including from inside this very forum? Fun times. If only there was a ghost of a chance in MS or FL had gone the other way to really put the icing on the cake. It's funny, because I really expected the Rs to be all-in on how successful Kavanaugh was for them because of the wins in MO and ND since those senators refusing Beerman was so high-profile and because the only Dem that backed him survived the Blue Dog Slaughter, but there's been barely a peep on that front.
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Nov 21, 2018 18:58
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If the Blue Dog idiots in the house push Pelosi and the party even further left via this comically ineffectual leadership challenge I may never stop laughing.
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Nov 21, 2018 22:58
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Furnaceface posted:I live right across the lake from Ohio and I honestly never knew it was suffering the same fate as our maritime provinces with young people fleeing in huge numbers. Is it a recent phenomena or has the state slowly been building up to this event? Are there any other states in a similar situation? A lot of states in that region around the Great Lakes, which we generally refer to as "The Rust Belt," are seeing major flight by young people because there are no opportunities for them in the area. In addition to Ohio, western New York, western Pennsylvania, Kentucky, northern Illinois, Wisconsin and Michigan are losing a lot of their youth populations due to lack of jobs. Kansas is also in this club due to its unique skullfucking by conservative economic experiments ruining the state enough that they elected a Democrat governor this midterm. Certain other states are also losing young people due to the "glass ceiling," issue of high cost of living and high competition for the jobs that can actually sustain that cost. Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey and some parts of California and New York have this issue. A lot of these young people are ending up in the places where there is a good compromise between current opportunity, growth potential and still-reasonable cost of living. Most of these places are in the west, which is why urban-spawl California, Washington, Oregon, Colorado and New Mexico have become ever-more deep blue, Nevada has gone from purple to blue, and Arizona and Texas are going from Red to Pink or even Purple. Similar effects are being seen in the urbanizing southern states, especially Georgia and North Carolina, which is why those states are tilting blue as well. I think Minnesota and Virginia are also in this club, which is why they're getting bluer. Also based on a couple articles I read a lot of people are heading for Vermont. I guess their experiment in paying people to live there if they telecommute to other states is working.
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Nov 22, 2018 09:20
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Jerry Manderbilt posted:with minnesota (which hillary only won by a rat's rear end hair in 2016) there's also the question about whether the increasing blue tilt of the twin cities' burbs can outpace the increasing chudification of the large rural portions of the state, given how we ended up trading MN-01 and MN-08 for MN-02 and MN-03 This is a good point. The growing urban-rural divide in the northern mid-west is probably the biggest challenge the Democrats are going to face in terms of presidential politics in the coming decade. If Ohio is as far gone as it seems and Florida is not far behind, Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin are absolutely crucial to any democratic electoral strategy. Shoring up bulwarks in Iowa and Pennsylvania to make those safer states, and pushing hard to flip North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona are also keys. All of these states except maybe Penn have the same urban/rural split issue, but it's not an insurmountable one. Jinkies gang, this stock market volatility sure is a mystery. Maybe Old Man Trump who runs this haunted amusement park has some ideas about what's causing it?
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Nov 22, 2018 18:55
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EdithUpwards posted:shitlibs flinched and refused to support the leader of the party and that greatly depressed turnout. Running from Obamacare after spending most of two years working to pass it instead of digging in and fighting for it may have been the dumbest move in the history of modern politics.
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Nov 24, 2018 21:48
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I'm actually morbidly curious about which one of these two events is going to completely drive the other one off the radar and be the only thing pundits talk about for a week. I mean, either way the one that gets ignored is so horrific as to freeze the soul, but still. I guess it depends on which one Orange Douche comments on to defend the obvious evil first.
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Nov 25, 2018 22:59
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Skippy McPants posted:Oh boy, now we can add (even more) sexual violence to our list of cultural exports. When I was growing up I never could have imagined that so many white men were so pathetically fragile. Like gently caress, I don't want to minimize what the MeToo movement has accomplished, but what tangible effects on their lives could these clowns have possibly seen from it? I'm a cowardly weakling and if I hadn't been lucky enough to have parents who could afford to help me get along for a full 5 years out of school before I even began to stabilize my life I'd have probably ended up destitute or dead. I always imagined I was about as fragile as a man could possibly be. The sheer sub-humanity that has been exposed in my gender to me in the last few years has been nothing short of mind-boggling.
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Nov 26, 2018 08:30
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Furnaceface posted:And yet they are huge when it meant traversing them to help Puerto Rico after the hurricane. Can't be going too well if the Senate GOP thinks it's safe to put a State/No State vote on the table.
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Nov 28, 2018 08:06
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Who is Graham trying to appeal to at this point? His Cavanaugh stunt burned a poo poo ton of bridges for chud cred, and now hes burning the chud cred
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Nov 28, 2018 19:56
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This is such loving horseshit. If gerrymandered forever-republican state legislatures in purple states can just obliterate any ability for any Democrat to implement their policies and campaign promises, whats the loving point of anything?
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Dec 1, 2018 07:39
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MickeyFinn posted:Every day it seems like more of the Steele dossier is confirmed. I can’t help but wonder how big a splash this stuff will make because everyone already assumed it all, or wrote it off as fake. Does anyone have any tweets or TV appearances of someone changing from Trump is innocent to Trump is guilty? I’m curious if this is penetrating media. (This is not a nothing matters post, I want to see the mattering despite being in the wrong time zone.) The only people who have been saying Trump Is Innocent will not turn on him unless very specific forces literally tell them to or the climate makes it necessary for them to do so in order to survive. We're not at either of those yet. They will continue to provide full-throated declarations of his complete innocence as a universally accepted axiom long as there is even the most pathetic and shriveled fig leaf for them to hide behind. The Mattering will not be evident from the corners you're talking about until long after it is crystal clear from others.
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Dec 8, 2018 09:21
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saintonan posted:So Republicans cherry picked a judge they knew would rule the way they wanted. The judge doesn't order an injunction, issues his ruling very late on a Friday afternoon, and sets the table very neatly for an orderly appeal that Republicans will certainly lose, given existing Congressional intent, at the very end of the enrollment window. This won't affect anything at all. Then what is the loving point? Why do Republicans do these stupid things? It's mind boggling. Their own voters do not want them to do these things, their paymasters and donors and lobbyists don't want them to do these things, they continually motivate and energize votes for their opposition by doing these things. Literally nobody wins, NOT EVEN THEMSELVES.
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Dec 15, 2018 05:25
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Z. Autobahn posted:The Dems have a pretty good shot at the Senate in 2020, especially if the next two years continue on the trend of the last month. ME + CO + AZ are easy pickups, and they just need one lucky break in any other state. It's not a lock, by any means, but I'd put it at the 40% mark right now, and those odds are only going to get better. I would look to North Carolina before AZ, I have little hope we can repeat what happened with Sinema. Montana is also a strong possibility.
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Dec 22, 2018 00:42
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Zwabu posted:https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...f2ab_story.html I mean, if his point is that it won't hurt Trump with the only people he cares about, his base, he's 100% right. NOT doing the shutdown and abandoning the wall would have been catastrophic for him with those psychos. The only question is if it will hurt him among moderate Rs and Independents. Which is probable bordering on likely, although it's not impossible that they turn on the Ds at some point in the next two weeks if Schumer fucks up somehow.
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Dec 23, 2018 12:06
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saintonan posted:Moderate Republicans no longer exist. If a person still supports Trump at this point, they're no longer moderate. To the extent that Trump has made personal loyalty to himself the only plank of the Republican party, there's no room left to be anything but an extremist. I was more using moderate as a synonym for "Rs who thought of Trump as a useful idiot to enable their desires," rather than true Trumpians/Open White Supremacists
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Dec 23, 2018 12:56
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I feel like there's a really good chance Trump will take the blame if the economy blows up because it's really been almost non-stop coverage of his dubious economic moves and experts saying they're really bad and will do big damage. Trade Wars, humiliating himself repeatedly while China looks like the adult in the room, botched negotiations, the alienation of our trading allies, threatening the Fed, ignoring his advisors on every issue, the giant tax cut that nobody normal saw any benefit out of, these are things that can and will stick out in the memory in a way that previous Republicans president's economic moves did not. This is compounded by the fact that modern algorythm-based stock trading is causing a lot of these effects in real-time in a way no President has had to deal with before, the fact that Donald himself has constantly pointed at the Stock Market as the ONLY worthwhile indicator of his economic successes, and the fact that many of his own followers constantly make it a talking point that the President's policies are going to cause short-term harm for theoretical long term gains off of America "no longer being exploited," or whatever. Trump is practically stacking the deck as hard as he can to ensure it will be difficult if not impossible to swing the blame away from him, compared to how things went with Bush Jr. and Reagan/Bush Sr. before him.
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Dec 29, 2018 01:25
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withak posted:Stanislaus sheriff slams CA sanctuary policies after arrest of suspected cop-killer I hope the people in that county vote that fuckface out on his rear end. Grandstanding dickhead deserves to lose his job for using his position as a soapbox and one of his fellow officer's corpses as a loudspeaker for his personal politics. I'm so sick of Sheriffs with dreams of right wing political grift. May they all end up like that one rear end in a top hat Clarke, already forgotten after selling his soul to Trump and getting nothing in return for it.
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Dec 29, 2018 05:15
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Publically admitting it. They know any phantom of a chain is off. Remember how anti-Isreal everyone said Obama was just for SLIGHTLY chilling relations with them by occasionally saying they were doing bad things while still selling them more guns than ever? Combine that with a rabidly anti-Iran Sec of State and National Security Advisor who are both DESPERATE for war with the Ayatollah, and Bibi knows now is the time to get every inch he can get before anything can happen to reign them in.
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Jan 22, 2019 00:05
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Failson posted:Pundits: "Wow, this summit may lead to small, but concrete steps towards peace, like Liason offices..." lol at any of this bullshit. Kim won the moment Trump shook his hand in front of a camera, just like he did the last time. The development of a nuclear weapon that could threaten American soil had the theoretical potential to shift the NK diplomatic quagmire and produce real results, and it was in the toilet the second Trump agreed to a meeting where Kim was made to look equal to the POTUS. But why would anyone be surprised by that when Trump never cared about anything but using this as domestic red meat, and the state department was gutted and brain drained more than a year before that opportunity arose? Any speculation about Bolton or who did what or what went wrong or who is as fault for it is the worst kind of shadow puppetry. This whole thing was a joke from the moment it was conceived regardless of what anyone did or did not do there. Treating it otherwise is stupidity.
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Mar 2, 2019 02:40
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Gyges posted:It was more than just that Wait, wait, Obama was willing to touch the Third Rail AND cut more than a TRILLION from that Big Government the GOP hates so much in exchange for a tax increase, and Boehner tried to strong arm him and turn the tax increase into a GOP tax policy grab-bag including tax CUTS? Like, you're saying this is a deal Donny would negotiate, but think about the fact that Obama went to the GOP and said "If you raise taxes I will give you these two gigantic things that you want," and the GOP's response was "Ok, but what if instead you give us those two giant things we want, and then we will LOWER taxes and also enact even more trickle-down theory bullshit into the tax code." Like, that could not be more strait out of the Trump playbook. What the hell did Obama want that 800 billion for? Because I can think of a list of a few things where if they could get funded, especially through increased taxes on the rich which is a fundamental policy good given wealth concentration is a problem in-and-of-itself, I would not be shedding too many tears for the poor old people. Frankly, people age 0-45 need a hell of a lot more help than the boomer and early gen-x fuckers who would be inconvenienced by having to wait a couple extra years for medicare. Sanguinia fucked around with this message at 09:41 on Mar 2, 2019 |
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Mar 2, 2019 09:31
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Charlz Guybon posted:Too many outrages for me to keep up with As things like this, Mehgan McCain attacking a jewish cartoonist for his 'Anti-Semitism,' and the GOP mustering almost 30 no-votes on a Anti-Hate Speech resolution continue to mount up, I'm almost sad that this story has gotten zero traction with the general public despite how totally it's consumed the political reporting circle-jerk. It's turning into a bigger and bigger own-goal by the Republicans by the second even though just 48 hours ago it was peak Democrats In Disarray.
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Mar 9, 2019 06:17
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Piell posted:This looks like news. So they actually did his stupid Lock Her Up investigation, but it turned up so much NOTHING that Trump didn't even dare talk about it at his nazi rallies. That's amazing.
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Mar 9, 2019 23:36
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Another state hosed into poverty by GOP economic policy starts waking up. It's going to be very interesting to see how the Democrats approach 2020 from a strategic perspective. If they can nail down Penn and Michigan and the rest of Clinton's map holds (which at the moment there's little reason to think it wouldn't), they only need to win ONE other state. You have to think they're going all-in on North Carolina. They have a Governor's mansion to defend, a court-ungerrymandered House map to work with, there's a Senate seat up for grabs, and it's probably the most purple state in the entire south. We can also expect a strong push to lock up Maine and more-than-necessary effort in Colorado to capture that Senate seat. But beyond those obvious targets, where else do you go? Do you fight the hard rear end slog in Wisconsin to try and capitalize on taking the governor's mansion when it's one of the most polarized states in the union right now? Do you target Kansas since it has a Senate seat on the table to try and follow through on THAT gubernatorial win and the optics of R's in the statehouse switching parties? Do you gamble on Georgia with it's huge swell of democratic strength or pass on it because of the blatant electoral corruption Kemp is stacking against you? Do you try and help Jones keep his seat in Alabama for it's symbolic value or leave him to his fate? Do you aim to defend the Governor's mansion and pick up the Senate seat in Montana, or leave Tester as the last man standing? Missouri was the site of your biggest defeat in 2018, but the voters there showed an openness to leftist ideas despite that and it's governor's mansion is the most valuable one on the board for redistricting, so do you take the uphill fight or is it too big a risk? Do you look toward Iowa and weaponizing Steve King and Trump's abuse of farmers to try and get that Senate seat? Do you try to cash in all those  points you've been saving up and go hard on Arizona to seize McCain's Senate seat? And now maybe do you also ask the question if Louisiana and it's Senate Seat are in the game?This election is certainly going to be an interesting ride.
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Mar 31, 2019 06:48
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Its hard to blame Abrahms for not wanting to risk the GA Senate race, her power is in ascension despite her Gov loss, and another major defeat could shatter that. It would be too big a dice roll for me if I were in her shoes. What pisses me off is the so winnable MT and TX Senate races. The fucks who would rather waste millions of dollars on doomed POTUS campaigns that they will finish 8th or worse in are infuriating. We need 4 and these fuckers are making the odds significantly longer for zero gain.
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May 2, 2019 22:16
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EdithUpwards posted:Purges followed by conscription are bad. Declaring a war and activating the draft would be almost shockingly normal by this presidents standards. There'd be no mass unrest over it, at least not any more than Nam Well, not declaring obviously, you know what I mean. Sanguinia fucked around with this message at 20:32 on May 7, 2019 |
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May 7, 2019 20:27
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Otteration posted:The fight to end Roe v. Wade enters its endgame next week We're going to spend the rest of our lives trying to repair the damage Trump did, and then climate change will kill us all before we finish.
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Sep 28, 2019 09:15
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