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Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Hillary 2020 posted:

Time Traveller: What year is it?
Me: It's 2020
Time Traveller: Cool. Did the asteroid hit yet?
Me:

cascadia fault lookin juicy rn

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Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Jon Irenicus posted:

if The Big One hits I will die assuming we are in a simulation of SIm City with someone hitting all the disasters at once

well we know for sure we're at least going to have some crazy climate change black swan this year

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

SKULL.GIF posted:

gently caress, I knew I was missing something. I don't actually know of any, all the focus right now has been on Congress passing multi-trillion-dollar stimulus bills and disaster funding.

donate to bernie, he's got his machine wired into a bunch of corona charities now

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

TotalHell posted:

gonna lose a lot of folks to this

wonder how many people will wake up from the right-wing grift because of this stuff

0.002%

about 50% of those that go on a ventilator

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

congrats everyone, we did it!!

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.


“It’s been six months since the COVID-19 vaccination ended the two-year pandemic. Now as wards sit empty, a consortium of hospitals is suing the Chinese government for ’premature discontinuation’ of their must profitable customers.”

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

facetoucher cat posted:

I'm unemployed now and can't file for UI because I've been a freelancer contractor for the past 6 years lmao. Weeeeee!

you might be able to apply for a dischargeable "loan" under the Paycheck Protection Program and get 8 weeks of pay covered

find an SBA authorized bank and try applying

you might also be able to still apply for UI under the new rules. this seems to have pretty good info on both programs, at least as a place to start: https://blog.freelancersunion.org/2020/03/30/what-the-cares-act-means-for-freelancers/

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Farm Frenzy posted:

jesus Christ its the loving yall debate again

honestly the sequels weren’t that bad

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

twoday posted:

fwiw The Dutch health Minister said something about a serology test for antibodies being developed and an announcement next week

it’s going to cost $1000 in the us, won’t be covered, and will make having your papers the top status symbol of 2020

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

TODD BONZALEZ posted:

When exponentials get going, they get going

which is yet another reason why all the talk of china underreporting their numbers is ridiculous

like yeah, maybe they're undercounted by 10% or 20% or 50% or 100% but lmao at the idea of covering up true exponential growth

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Funion posted:

as fun as it is to dunk on liberals, they are more accepting of peer reviewed science and are more likely to turn leftist

any lib that loves peer review is definitely primed to adopt marxism, the most-cited body of work in the last thirty years

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Funion posted:

The OP was arguing that chuds are somehow likelier to "convince" than liberals.

I will always argue that people who accept science will be more likely to turn leftist than those who don't i.e. chuds.

accepting bourgeois science has nothing to do with it

plenty of ultra chuds that can do stats and diffeq out there

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Lawman 0 posted:

Imagine being so far up your own rear end you call science "bourgeois science"

you know, as opposed to the immortal science of marxism-leninism

the hard sciences in america are hugely driven by market forces. the american higher education system has a fundamental instrumentalist mindset that's mega-conducive to training up little chudlingtons into profit-seeking science machines

there is absolutely nothing about science as it is taught in america that prepares one to adopt leftist politics

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Funion posted:

Have any of you talked to chuds vs libs irl

There's a reason you see more libs suddenly criticizing capitalism on twitter right now, and why more chuds are going full death cult.

Anyone who says chuds are "easier to convince" than libs earns a fuckin lol from me

This is all besides the point though since people change their minds on their own and not through direct convincing

anyway thos beans

absolutely, and I've noticed that the correlation in their willingness to promote leftist policies as necessary has nothing to do with their science expertise and everything to do with their material concerns

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Zotix posted:

The scary thing is letting her go to sleep. Normally after falling and hitting your head you want to get that checked out.

go through this list and if she's experiencing the gnarlier symptoms think about escalating and keeping her awake, etc.

https://www.cdc.gov/headsup/pdfs/schools/tbi_schools_checklist_508-a.pdf

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Funion posted:

But the rational thinking promoted by science is actually very important when it comes to UNDERSTANDING their material concerns.

When it comes to chuds, all bets are off on the conclusion they will reach.

That's why we see some of them literally believing in a secret demon-worshipping pedophilic deep-state cabal.

not so my man, people are very good at understanding their immediate material concerns

rationality is a red herring. ideology is much more important, and science education isn't teaching people poo poo about that. the collapse itself is going to take everyone's latent ideological notions about How Things Work and shatter them. chud or lib, they're either going to be open to a new perspective or not, and believing in science isn't going to magically make people more open to the idea that the state should run the economy or even parts of it.

the truth is that all bets are off on what conclusion most people will reach. libs will probably convert at a much, much higher percentage than chuds, but, again, science literacy has very little to do with it.

my bet is that many in the super-hardcore Lib Peer Review crowd will hold out the longest, since they've insulated themselves from critical thinking by repeating the mantra "show me the study" their whole lives. they probably also think the social sciences are fake, the nobel prize in economics is rightfully prestigious, and marxism has been proven wrong time and again.

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

GABA ghoul posted:

Whoever told you that you need 14h to make bread is probably working for the brread lobby and doesn't have your best interest at heart, htbh. Soda bread takes 40 min to make with 5 min of labor. All you need is baking soda, buttermilk, flour & oats. If it's good enough for Ireland it's good enough for you goony rear end.

BEER BREAD

3 cups flour
1 12oz can of beer (cheaper the better)
3 tbsp sugar
2 tsp coarse sea salt (it's much better with this kind)
1 tbsp baking powder

mix it up and cook at 375 for ~45 minutes

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

charity rereg posted:

i only have smirnoff ice think i can substitute??

gently caress it, why not

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Schmoe Cwead posted:

https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/1247282625896644608

womp womp judges say u gotta go stand in line and die

how the gently caress is the supreme court even real, just don't do it

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Schnorkles posted:

I'm not from Wisconsin but I say let the olds vote

on the one hand, constitutional crisis

on the other hand, boomer death

on the gripping hand, lmao

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

lol this model loving sucks and they should be ashamed of their uncertainty estimates

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Atrocious Joe posted:

who;s model is this?

it's the university of washington IHME model the white house has been referencing

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

twoday posted:

a brief history lesson:

after the Netherlands became independent, the Dutch Republic soon emerged from being a feudal possession of the Spanish to becoming a flourishing wealthy empire. Free from the system of monarchy which burdened the rest of the countries in Europe, the country soon became an oligarchy run by wealthy merchants who also ran the government, and went to work building a mighty fleet that they used to enable their imperialist expansion to every continent and all corners of the world, ruthlessly exploiting every resource they came across for the sake of accumulating wealth. Not only did they invent the stock market and the concept of the corporation, but they also seamlessly integrated corporate and government interests into a single ruthless machine, and also established a global trade network which arguably played a massive part in establishing the basis for the current world order of international capitalist trade. In doing so, they rapidly accumulated unfathomable amounts of wealth, and the profits of the East India Company alone dwarf all modern ones when adjusted for inflation, and made it the most profitable company in the history of the world:



And that's just ignoring the West India Company and all of the other business which played a role in the economy. For a number of decades in the 17th century the Dutch Republic was by any measure the wealthiest nation on earth, and much of this money was invested into the armed forces and military technology, resulting in one of the most formidable armies and navies on earth, which was then used to build an exploitative global empire that drained the earth of its natural resources in the name of capital, and led to deaths of hundreds of thousands of people who stood in the way of this process. There was a period where the Dutch were pretty much the only global superpower, and not only dominated the world financially and militarily, but also created lots of scientific developments and beautiful artwork. So what happened? Why don't the Dutch still rule the world?

Well, all of this wheeling and dealing inevitably led to the Dutch becoming embroiled in numerous conflicts around the world with all of the other major powers of the day, and those decades of war (both cold and hot) drained a lot of resources and created a lot of enemies on the world stage. These wars were not only a financial burden on the nation, but also helped emphasize social divides which were already present, and generated a lot of problems in society. All of this came to a head in a single year which is now known as the 'Rampjaar' or "Disaster Year," when just about everything that could possibly go wrong went wrong. After years of conflict, the other major powers all grew to despise the Dutch Republic, and in 1672 the country was simultaneously attacked on all sides by an Alliance of the English, French, and Germans. At the same time there was a bitter civil war in the country between monarchists and Republicans which culminated in the head of state, who had ruled for almost 2 decades, and his brother who was the head of the navy (perhaps the most formidable military force on earth at that time) being dragged out into the streets, where they were lynched by a mob who ripped off their skin and ate their livers and other organs raw.



This mighty empire descended almost overnight into unimaginable chaos, with every element of society being ripped apart along its weakest seams. There is a phrase from this time which describes the state of the nation - "radeloos, redeloos, reddeloos," which translates into something like "without leadership, without reason, and without possibility of salvation." Though they were able to fight off the armies which threatened to wipe them off the map, the economy was hopelessly devastated and would remain so for centuries. A leadership crisis emerged, and for the next hundred years the country was ruled by the nephews and cousins of previous rulers, who had grown up fat and wealthy and had no idea how to govern what remained of the country. While the average citizen became horribly poor and hopeless, the ineffective leaders continued to live in mansions and eat off of silver plates, and they turned to increasingly nefarious tactics to prop up their economy. They magnified the slave trade a thousand fold, and started using increasingly brutal tactics to retain control over their colonies, which were taken away from them by their enemies one by one. They invested in pet projects and other tremendous wastes of money which did little to help the country or its economy. For instance, the remaining few Dutch of this period who still had some wealth spent a lot of it financing the rebels in America in the late 1700's, largely out of spite against their ancient enemies, the British. But it didn't help, of course. They were invaded by the French and Germans (and English and even Russian armies at some point), and the nation continued along its disastrous trajectory, leading to revolution, invasion, poverty, and death. Lots of death. Many such horrors. The reason why so many Dutch cities have charming 17th century buildings which attract tourists today is that they never recovered economically from the Disaster Year until relatively recently, and for hundreds of years there was little money around for new building projects, and everyone just had to continue living in the houses which were built way back when during "the Golden Age."

So what's the point of this story? There was once a global superpower which was wealthier than any other in history, with a massive and powerful army which it used to terrorize the world, as well as form much of the global capitalist economic system which surrounds us today. But then one day disaster struck and the chickens came home to roost, and it all fell apart overnight. Poof. That's all it takes. And there's a good chance that anyone who is reading this post didn't know any of this. That entire empire so thoroughly destroyed and forgotten (and good riddance), that now, 350 years later very few people in the world know that it ever happened.

The moral of the story is that no matter how wealthy, how powerful the empire which you inhabit is, it is ultimately nothing within the grand scheme of history. Your entire world can just collapse one day, and then a few hundred years later barely anyone alive will know anything about it. Everything which surrounds you and all that you know is ultimately just an insignificant blip on the radar of human progress that can and will be forgotten. All it takes is one strong shock which tears everything apart. And that's what we are witnessing happening in much of the Western world right now. So good luck to everyone with all of that.

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.


we're finally going to Pivot To Asia, something crooked hillary never managed to do!

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Comfy Fleece Sweater posted:

is a vaccine even possible? isn’t it like trying to find a vaccine for the common cold? what if the thing mutates or something?

doesn’t seem so crazy to focus on medication, but also very capitalist because you’d need everyone to buy in

the common cold isn't one disease, it's a suite of symptoms caused by a number of different viruses

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Notorious R.I.M. posted:

Definitely feels like a fresh wave of denial has swept the US this week. A lot of misplaced optimism that we're actually suppressing cases rather than just slowing growth.

Not much discussion of our test capacity plateauing.

the model says we hit peak, we're there, it's over by may easy peasy

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Homeless Friend posted:

[COVID-19 April] We urgently ask you, send execution drug supplies to hospitals

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Solarin posted:

sedatives used to murder prisoners are also used in treating severe corona cases, or something.

EXECUTIONS CURE CORONA

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

this week we get to learn exactly how effective the US lockdowns have been compared to other countries

IHME estimates we hit peak deaths 3 days ago, any bets on what things look like on wednesday?

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.


is the UP supposed to be a separate city-state or what

anyways, looking forward to being the first region in our timeline to stop receiving regular supplies when interstate trade breaks down. hope our deer really don't have CWD

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Been watching the IHME for a few days. Took a couple screenshots after the last two model updates because there's ~zero~ backwards-looking validation going on.

Their model is a loving joke and it does everyone a disservice that they made such a slick, confidence-inspiring interface with nice smooth lines.



While posting this I noticed today's numbers came out. 153 deaths.

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Malcolm XML posted:

from https://covid.arena-ai.com/ (also not a great model but)

>The IHME team’s model is not an epidemiological model but an empirical one, based on the assumption that the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths follows a specific curve shape / trajectory in time, and that this curve “shape” should be shared across countries and states. This model is also trained on deaths (as opposed to confirmed cases) over time – an explicit choice by the IHME to ensure the model is robust against observational bias in testing.

like it says on the box, the only real intended decision making use for this model is to put numbers and timing on possible peak resource needs

however they have so little confidence in their model that the bounds are a full order of magnitude apart and they still suggest basing decisions off the upper bound, which they recognize as being overly pessimistic

it's an interesting research project for a few grad students to work on internally (in which their advisor should have quietly told them to try again when they chose a gaussian) but absolutely shameful as the public-facing centerpiece for the pandemic response of a quarter-billion-dollar-plus health metrics institute

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Bullfrog posted:

just gather up all the boomers who want america to "#reOpen" and put them on one big applebees cruise ship called the SS Corona.

Applebees buffets on every floor

windows where you can order applebees directly connected to every room. just pounds and pounds of free apps unleashed from the ceiling every night.

The passengers descend upon the rows and rows of Top Quality Applebees food like a writhing mass, gorging upon every crumb of chicken tendies and every drop of off-tasting margarita aligned on tables in every hallway.

in quadrant 4E, a boomer coughs a bit before chugging a tall glass of mayo. probably just cus it's a little spicy.

probably.

drowing in apps, wrapped in apps, with an app nose and app feet, fully appetized and loving it

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

i say swears online posted:

lol sometimes i use an online fourteen-day forecast for my city and i swear the last five or six days every time is just regression toward the seasonal mean

Still following Michigan's IHME death projections. A linear model, which for the time horizon probably has at least as much epidemiological validity as IHME's gaussian, projects we'll cross the upper confidence bound on April 19.

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

A HORNY SWEARENGEN posted:

LOL if you eat food grown, packaged, or sold in the United States.

I'm not in favor of abolishing the government. I just want to shrink it down to the size where it'll drown in its own lung juice.

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Pretty rad dad pad posted:

hi from one of those. I'm surprised we didn't get anything from the last wave of skiers a month or so ago but we seem to have dodged that bullet apart from a couple of people at fly-in lodges. masks are veeery slowly starting to happen. there was a big facebook argument between the town chud community and the hippies about masks. the hippies sort of won when someone pointed out that the chud grandmas who were getting pissy about masks were the people who could make and sell homemade ones so now a bunch of them are doing that and pushing people to wear them lol

definitely a lot of people who go into town twice a month anyway getting mad about only going into town twice a month though

being rural as gently caress is awesome right now (lots of space to recreate, only two confirmed cases in a hundred mile radius) but everyone is bracing for the inevitable

our icu capacity is functionally zero, there’s very little communication from the health department, and the hospitals are getting guidance they expect to have a delayed wave here. very old, vulnerable populations in these small towns, so even the local chuds are taking it pretty seriously afaict.

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.


[COVID-19 April] The Corpse of Rights

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Heartcatch posted:

Wait, I thought chuds hated globalism?

if the authority figure makes decisions I don’t like, clearly they were just too low on the authoritarian totem pole

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

LimburgLimbo posted:

Haven't seen much organized, though there's individual jackasses.

Keep in mind that the protests we've seen are really small in numbers; the biggest is a couple hundred I think? Maybe 300? They're very much a lunatic fringe; still sad, but finding a few hundred gullible Americans is not exactly a challenge.

Remember that this too is a way for media outlets to make money. If you look at videos where they pan around to show the whole protesting crowd it's really small numbers in each one that I've seen; if anyone finds numbers that are larger or video proof I'm all ears.

reminder that literally millions of people protested the iraq war and received only a minimum of coverage and zero action because the networks and everyone in charge were so bloodthirsty

the size of the crowd means nothing at all

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Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.


l m a o @ just $60b for "underbanked" businesses

gotta make sure those funds get funneled straight to the publicly-traded companies, many of whom are probably just taking the 1% interest loan and not paying gently caress-all to anyone under the $100k/yr cap. why the gently caress would these HBS-run hellholes go through the trouble of tracking down and "rehiring" their former employees just to incur the overhead of being a pass-through entity for a bunch of minimum wage serfs they know they won't even try to put to work until they see demand rebound? use the money to pay out investors and upper management for another year and write it all off when you inevitably file for bankruptcy and jump ship.

also "underbanked" is such a great way to twist the knife on personal responsibility, and really makes the democrats look like they're just out to protect a bunch of losers who can't business good.

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