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Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Jordan Davis owns. He’s big and fast who cares about technique that’s for cheaters

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Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Doltos posted:

Plus this is the Daniel Faalele year finally, even if he does suck.

Reminder for everyone: Faalele is the Australian born, 7ft 400 pound offensive tackle for the Minnesota gophers.

He probably has a blue ox.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

You raise good points but otoh Jordan Davis is 6’6” and 340 and I love him.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Hizawk posted:

The Lions are on the clock.

I'm Gonna get real invested in the draft this year.

It's a really good draft for defense. If the Lions go defense with their two firsts and their second, they could have the beginning of something great in a year or two.

e: then they would still have a bad enough W-L record the following season to get a top pick for a QB

Ornery and Hornery fucked around with this message at 17:12 on Nov 28, 2021

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Thank you for the effort post

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Who are the best centers in this class and how thicc(c) are they?

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

TheGreyGhost posted:

Just draft the Iowa guy and don’t think about it for 10 years

290 pounds???

what a world

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Which RB is most like Marshawn Lynch in this draft?

E: What RB is most like Jamaal Charles in this draft?

Ornery and Hornery fucked around with this message at 17:51 on Dec 10, 2021

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Professor Funk posted:

Daniel Jeremiah posted his first mock. Feel like it cuts against the conventional wisdom in a lot of ways (Gardner CB1/Stingley CB3, Burks WR1, Devin Lloyd in the top 10, thinks Thibs might slide, etc.). Also Jameson Williams falling to the Chiefs, which would just be :lol:.

https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-2022-nfl-mock-draft-1-0-kenny-pickett-malik-willis-among-3-qbs

He has TB picking at 31 and GB picking at 32.

That’s not how things work.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

TheGreyGhost posted:

Correct--but you can totally run around him right now.

I love him as a developmental prospect but holy poo poo did they not teach him how to pass set any better at Minnesota. Although to be fair, nothing that offense did appeared competent or fun.

He’s the perfect prospect quit hating :mad:

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

He should go to the jets to continue their accrual of big bois

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Teams who spend firsts on things other than OL are idiot


E: they can have first round qbs too, I guess

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Chucktesla posted:

https://twitter.com/MHolder95/status/1488585802447679488?t=Xlro4Ve17D4ZAdiwdD1h-A&s=19

Seems like some of the tackle prospects had a hard time in the 1-on-1s today

Draft the blocker and the rusher they will both be great

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Who are the number 2 and 3 centers? What rounds do you see them going in and what’s the drop off from Lindy to them?

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Give me Williams or give me Dotson.

All speed all the time.

The rrrrrraiders.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Instead of drafting rbs before round 5, teams should instead draft more OL

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Omnikin posted:

If you don't have the best OL in the league, scrap the season & try again next year tbh

Someone around these parts is finally talking some sense

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

YOLOsubmarine posted:

The Saints making Allen the head coach means they probably aren’t going the fire sale route.

they have a choice?

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

I will take both of those players. I propose to give my third and fourth round picks.


E: Rumors swirling that Davenport might be in the trade market. 1) is that likely? 2) what would he cost in picks and 3) is he gonna be good?

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020


Why isn’t the grey ghost included?

I blame politics.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020


Charles Cross sure is divisive

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

TheGreyGhost posted:

If you want a rough idea of where I sit on a bunch of these dudes, BR somehow has the most reasonable list of those--which feels insane to say. It's kind of amazing how much better their coverage has been since they shitcanned Matt Miller and hired a new department, though that's not saying much since Miller is essentially just Todd McShay for a digital era. If you average their coverage with what you get out of an old stalwart like ESPN that still toes the line about "prototypes" and whatever else, you can actually get a healthy/semi-complete birdseye view. I'd say for the first 25 names on the list, that's pretty accurate. They're way too high on Olave and way too

In fact, here's a fun breakdown of draft coverage because even I'm not above extremely meta commentary.


Kiper--Has lost a lot his luster over the years now that every time he fucks up we get an awesome YTMND style video of him screaming that Jamarcus Russell will be a god or something but gets a worse rap than he probably deserves. If you're trying to place him, he's the Schefter of draft world--says a lot of very obvious things but frequently toes the line in the direction of "what x front office wants me to say" and "safe prototype who meets size/speed but isn't freakish". He's lost in time a little bit too--if you watch his evaluation of QBs or OL, he's clearly still trying to do it himself which means he's evaluating things like 80s Parcells at times. 3 draft stars out of 5

McShay--Where Kiper makes up for his shortcomings by sheer force of will and networking, McShay does it with boyish charm and being a decent sideline reporter on occasion. He has easily the hottest takes of anyone in this space--shout out to Mitch Leidner, a man Todd McShay thought could be a first rounder until like halfway through his final season. Generally speaking, if Kiper reflects the desires of GMs and an old model of player evaluation, McShay is drafting like it's Madden--gently caress awareness or route running, gimme the freaks. He'll swing on guys with crazy athletic profiles or "sleepers" that are a favor to agents. Worst QB evaluations in the field, and I genuinely mean that. Seems like a nice dude at least. 2 draft stars out of 5

Miller--Somehow failed upwards to an ESPN/Substack type presence. He's most well known for his extremely mind-numbing 7-round drafts and his weird obsession with like round 3-7 guys as though there's a huge arbitrage opportunity that's he's somehow going to spot more than anyone else. The first tell if a draft guy is full of poo poo is if they're more focused on the picks and draft itself than talking about prospects. The second tell is if the guy is constantly trying to shovel attention at minor prospects because they can't see what's actually good/bad with the elite ones and need to be able to talk about something obvious. Somehow, he's been a consistently horrible QB evaluator despite seemingly prioritizing the same things most modern QB evals want. Another dude where he seems decent but just deeply overmatched and focused on the wrong things--though he arguably does a better job of being McShay than McShay at this point. 3 draft stars out of 5

The CBS guys: Edwards, Wilson, Trapasso--While ESPN keeps playing the hits, most of the others have started throwing money at modernizing their draft coverage, which has generally been a boon. These guys have a pretty healthy view of most prospects, and they tend to share bylines, which means I think some of the nuclear takes probably get moderated. They tend to overrate competition level at points (there's not really much difference between P5 leagues for draft projects), but I do appreciate that they have a healthy skepticism of the physical freaks who haven't produced versus the ones who have. If you check their board now for example, Thibs is one, while Ojabo is 46. That's not to say Ojabo can't be good--it's just a healthy illustration of risk comparatively. If I'm pointing to a weakness, they tend to be fairly fawning in their individual prospect profiles, usually Trapasso but not always, and they rely on counting stats to some extent with DBs which happens a lot since the ideal DB should essentially record no stats if they've not being thrown at. 4 draft stars out of 5.

Bleacher Report: Tice, Thorn, Klassen, Giddings, Sobleski--Maybe the most night/day shift in coverage over the years. Matt Miller loved to post weird hot takes and what ifs that won't happen because most of his takes were about like "WHAT IF THIS 3RD ROUND TRADE HAPPENED AND BOTH WERE PRO BOWLERS" or like odd takes about how this QB is so limitless if only he had every actually shown it. Tice is a legitimately good QB eval guy, though I think he drastically overestimates "Pro Readiness" to be in terms of systems at times. He has a POV that's legitimately interesting though, because he won't elevate every dude as though they could change a franchise which is refreshing . Thorn and Klassen are the underrated stars of Draft Twitter now. They've got a more coherent view of line play than anyone out there, and their ability to project T vs IOL and understand the nuances of what's on tape is essentially unparalleled for coverage now. If I'm pointing to a weakness, they kept Matt Miller's stupid number system that tries to quantify prospect quality on a 10.0-3.0 scale which always hurts my head to see on the page. 4 draft stars out of 5

The Athletic--What people think Kiper is, Bob McGinn actually is. If you like reading the palace intrigue/team eval side with less smoke screens that ESPN/mainstream draft twitter, Bob has a better filter on it than 90% of draftniks. The rest of the athletic coverage has been all over the place from what I've read. Dane Bugler has been a fixture for a while and does some okay mock work but generally has a very "5 things from the senior bowl" type POV that falls a bit flat next to someone like a McGinn. I think a bunch of his player evals are rooted in a desire to be either full conventional wisdom or contrarian with zero in-between. I haven't read many of the other guys here, but I have to assume they're a bit closer to the teams than most places, albeit the prospect evals probably suffer from homerisms as a result. Still worth checking out. 5 draft stars out of 5.

The Ringer--Danny Kelly generally understands player types and tendencies very well when he looks to make player comparisons or projections. You can tell exactly where his editors get mad and make him make a player comp or tease some nuance out of a comparison, and you can also tell exactly where he's under editorial mandate to hype some QBs or edge guys to get page clicks. He usually overrates QBs/Edges/WRs/CBs, again largely for clicks, but the actual content of the breakdowns usually isn't wrong, just with a clear bend on how he would build a team. Easily the best interface of any of these sites right now. I get the feeling if they added some bodies, they could legitimately have a decent operation if they had someone to temper Danny's valuations a touch. 3 stars out of 5.

NFL.com--Jesus. Chad Reuter is a hack, but I don't know what anyone expects. He loves his mocks and trades and will frequently bump prospects around to make mock draft choices seem less insane. He's a guy who has drastically overcorrected for the Josh Allen/Mahomes hits and is doing things like "Malik Willis QB1" now, on top of pumping the cinderella/narrative stories like Hutchison. Safely ignore. 1 star out of 5

Yahoo--The lukewarmest operation out there. They occupy the space BR used to of essentially aggregating opinions and reading tea leaves. They've done essentially no coverage so far this year, so may be shuttering a bit, but they're mainly only useful as a composite of sorts that reads like how the average person would synthesize other places--not bad, just not particularly insightful.

This is legit a valuable effort post.

I will now exclusively look at BR, the athletic, and of course TGG’s post history

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

TheGreyGhost posted:

I hated him and thought there was no way he and Allen could live up to their raw arm talent with the mechanics and decision making they had, much less the lack of touch.

Goes to show that certain orgs and coaches, combined with guys who put in time and are smart/coachable, can actually make the projects work now.

sounds to me like the moral of the story is that the coaches and work environment are hugely influential which makes evaluating prospects even more difficult because backwards looking comparative studies are muddled by discrepancies in coaching staff!

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

A lot of draft pundits are saying that it’s a deep class at OT.

I will ignore all of them.

I’m excited to read your review of what type of OTs will be available at the top of the second. I hope great ones!

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

TheGreyGhost posted:

Daniel Faalele - Minnesota
I'm very very upset at what's happened to our boy in college. First off, let's just clear this up, he's the absolute largest loving T prospect in history man. He's 6'9 380, and I think that underlists his weight. Much less, he's so goddamn fast for that weight. He might run a 5.0 flat and a respectable 3-cone. You want length in a tackle prospect? He'll give you some length and an absolutely laughable amount of power to his punches. Really, that leads into his strengths--his initial punch and ability to drive, reach, or just anchor are like watching a defender face a robot made of tungsten and hate. When he gets leverage and a hand in the right spot, you die. If you go directly at him, you die. Your best hope is having a very technical speed rusher who can bend the tiny margin of space needed to get around him who can take advantage of his hand placement being very green, grabby, and inconsistent.

So why am I so sad? Because he could be the greatest T prospect of all time if he went somewhere that ran an actual offense. If you haven't watched the recent Minnesota offense, I can't stress enough how unfun and terrible it is to watch. They run a lot of zone blocking, particularly tight/inside zone with wide/outside as a counter move and heavy cutback ability. Zone blocking and cutbacks can be fun to watch, but the way Minnesota runs it, they essentially just call "everyone block left and the back will figure it out". It almost reads like a running play with no actual aims other than to hit people and hope the RB figures it out. So, he's going to be essentially new to power/counter principles, and you're going to need to fix his understanding of how far to go on zone blocks, but those are all things you can learn if you're this athletic. Oh, he also has one of the worst vertical pass sets (or lack thereof) you'll ever see. Essentially, he treats every rep like quick game where he over punches and can get countered easily. Now, because he's huge, that gives some margin because a guy still has to get around him, but it's going to be dicey if he went somewhere like KC and they asked him to hold up downfield. Someone's gotta figure out how to get him to tamp down and mirror on long drops. He's also very easy to spoof with stunts/pulls. He'll hit you if he sees you, but he doesn't always see you. He's also pretty tall in his pad level at times, but I don't think that's going to kill him at this weight even if it isn't necessarily ideal. I think he could be a valuable piece in an RPO/Quick game heavy offense or one where the TE is lined up to his side a bunch to force a LB/DE to declare what they're doing, but he's very raw and absolutely incapable of being a LT at present. He's like a mega-size/speed DJ Fluker right now.
Hell yeah this is perfect for my team.

If he was a polished tackle he'd go early first.

As is.... Do you think Faalele will last to the second round?

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

I am officially calling "dibs" on Faalele for whenever the TFF mock draft happens. Even if I'm not in the mock draft. Especially then.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Diva Cupcake posted:

If you like Brandon Thorn, his OL writeups require a sub I think.
https://trenchwarfare.substack.com/p/ol-scouting-notebook-senior-bowl?s=r

That you for sharing!

quote:


7.5-7.9: Potential impact player/Second round

52. Daniel Faalele, OT, Minnesota (7.6)

HEIGHT: 6'8 1/8"

WEIGHT: 387


POSITIVES

— Smooth mover at 387 pounds, with light feet to get out of his stance and to his spot quickly in his 45-degree pass sets.

— Massive mountain of a man who can blot out defenders once he gets his hands on them with the body control to mirror and stay attached to blocks (play-action jump sets, second level).

— Shows good mobility, pad level and easy power in the run game on down and kick-out blocks to cave in and move defenders off the spot.

— Good athletic ability and fluidity on his backside cutoffs and climbs to the second level to line up moving targets with the length and heavy-handedness to deliver jolt on contact.

— Excels using the gallop technique to knock over and feed the 3-technique on Deuce blocks and double-teams.

— Well-versed run-blocker with experience executing a diverse blend of concepts in Minnesota's multiple run scheme.


NEGATIVES

— Persistently oversets widely aligned rushers to open the door for inside counters. Tardy redirecting, power stepping and cutting off inside penetration.

— Needs to have better control on rushers up the arc to prevent losing late inside at the top of the quarterback's drop.

— Can let his pads rise and hands get wide on initial contact, which can lead to a delayed anchor against the bull rush.


2021 STATISTICS

— 12 starts at right tackle.

— First-team All-Big Ten selection.


NOTES

— Originally from Melbourne, Australia, where he played basketball and rugby before moving to Florida to attend IMG Academy. Played one year of football there before committing to Minnesota.

— 31 career starts at right tackle.

— Played the bulk of his college career at 400 pounds before dropping around 25 pounds prior to the 2021 season to improve his movement skills.


OVERALL

Faalele is a three-year starter for offensive line coach Brian Callahan inside Minnesota's multiple run scheme. He has an enormous, thick frame and build with strikingly light feet and ease of movement out of his stance and out in space as a lead blocker.


Faalele has been an impact run-blocker for the Gophers with the pad level and power to cave in defenders on down blocks to create massive lanes on off-tackle runs and widen defensive ends on frontside kick-out blocks. He shows an impressive understanding of how to track smaller targets by adjusting his angle when necessary, with heavy hands to deliver knockback power on contact.

Faalele uses good quickness out of his stance on 45-degree and jump sets to get to his spot, cover up rushers and stay leveraged on blocks once engaged. However, he does have a bad habit of oversetting widely aligned rushers, with a need to play inside-out more consistently to avoid opening the door inside. Faalele's hands are powerful, but his strike timing and placement (wide) are inconsistent, allowing crafty rushers easy access to his frame.

Overall, Faalele has an enticing blend of size, ease of movement and natural power with some notable refinement as a run-blocker. He will likely need to have some schemed help as a pass protector for his first few years as a starter while he refines his set points and use of hands, but his relative lack of time playing football and tools suggest he can continue improving the finer aspects of the position while being an asset in the run game right away.


GRADE: 7.6 (Potential Impact Player - 2nd Round)

OVERALL RANK: 52

POSITION RANK: OT6

PRO COMPARISON: Jordan Mailata

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

no qb chat until some team adopts the Trubs :mad:

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

TheGreyGhost posted:

With a gun to my head, if I’m drafting for the average NFL team this year:

Corral
Pickett
Ridder
Strong
Willis
Howell

That said, I wouldn’t take anyone outside of the top 2 in the first personally. Everyone else is a partial project at minimum.

Okay but what if my you were drafting for a 70 year old coach who loves pounding the rock? Also, what qb looks best in ACTION GREEN?

Seattle needs a qb to hand that ball off.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

TheGreyGhost posted:

Honestly Ridder wouldn’t be the worst fit in Seattle, nor would Willis. Basically the only guy I think would be a lovely fit there is like Corral for lack of elite downfield velocity and Strong for lack of mobility.


I still think corral is the best QB in this class right now, but I think at least one of the other guys is going to pass him by mid year if the light comes on at all for one of the high ceiling guys.

Okay thank you.

From your fingertips to goodells microphone #blessed

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Helllooooo nurse

https://twitter.com/betmgm/status/1489015293255032841?s=21

Also

https://twitter.com/ryan_pod/status/1490066001219796994?s=21

Ornery and Hornery fucked around with this message at 06:57 on Mar 11, 2022

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

TheGreyGhost posted:

If we’re doing a “giveth, taketh away” thing, I…uh…I’m not sure Pete’s going to know what Malik needs to reach his potential. Wilson was a polished enough prospect that with 4 more inches of height he doesn’t get out of the top 10. Malik needs a complete mechanical overhaul and to get taught enough protections to not die. He’s instinctive and can physically do literally anything, but no one has ever forced him to drill technique consistently to get those peak abilities/throws out of him with regularity. If you got his 25th percentile throws looking like the 75th percentile ones, he could be special, but that’s an obscene amount of work for even good coaches with quarterbacks.

I am well aware that Wilson was basically a perfect prospect outside of height. I am well aware that Wilson’s successful growth into an elite qb was largely independent of Pete. I was just making that very case in the N/V thread or NFC W thread. Wilson was basically going to be a great qb no matter where he went. He has that inner drive and constant hunger for improvement:

Shucks, Pete’s influence was likely at best agnostic towards Wilson’s growth and at worst a hinderance. Imagine Russ with a good OL and receiving corp and a McVay calling plays.

From what you’ve shared and from what I’ve observed of the last decade of Pete Carroll and John S, then there is almost no chance that any qb from this draft will be even close to a great franchise QB, if drafted by Seattle.

But if you think “evidence” or “logic” is going to stop me from hooting and hollering that Seattle is winning the super bowl this coming 2022 season… buckaroo I’ve got a bridge to sell ya. It’s time to bet the kids college funds and we’re putting it all on Malik “double zeros” Willis.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020


You know darn well he doesn’t count

He was cleansed and reborn in waters of SWAMP

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020


Sure I’d enjoy that gentleman for Seattle.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Sauce seems good, but stingley freshman tape is out of the world.

I hope at least one of them makes it to number 9.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

TheGreyGhost posted:

(On Derek Stingley)
Factor in too that the first thing corners stop doing when they get hurt is tackling high, and I'm not going to fuss too much about it. His worst tape was against Devonta Smith in 2020, but so was everyone's that year, especially when he had no help on defense. He absolutely locked his matchup down against Bama the year prior and destroyed George Pickens and Demetris Robertson in the SECCG when he got a chance. If you want to say he was low effort or willingness the last two seasons, I'll counter that's on the coaching staff given everything we saw out of him in '19 versus what we've been told what the issues with that staff in '20 and '21. Guy's proven he can do it before. The tape is the tape, but a guy who can do that at 18 at corner doesn't suddenly lose the ability.

TheGreyGhost posted:

Stingley though, I am a bit concerns about the Lisfranc at this point. I still think he’s going to be really good but I get very nervous about foot injuries with corners because there’s essentially no portion of the game where it’s not at risk. I still think he’s worth a first and the best corner in the draft if healthy, but that’s a brutal injury.

:mad:

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

TheGreyGhost posted:

Ranking upside:

Willis
Ridder
Corral
Strong
Pickett
Howell

Ranking floor:
Pickett
Corral
Ridder
Strong
Howell
Willis

TGG - do you have an updated listed of this for QBs?

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020


The type of behavior expected if Trump were a QB coach.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

I am warming up to the idea of Ridder in the second or Strong in the fourth.

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Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Don’t disparage Drew he’s gonna be Seattle’s next bLOCKbuster qb!!!

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