READ OP! War in Ukraine: a distressed blender making too many margaritas at once

The Something Awful Forums > Archives > Comedy Goldmine > The Goodmine > READ OP! War in Ukraine: a distressed blender making too many margaritas at once

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a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

Sounds like the Russian govt are only recognising the breakaway states within the current larea control rather than claiming the whole of the two oblasts. So basically status quo ante except the Russian soldiers are wearing their actual uniforms.

# ¿ Feb 22, 2022 11:47

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# ¿ May 11, 2024 17:08

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

TheRat posted:

Also Russian gas to Europe went uphttps://twitter.com/business/status/1497149774692298754

Russian gas currently transiting through Ukraine? Why hasn't Ukraine closed the taps?

# ¿ Feb 25, 2022 12:04

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

Sir Bobert Fishbone posted:

https://twitter.com/rianru/status/1497177100943564803

Russian state media reporting that Putin is ready to begin negotiating.

Yes but his negotiating position is that Ukraine surrenders and disarms. This is purely for domestic consumption to make it look like he's being reasonable.

# ¿ Feb 25, 2022 13:02

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

Saladman posted:

The Netherlands (sorry, maybe that should just be "Netherlands") takes 10x more refined petroleum from Russia than Germany? I mean I don't doubt the data, just that's very surprising. What's the explanation?

The Dutch have a major oil company and the Germans don't.

# ¿ Feb 25, 2022 13:06

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

Nenonen posted:

Rest assured, Ukraine, your northern ally is coming to save you

https://twitter.com/Yleisradio/status/1497182918850064387?cxt=HHwWhsC5ndX7h8cpAAAA

"Yle appeals to European Broadcasting Union to bar Russia out of Eurovision Song Contest. Yle will not send a contestant to ESC if Russia is let to participate."

This is probably the most serious sanction that has been proposed so far.

# ¿ Feb 25, 2022 13:34

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

EvilHawk posted:

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1497235734100516868

Lack of air superiority is surprising, there's not been any air battles observed like there was yesterday. I guess we'll see tonight when the inevitable shelling starts.

It does seem like the Russians entirely failed to take out Ukrainian anti air defenses yesterday and have had to ground most of their air forces today. The Ukrainians also can't put anything in the air but it means that it's entirely a ground battle which suits Ukrainian anti tank defences who can operate with near impunity as they aren't at risk of Russian air support.

Knock on wood The Russians seem to have hosed this up massively and I'm kind of expecting Putin to declare victory as soon as he can.

# ¿ Feb 25, 2022 16:59

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

https://twitter.com/ptskialadze_g/status/1497251401520463874

take back abkhazia and south ossetia georgia. russia's all tied up.

Lol I was having a shower thought earlier of "if 30-50% of the Russian army is tied down in Ukraine who is going to bail out Russia's puppets in central Asia and the Caucasus" and well.

Honestly if this ends with Russia failing to win in Ukraine, another eastward expansion of NATO, and a weakening of Russian power in Asia it will be just desserts.

# ¿ Feb 25, 2022 18:17

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

DeliciousPatriotism posted:

big post

Just want to quote this to confirm that based on personal experience most Russians are extremely cool and fun people and it sucks that they are ruled by war mongering gangsters.

# ¿ Feb 25, 2022 20:02

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

The british govt don't think the Russians have actually taken Melitopol.

# ¿ Feb 26, 2022 09:48

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

TulliusCicero posted:

...This is starting to beg the question based on the looting we have seen and abandoned Russian vehicles elsewhere, what exactly IS the Russian supply line situation logistically?

If your troops are looting for food and warm clothes it tells me things are way rougher than they even appear. I imagine the sanctions will only continue to make conditions deteriorate.

I think they assumed it would have all finished already and they would be able to fly supplies in. They've definitely run out of momentum and are just flailing now.

E: if they ramp up sanctions I wonder how putin is going to pay all these soldiers.

# ¿ Feb 26, 2022 09:55

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

TulliusCicero posted:

So uh honest question?

Why are the Russians not going for ground assaults on Kyiv from their very clearly easy position of a few hundred kilometers from the border of Belarus, and not ya know, continuing to do these idiotic and risky airdrops that have yielded little gain so far?

How many of your transport planes need to be shot down before you realize you don't even have air superiority, let alone supremacy'?

I think they know that if they tell a bunch of untrained poorly supplied conscripts to match into a Kiev their army is going to desert or mutiny, or best case be thoroughly defeated and forced to retreat. All the real fighting is being done by paratroopers but they are so outnumbered they can't hold anything they take.

# ¿ Feb 26, 2022 10:18

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

Charlz Guybon posted:

Bridge layer wrecked

https://mobile.twitter.com/XyKyiv/status/1497494447285841923

Jesus, getting increasing Chechnya vibes from all this footage of wrecked and abandoned Russian equipment.

# ¿ Feb 26, 2022 10:22

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

TheCardhouse posted:

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497448514254782469

Now that's something I wouldn't have expected a couple of days ago. Putin might be in real trouble if this isn't over soon.

# ¿ Feb 26, 2022 10:32

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

Cyprus now agreeing to block Russia from SWIFT. If they are on board I imagine it will happen by the end of today.

# ¿ Feb 26, 2022 10:35

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

Trump posted:

From who? We'll see these dissidents arrested, before Putin becomes threatened. And if he actually starts feeling the nation turn against him, shits going to get ugly.

Palace coup. I'm not suggesting an imminent return to democracy it will be "Putin has temporarily gone to his Dacha for health rest. Faceless state security officer #354 is now in charge"

# ¿ Feb 26, 2022 10:43

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

Slashrat posted:

The stranded armor in the middle of nowhere puzzles me. I'm aware heavy military vehicles consume a lot of fuel, but presumably you know how much fuel you'll need to get somewhere, and if you need to refuel along the way to reach it. If you need to refuel, you'd presumably wait at some staging point for it before continuing, not just press on until you go completely dry all alone.

Poor crew training is an obvious explanation, but does anyone know of any other possible reasons for this?

Given how disorganised things seem they've probably set off with the expectation that the units ahead of them have set up resupply posts but are finding that hasn't been done or that the supplies never arrived. They then set off in hope that the situation at the next one is better but can't make it.

Also if there is an attack up ahead they may be idling for longer than anticipated as the advance stops and starts.

# ¿ Feb 26, 2022 11:18

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

surf rock posted:

Honestly, like China abstaining on the security council resolution, that might be enough to make a lot of Chinese citizens oppose the war. This invasion is about as clear-cut immoral aggression as you can get; virtually every nation not deeply in Russia's pocket has condemned it, there are protests against it all over the world and even big ones in Russia itself. Any population that isn't getting fed pure pro-Putin propaganda 24/7 is probably going to be against the war. Maybe that doesn't matter given China's authoritarian government, but given the amount of monitoring of the populace they do and the domestic strife they've had over time, I wouldn't be surprised to see China's diplomatic position continue shifting to more of an anti-war stance.

Yeah it's important to remember that China and Russia share a massive border and a conflicting sphere of interest in central Asia. If the Russians are clearly getting their poo poo pushed in then I could easily see China do a volte face to take advantage of Russian weakness. China can go it alone and doesn't have any interest being tied to a bear in it's death throes

# ¿ Feb 26, 2022 17:03

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

ronya posted:

https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1497590912146358275

Moving to back up a siege of Kyiv?

That is very interesting as I'd assumed at some point they were going to have to try and shut the border to stop arms arriving from Poland.

# ¿ Feb 26, 2022 17:31

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

steinrokkan posted:

My brain no understand economic good, but wouldn't Russia's central bank assets be deposited domestically?

As Russia needs to sell a lot of fossil fuels in dollars and euros and then buy goods in those same currencies a major part of their reserves will be banked with the Federal Reserve and the ECB so they don't have to covert them to roubles. This is why some currencies are called "reserve currencies" because countries maintain a large portion of their reserves in these currencies instead of their own.

# ¿ Feb 26, 2022 18:57

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

Pook Good Mook posted:

This is a good post.

I think it was 10 years ago but I remember news stories about Russia and Gulf States trying to come up with an alternative to the dollar for trading your oil for exactly this reason.

I did a master's degree focused on the Russian economy about 13 years ago and that post is basically all I remember from that time :haw:

# ¿ Feb 26, 2022 19:12

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

the freezing of the russian central banks assets is enormous. The russian government has been desperately trying to prop up the rouble for the last few days, with their foreign reserves frozen you are very much in a hyperinflation situation as they try to keep the economy liquid. Expect runs on banks and sovereign debt defaults.

# ¿ Feb 26, 2022 23:35

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

TheRat posted:

Will they be able to liquidate what germany and italy are currently paying them for a steady flow of gas?

Probably not because that's going to be paid in Euros and the russian goverment can't convert those Euros into Roubles. They could just do a zimbabwe and start allowing people to use Euros but that is a massive legitimacy hit for the goverment.

# ¿ Feb 26, 2022 23:36

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

People need to be able to get access to those euros though

It would have to be Chinese yuan or Indian rupees lol

Yeah the only realistic way I see out of this is the Chinese government buying roubles for yuan to try and prop up the Russian but I think 1. they don't actually give enough of a poo poo about helping the Russians, and 2. It would mean Putin was entirely in hock to the Chinese which again is a massive legitimacy hit.

# ¿ Feb 26, 2022 23:43

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

Yeah Merkel would have absolutely done nothing in this situation and it's pretty ridiculous to pretend otherwise. She was a major part of the inertia in Germany foreign policy that everyone is have to overcome.

# ¿ Feb 26, 2022 23:45

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

cinci zoo sniper posted:

They are not too hot to help Russia financially, if I had to guess.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-25/chinese-state-banks-restrict-financing-for-russian-commodities

Yeah unsurprising. I fully expect that China is quietly pissed off with Putin for causing a ruckus and unifying NATO and are more than happy to let the Russian economy collapse and have another basket case they can "save" with foreign investment.

# ¿ Feb 26, 2022 23:52

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

It's funny how all the journalists are focusing on the swift ban and just not mentioning the foreign reserve freeze at all despite it being a much bigger deal. I guess "bank transfer won't work" is easier to explain as no normal person actually understands what money is or how it functions.

# ¿ Feb 26, 2022 23:56

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

MikeC posted:

A real possibility though I have yet to see any concrete indication that they are having major supply issues.

The British ministry of defence is providing regular updates, and has very close ties to the Ukrainian armed forces (they've been providing a lot of training and equipment). Their update this afternoon stated that the Russian advance appeared to be slowed by supply shortages.

We obviously won't know for certain until the war is over but it definitely seems to be accepted by more than just posters.

# ¿ Feb 27, 2022 00:03

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

Tomn posted:

Also, I admit I'm not too up on the specifics myself but wasn't there thread discussion earlier about how the SWIFT ban is big, but the central bank asset freeze is bigger? Like, "potentially shatter the Russian economy" big. Which is...admittedly a pretty poo poo deal for the average Russian on the street but I would have thought that would have oligarchs howling as is.

Yes it is huge, and precisely because it hits the real Russian economy and not rich guys in London and Paris like Swift might. Putin's legitimacy rests on the fact that he saved Russia from the economic chaos of the 90s. On Monday the rouble is going to start to collapse as the central bank will be unable to use is Euro assets to service debt and buy roubles to sure up their value. The point where a loaf of bread costs a million roubles and you can't withdraw cash from the bank is the point when ordinary people stop supporting Putin.

# ¿ Feb 27, 2022 07:33

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

virtualboyCOLOR posted:

WTF is this poo poo

It's just classic hur dur person I don't like is gay poo poo

# ¿ Feb 27, 2022 08:04

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

I wish people would stop getting so worked up about SWIFT. SWIFT is the small poo poo that does basically nothing anyway. The big poo poo is freezing the liquidity of the Russian central bank by blocking their access to Euro and Dollar reserves.

# ¿ Feb 27, 2022 08:23

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

Young Freud posted:

There's some unconfirmed reports that 5000 contract soldiers have mutinied or defected and that Putin fired the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces, Valery Gerasimov, at least according to an Ukrainian MP.
https://twitter.com/nadinbrzezinski/status/1497779772109123591?s=20&t=YWSOZX1-jMczBRdEwzuV2A

Can't get into details but I've just heard from a personal source I definitely trust on these sort of things given their background who is confident that the mutiny reports are accurate.

Admittedly I'm just a stranger on the internet so appreciate no one can trust me sharing anonymous second hand sources but I'm certainly pretty excited by it.

# ¿ Feb 27, 2022 09:05

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

Ikasuhito posted:

https://twitter.com/LostWeapons/status/1497845415684685829

"They will greet us as liberators!"

Is it telling that this is yet another video of Russian armour on its own with either no or very limited infantry support? Guys out of the tanks look to just be the tankers with their own personal defence weapons.

# ¿ Feb 27, 2022 09:31

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

Kavros posted:

Why is this a war seemingly featuring fantastically numerous cellphone video'd instances of

1. Russian tanks looking decidedly vulnerable and awkward because they have literally no infantry support around them

2. Russian infantry looking decidedly vulnerable and awkward because they don't seem to have any vehicular support around them

There was a long post about this time yesterday about how Russian command structures are so fractured and ill prepared that individual units are just being sent towards a broad objective with no sort of reconnaissance or cooperation with other units. All the footage of random tanks and convoys getting ambushed does seem to support this.

# ¿ Feb 27, 2022 10:53

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

nurmie posted:

I might've gotten triggered by one of those twitter posts Also, there was that one weird "Putin in His Urals Wolf's Den Summoning the Oligarchs" post that has been shared here and people folks were on the verge of discussing it in a serious manner.

Also, do we have any information as to what's going on around LDNR? IIRC a large part of Ukrainian military is still there, and it's probably where most of the conventional warfare is currently happening (what's currently happening in Kyiv and Kharkiv is more akin to combat recon on Russia's part tbh)

It seems like the Russians haven't made any real push out of the currently held areas in the East and are instead trying to encircle the Ukrainian army by capturing the East bank of the Dnieper in the South and Kharkiv in the north.

# ¿ Feb 27, 2022 11:00

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

Situation in Kiev sounds like it will get pretty bleak very quickly now they are surrounded. Already talk of food shortages so I wonder how long they can realistically hold out.

# ¿ Feb 27, 2022 19:56

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

Old James posted:

I was thinking the same about Chechnya. With their "crack" forces out of town (and getting decimated) this might trigger an uprising against Kadyrov.

Yes I was also thinking about this. The basis of Putin's legitimacy was resurrecting the economy and ending the war in Chechnya, if Kadyrov's forces get thwacked you have to wonder if he can hold things together.

# ¿ Feb 27, 2022 20:52

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

Upgrade posted:

The reason he�s �ok� to send weapons is because that�s how both Russia and the West have chosen to wage war by proxy for decades - or, to put it more simply, Russia isn�t going to go to war with NATO over military hardware

Yeah I think people automatically think of the soviet union in afghanistan but in Vietnam both the US and Soviets were providing tanks and planes etc. I mean not great that we're back in that sort of position but it didn't end in the apocalypse.

# ¿ Feb 27, 2022 22:28

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

Cabbages and Kings posted:

https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1497975994015227907

sorry if this has already been posted.

if someone who speaks russian can verify the translation that would be cool because it's pretty good, even if the concept of a ship of people stuck at sea with dwindling supplies is unfunny horror.

I think it's generally being treated as bullshit made by a georgian ship captain looking to get some social media clout

# ¿ Feb 27, 2022 22:29

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

Mokotow posted:

https://twitter.com/FlyingandLife/status/1498040555108024325?s=20&t=tuR02fWWVCTuTg0Oi3JeDg

Just like this account, I�m watching these two flights that have restricted airspace ahead. Unless some special exception is made, they�ll need to turn around, refuel and� gently caress, I don�t know, go through Africa or round way around through Asia?

Surely if they were already in the air when the announcement was made they'll be allowed to land and then told to gently caress off back to russia asap.

# ¿ Feb 27, 2022 22:30

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# ¿ May 11, 2024 17:08

a pipe smoking dog: Jan 25, 2010; "haha, dogs can't smoke!"

I think the most I'm hoping for is a ceasefire with the promise of future negotiations, and probably a stalemate on something like the current lines of control for the time being. Russia gets to stop the humiliating defeats, look like they're giving peace a chance to get and easing on sanctions, and has crippled Ukraine. Meanwhile Ukraine gets to not get entirely occupied by Russia.

# ¿ Feb 28, 2022 10:07

The Something Awful Forums > Archives > Comedy Goldmine > The Goodmine > READ OP! War in Ukraine: a distressed blender making too many margaritas at once

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