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I wouldn't get too hype over unverified tweets about Russian losses. That said, the Russian army has a long and glorious history of being over hyped and under performing relative to their sheer size and how much the sales copy for their exported weapons systems brags about TENTH GENERATION REACTIVE ARMOR on what are basically repainted T-72 shitbox tanks or whatever.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:30
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I don't have a handle on how motivated Ukrainians are to fight a guerilla war against Russia if Putin actually tries to annex it. Winning the invasion is often the easy part for a would-be conqueror.
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Feb 24, 2022 20:52
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youcallthatatwist posted:Very bad in the broadest sense, like "this should not be happening at all" bad Pretty much this, lots of death and destruction but everything is super vague.
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Feb 24, 2022 21:35
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Winning an invasion is one thing, if Russia tries to annex and occupy Ukraine and there is an insurgency that's a whole other kettle of fish.
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Feb 24, 2022 21:37
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BRAKE FOR MOOSE posted:I don't agree with anyone who thinks Putin is going to have demands that are all palatable to Ukraine, but painting him as an irrational and unreasonable lunatic is also nonsense. This is the outcome of geopolitical jockeying over the status of Ukraine since 2013. Russia's choices are bad for everyone except Russia, and it's up to the international community to also make it a bad choice for Russia. Putin isn't "irrational" in the sense of randomly doing things for literally no reason, true. He wants to own Ukraine so he invaded it. That is rational in a narrow sense because he doesn't care about causing mass death in Ukraine or harming his own people as long as he gets his way and keeps power. I'm not sure this is a very interesting distinction though.
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Feb 25, 2022 18:30
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TheRat posted:This is almost certainly true given how much poo poo was amassed on the border but hasn't been used at all. The Russians undoubtedly have lots of reserves, but leading with poo poo troops when the only way to avoid a quagmire is a lightning quick decapitation is so loving dumb I hope it's true. Wuxi posted:low quality troops like paratroopers and special forces? Also this.
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Feb 26, 2022 11:44
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Play posted:Setbacks or not, unless something changes there is no indication to me that Ukraine can hold out for any substantial length of time. Russia still has plenty of personnel, armor, materiel, missiles, artillery, and everything else they need to conquer Ukraine. They can also get more violent and indiscriminate, and use more powerful weapons than they have. Russia should be able to win the invasion eventually because of sheer numbers. This is not the same as winning the WAR. With outside assistance Ukrainians can kill Russians indefinitely if they want to fight a guerilla war.
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Feb 26, 2022 12:42
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Russia can win the invasion with sheer numbers, probably, but RUSSIA STRONK is a joke and they're underperforming their numbers and the ad copy for their weapon export industry. As per loving usual. And then what? Winning the invasion is the tip of the iceberg, and if Ukranians want to fight and keep being given free Stingers and Javelins via Poland like they're candy on Halloween then it could be an infinite bloodbath for Russia. E: I think for this whole thing to have really worked in Russia's favor they had to instantly decapitate the Ukranian government and military command and make resistance feel pointless. So far the opposite has happened. sean10mm fucked around with this message at 14:07 on Feb 26, 2022 |
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Feb 26, 2022 14:04
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fatherboxx posted:looks like the anti-Javelin cage did not help much Picnic table didn't stop a tandem HEAT warhead spewing jets of molten metal? Big if true.
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Feb 26, 2022 16:15
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ZombieLenin posted:There seems to be air parity right now, which is amazing given Ukraines integrated air defense system is about two generations old; and the Ukrainian Air Force is both much smaller than Russia’s and a generation behind. Big problem would be Ukraine using a bunch of Soviet era stuff that isn't interoperable with NATO gear.
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Feb 26, 2022 16:17
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:what is the ranking for russian army units? like i have no idea what the difference between the 35th and the 76th which everyone seems to think i should know As far as I know the number is just an ID, "guards" units are supposed to be elite/privileged compared to generic units IIRC
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Feb 26, 2022 16:46
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The Kingfish posted:Seems like an insanely bad idea to just hand out thousands of guns to an untrained civilian population. When Ukraine was owned by the USSR they got genocided, what kind of poo poo do you expect Ukranians to do, exactly? Marquess of Queensberry Rules it?
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Feb 26, 2022 18:59
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Russia has a numerical advantage but everything else looks like poo poo. Their newer gear just seems like incremental/marginal improvement over what Ukraine has, rather than generational leaps ahead. Their advanced tanks looked suspiciously like dressed up T-72 shitboxes and die to Javelins just as fast. They can't get air supremacy against MiG-29s and MANPADS, somehow. Their command and control can't seem to coordinate basic poo poo so everything is piecemeal and the most rudimentary infantry-armor-artillery cooperation seems nonexistent. SF units are dropped without fire support far from the conventional forces' reach and keep eating poo poo as a result. Areas get shelled and there is no follow up on the ground. Just basic poo poo that gets a US army captain fired on the spot if they can't sort it out. Russia can win the conventional invasion still with sheer mass, but the cost is going to be stupidly high in lives on both sides, and then what? Neverending insurgency bleeding them out? Did the US Army leave Afghanistan in 2002 because they'd already "won" against initial organized resistance?
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Feb 27, 2022 12:29
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steinrokkan posted:One of the posters in MilHist was a tank commander in the 2003 invasion, he posted to the effect that the main challenge American advancing tanks had, in his experience, was that they didn't have the people and resources to properly process and care for all the soldiers who were trying to surrender to them. Among other things, Iraq wasn't being flooded with fire and forget portable missiles that could 1 hit kill every tank in the US inventory like Ukraine is.
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Feb 27, 2022 13:04
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James Garfield posted:Why do they keep doing this. Did some Russian general's ex-wife marry a paratrooper? Russia has violated Baby's First Airborne Doctrine Lessons so hard in this war that they just have to be deluded into thinking that if they show up with their rad berets everyone will surrender immediately. How they still think that NOW I have no idea.
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Feb 28, 2022 02:39
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Arsenic Lupin posted:What is Baby's First Airborne ...? I know nothing about war. They dropped airborne units far behind enemy lines in broad daylight with no fire support right next to enemy reserves that just ran them over with tanks and shot down their transports with shoulder fired missiles.
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Feb 28, 2022 04:05
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Flesnolk posted:There are like 500 pages since I checked this thread last night, so this one might've been posted already, but what do people think about this thread? It feels like an interesting analysis, and a more sober one than most I've been seeing. With 100x the casualties or something to do it.
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Feb 28, 2022 22:09
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tractor fanatic posted:Can someone explain to me how we can just openly supply Ukraine with weapons and aid the way we are doing? How is it not a major escalation and provocation? Yeah, it was done in all the proxy wars in the past but was it this flagrant? In Vietnam it 100% was by both the PRC and USSR. And the US, obviously.
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Feb 28, 2022 22:17
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Winning the invasion eventually doesn't even mean Russia won in a real sense. People acting like insurgency isn't a thing and "Russia bigger = must win eventually!" is just a huge  in TYOOL 2022.
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Feb 28, 2022 22:23
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KitConstantine posted:So Ukraine isn't just getting planes, they're getting to stage out of Poland, so have planes parked where Russia *shouldn't* hit them. Holy poo poo, flying out of Poland? 
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Feb 28, 2022 22:38
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FishBulbia posted:think its just fake news tbh Yeah they hate Russia but it's a bit much.
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Feb 28, 2022 22:44
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The current government probably won't want to surrender because they know the Russians will murder them, personally.
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Mar 1, 2022 13:11
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Relevant Tangent posted:If they want to fight and die to the last that's a better outcome to them than seeing Ukraine extinguished by a man who doesn't believe it exists. I know one of CSPAM's gimmicks is Holodomor denial for the lulz, but the last time Ukraine was owned by (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 1, 2022 23:10
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Unlikely. Obviously, I'm not a Patriot operator, but my understanding is that a lot of NATO poo poo require university degree to operate, which is why we've been flooding Ukraine specifically with missile launchers that a goat farmer can be trained into over a bottle. I think it depends on how long this drags out. Past a certain point it becomes practical to train Ukrainians on more advanced Western equipment in e.g. Poland and then deliver it. Like training Ukrainians to operate Western tanks is definitely feasible, we train our rednecks with GEDs to do it just fine.  Not saying this is likely by any stretch, but if Poland gave their old Leopard 2 tanks away in return for shiny new M1A2 SEPv3 god killers it would be an insane boost in armor capability for Ukraine.
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Mar 2, 2022 17:23
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Pook Good Mook posted:Poland wouldn't give those away for fear they might be needing them soon. Obviously they get the new tanks first.  This is just theorycrafting so I won't belabor the point, but the US has like 3,700 M1 series tanks in mothballs or something silly like that.
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Mar 2, 2022 17:27
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Imagine thinking after the last 20 years happened that winning the conventional ground invasion means you're winning the war lol
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Mar 3, 2022 15:26
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steinrokkan posted:Especially when the idea of winning looks like this They're going to hit the US GWOT death toll by April or some poo poo.
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Mar 3, 2022 15:28
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DekeThornton posted:Just look at GDP growth for former eastern block countries inside of the EU compared to most outside of it. It's a rather stark difference. How much of this is the EU not accepting countries who aren't on track to do better economically?
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Mar 3, 2022 22:58
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uXs posted:The thing is, does the West even have that much ammunition? Nobody has been really preparing for war for the last decades. In terms of basic small arms ammo, yes, definitely. In terms of Javelins and NLAWS, I dunno.
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Mar 5, 2022 21:42
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A New Dad posted:Russia can steamroll Ukraine whenever it wants militarily Is that why they...haven't done it?
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Mar 7, 2022 04:41
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evilweasel posted:yes it has. all russian "offers" have included "denazification" (replace your current government with one of our choosing) and "demilitiarization" (give up literally anything that would stop us from re-invading) It's like some people simply can't grasp that Ukrainians don't see Russian domination as just an inconvenience that's not worth taking any risk to prevent, but an actual existential threat. Ukranians aren't fighting Russians to get in the cool EU kids club, they're doing it because they see surrender to Russia as having HORRIFYING consequences for them.
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Mar 7, 2022 16:20
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Ukraine isn't fighting to get on the good side of the EU and NATO. They want to be on the good side of the EU and NATO because they think it will help them to get Russia the gently caress out of their country. This is such a baby brain confusion of means vs. ends that it's hard to believe it's sincere when people trot it out. It's just so obviously backwards. It also makes no sense from the point of view of what actually motivates real humans to fight. We can argue over how much support they should actually expect to get, but I'm guessing they aren't totally naive about it and are just trying to get as much as they can, because they think this will help them accomplish the overarching goal of... wait for it... getting Russia the gently caress out out their country.
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Mar 7, 2022 16:55
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Nessus posted:How far can a Javelin shoot? 2km for the normal version, extended range versions also exist apparently.
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Mar 7, 2022 17:46
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Nenonen posted:That, and take a careful look at the technical marvel that is Bradley. The Bradley's supposed awfulness is largely mythical fyi
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Mar 8, 2022 12:54
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radmonger posted:Paper numbers for Russian military are something like 2 million. So in theory they could entirely lose their current forces, invade with double the numbers, entirely lose that second force, and send a third with double the numbers of the second. I mean their active ground forces are like 280,000, with 190,000 or something committed to Ukraine. Their entire BTG doctrine is based on staffing brigades with only enough active soldiers to roll out a reinforced battalion unless they do a mass call-up, which would take forever and has no sign of being attempted yet. Also I imagine spinning up those BTGs to brigade strength would be problematic since they're all stuck in the mud in Ukraine being shot at as we speak. Meanwhile Ukraine went on a total war footing IMMEDIATELY. They have a lead time spinning up their theoretical 900,000 reserves or whatever too, but they have a head start and are...already in Ukraine. The big X factor in Russia's favor was supposed to be the sheer volume of heavy weapons, not in having unlimited RUSSIA STRONK conscripts to human wave steamroll the place. Problem is they all got bogged down instantly an have been getting roasted by Javelin/NLAW ambushes and drone strikes, so that advantage keeps eroding. Maybe more to the point, the Russian army has shown no aptitude for actually bringing this firepower to bear in combined arms operations; everything is piecemeal and uncoordinated so the theoretical firepower just keeps being wasted. The only thing they can mass fire on seems to be civilian buildings, and even then there has been a lot of bizarre scattershot "missile hits random apartment, shells hit playground, nothing adds up to anything but random murder" going on.
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Mar 8, 2022 15:29
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RBA-Wintrow posted:Have they only had heavily scripted exercises under ideal conditions or something? Definitely. As a side note, US exercises I participated in back in the 1990s  at the big maneuver training center in Germany tended to be designed so the bad guys usually murdered everybody and you re-fought them several times. Following those, you'd think the US Army could never beat anybody lol
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Mar 8, 2022 15:34
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KitConstantine posted:Okay, so this thread is long but has a different perspective than most on how the invasion has progressed/will progress. It's thesis seems to be that the successes in the south are less notable than they appear given the superior supply situation the Russians have there. It also goes into some detail about the bad equipment and tactics the Russian army has been displaying. OK, I can decode some of this. SEAD is Suppression of Enemy Air Defense. It means destroying enemy anti-aircraft weapons so your airplanes can fly around freely and blow poo poo up. It's a hard job that usually involves a complicated dance of missiles, artillery, aircraft, jammers, etc., I remember a chart laying it out in the Army back in the 1990s that would make your eyes water. ELINT is electronic intelligence, which is gathering data using electronic sensors. An obvious example is triangulating the location of enemy anti-aircraft radars so you can blow them up, but it also involves stuff like figuring out what kind of equipment is being used by the kinds of radio signals being given off, stuff like that. VKS is the Russian air force basically (really their combined air, space and air/missile defense forces.)
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Mar 9, 2022 21:03
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evilweasel posted:that's not really true It's a very Soviet idea, down to sending penal battalions to clear minefields by walking across them. But it's predicated on having your special "storm"/"guards"/"shock"/etc. units reasonably close at hand to quickly react to the results of your initial feeling out operations. You don't leave them like 1,000km away or some poo poo. Plus of course the Russians have shown no ability to make big operational moves on the map, everyone is just stuck on the axis they started on and can't mutually support each other it seems. There is no "swing the 8th Order of the Red Star Tank Army round to encircle them!" going on here, it's just mud and traffic jams and fuckery all the way down.
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Mar 9, 2022 22:36
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Alchenar posted:Hot take: one of the problems of training your army around a very limited number of tactical maneuvers and not particularly incentivising low level initiative is that operational planning is very effective, but when things start to go wrong or your troops encounter a scenario that's not in the rulebook then things go very wrong very quickly and you have to escalate quite highly to fix the problem. I think the problem is almost worse, it's like they can't coordinate any combination of infantry, armor, artillery and air power at any level when that's been the crux of modern warfare since... late WWI. It's just shelling here, tanks there, bomb random place away from everyone else, infantry stay in their APC by themselves and get roasted by RPGs. Unsupported airborne drops closer to enemy reserves than your own axis of attack all die alone. Bigger and newer air force somehow can't control the airspace or even seem to have much impact in general. Ukraine isn't coasting to a win like the memes make it look like, they are in an incredibly dangerous position, but the Russian military just seems real bad at real war at every level.
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Mar 10, 2022 12:32
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://twitter.com/vesti_news/status/1501839572455641090 I think the lies are bad on purpose as a kind of bullying tactic. Like reality is what they say it is, no matter how stupid, and also gently caress you.
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Mar 10, 2022 14:51
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Russian propaganda is going for “bat coronavirus” experiments set up by America in Ukraine.