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Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer
From some pages back, A friend of mine has at points been a professional DoD China watcher/war-gamer, and his observation is that they don’t do good thinking about situations where they might not just win because they’re China. All their war games and planning is rigged so that China is always the winner. No need to plan for contingencies because glorious China can’t lose, so why plan otherwise? And to reinforce that their military, at least the land forces, are principally trained and designed to suppress their own populace, and not fight external threats.

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Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer

Ajaxify posted:

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/05/javelin-nlaw-operator-in-ukraine-killed-6-russian-armored-vehicles-in-1-day/

One Ukrainian soldier has reportedly fired 9 Javelins since the beginning of the war, scoring 8 kills and 1 damaging hit; 6 of the kills happening on the same day. Guy deserves a medal.

Time’s man of the year this year really should be ‘Dude with a tube’.

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer

Comrade Blyatlov posted:

That's a ship even I wouldn't touch.

I wonder if at this point its primary purpose is to just be a long term graft fountain. Lots of dacha money to be siphoned off the ship in forever repairs.

Didn’t India/China buy/inherit some of her sisters? Did they do extensive modernization to them?

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer

bees everywhere posted:

Weren't the Russians expecting a lot more help from Ukrainian collaborators in the beginning? I recall hearing about how they were planning something similar to how the ANSF surrendered to the Taliban but then none of it actually came to fruition. They were expecting to mostly skip the fighting part and go straight to occupation but then everything went to poo poo immediately because it turned out the Ukrainians actually brought their guns to the gun fight.

The FSB spent a ton of cash to bribe people and thought that their efforts would result in a lot of friendly support, turns out that most of them just took the cash and told them what they wanted to hear. And then the FSB told the guy up top what he wanted to hear.

I wonder even now how much accurate info gets to the top about the current state or the war.

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer
All on the same day news services were banned from covering anything but neutral statements by Prigozhin. Along with a government backed propaganda campaign against him.

https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/1629127526151819265?s=46&t=Pguy6cGMKpF6NFMYnUlnEQ

I’d love for someone to lay out a Wagner captures Bakhmut, now what? Does it mean much or does the fighting just move to a new Bakhmut a couple miles west?

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer
More MoD / Wagner logistics swiping.

https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/1630129914119585794?s=46&t=3mwoKi3W2bdEdc1jiCCj5Q

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer

zone posted:

At this point, even seeing the two armies (Wagner and RU professional army) coming openly to blows like the Chechens and Buryats from the early days of the invasion doesn't seem unlikely.

I still wonder if in the end Russia keeps some of its gains if Wager goes Syrian civil war and tries to carve out the Peoples Republic of Wagerneria.

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer

zone posted:

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1630319952698695681
Intelligence boss Budanov believes that China will stay out of the war and not supply Russia with anything it desperately needs, like heavy weapons or any of a number of myriad things like rocket propellants.

I feel like in the end China won't directly engage like this other than bluster. I expect the people at the top are acutely aware that their economy is very vulnerable to sanctions regimes. They import tremendous amounts of raw materials to fuel their export economy, along with massive amounts of food. i think that they have a lot of the same social contact that Russia had (We'll let you have a comfortable middle class, just don't ask what the government is doing) along the lines of we'll uplift you out of poverty and provide jobs in the export sector as long as you obey. If something happens and those jobs collapse, it's going to be bad times. Their buddy Putin can't in any shape or form make up for the loss of Western business.

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer
Re: when do the muskets come out.

If some Twitter stuff I saw today is true they’ve already hit the bottom of the tech tree in some places. There was some stills and video of some Russian soldiers who got dead and they were armed with sticks.

It’s like there’s always going to be new low points no matter how low it already got. I’m trying to picture the scenario where the commander orders some poor bastards to go assault that AFU position and just hands them a 3 foot piece of wood and wishes them luck. Not a sharp one or even one with a sharp rock tied to it.

Would sticks / rocks be the bottom or would fists be level 0?

Oscar Wilde Bunch fucked around with this message at 06:32 on Mar 14, 2023

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer

bird food bathtub posted:

Oh they'll pay, just not cash. Wages would probably be hard to report though I don't think tax forms have a space for "Number of bullets I shot in to the back of my own head."

$15 mil, or the fish brick equivalent.

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer

Der Kyhe posted:

Large part of what is considered western world and manufacturing industry is still running on DOS, CP/M and similarly ancient stuff. Almost all corporate data centers, and old systems, have that mythical "blinking box" which no-one knows what it does and why it exists, but you aren't allowed to even intensively stare at it because last time it stopped blinking people died and/or the stock dropped like a stone, or the production line was dead in the water for several hours until the box started to blink again. There is actually a niche market for people sufficiently skilled in programming with 50's, 60's and 70's stuff like Fortran or Pascal in the legacy maintenance cycles. I wish I was kidding but I am not.

But obviously you shouldn't build new stuff on top of that stuff.

I used to general IT contracting work and we had a customer 10ish years ago that made high precision F1 transmissions and the entire manufacturing line was still running off of some IBM thing that looked like a giant chest fridge other than the comically large vertical floppy drive slot. Like something out of 40k you pray to the machine spirit, anoint yourself in oil, and drop the 8 inch floppy in and hit the button that makes all the machines come alive. I asked the owner and it's because the line is all custom stuff and there's no comparable modern controller he could slot in. To get rid of the flopster he'd have to scrap and re-buy the whole manufacturing line.

Something like 90% of the F500 have COBOL poo poo running somewhere. As a counter to the finicky blinking lights, even after the sun swallows the Earth and explodes, there's still going to be some 70's era IBM big iron floating in space because it just won't stop running.

Oscar Wilde Bunch fucked around with this message at 21:14 on Mar 17, 2023

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer

Herstory Begins Now posted:

i want to know the record for tallest non-craned tank stack now

With all the ones they blew up, when the war's over they could package 10 to a box and sell it as a children's game.

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer
In for OHSA chat. I was involved for a time with the WR Grace trial back in the early ‘00’s. Lots of other interesting stuff to be learned outside of workplace safety (the feds knew asbestos was no beuno and didn’t bother to tell anyone for like a decade, the fastest way to lose a case is for a federal judge to find out the ADA was giving gifts and wining and dining their lead prosecution witness)

There was a large amount of time spent before and during trial going over how agonizingly difficult it was to get any of those 50-70’s era miners to take any precautions whatsoever.

Please wear PPE: Nope
Please don’t wear your mining clothes home: No can do boss
I’m begging you, take a shower before you go home: real men don’t bathe
Don’t smoke while working: How bout I smoke this cig while snorting a line of vermiculite?

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer
Andrew Johnson was the worst president from the ‘lasting impact on the US’ perspective I think. I wonder what we’d be like if you rolled straight from Lincoln to Grant and kept Congress in line.

All the losses of enfranchisement, and political participation. Imagine if the Klan never was allowed to get off the ground, the Jim Crow era never happened. Maybe they would have in some form, but I think we’d be way ahead of where we are today if that shitbag was never President.

Reminds me that I wish I could get one of my friends who hit his 20 with 99/100% disability this year an operation useless dirt shirt.

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer
Somewhere in a warehouse or depot the THEL cracks a smile.

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer
What’s the punishment if he’s active duty?

Good to see it’s a classic narcissist moron instead of a ultra HSLD spy op.

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer
Make them drone planes for a 1 way journey. Let me go go out doing what they were bread for.

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer
German dubbed Steve Urkel was certainly a thing.

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer

Jimmy Smuts posted:

I tend to stay away from making fun of one's looks, as I myself have been on the hitting end of such statements growing up, and it sucked. But Prigozhin is one ugly motherfucker, he reminds me of Nosferatu.
I wonder if that's intentional.

I always think he’s about 6 stop motion frames from his face melting off like the end of Raiders. Especially when he has a neutral deadpan expression, it just looks like the front of his face is going to drip off. Or he’s like the Red Skull in reality but his flesh mask is 2 sizes too big.

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer

Herstory Begins Now posted:

Poverty, yes, particularly in the most rural areas. estimates are 20-25% iirc. it's not entirely poverty either, a lot of it is just places being very remote. Still, it is 100% solvable if Russia cared to make it a priority.

And the challenge that a lot of those very remote areas are also built on tundra/permafrost.

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer

Tiny Timbs posted:

I think we finally found the successor to Baghdad Bob

He needs a catchy name.

Floodwater Fred?

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer

CommieGIR posted:

Yeah ZNPP has enough water in its on prem coolant pool to keep the cold reactors cold and feed the spent fuel pools. It should be fine barring any Russian dumbassery.

If UKR starts advancing in the area I wouldn't put it past them to blow that too.

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer

Neophyte posted:

liar liar Pantsir can't acquire

Missile sensors sold for fishbrick/dacha money.

How many export partners are looking at their Russian gear wondering if there’s a return policy now?

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer

PurpleXVI posted:

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1672312988445949952

After posting several angry videos which poo poo-talked everyone in the Russian government and straight up admitted that the Ukrainians didn't provoke the "special military operation," Prigozhin now claims that his camps have come under artillery attack from Russian troops.

I want this to be real so badly.



Starting to feel like the last season of Deep Space Nine. Damar being played by Prigozhin.

Re: India, as I understood it, Russia is selling oil to India at a loss as India is happily paying EU sanction prices. So I don’t know what’s worse for Russia, extracting it and selling at a loss or not extracting at all and not selling.

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer

Kesper North posted:

seems like a pretty big deal that the larger Rosgvardia force let Wagner by untouched

Probably a lot of ‘I’m not getting paid enough for this poo poo’ moments.

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer
What’s the odds that all the canned sunshine in those depots actually has modern PALs and that some don’t have mechanical locks from the 60’s.

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer
It proves that any aspiring thug with some mass of support can push Putin around to the point of affecting outcomes at the highest levels of government and get away with it. It tells his keys to power that maybe he’s not the only game in town. It tells people that the populace isn’t going to stick their necks out for Putin. It proves to the people that think they’re his long-standing friends that he’ll chuck them under the buss when pressed by some upstart.

Oscar Wilde Bunch fucked around with this message at 19:31 on Jun 25, 2023

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer

windshipper posted:

No idea on the source, but there’s this:

Shotgun under house arrest by FSB.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1673171204209795072?t=yV-vO6x7zSmc2SeNGK3P2w&s=19

I’m shocked! Shocked, to find graft going on this establishment.

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer

I feel like offering 'go home' is a big mistake. I bet there's going to be a lot of people selecting that option. Also what's the average mobik think when they see doing an insurrection is a ticket home with no consequence?

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer
Death squad might want to go home too.

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer

Computer viking posted:

I want a cast concrete mural with a HIMARS, M270, and like ten different artillery systems.

A soldier with an NLAW and a Javelin for fists. Or a mural in the renaissance style with drones dropping grenades instead of cherubs.

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer

bulletsponge13 posted:

Color me corrected. 🙂

I admittedly have less faith in the updating, upgrading, and upkeeping of the Russian Nuclear forces, but that is a nice reassurance.

It’s always worth noting that Putin allows/encourages the Russia mob to extort the Russian missile forces for protection money.

Imagine sitting in your Sarmat bunker or whatever and there’s a knock at the door and some mobster walks in, takes some of your poo poo and tells you he’ll be back next week and you better have his money.

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer
https://twitter.com/juliadavisnews/status/1679575829079027712?s=46

Russia is such a bizarre place.

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer

Dandywalken posted:

At least some are. Assuming those at a distance probably arent.

I’d like to know what types of kills they ended up getting. Just a mission kill and they got recovered and can be repaired or whatever the NATO equivalent of the turret toss is.

Also I’d expect there’s lots of people the world over trying to figure out some sort of hard kill counter measures you could slap on these things. I’be got no data in my brain about how you’d even start. What do tank kill capable drones look like to radar?

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer

orange juche posted:

Jihad Jeeps from Battlefield 3 except drones

A good reply

https://twitter.com/jasonsnitker/status/1683649590241755140?s=46

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer

Alchenar posted:

The real thorny issue with Iran is that negotiating to silo the nuclear proliferation issue and the regional destabilisation issue was a 'best of a bad situation' solution rather than one anyone actually liked.

Anyway on the worlds worst army to be in:

https://twitter.com/intermarium24/status/1689732601026609152

It's like a can of coconut milk without any of the coconut part, just the water.

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer
What’s the most recent near peer-ish one? India/Pakistan in the 70’s?

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer

A.o.D. posted:

If Australia wanted nukes, they could have them and it'd basically be impossible to stop them. They can manufacture their own centrifuges, and have the worlds 4th largest Uranium reserves. There's enough GDP, industrial, and scientific know how to get a program up and running and seen to completion in a moderately short time. It wouldn't be a sprint program, but I'm confident they could do it faster than NK did. As for delivery systems, that'd probably take longer. They don't have a domestic space or rocketry program that I'm aware of, and I don't know much about AUS aircraft manufacturing capability.

If they can miniaturize it to the point you could load a warhead on a canvas wing ultralight, or a light duty seaplane, they've got it covered. Anything that doesn't use a propeller, not so much. I watch a lot of Scott Manley and I think they're supposed to have their very first domestic launch this year. Didn't some of the American MIC set up shop there recently to make cruise missiles?

Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer

Mederlock posted:

Gotte dang that's insane. This war is crazy, and there's a certain poetic justice in Ukraine developing a long range attack drone out of cardboard that's just as if not more effective than the pseudo-slave labour produced Shaheds that Russia is now making.

The Russians imported technology from Iran and spent many Rubles setting up factories
The Ukrainians used recycled Amazon packages

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Oscar Wilde Bunch
Jun 12, 2012

Grimey Drawer
Cope………tires?

https://twitter.com/tatarigami_ua/status/1698302027552436366?s=46

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